剩余流动性趋缓背景下，大盘股将跑赢小盘股；全年维度看，科技+顺周期仍是配置主线。对投资者而言，当前时点应把握中长线配置机会，重新审视"成 长"的定义边界。 调整到位信号明确，微观流动性冲击快速出清 市场经历了一轮猛烈但短暂的调整。据华创数据，宽基ETF今年以来累计净流出1.02万亿元，杠杆资金过去5个交易日净流出582亿元，创下去年4月以来新 高。贵金属价格暴跌引发有色金属板块回吐涨幅，叠加监管层上调融资保证金比例释放降温信号，市场风险偏好受到明显抑制。 市场短期剧烈调整后，配置窗口已经打开。在牛市背景下，微观流动性冲击已出清，关注顺周期与地产链的困境反转。 据追风交易台，华创证券2月8日发布的策略周报显示，本轮回撤或已到位——2月2日跌停公司达130家创新高，杠杆资金5日净流出582亿元，市场温度回落 至去年11月水平。 更关键的是投资风格正在发生深刻变化：成长股将优于价值股，但成长机会不再局限于科创板块，顺周期和地产链的困境反转同样值得关注； 但多个指标显示调整已经充分。从投资者情绪看，上证指数在4000点附近的市场温度已接近去年11月的3800点水平；2月2日跌停公司达130家，超过去年11 月21日的 ...

目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-06 09:00——2026-02-09 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观周报：《春节效应延续》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《美国：制造业景气度超季节回升》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 策略周报：《坚定信心，持股过节》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《地方两会聚焦扩内需与强科技》2026-02-08 4 | | |  | 策略观察：《成交活跃度下降，万得全 估值微跌》2026-02-08 5 A | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：餐饮《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋缓》2026-02-09 6 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《淡季维持累库趋势，但库存处于历史低位》2026-02-09 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：有色金属《关注企稳后的布局机会》2026-02-09 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《钢铁行业周报数据库 20260208》2026-02-09 8 | | |  | 行业周报：金融《建议左侧增持非银板 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the black commodity market as a whole weakened, with iron ore experiencing the largest decline. Macro - level positive factors are still lacking, and the sharp correction in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors has cooled market sentiment. In terms of supply and demand, from a lunar calendar perspective, rebar production is similar to that of the same period last year, but apparent demand is weaker, and inventory will accumulate more rapidly in the later stage. The raw material end shows the pressure of loose supply. Iron ore inventory continues to rise, and after the logic of steel mill restocking weakens, iron ore faces a supplementary decline. Coking coal faces tightened safety supervision around the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, and the disturbance of Indonesian coal exports also provides a phased boost, but high Mongolian coal imports suppress the rebound space [2]. - The black commodity market faces the pressure of weaker year - on - year rebar demand, high hot - rolled coil inventory, and loose supply at the raw material end. Since rebar has been oscillating in a range, it will face a directional choice later, and there is a possibility of continuing to decline under the background of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to maintain the strategies of hedging on rallies and selling call options for covered writing [2]. - Although the current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is higher than in previous years, it usually widens after the Spring Festival. Due to differences in downstream demand, it may still follow seasonal patterns [3]. - The basis in East China is around 140, and the inventory in Hangzhou is at a relatively high level, with room for contraction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Production - **Monthly Data**: In December 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative output was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The monthly output of crude steel was 68180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative output was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly output of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative output was 1446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Steel imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative imports were 6060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. Steel exports were 11,300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative exports were 119,020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [7]. - **Weekly Data**: As of February 6, 2026, the weekly output of rebar was 1,916,800 tons, a decrease of 81,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0%. The weekly consumption was 1,476,400 tons, a decrease of 287,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23%. The inventory was 5,195,700 tons, an increase of 440,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.34%. The weekly output of wire rod was 730,400 tons, a decrease of 33,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1%. The weekly consumption was 620,000 tons, a decrease of 128,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The inventory was 1,057,100 tons, an increase of 112,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil was 3,091,600 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The weekly consumption was 3,055,400 tons, a decrease of 58,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%. The inventory was 3,592,000 tons, an increase of 36,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The weekly output of cold - rolled coil was 888,800 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The weekly consumption was 853,300 tons, a decrease of 69,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.69%. The inventory was 1,584,200 tons, an increase of 35,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.24%. The weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 1,571,400 tons, an increase of 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The weekly consumption was 1,604,000 tons, an increase of 133,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.84%. The inventory was 1,948,500 tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.35%. The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 8,199,000 tons, a decrease of 32,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.12%. The total weekly consumption was 7,610,000 tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.15%. The total inventory was 13,380,000 tons, an increase of 592,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.95% [8]. - **Production Profit**: On February 5, 2026, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 103, with a change of 5; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 15, with a change of - 46; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 121, with a change of - 33; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 65, with a change of 5. In North China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 8, with a change of 13; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was 34, with a change of 17; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 40, with a change of 27; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was - 77, with a change of 13. In Central China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 175, with a change of 0; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 33, with a change of 0; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 167, with a change of 0; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 55, with a change of 0 [23]. Steel Demand - **Building Materials Consumption**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 10%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 19%. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, from a lunar calendar perspective, the current cement and concrete outbound/shipment volume is still lower than that of the same period last year [30][33]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Consumption**: In December, steel exports reached 11.3 million tons, close to the historical high. The export profit of hot - rolled coils has rebounded slightly recently, but the absolute level is low [39]. Steel Inventory - **Rebar Inventory**: The rebar basis fluctuated this week with little change. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot - rolled coils, which is also reflected in the month - on - month increase in rebar production. According to past patterns, the basis is expected to narrow. From a lunar calendar perspective, the inventory in Hangzhou has reached the highest level in the same period, and it may decline later [53]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: The hot - rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 0 with little change. The hot - rolled coil inventory has started to accumulate, and the overall level is high, which suppresses the basis [57]. - **Rebar Month - Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - spread of rebar continues to fluctuate in the negative range with limited fluctuations. The rebar inventory has started to accumulate rapidly, and the high inventory level in Hangzhou makes it difficult for the month - spread to strengthen [60]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - spread of hot - rolled coils fluctuates around - 20 with little change [62]. - **Spread between Hot - Rolled Coils and Rebar**: Although the current spread is higher than in previous years, it usually widens after the Spring Festival. Due to differences in downstream demand, it may still follow seasonal patterns [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector showed a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling, and coal and coke rising first and then falling, overall performing weakly. The iron ore futures led the decline. In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, with non - ferrous metals having the largest decline [4]. - Globally, uncertainties have increased. The US continues to impose sanctions on Iran, and Trump nominated Wash as the Fed Chairman, which caused market fluctuations. Domestically, over 30 provinces have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, showing overall stability [4]. - In terms of the industrial pattern, steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. At the raw material end, downstream enterprises continued to replenish stocks before the festival. Due to the Indonesian government's proposal to significantly cut coal production, many Indonesian coal mining enterprises have suspended spot coal exports [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector had a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling and coal and coke rising first and then falling [4]. 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, and non - ferrous metals had the largest decline [4]. 03 Spot Prices - Scrap steel prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [18]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The electric furnace profit worsened, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [19]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. However, the current absolute inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The recent weakness is mainly due to the weakening of cost support [5]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. Before the festival, the steel mill inventory has been replenished to a level slightly lower than the normal level in recent years. Although the iron ore shipments have significantly declined compared to the end of last year, according to the previous shipment data, the expected arrival volume is still acceptable, and iron ore may continue the inventory accumulation pattern [5]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, the raw coal output declined, the total coking coal inventory continued to accumulate, and coal - using enterprises continued to replenish stocks. However, the pre - festival stock replenishment is about to end. Attention should be paid to the Indonesian coal policy [5]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Last week, the coke output increased slightly, and the inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises improved [5]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar - iron ore price ratio strengthened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread widened [37]. 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple important events occurred, including high - level phone calls and video meetings between countries, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" central first - document, the determination of GDP growth targets by 30 provinces in China, US sanctions on Iran, changes in US economic data, the establishment of a key minerals trading mechanism by the US, EU's adjustment of carbon market rules, and the suspension of coal exports by Indonesian coal mining enterprises [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a general decline in non-ferrous metal prices, while gold, tungsten, molybdenum, and vanadium prices have increased on a month-on-month basis [1] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising by 6.62% to 50.27 in January 2026 [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing low inventory levels for hot-rolled steel, indicating potential supply constraints [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises increased to 50.27, reflecting a positive shift in financing conditions [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly inventory levels for hot-rolled steel are at a five-year low, with rebar prices down by 0.93% [21] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86%, unchanged from the previous week [9] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the prices for cold-rolled, copper, and aluminum have decreased [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23,110 CNY/ton, down 6.21% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, with the engineering machinery sector showing the best performance at +4.35% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.50, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass remain low, with the glass operating rate at 73.89% [1][76] - The cumulative year-on-year change in completed residential area was -18.10% for 2025 [76]

专题研究 2025 年 1 月 1 日—1 2 月 3 1 日 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 债券市场研究系列 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 姚姝冰 shbyao@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 2025 年债市政策复盘：创新性与规范化并 举，债市开放再谱新篇，2026-2-4 "十五五"开局下的信用债图景：2026 年 趋势与策略，2025-12-25 违约与展期"双降"下的债市评级调整新 动向，2025-9-9 多空博弈之下，债市风险知多少？—一季 度债市信用风险新特征与关注点，2025-5-6 潜流暗动，聚焦局部——当前债券市场信 用风险表现、特征及展望，2024-11-11 转债风波与地产困局下的信用风险关注— —三大视角透视信用风险半年报，2024-7- 25 融资温和回暖、趋势行情难现，关注长债 供给增加带来的结构性机会-2024 年一季度 信用债市场运行回顾与展望，2024-4-30 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and suggest buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short-term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel are advised to wait and see; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][11] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are advised to wait and see; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][25] - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs are in short-term supply-demand games, and off-season contracts suggest shorting on rallies; eggs are overvalued, and post-festival contracts can be hedged on rallies; corn is cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal's M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term; oils are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, suggesting buying on dips and being cautious about risks before the holiday [1][27] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties from multiple aspects such as macro factors, supply and demand fundamentals, and cost factors. It provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the characteristics and trends of each variety, including trading strategies and points to watch [1][6]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: Due to overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances, they are expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [6] - Government bonds: There is no obvious major negative in the bond market, but there is no further impetus to push interest rates down. They are expected to trade sideways [6] Black building materials - Double coking: The coal market shows short-term fluctuations, and the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient. It is recommended for short-term trading [7][8] - Rebar: The futures price is undervalued statically, and the cost support is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and light positions are recommended before the holiday [8] - Glass: Affected by production line shutdowns and demand, the price is expected to trade sideways and is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by macro factors, it is expected to trade at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Aluminum: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is under pressure. It is recommended to increase the observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - Nickel: Affected by the Indonesian quota reduction, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is rigid. It is expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by the Fed's expected policy change, the mid-term price center moves up. They are expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [16] - Lithium carbonate: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [17][19] - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - Styrene: The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [20][21] - Rubber: The supply is tightened, and the demand is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [22] - Methanol: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [23] - Polyolefins: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. They are expected to trade weakly sideways [23][24] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global supply and demand are improving, but the internal and external price difference suppresses the price. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [25] - Apples and jujubes: The market is stable, and they are expected to trade sideways [25][27] Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: The short-term supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies for off-season contracts [27] - Eggs: The supply pressure is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hedge post-festival contracts on rallies [29] - Corn: The short-term market is balanced, and the medium to long-term supply and demand are loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies [30] - Soybean meal: The M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 3030 [31] - Oils: They are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to risks before the holiday [31][36]

国盛证券研报指出， 方大特钢成本优势明显，增长潜力突出。公司为江西区域钢企龙头，在行业盈利 与板块估值向好的背景下，权益产能增长或将逐步兑现，为市场稀缺的增量改善标的，其盈利有望持续 修复，公司近三年估值高位水平在1.62倍重置成本左右，对应市值为213亿元左右，认为公司估值有修 复空间，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 ...

国盛证券研报指出，方大特钢成本优势明显，增长潜力突出。公司为江西区域钢企龙头，在行业盈利与 板块估值向好的背景下，权益产能增长或将逐步兑现，为市场稀缺的增量改善标的，其盈利有望持续修 复，公司近三年估值高位水平在1.62倍重置成本左右，对应市值为213亿元左右，认为公司估值有修复 空间，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Commodity price volatility has significantly increased, and risk prevention and control should be emphasized before the Spring Festival. The sharp decline in precious metals has triggered market panic and dragged down the overall commodity trend. The short - term event is a catalyst for the adjustment of over - bought or over - sold assets, but long - term de - leveraging or interest rate cuts have not been priced in. In the long run, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets, and the fundamental situation of precious metals and some metal varieties remains unchanged. However, due to the complex geopolitical environment and approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to pay attention to risk prevention [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - **Macro - situation**: This week, domestic commodities weakened significantly, with industrial products and agricultural products falling. Precious metals tumbled under the impact of the expectation of a hawkish Fed chairman, dragging down non - ferrous metals and overall commodity sentiment. The US manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply, but the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be observed. The eurozone's CPI continued to decline, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have increased, driving up international oil prices. In China, policies to promote consumption during the Spring Festival have been introduced, and the central bank's credit policy has shifted to support high - quality development [3]. - **Commodity views**: Commodity price volatility has increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metals was mainly due to profit - taking after over - heating in the early stage, and the increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, the market needs to digest policy uncertainties and de - leveraging pressure, and volatility may continue. In the long term, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets [3]. Part Two: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US**: The January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry is emerging from the contraction. However, the ADP employment data was disappointing, and the employment situation remains sluggish, increasing the urgency of further interest rate cuts [5][8]. - **Eurozone**: The January CPI dropped to 1.7%, the lowest since September 2024. The ECB is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Inflation shows significant regional and industry differentiation, and there are still potential price pressures [11]. - **Geopolitical**: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with military confrontations in the Gulf region. The location and form of the nuclear talks have changed, and the risk of misjudgment has increased. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil prices, and the outcome of the talks will affect the energy market and financial markets [14]. - **Precious metals**: International gold and silver prices continued to plummet. The main reasons were the change in macro - policy expectations and the imbalance in the market trading structure. The increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, volatility may continue, but in the long term, the fundamentals of precious metals remain supported [17]. Part Three: Domestic Situation Analysis - **"Happy Shopping for Spring Festival"**: The "2026 'Happy Shopping for Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" focuses on creating a consumption ecosystem, with measures such as rewarding invoices, promoting trade - in, and providing financial support. 62.5 billion yuan in trade - in super - debt has been allocated to support holiday consumption [21]. - **2026 Credit Work Conference**: The central bank's credit policy has shifted to support long - term high - quality development, emphasizing stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, risk prevention, and coordinated efficiency. The policy aims to promote the stable and effective release of credit [22]. - **Policy - end**: The 2026 Central No. 1 Document focuses on agricultural and rural modernization, with changes in strategic positioning, poverty - alleviation mechanisms, and policy goals. The "Long - term Asset Input Tax Deduction Interim Measures" refines the VAT system, promoting economic high - quality development [24][25]. Part Four: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production end**: Chemical production load decreased slightly, with most product prices rising. Steel production increased slightly, but demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate [32]. - **Demand end**: Real estate sales decreased week - on - week, and passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year [39]. - **Price trends**: Most food prices fell this week, including vegetables, pork, and fruits [40].