Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report on peanuts, dated November 3, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - PK604 closed at 7880, down 12 (-0.15%), with a trading volume of 4,077 (up 1492.58%) and an open interest of 4,605 (up 173.78%) [2] - PK510 closed at 8126, unchanged (0.00%), with a trading volume of 47 (up 161.11%) and an open interest of 490 (up 2.94%) [2] - PK601 closed at 7800, down 12 (-0.15%), with a trading volume of 69,185 (up 48.19%) and an open interest of 168,467 (down 0.22%) [2] Spot Market - In the spot market, prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7200, 7800, and 7800 respectively, with Shandong Jining and Linyi down 600 [2] - Imported Sudanese peanuts were priced at 8600, and Senegalese peanuts at 7600, both unchanged [2] - Rizeshao peanut meal was priced at 3250, unchanged; Rizhao soybean meal at 3040, up 30; peanut oil at 14580, unchanged; and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil at 8290, down 30 [2] Spread - The spread between PK01 - PK04 was - 80, unchanged; PK04 - PK10 was - 246, down 12; PK10 - PK01 was 326, up 12 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan continued to rebound, and those in Northeast China rose. In Northeast China, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.3 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin; in Changtu, Liaoning, it was 4.3 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin [4] - In the Henan production area, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 3.6 - 3.75 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin; in Junan, Shandong, it was 3.9 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin [4] - Imported peanut prices were stable. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese peanuts were 7600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts were 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian specification peanuts (50/60) were 8000 yuan/ton [4] - Peanut oil prices were stable. The mainstream transaction price of peanut oil mills was 7700 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills was 7920 yuan/ton [4] - Rizhao soybean meal was stronger, with the spot price at 3030 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The price difference per unit of protein between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal was stronger in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal priced at 3210 yuan/ton [6] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 are in a low - level oscillation, and short - term long positions can be considered [9] - Monthly spread: Wait and see [10] - Options: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [11] Group 5: Related Charts - The report includes charts on Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [13][19][22]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated November 3, 2025, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube markets [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - The global sugar supply surplus expectation dominates the market sentiment. Brazil's new sugarcane harvest has a clear prospect of increased production due to improved weather, and sugar mills tend to increase the sugar - making ratio due to weak ethanol profits. In China, the new sugar season has a clear increase in production, but the tightening of syrup import control policies provides some support for prices. Attention should be paid to policy rhythm changes under the loose supply - demand pattern [3] Price and Spread - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5499 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 0.99%. SB closed at 14.42 with a daily increase of 1.19% and a weekly decrease of 0.35% [4] - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 70, unchanged on the day and up 24 for the week [4] - Sugar basis: On October 31, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 267, down 11 on the day and 37 for the week [9] - Sugar import prices: On November 3, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3990, down 25 on the day and 205 for the week; the out - of - quota price was 5052, down 33 on the day and 267 for the week [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - Under short - term China - US trade consultations, market sentiment may improve. The cotton output in southern Xinjiang in the new year is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new cotton output is still high, and downstream demand is weak. The upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking. Attention should be paid to hedging pressure around 13600 - 13800 and the subsequent new - season production determination [14] Price and Spread - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13600, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13615, up 10 (0.07%); Cotton 09 closed at 13780, up 25 (0.18%) [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 1265, unchanged on the day; the cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 10, unchanged on the day [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The national apple storage is basically completed. This year's national cold - storage estimated storage volume is about 5.5%, 10% lower than last year, with an estimated storage volume of 700 - 780 million tons. Different regions have different storage changes [18] Price and Spread - Apple futures prices: AP01 closed at 9104, down 1.45% on the day and up 1.88% for the week [19] - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 347, unchanged on the day and down 44.75% for the week [20] Group 5: Jujube Market Core View - The new - season jujubes are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. The current new - season production is still the core point of market game. There are few rotten jujubes this season, but the jujubes may be smaller. Short - term price fluctuations may be large. Attention should be paid to the production determination and commodity rate after the new jujubes are harvested [24] Price and Spread - Jujube futures spreads: The jujube futures spread of 01 - 05 shows certain historical trends in different years [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking [1][3][6][18][23][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented, along with the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from November 5th to 9th shows that temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be near or below the median [6] - In the US Midwest, sporadic showers may disrupt early - November harvesting or other field operations, with variable weather and limited precipitation [8] - In central Brazil, showers have restarted, and more extensive rainfall is expected this week, which may affect soybean crop germination and early growth [9] 进出口及产量数据 - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% month - on - month, while ITS reported a 5.19% increase [10] - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November slightly higher than in October, with export taxes remaining unchanged [10] - The USDA may release several major agricultural reports in November, and analysts expect US soybean crushing volume in September to reach a record high [10][11] - The amount of soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US in August decreased compared to July [11] - The soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso state is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average [12] - The rapeseed harvesting progress in Canada is high, and the export volume increased in the week ending October 26th, but decreased compared to the same period last year [12] - India's soybean meal exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 11% [13] - The Baltic Dry Index declined, with different types of ships showing varying price trends [14] 国内供需 - On October 31st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 26% compared to the previous trading day [16] - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased [16] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 44th week was lower than expected [16] - The pig - raising profit improved, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 31st [16][17] Macro News International News - A Fed official believes that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week or in December [19] - Analysts' forecasts for oil prices remain largely unchanged, and OPEC+ may slightly increase its oil production target or pause production increases [19][20] Domestic News - On October 31st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank achieved a net investment through reverse repurchase operations [22] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list option contracts for soybean meal and corn futures [22] Fund Flows - On October 31st, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.226 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net outflow of 2.724 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 6.722 billion yuan, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [25] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Palm oil is expected to bottom out first and then strengthen as it is about to enter the production - reduction season. The short - term trend is slightly weak and bottom - building, while the medium - to - long - term trend is upward. The support level of the palm oil main 01 contract is around 8500 - 8600, and the resistance level is around 9300 - 9350. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 steps away [1][113]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Futures Market Review - Factors affecting palm oil prices include the promotion of Indonesia's B40 policy, Sino - Canadian trade relations, changes in palm oil's cost - effectiveness, production and inventory in the origin, international crude oil prices, and the US biodiesel policy. These factors have led to fluctuations in palm oil prices, including price increases, decreases, and continuous weakening [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic and International Supply - Demand Situation 3.2.1 Production - Malaysian palm oil production: High - frequency data shows continuous production increases. From the 1st to the 20th of October, production increased by 10.77% compared to the same period in September. From the 1st to the 25th of October, the yield per unit area increased by 1.63% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. However, due to environmental regulations, land constraints, and an aging tree population, the growth rate of the planting area has slowed down, and overall production is below 20 million tons. The production increase season window is narrowing, and production may not continue to rise after November [12][13]. - Indonesian palm oil production: As of August 2025, the crude palm oil production reached 35.65 million tons, a 13% increase year - on - year. The total palm oil production, including palm kernel oil, was 39.03 million tons, also a 13% increase year - on - year. It is estimated that the annual production will increase by about 10%, reaching 56 - 57 million tons [18]. 3.2.2 Consumption - Indonesian palm oil consumption: From January to August 2025, the cumulative consumption was 16.406 million tons, a 5.37% increase year - on - year. Among them, edible consumption was 6.579 million tons, a 1.29% decrease year - on - year, and biodiesel consumption was 8.343 million tons, a 12.42% increase year - on - year. It is expected that if B50 is implemented in 2026, biodiesel consumption will increase by about 3.5 million tons [33][37]. - Domestic palm oil consumption: The cost - effectiveness of palm oil is poor, and the spot and futures price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil are inverted. As a result, palm oil consumption remains at a basic level, and its market share is occupied by competing oils such as soybean oil [74][78]. 3.2.3 Export - Indonesian palm oil export: From January to August 2025, export revenue increased by 43% year - on - year to $24.79 billion, and export volume increased by 15% year - on - year to 22.69 million tons, supported by improved production and stronger global palm oil prices [41]. - Malaysian palm oil export: From October 1st to 25th, 2025, the export volume was 1.2838 million tons, a 0.36% decrease month - on - month, with average export performance [45]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Malaysian palm oil inventory: It shows a seasonal inventory build - up trend, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. However, as the production increase season window narrows, the inventory build - up speed may slow down [59]. - Indonesian palm oil inventory: Due to strong biodiesel consumption and good export demand, the inventory is at a low level [59]. - Domestic palm oil inventory: The inventory build - up trend has slowed down. The inventory has risen from a previous low level, and the basis is under pressure [84]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet No specific balance sheet data and analysis content are provided in the text. 3.4 Fourth Part: Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.4.1 Technical Analysis - The recent top pattern of palm oil futures prices has formed, and the moving averages have turned into a short - term bearish arrangement, showing a bearish trend in technical analysis [102]. 3.4.2 Seasonal Analysis No specific seasonal analysis content is provided in the text. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures and Options Future Market Outlook - Short - term: Slightly weak and bottom - building. - Medium - to - long - term: Upward. Pay attention to the inventory situation of Indonesian palm oil, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and international crude oil prices. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 steps away [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, and the internal valuation is low. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The market is expected to follow up on long orders to repair the crush spread, showing a volatile and upward trend. However, the current loose supply of domestic near - term soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height of the market. Attention should be paid to the driving evolution brought by subsequent Sino - US policies, adjustments in US Department of Agriculture reports, and South American weather changes [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang on October 31 was - 1, with a change of 23; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang (against the main contract) was - 1, with a change of 23. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 78, with a change of 5. The M1 - 5 spread was 208, with a change of 13 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with a change of 46; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, with a change of 40; the main contract's disk spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 470, with a change of 22 [7] 3.2 Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may have room for downward adjustment, and the export expectation has room for upward adjustment. The supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight [7] - As of October 25, according to CONAB data, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. The southern part of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is expected to be relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7] - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the far - month shipping schedule is slow [8] 3.3 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply [8] - Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8] 3.5 Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the disk crush profit (yuan/ton), and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 are also presented in the report, with the Brazilian disk crush profit at - 248.00 yuan/ton and the premium change of - 15 cents per bushel [7] - Data on domestic port soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean meal inventory, major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and major oil mill operating rate over the years are also provided [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Sino-US Trade Transformation, Soybean Meal Futures Prices Bottom Out and Rebound" and is prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures [1][2] - The report was released on November 3, 2025, with Yao Zhanqi as the agricultural products sector researcher [2] Group 2: Market Review - In October 2025, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted soybean meal rose 2.58%, closing at 2940, while the weighted rapeseed meal fell 0.74%, closing at 2367 [5][8] - In the international market, US soybeans rose 11.42%, closing at 1115.00, and US soybean meal rose 17.64%, closing at 321.40 [5][8] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report showed that the 2025/26 US soybean harvest area was raised by 200,000 acres to 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre was lowered by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels, and the production was raised by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels [13] - The US soybean crush volume was raised by 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, the export volume was lowered by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels (a six - year low), and the ending inventory was raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels [13] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global 2025/26 soybean production forecast was 425.87 million tons (down from 426.39 million tons in August), and the ending inventory forecast was 123.99 million tons (down from 124.90 million tons in August) [5][17] China's Soybean Imports - As of September 2025, China's monthly soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons, at a historically high level [18] Oil Mill Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0044 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,300 tons, at a historically high level [20] Pig Farming Profit - As of October 31, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, at a historical average level [21] Feed Production - As of September 2025, feed production was 31.287 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% in the month, at a historically high level [22] Group 4: Cross - Variety Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 74.2 yuan per ton, and that of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 122.3 yuan per ton. The price of the main soybean meal futures contract was 3,021 yuan per ton [24] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Dalian soybean oil to soybean meal futures main contracts was 2.69, at a historical average level [26] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal to Dalian soybean meal futures main contracts was 0.79, and the price difference was - 633 yuan per ton [27] Group 5: Outlook - On October 30, 2025, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a consensus on agricultural trade and phased tariff mitigation. China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next three years, which strongly supports the US soybean futures price [6][30] - The rise in US soybean futures prices drives up domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices. However, the high - level of oil mill crushing and abundant soybean meal supply limit the price increase. After the Sino - US economic and trade forum, the tariff policy will provide clearer guidance for the soybean meal market [7][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures. For soybean meal 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating", with a reference view of "oscillating strongly". For soybean oil 2601, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly". For palm 2601, the short - term view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Core Logic**: China may resume purchasing US soybeans, shifting the pricing anchor of domestic soybean meal from Brazilian premiums to the CBOT US soybean futures. The expected increase in imported soybean supply will pressure the spot basis of soybean meal. Currently, the domestic port soybean inventory has reached 950 million tons, at a near - three - year high. With the smooth progress of South American soybean sowing and weak domestic demand, oil mills are facing continuous losses in crushing and will be more cautious in purchasing. In the short term, soybean meal futures prices will follow the rebound of US soybean futures, but the rebound space is restricted by industrial chain pressure [5][6] Palm Oil (P) - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the increase in supply from major oil - producing countries have reduced the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy may be postponed to 2027, shaking market confidence in long - term demand. High domestic palm oil port inventories have increased pressure on the domestic market, and short - term palm oil futures prices have broken below the lower edge of the oscillation range, showing obvious weakness [7]

Core Viewpoint - Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans experienced a broad increase on October 31, with significant price movements across all commodities [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.32 per bushel, up 1.25 cents or 0.29% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract closed at $5.34 per bushel, rising 9.75 cents or 1.86% [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract settled at $11.15 per bushel, increasing by 7.5 cents or 0.68% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in soybean and wheat prices was accompanied by stable corn prices, as U.S. farmers sold off large inventories amid the price surge [1] - Market analysts suggest that futures and spot prices may have peaked this week, with potential declines expected if South American weather conditions remain normal [1] - The January soybean futures contract is considered to be significantly overbought according to market analysts [1] Group 3: External Factors - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is expected to end within the first ten days of November, increasing pressure for a resolution [1] - U.S. biodiesel production of soybean oil decreased to 1.041 billion pounds in August from 1.108 billion pounds in July, with projections for August 2024 at 1.271 billion pounds [1] - Ethanol production in the U.S. for August was reported at 1.407 billion gallons, slightly lower than the 1.409 billion gallons produced in the same month last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to remain weakly volatile, with a chance of a short - term rebound in the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range. Dalian palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish, and the 1 - month contract of Dalian soybean oil may test the 8000 - yuan support and may break it [1]. Meal Products - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, the cost - side support is strengthening. The trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish as it is difficult to source cheap soybeans in the near term [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the market supply is relatively loose. Pig prices have weakened from a strong position. In the short term, prices may not fall significantly, but there will be an increase in the number of pigs for sale in November and December, and risks should be monitored around the Winter Solstice [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and raw sugar prices will remain weakly volatile. Domestic sugar prices have limited downward momentum as they approach the production cost, and the current bottom - shock pattern may continue [9]. Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton is resilient, and the rising cost of new cotton provides support. However, cotton prices may face hedging pressure, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. Corn - Due to sufficient grain sources in the Northeast and the behavior of farmers in North China, the overall corn price is stable with limited upside. With the supply pressure remaining, the futures market will maintain a low - level shock in the short term [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize, with overall pressure [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8400 yuan, the Y2601 futures price is 8168 yuan, and the basis is 232 yuan. The market is affected by the outcome of the Sino - US summit, and there is a risk of the 1 - month contract testing the 8000 - yuan support [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan. The BMD crude palm oil futures are weakly volatile, and Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan, and the OI601 futures price is 9529 yuan [1]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2970 yuan, the M2601 futures price is 2994 yuan, and the basis is - 24 yuan. The cost - side support is strengthening, and the trend is expected to be bullish [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan, the RM2601 futures price is 2401 yuan, and the basis is 79 yuan [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans is 3900 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 1 is 4103 yuan, and the basis is - 203 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 2 is 3704 yuan, and the basis is 236 yuan [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 11900 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 11880 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and other regions have different degrees of decline or stability [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The 2601 contract price is 5472 yuan/ton, the 2605 contract price is 5407 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.25 cents/lb [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning is 5720 yuan/ton, and the basis is 343 yuan [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 13610 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 13600 yuan/ton, and the ICE US cotton main contract is 65.09 cents/lb [10]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14658 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B is 14843 yuan/ton [10]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2601 contract price is 2111 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2120 yuan/ton, and the basis is 9 yuan [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2601 contract price is 2419 yuan/ton, the Changchun spot price is not provided, and the Weifang spot price is 2750 yuan/ton [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The December contract price is 3157 yuan/500KG, the January contract price is 3353 yuan/500KG, and the 12 - 01 spread is - 196 yuan [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 2.93 yuan/T, and the basis is - 224 yuan/500KG [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预期恢复，关注中美谈判结果新指引。目前现货油厂销售压力 | | 豆粕 | | 下降，存在挺价心理。中美会晤结果有关关税方面，略有调整，但目前的关税情况 | | | 短线震荡 | 依然导致美豆没有进口优势，对国内豆粕成本端支持依然存在，利空美豆。豆粕主 | | ★ | | 力合约大区间行情对待，短期震荡整理下，主力和远月可以关注调整后的短多机会 | | | | 关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线震荡 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，10 月，11 月马棕榈油预计持续累库。印尼增产 | | 棕榈油 | 短线回落 | 以及市场对于 B50 的质疑，利空棕榈油走跌。但考虑印尼生柴政策仍在，配合国内 | | ★ | | 棕榈油进口成本，棕榈油进一步可 ...