1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market rebounded on Wednesday, with the technology sector leading the rise and consumer stocks experiencing a correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, but the basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals stopped rising and slightly corrected at high levels due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the resilience of the US economy, and the rebound of the US dollar [9]. - The shipping index (European line) EC showed a volatile trend. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, copper prices rose rapidly due to supply concerns, while the price of alumina was in a state of wide - range bottom - level oscillation with limited downward space [12][17]. - The prices of black metals were also volatile. Steel prices continued to oscillate, and the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke were affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [41][44][47]. - The prices of agricultural products showed different trends. The purchase of Argentine soybeans by China weakened the expected supply gap of domestic meal products, while the price of live pigs was stable in supply and demand and difficult to improve before the National Day [55][58]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, the A - share market opened lower and then oscillated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%. The technology sector led the rise, while consumer stocks corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, with IF2512 and IH2512 rising 1.69% and 0.94% respectively, and IC2512 and IM2512 rising 3.90% and 3.21% respectively. The basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to oscillation. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 at a light position when the index corrects to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The yields of major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - **Funding Situation**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. However, after the market, the central bank announced that it would conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended that investors mainly conduct range operations on a single - side strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: On September 24, the US announced a trade agreement with the EU and a support plan for Argentina, which eased the risk of asset selling in Argentina and reduced the risk - aversion sentiment. The US new home sales increased significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded. International gold prices ended a three - day rising streak, falling 0.74% to $3736.07 per ounce, and international silver prices fell slightly by 0.2% to $43.89 per ounce [7][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of September 22, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next six weeks were in a certain range. For example, Maersk's quotation was $840 - 1279/FEU and $1400 - 2038/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Index**: As of September 22, the SCFIS European line index was 1254.92 points, a week - on - week decrease of 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9% to $1052/TEU [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 24, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The eurozone's composite PMI in August was 51, and the US manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures market oscillated. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in an oscillating market and pay attention to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 24, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 80045 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 80030 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [13]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident continued to cause supply concerns. Freeport announced force majeure, and it is expected that the mine will not return to its pre - accident production level until 2027. The production of domestic electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline month - on - month [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the decline in copper prices, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, domestic social inventories decreased, and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply concern of global copper mines supported the copper price. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 24, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [17]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade alumina increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina decreased week - on - week, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts decreased compared with the previous week [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected that the main contract will oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 24, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20680 yuan/ton, and the average premium of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased slightly [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, and the orders of profile enterprises improved, with the operating rates of various sectors remaining stable or increasing [20]. - **Inventory**: There was a positive signal in inventory. On September 24, the daily inventory of three - location aluminum ingots decreased by 0.85 tons, and the expectation of an approaching inventory inflection point was enhanced [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Although there is uncertainty at the macro level, the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is expected that the short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract referring to the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [21]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc, Tin, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate) - **Zinc**: The price of zinc showed an oscillating trend. The supply was expected to be loose, and the upward space was limited. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [28]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply side provided support. The tin price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [29][32]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated upwards. The output of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand was stable. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 119000 - 124000 yuan/ton [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel oscillated slightly upwards. The supply pressure existed, and the demand in the peak season was not significantly released. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract price was expected to oscillate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [41]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable, with rebar remaining stable and hot - rolled coil rising slightly [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost had support, and the profit of steel decreased from a high level. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - **Supply**: The output of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to August, and the output of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil remained at a high level [42]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year from January to August, and the export of steel maintained a high level [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased, and it was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [43]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: Steel prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. It was recommended to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder showed a slight change, and the futures price of iron ore oscillated [44]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, while the steel mill profitability rate decreased slightly [44]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [45]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: The iron ore market was in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It was recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures oscillated and rebounded. The spot price of domestic coking coal was strong, and the price of Mongolian coal rose [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines increased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal decreased [48][49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to rise, the coking operation rate remained stable, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [50]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [51]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The second - round price cut of coke by steel mills was implemented, and some coking enterprises began to raise prices [52][54]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [53]. - **Supply**: The daily output of coke of independent coking plants and steel mills remained stable [53]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [54]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports increased [54]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The spot price of domestic soybean meal showed mixed trends, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [55]. - **Fundamentals**: China purchased at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans after Argentina取消谷物和油籽出口关税. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was faster than in previous years [55][56]. - **Outlook**: The price of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The supply of domestic soybean meal was abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal was expected to continue to weaken [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated. The national average price was 12.65 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm of retail farmers and secondary fattening farmers to slaughter increased [58]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of live pigs were stable, and the price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to oscillate and adjust [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia was generally weak, while the price in North China and the Huang - Huai region was partially strong. The port price decreased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in the four northern ports decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume also decreased [60]. - **Outlook**: The corn price was expected to oscillate weakly under the bearish expectation [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 24 saw more gains than losses, with the glass main contract rising over 4% and fuel oil main contract increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1456.69 points, up 9.04 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Glass Industry Insights - The glass main contract experienced a significant increase, with a peak rise of nearly 8% during the trading session, ultimately closing with a 4.74% gain [2] - Market sentiment was driven by rumors of a meeting among glass enterprises and the issuance of a growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry by multiple government departments [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the glass industry is still at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with weak demand and a need for capacity reduction to address oversupply [2] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic oil-related products rose across the board, with SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts recording gains of over 1% and 3%, respectively [3] - Concerns over global supply tightening were heightened by recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential diesel export bans by the Russian government [3] - Short-term price trends for fuel oil are expected to remain strong due to cost support and recovering demand, although a potential decline in purchasing sentiment is anticipated post-holiday [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - The shipping European line saw a rise, with the main contract increasing over 2% after peaking at over 6% during the session [4] - Oilseed and oil products remained weak, with the main contracts for soybean meal and oil experiencing slight declines, while palm oil showed a small increase due to tightening supply expectations [5][6] - Palm oil prices may rise by approximately 15% as the seasonal high production cycle ends, and potential shortages could arise if Indonesia implements specific policies [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising on Wednesday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the rubber market may be dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and the contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, strengthening in oscillation, and slightly rising on Wednesday. Constrained by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, the contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, rising in oscillation, and slightly increasing on Wednesday. Due to geopolitical risks such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential US tariffs on Russia, the contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. In the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 30,200 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58% [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 487,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 340,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 94,200 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [13]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a 19.13% decrease from the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an 8.94% increase from the August average [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | - 950 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,358 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 88 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 454.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 484.3 yuan/barrel | +11.2 yuan/barrel | - 29.7 yuan/barrel | - 11.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions a chart of rubber basis, but no specific analysis is provided [16]. - Methanol: The report mentions relevant charts but no specific analysis is provided [28]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions relevant charts but no specific analysis is provided [41].

黄金方面：今年黄金已上涨超44%，各国央行持续增购黄金，欧洲央行的调查数据显示，全球央行黄金 储备总量达到3.6万吨。近三年来，全球央行每年增持黄金超过1000吨，是过去十年平均水平的两倍。 本周美联储官员密集发表讲话，芝加哥联储主席格尔斯比表示，美国经济面临经济增长放缓和劳动力市 场疲软的双重压力，在降息的问题上需要保持谨慎。利率可以逐步的下调，但通胀仍高于目标，不宜激 进地降息。 来源：智昇财论 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，近日多位美联储官员发表讲话，一部分的表述鹰派，对通胀表示担 忧，降息持谨慎态度；另一部分则呼吁降息，美联储内部分歧加大。 技术面：黄金周线月线多头趋势，不断刷新历史高点。小时图来看，黄金昨日（9月23日）晚间开始回 落，在3755美元一线获得支撑，日内继续上涨的概率大，日内上方可以先看向高点3790美元一线。 原油方面：近期，欧洲正在加大对俄罗斯能源出口的制裁，包括出口价格的下调以及通过法案提前一年 结束购买俄罗斯能源。同时，特朗普敦促欧洲尽快地停止购买俄罗斯能源，并试图切断其主要资金来 源，对印度的采购行为征收50%的关税。 今天凌晨，美国至9月19日当周API原油库存数据，录得 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report doesn't provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, the mid - term outlook for most energy and chemical products is "shock - weakening", with a few in "shock" status [3][6][8][11][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and the supply pressure on crude oil continues. The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the market is worried about Russia's crude oil supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the later period will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases [1][6]. - Most chemical trade data shows that imports of most varieties have declined year - on - year, while imports of methanol, PX, and pure benzene have increased. Exports of PVC, PE, PP, and styrene have performed well. The chemical chain valuation has been slightly compressed recently, and the rebound of crude oil may trigger the replenishment demand of the industrial chain, leading to the stabilization of chemical product prices [2]. - The overall energy and chemical industry will continue the pattern of shock and consolidation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Overnight oil prices rebounded. Geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation are still fermenting, supporting the bottom of the range. API data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases in the later period. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical disturbances [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has declined rapidly. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices but limited increase in asphalt futures prices and compressed profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has decreased rapidly, and the planned asphalt production in October has increased by 19% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances drive the sharp rise of fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in fuel oil futures prices. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate due to factors such as the increase in import tariffs, weak gasoline in the US, and low refinery operating rates. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical escalation will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the pressure level of 3500 is effective in the short term. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure has increased, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates following crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The increase in external procurement in the inland area boosts the methanol futures price to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price fluctuated on September 23. The increase in the external procurement demand of some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi has supported the price. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the port inventory pressure is still large in the near - term. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdown in the far - term, some funds still bet at low prices. - **Outlook**: Short - term shock [21]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the futures price continues to be under pressure along the cost line. - **Main Logic**: On September 23, the daily production and operating rate on the supply side remained high, the demand side lacked strong support, and the export expectation was weakening. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of supply and demand remain loose. Before the festival, the demand is mainly for order collection, and the downstream transactions are moderately promoted. It is expected to fluctuate and wait for other positive factors [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream demand support is weak, and the supply - demand margin weakens. - **Main Logic**: The cost side has no obvious support, and the commodity atmosphere is not good. The overall supply remains high, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the later period. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates weakly, looking for support at the lower level [15][16]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand margin weakens, the demand is lower than expected, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate at a low level, and the atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector is not good. The supply remains high, the downstream demand is still weak, and the processing fee is still under pressure. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - **Main Logic**: The cost side fluctuates weakly, and the support is insufficient. The supply maintenance increases, but it still cannot effectively suppress market liquidity. The basis is still weak, and the processing fee has not improved significantly. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate and weaken, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply is stable, the downstream production and sales are tepid, and the processing fee is firm. - **Outlook**: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and it fluctuates weakly in the short term [18][19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The processing fee runs stably, and attention should be paid to contract negotiations. - **Main Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials weakens, and the absolute price of bottle - chips fluctuates and declines. The processing fee is relatively firm, and attention should be paid to the speculative replenishment demand of downstream at low prices. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance rate increases, and PP should pay attention to the support strength at the previous low. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of PP are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term shock - weakening [26][27]. 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following PP, and PL fluctuates and declines in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Traders in the market are generally bearish on the future market. Affected by the psychology of "buying on rising, not on falling", downstream pre - festival inventory - building willingness is general, and the market trading is dull. - **Outlook**: PL fluctuates weakly in the short term [27]. 3.1.14 Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream transactions still increase, and plastic fluctuates and declines. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - **Outlook**: The fundamental support is limited, and it fluctuates in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The future market expectation is still pessimistic, and pure benzene returns to decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased, and downstream had certain replenishment demand. However, after the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. Pure benzene is difficult to destock before the end of the year, and the inventory accumulation is the most obvious in October. - **Outlook**: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the pattern of pure benzene will return to the situation of oversupply and inventory accumulation [13][14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and styrene resumes decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. After the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is the high inventory of upstream and downstream, which is difficult to destock. The cost side of pure benzene also drags down the styrene price. - **Outlook**: The profit has reached a low level, and one can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [14][15]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and PVC should be cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, but the dynamic cost has increased, and the market sentiment may recover. - **Outlook**: PVC fluctuates, with pressure from the medium - and long - term fundamentals and support from the increase in dynamic cost and the recovery of market sentiment [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The expectation is strong, but the reality is weak, and the market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of caustic soda still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The support comes from the strong expectation of caustic soda inventory - building for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It fluctuates in the medium - and long - term. The spot price is weakly stable before the festival, and the market may rebound due to the strong inventory - building expectation for alumina production in Q4. If the inventory - building expectation is realized after the festival, the market may return to the weak reality [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and change values [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values and change values [33]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads of different categories are presented, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with the latest values and change values [34]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined on September 23, 2025, with declines of 0.73%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively [276]. - **Energy Index**: On September 23, 2025, the energy index was 1179.87, with a daily decline of 1.64%, a decline of 4.31% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.01% in the past month, and a decline of 3.91% since the beginning of the year [278].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin - LLDPE and PP: Recently, PP production has declined due to significant losses in PDH and externally - sourced propylene routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and decreased inventory. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually rising. This week, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased, and there are more import offers from North America. Currently, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure on the 01 contract, which limits the upside space [2]. Methanol - The market is trading high inventory and fast loading in Iran. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, market sentiment has deteriorated, prices have weakened, and the basis has slightly weakened. In terms of supply and demand, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports prices. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, demand is weak. Port arrivals are still high, inventory accumulation is significant, and trading has weakened. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are neutral, MTO profits are strengthening, and traditional downstream profits are slightly strengthening, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating inventory significantly, and the import volume in September remains high. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expected overseas gas restriction in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Recently, some pure benzene devices have restarted or produced products, and some maintenance plans have been postponed, so the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are still in a loss state, and some second - tier downstream products have high inventory. In September and October, both planned and unplanned production cuts in downstream styrene devices have reduced the demand support. The supply - demand expectation for pure benzene in September is still relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors. - Styrene: Driven by the peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, the overall demand for styrene downstream is okay, but the increase is limited. On the supply side, under the pressure of inventory and industry profits, more devices have shut down or reduced production. Some devices have reduced production due to accidents, and the export expectation of styrene has increased due to overseas device maintenance, so the supply is expected to decrease. Port inventory has accumulated, which may put pressure on the styrene price. In the short term, styrene may be affected by the oil price, geopolitical situation, and the alleviation of concerns about marginal supply increase [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that the market's concerns about the current supply surplus have eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has resurfaced. Specifically, the oil export agreement of the Iraqi Kurds has reached a deadlock, eliminating about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, which is the key trigger for the rebound after the previous continuous decline in oil prices and also provides support for the near - month spread. At the same time, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and the tough stance of NATO have magnified the supply interruption risk of refined oil products, pushed up the cracking spread, and affected the oil price from the sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although the IEA report and other macro - factors still point to a supply surplus, in the short term, geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential inventory increase. In the short term, oil prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to mainly conduct high - selling and low - buying operations, with the operating range of WTI at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after the volatility increases [21][22]. Urea - The urea futures price has been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains at a high level of over 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing the supply pressure. At the same time, agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in the compound fertilizer start - up rate. Although there are some export port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. The lack of market confidence and continuous inventory accumulation further suppress the futures price, and there is a lack of substantial positive driving factors [25]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX: Recently, the short - process capacity utilization at home and abroad has increased, and the maintenance of some domestic PX devices has been postponed. In addition, multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The supply - demand expectation for PX in the fourth quarter is further weakened. However, it may be supported by oil prices in the short term. - PTA: Due to the continuously low processing fees of PTA, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The spot basis has been continuously weak. In terms of absolute price, it is affected by the situation in Ukraine's attack on Russian oil facilities. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening. In the short term, the import expectation in September is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand expectation for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, mainly due to the start - up of new devices and the seasonal decline in demand in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, the short - fiber supply has remained at a high level. On the demand side, although it is the peak season, new orders are limited, and the peak season this year is not very prosperous. The short - fiber price has support at the low level, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - chip: Recently, some bottle - chip devices have restarted while some have shut down, and the overall production reduction intensity remains basically unchanged. With the downstream's low - price replenishment demand, the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - chip are supported, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction of bottle - chip devices will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation [28]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic Soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. This week, the supply has increased, and the start - up rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, the continuous decline in domestic and overseas alumina prices has continuously narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, and the support for the spot price is weak. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious downstream purchasing, the inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, the enterprises under maintenance and load - reduction have not resumed, the supply is tight, and the non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid demand, so the inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the short - term local caustic soda inventory needs time to be released. With the current high supply and the poor unloading of the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. It was previously recommended to take short positions, and the short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many enterprises will end their maintenance next week, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the start - up rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices and have average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw material calcium carbide continues to rise, and the ethylene price remains stable, providing bottom - line support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [36]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, L2601 and L2509 closed down 0.35% and 0.50% respectively; PP2601 and PP2509 closed down 0.45% and 0.35% respectively. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, and the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. The spot price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.44%, and the spot price of North China LDPE film decreased by 0.28% [2]. - **Start - up Rates**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. The PP device start - up rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, the PP powder start - up rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 (unit not specified), and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 (unit not specified), and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, MA2601 closed down 0.21%, MA2509 closed up 0.17%, the MA91 spread increased by 60.00%, the太仓 basis decreased by 16.37%, the spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 0.73%, the spot price of Luoyang, Henan decreased by 0.22%, and the spot price of Taicang port decreased by 0.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8% [4]. - **Start - up Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%, the overseas enterprise start - up rate in Shanghai decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 13.46% to 116%, the downstream acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3%, and the downstream MTBE start - up rate increased by 1.37% to 63.8% [4][5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2% to 63.41 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4% to 596 dollars/ton, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged at 845 dollars/ton, CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7% to 723 dollars/ton, the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased by 5.6% to 125 dollars/ton, and the spread between ethylene and naphtha decreased by 1.0% to 247 dollars/ton [9]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 1.0% to 6860 dollars/ton, EB2511 futures decreased by 0.8% to 6870 dollars/ton, the EB basis (10) increased by 33.3% to 24 dollars/ton, the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 112.5% to - 34 dollars/ton, the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 20.3% to - 337 dollars/ton, and the EB cash flow (integrated) decreased by 19.0% to - 552 dollars/ton [9]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol decreased by 7.6% to - 272 dollars/ton, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) decreased by 4.7% to - 1885 dollars/ton, the cash flow of aniline increased by 14.0% to 514 dollars/ton, the EPS cash flow decreased by 13.6% to 190 dollars/ton, the PS cash flow decreased by 100.0% to - 60 dollars/ton, and the ABS cash flow increased by 247.8% to 34 dollars/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 million tons [10]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rates**: The domestic pure benzene start - up rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%, the phenol start - up rate increased by 3.0% to 71.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 2.8% to 88.7%, the aniline start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 72.0%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 1.1% to 61.2%, the downstream EPS start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 61.7%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 69.8% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, compared with September 23, Brent crude oil increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.54% to 63.75 dollars/barrel, SC crude oil decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 dollars/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82% to 1.37 dollars, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65% to 0.72 dollars, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% to 1.80 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 dollars, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 dollars, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars, the RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94% to 7.61 dollars, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40% to - 0.76 dollars, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% to 15.00 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spread of US gasoline increased by 1.10% to 20.59 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of European gasoline increased by 1.15% to 18.86 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore gasoline increased by 6.11% to 11.12 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US diesel increased by 0.14% to 33.19 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore diesel increased by 0.86% to 18.74 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US jet fuel decreased by 8.80% to 24.13 dollars/barrel, and the cracking spread of Singapore jet fuel increased by 0.85% to 17.74 dollars/barrel [21]. Urea - **Prices**: The synthetic ammonia (Shandong) price increased by 0.91% to 2220 dollars/ton. The spot prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangdong decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, and 0.56% respectively [25]. - **Spreads**: The Shandong - Henan spread decreased by 10 dollars to - 10 dollars/ton, the Guangdong - Henan spread decreased by 6% to 160 dollars/ton, the Shandong basis decreased by 20.00% to - 48 dollars/ton [25]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine (Shandong), compound fertilizer

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Recent PP production decline due to losses in PDH and external propylene routes, leading to unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction. PE maintenance has reached a peak, with increasing开工 and de - stocking of mid - upstream inventory this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and future supply rhythm and import offers need attention. Currently, the 01 contract faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, limiting upward space [2]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, weakening market sentiment and prices, with a slight weakening of the basis. On the supply - demand side, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. Port arrivals are still high, with large inventory accumulation and weakening transactions. Overall valuation is neutral. The market is oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [4]. Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: Recently, some plants have restarted or produced products, and maintenance plans have been postponed, keeping supply at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There are planned and unplanned production cuts in styrene plants from September to October, weakening demand support. The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in September remains loose, with weak price drivers. In the short term, price trends are affected by geopolitical and macro factors. - Styrene: Driven by peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, overall demand is okay but with limited growth. On the supply side, due to inventory and profit pressure, more plants have stopped or reduced production, and some have cut production due to accidents. With overseas plant maintenance, styrene export expectations have increased, reducing supply expectations. Port inventory has accumulated, pressuring styrene prices. In the short term, styrene may be affected by oil - price geopolitical situations and reduced concerns about supply increments. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for EB11 and widening the EB11 - BZ11 spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that market concerns about immediate supply surplus have eased, and geopolitical risk premiums have resurfaced. Specifically, the deadlock in the oil - export agreement in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has dispelled the expectation of about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, triggering a key rebound after the previous oil - price decline and supporting the near - month spread. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and NATO's tough stance have increased the risk of supply disruption of Russian refined products such as diesel, pushing up the crack spread and supporting crude oil from both sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although macro - level reports such as those from the International Energy Agency still point to a loose supply situation, short - term geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential increases in US crude - oil inventory. In the short term, oil prices are expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to conduct band - trading on a single - side basis, with the WTI trading range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after volatility increases [32]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices have been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains above 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing supply pressure. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in compound - fertilizer plant开工. Although there are some export - port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. Market confidence is lacking, and continuous inventory accumulation further suppresses the futures price, lacking substantial positive drivers [37]. Polyester Industry - PX: Recent increases in PX supply are obvious due to the capacity increase from short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of maintenance of some domestic PX plants. On the demand side, due to low PTA processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken further, with an expected compression of the PXN spread. In terms of absolute price, the attack on Russian oil - distribution facilities by Ukraine has boosted short - term oil prices, which may support PX in the short term. Strategies include short - term long - positions on PX11 or short - selling on price rebounds. - PTA: Due to low processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans, reducing supply expectations. However, the peak - season performance of downstream industries is average, and the spot basis of PTA has been weakly running. In terms of absolute price, short - term oil - price increases may support PTA. Strategies include short - term long - positions or short - selling on price rebounds for TA, and a rolling reverse - spread strategy for TA1 - 5. - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, ethylene - glycol imports in September are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decrease this month, keeping port inventory at a low level. However, the terminal market is currently weak, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, as the Yulong Petrochemical plant has increased its load to 60% - 70%, the Satellite Petrochemical plant will restart in October, and demand will decline seasonally in the fourth quarter. Ethylene glycol will enter an inventory - accumulation phase, facing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of plant commissioning and restart. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 on price increases and a reverse - spread strategy for EG1 - 5. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, short - fiber supply has remained high. On the demand side, although it is the peak - season of "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream industries have restocking demand before the National Day, new orders for gray fabrics are limited, and this year's peak - season performance is average. Short - fiber prices are supported at low levels, but the upward - rebound driving force is weak, and the price movement follows raw - material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Recently, some bottle - grade polyester chip plants have restarted while others have stopped production, with overall production capacity remaining basically unchanged. As the price has dropped to the lowest level of the year and there is rigid restocking demand before the National Day, downstream industries and traders are replenishing inventory at low prices, supporting the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips and reducing inventory. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose. PR prices follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the upward space of the processing fee is limited. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more production cuts in bottle - grade polyester chip plants and the downstream follow - up situation. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee of the PR main - contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [40][41]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. Supply has increased this week, and the开工 rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, recent continuous declines in domestic and overseas alumina prices have narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and cautious downstream purchasing, inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, enterprises with maintenance and load - reduction devices have not yet resumed, resulting in tight supply. Non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid need, and inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, it will take time to release short - term local caustic - soda inventory. With the current high - level supply and poor sales in the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. Previously, short - selling was recommended, and short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many plants will end maintenance next week, with expected production increases. On the demand side, the开工 rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed inventory replenishment, being resistant to high prices and having average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw - material calcium carbide has been rising, and the ethylene price has remained stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined on September 23 compared to September 22. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, while that of PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as a 0.28% decline in the price of North China LDPE film stock [2]. - **开工 and Inventory**: PE plant开工 rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 tons. PP plant开工 rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, while PP powder开工 rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%. Downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 tons, and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 tons [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, MA2601 futures price decreased by 0.21%, and MA2509 increased by 0.17%. The MA91 spread decreased by 60.00%. Spot prices of different regions showed different changes, such as a 0.73% increase in the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot and a 0.44% decrease in the price of Taicang port spot [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048 tons, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8 tons [4]. - **开工 Rates**: The domestic upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 72.66%, and the overseas upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%. The downstream external - MTO device开工 rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08%, while the fatty - acid开工 rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3% [4]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6%, and WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2%. CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4%, while CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%. The pure - benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.6%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The latest styrene spot price in East China decreased by 1.0%. EB2510, EB2511 futures prices also declined. The EB basis (10) increased by 33.3%, and the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 112.5%. EB non - integrated and integrated cash flows both decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 tons from September 15 to September 22, while styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 tons [12]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian pure - benzene开工 rate remained unchanged at 79.0%. The domestic pure - benzene开工 rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, while the domestic hydrogenated - benzene开工 rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%. The styrene开工 rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4% [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, Brent increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI decreased by 0.54% to 63.15 dollars/barrel, and SC decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82%, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65%, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% [32]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars/ton. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94%, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40%, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% [32]. - **Refined - Product Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined products showed different changes. For example, the US gasoline crack spread increased by 1.10%, while the European diesel crack spread decreased by 0.90% [32]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, the 01 - contract futures price of urea decreased by 0.12%, and the 05 - contract remained unchanged. The price difference between the 01 - contract and 05 - contract decreased by 3.77% [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic daily urea production increased by 1.82% to 19.56 tons on September 19 compared to September 18. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 2.36% to 133.00 tons, and the weekly domestic urea plant - inventory increased by 2.88% to 113.27 tons [37]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 23, the prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products changed. POY150/48 cash flow increased by 134.9%, while FDY150/96 cash flow decreased by 19.3% [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6% on September 23. The PX basis (11) decreased by 57.7%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3.3% [40]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian PX开工 rate decreased by 0.8% to 78.2%, the Chinese PX开工 rate decreased by 1.5% to 86.3%, and the PTA开工 rate remained unchanged at 76.8% [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic - Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 23, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged, while Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 2.4%. The market price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.8% [45]. - **Caustic - Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of East China ports increased by 1.3% to 400 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit increased by 3723.4% to 223.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price remained unchanged at 650 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit decreased by 266.4% to - 22.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **Supply:

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing volatility due to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and geopolitical tensions, with a recent peak at $3791 per ounce [1][3] - Powell's recent comments highlight the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, including rising inflation and a weak labor market, which have not significantly impacted the bullish trend in gold prices [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly NATO's warnings to Russia, are providing additional support for gold prices, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts and strong interest from ETF investors [3] Group 2 - The short-term outlook for gold suggests that if prices close below $3760 per ounce, it may pave the way for a decline towards $3750 and subsequently $3700 [4] - Conversely, if buyers push gold prices above $3775 per ounce, it could lead to testing the record high of $3791 per ounce, with the next target being $3800 [4]