| | | | 11/11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURE | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月02日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续回落。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降，压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落，1月PMI回落至4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs observation, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - For precious metals, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude due to multiple factors [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term pressures, some metals may stabilize in the future [16][19]. - For black building materials, the market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations [34]. - For energy chemicals, different strategies such as taking profit on rallies, short - selling, etc. are proposed for different products [61][65]. - For agricultural products, different strategies are given according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as short - selling on rebounds, waiting for callbacks to buy, etc. [84][92] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, China's January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from the previous month, and precious metals tumbled [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - run as policies support the capital market, but pay attention to short - term market rhythms [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had different price changes on Friday. The government emphasized the economic work in 2026, and the 2025 national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% compared to 2024 [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices plunged due to Warsh's nomination and other factors. The short - term dollar is expected to remain strong, and emerging markets may face capital outflows and currency depreciation [9]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 950 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by geopolitical and Fed news, the copper price fell on Friday. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term pressure factors, the copper price is expected to stabilize gradually. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 102000 - 106000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12600 - 13500 dollars/ton [16]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fell on Friday. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [17]. - **Strategy**: If the precious - metal volatility decreases and domestic inventory performs better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3080 - 3180 dollars/ton [19]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The zinc price followed the sector. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [20]. - **Lead**: The lead industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [21]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has a large short - term decline risk. It is recommended to sell on rallies. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 12.0 - 15.0 million yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 1.6 - 1.8 million dollars/ton [22]. - **Tin**: The tin price may have a large short - term correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47000 - 51000 dollars/ton [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium main contract is 136000 - 158000 yuan/ton [26]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 2950 yuan/ton [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: Maintain a bullish view. It is recommended to lightly build long positions around 14000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14700 yuan/ton [30]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term price is supported by supply - side disturbances [32]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased on Friday. The inventory of rebar is accumulating, while that of hot - rolled coil is slightly decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: The black - building materials market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory changes, plate - demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [34]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract price fell on Friday. The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel - mill inventory is increasing [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to steel - mill restocking and iron - water production rhythms [36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated on January 30th. The coking - coal price is in a rebound cycle, and the coke price is approaching a long - term downward trend line [37]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to market - sentiment fluctuations [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass price increased on Friday, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price increased on Friday, and the inventory increased. The market is expected to have a weak and stable fluctuation in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased on January 30th. The prices of both are in an oscillatory state [47]. - **Strategy**: The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Pay attention to manganese - ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial - silicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of the large - factory production - reduction plan [51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Pay attention to terminal - demand feedback and policy adjustments [53][54]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber market has large price fluctuations. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - enterprise开工率 has different changes, and the inventory is increasing [56][57]. - **Strategy**: Trade according to the short - term disk, set stop - losses, and consider building positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil main contract price increased, and the inventories of some refined oils changed. The gasoline inventory increased, while the diesel and fuel - oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [61]. Other Energy Chemicals - **Methanol**: The current price has priced in most of the geopolitical premium, and the upside space is under pressure [63]. - **Urea**: The import window is opened, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [65]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The pure - benzene price increased, and the styrene price decreased. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is recommended to gradually take profit [66][68]. - **PVC**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to changes in production capacity and开工率 [69][70]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene - glycol market has a high load and high inventory. The supply - demand situation needs to be improved through production reduction [71][72]. - **PTA**: The PTA market is in the Spring - Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Pay attention to the risk of processing - fee correction and mid - term long - position opportunities [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and pay attention to long - position opportunities following the crude - oil price [75][76]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The PE futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [77][79]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The PP futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [80][81]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mainly increased over the weekend. The supply is large in the short - term, and the demand is relatively stable [83]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support level [84]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price generally decreased over the weekend. The supply is normal, and the demand is weak [85]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month contract may continue to correct its valuation. It is recommended to short - sell [86]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein - meal futures price fell on Friday. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories decreased. The overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season [87][89]. - **Strategy**: The protein - meal price may be bottoming out [89]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil - and - fat futures price fell on Friday. The Malaysian palm - oil production decreased in January, and the domestic three - major oil inventories decreased [91][92]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback and then try to go long [92]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price fluctuated on Friday. The Brazilian and Indian sugar productions had different changes, and China's sugar imports increased [93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern - hemisphere harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price fell on Friday. The spinning - mill开机率 decreased, and the global cotton production and consumption have different changes [96][97]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room to rise in the long - term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths until the US economy faces a recession crisis. The long - end interest rate in the US is likely to rise, and the US economy may overheat. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and the trading will focus on economic and policy factors. Gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver's high is expected to be around $120 per ounce. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to Fed rate cuts and supply - demand gaps. The electrolytic aluminum market may have an upward trend, with a global supply shortage [10][35][98]. Summary by Directory Asset Allocation: Macroeconomic Contradictions and Allocation Strategies - The US Treasury drives currency and inflation. The continuous growth of US Treasury debt is backed by GDP. Since 2000, the US government's expenditure/GDP ratio has been rising, and the deficit rate is high. If the stock market has a crisis, it may bring opportunities for commodities. The sensitivity of non - ferrous metals to interest rates has increased since 2020, and the game between the Fed and global commodity inflation has intensified [4][13]. - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths. The US economy may overheat, and the long - end interest rate is likely to rise. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and trading will focus on economic and policy factors [10][35]. Precious Metals: Where Are Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Headed? - Gold is at a new starting point. Due to geopolitical risks and dovish Fed expectations, it is recommended to increase gold allocation, focus on unilateral long positions and call option strategies. For silver, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider long positions in the gold - silver ratio. In 2026, gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver is expected to have a high of around $120 per ounce [29][35]. - Platinum and palladium are driven by the precious metals sector. They have strong follow - up elasticity but are also affected by the callback of gold and silver. The current upward trend of platinum is relatively healthy, and there is a possibility of a new high. Palladium may have supplementary upward momentum [36]. Copper: How to Choose the Trading Mode under the Background of Weak Reality and Strong Expectations? - In terms of trading, copper price volatility has declined, and the positions of SHFE and LME copper are at historical highs. The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the spot import loss has narrowed. Globally, the total copper inventory is at a historical high, and the LC spread has narrowed [37][44][48]. - The global copper mine supply in 2025 was lower than expected, and the increase in 2026 is limited. The supply disturbance has increased, mainly due to factors such as reduced ore grades, strikes, and geopolitics. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the refined copper output is expected to increase by 68.75 million tons in 2026 [62][66][69]. - In terms of consumption, high - quality consumption such as AI computing centers and new energy consumption contribute significantly to copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" in China supports power grid investment, which will drive copper consumption. Traditional industries also show an increase in copper consumption, but there are differences among countries [75][80][92]. - The global refined copper supply will shift from surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026. It is expected that the global copper supply will have a shortage of 197,000 tons in 2026, and the Chinese market will have a shortage of 191,500 tons. Copper prices are expected to remain firm in 2026 [95][96][98]. Electrolytic Aluminum: How to Grasp the Contradictions and Rhythms after the Abnormal Breakthrough? - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum market was in a state of shock convergence. In the fourth quarter, the stock - futures linkage opened up the upward elasticity. In 2026, it is expected that the market will continue the upward - looking trend, with a global supply shortage of 420,000 - 760,000 tons. The short - term rhythm needs to pay attention to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, and the risks include macro - recession and over - production in Indonesia [100][101][104]. - Currently, the Shanghai aluminum is in a high - level shock, with a neutral - strong position. The short - term micro - demand is weak, but the macro - risk preference is optimistic, and it has marginal upward momentum [110]. Over - the - Counter Options: How to Use Option Hedging Tools under High Volatility and High Prices? - For long positions, when the price is high, consider replacing with in - the - money call options to retain the upside potential and control the maximum drawdown. You can also use spread options to optimize costs with a capped upside [118][122]. - For selling hedging of inventory, consider buying put collar options to optimize the hedging cost, limit inventory price fluctuations between $100,000 - $120,000, and receive an option premium of $150 per ton [126].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高后大幅回落。本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下 降，压力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。随着有色贵金 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高后大幅回落。本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下 降，压力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。随着有色贵金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market (including rebar and hot-rolled coils) is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Rebar production has slightly increased, inventory accumulation has accelerated, and apparent demand has declined. However, the overall inventory pressure is not significant, and with the expectation of macro - policy easing, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. The supply side shows a slight increase in global shipments, while the demand side sees a decrease in molten iron production and continuous inventory accumulation in ports and steel mills [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be volatile and slightly strong. For coking coal, supply is stable but may contract marginally, and demand has weakened. For coke, supply has decreased in some areas due to environmental policies, and demand from steel mills is mainly for on - demand procurement [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be volatile. The manganese silicon market is driven by cost expectations, with limited demand support and high inventory. The silicon iron market is pushed by sentiment, with weak cost support and a slight increase in inventory [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - Rebar: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 41,000 lots in positions. Spot prices rose, and national building materials trading volume was 72,900 tons. This week, national rebar production increased by 280 tons to 1.9983 million tons, social inventory increased by 232,800 tons to 3.264 million tons, factory inventory increased by 150 tons to 1.4913 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton (2%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease of 9,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments were stable with a slight decline, and global shipments slightly rebounded. There were 5 new blast furnace overhauls and 7 blast furnace复产, and molten iron production decreased by 120 tons to 2.2798 million tons. Port and steel mill inventories continued to accumulate [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (2.69%), with a decrease of 21,423 lots in positions. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan to 1630 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased by 7 yuan. Supply is stable but may contract marginally, and demand has weakened [1]. Coke - The coke 2605 contract closed at 1723 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton (2.32%), with a decrease of 1708 lots in positions. The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port increased by 20 yuan to 1470 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises reduced production due to environmental policies, and steel mills' demand is mainly for on - demand procurement [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5926 yuan/ton, up 2%. The main contract positions decreased by 12,587 lots to 362,400 lots. The market price in some areas increased by 50 yuan/ton. Cost is the main driver of the market, with limited demand support and high inventory [1][3]. Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5736 yuan/ton, up 2.17%. The main contract positions decreased by 33,983 lots to 138,700 lots. The price in some areas increased. Production decreased slightly, demand is mainly for on - demand procurement before the festival, cost support is weak, and inventory increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron, as well as profit data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 - 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026 [16][17][19][21]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026 [24][25][26][31][32][34][36]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It presents historical spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [37][39][40]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report shows the historical profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2021 - 2026 [42][46].

| | | | | | | | | HE BE ENT | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/29 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel: The unilateral steel market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to basis opportunities. With the seasonal factor becoming more prominent, the spot volume and price are weakening marginally. The market can be treated with an oscillating mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions. The hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spread can still be rolled for operation [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are mainly oscillating. The supply is high while the demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the market is likely to fall under pressure in the future [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market of coking coal and coke is weakening, and the futures market is also oscillating downward. The market is in the off-season, with weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to cash in the spot at a high price before the Spring Festival and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [5]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatingly strong pattern due to the "resumption of production + replenishment" support. In the long term, the pressure from port inventory is significant. It is suggested that medium - and long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices of steel decreased slightly on Tuesday, and trading volume continued to cool down. The futures prices moved in a narrow range. The black sector is in an interval oscillation. Due to seasonal factors, the spot volume and price are weakening. The demand for building materials is decreasing seasonally. Steel mills still have the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through the basis. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled for operation [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Recently, the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have been oscillating. The supply side has occasional fluctuations. The demand side is poor as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are not good, and the iron - water output adjustment pressure is large. The overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The alloy plants' profits are not good, but the production is still high. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. There are policy benefits and cost support, but the market is likely to fall under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first round of coke price increase was shelved. Downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The online auction has more unsuccessful bids. The coking coal price index has decreased. The Mongolian coal market is still cold. On the futures side, with the high - level correction of silver, the market sentiment has cooled down. The market is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The coal mine supply is recovering, but the downstream procurement has slowed down. It is recommended to cash in the spot at a high price before the Spring Festival and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of accelerated resumption of production in February and the pre - Spring Festival replenishment have a great impact on the transfer of iron ore inventory, which is one of the reasons for the relatively high iron ore price in the short term. After the replenishment expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will still be the root cause of the iron ore pressure. In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatingly strong pattern, but in the long term, the upward pressure is obvious. It is suggested that medium - and long - term investors short at the pressure level [6].

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 27 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：风格逆转 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：资金小幅收敛，债市窄幅波动 4 | | 蛋白粕：产量维持高位 | 盘面仍有压力 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧 | 郑糖价格底部震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：中加菜籽贸易扰动，油脂震荡上涨 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏强，盘面冲高回落 7 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 现货继续下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 9 | | | 苹果：节前走货加速，春节备货积极性增加 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：情绪较为乐观 | 棉价有所支撑 11 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 13 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：消息面扰动叠加技术性调整 金银现"过山车"行情 16 ...