交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：李轩怡 电 话：13164701108 邮 箱： lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：F0018403 能化板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 玻碱节后库存承压，价格偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【纯碱】 在去美元化背景下，1 月有色及贵金属加速上涨，断崖式领涨于商品市场。本轮 商品价格普涨更像是随着全球金属价格上涨而出现的输入性通胀，但若上游资源价格 涨价过快，下游涨价能否顺畅传导，还是会进一步缩减需求有待观察，但这部分担忧 的计价预计会延迟到临近春节或节后释放。市场对春季商品普涨行情有一定期待，在 当前估值下对节后累库计价也比较谨慎。但随着春节的临近，库存压力将会愈发突出， 若宏观情绪边际走弱，价格易跌难涨。 1 月纯碱新增产能陆续提负，湖北新都，博源二线新增产能提量，逐步对纯碱供 应形成压力。2 月份预计 2 条浮法玻璃产线放水冷修，光伏玻璃产能或变动不大，重 碱用量预计下滑，春节假期期间部分轻碱下游用户放假，下游需求减少。通胀计价下 商品普涨，但传导上 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 84.19 86.42 -2.23 开工率 71.863 71.620 0.243 产量 78.31 77.17 1.14 产线条数 213 212 1 重质产量 42.11 41.29 0.82 产量 105.6965 105.6965 0 轻质产量 36.2 35.88 0.32 厂内库存 154.42 152.12 2.3 库存 5256.4 5321.58 -65.18 重质库存 71.61 69.67 1.94 库存可用天数 22.8 23.1 -0.3 轻质库存 82.81 82.45 0.36 库存可用天数 12.8 12.61 0.19 产销率 97.06 106.98 -9.92 天然气利润 -155.12 -158.69 3.57 氨碱法毛利 -88.35 -96.3 7.95 石油焦利润 1.07 -1.78 2.85 联产法毛利 -26.5 -40 13.5 煤制气利润 -68.5 -65.11 -3.39 基差 -40 -35 -5 基差 -81 -64 -17 1-5价差 -84 -102 18 1-5价差 -148 -156 8 品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is high, and coal prices are rebounding from a low level. The glass and soda ash markets are boosted by market sentiment, with glass and soda ash futures showing a volatile rebound. The double - silicon market is also driven by market sentiment, with the silicon - manganese and silicon - iron futures showing an upward trend [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass 2605 main contract rebounded yesterday, with increased trading volume and open interest. Spot prices fluctuated with the futures prices, and some manufacturers raised their quotes [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash 2605 main contract rebounded in a volatile manner. Spot market quotes fluctuated with the futures, and transaction prices stabilized. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The short - term supply shortage in the glass market continues. The continuous cold - repair of production lines and significant inventory reduction support the price. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand from downstream also provides some support. Attention should be paid to the progress of production line cold - repair and the enterprise restocking rhythm [1] - Soda Ash: The weak reality of oversupply in the soda ash market has not improved significantly. Although the inventory accumulation is less than expected, it is still at a high level. The float glass has entered the off - season, and the market is mainly for Spring Festival rigid - demand stocking. Attention should be paid to the enterprise restocking rhythm during the long holiday. In addition, driven by the warming market sentiment, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon - Manganese: The silicon - manganese main contract rose 1.61% yesterday under the influence of the black - series futures, with a daily reduction of 12,587 contracts in open interest. The silicon - manganese spot market was strong, and factories adjusted production normally. The price of 6517 silicon - manganese in the northern market was 5,570 - 5,670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures were strong under the influence of the overall black - series. The price was driven up by the boost of macro - sentiment and the potential cost support. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon - iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon - iron was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon - Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon - manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities. The supply - demand remains loose. There is an expectation of increased pig iron production in the future, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from steel mills is expected to improve the demand for silicon - manganese. The South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [3] - Silicon - Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon - iron are controllable. Enterprises actively reduce production loads. Considering the复产 of steel mills and winter - storage restocking, the demand for silicon - iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment. Considering the expected decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon - iron, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon - iron and the electricity price policy in the production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haohua Group is actively integrating party building with production operations, showcasing achievements through a competition among party branch secretaries, emphasizing the role of grassroots leadership in driving high-quality development [1] Group 1: Party Building and Efficiency - The party branch at the soda ash plant has achieved a historical record by repairing 94 old instruments and reusing 84, resulting in a 34.8% increase in repair volume [2] - The implementation of six technical transformation projects in 2025 has led to significant cost reductions and efficiency gains, with one project generating an annual profit of 490,000 yuan and another 1.2 million yuan [2] - The bromine plant's party branch improved the comprehensive extraction rate of bromine to 88.13%, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%, resulting in an additional profit of over 14 million yuan [2] Group 2: Safety and Risk Management - The company has achieved a 100% weekly inspection rate for 2,106 instruments, setting historical bests for various operational metrics [4] - A risk prevention model has been established, pairing one experienced party member with two young pioneers to enhance safety and operational standards [4] Group 3: Digital Transformation and Innovation - The party branch has successfully completed eight out of ten technical challenges related to digital transformation within a year, including innovations in pneumatic intelligent actuators [5] - The introduction of a "zero manual" system has reduced operation frequency by 51.89% and improved stability by 65%, with a 59.5% increase in key control metrics [5] - The company has implemented 22 APC control loops, achieving a 98% automation rate and reducing manual intervention by 85% [5]

黑色建材日报 2026-01-30 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 34 元/吨（1.088%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.54 万手，环比增加 40974 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3308 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 28 元/吨（0.853%）。 当日注册仓单 187668 吨, 环比增加 8842 吨。主力合约持 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern remains supply - exceeding - demand. Although the chemical market sentiment has improved recently and the short - term trend may be oscillatingly strong, the upward space is limited in the long - term, and there is no expectation for going long. It's not advisable to blindly place long orders before the core contradiction of oversupply is fundamentally resolved [8]. - For glass, the industry is in a new stage of capacity clearance. Short - term supply contraction will support prices, but weak downstream real - estate data and inventory accumulation expectations suppress the upward movement of the market. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong before substantial positive factors are realized. It is recommended to gradually reduce short positions and pay attention to supply - demand changes and raw material price support [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On January 29, the main soda ash contract SA605 rose significantly, closing at 1,224 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.59% from the previous day, with an intraday increase of 6,800 lots [7]. - This week, the soda ash market faces both increasing supply and shrinking demand. There is a slight inventory accumulation, and the trend is expected to continue. The downstream float glass industry is weak, and the real - estate market has not improved substantially, so the demand for soda ash is weak. With the cold - repair of float glass production lines, the consumption support for soda ash further weakens [8]. Glass - On January 29, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 turned from decline to rise. The spot price of glass is stable but weak, and the industry is generally in a loss state. The supply of float glass is tightening, and the cold - repair of production lines is accelerating. The inventory pressure is high, and the pre - holiday restocking is basically over. The market is in a capacity clearance stage, and short - term supply contraction supports prices, but weak downstream real - estate data and inventory accumulation expectations suppress the market [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][17][20]

证券代码：600328 证券简称：中盐化工 公告编号：2026-004 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司 2025年年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ●本期业绩预告适用于"净利润与上年同期相比下降50%以上"情形。 ●经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润7,520万元左右，与上年同期 相比，将减少44,360万元左右，同比减少85%左右。 ●预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润405万元左右，与上年同期相 比，将减少34,390万元左右，同比减少99%左右。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 （二）非经营性损益的影响：1.本期处置鄂托克旗胡杨矿业有限责任公司持有石灰石矿权形成收益 4,834.67万元。2.上期确认金属钠专利技术使用权收益13,018.87万元。 （二）业绩预告情况 经财务部门初步测算： 1.预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润7,520万元左右，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相 比，将减少 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-29 冬储意愿低迷，盘面震荡整理 玻璃纯碱：刚需采购为主，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃：昨日玻璃主力合约全天呈现窄幅震荡走势。现货厂家报价基本维持前一日水平，下游市场以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：供应端玻璃产线冷修预期持续升温，近期行业库存去化较好，库存边际压力有所缓解，但整体库存 仍处于高位，后续需持续跟踪春节前备货节奏；需求端呈现分化态势，光伏玻璃板块受 "抢出口" 预期支撑，刚需 表现相对稳健，而浮法玻璃受消费淡季影响，终端需求持续低迷。 纯碱：昨日纯碱主力合约延续震荡运行格局。现货市场报价随期货盘面高位波动，部分厂家小幅上调报价，下游 企业多持观望态度，采购意愿偏弱。 供需与逻辑：纯碱市场仍处于强供给、弱需求的弱现实格局。供应端，行业高产量、高库存的状态仍将持续，短 期对价格反弹高度形成明显压制，后续需要关注新产能投产进度；需求端持续疲软，未有明显变化，需跟踪小长 假前下游补库节奏的落地情况。近期纯碱市场情绪受化工板块整体回暖带动有所修复，其持续性仍有待进一步观 察。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, the output showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The inventory was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, suppressing the absolute price. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. - For industrial silicon, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation [24]. - The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.7444 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 29747 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output of rebar showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 178826 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. The main contract position was 1.5177 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 9222 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.63% (- 5.00). The position changed by - 6440 lots, reaching 564,600 lots. The weighted position was 920,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.70% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 28th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.24% intraday, closing at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.50% intraday, closing at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push (manganese ore for manganese silicon) or supply - contraction (due to losses or "dual - carbon" policy for ferrosilicon) factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 28th, coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 1.61% intraday, closing at 1134.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 1398.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 264 yuan/ton over the futures price. Coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.96% intraday, closing at 1684.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.13% (- 100). The weighted contract position changed by - 8748 lots, reaching 376349 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 50805 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.11% (- 1095). The weighted contract position changed by - 1108 lots, reaching 74886 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1695 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1067 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1). The North China large - plate price was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million cases, up 202,800 cases (+ 0.38%) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1158 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (- 0.38%) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soda ash capacity utilization remains high, with new capacity gradually ramping up and overall production increasing. There is an expectation of cold - repair for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although high - level exports ease some pressure and anti - involution sentiment provides support, high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of pressure when the sentiment fades and the market returns to the weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened lower and closed higher, showing a volatile and upward trend in the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The resistance is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume increased by 72,467 lots, and the open interest increased by 22,832 lots compared to the previous day. The intraday high was 1206, the low was 1176, and the closing price was 1198, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and Tianjin Soda Industry resumed production, leading to a narrow - range increase in supply. Downstream demand was mediocre, with poor restocking willingness and a wait - and - see attitude [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.46%. The light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,700 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27% month - on - month; the combined - soda process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, up 0.42% month - on - month [2] - Inventory: As of January 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,541,000 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 1.30% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 838,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 702,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%; the overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price rigid - demand purchases [2] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of the combined - soda process was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - High soda ash capacity utilization and new capacity ramping up lead to increasing production. There is a cold - repair expectation for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may weaken rigid demand. High - level exports and anti - involution sentiment provide some support, but high inventory restricts price rebound. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, and there is a risk of pressure when sentiment fades [4]