1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are escalating globally, leading to an upward trend in resource prices. Precious metals, copper, and other commodities are showing strong performance. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed's monetary policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5]. - In the short term, most commodity prices are expected to maintain a volatile or upward - trending pattern, but there are also risks such as capital outflows and weak demand in some sectors [6][10][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks from events like the US' strategic intervention in Greenland and the situation in Venezuela are driving up precious metal prices. Silver has set a new high. The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term price fluctuations will be intense [3][4]. - On Tuesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce [3]. Copper - Dovish voices suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. The copper price is oscillating upwards. Although the spot market trading is sluggish and inventories are rising, supply disruptions from strikes in Chile and a tight supply - demand balance are expected to keep the copper price at a high level in the short term [5][6]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract continued its strong upward trend, and LME copper broke through $13,000 without showing signs of adjustment [5]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is strongly influenced by short - term capital and sentiment. Although the supply - demand fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, in the context of the Fed's expected interest - rate cut cycle, capital continues to flow into the aluminum market, leading to a strong performance of the aluminum price [7]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,395 yuan/ton, up 3.26% [7]. Alumina - The alumina spot price is still weak, but due to the expectation of maintenance and production cuts by loss - making enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the alumina futures have rebounded. However, the rebound may limit the scale of production cuts [8]. - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 2,818 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [8]. Cast Aluminum - The continuous sharp rise in copper and aluminum prices has pushed up the cost of recycled aluminum raw materials, driving up the spot price of cast aluminum. Although the demand is weak, the inflow of capital has supported the cast aluminum price to be strong recently [9]. - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 22,995 yuan/ton, up 2.29% [9]. Zinc - Driven by capital, the zinc price has continued to rise. The geopolitical conflict has brought resource premiums, and the price hitting a nearly 10 - year high in China has boosted capital's enthusiasm for long - positions. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and chasing the rise requires caution [10]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc main contract 2602 continued its strong intraday trend and oscillated at a high level at night [10]. Lead - With the market maintaining a bullish atmosphere, the rise of LME lead has driven up the Shanghai lead price. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, but the low inventory provides support. The lead price is expected to continue to rise slowly in the short term [11]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead main contract 2602 moved up during the day and continued to rise at night [11]. Tin - In the context of resource risk premiums, capital enthusiasm has pushed the tin price back to a strong level. Although the raw material supply disturbances have eased, the seasonal decline in Indonesian refined tin exports and the reduction in domestic supply in January support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [13]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin main contract 2602 rose strongly during the day and continued to rise at night [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment is high, and the industrial silicon price has rebounded. The supply is marginally shrinking, and the demand is also weak. The overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the futures price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [14][15]. - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract rebounded slightly [14]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The supply - demand of steel is in a weak balance. The off - season demand suppresses the price, while inventory reduction provides support. With positive macro - expectations, the steel price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term [16]. - On Tuesday, steel futures rose. The trading volume of steel in the spot market was 96,000 tons [16]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is supported by the expectation of pre - holiday restocking. Although the supply is abundant due to the year - end shipping rush by overseas miners, the change in the South American situation has worried the market about supply, leading to an oscillating rebound of the futures price [17][18]. - On Tuesday, iron ore futures rose. The trading volume of iron ore in the spot market was 1.33 million tons [17]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The fundamentals lack strong drivers. The decline in raw coal prices has narrowed, supporting the coke price, and the downstream procurement demand has recovered. After the holiday, coal mine production has increased slightly. The steel mills' procurement is still cautious, and the double - coking price is expected to oscillate and rebound [19]. - On Tuesday, double - coking futures rebounded [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - South American weather is favorable for crop growth, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and the external market is under pressure. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [20][21]. - On Tuesday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 1.09% to 2,776 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 1.06% to 2,390 yuan/ton [20]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report. The production in Malaysia in early January decreased significantly, while exports improved moderately. With positive macro - sentiment and weak oil prices, the palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22][23]. - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.09% to 8,500 yuan/ton [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025/26, the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, with a slight decline in production and inventory. The trade pattern has changed, and the biodiesel policy is a key demand variable. In China, the supply pattern is supported by South American new - crop yields, and there may be a short - term supply tightening. The domestic pig industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price of soybean meal is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [2][3][4] - In 2026, the overall situation of soybean supply is expected to remain loose, but the weather in South American producing areas and the final output will be key variables. The pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which may boost the feed price. The price of soybean meal may show different trends in different quarters [37][38] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Annual Review of Soybean Meal - In 2025, the global soybean supply was in a loose cycle, which pressured the CBOT futures. Biodiesel policies supported the price floor. The Sino - US trade game dominated price fluctuations. The price of US soybeans fluctuated in the bottom range of 970 - 1080 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean meal also fluctuated in the bottom range, and the annual fluctuation range was 2800 - 3100 yuan per ton [6] 2. Global Supply and Demand (1) Global Supply - In 2025/26, the global soybean production remained at a high level but decreased by 461 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%) compared with 2024/25. The end - of - period inventory decreased slightly, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased slightly. The future may enter a de - stocking cycle [8] - For the US, the USDA in November lowered the 2025/26 US soybean production by 329.6 million tons (a decrease of 2.76%) compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a 7.1% decrease in the planting area. The future planting area may change depending on the Sino - US trade relationship and the soybean/corn price ratio [9] - In South America, Brazil's production growth rate slowed down. Factors such as rising production costs and geopolitical uncertainties restricted farmers' expansion willingness. Different institutions had different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 production, but it was generally at a high level. The rainfall and temperature at the end of the year and the beginning of next year were the key variables for the final output. Argentina's 2025/26 production was expected to decline by 5.10% due to a reduction in the planting area and the impact of La Nina [10][12][13] (2) Global Consumption - In 2025/26, the global soybean export consumption remained stable, and the growth rate of crushing consumption slowed down. The Sino - US trade friction changed the trade pattern, and the biodiesel policy affected the construction of the phased bottom of the soybean price [19] - For US soybeans, the export was difficult. The Sino - US trade relationship affected the export volume. The implementation of the biodiesel policy was postponed, but the future blending target was set at a high level, which would drive the demand [20][21] - In South America, Brazil's soybean export was strong in 2025, but over - concentration of exports made it vulnerable. Argentina expanded its export channels through policy incentives and began to export soybean meal to China. If the export to China becomes normalized, the global supply chain pattern may change [22][23] 3. Domestic Supply and Demand (1) South American New - Crop Yields Support the Domestic Supply Pattern, with Possible Short - Term Supply Tightening - In 2025, China's soybean import pattern changed due to the Sino - US trade game. From January to November, the cumulative import of soybeans increased by 6.88% year - on - year, with Brazilian soybeans accounting for 73.88%. The recent raw material supply may be less than expected due to factors such as shipping efficiency and quarantine procedures. The supply pattern in 2026 depends on whether the South American harvest is good [24][26][27] (2) Diversified Imports Expand, and Argentine Soybean Meal Imports May Open New Channels - In 2025, China took the initiative in the Sino - US soybean trade game and actively expanded import channels. The "dual - source supply structure" of "mainly Brazil and supplemented by Argentina" was formed, which increased China's bargaining power. If soybean meal imports become normalized, the domestic pricing logic and trade model may change [29] (3) Terminal Livestock Supply is Expected to Tighten, and Prices are Expected to Enter a New Cycle - In 2025, the pig inventory remained high, the supply - demand contradiction intensified, and the pig price fluctuated at the bottom. In 2026, the supply pressure will be gradually released in the first half of the year, and the pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which will boost the feed price [31][33] 4. Outlook for the 2026 Soybean Meal Market - In 2026, the US interest rate may decline, and the weakening of the US dollar will help US agricultural product exports. Globally, the supply is expected to remain loose, but the final output in South America is the key factor. Domestically, if the South American output does not change much, the supply pattern of soybean meal may remain loose. The livestock industry may have a turning point in the second half of the year [37] - The weather and output in South American producing areas are key variables for the cost side. In the first quarter of next year, the price is sensitive to positive factors. In the second and third quarters, the supply pressure is the greatest. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may change, and the price and basis may recover from the low level [38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the "Five Batch" policy to promote green consumption and enhance the quality and diversity of holiday shopping experiences in China, particularly during the New Year celebrations [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "Five Batch" initiative aims to meet the green, high-quality, and diverse consumption needs of urban and rural residents during the festive season [11][12]. - The initiative includes the release of a directory of local specialty products to guide consumers in selecting green and unique holiday goods [6][11]. - The organization of themed consumption activities, such as holiday markets and live-streaming sales, is intended to promote high-quality agricultural products [7][11]. Group 2: Local Response - Qingyuan City in Guangdong is actively implementing the national "Two Festivals" consumption promotion policy with a theme of "Natural Endowments, Free Qingyuan" [14][15]. - The city plans to launch various special activities by December 2025, integrating the "Five Batch" policy with local agricultural advantages [15][25]. - A promotional event for agricultural products was held, showcasing key local products and creating immersive holiday consumption experiences [16][18]. Group 3: Future Plans - The "Natural Endowments, Free Qingyuan" winter consumption season will continue until March 2026, featuring three major themed activities and five distinctive consumption maps [22][25]. - The initiative aims to create a comprehensive, multi-scenario, and immersive winter consumption experience for consumers [25].

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/07 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售336,000吨大豆 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售336，000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 官方更正：12月30日民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口20.67万吨大豆（非23.10万吨) 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售206,700吨大豆(非231,000吨)，2025/2026市场年度付运。 Secex:巴西12月出口大豆3,383,187.68吨，同比增加69% Secex公布的出口数据显示，巴西12月出口大豆3,383,187.68吨，同比增加69%。日均出口量为153,781.26吨，同比 增加61%。上年12月出口大豆2,006,089.20吨，日均出口量为95,528.06吨。 SPPOMA：马来西亚1月1-5日棕榈油产量环比下滑34.48% SPPOMA发布的数据显示，2026年1月1-5马来西亚棕榈油产量环比下滑34.48%，鲜果串单产下滑34.70%，出油率增加0.04%。 主 产 国 降 水 情 况 进 口 大 豆 盘 面 压 榨 利 润 油 脂 进 口 利 润 油 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center on January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Analysis Price Data | Product | Location | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | Changchun | 2160 | 2160 | 0 | | | Jinzhou | 2280 | 2260 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2244 | 2230 | 0 | | | Shekou | 2430 | 2410 | -10 | | Starch | Heilongjiang | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Short - term, market sentiment is weak due to the directional auction policy, but farmers' price - holding and limited supply keep spot prices firm. After New Year's Day, downstream seasonal restocking may drive prices up. Long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies [3] - Starch: Short - term, slow de - stocking and weak downstream restocking keep prices low, but cost constraints limit price cuts, and post - New Year's Day restocking may boost prices. Long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor [3] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data | Location | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Liuzhou | 5420 | 5380 | - 40 | | Nanning | 5360 | 5340 | - 20 | | Kunming | 5220 | 5200 | - 20 | [4] Market Analysis - Short - term, reduced raw sugar supply pressure allows pricing based on domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if global sugar surplus increases, the price may fall to the out - of - quota import cost. Monitor weather and policy changes [4] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data | Product | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton (3128) | 15240 | 15520 | 280 | | Vietnamese Yarn (Spot) | 21410 | 21425 | 15 | [4] Market Analysis - Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding domestic textile production, good profits, and favorable Sino - US tariff reduction, demand is expected to improve next year, making it suitable for long - term long positions [4] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data | Location | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hebei | 2.91 | 2.98 | 0.07 | | Liaoning | 2.84 | 2.91 | 0.07 | | Shandong | 3.00 | 3.10 | 0.10 | | Henan | 3.05 | 3.20 | 0.10 | | Hubei | 3.22 | 3.24 | 0.06 | [5] Market Analysis - The egg inventory inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. The key to inventory decline is the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it will benefit the second - quarter egg price. If the pre - Laba spot price is low, there may be a concentrated cull [5] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price and Inventory Data | Product | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong 80 1 - 2 grade | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0 | | | | | | | National Inventory (as of 2025/1/1) | - | - | - | | | | | | | 1 - month basis | - 687.00 | - 1100.00 | - 413 | | 5 - month basis | - 263.00 | - 714.00 | - 451 | | 10 - month basis | 793.00 | 369.00 | - 424 | [7][8] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is still light. Good - quality apples maintain stable prices, while low - quality ones show price fluctuations. Short - term, the futures price may remain high - level volatile; medium - term, the pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term due to consumer competition [8] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data | Location | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Henan Kaifeng | 12.43 | 12.93 | 0.50 | | Hubei Xiangyang | 12.60 | 12.65 | 0.05 | | Shandong Linyi | 12.52 | 12.92 | 0.40 | | Anhui Hefei | 13.05 | 13.30 | 0.25 | | Jiangsu Nantong | 13.05 | 13.40 | 0.35 | [8] Market Analysis - After the New Year's Day holiday, demand weakens and the short - term sentiment turns bearish. There is still consumption potential in January, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Capacity reduction improves long - term sentiment, but the far - month outlook depends on further near - term de - stocking. Monitor factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [8]

据了解，此次发布的标准聚焦品质与安全，对凤梨的可溶性固形物与酸度比值、膳食纤维、矿物 质，以及地瓜的淀粉、谷氨酸、糖酸比等核心风味与营养指标作出了明确规定。标准编制充分对标国际 法规，其中地瓜设定31项安全指标，凤梨设定45项，部分指标严于现行国家标准。 标准的制定汇聚了多方专业力量。编制工作参考了国家食品安全标准、中国香港规例、国际食品法 典等，并广泛征求了中国热带农业科学院、海南大学等科研机构，以及省内多家重点生产与贸易企业的 意见，确保了标准的科学性与可操作性。 此次标准发布是"海南鲜品"构建"标准+认证"体系的关键一步。该品牌作为全省首个全品类省级农 产品区域公用品牌，目前已授权110家企业使用。自2022年以来，全省已累计兑付农业高质量发展奖补 资金超过9亿元，惠及经营主体1300余家，覆盖种业、种植、加工、营销等全产业链环节，为农业标准 化与品牌化发展提供了坚实支撑。 首批团体标准发布—— "海南鲜品"美味有标尺可量 海南日报讯(海南日报全媒体记者 王晓曈)近日，海南农产品区域公用品牌建设迎来重要进展。 《"海南鲜品"农产品区域公用品牌 凤梨》(T/HNBX274-2025)与《"海南鲜品"农产品 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The national egg price is slightly stronger today. The average price in the main production areas is 3.12 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas is 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 02 contract rose 0.57%. During the holidays, the egg spot price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market sentiment remains average, and there is no sign of a significant increase in stockpiling. The high inventory level continues to put pressure on the spot price. The futures market opened higher today and then declined slightly. In recent days, the futures market has been stronger than the spot market. There is some willingness among off - market funds to buy at the bottom, and the technical indicators show signs of stabilization. This is mainly because the inflection point of the inventory level has occurred. Although the current situation is weak, the future outlook is positive. However, from the perspective of the spot market, the 02 contract represents an absolute off - season, and there is currently no sign of a trend - like increase in the spot price. It may weaken again in the future. The post - holiday contracts, especially the peak - season 05 contract, are more suitable for long - position strategies. Long - position investors can focus on the peak - season contracts in the second and third quarters [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review**: - For the 2602 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2965, the opening price was 2966, the highest price was 2992, the lowest price was 2958, the closing price was 2982, with a gain of 17 and a gain rate of 0.57%. The trading volume was 63319, the open interest was 83287, and the open interest decreased by 3865. - For the 2603 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2999, the opening price was 2988, the highest price was 3015, the lowest price was 2981, the closing price was 3000, with a gain of 1 and a gain rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 156390, the open interest was 231586, and the open interest increased by 12061. - For the 2605 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3547, the opening price was 3549, the highest price was 3559, the lowest price was 3523, the closing price was 3536, with a loss of 11 and a loss rate of - 0.31%. The trading volume was 37879, the open interest was 95654, and the open interest decreased by 1276 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: The 02 contract represents the off - season, and there is no sign of a trend - like increase in the spot price. It may weaken again. The post - holiday contracts, especially the peak - season 05 contract, are more suitable for long - position strategies. Long - position investors can focus on the peak - season contracts in the second and third quarters [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Inventory**: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, down 0.52% from the previous month, ending the previous continuous growth. However, compared with the same period last year, it increased by 5.3%, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9] - **Replenishment**: In November 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly higher than the 39.15 million in October but significantly lower by 13.5% compared with the same period in 2024. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9] - **Culling Volume**: In the three weeks up to December 18, the national culling volume of laying hens was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous decline [9] - **Culling Age**: As of December 18, the average culling age of laying hens was 486 days, the same as the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report provides multiple data charts, including the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 12 contract, the basis of the egg 12 contract, the spread between the egg 12 and 02 contracts, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, and the profit of laying - hen farming. The data sources include Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Investment Center, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [10][12][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Shandong Province is implementing three major initiatives to support local enterprises in expanding into international markets, focusing on exhibition subsidies, product quality enhancement, and brand development [2][3]. - In 2022, Shandong organized 372 overseas exhibition activities and 62 targeted procurement meetings, with 10,500 foreign trade companies participating, leading to a total import and export volume of 3.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2]. - The "Go Global" initiative will continue, with plans to organize over 500 overseas exhibitions in 2026 and involve more than 10,000 enterprises in domestic and international exhibitions [2][3]. Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of "flagship products" in opening international markets, with Shandong focusing on its advantageous industries and developing platforms like the "Shandong Foreign Trade Quality Product Library" [3]. - High-value-added electromechanical product exports are projected to increase from 42.7% in 2020 to 46.9% by 2024, while agricultural product exports have maintained the top position in the country for 26 consecutive years, accounting for 21.3% of the national total [3]. - The policy aims to support foreign trade brand enterprises by subsidizing costs related to overseas patent applications, trademark registrations, and certifications, with a goal of cultivating over 800 "Shandong Export Brands" by 2028 [3]. Group 3 - The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce in Shandong is noted, with 16 cities covered by the national cross-border e-commerce pilot zone and the establishment of 20 provincial platforms and 30 industrial parks [4]. - The policy encourages the integration of "cross-border e-commerce + industrial belts," focusing on traditional industries and high-value sectors, with plans to cultivate around 10 specialized product selection centers and incubate approximately 1,000 enterprises [4]. - Support will be provided for digital transformation and advanced technology services for cross-border e-commerce companies, as well as for activities aimed at expanding international markets [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content Core Views - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising due to Trump's consideration of using force to seize Greenland, leading to short - term volatility in the US dollar index [1][15] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is an increased willingness to go long on commodities. However, there are risks of short - term market fluctuations and precious metal corrections [2][12][13] - A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year, and the market has entered a bullish phase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [3][22][23] - The steel market is expected to continue its range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions [4][29][30] - The overall market sentiment for lithium carbonate is more sensitive to bullish information, and the price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [5][46][47] - Oil prices have fallen, with a decline in US API crude oil inventory but a significant increase in gasoline and diesel inventories [6][58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump and his team are discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and Fed official Milan expects data to support further interest rate cuts [11][12] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is increased enthusiasm for short - term market speculation. The probability of a January interest rate cut is low, and attention should be paid to the next Fed chair selection and the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weights [12] - It is recommended to be aware of the risk of precious metal corrections in the short term and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will support Ukraine if it is attacked by Russia again, and Trump warns of potential impeachment if he loses the mid - term elections. Trump is considering using the military to seize Greenland [14][15] - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising, and the US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [15] - It is expected that the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump's government is discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and there are differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate cuts [17][18][19] - Short - term geopolitical risks remain, and the market reaction is limited. Future Fed decisions will mainly depend on data trends [19] - It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate strongly, and a bullish approach should be maintained [20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year [21][22] - The market has entered a bullish phase, and trading volume is the key indicator. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 162 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan on the day [25] - The bond market is in a headwind situation, and it is recommended not to bet on oversold rebounds. Short - selling opportunities can be considered if there is a rebound [26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Handan lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [28] - Steel prices are expected to continue their range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions and potential pressure on finished product inventories [29] - A range - bound approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term [30] 2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable with a slight upward trend on January 6 [31] - Short - term coal prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to daily consumption and pre - holiday start - up changes [31] 2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' quarterly iron ore shipments reached a new high [31] - The iron ore price is expected to have strong short - term support but limited upside [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 31.12% from January 1 - 5, while production decreased by 34.48% [33][34] - There are preliminary signs of supply pressure relief, but there is still high uncertainty. It is recommended to lightly position long on the 05 contract in advance and add positions gradually after clear bullish signals [34] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Sugar production data from different regions in China shows a mixed picture, with overall weak demand [35][36][37] - The Zhengzhou sugar futures main contract is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - holiday stocking demand and sugar mill production and sales progress [38] 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $45.52 per ton [39] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see both for single - side and arbitrage strategies [39][40] 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $36.3 per ton, and Vedanta's fourth - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 8% year - on - year [41] - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions and to take partial profits on previous long positions [43][44] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The first batch of price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate in the new year has landed [45] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [46][47] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Ukraine will ban the export of metal scrap starting from 2026, and Codelco's 2025 copper production increased slightly [48][49] - Macro factors support copper price increases, but short - term fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to buy on dips for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Indonesian mining companies can produce 25% of their 2026 planned output in Q1 [52] - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for single - side trading and continue to hold previously recommended option strategies [54][55] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Tin) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $30.01 per ton [56] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops due to the fading of capital enthusiasm [57][58] 2.12 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased, but refined product inventories increased significantly [58] - Attention should be paid to geopolitical risk disturbances [60] 2.13 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 6, the CEA closing price was 74.63 yuan per ton [61] - The CEA price is expected to remain volatile [62]

近日，商务部等九部门联合印发《关于实施绿色消费推进行动的通知》(下称《通知》)，从扩大绿色供 给、壮大市场主体、完善回收体系等7个方面系统部署了20条具体举措，覆盖农产品、家电家装、餐饮 住宿等关键民生领域。这一系统性政策力求通过全链条、多领域的协同发力，推动社会消费模式向绿色 低碳转型，引导形成更可持续的生产生活方式，从而为经济高质量发展注入持久的绿色动能。 传统的消费促进政策，多以补贴、打折等短期刺激为重点。而此次政策着力于绿色消费，通过需求侧的 绿色选择形成强大的市场信号，进而对供给端形成绿色牵引。当消费者普遍倾向于选择绿色、低碳、可 循环的产品时，企业为了赢得市场竞争，就必须在材料选择、生产工艺、能源效率乃至产品报废后的回 收利用等全生命周期环节进行绿色创新与改造。这一过程，将为以科技创新为主导的新质生产力提供应 用场景和市场需求，从而驱动产业整体向高端化、智能化、绿色化升级。 此次绿色消费推进行动，首要着力点在于聚焦基础性民生保障领域，系统化地丰富和优化绿色产品供 给。具体部署了三项重点工作。一是加大绿色、名特优新农产品供应，从源头保障食品安全与生态健 康，推动农业生产方式绿色转型。二是推广高效节能 ...