| | | | | | | | | Extern Assisted in | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/19 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2605 | J ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]

| | | | | | | | France & State Friday | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/18 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | 7000 | | 1000 | | | (元/吨) | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2605 | JM2609 ...

截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪铅和沪锌一同下跌，沪铅跌0.83%，沪锌跌0.73%。沪锡、沪 镍一同涨逾1%，沪锡涨1.73%，沪镍涨1.04%，其余内盘基本金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨 0.95%，铸造铝主连涨0.62%。 来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 此外，碳酸锂主连大涨7.61%，工业硅主连涨1.56%，多晶硅主连涨4.36%，多晶硅主连盘中最高冲至 61985元/吨，刷新其上市以来的历史新高。欧线集运主连跌0.68%报1699.8。 | 初始 代码 | | 名城 | ●米 | 最新 | 涨幅% | 派式失 | 总量 | 到面 | 製入价 | 英出价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | | 欧线集运主连 | 4 | 1699.8 | -0.68 | -11.7 | 2.42 万 | 2 | 1699.8 | 1700.3 | | | ecm | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | CLOOY | NYMEX原油 | 中 | 55.89 | 1.38 | 0.76 | ...

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3081 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 7 元/吨，涨幅为 0.23%，持仓减少 1.25 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.92 万吨。 | | | | 中钢协副会长呼吁钢企响应国家反"内卷式"恶性竞争，维护行业利益和消费者利益。市场对反内卷题材 | | | | 仍有预期，对市场信心形成一定提振。11 月投资数据继续走弱，粗钢及生铁产量处于低位，钢材市场处于 | | | | 供需双弱局面。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所上涨，收于 761 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价上涨 8 元/吨，涨 幅为 1%，成交 24 万手，增仓 1 万手。港口现货主流品种市场价格，现青岛港 PB 粉 783 涨 5 ...

| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年12月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 锰硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 | | | 今日盘面继续震荡反弹。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步下降，库存延续去化态势。热卷供需双降，库存缓慢下降，压力仍 有待缓解。 轶水产量继续回落，供应压力逐步缓解，下游承接能力不足，钢厂利润依然欠佳，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大, 关注唐山等地环保限产持续性。从11月统计数据看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造 ...

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘金属普跌，沪锡以高达3.15%的跌幅领跌，沪镍跌2.36%，沪铅、沪锌一同跌超 1%，沪铅跌1.44%，沪锌跌1.62%。其余金属跌幅波动均不大，氧化铝主连跌0.2%，铸造铝主连涨 0.14%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨1.27%，多晶硅主连涨1.48%，工业硅主连跌0.59%。欧线集运主连跌1.62%报 1686.8。 黑色系方面除不锈钢外均上涨，不锈钢跌1.83%，铁矿涨1.06%。双焦一同涨逾1%，焦煤涨1.33%，焦 煤涨1.34%。 外盘方面，截至15：03分，外盘基本金属普跌，仅伦铝和伦铅一同飘红，伦铝涨0.45%，伦铅涨 0.15%。伦锌以0.99%的跌幅林影碟，伦锡跌0.92%，其余金属跌幅波动均不大。 贵金属方面，截至15:03分，COMEX黄金跌0.46%，COMEX白银跌0.96%。国内方面，沪金跌0.6%，沪 银跌0.3%。 【国家发改委：加快健全扩大内需体制机制 推动清理汽车、住房等消费不合理限制性措施】国家发展 和改革委员会党组在《求是》杂志发表《坚定实施扩大内需战略》文章指出，加快健全扩大内需体制机 制。一方面，完善促进消费制度机制。推动 ...

| | | | | | | | Extern Expirition Production Comments of Children Comments of Children Comment | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/16 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月16日 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位,供应过剩格局难改,行业库存和交易所仓单持续上升,未来二个月 仓单过期流出压力丈。山西河南平均完全成本2850-2900元，现金成本核算仍有利润，形成规模减 产前盘面反弹空间有限,现货下跌确定性更强。 (原油) 欧盟理事会15日发布两份公告，宣布对俄罗斯采取新一轮制裁措施。自上周美国扣押一艘沟轮并对 与委内瑞拉有业务往来的航运公司和船只实施制裁以来，委内瑞拉的石油出口量急剧下降。然全球 原油供需愈发宽松背景下,美国主导的和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步 增大供应压力,油价承压降至年内低点。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续偏强运行。美联储会议后宽松交易延续,黄金逼近历史高点位置,如果实现突破则 贵金属强势表现有望延续。铂肥创上市以来新高，外盘强势突破前高压力位加速上涨。金银强势背 景下,相对低估值钩把受多头资金青睐,商业航天发展如火如荼,氢能板块用铂把存想象空间,供 应端的强刚性约束下，铂肥中长线多配节奏明确。今晚重点关注美国11月非农数据发布。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜冲高收回部分涨幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone than expected. The subsequent non - farm data will affect the direction of interest rate cut expectations. Domestically, the government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task for next year [2]. - In the short term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, with low - volatility trading. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market sentiment is weak, but the downside of the index is limited. The container shipping market for the European route will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [5][8][9]. - For commodities, precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - long term and volatile in the short term; base metals have different trends, such as copper showing an internal - weak and external - strong pattern, aluminum being oscillatingly strong, and zinc having short - term wide - range fluctuations; energy and chemical products also have diverse trends, like crude oil being weakly volatile, and LPG being oscillating; agricultural products have different outlooks, for example, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification, and the oil market is weakly operating [16][19][20][23][43][44][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the release of the US non - farm payroll report. The Fed's interest rate cut decision and domestic economic data, such as the industrial production in November showing resilience while consumption and investment facing pressure, are important factors affecting the market [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It continues the callback trend. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on the previous trading day. In the short term, it is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, supported by policy, seasonal factors, and the external environment [3][5]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index closed down, and the trading volume decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [6][8]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market closed down on Monday, and the market sentiment is weak. The economic data in November shows weakening economic momentum, but the market focus is not on the fundamentals. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand has not yet formed a clear impact on the bond market [8][9]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase is less than expected. The market is in a tug - of - war between the support of spot prices and the expectation of future capacity release. In the short term, the market will continue this situation, and different contracts need to pay attention to different factors [9][10][12] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose sharply at night. The Fed's expected loose monetary policy and the EU's relaxation of the fuel - vehicle ban are beneficial to the demand for platinum and palladium in automobile catalysts. It is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external price difference of platinum [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a high - level shock. Focus on the release of the US non - farm payroll report tonight. In the short term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and bullish in the medium - long term [17][18][19]. - **Copper**: The fixed - asset investment growth rate declined, and the copper price shows an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Pay attention to the high - level adjustment risk and support at 90,000 [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The trends are different. Aluminum is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the medium term; alumina is weakly operating; cast aluminum alloy is oscillatingly strong [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in short - term wide - range fluctuations. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show tight supply at the mine end and support from inventory de - stocking [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is in a technical correction. Although the supply at the mine end is tight, the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected to enter a wide - range shock stage [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillatingly strong. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium - long term, it has a long - value support from the demand side [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space in the medium - long term; polysilicon is in a wait - and - see situation, with the trading logic mainly based on technical aspects [29][30]. - **Lead**: The inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The price is in a weak shock, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [31]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillatingly weak. After the central economic work conference, the market pricing returns to the fundamentals. The supply may slow down in the reduction, and the demand is seasonally weak. The prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [32][33]. - **Iron Ore**: The price first fell and then rose. The trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is expected to have limited downside space [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are in a weak consolidation. The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, and the demand is weak, resulting in a marginal oversupply. The supply of coke may increase in the future, and the price is likely to continue to decline [36][37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They face a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with limited upside space. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a high level [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is in an oscillating state. The high - price pulp has poor sales, and the demand is weak. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply factors. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. It is weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel [42][43]. - **LPG**: It is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The external market is in an oscillating pattern, and the domestic spot is relatively strong [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driving force, and it fluctuates with the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for polyester will decline in the later stage. The PTA processing fee has limited repair space [46][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The supply negative feedback appears, but it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand is declining, and the supply has some support signals. The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [50][52]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse - spread view. The 1 - 5 spread shows a positive - spread pattern, mainly due to market trends and unloading problems. It is recommended to add positions in the 1 - 5 reverse - spread [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side still has strong support. The supply pressure may be alleviated in January, and the demand has some support. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot situation [56][57]. - **PE**: Pay attention to the spot situation. It shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and it is difficult to form strong support [58][59]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene's inventory decreased on Monday. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [60][61][62]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cracking is weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking is rising. The supply is tightening, and the cracking has an upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom - space is limited, and the winter - storage policies are gradually introduced. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is weakening, and the cost side is weakly oscillating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [65][66]. - **Rubber**: The macro atmosphere is warm, but the fundamental benefits are limited. The supply of natural rubber is slightly tightened, the downstream demand support is weakening, and the inventory is still accumulating. It is expected to oscillate [68][70]. - **Urea**: The futures and spot prices tend to converge. The supply is high, and the price is under pressure, but the export policy weakens the downward driving force. It is expected to oscillate [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They fluctuate at a low level. Soda ash has an increasing over - supply expectation, and glass may have some production - line cold - repairs in the future. Caustic soda has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline weakly [73][74][75]. - **Log**: The short positions left the market intensively, and the price rose and then fell. The price is in a game state, with limited trading value [76][78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is weakly oscillating. The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is not strong. It will remain in a weak state before more maintenance [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The supply - demand situation in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an over - supply pressure, and the far - month is stronger [82][83]. - **Oilseeds**: The customs - clearance time is extended. The import soybean buying sentiment is reduced, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. The external market of soybeans is weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive - spread trend in the short term [84][85][86]. - **Oils**: They are weakly operating. Palm oil is under supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by market news. The short - term price center of gravity is moving down [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to downstream orders. The domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight in the long term, and the price is relatively strong, but there is short - term pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price hits a new low. Affected by the high - supply situation in major producing countries, the sugar price is in a weak state [90][91][92]. - **Eggs**: The chicken culling is in progress. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, but there is a turning point. It is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [93]. - **Apples**: The price has a large retracement. The consumption is not smooth, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips [94][95]. - **Jujubes**: The new - product supply is sufficient. The new - season jujube production is expected to decrease slightly, and the short - term price has limited downside space. Pay attention to downstream pre - holiday purchases [96][97].