黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-24 淡季现实与冬储预期博弈，盘⾯震荡运 ⾏ 钢⼚复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿盘⾯下⽅⽀撑较强，煤焦估值 低位修复。但⽬前淡季钢材供需双弱，铁矿港⼝库存累积，煤焦补库 空间有限，基本⾯亮点有限，盘⾯继续上涨乏⼒，价格震荡运⾏。 钢厂复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿盘面下方支撑较强，煤焦估值 低位修复。但目前淡季钢材供需双弱，铁矿港口库存累积，煤焦补库 空间有限，基本面亮点有限，盘面继续上涨乏力，价格震荡运行。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库未至，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需 稳，钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废 钢需求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，现货继续提降预期较 低，随着焦钢企业原料冬储补库逐渐开启，现货价格将有更强支撑， 预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基 本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 3. 合金方面：锰硅市场供需宽松格局难改，上游库存压力较大 ...

钢材日报 钢材价格认为下方受到成本端的支撑，但上方又受到需求逐渐转弱和钢材出口预期可能收紧的压制，钢材价格维持震荡的趋势。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-22 | | 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-22 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3116 | 3128 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -12 | 2 | | 螺纹钢05合约收盘价 | 3128 | 3126 | 螺纹05-10月差 | -41 | -33 | | 螺纹钢10合约收盘价 | 3169 | 3159 | 螺纹10-01月差 | 53 | 31 | | 热卷01合约收盘价 | 3280 | 3282 | 热卷01-05月差 | -1 | 5 | | 热卷05合约收盘价 | 3281 | 3277 | 热卷05-10月差 | -14 | -15 | | 热卷10合约收盘价 | 3295 | 3292 | 热卷10-01月差 | 15 | 10 | 螺纹盘面价格. source ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-23 市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：下游情绪谨慎，玻碱偏弱震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：现货报价坚挺，双硅盘面上行 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货整体维持上行，硅锰现货市场偏强运行，现货价格小幅上涨，6517北方市场价格5510-5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-23 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利空： 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1115元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1169元/吨，基差为-54元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.93万吨，较前一周增加0.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 1、23年以来 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-23 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.224%）。当日注册仓单 60684 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.1974 万手，环比增加 23108 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3277 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 8 元/吨（0.244%）。 当日注册仓单 104293 吨, 环比增加 889 吨。 主力合约持仓量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft planning major projects. In the current off - season, supply and demand are both weak. The steel rebar fundamentals are still resilient, while hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure. Supported by winter storage and cost, the futures market continues to rebound. The iron ore futures perform strongly, and the valuation of coking coal and coke continues to recover due to supply disturbances. The glass - soda ash prices are suppressed by the oversupply situation. Overall, there is a chance of a low - level rebound in the futures market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. Iron water production continues to decline, weakening the rigid demand. Steel mills' restocking is slow, and there is strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][7] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and demand remains stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of further spot price cuts is low. As winter storage by coke and steel enterprises begins, the spot price will be more strongly supported, and the futures valuation still has room for repair, expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [2][11] - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures valuation has room for repair, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market supply and demand of manganese silicon remain loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upward movement of the futures price may face selling pressure, and the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the price bottom. Currently, the upstream supply pressure is not large, but in the off - season of terminal demand, the market supply and demand are both weak. The upside space of the futures price is not overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply and demand are in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress the price, expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][12] - Soda ash: Recently, the coal price recovery has strengthened the cost support. However, the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][15] 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures market continues to rebound. The spot market trading is average. Steel production is decreasing, but rebar production has stabilized and rebounded. Demand is weak in the off - season but still has support. Steel inventories are decreasing, but the current inventory level is still high year - on - year, and demand may weaken. The upside space of the futures market is limited [6] - Iron ore: The spot price is weakly oscillating. Overseas shipments have decreased, arrivals have declined, and iron water production has dropped significantly. Port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' restocking demand is slow to release. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap steel: The supply is at a low level, and demand is stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The third round of price cuts has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have turned negative. The production enthusiasm is okay, but some are restricted by environmental protection. Steel mills' inventories are increasing, and the overall market is stabilizing. The futures valuation has room for repair and is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Affected by the earthquake, the market sentiment is high. Domestic supply is at a low level, and imports are high. The downstream has started to restock, and the futures valuation has room for repair [12] - Glass: The spot price is still weak, and the futures market is oscillating. The policy is positive, but the supply may decline in the long term and is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the valuation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price will oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [12] - Soda ash: The supply has slightly decreased, and demand is expected to weaken. The overall supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and the market is at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the spot price has slightly increased. The cost has slightly loosened, demand is weak, and supply is difficult to significantly reduce inventory. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and it will oscillate at a low level in the medium term [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures market is oscillating, and the spot price has little change. The cost is high, demand is weak, supply pressure has been alleviated, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] 3.6 Index Information - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all increased, with increases of 1.10%, 1.34% and 0.79% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on the day, 2.44% in the past 5 days, - 0.06% in the past month, and - 6.26% since the beginning of the year [104][106]