Group 1: Power Investment and Construction Industry - The core viewpoint is that power investment is entering an accelerated cycle during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment expected to reach a historical high of 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2][5][6] - The investment plan will focus on strengthening the power grid platform, accelerating the construction of ultra-high voltage direct current transmission channels, enhancing distribution network construction, and solidifying digital infrastructure [5][6] - The State Grid's investment in 2023 was 538.1 billion yuan, projected to increase to 609.2 billion yuan in 2024, and exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][5][6] Group 2: Recommendations for Key Companies - It is recommended to focus on leading state-owned enterprises with capabilities in power engineering contracting and deep involvement in grid and renewable energy construction, such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering [2][6] - These companies have a strong foundation in ultra-high voltage transmission projects, energy base construction, and renewable energy stations, making them core players in the State Grid's investment system [6] - The expected high intensity of grid investment combined with the continuous expansion of renewable energy installations will directly boost the order scale and project volume for these companies [6] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - The pig farming sector has seen a 4.9% decline, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction, with the number of pigs slaughtered in 2025 reaching 71.973 million, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [10][11] - The price of pigs has recently risen to 13.25 yuan/kg, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, while the price of piglets has also increased, suggesting a weakening of capacity reduction expectations [10][11] - The industry is undergoing a policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, with a focus on high-quality development and cost-leading enterprises expected to enjoy excess profits [11]

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various soft commodities are different, with some facing adjustment pressure and others showing recovery trends. Overall, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most commodities [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today. After previous increases, it may continue to adjust due to general downstream demand and uncertain reduction in Xinjiang planting area. As of end - December, national cotton commercial inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. In December, domestic cotton imports were 18 million tons, up 4.41 million tons year - on - year and 6.13 million tons month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian market focuses on next season's production. Expected lower rainfall in Q1 and reduced sugar - making ratio may lead to less sugar production in 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall. Production and sales progress is slow. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [3] Apple - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. During Spring Festival stocking, procurement of farmers' apples was less. As of January 16, national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 6.93% year - on - year. Last week's de - stocking volume was 17.8 million tons, down 50.36% year - on - year. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR futures prices rose slightly, butadiene rubber BR futures price rose sharply. Global natural rubber supply is in a reduction period. Chinese tire start - up rate rebounded last week. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 58.49 million tons. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures fell slightly today. Due to weak downstream demand, short - term fundamentals are average. As of January 15, Chinese paper pulp port inventory was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last period. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [7] Logs - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. External quotation decreased, and short - term arrival volume will reduce. As of January 16, national port log inventory was 257 million cubic meters, down 4.46% month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [8]

Core Insights - The extreme weather conditions, including significant snowfall and temperature drops, have raised concerns about the supply and prices of essential goods such as grains, oils, meat, and eggs. However, the market is expected to remain stable due to sufficient material reserves and effective supply mechanisms [1][2]. Group 1: Market Supply and Stability - The national grain, oil, meat, and egg market is well-supplied, and prices are expected to remain stable due to strong production capabilities and ample inventory [1]. - China's grain production has consistently exceeded 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons) for two consecutive years, with projections to reach 1.42975 trillion jin (approximately 714.875 million tons) by 2025 [1]. - The production of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry is projected to exceed 100 million tons, with an expected increase of 4.09 million tons in 2025 compared to 2024, marking a historical high in pork production [1]. Group 2: Local Response and Preparedness - Local agencies and residents have proactively implemented measures to address the impacts of severe weather, ensuring the smooth transportation of essential goods [2]. - The rapid dissemination of market information allows for effective coordination among transportation and agricultural sectors, ensuring that fresh agricultural products can be transported efficiently [2]. - Residents have increased their stockpiling of essential goods, such as grains and meats, to maintain stability in daily life during adverse weather conditions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" initiative, launched on January 15, 2026, aims to boost consumer spending and stabilize the economy while promoting Guangdong products both domestically and internationally [1][12]. Group 1: Promotion of Guangdong Goods - The initiative has successfully organized promotional events in cities like Foshan and Dongguan, leading to significant sales increases due to substantial discounts and strong online support from e-commerce platforms [1][12]. - Guangdong's products, known as "Guangdong Goods," encompass a wide range of categories, from traditional brands to innovative new products, showcasing the province's manufacturing and agricultural strengths [4][9]. Group 2: Historical and Economic Context - Guangdong has a long-standing role as a trade hub in China, historically serving as the first point of contact for foreign trade and commerce [5][8]. - The province boasts a comprehensive industrial system, being a major player in manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism, which supports the diverse offerings of "Guangdong Goods" [9][10]. Group 3: Innovation and Quality - Guangdong's focus on innovation has led to high-quality products with significant technological advancements, making it a leader in various sectors such as smart appliances and industrial robotics [10][12]. - Current statistics indicate that Guangdong produces 70% of the world's consumer drones and 40% of the nation's industrial robots, highlighting its manufacturing prowess [10]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The initiative aligns with national strategies to enhance domestic demand and promote high-quality development, aiming to leverage Guangdong's market advantages to stabilize the national economy [13][14]. - "Guangdong Goods Going Global" also seeks to upgrade industries and enhance product quality, encouraging companies to innovate and improve brand value [14][15]. Group 5: Cultural Significance - The initiative emphasizes the cultural aspects of "Guangdong Goods," aiming to enhance their market appeal by integrating local cultural elements into product design and branding [15][22]. - By promoting the stories and cultural heritage behind the products, the initiative aims to increase the recognition and value of "Guangdong Goods" in both domestic and international markets [15][22]. Group 6: Market Expansion Strategies - The initiative plans to utilize both online and offline channels to penetrate various consumer segments, leveraging the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area's influence [19][23]. - It aims to establish efficient trade channels through cross-border e-commerce and other new trade formats to connect with global consumers [19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Globally, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing adjustments, with the US - EU game as a key variable. The EU's freezing of the US - EU trade agreement approval process has led to a halt in bilateral economic and trade cooperation, triggering panic about a possible $4 trillion US debt sell - off by Europe. The traditional safe - haven status of US debt is challenged, and the financial market has entered a "safe - haven - dominated" stage. The US faces structural dilemmas, and global capital is shifting to diversified allocation. Domestically, in 2025, the economy showed structural differentiation. In 2026, with a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5%, expanding domestic demand is the core focus. Fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support domestic demand, infrastructure investment, consumption stimulation, and industrial upgrading [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the appreciation foundation of the RMB against the US dollar is solid, but the appreciation process will be relatively moderate, affected by the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [3]. - For the stock index, although there are many external disturbances, the bottom support of the stock index is strong [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term upward trend of the bond market is mainly driven by the stock market adjustment, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. - For the container shipping European line, the short - term is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to wait for the market risk to be fully released before entering the market [10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, in the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. - For copper, the exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious when building new positions above 100,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum, the short - term is affected by emotions and may fluctuate and correct, but there is upward space in the medium - long term; for alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; for cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum and is recommended to pay attention to the spread [18]. - For nickel - stainless steel, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing if the trade relationship improves [23]. - For oils, they are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - For asphalt, it will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - For gold and silver, gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. - For pulp - offset paper, the pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - For LPG, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - For PTA - PX, the short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - For methanol, the geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - For PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - For PE, it is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - For pure benzene - styrene, the supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [53]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand expectation is weak [55][56]. - For propylene, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, they are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the price range is recommended [58][59]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the price is affected by macro expectations [60]. - For coking coal and coke, the disk is weak, and the long - term price may be under pressure if the macro situation changes [62]. - For live pigs, the cold wave has put pressure on the northern pig prices [63]. - For cotton, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [65]. - For sugar, it is expected to fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India [67]. - For eggs, the price is expected to be stable overall with local adjustments [69]. - For apples, the near - term contracts are affected by weak demand, and the far - term contracts are less affected. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [74]. - For red dates, the short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement [75]. - For logs, although the price has broken through, it does not have the condition to continue to fall sharply. It is recommended to operate in the range of 750 - 795 [76]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The EU has frozen the US - EU trade agreement approval process; the ADP weekly employment report shows an average increase of 8,000 private - sector jobs per week; there are issues related to Greenland; domestic fiscal and financial policies are coordinated to promote domestic demand; the US Treasury Secretary reveals the progress of nominating the next Fed Chairman [1]. - **Core Judgments and Transmission Logic**: Geopolitical changes have led to a "safe - haven - dominated" global financial market. Domestically, expanding domestic demand is the focus in 2026, and fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support the economy [2]. - **Exchange Rate Analysis**: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation against the US dollar, but the process will be moderate, affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume increased slightly [4]. - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Finance has announced policies to support the economy, and there is a global bond - selling wave [4]. - **Market Interpretation**: The stock index was affected by geopolitical factors and short - term capital adjustments but has strong bottom support [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The treasury bond market rose, and the bond yield decreased [5]. - **Important Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and policies were announced to expand domestic demand [6]. - **Core Views**: The short - term upward trend of the bond market is driven by the stock market, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. Container Shipping European Line - **Market Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures market closed down, and the trading volume was light [7]. - **Information Sorting**: The core contradiction is the game between the price cut of leading shipping companies and the repeated resumption of navigation. There are both positive and negative factors [8]. - **Trading Judgments**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose, and the trading volume increased [10]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was average, and the price of lithium ore and lithium salt increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state [10]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon decreased, and that of polysilicon increased [11]. - **Industry Performance**: The industrial silicon spot market was average, and the photovoltaic industry spot market improved [12]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The copper price continued to adjust, and the basis decreased [14]. - **Industry Information**: The exchange has adjusted the trading margin and price limit, and the inventory has changed [15]. - **Viewpoint**: The exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure [16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed [17]. - **Core Views**: Aluminum may fluctuate and correct in the short term but has upward space in the medium - long term; alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased [18]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market price and inventory of nickel and stainless steel changed [19]. - **Market Analysis**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds in the meal market continued to decline [21]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of imported soybeans may be in short supply in the first quarter, and the supply of rapeseed meal may increase if the trade relationship improves [22]. - **Outlook**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [23]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The prices of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil rebounded [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The export of palm oil increased, and the policies of the US and Indonesia affected the market [24]. - **Viewpoint**: They are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [26]. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different characteristics, and the inventory has changed [26]. - **Core Logic**: The high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - **Asphalt** - **Spot Situation**: The asphalt price was stable, and the supply and demand in different regions were different [28]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed, and the price is affected by geopolitical factors [29]. - **Viewpoint**: It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium** - **Market Review**: The prices of platinum and palladium rose [31]. - **Trading Logic**: Geopolitical and tariff issues have injected short - term safe - haven premiums [31]. - **Viewpoint**: The bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold rose, and silver fluctuated [34]. - **Trading Logic**: The geopolitical situation has increased the safe - haven demand for gold, and silver is affected by industrial demand and other factors [34]. - **Viewpoint**: Gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The futures prices of pulp and offset paper fluctuated [37]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pulp was stable, and the port inventory increased [37][38]. - **Viewpoint**: The pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - **LPG** - **Market Dynamics**: The LPG price decreased, and the spread changed [40]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - **PTA - PX** - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have changed, and the profit has decreased [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Inventory**: The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased [43]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of MEG and polyester have changed, and the profit has been repaired [43]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Dynamics**: The methanol price changed [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The basis and inventory of methanol have changed [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **PP** - **Market Dynamics**: The PP price decreased [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PP is different in different regions, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [46]. - **Viewpoint**: It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - **PE** - **Market Dynamics**: The PE price decreased [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PE decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [49]. - **Viewpoint**: It is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis increased [50]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - **Rubber** - **Market Trends**: The rubber price stabilized slightly [52]. - **Related Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and domestic policies were favorable [52]. - **Core Views**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased [55]. The supply is expected to be high, and the price is restricted by inventory [55]. - **Glass**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the supply change [56]. - **Propylene** - **Market Dynamics**: The propylene price decreased [56]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of propylene is different in different regions, and the supply and demand have changed [56]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: They fluctuated and fell, and were relatively resistant to decline compared to furnace materials [58]. - **Core Logic**: The production growth of finished products has slowed

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil may break through 4,100 ringgit and potentially reach 4,200 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may try to break through 8,750 yuan and possibly reach 9,000 yuan [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is affected by the US - EU situation and supply - demand factors, showing a narrow - range oscillation. Domestic soybean oil has a mixed situation with both support and pressure [1]. - Rapeseed oil is affected by market news and palm oil trends, and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure from negative market sentiment, maintaining a low - level oscillation. Xinjiang cotton has a short - term supply pressure, but the cotton enterprises' de - stocking and downstream demand support the price. Short - term cotton prices may continue to adjust [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to sufficient supply. International sugar production in India is strong, and Thailand's production is slow. Domestic sugar is in the end of the stocking period, with the price expected to maintain a low - level and weak oscillation [3]. Red Dates - Affected by weak demand and pessimistic market sentiment, red date futures prices are under pressure. With the industry's active de - capacity, the inventory pressure is postponed, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating [4]. Apples - The apple market has a slow de - stocking progress in cold storage, and the sales area has problems such as overstocking. The futures market has fallen from a high level due to weak demand. After the Spring Festival, the scale and structure of cold - storage apples need to be observed [6][9]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, while in North China the price increase range is narrowing. The demand side has different inventory situations. Overall, corn prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [12]. Pigs - The pig market has a strong pre - Spring Festival consumption expectation, but the price increase is limited by demand. The supply - demand game is intensifying, and the market is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [15]. Meal - The meal market has a loose domestic supply, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty. The market is expected to oscillate, with support around 2,700 [18]. Eggs - The egg market has a slowdown in the decline of the laying - hen inventory. The market has a differentiated performance before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 20, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.23%, the futures price of Y2605 increased by 0.45%, and the basis decreased by 2.94%. The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.15%, the futures price of P2605 increased by 1.16%, and the basis remained unchanged. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.47%, the futures price of OI605 increased by 0.52%, and the basis remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 3.33%, the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 23.08%, and the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 28.57%. The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 50.00%, and the spread between soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased by 1.97% [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 20, the price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.14%, the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.07%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.06%. The main - contract position decreased by 1.61%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.11%, and the effective forecast increased by 14.70% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.17%, the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.15%, and the FC Index: M: 1% remained unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The Ya - Asia inventory decreased by 100.0%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, the bonded - area inventory increased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 4.4% [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 20, the price of sugar 2605 decreased by 1.16%, the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 1.14%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.25%. The main - contract position increased by 2.70%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.22%, and the effective forecast decreased by 86.23% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price decreased by 0.37%, the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.38%, the Nanning basis increased by 35.34%, and the Kunming basis increased by 141.38% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production in the country decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, the cumulative production in Guangxi decreased by 29.42%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 40.96% [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 20, the price of red date 2605 decreased by 1.30%, the price of red date 2607 decreased by 1.29%, and the price of red date 2609 decreased by 1.27%. The 5 - 7 spread and 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price decreased by 0.43%, and the first - grade and second - grade spot prices remained unchanged [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 20, the price of apple 2605 increased by 0.28%, the price of apple 2610 increased by 1.51%, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 7.69%. The futures position decreased by 0.63%, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 2.25% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets increased slightly [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On January 20, the price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.04%, the basis increased by 1.56%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 33.33%, the Shekou port market price decreased by 0.41%, the north - south trade profit decreased by 166.67%, the Brazilian arrival duty - paid price decreased by 0.04%, and the import profit decreased by 3.31% [12]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.20%, the average price increased by 0.04%, the basis increased by 3.31%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 7.69%, and the starch - corn 03 spread decreased by 1.46% [12]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 20, the main - contract basis increased by 6.19%, the price of pig 2605 decreased by 0.42%, the price of pig 2603 decreased by 1.32%, the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 43.75%, and the main - contract position decreased by 6.66% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 0.52%, the weekly white - strip price increased by 0.80%, the weekly piglet price increased by 6.45%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.24%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 164.04%, the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit increased by 2193.07%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [15]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.33%, the basis decreased by 2.41%, the Brazilian February shipment - period crushing profit decreased by 1.5%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 2.19%, the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.36%, the basis increased by 71.19%, the Canadian March shipment - period crushing profit increased by 9.03%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract increased by 0.39%, the basis decreased by 7.69%. The spot price of Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - two main contract increased by 0.76%, the basis decreased by 5.39%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.21% [18]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 3.31%, the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 19.70%, the oil - meal ratio increased, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased [18]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 20, the price of egg 03 contract increased by 0.13%, the price of egg 04 contract increased by 0.42%, the 3 - 4 spread decreased by 3.66%, and the basis decreased by 7.31% [21]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 1.15% [21]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - chick price increased by 3.45%, the culled - hen price increased by 7.50%, the feed - egg ratio increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit increased by 18.01% [21].

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans experienced a slight decline, ending a three-day rise, as investor concerns over US-EU tensions overshadowed optimism regarding US soybean biofuel demand and record production expectations from Brazil [3][11] - The USDA reported private exports of 190,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines, while US soybean inspection data showed a decrease in exports to China [3][11] - Brazil's soybean harvest rate is at 2.3%, higher than the same period last year but below the five-year average, with favorable weather conditions in Mato Grosso state contributing to higher yields [3][11] - Domestic protein meal prices increased slightly, with canola meal outperforming soybean meal, while soybean meal inventories declined for the third consecutive week due to low crushing volumes and demand for stocking [3][11] - The market outlook for soybean meal remains bearish due to ample supply and cost support, with a suggested strategy of a double selling approach [3][11] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil prices rose due to expectations of reduced production and increased export demand, with shipping data indicating a month-on-month increase in palm oil exports of 8.64%-11.4% for January 1-20 [4][12] - A survey indicated that the average price of crude palm oil in 2026 is expected to be slightly lower than last year, with increased supply from major producing countries and weak biofuel demand exerting downward pressure on prices [4][12] - Malaysia has reduced the palm oil export tax to 9% for February, contributing to a more favorable market environment [4][12] - Domestic palm oil prices increased by over 1%, with soybean oil and canola oil following suit, while overall oilseed inventory pressure has marginally decreased [4][12] - The market is characterized by mixed signals, with both spot and futures prices showing resilience amid seasonal demand [4][12] Group 3: Live Pig - Live pig futures continued to show weakness, with the main contract falling by 1.32% to 11,550 yuan/ton, and open interest continued to decline [6][12] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was reported at 13.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day, with regional prices varying across provinces [6][12] - Increased supply from farmers and low willingness from downstream buyers to purchase at high prices have led to a downward trend in pig prices, although some regions in the south are still attempting to maintain prices [6][12] - Seasonal demand leading up to the Spring Festival may provide some support for pig prices in the near term [6][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced slight fluctuations, with the main contract rising by 0.13% to 3,027 yuan/500 kg [7][13] - The national average price for eggs was stable at 3.68 yuan/jin, with regional prices showing little change [7][13] - Trade dynamics are characterized by a majority of traders purchasing based on demand, leading to stable prices in most markets, with some minor adjustments [7][13] - Short-term supply remains relatively ample, and as egg prices continue to rebound, spot prices are stabilizing [7][13] - Long-term recovery in farming profits may hinder effective capacity reduction, suggesting a focus on short-term trading strategies [7][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures showed a reduction in open interest, with prices initially declining before recovering, closing with a small upward trend [8][14] - Prices in Northeast China are currently stable, with traders selling based on market conditions, while low-price selling intentions appear limited [8][14] - In the sales regions, corn prices are running strong due to increased costs from snowfall affecting transportation [8][14] - Downstream purchasing remains cautious, with no signs of concentrated stocking in the market [8][14] - The recent performance of the corn market is influenced by surrounding commodities and market sentiment, with the May contract showing a mixed trend [8][14]

2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.52%报 111.490 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.180 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.875 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.05%报 102.444 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 20 日以 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．东北深加工企业提价收购、东北农户大部分惜售，市场供需双方继续围绕连盘走强的持续性继续博弈 2．此前受天气影响，山东到车量从51台恢复到196台。沂水大地、米能、金汇、青援食品、鲁洲集团等企业继续上调收购价10-20元/吨。 3.20日共举行三场玉米采销竞价：中储粮公司举行玉米竞价采购交易，计划采购玉米量4.6万吨，成交数量2.2万吨，成交率48%。中储粮公司举行玉米购销 双向交易，计划数量1.3万吨，成交数量0.25万吨，成交率20%。中储粮黑龙江公司举行玉米竞价销售交易，计划销售玉米量1.1万吨，全部成交，成交价 2090-2160。结合现货成交一般的情况，侧面说明虽然市场观望情绪短期有所减弱，补库需求仍存，但市场整体仍对未来行情不能有较为确定性的判断。 观点总结：玉米03主力观察2250附近的支撑，上方2350。 3．美盘成本支撑削弱以及菜粕下跌均对豆粕价格形成拖累，但对未来大豆供应可能阶段性偏紧的担忧以及储备投放节奏的不确定性仍提供一定支撑。另一 方面，当前巴西远月船期对盘压榨利润相对可观，暗示若南美到港压力兑现，仍可能通 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short term due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [2] - Starch prices are expected to be moderately strong in the short term with stable supply and demand, and long - term focus should be on downstream consumption rhythm [2] - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing can refer to domestic sugar costs and spot prices, while long - term prices may decline if the global sugar surplus intensifies [6] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve and the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season [7] - For eggs, the存栏 has reached an inflection point but the base is still high. The pace of chicken culling will affect the egg price in the second quarter [11] - Apple prices show a pattern where good - quality apples are stable and lower - quality apples' prices are loosening. The 05 contract should focus on inventory reduction [17] - For pigs, there is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and the futures price increase depends on further production and inventory reduction [17] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From January 14 - 20, 2026, corn prices in some regions remained stable or decreased slightly, and starch prices in some regions remained unchanged. The corn basis decreased by 9, and the starch basis increased by 5 [1] - **Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are supported by limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations. Starch prices are expected to be moderately strong with stable supply and demand [2] Sugar - **Price Data**: From January 14 - 20, 2026, sugar prices in some regions decreased by 20, and the basis increased by 41 [5] - **Analysis**: The international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing can refer to domestic sugar costs and spot prices, while long - term prices may decline if the global sugar surplus intensifies [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From January 14 - 20, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 50, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 153 [7] - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term buying due to low initial inventory, expanding textile production, and favorable consumption policies [7] Eggs - **Price Data**: From January 14 - 20, 2026, egg prices in some regions remained stable or increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 25 [10] - **Analysis**: The存栏 has reached an inflection point but the base is still high. The pace of chicken culling will affect the egg price in the second quarter [11] Apples - **Price Data**: From January 14 - 20, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national apple inventory decreased by 108 (unit not specified) [16][17] - **Analysis**: The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production area is still light. Good - quality apples are stable, and lower - quality apples' prices are loosening. The 05 contract should focus on inventory reduction [17] Pigs - **Price Data**: From January 14 - 20, 2026, pig prices in some regions increased slightly, and the basis increased by 105 [17] - **Analysis**: There is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and the futures price increase depends on further production and inventory reduction [17]