Summary of Iron Ore Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the iron ore market, specifically the pricing and demand dynamics in China, which is a major consumer of iron ore [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Pricing Trends**: The spot price for 62% Fe iron ore has decreased to $99 per ton from $105 per ton in late July, with expectations for prices to remain in the $95-100 per ton range for the remainder of Q3 [2][3][5]. 2. **Fundamental Support**: While consumption is expected to provide a floor at $95 per ton, the anticipated disappointment from stimulus measures and anti-innovation policies is likely to exert downward pressure on prices [2][3][5]. 3. **Future Price Forecast**: The forecast indicates a decline in iron ore prices to $90 per ton by the end of 2025, driven by weakening Chinese consumption and an increase in low-cost supply [2][3][16]. 4. **Stimulus Measures**: The July Politburo meeting did not announce major new stimulus, aligning with low expectations. Incremental easing may occur only if hard data shows significant growth headwinds in H2 [6][15]. 5. **Steel Demand from Property Sector**: No significant increase in steel demand from the property sector is expected due to a declining population, slower urbanization, and reduced demolition demand [7][8]. 6. **Infrastructure Sector Investment**: Although there is a positive growth expectation for steel demand in the infrastructure sector, recent investments are viewed as strategic rather than indicative of a cyclical recovery [8]. 7. **Production and Capacity Dynamics**: The weak labor market limits the potential for large-scale production cuts, and while steel production is expected to decline in H2, this is attributed to lower demand rather than mandated cuts [15][16]. 8. **Steelmaking Margins**: Steelmaking margins have improved but are expected to narrow due to rising coking coal prices and pressure on domestic steel prices, which may impact iron ore prices [15][16]. 9. **Supply Dynamics**: Global iron ore shipments are recovering, with Brazilian shipments up 2% year-over-year in July and Australian shipments up 5% year-over-year [34][36]. Additional Important Insights - **Long Steel Demand**: Long steel apparent demand is currently in line with last year but remains 36% below the 2016-2023 average, indicating a significant decline in demand [11][66]. - **Inventory Levels**: Mills' inventory of imported iron ore has returned to last year's levels, suggesting stable supply dynamics despite fluctuations in demand [28][30]. - **Market Positioning**: Managed money net positioning has shifted to a marginally long position, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [21]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities of the iron ore market, emphasizing the interplay between demand, supply, and policy measures that will shape future pricing and market dynamics.

Report Overview - The report is a Guotai Junan Futures' commodity research morning report for the black series dated August 5, 2025, covering various commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are likely to experience wide-range oscillations as market sentiment cools. Coke and coking coal are also forecasted to have wide-range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.96%. Some imported ore prices remained stable, while some domestic ore prices decreased. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Rebar's RB2510 contract closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil's HC2510 contract closed at 3,417 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.26%. Spot prices showed mixed changes. The trend strength for both is 0 [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan, and silicomanganese 2509 closed at 5,972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Coking coal's JM2509 contract closed at 1,005.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan or 2.1%, and coke's J2509 contract closed at 1,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.9%. Some spot prices of coking coal decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [16] Logs - The 2509 contract of logs closed at 842 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.5% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] Macro and Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period [4][9][17]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) rose by 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, marking three consecutive months of positive growth, indicating optimistic business expectations and overall market expansion [1][5] - The overall stability in the commodity market is supported by the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and increased macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment measures [5][7] - Despite the positive trends, global commodity price volatility and external uncertainties remain significant challenges for certain industries [1][5] Commodity Price Index Summary - The CBPI for July 2025 is reported at 111.4 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [3][6] - The black metal price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index rose to 130.1 points, up 1.1% month-on-month [3][7] - The energy price index decreased to 96.7 points, down 0.6% month-on-month, and the chemical price index fell to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month [3][8] Sector-Specific Insights - In July, 32 out of 50 monitored commodities saw price increases, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and coking coal rising by 10.2%, 9.8%, and 9.6% respectively [5][6] - The chemical sector experienced a decline, with methanol and cement prices dropping by 5% and 4.8% respectively, attributed to supply-demand imbalances and increased inventories [8][9] - The agricultural price index slightly decreased to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by high temperatures and lower-than-expected summer consumption [8][9] Market Dynamics - The rebound in black metal prices is driven by improved market confidence and rising prices of raw materials like coking coal and coke [6][7] - The energy sector's decline is linked to seasonal production slowdowns and weaker downstream demand [7][8] - The mineral price index fell to 71.7 points, down 2.7% month-on-month, due to weak downstream demand and increased inventory pressures [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The black - series commodity futures basically stabilized on August 4. The futures market decline recently cooled the previous positive sentiment, but the spot coal price remained firm due to good sales and pre - orders. The coking coal demand was strong with low inventory. The coke market was in a tight - balance state with positive sentiment and upward price momentum [1]. - After the fourth round of price increase for coke, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, but the inventory decreased, and the demand from steel mills was rigid, so the price had the power to run steadily and strongly [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - On August 4, the closing price of rebar was 3204 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3417 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the iron ore contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures showed a V - shaped trend [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The recent futures market decline cooled the sentiment, and some traders sold to realize profits. However, coal mines had good sales and pre - orders, so the pit - mouth coal price remained firm. The coking coal demand was strong supported by high -开工 rate of downstream coke enterprises and high iron - water output. The inventory was low, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream increasing. Last week, the inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons to 248.3 tons (the lowest since March 2024), the inventory of coal - washing plants decreased by 9.23 tons to 166.38 tons (the lowest in a year), the port inventory decreased by 3.53% to 493.94 tons, and the inventory of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased slightly to 992.73 tons and 803.79 tons respectively (both at the highest in nearly half a year). The market had a fear of high prices, and the proportion of unsold lots increased by 4.5% week - on - week, but the overall transaction price still trended upward [1]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price increase, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, with the profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants increasing only slightly by 9 yuan to - 45 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises cut production due to losses, affecting the daily output. The supply was tight. With the high daily iron - water output of steel mills, the procurement enthusiasm of steel mills and the intermediate trading links was high, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 8.11% to 73.62 tons (the lowest in 9 months). The cost support was significantly enhanced, and the market sentiment was positive. On August 3, some mainstream steel mills in the Hebei market planned to increase the price of wet coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on August 4, 2025 [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Double - Coking**: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The double - coking futures prices declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market had low inventory and strong demand, so there was still price support [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's export of angle steel and section steel has significantly increased in May 2025, with a total export volume of 770,000 tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.8% [1] - The export value for the same period reached 419 million USD, which is a year-on-year increase of 37.2% [1] - The data is sourced from China Customs and organized by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating a robust performance in the steel export sector [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The futures market sentiment has not stabilized yet, and the spot market mostly follows the fluctuations of futures prices. The market is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals after the hot money is squeezed out. Attention should be paid to the impact of pre - parade production cuts and the release of spot from unwound basis trading positions on the market. [2] - The "anti - involution" trading in coking coal and coke has reversed. Due to regulatory tightening and macro - events, there is a risk of further decline in the market, and it is recommended to be bearish on the approaching - delivery 00 contracts and take profit on previous basis trading positions. [3] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have fluctuated sharply due to the wavering policy expectations. Although the supply and demand have some resilience, the inventory pressure remains high. [5] - The iron ore sector has fluctuated sharply after the meetings. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, but the 01 contract still has support below and may rise after adjustment. [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: On August 1st, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3257.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan (-1.36%); HC2601 at 3403.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan (-0.84%); J2601 at 1624.00 yuan/ton, down 69.00 yuan (-4.08%); JM2605 at 7000 yuan/ton. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3203.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan (-1.23%); HC2510 at 3401.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan (-0.58%); J2509 at 1585.00 yuan/ton, down 49.00 yuan (-3.00%); JM2601 at 1092.50 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan (21.06%). [1] - **Cross - month Spreads**: On August 1st, RB2510 - 2601 was - 54.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 was - 2.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; 12509 - 2601 was 26.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; J2509 - 2601 was - 39.00 yuan/ton, up 14.50 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 27.50 yuan/ton, up 62.00 yuan. [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On August 1st, the coil - to - rebar spread was 198.00 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.09, down 0.02; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.45, down 0.08; the rebar paper profit was 60.80 yuan/ton, down 0.60 yuan; the coking paper profit was 131.98 yuan/ton, down 78.51 yuan. [1] Steel - The futures market sentiment has not stabilized. The spot market follows the futures price fluctuations. The macro - level policy expectations have a negative impact on prices, and the market is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of the release of unwound basis trading positions on the spot market and the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost support. [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The "anti - involution" trading has reversed. The fifth round of coke price increase is still possible but the steel - coke game has intensified. The futures prices have fallen sharply due to regulatory tightening and macro - events. It is recommended to be bearish on the approaching - delivery 00 contracts and take profit on previous basis trading positions. [3] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The prices have fluctuated sharply due to the wavering policy expectations. The supply and demand have some resilience, but the inventory pressure remains high. [5] Iron Ore - The sector has fluctuated sharply after the meetings. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, but the 01 contract still has support below and may rise after adjustment. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a general upward trend in prices, with 36 products experiencing price increases, 8 products seeing declines, and 6 remaining stable in late July 2025 compared to mid-July 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Changes Overview - In the black metal category, notable price increases include rebar (up 143.5 yuan, 4.5%) and hot-rolled ordinary plates (up 175.2 yuan, 5.3%) [3]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper rose by 1161.1 yuan (1.5%), while lead ingot decreased by 53.1 yuan (-0.3%) [3]. - Chemical products showed mixed results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 10.2 yuan (1.5%) and styrene decreasing by 120.9 yuan (-1.6%) [3]. Group 2: Specific Product Price Movements - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices remained stable, while gasoline (95) increased by 20.7 yuan (0.2%) [4]. - Coal prices varied, with coking coal rising significantly by 225.0 yuan (19.6%) and anthracite coal decreasing by 29.6 yuan (-3.4%) [4]. - In the agricultural products category, cotton prices increased by 132.1 yuan (0.9%), while the price of live pigs fell by 0.3 yuan (-2.1%) [4]. Group 3: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses a wide range of products across 31 provinces, involving over 2000 wholesalers and dealers [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, phone inquiries, and electronic communications to ensure accurate data [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index showed a downward trend with fluctuations, while the TMT sector remained strong. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the market faced adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - Due to the decline in PMI and the fall of risk assets, the bond futures market continued to rise. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. - The impact of US tariffs on inflation continued to emerge. Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were under pressure. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [9][10]. - The main contract of container shipping futures declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. - Most non - ferrous metals were under pressure. Copper prices were affected by the disappointment of US copper tariff expectations; aluminum prices were affected by the off - season and macro factors; other non - ferrous metals also faced different supply - demand and macro challenges [17][22][28]. - Black metals showed different trends. Steel prices turned to a volatile state; iron ore prices fluctuated with steel prices; coking coal and coke prices fluctuated sharply, and there were concerns about short - term peaks [42][45][49]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybean meal was supported by import concerns; the price of live pigs was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate; the price of corn was in a range - bound state [57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the main indexes opened lower and declined with fluctuations. The TMT sector rose against the trend, while the pro - cyclical sectors fell collectively. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and most of the basis of the main contracts was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: China's July official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index also decreased. Overseas, Trump announced new tariff policies [3]. - **Funding**: On July 31, the trading volume of the A - share market reached a new high, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank was 4.78 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference between market expectations and policies, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 28.32 billion yuan on July 31, with a net capital withdrawal of 4.78 billion yuan. After the cross - month period, the funding is expected to return to a loose state [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's July official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined, but still remained above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises maintained an expansion [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term to play the wave - repair market of bond futures and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: Trump reached a 90 - day short - term agreement with Mexico, maintaining the current tariffs. The US 6 - month core PCE price index increased year - on - year [7][8]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were affected by the decline in the non - ferrous sector [9]. - **Funding**: Some funds continued to flow into ETFs, supporting the price [10]. - **Outlook**: The price of gold is expected to be under pressure in the short term and test the support of the 100 - day moving average. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 US dollars [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 31, the spot prices of major shipping companies continued to decline [11]. - **Index**: As of July 28, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of July 31, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [11]. - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the main contract price was driven down by the falling spot price [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the trading sentiment was average [13]. - **Macro**: Multiple important meetings were held, and the US 50% electrolytic copper tariff expectation was disappointed [14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate was restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper was expected to increase in July [15]. - **Demand**: The short - term domestic demand was resilient, but there was marginal pressure in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16]. - **Logic**: The US copper tariff expectation was disappointed, and the non - US electrolytic copper market showed a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand", and the price was under pressure in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 77,000 to 79,000 yuan [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 31, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price of aluminum oxide declined, and the basis decreased. There was a risk of short - squeeze due to the low warehouse receipts [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum was expected to decline in July [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream was in the traditional off - season, and the starting rates of various industries were generally stable or slightly decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased slightly [21]. - **Logic**: The aluminum price declined, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation was strong. The price was under pressure in the short term [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 20,200 to 21,000 yuan [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was average [25]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc was expected to increase in July [26]. - **Demand**: The starting rates of the three primary processing industries were differentiated, and the demand was affected by the price increase [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the production growth rate was lower than expected. The demand was affected by the price increase, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 22,000 to 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On July 31, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was dull [28]. - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased and increased respectively [29]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In June, the starting rate of solder decreased, and the demand showed a weak trend. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in Sino - US negotiations and Myanmar's post - resumption inventory [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly, and the production in July was expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless steel demand was general, and the production of nickel sulfate decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [32]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the nickel price was under pressure. The supply of nickel ore was relatively loose, and the stainless steel demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range adjustment in the short term [33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was loose, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome was weakly stable [34]. - **Supply**: In July, the estimated production of stainless steel decreased, and the production of 300 - series decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price declined, and the terminal demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range shock in the short term [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 31, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the price of lithium hydroxide increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in July was expected to continue to increase. The recent supply was disturbed, and the production decreased last week [38]. - **Demand**: The demand was relatively stable, and the seasonal performance was weakened [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory began to decrease, the upstream inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate price was weak, and the trading core shifted to the ore end. The short - term supply uncertainty increased, and the price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to the macro - expectation changes and supply adjustment [41]. Financial Derivatives - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price decreased significantly, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: The molten iron production was stable at a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly. The production of rebar decreased seasonally, and the production of hot - rolled coil remained high [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the seasonal decline was not significant [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mainstream steel products was stable at a low level, and the off - season inventory accumulation was less than expected [42]. - **Viewpoint**: The market expectation cooled down, and the steel price turned to a volatile state. It is recommended to go long on dips [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders remained unchanged [43]. - **Futures**: The 09 and far - month contracts of iron ore decreased [43]. - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [44]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the steel mill's profit rate increased [44]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased [44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average unloading volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [44]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price was expected to follow the steel price. It is recommended to go long cautiously on a single - side and long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil in an arbitrage [45]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price decreased significantly, and the spot auction price fluctuated. The Mongolian coal price decreased [46][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the domestic coking coal auction was good. The Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down [46][49]. - **Demand**: The coking operating rate was stable, the downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream replenishment increased [47][49]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory decreased rapidly, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased at a low level [48][49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal price fluctuated sharply. The spot market was relatively stable, and the futures price had over - expected increase. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price decreased, and the spot factory price increased, while the port trade price decreased. The mainstream coking enterprises initiated the fifth - round price increase [50][53]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan, and different regions had different profit situations [50]. - **Supply**: The coke production was stable, and the coal mine production recovery was less than expected [50][53]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream demand provided support [51][53]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory continued to decrease, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [52][53]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke price had a short - term price increase expectation, but there was a risk of peaking and falling back. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [53]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the trading volume was small [55]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's soybean export volume in July was estimated, and China and the US held trade talks [55][56]. - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price was weak, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by import concerns. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs rebounded, and the prices in different regions increased [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet fattening decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [58][59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The near - month 09 contract had strong upward pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [59][60]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly, and the trading was light [61]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of different links decreased, and the feed enterprise's inventory days decreased slightly [62]. - **Market Outlook**: The import corn auction continued, and the impact was weakened. The short - term market was range - bound, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation was different [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as economic data, tariff policies, and government policies. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the gold market is affected by PCE data and tariff policies, showing a short - term weak trend; the stock index futures market is affected by domestic economic data and policies, and needs fundamental support; the bond market enters a favorable period but with a volatile upward trend [13][21][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US core PCE in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, better than expected. The hawkish stance of the Fed's interest - rate meeting reduces short - term interest - rate cut expectations. The gold price fell back below $3300, and it is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term [12][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Trump increased tariffs on Canada and extended the tariff period for Mexico, which led to a decrease in market risk appetite and a short - term strengthening of the dollar index [15][17][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council Executive Meeting proposed to implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action and enhance macro - policy effectiveness. Due to the PMI in July being lower than expected, the short - term domestic economic pressure increases, and the stock market has a correction. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The unexpected rebound of inflation data increases the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts. The US stock market's upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction caused by economic data falling short of expectations [23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, lower than expected. The Treasury bond futures enter a favorable period in August, but the upward trend is volatile, and it is necessary to grasp the rhythm when going long [27][28][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased by 6.71% month - on - month, and Indonesia raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil in August. The oil market is expected to fluctuate and correct, and it is recommended to go long on dips [31][32][33]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Vietnam's coal imports from January to June increased by 13.26% year - on - year. Affected by rainfall and policies, the short - term coal price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side policies [34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is running strongly. Recently, coking coal has been greatly affected by the macro and policies, and may stabilize in the short term after a continuous sharp decline. Pay attention to position management [4][35][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - India's Goa state resumed iron ore mining after 12 years. The iron ore price is mainly driven by sentiment in the short term. The fundamentals do not support sharp fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Aonong Biological's actual external guarantee balance reached 1 billion yuan. The short - term spot price of pigs may fall, and the contango strategy is still applicable for contract arbitrage [39][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continued to decline. The corn futures price started to return to its fundamentals after the weakening of the macro - sentiment. In the medium and long term, it is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, and it is recommended to hold new short positions [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of starch increased, but the downstream demand was still weak. The price difference between rice and flour is expected to remain low and fluctuate [44][45]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased week - on - week. Affected by weather and policy expectations, the steel price fell, and it is expected to have further downward pressure [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's copper production in June decreased by 6% year - on - year. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products. The market is worried about the outward transfer of US copper inventories, which suppresses the copper price. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach and pay attention to inventory changes [48][50][52]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot transaction average price has increased. The polysilicon price is expected to run between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in August. The price is expected to run between 8500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to pay attention to range - trading opportunities [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Glencore's nickel production in the second quarter decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Affected by macro - policies and fundamentals, the nickel price fell. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [59][60][61]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead smelter in the northwest plans to stop production. Affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals, the short - term Shanghai lead price is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [62][65]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Gatos Silver's zinc ore production in the second quarter increased by nearly 30%. Affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals, the Shanghai zinc price fell. It is recommended to take a short - position with a light position, pay attention to mid - term month - spread positive - arbitrage opportunities, and wait and see in the short term [66][68][69]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of Chinese LPG increased slightly, and the inventory rate decreased slightly. The 8 - month CP price was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term [69][70][71]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on July 31 decreased by 1.36%. The trading volume has not increased significantly. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [72][73]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price fell on July 31. The PX market is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend in the short term [74][75]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rates of texturing and weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to increase. The demand side needs further observation. The PTA price may be in a slightly upward shock in the short term [76][77][78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The transaction in the Shandong caustic soda market was moderate on July 31. The market is expected to fluctuate in the future [79][80][80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market adjusted in different directions on July 31. The pulp price is expected to follow the commodity market's correction [81][82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder market fell on July 31. The PVC price is expected to follow the commodity market's correction [83][84]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly slightly lowered. The bottle - chip price is expected to follow the fluctuation of polyester raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by going long on dips [84][85]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Hartmann Group increased its order for new - built container ships in China. The container freight rate has confirmed a downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to spot changes [86][87][88].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Decline [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1][3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the production of building materials slightly decreasing, inventory slightly decreasing, and apparent demand falling. The market has mixed expectations for anti - involution policy implementation, and the short - term steel futures may oscillate [1]. - For iron ore, supply has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and with the digestion of the "anti - involution" sentiment and concerns about military parade production restrictions, the short - term price is expected to decline [1]. - Coking coal supply is increasing, while coking enterprises are in production losses but still have a high enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke production is facing cost transfer pressure, and the game between steel mills and upstream is intense. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely, and market sentiment should be monitored [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon production profit has improved, demand has increased, and cost has support. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [3]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring Contract Spreads - Steel: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar is - 56.0 (down 19.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 22.0 (down 7.0); the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil is - 12.0 (down 8.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 2.0 (down 9.0) [4]. - Iron ore: The 9 - 1 spread is 23.0 (down 4.5), and the 1 - 5 spread is 20.5 (down 1.0) [4]. - Coke: The 9 - 1 spread is - 63.5 (down 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 52.5 (up 3.5) [4]. - Coking coal: The 9 - 1 spread is - 115.5 (down 21.5), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 34.0 (down 7.5) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The 9 - 1 spread is - 92.0 (down 18.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 30.0 (down 10.0) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The 9 - 1 spread is - 132.0 (down 26.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20.0 (down 6.0) [4]. Basis - Steel: The basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 125.0 (up 42.0), and that of the 01 - contract is 69.0 (up 23.0); the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil is 17.0 (up 30.0), and that of the 01 - contract is 5.0 (up 22.0) [4]. - Iron ore: The basis of the 09 - contract is 30.2 (down 0.9), and that of the 01 - contract is 53.2 (down 5.4) [4]. - Coke: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 98.0 (down 10.9), and that of the 01 - contract is - 161.5 (down 16.9) [4]. - Coking coal: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 79.0 (up 3.5), and that of the 01 - contract is - 194.5 (down 18.0) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 316.0 (up 96.0), and that of the 01 - contract is - 408.0 (up 78.0) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 258.0 (up 202.0), and that of the 01 - contract is - 390.0 (up 176.0) [4]. Spot Prices - Steel: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3440.0 (up 10.0), in Beijing is 3340.0 (unchanged), and in Guangzhou is 3480.0 (up 30.0); the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3500.0 (up 10.0), in Tianjin is 3500.0 (up 30.0), and in Guangzhou is 3610.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Iron ore: The spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port is 772.0 (down 9), and that of Super Special powder is 647.0 (down 10) [4]. - Coke: The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1420.0 (up 30.0) [4]. - Coking coal: The spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The spot price in Ningxia is 6000.0 (up 150.0), in Inner Mongolia is 5800.0 (unchanged), and in Guangxi is 5850.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The spot price in Ningxia is 5700.0 (up 150.0), in Inner Mongolia is 5650.0 (up 100.0), and in Qinghai is 5700.0 (up 150.0) [4]. Other Data - Rebar: The rebar futures profit is 131.9 (down 38.9), the long - process profit is 252.4 (up 24.3), and the short - process profit is 148.5 (unchanged) [4]. - Spread data: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 168.0 (up 12.0), the ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.2 (up 0.01), the ratio of coke to iron ore is 2.1 (up 0.08), the ratio of coking coal to iron ore is 1.5 (up 0.04), the ratio of rebar to coke is 2.0 (down 0.07), and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is - 108.0 (down 6.00) [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report provides historical price charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon main contracts from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon main contracts [16][17][18][20][22]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report presents historical spread charts of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][26][31][32][35][37]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - The report includes charts of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [39][40][42][44]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report provides charts of the rebar main - contract futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [43][45][49]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [51]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [52].