都有哪些新提法？ 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，为明年经济工作指明方向。 相比此前，会议在宏观政策取向、产业发展重点以及资本市场改革方向等方面都有不少新提法，为A股 市场投资提供了最新指引。 业内认为，新旧动能交替仍将是2026年的主要线索，科技板块如AI、半导体、机器人等值得关注，顺 应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是明年A股投资的重要主线。在政策红利与产业升级共振 下，A股市场长期稳健运行基础将进一步夯实。 会议在部署"改革攻坚"任务时强调"持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革"。 "2026年是'十五五'规划的开局之年，金融改革创新的重点领域仍在资本市场。"银河证券首席经济学家 章俊认为，新质生产力正成为经济高质量发展的强劲推动力和支撑力，需要加强资本市场改革，更好赋 能新质生产力。 在他看来，继"十五五"规划建议强调"健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"之后，中央经济工作会议 使用"持续深化"这一表述，是对2026年资本市场开展投融资改革重要性的再次深化。 政策预期：积极、宽松 会议明确，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，强调 政策协同性和 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a turbulent adjustment with all three major indices closing lower, including the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.70% to 3873.32 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.27% to 13147.39 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.41% to 3163.67 points [2][4]. Sector Performance - The banking sector showed a slight increase of 0.17%, while the defense and military industry decreased by 0.24%. The power equipment sector fell by 0.25%, and the food and beverage sector decreased by 0.42%. The public utilities sector also saw a decline of 0.50% [3]. - Among the concept sectors, the commercial aerospace concept rose by 0.29%, while the horse racing concept fell by 4.70%. The new and secondary stock concept increased by 1.18%, while the Xiaohongshu concept decreased by 3.33% [3]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue experiencing fluctuations, with the indices showing collective declines. The commercial aerospace concept is noted for its resilience, while the retail sector shows some localized activity. The semiconductor equipment sector also demonstrated strength in certain areas [4]. - The World Bank has raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2025 by 0.4 percentage points, attributing this to more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies supporting domestic consumption and investment [6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to influence market dynamics, with potential implications for asset price volatility and liquidity in the domestic market [7].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 摘要。2025 年 12 月 11 日周四，A 股市场全线回调，近 4400 只个股下跌；国债 期货市场持续反弹；商品指数下跌，双焦延续大跌。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：全线回调，大幅降温 全线回调，大幅降温。今日 A 股主要指数全线回调，上证指数低开低走，收盘跌 0.70%至 3873.32 点，失守 3900 点整数关口；深证成指跌 1.27%至 13147.39 点， 创业板指跌 1.41%至 3163.67 点；微盘指数下跌 2.88%；北证 50 指数上涨 3.84%， 盘中一度上涨近 7%。万得全 A 指数跌 1.10%。市场成交额 1.89 万亿，较前一交 易日放量 5.2%，但资金获利了结情绪明显，全市场仅 1030 只个股上涨，4377 只 下跌，下跌个股占比超 80%。在近一个月的 23 个交易日中，有 12 个交易日市场 下跌家数超过 3000 家、5 个交易日下跌家数超过 4000 家，显示市场赚钱效应依 然偏弱。 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：ch ...

高人气国防军工ETF（512810）汇聚海陆空天军工核心资产，盘初一度涨超1%创阶段新高，而后震荡 回落，最终小幅收跌0.28%，表现显著好于大市。全天成交8105万元，较上日放量逾两成。 国防军工ETF（512810）成份股27涨1平51跌，商业航天、可控核聚变概念股逆市领涨，西部超导涨 4.95%，中国卫星涨4.89%创10年新高。权重股跌多涨少成主要拖累，中国船舶跌1.64%，中航沈飞跌 2.54%。 近期商业航天概念反复走强，或为阶段主线。"航天强国"目标引领下，国内商业航天发展进入快车道， 卫星发射频次持续增加，"出海"业务同步加速，民营火箭技术亦持续突破。此外， paceX拟最快于2026 年中后期IPO，募资超300亿美元，卫星组网与太空算力的想象空间有望进一步打开。 数据来源：沪深交易所等。 风险提示：国防军工ETF被动跟踪中证军工指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2013.12.26。文中提 及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举，不作为任何个股推荐，不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。任何 在本文出现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作 为参考 ...

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.9%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.6%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.3%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.4%. The Hang Seng Index closed nearly unchanged from the previous trading day [2][3] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were banking (+0.2%), national defense and military industry (-0.2%), electrical equipment (-0.3%), food and beverage (-0.4%), and public utilities (-0.5%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-4.3%), telecommunications (-3.1%), real estate (-3.1%), textiles and apparel (-2.5%), and retail (-2.4%) [2][3] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 1,857.1 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 0.791 billion Hong Kong dollars [2] Key Insights Inflation Analysis - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year (previous value: 0.2%), while the Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.2% (previous value: -2.1%). This was primarily influenced by short-term supply and demand rebalancing in industrial products, indicating that actual inventory digestion still requires observation [3] - Market expectations suggest a rapid rebound in prices [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to rely on quantitative measures for easing [5] - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts next year, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) being a driving factor [5]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the convertible bond market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillation and upward movement in 2026, with equity markets experiencing a "slow bull" market, leading to continued activity in equity and balanced convertible bonds [5][8] - The supply-demand situation for convertible bonds in 2026 is projected to be tight, with new bonds being issued to meet corresponding allocation needs after some bonds are redeemed or mature [5][14] - Institutional investors' holdings of convertible bonds have increased, indicating strong demand for allocation in a market characterized by asset scarcity [5][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the domestic bond interest rates are expected to exhibit an "N" shaped trend in 2026, with a moderate impact on convertible bonds [47][48] - The report suggests that the funding side is likely to become the main driver of the stock market in 2026, with policies aimed at increasing the entry of long-term funds into the market [59][60] - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds related to emerging pillar industries, future industries, and the construction of a new energy system, in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [61][62]

Market Performance - The ChiNext Index fell by 1.41%, closing at 3163.67 points, with a total trading volume of 518.749 billion yuan, an increase of 23.131 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the tradable ChiNext stocks, 183 stocks closed higher, with 8 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 1200 stocks closed lower, including 4 stocks that fell by more than 10% [1] Turnover Rate - The average turnover rate for the ChiNext today was 3.74%, with 32 stocks having a turnover rate exceeding 20% [1] - The stock with the highest turnover rate was Deyi Culture, which closed down 13.38% with a turnover rate of 51.60% and a trading volume of 0.981 billion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - In terms of sector performance, the electronics sector had the most stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 20%, followed by the computer and defense industries [2] - Among the high turnover stocks, 11 stocks saw an increase, with Kema Technology, Jiayuan Technology, and Keda Guochuang leading the gains [2] Institutional Activity - Five high turnover ChiNext stocks appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List, with institutional participation noted in several stocks [2] - Shen Nong Agriculture had 6 institutional seats with a net purchase of 25.0438 million yuan, while Jiayuan Technology had 4 institutional seats with a net purchase of 14.3935 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - Among high turnover stocks, 11 stocks experienced net inflows from main funds, with Keda Guochuang, Kema Technology, and Jiayuan Technology seeing the highest net inflows [3] - Conversely, stocks like Saiwei Electronics and Shen Nong Agriculture experienced significant net outflows [3] Earnings Forecast - One high turnover stock announced its earnings forecast for the full year 2025, with a projected net profit increase of 2.76% for Nanfang Digital [3]

Market Overview - The Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 1.55%, closing at 1325.83 points, with a total trading volume of 3.616 billion shares and a turnover of 186.167 billion yuan, resulting in an average turnover rate of 1.88% [1] - Among the tradable stocks on the Sci-Tech board, 115 stocks closed higher, with 6 stocks rising over 10%, including Fuxin Technology and Zhonggang Luonai, which hit the daily limit [1] Trading Activity - The distribution of turnover rates shows that 3 stocks had turnover rates exceeding 20%, 16 stocks between 10% and 20%, 50 stocks between 5% and 10%, 67 stocks between 3% and 5%, 293 stocks between 1% and 3%, and 166 stocks below 1% [1] - The stock with the highest turnover rate was C Bai'ao, a new stock listed for 5 days, with a turnover rate of 58.93% and a daily trading volume of 1.293 billion yuan, despite a decline of 2.01% [1] - Moer Thread, another new stock, saw a significant increase of 28.04% with a turnover rate of 51.44% and a trading volume of 12.448 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - In the high turnover stocks, 36 stocks rose today, with Moer Thread, Fuxin Technology, and Zhonggang Luonai leading the gains at 28.04%, 20.00%, and 19.90% respectively [2] - The electronics sector had the most stocks with high turnover rates, totaling 23, followed by the defense and military industry with 9 stocks and the computer sector with 8 stocks [2] Capital Flow - Among high turnover stocks, 33 experienced net inflows of main funds, with Moer Thread, Guo Dun Quantum, and Xinke Mobile receiving the highest net inflows of 475 million yuan, 246 million yuan, and 177 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, stocks like Dekeli, Changguang Huaxin, and Juguang Technology faced significant net outflows of 682 million yuan, 288 million yuan, and 208 million yuan respectively [2] Leverage Fund Movements - A total of 37 high turnover stocks recently received net purchases from leveraged funds, with Moer Thread, Changguang Huaxin, and Tengjing Technology seeing the largest increases in financing balances of 1.127 billion yuan, 479 million yuan, and 189 million yuan respectively [3] - Stocks like Baiwei Storage, Huafeng Technology, and Yingshi Innovation experienced the largest decreases in financing balances, amounting to 171 million yuan, 96.412 million yuan, and 87.152 million yuan respectively [3] Top Performing Stocks - The top stocks by turnover rate on December 11 include: - C Bai'ao: Closing price 64.48 yuan, daily change -2.01%, turnover rate 58.93%, net inflow 39.4018 million yuan [4] - Moer Thread: Closing price 941.08 yuan, daily change 28.04%, turnover rate 51.44%, net inflow 475.1352 million yuan [4] - Fuxin Technology: Closing price 55.19 yuan, daily change 20.00%, turnover rate 19.60%, net inflow 72.1557 million yuan [4]

Market Overview - On December 11, the A-share market opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3897 points before retreating again[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3873.32 points, down 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.27% to 13147.39 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 18854 billion yuan, above the median of the last three years[3] Sector Performance - Wind power equipment, grid equipment, aerospace, and medical services sectors performed well, while real estate, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with notable gains in non-metal materials and wind power equipment[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.00 times and 49.52 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current macroeconomic environment is in a mild recovery phase, but the foundation still needs consolidation[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with cyclical and technology sectors likely to perform in rotation[3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and international relations affecting the economic environment[4]

Market Review - In the past five trading days (December 5 to December 11), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index slightly decreased by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.14% [3] - The trading volume increased, with a total of 9.30 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.86 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 205.98 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [11] Economic Data - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly rebounding from October, influenced by a lower base, stable external demand, and the end of holiday disruptions [26] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year [28] Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8, outlining the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [34] - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, indicating a focus on structural adjustments and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies [34] Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with a positive outlook driven by policy support and liquidity expectations [36] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic substitution processes [36] - The energy storage demand and solid-state battery industrialization present investment opportunities in the power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors [36] - The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [37]