Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. Although the conflict between the US and Iran boosts sentiment, the short - term is expected to be mainly volatile [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The operating load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1203 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 43 yuan. The futures are at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][32] - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2] - **Expectation**: The conflict between the US and Iran boosts sentiment, but the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Less cold repair of downstream float glass, stable output; the conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment of the market [4] - **Negative Factors**: The operating load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, and the output is expected to remain at a high level; the production of heavy soda ash downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4] - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4] Soda Ash Futures Market - **Closing Price of Main Contract**: The previous value was 1218 yuan/ton, the current value is 1203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% [5] - **Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe**: The previous value was 1175 yuan/ton, the current value is 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% [5] - **Main Basis**: The previous value and the current value are both - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00% [5] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 162.25 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China co - production process is - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14] - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04% [17] - **Output**: The weekly output of soda ash is 790,900 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 423,000 tons, and the output is at a historical high [19] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [20] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [23] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the operating rate is 70.61% [26] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [32] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand difference [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is positive, and the prices of coking coal and coke are rising. The glass and soda ash markets are fluctuating, with glass showing an oscillatory trend and soda ash expected to be oscillatory and weak. The silicon-manganese and silicon-iron markets are oscillatory and strong, supported by cost factors [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures contract oscillated, and the spot market was cold with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The soda ash futures contract opened lower and then rebounded, with active trading in the futures market and stable spot prices [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the short term, the glass production capacity in the Shahe area has decreased, relieving supply pressure, but downstream demand is weak, and inventory removal pressure is high. The supply of soda ash is relatively loose, with new production capacity projects being put into operation, and downstream demand is weak, with high inventory and increasing inventory accumulation pressure. However, due to the impact of the international macro - environment, the cost of energy and chemicals has increased, and the valuation of soda ash is relatively low, so the price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron - **Market Analysis**: The silicon - manganese futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was strong. The silicon - iron futures also oscillated strongly, and the spot market adjusted upwards with active trading [3]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The overall supply and demand of silicon - manganese are relatively loose, but the demand is expected to improve after the resumption of production by downstream steel mills. The price of manganese ore has risen due to South African tariff policy, pushing up the cost of silicon - manganese. The supply pressure of silicon - iron has decreased as enterprises maintain low - load production, and the demand has been boosted by the resumption of production of downstream enterprises. However, the overall production capacity of silicon - iron is relatively loose, which restricts the price increase [3]. - **Strategy**: Both silicon - manganese and silicon - iron are expected to oscillate [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, resulting in high production and an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. Although the conflict between the US and Iran has boosted sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II has increased, with high production and an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,218 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 43 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [3][34]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The conflict between the US and Iran has boosted sentiment, but the fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are few cold repairs of downstream float glass, and the production remains stable [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new overhauls, so the production is expected to remain high. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The supply of soda ash is high, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,188 | 1,155 | - 33 | | Current Value | 1,218 | 1,175 | - 43 | | Change Rate | 2.53% | 1.73% | 30.30% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 162.25 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [16]. - **Start - up Rate and Production**: The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04%. The weekly production of soda ash is 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the start - up rate is 70.61% [28]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, start - up rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the expectation of rising energy valuations is increasing, leading to a low - level upward repair of coking coal, alloys, and glass - soda ash futures prices. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, with steel and iron ore inventories still under pressure, so the upward driving force for steel and iron ore prices is limited, and they will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner. Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the driving force for the futures price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price increase. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have recovered and are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, after the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the pressure on the inventory is still there. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support strength of post - festival demand [2][7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. The supply is gradually recovering, and it is expected to return to normal in about two weeks. The demand is at a seasonal low, and the inventory has decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand situation [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the long run, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand of coke. In the short term, although there are disturbances, the supply - demand structure of coke will continue to be healthy. However, the cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the expectation of spot price reduction is strong. The futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. The supply may decrease slightly during the Two Sessions, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [2][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to run weakly and stably, while the futures price is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation affected by capital sentiment. The supply has recovered rapidly, the import is at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support is insufficient, there is resistance in the downward transmission of the cost end, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against. The cost is rising, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is limited but the driving force is insufficient. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production of manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation is quickly repaired above the cost line. The cost support is strengthening, the demand recovery is slow, and the manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [3][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has a disturbance expectation, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The supply may decline in the long run, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the inventory pressure is large [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high inventory and high supply always suppress the price [3][12] 3.5 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering, but the overall production is at a low level. The demand is also at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating. The fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated. Affected by the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the macro - environment is still uncertain. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2364.70, up 1.43%. The steel industry chain index on the same day was 1915.51, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.74%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.06% [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, international oil prices have strongly risen, boosting the polyolefin market from the cost side. Polyethylene domestic supply remains high, and losses in oil - based and naphtha - based production routes have intensified this week. For polypropylene, planned maintenance in March is relatively high, and the resumption progress of PDH and other devices is slow due to rising raw material prices. Downstream factory开工率 is at a seasonal low. Although the current fundamentals are under pressure, there are still expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream开工率 [1]. Methanol Industry - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and limited Iranian methanol exports, increasing geopolitical risk premiums. Domestically, the开工 rate remains high, but imports are affected by the conflict, and the arrival volume in March will decline significantly. The demand side is weak, and port olefin demand is poor. Port inventories are at a medium - high historical level, but there are expectations of inventory reduction. The current price is mainly driven by geopolitical sentiment, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of the conflict and the port inventory reduction rhythm [3]. Chlor - alkali and PVC Industry - For caustic soda, the futures fluctuated weakly on the 2nd, and the spot price remained stable. The supply is expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resume work, increasing inventory pressure. The demand side has some support for the price. Overall, the domestic caustic soda supply - demand situation is weak, and the market may fluctuate and adjust in the short term. For PVC, the futures fluctuated higher on the 2nd, and the spot price was weakly volatile. The supply remains high, and the demand is normal. The price is affected by cost concerns and macro - sentiment, and the short - term upward sentiment may continue, but the increase is uncertain [7]. Urea Industry - The urea futures fluctuated down on the 2nd. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, and the inventory accumulated during the holiday exerts pressure on the price. The agricultural demand is advancing, while the industrial demand is slowly recovering. The price may be in a high - level stalemate in the short term. The main contract is expected to be in the 1800 - 1900 range, and attention should be paid to downstream demand progress and inventory accumulation [8]. LPG Industry - The LPG prices showed an upward trend on March 2nd. The炼厂库容 ratio and port inventory increased. The upstream - main refinery开工率 remained unchanged, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased slightly. The market is affected by various factors, and no specific overall view is provided in the report [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - Overseas main production areas are transitioning to reduced production and suspension of tapping, with a shrinking total supply and rising raw material prices. Downstream tire enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the demand is expected to be boosted. The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. With the strengthening of overseas raw material prices and the resumption of downstream production, and the impact of the tense Middle - East situation on oil prices, the rubber price is expected to rise, and previous long positions can be held. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East situation [13]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose significantly. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the risk premium of crude oil. If the risk spreads or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices will continue to rise; if the conflict eases, there is a risk of a sharp decline in oil prices. Geopolitical conflicts usually have a pulsed impact on oil prices, and long positions should be held with caution [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, domestic and international devices are operating stably, and the downstream styrene industry's profit has been significantly repaired. However, due to import pressure and high port inventories, the price follows oil prices and downstream styrene fluctuations. For styrene, the industry profit is good, and the factory load has increased. In March, the supply increase is expected to be limited, and the demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be boosted by oil prices in the short term. For both, long positions should be reduced at high levels, and attention should be paid to price pressure and oil price trends [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply is in high - level shock, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling can be considered around 1200. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the demand is restricted, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The price may also fluctuate, and short - selling can be considered around 1075. Attention should be paid to post - holiday macro - policies and downstream situations [18]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March, and the price is supported by cost and oil prices. For PTA, the load has increased, but the processing margin has been compressed, and the price follows the cost. For ethylene glycol, the supply will decline in March, and there are expectations of inventory reduction. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak, and it follows raw material fluctuations. For bottle - chips, the supply will increase in March, and the processing margin may decline. For all products, long positions should be reduced at high levels, and attention should be paid to oil price trends [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased by over 5%. The L59, PP59, and LP05 spreads decreased. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased slightly, and the downstream加权开工率 decreased significantly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, while the PP粉料开工率 and downstream加权开工率 increased [1]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 and社会库存 increased, and PP企业 and trade - dealer inventories also increased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the MA59 spread changed significantly. Spot prices in different regions also rose [3]. - **开工率**: The domestic upstream企业开工率 decreased slightly, the overseas企业开工率 increased, and the西北企业产销率 decreased. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 remained unchanged, while the甲醛开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存, port inventory, and社会库存 all increased [3]. Chlor - alkali and PVC Industry - **Price Changes**: For caustic soda, the spot price remained stable, and the futures fluctuated weakly. For PVC, the futures fluctuated higher, and the spot price was weakly volatile [7]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda行业开工率 increased slightly, and the PVC总开工率 remained unchanged. Downstream开工率 of related industries showed different trends [7]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda厂库库存 increased, and PVC上游厂库库存 and总社会库存 changed slightly [7]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price fluctuated down, and the spot price was relatively stable [8]. - **开工率**: The尿素生产厂家开工率 increased slightly [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic尿素厂内库存 and港口库存 increased, and the企业订单天数 decreased [8]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 prices increased, and the PG03 - 04 and PG03 - 05 spreads changed. Spot prices also rose [9]. - **开工率**: The上游 - main refinery开工率 remained unchanged, the样本企业周度产销率 decreased slightly, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: The LPG炼厂库容比, port库存, and port库容比 all increased [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: Spot prices of natural rubber and related products changed slightly, and the月间价差 also changed [13]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of automobile tires (semi - steel and full - steel) increased significantly [13]. - **Inventory**: The保税区库存 increased, and the上期所厂库期货库存 decreased slightly [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased significantly. The spreads between different contracts also changed significantly [16]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the裂解价差 also changed [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: Upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene increased. Pure benzene and styrene prices also rose, and their spreads and cash - flows changed [17]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of related industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene江苏港口库存 decreased slightly, and the styrene江苏港口库存 increased [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed slightly [18]. - **开工率**: The soda ash开工率 and周产量 increased slightly, and the浮法日熔量 and光伏日熔量 also increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The玻璃厂库库存 and soda ash厂库库存 increased significantly [18]. Polyester Industry - **Price Changes**: Upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased. Downstream polyester product prices also rose, and their spreads and cash - flows changed [19]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester - related industries showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable [19]. - **Inventory**: The MEG港口库存 increased, and the PTA华东现货价格 and期货 prices rose [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black - series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. In the short term, inventory digestion and demand verification are the core contradictions. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to reverse trends and will probably continue to fluctuate weakly within a range [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak position among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [9][16]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with prices oscillating. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large northwest factories and downstream demand changes [19]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to whether new "anti - involution" statements appear in important meetings [22]. - For glass, the market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1075 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation and consolidation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1215 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3067 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 9328 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.9038 million lots, a decrease of 44381 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3190 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, a rise of 4 yuan/ton (0.124%). The registered warehouse receipts were 428388 tons, an increase of 76141 tons. The main contract position was 1.4596 million lots, a decrease of 32410 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change; in Shanghai, it was also 3240 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the production and sales recovery rhythm not fully restored and the inventory accumulation rate relatively fast, but still within a controllable range. The hot - rolled coil has a production level similar to that before the holiday, and the apparent demand after the holiday has recovered quickly, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. The focus should be on the inventory reduction rhythm and sustainability [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 754.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.53% (+4.00). The position changed by - 3955 lots to 542700 lots. The weighted position was 951300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 755 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.65 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.82%. Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 national important meeting from March 4th to March 11th, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control and reduce the blast furnace load by no less than 30% [5]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - In terms of supply, overseas ore shipments fluctuate slightly at a high level. The shipments from Australia decreased, while those from Brazil continued to increase, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The near - end arrivals continued to decline. In terms of demand, the latest daily average hot metal production increased to 233.28 tons. Before the Spring Festival, some blast furnaces were复产 as planned, and most of the blast furnace overhauls started in late February. The steel mill profitability rate increased slightly. During the important meeting, hot metal production is expected to be temporarily affected. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has returned to the accumulation stage, and the steel mill inventory has decreased significantly during the holiday. It is expected that the price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in March [6]. 3.3 Ferroalloys 3.3.1 Market Information - On March 2nd, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.93% at 6082 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 ferromanganese silicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 92 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.66% at 5764 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 186 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The rise of ferroalloys last week was mainly due to market speculation about the increase in South African power costs and the rumored levy of ecological export tariffs on manganese ore (the ecological export tariff rumor was falsified), which drove the speculative enthusiasm of market funds. In addition, under the background of the central economic work conference in December last year re - emphasizing "dual carbon", market rumors about energy consumption monitoring, dual - control of energy consumption, and "anti - involution" near the "Two Sessions" have led to market capital expectations and games. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue to oscillate and reduce volatility, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector is still in a weak position, and ferroalloys are also affected. In terms of fundamental supply and demand, the supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. The future market drivers mainly come from the direction of the black sector and the cost - push from manganese ore for ferromanganese silicon and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) for ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon, as well as the progress of the "dual carbon" policy [9][10]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1 Market Information - On March 2nd, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) continued to rebound from the bottom during the session and closed up 0.05% at 1094.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1522.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 237.5 yuan/ton to the futures; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal was 1270 yuan/ton, with a premium of 159 yuan/ton to the futures; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1197 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 1.01% at 1652.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, with a premium of 84.5 yuan/ton to the futures; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton to the futures [12]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. After the downstream steel mills and coking plants completed their pre - holiday inventory replenishment, they will enter the active de - stocking stage until mid - April, which restricts consumption. At the same time, coal mines gradually resume production after the holiday, and the coal production in March is usually at the annual peak. For coke, the downstream also enters the active de - stocking stage, and the weakening of coking coal prices reduces the lower - bound support. In addition, the market is still worried about the terminal demand for steel and has low expectations for the "Two Sessions" policies. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue to oscillate and reduce volatility, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector is in a weak position, and coking coal and coke are also affected. After the Spring Festival, the total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the downstream actively de - stocks while the upstream inventory accumulates, which restricts the short - term demand. The coal production has increased significantly after the holiday, bringing marginal pressure to the supply side. It is expected that coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, but the time is more likely to be between June and October, rather than the present [15][16]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon 3.5.1 Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8325 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.83% (- 70). The weighted contract position changed by - 2701 lots to 442489 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main contract was 825 yuan/ton for 553 and 475 yuan/ton for 421 [18]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon (PS2605) closed at 44930 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.37% (- 1565). The weighted contract position changed by - 430 lots to 65273 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was 6970 yuan/ton [20]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: After the holiday, the number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased, and the weekly output increased. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly in March. The production in Southwest China has limited short - term incremental capacity. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply is also expected to increase slightly in March, so the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large northwest factories and downstream demand changes [19]. - Polycrystalline silicon: In March, some bases in the northwest will resume production or carry out rotation overhauls, and the production schedule is expected to increase. The factory inventory in the silicon material link is still at a high level, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The prices of battery cells and components have increased, but the silicon wafer link is still in a state of low prices and high inventory, so the feedback to the silicon material link is not good. The market trading was light in the first week after the holiday, and the spot price of silicon materials decreased slightly. It is expected that the "anti - involution" policy will support the price, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to whether new "anti - involution" statements appear in important meetings [21][22]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1062 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, an increase of 0.38% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1050 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan. On February 26th, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 76.008 million cases, an increase of 20.656 million cases (37.32%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 67820 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 126928 lots [24]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1194 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, an increase of 0.25% (+3). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1164 yuan, with no change. On February 26th, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 0.3064 million tons (37.32%), including 0.8959 million tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 0.1395 million tons, and 0.9985 million tons of light soda ash, an increase of 0.1669 million tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 3411 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 2658 lots [26]. 3.6.2 Strategy Views - Glass: The supply of the float glass market remains stable, and a 600 - ton production line in Gansu Kaisheng has started production. The demand is weak, with most downstream processing plants not yet resumed, and the demand release is slow. Traders are mostly waiting and watching. Affected by the blocked shipment of original sheet enterprises during the Spring Festival, the industry inventory has increased significantly, and the de - stocking pressure is prominent. Although manufacturers generally raised prices during the "good start" window, the price increase is difficult under the background of weak demand and high inventory. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1075 yuan/ton [25]. - Soda ash: The spot market is still full of wait - and - see sentiment. The downstream of light soda ash has not fully resumed production, and the downstream of heavy soda ash mainly purchases on demand, with low enthusiasm. In terms of demand, the main consumption industries such as glass and detergents are still in the transition stage of resuming production, and the actual procurement release is slow. In general, there are few maintenance plans for soda ash plants recently, and the supply side changes little. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow - range oscillation and consolidation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1215 yuan/ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the overall black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. However, there may be short - term disturbances on the demand side. With the weakening of coking coal cost support, there is an expectation of price reduction for spot goods. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures market is expected to run with wide - range oscillations affected by capital sentiment [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will fluctuate around the cost valuation [2][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. After the futures valuation is repaired to near the cost, the driving force for further upward movement is insufficient. It is difficult for the silicon iron futures price to maintain a high level [2][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of increase, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12] 3.5 Steel - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still accumulating, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to run under pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.60% to 2458.25, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.76% to 2824.14, and the industrial products index increased by 1.48% to 2331.34. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.35% on that day, 0.87% in the past 5 days, - 4.40% in the past month, and - 3.38% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

纯碱早报 2026-3-3 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：远兴能源二期开工负荷提升，碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光 伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1155元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1188元/吨，基差为-33元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存189.44万吨，较前一周增加19.29%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游浮法玻璃冷修较少，产量持稳。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、远 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, in March, during the Two Sessions and macro - fluctuation window period, market expectation volatility is expected to increase. Current economic stimulus expectations are low, and demand is pessimistic. Pay attention to the possibility of expectation differences. Valuation is low, and beware of capital re - allocation [21] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it's the terminal demand verification period. Considering the late Spring Festival this year, the post - holiday resumption of work may be slow. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro - sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32] - For ferroalloys, in the short term, silicon - manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but later, due to sentiment release and high - inventory suppression, there is a drive for hedging in the industrial end. Silicon - iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but limited upside due to weak black downstream fundamentals [47] - For soda ash, the current rigid demand is stable. There are ignition expectations in the float glass end and new ignition production lines in photovoltaic glass. Some manufacturers are expected to have maintenance, which will affect production. The Spring Festival inventory accumulation is slightly lower than expected. The upside and downside price spaces are limited, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions [64] - For glass, the actual demand has not returned, and the production and sales are temporarily weak. The market is in the initial recovery stage. High mid - stream inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside, and demand needs to be verified [88] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3131, 3067, and 3105 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3259, 3219, and 3238 yuan/ton respectively [4] - **Spreads**: Rebar 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01 month - spreads were 64, - 38, - 26 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01 month - spreads were 40, - 19, - 21 yuan/ton [4] - **Spot and Basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and basis in different regions changed slightly from February 28 to March 2, 2026 [9][11] - **Ratios**: 01, 05, 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were 4; 01, 05, 10 rebar/coke ratios were 2 [18] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, 09 iron ore contracts were 721.5, 754.5, 733.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of 01, 05, 09 contracts were 34, 2.5, 22 yuan/ton respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of February 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 233.28 tons, 45 - port throughput was 298.48 tons, and 45 - port inventory was 17091.96 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05 month - spreads of coking coal were - 193, - 95.5, 288.5 yuan/ton; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05 month - spreads of coke were - 91.5, - 79, 170.5 yuan/ton [33][35] - **Spot and Profits**: Spot prices of various types of coking coal and coke were stable on March 2, 2026. The immediate coking profit was - 3 yuan/ton [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron**: On March 2, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 176 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees [48] - **Silicon - manganese**: On March 2, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions also increased [49] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, 01 soda ash contracts were 1188, 1252, 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 month - spreads were - 64, - 47, 111 yuan/ton respectively [65] - **Spot**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were stable on March 2, 2026 [65] Glass - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, 01 glass contracts were 1043, 1154, 1216 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 month - spreads were - 111, - 62, 173 yuan/ton respectively [89] - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of glass in different regions were weak in late February 2026 [90]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, for the stock index, if the Middle East situation does not worsen, the short - term adjustment will bring good long - position layout opportunities; the asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision; copper prices are expected to run strongly with short - term fluctuations; aluminum prices will run strongly with short - term fluctuations; alumina will run with short - term oscillations; zinc prices are boosted in the short - term; nickel prices may run strongly with short - term fluctuations; stainless steel futures will run strongly with oscillations; tin prices are expected to continue to strengthen; precious metals prices are expected to continue to run strongly; industrial silicon shows an oscillatory trend; lithium carbonate is bullish; for steel products, most are in an oscillatory state; for agricultural products, different varieties have different trends such as oscillation, bullishness or bearishness; for energy and chemical products, different products have different trends affected by various factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and cost. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: If the Middle East conflict ends quickly and the situation does not worsen, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities, similar to the situation in June 2025 [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recent macro - positives boost copper prices, but continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices, and short - term copper prices are expected to run strongly with fluctuations [1] - **Aluminum**: Recent macro - positives boost the non - ferrous sector, but a large increase in domestic aluminum inventories may drag down prices, and short - term aluminum prices will run strongly with fluctuations [1] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina decreases, but inventories continue to accumulate, and it will run with short - term oscillations [1] - **Zinc**: The escalation of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran raises concerns about Iran's zinc ore supply, boosting zinc prices in the short - term. After the festival, pay attention to the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises [1] - **Nickel**: Geopolitical risks rise, the approval of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is slow, and there are potential issues with the QMB project in the Indonesian IMIP park. Short - term nickel prices may run strongly with fluctuations, but high global nickel inventories may still have a suppressing effect in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Geopolitical risks rise, and there are supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. After the festival, social inventories increase. Stainless steel futures will run strongly with oscillations. Pay attention to the recovery of post - festival demand, and it is recommended to go long on a short - term basis [1] - **Tin**: The escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to war metals, and tin is expected to continue to strengthen. In the short - term with high volatility, investors should focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The sudden escalation of the Middle East geopolitical tension over the weekend has led to a significant increase in risk - aversion sentiment, and precious metal prices are expected to continue to run strongly [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The sudden escalation of the Middle East geopolitical tension over the weekend, combined with the tight short - term platinum spot supply and supply concerns, may lead to a continued strong performance [1] Industrial Silicon - Northwest production increases while southwest production decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decline [1] Lithium Carbonate - Energy storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and there are mining - end disturbances. It is bullish, but the spot has not fully recovered. Observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [1] Steel Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: They are in an oscillatory state. For the hot - rolled coils, look for profit - taking opportunities for the basis positions established before the festival [1] - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the rise at this position. Policy benefits and cost support are positive for prices [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: In the short - term, supply and demand are weak, and the expectation of supply reduction rises. In the long - term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05. It is recommended that the industry establish positive cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price rises, and wait and see for unilateral trading [1] - **Soda Ash**: It follows glass, and the medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, with prices under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Vegetable Oils**: The expected increase in crude oil prices due to the weekend geopolitical events is expected to drive vegetable oil prices up from the biodiesel end. In the short - term, they are treated bullishly, but considering subsequent factors, it is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term [1] - **Cotton**: There is support but no driving force in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1] - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Corn**: The progress of grain sales in Northeast China is relatively fast, and there is support for feed demand. After the festival, there is a need for inventory replenishment, and the price will run strongly with oscillations. However, be vigilant against potential negative feedbacks and it is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The export and crushing of US soybeans are positive for the US market, the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is delayed, and the Middle East situation has escalated, leading to a recent rebound in the soybean meal price. However, the rebound is expected to be limited under the pressure of large global supply, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [1] - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news during the Spring Festival. The previous supply - side positives have basically faded, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short - term. Pay attention to the post - festival port inventory situation [1] - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the overseas market quotation is expected to rise, providing upward driving force for the futures price [1] Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + suspends production increases until the end of 2026, the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain, and the commodity market sentiment is bullish with a recovery in capital risk appetite [1] - **Fuel Oil**: It follows crude oil in the short - term with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1] - **BR Rubber**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is still in loss, and there is an expected increase in maintenance and production reduction. There is an expected phased accumulation of inventories for both BD and BR. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1] - **PTA**: Asian aromatics show a structural trend due to geopolitics, some overseas PTA factories face operational pressure, and there will be a major turnover season for refineries from March to May, with expected supply tightening [1] - **Styrene**: Geopolitics and Trump's tariffs disrupt the market. The production economy of factories is stable, and the demand is expected to gradually recover from the end of February [1] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iran situation, future imports are expected to decrease, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There is a mixture of long and short factors [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions rise, crude oil prices increase, but the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: In 2026, there is less global production capacity, and the differential electricity price in the Northwest region is expected to force the elimination of PVC production capacity, with an optimistic future outlook, but the current fundamentals are poor [1] - **LPG**: The February CP price has risen, the post - festival price trend of PG is strong, but there are factors such as a decline in domestic PDH operating rate and sufficient domestic civil gas supply, with short - term bearish factors on the demand side [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Price increases are generally stable. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights and are expected to have a strong willingness to stop price declines and raise prices after the off - season in March [1]