Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 26 products experiencing price increases, 22 seeing declines, and 2 remaining stable in late October 2025 compared to mid-October 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) price is 3122.3 CNY per ton, up by 11.8 CNY, a rise of 0.4% [5] - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) price is 3281.7 CNY per ton, up by 17.4 CNY, a rise of 0.5% [5] - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) price is 3425.5 CNY per ton, down by 19.8 CNY, a decline of 0.6% [5] - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) price is 3319.6 CNY per ton, down by 6.7 CNY, a decline of 0.2% [5] - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) price is 4096.3 CNY per ton, down by 9.8 CNY, a decline of 0.2% [5] - Angle steel (5) price is 3412.6 CNY per ton, down by 4.0 CNY, a decline of 0.1% [5] Group 2: Price Changes in Non-Ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) price is 86808.8 CNY per ton, up by 1378.8 CNY, a rise of 1.6% [6] - Aluminum ingot (A00) price is 21098.8 CNY per ton, up by 192.1 CNY, a rise of 0.9% [6] - Lead ingot (1) price is 17150.0 CNY per ton, up by 229.2 CNY, a rise of 1.4% [6] - Zinc ingot (0) price is 22145.0 CNY per ton, up by 135.0 CNY, a rise of 0.6% [6] Group 3: Price Changes in Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) price is 714.3 CNY per ton, up by 59.6 CNY [6] - Caustic soda (liquid caustic, 32%) price is 869.3 CNY per ton, down by 7.8 CNY, a decline of 0.9% [6] - Methanol (first grade) price is 2161.3 CNY per ton, down by 51.1 CNY, a decline of 2.3% [6] - Pure benzene (industrial grade) price is 5414.7 CNY per ton, down by 174.6 CNY, a decline of 3.1% [6] - Styrene (first grade) price is 6437.9 CNY per ton, down by 108.1 CNY, a decline of 1.7% [6] Group 4: Price Changes in Energy Products - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) price is 4237.1 CNY per ton, up by 396.9 CNY, a rise of 10.3% [7] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) price is 4240.4 CNY per ton, down by 130.5 CNY, a decline of 3.0% [7] - Gasoline (95 National VI) price is 8093.6 CNY per ton, down by 169.4 CNY, a decline of 2.1% [7] - Diesel (0 National VI) price is 6791.8 CNY per ton, down by 88.6 CNY, a decline of 1.3% [7] Group 5: Price Changes in Agricultural Products - Rice (Japonica) price is 3919.6 CNY per ton, down by 20.0 CNY [8] - Wheat (National Standard Grade 3) price is 2468.6 CNY per ton, up by 23.5 CNY, a rise of 1.0% [8] - Corn (Yellow Corn Grade 2) price is 2152.8 CNY per ton, down by 1.5 CNY, a decline of 0.1% [8] - Cotton (White Cotton Grade 3) price is 14505.4 CNY per ton, up by 239.5 CNY, a rise of 1.7% [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the text. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The commodity market oscillated last week, closing down 0.27% overall, with only the black sector rising 1.96%, while non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.36%, 0.61%, 0.62%, and 0.97% respectively [1]. - The Fed cut interest rates and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1st, but Powell's stance was hawkish, and geopolitical uncertainties, along with a rebound in the US dollar index, may lead to short - term oscillations in the commodity market [1]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may oscillate at high levels; non - ferrous metals may operate stably; the black sector may face pressure; energy prices may oscillate in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term; the chemical industry may oscillate; and in the agricultural products sector, meal is expected to be stronger than oil in the short term [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Summary - **Overall Market**: The commodity market oscillated last week, closing down 0.27%. The black sector was the only one to rise, up 1.96%, while other sectors declined [1]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were apples, iron ore, and coking coal, with increases of 4.38%, 3.76%, and 3% respectively. The top - losing varieties were methanol, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, with declines of 4.05%, 3.92%, and 3.47% respectively [1]. - **Volatility and Capital**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with most varieties in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black, and chemical sectors seeing an increase in volatility. The overall market capital scale decreased, with only the black sector seeing an increase in capital, and outflows mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. 2. Sector - by - Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: After a short - term oversell, the sector rebounded last week. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and ended balance - sheet reduction, but Powell's hawkish stance and policy disagreements among officials, along with the US government shutdown in a game stage, may lead to high - level oscillations in the sector [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index, and China's PMI unexpectedly declined. The supply side remains tight, but the terminal is weak, and inventories have slightly increased. The sector may operate stably in the short term due to expected incremental stimulus policies and a suspension of trade frictions [2]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to improve last week, production increased, and inventories continued to decline. Hot metal production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate reached a new low this year. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be relieved. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and there are expectations for safety production assessments in the coking coal main production areas, but steel mills have a strong desire to lower raw material prices. The sector may face pressure in the short term [2]. - **Energy**: US EIA data showed that crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories declined more than expected, supporting oil prices. However, the Fed's negative guidance on a December interest - rate cut, the easing of Sino - US relations, and OPEC +'s decision to increase production in December limit the rebound height of oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken in the medium term. With a lack of more positive factors, it may oscillate in the short term. For building materials, the weak reality persists, with rising costs and decreasing inventories, and it may fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: US soybeans are supported by optimistic trade expectations, and meal performance is strong. Palm oil in Malaysia has not shown seasonal production cuts, and with weak export demand, the risk of a decline in oils has increased. Meal is expected to be stronger than oil in the short term [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the total scale of gold ETFs decreasing by 2.91% and the total trading volume decreasing by 4.22% [33]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy and chemical ETF had a weekly return of - 0.83%, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a 2.22% return, the non - ferrous metals futures ETF had a 0.20% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a - 0.12% return. The total scale of commodity ETFs decreased by 1.83%, and the total trading volume decreased by 6.43% [33]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment trading has temporarily ended, and the focus will return to the industrial supply side [2]. - For steel, the long - term industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production. In the early stage of production cuts, it may actively suppress furnace materials, and in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance [3]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight currently, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - For iron ore, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2605 was 3166.00 yuan/ton (-18.00, -0.57%), HC2605 was 3318.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2605 was 776.50 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.58%), J2605 was 1916.50 yuan/ton (-22.00, -1.13%), JM2605 was 1354.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +1.10%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2601 was 3106.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +0.48%), HC2601 was 3308.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2601 was 800.00 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.56%), J2601 was 1777.00 yuan/ton (-20.00, -1.11%), JM2601 was 1286.00 yuan/ton (-12.00, -0.92%) [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads on October 31**: RB2601 - 2605 was -60.00 yuan/ton (-13.00), HC2601 - 2605 was -10.00 yuan/ton (+4.00), I2601 - 2605 was 23.50 yuan/ton (-1.00), J2601 - 2605 was -139.50 yuan/ton (+0.50), JM2601 - 2605 was -68.00 yuan/ton (+3.00) [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits on October 31**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.88 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38 (-0.01), the rebar disk profit was -160.25 yuan/ton (+8.88), the coking disk profit was 66.62 yuan/ton (-6.84) [1]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Tianjin rebar was 3170.00 yuan/ton (-40.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3320.00 yuan/ton (-30.00), Tangshan billet was 2970.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the Platts Index was 107.40 (-0.30) [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (-50.00), the billet - to - product spread was 240.00 yuan/ton (+30.00), and Rizhao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Other Spot Prices on October 31**: Alumina was 733.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), a certain product was 775.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), Ganqimao Du coking coal was 1390.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1530.00 yuan/ton (0.00), and Qingdao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Basis on October 31**: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton (+10.00), RB main contract was 104.00 yuan/ton (0.00), I main contract was 44.00 yuan/ton (0.00), J main contract was -96.84 yuan/ton (+9.50), JM main contract was 134.00 yuan/ton (+2.00) [1]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: After the macro - events are realized, the market focus may return to the industry. The static supply - demand is healthy, but market confidence is insufficient. The steel production is expected to decline gradually, which may first suppress furnace materials and then drive the sector to rise [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by the macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the 05 contract for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Manufacturing**: In October, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Supply contracted (3 - month average: the production index was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), demand declined (new orders were 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (finished - product inventory up 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, raw - material inventory down 0.1 percentage points to 47.9) [3]. - **Non - manufacturing**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Supply slowed (3 - month average: the employee index was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), demand increased (new orders were 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (inventory was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month) [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Eight industries were in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and 3 less year - on - year [9]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Thirteen industries were in the expansion range, 5 more month - on - month and 1 more year - on - year [9]. 3.2 Demand: Focus on the Improvement of Automobile and Textile Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [16]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service new orders decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, while construction new orders increased 1.1 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined [16]. 3.3 Supply: Focus on the Decline of Civil Engineering and the Improvement of Automobile and Pharmaceutical Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the production index in October was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Seven industries improved month - on - month, and 8 declined. The employee index was 48.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Eleven industries improved month - on - month, and 4 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the employee index in October was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 3 declined [24]. 3.4 Price: Focus on the Decline of Ferrous Metals and the Improvement of Aviation - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the ex - factory price index in October was 48.3, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries' ex - factory prices improved month - on - month, and 6 declined. The profit trend in March decreased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, continuing to converge [32]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in October was 47.9, unchanged month - on - month. Service was unchanged, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 5 declined. The profit in March increased 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, with service unchanged and construction increasing 2.7 percentage points month - on - month [32]. 3.5 Inventory: Focus on the De - stocking of Non - ferrous Metals, Postal, and Construction Decoration Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the finished - product inventory in October increased 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Nine industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined. The raw - material inventory decreased 0.1 percentage points to 47.9. Eight industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined [39]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing inventory in October was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Service increased 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, and construction increased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. Four industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 11 declined [39]. 3.6 Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts The report provides detailed data on various manufacturing industries' PMI, including specific values, month - on - month, year - on - year, and three - year average changes for multiple indicators such as new orders, production, and inventory in industries like special equipment, general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others [47][49][54].

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年11月02日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 螺纹&热卷观点：淡季交易预期，关注反弹机会 1、钢材观点：淡季交易预期，关注反弹机会 2、铁矿周度观点：宏观预期向好，高位震荡 3、煤焦周度观点：供需现实偏紧，高位震荡 4、铁合金观点：板块情绪扰动叠加基本面矛盾，价格宽幅震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. Some planning contents may have medium - to long - term impacts on major asset classes. For example, strategic positions of science, technology, and emerging industries are strengthened; there are impacts on consumption, investment, anti - involution, macro - economic policies, financial markets, RMB internationalization, and supply chain security [9][10]. - For different asset classes: - Equity index: The market is expected to consolidate at the end of the year and has an offensive window before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [2]. - Government bonds: The short - term impact is limited, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias in November and December [2]. - Commodities: The demand - pull effect will diverge, with new energy - related demand growth likely to benefit more [3]. - Energy transition and carbon neutrality: Focus on the shift between traditional and new energy sources, and carbon prices may fluctuate upward [3]. - Technological self - reliance and advanced manufacturing: Sectors related to new - quality productive forces are expected to maintain rapid growth [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Economy - On October 28, the Proposals and the Explanation were released. The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. In terms of structure, compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline, the importance of opening - up and social welfare protection chapters has increased. Digital development is incorporated into the science and technology chapter, new - type urbanization is merged into regional economic layout, and two other chapters are consolidated into Part III [8][9]. - Qualitative planning is made for the next five - year key tasks, with quantitative targets and detailed arrangements to be determined in the Plan Outline. Some planning contents may impact major asset classes: - Science, technology, and emerging industries: Stocks and related commodities in the technology sector may benefit as key technological fields are expected to attract more capital and real demand [10]. - Consumption: "Vigorously boost consumption" may lead to relaxed restrictions on real estate and vehicle purchases, benefiting related stocks and commodities [12]. - Investment: The proportion of construction - related demand in commodities may decline, while products related to "a better life" may have incremental demand [12]. - Anti - involution: Policy attention on key sectors' prices will continue, curbing disorderly competition and regulating local government investment - promotion practices [13]. - Macroeconomic policy: The pricing logic of refined oil products may change due to potential consumption tax reform [13]. - Financial markets: The equity market will focus more on shareholder returns, and the futures and derivatives markets may enter a new development stage [13]. - RMB internationalization: The central level of RMB exchange rate volatility may decline [14]. - Supply chain security: Certain strategic minerals may see incremental demand [14]. 3.2 Equity Index - The equity market has fully priced in short - term policy positives, and the medium - term upward trend is consolidated. Adopt a long - term perspective with short - term tactical operations, focusing on four policy themes: - Stabilize growth: Expect further strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustments [15][16]. - Manufacturing and technology: Emphasize advanced manufacturing and self - reliance, highlighting emerging and future industries and key fields [17]. - Optimize traditional industries: Require major cyclical industries to enhance their position and competitiveness, which may increase leading enterprises' market share [18]. - Boost domestic demand: Focus on people's livelihood, but the shift to consumption - driven growth takes time. The stock market is expected to be optimistic before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [19][20]. 3.3 China's Government Bonds - The Proposals convey a medium - to long - term policy tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" with high - quality development as the theme. The weight of economic growth may increase, and growth sources and modes may adjust. - Regarding monetary policy, it aims to improve the central banking system, build a sound monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macroprudential governance system. The next stage of building the macroprudential governance framework focuses on four areas [22][23]. - The short - term impact on the bond market is limited. In November and December, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias, influenced by monetary policy, year - end institutional allocations, and fund fee reform [24]. 3.4 Commodities - On the supply side, the Proposals call for optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, which will support commodity prices through supply elasticity management in different sectors such as ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products [26]. - On the demand side, policies support economic growth and set a floor for commodity demand, but the impact varies by sector. New energy - related metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium will see clear demand growth, while other commodities face different challenges and opportunities [27]. - The commodities market is entering a phase of structural divergence. Short - term policy expectations may boost sentiment, but long - term trends depend on fundamentals [28]. 3.5 Energy transition and Carbon Neutrality - Energy: The Proposals emphasize accelerating new energy system construction, promoting green transformation, and increasing new energy supply. They also call for developing new energy storage and strengthening power grid construction, which may increase demand for certain metals. For fossil energy, consumption is expected to peak, and the consumption structure may change [30]. - Carbon market: The Proposals mention expanding the carbon market and developing a voluntary emission reduction market. In the short term, carbon prices are affected by quota carry - over policies; in the long term, they may fluctuate upward due to tightened quota allocations and market expansion [31]. 3.6 Technological Self - Reliance and Advanced Manufacturing - The 15th Five - Year Plan Proposals elevate scientific and technological self - reliance to the second main objective. It emphasizes advanced manufacturing and breakthroughs in "bottleneck" technologies. Investment in key areas like integrated circuits is expected to maintain rapid growth, driving related material demand [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows increased prices and better spot trading volume. The "15th Five-Year Plan" may issue a proposal for clearer guidance, and the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations and APEC meeting may boost market risk appetite. The steel inventory is back in the destocking phase, and the high - production dilemma needs time to resolve. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, carbon elements may outperform iron elements [2]. - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. The overall black - sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Although there are factors supporting the rebound, the oversupply situation restricts price increases [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke futures continue to challenge the "anti - involution" trading high. The second round of spot price increases has been fully implemented. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coal and coke may ease [6]. - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating. The supply side has no major problems, but high iron - making water production may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in shipments from Simandou restricts the price ceiling [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On October 27, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, JM2605, HC2605, J2605 were 3312.00, 400, 4000, 1910.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price increases of 45.00, 45.00, 13.00, 15.00 yuan and increases of 1.45%, 1.73%, 1.38%, 0.79%. The near - month contract closing prices of HC2601, RB2601, J2601, JM2601 were 3299.00, 3100.00, 786.50, 1263.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price increases of 15.00, 47.00, 47.00 yuan and increases of - 0.96%, 1.45%, 0.79%, 1.54% [1]. - The spot trading volume has recovered to 120,000 tons, which is at a relatively high level this year. The overall steel inventory is back in the destocking phase, in line with the seasonality. The "Silver October" still has a peak - season demand release, but the demand has no strong explosive power, and the high - production dilemma needs time to resolve [2]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see or fluctuating approach for single - side trading; observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil when the spread of the 01 contract is below 150. For futures - spot reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking and wait for positive arbitrage [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The rebound space is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. The overall black - sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Although there are factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a positive macro - environment, the oversupply situation restricts price increases [3][5]. - Suggestions: Gradually take profit on previous long positions [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On October 27, the spot prices of coking coal and coke showed certain changes. The second round of spot price increases for coke has been fully implemented. The coking coal auction prices are mostly rising, but the market for Mongolian coal is cold [1][6]. - The coking coal supply is low due to frequent supply - side disturbances, and the steel mills' high - level iron - making water results in strong demand for coking coal. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation may ease [6]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. For industrial customers with a premium on the coke futures market, consider selling some spot goods on the futures market when the price rises [6][7]. Iron Ore - The supply side of iron ore has no major problems. The BHP's current shipment is down 10.4 tons/day compared to the previous period, still within a reasonable range. High iron - making water production may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in shipments from Simandou restricts the price ceiling [7]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: In the off - season, focus on the expected rebound opportunities of steel prices [2][6] - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The spot market trading sentiment is average, with wide - range fluctuations [2][10] - **Coke**: Expected to fluctuate strongly [2][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, expected to fluctuate strongly [2][14] - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 2.01%. The position decreased by 6,796 lots to 558,846 lots. Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices declined. The basis and spreads showed different changes [4] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.54%. Hot - rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.45%. Spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend. The basis and spreads also changed [6] - **News**: In the week of October 23rd, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [10] - **News**: On October 27th, silicon - iron prices in different regions were reported, and NMT announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [14] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both, indicating a relatively strong trend [15] Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with daily and weekly declines. The trading volume and position of some contracts changed significantly [17] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Manganese Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to continue its short - term rebound, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices may be more likely to rise than fall [3][5] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices mainly follow the trend of steel [6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The futures market rebounded significantly today. Thread apparent demand continued to pick up but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory declined [1] - Iron - making water production remained high overall, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needed to be alleviated [1] - From September data, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was still weak overall, and steel exports remained high [1] - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and increased environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan improved market sentiment [1] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments increased at a high level and were stronger than the same period last year. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, Australian shipments to China decreased, and domestic arrivals fell below the annual average [2] - On the demand side, iron - making water production gradually declined from a high level, the steel mill profitability rate shrank to a low level for the year, and there was still pressure for production cuts due to factors such as Tangshan's production restrictions [2] - Positive progress in the new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the convening of important domestic meetings led to some policy - friendly expectations and improved market sentiment [2] Coke - The price rose during the day. The second round of coke price increases was fully implemented. Coking coal prices rose faster, resulting in average coking profits and a slight decrease in daily production [3] - Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers made small - scale on - demand purchases and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [3] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, steel profit levels were average, and there was strong pressure to reduce raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price rose during the day. Tangshan carried out about 4 days of strict environmental protection - related production restrictions this week, and there was still some room for a decline in iron - making water production, but the impact duration was short [5] - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, transaction prices rose, and terminal inventory increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly as safety inspections approached in major coal - producing areas [5] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [6] - Weekly manganese silicon production decreased slightly, production remained at a high level, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good [6] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [7]