- The report introduces three quantitative models: Commodity Term Structure, Commodity Time-Series Momentum, and Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory. These models are combined into a Composite Commodity Strategy using equal weighting of the three sub-strategies[25][26][28] - **Commodity Term Structure Model**: This model is constructed based on the roll yield factor to capture the contango and backwardation states of commodities. It dynamically goes long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[26][30][33] - **Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model**: This model uses multiple technical indicators to capture medium- and long-term trends in domestic commodities. It dynamically goes long on assets with upward trends and short on assets with downward trends[26][35][36] - **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model**: This model is based on the inventory factor to reflect changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals. It dynamically goes long on assets with declining inventory and short on assets with increasing inventory[26][40][43] - **Evaluation of Models**: The Commodity Term Structure Model is noted for its strong performance, achieving a new high in net value during backtesting. The Time-Series Momentum Model has shown weaker performance recently, while the Cross-Sectional Inventory Model has demonstrated moderate gains[25][35][40] - **Backtesting Results**: - Commodity Term Structure Model: Two-week return of 2.31%, year-to-date return of 7.46%[30][33][34] - Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model: Two-week return of -0.38%, year-to-date return of -3.19%[35][36][39] - Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model: Two-week return of 0.98%, year-to-date return of 5.43%[40][43][44]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of November 21, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 20.6x and a PB of 1.7x, positioned at the 74th and 36th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 43rd percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 37.7x and a PB of 4.9x, at the 27th and 51st percentiles, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical data [2][5] - The STAR 50 Index shows a significantly high PE of 145.1x and a PB of 5.7x, at the 95th and 60th percentiles, suggesting extreme valuation levels [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2][7] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][7] - The Medical Services industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation [2][7] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with upstream polysilicon futures prices increasing by 7.8%, while the average price of silicon wafers decreased by 0.9% [2][3] - Battery materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate have seen a significant price increase of 15.4%, with a cumulative rise of nearly 180% over the past quarter [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while cement prices have stabilized with a 0.4% increase in the national cement price index [2][3] - Glass prices have shown volatility, with a 3.9% decrease in spot prices, indicating a challenging market environment [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has decreased by 0.8%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the agricultural sector [2][3] - The aviation sector has shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in passenger turnover for October 2025 [2][3] Technology and TMT - The domestic integrated circuit and optoelectronic device production increased by 10.2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating growth in the technology sector [2][3] - The export value of optical communication modules has decreased by 16.9%, reflecting challenges in the international market [2][3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.8%, closing at $62.51 per barrel, indicating fluctuations in the energy market [2][3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 7.1%, suggesting a rise in shipping demand [2][3]

Group 1: A-Share Valuation Overview - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 21, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 20.6x and a PB of 1.7x, positioned at the 74th and 36th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 43rd historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 37.7x and a PB of 4.9x, which are at the 27th and 51st historical percentiles, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to other indices [2][5] Group 2: Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2][7] - The Semiconductor and Communication sectors have PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile, indicating high market expectations [2][7] - The Medical Services industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile, suggesting potential undervaluation [2][7] Group 3: Industry Midstream Economic Tracking - In the New Energy sector, the photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with upstream polysilicon prices rising by 7.8% while downstream battery and module prices are under downward pressure [2][3] - The real estate chain shows a slight increase in rebar prices by 0.6% and cement prices by 0.4%, while glass prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels [2][3] - In the consumption sector, pork prices have decreased by 0.8%, while the aviation sector shows a recovery with a 8.9% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in October 2025 [2][3] Group 4: Technology and TMT Sector Insights - The domestic integrated circuit and optoelectronic device production increased by 10.2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating growth in the technology sector [2][3] - The communication sector has seen a 16.9% year-on-year decline in optical communication module export value, reflecting challenges in international markets [2][3] Group 5: Commodity and Cyclical Industry Trends - The metals market is under pressure with copper prices down by 0.6% and aluminum down by 1.8%, influenced by tighter liquidity conditions [2][3] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.8% to $62.51 per barrel, reflecting global supply dynamics [2][3] - The coal market remains stable with prices for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal holding steady, while coking coal prices decreased by 2.0% [2][3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback last week, with major indices declining, particularly the North Securities 50 and Wind Micro Stock Index, which fell by 9.04% and 7.8% respectively, indicating substantial selling pressure on small-cap and micro-cap stocks [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped over 6%, reflecting a notable retreat in growth sectors, while the Shanghai 50 and Dividend Index saw relatively smaller declines of 2.72% and 2.93% respectively, highlighting a structural divergence in the market [1] - All Wind primary industry indices fell last week, with an average decline of approximately 4.5%, driven by negative macro sentiment, particularly in materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors, which all saw declines exceeding 6.6% [1][11] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 35 funds were issued last week, including 16 equity funds, 10 mixed funds, 4 bond funds, 1 QDII fund, 1 REITs fund, and 3 FOF funds, with a total issuance of 36.035 billion units [15] - The Wind All Fund Index fell by 2.62% last week, with ordinary equity fund indices down by 5.13% and mixed equity fund indices down by 4.99% [6][15] Global Market Context - Global equity markets showed weakness, with the S&P 500 down 1.95%, the Dow Jones down 1.91%, and the Nasdaq down 2.74%. Asian markets also faced pressure, with the Nikkei 225 down 3.48% and the Hang Seng Index leading global declines at 5.09% [3] - Commodity markets mostly declined, with coking coal experiencing a significant drop of 8.16%, while crude oil fell by 3.41% and gold saw a slight decrease of 0.77% [3] Domestic Bond Market - The bond market exhibited cautious sentiment, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index declining by 1.78%. The 10-year government bond futures saw a slight increase of 0.04%, while the 30-year main contract fell by 0.43% [12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook remains a key concern for the market, with recent hawkish statements from officials causing panic, but New York Fed President Williams indicated that labor market weakness poses a greater threat than inflation, suggesting further rate cuts are possible [1] - Following Williams' dovish comments, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to over 70%, alleviating investor concerns [1] - The S&P Global data showed that U.S. business activity expanded at the fastest pace in four months in November, with service sector growth accelerating and overall economic outlook improving, leading to gains in major U.S. stock indices [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Eli Lilly became the first pharmaceutical company globally to surpass a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by expanded production and strong performance of its weight loss drugs [5] - Goldman Sachs projected that Eli Lilly's oral version of its weight loss drug could be launched in Q1 next year, earlier than expected, which may enhance its market share [5] - Eli Lilly's agreement with the U.S. government to significantly reduce prices for some weight loss drugs is expected to expand its drug coverage and boost sales potential [5] Group 3: European Market Insights - In Europe, the manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone fell to 49.7 in November, indicating a contraction due to weak demand and reduced new orders, particularly in Germany and France [7] - Investor sentiment regarding future economic growth in Europe remains cautious, reflected in mixed performances of major European stock indices [7] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - International gold prices saw a slight increase due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, although they experienced a weekly decline of 0.36% due to a strong dollar [3] - Oil prices fell on Friday amid concerns over increased supply following U.S. efforts for a peace agreement in Ukraine, with both NY and Brent crude prices showing weekly declines [9]

Group 1: Company Performance - Puda Technology (00650.HK) reported a significant decline in sales revenue from cleaning equipment and related services for the solar and semiconductor manufacturing sectors, dropping from HKD 77.3 million to HKD 9.1 million, a decrease of approximately 88.2% [1] - The decline in sales is attributed to the downturn in the photovoltaic industry, with the global solar market facing adjustments since the end of 2023 due to reduced demand and project delays [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Hongbo Mining's crude oil sales net revenue decreased from HKD 84.7 million to HKD 68.4 million, a reduction of about 19.2% [2] - The decrease in revenue is primarily due to lower selling prices and a slight reduction in sales volume, with the average Brent crude oil price falling to approximately HKD 535 per barrel during the reporting period [2] - Hongbo Mining's average unit selling price for crude oil decreased from HKD 625 per barrel to approximately HKD 525 per barrel, aligning with global oil price trends [2] - The net sales volume slightly decreased from 135,470 barrels to 130,289 barrels, mainly due to a reduction in production [2] - The company's loss significantly decreased from HKD 165 million to HKD 93.3 million, a reduction of approximately 43.5% [2]

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly declining. The closing price slightly dropped by 0.59% to 15,240 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The closing price slightly decreased by 0.35% to 2,004 yuan/ton. The current domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The closing price slightly decreased by 1.67% to 447.4 yuan/barrel. The bearish atmosphere has intensified. With the game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, and the interference of geopolitical factors, the oil price rebound is blocked and may fluctuate widely [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of both bonded and general trade warehouses decreased [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will recover next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.28%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.31%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points [11]. - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 1.2439 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 358,700 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 417, a week - on - week increase of 3, and a year - on - year decrease of 61. The average daily crude oil production was 13.834 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year significant increase of 633,000 barrels/day [12]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.2 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 3.426 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 6.137 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 698,000 barrels week - on - week, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 533,000 barrels week - on - week [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decrease of 15.65%. As of November 11, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds was 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts from the October average, an increase of 37.82% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,240 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | - 390 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,017 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 2,004 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 425.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 447.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | - 21.7 yuan/barrel | +7.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][23] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][37] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

Gold Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September unexpectedly increased by 119,000, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%, marking a four-year high [1] - The largest gold ETF reported a reduction of 4.29 tons in holdings on November 20, indicating a lack of bullish sentiment in the short-term gold market [1] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that the resilient U.S. job market may suppress expectations for future Fed rate cuts, putting short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Despite high U.S. debt and declining dollar credibility, gold prices are expected to have long-term upward potential [1] - Technical analysis shows a weak short-term outlook for gold, with prices failing to break above the 62-day moving average and a likelihood of further declines [1] Oil Market - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia's oil production forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 510 million tons, unaffected by Western sanctions [2] - The potential for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with negotiations expected to conclude by the end of November, may exert downward pressure on oil prices [2] - The current risk of oversupply in the oil market suggests that oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term [3] - Technical indicators show a bearish outlook for oil prices, with the 20-day moving average and 62-day moving average forming a death cross [3] U.S. Dollar Index - Recent U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with job growth but a rising unemployment rate, which may hinder further Fed rate cuts [4] - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with a general hawkish tone suggesting a cooling of rate cut expectations for December [4] - The dollar is likely to maintain a strong position due to these factors and potential further depreciation of the yen [4] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish short-term outlook for the dollar, with prices above the 20-day and 62-day moving averages [5] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown some rebound in the past two trading days but is at risk of further decline, potentially forming a "downward three methods" pattern [6] - The index is currently trading below the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bearish sentiment [6] Copper Market - The copper market experienced a slight rebound but remains below the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for further declines [7] - Attention is on the resistance level at $4.99 for any potential upward movement [7] Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% [9] - Ukrainian President Zelensky received a U.S. peace plan draft and is expected to consult with Trump soon [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase allocations appropriately if there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory overshoot" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. After the release of the "delayed" US September non - farm payroll data, both non - farm employment and the unemployment rate exceeded expectations, but the market seemed to focus on the weaker unemployment data, causing US stocks to open high and close low with a significant decline [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals was not yet evident. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak fund arrival, rhythmic decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow slightly but remained resilient. The 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan local government's unused quota withdrawn in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [8]. 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Financial Assets - **Stock Index Futures**: Include CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures. They showed varying degrees of decline on a daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly basis, but had significant increases this year, with increases ranging from 12.12% to 24.19% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures also had different performance trends. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a 0.00% daily change, and a - 0.50% change this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index, euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and US dollar central parity rate all had their own change rates, with the US dollar - yen having a 0.7% increase this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, and 10Y US treasury bond yield had corresponding changes, for example, the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by about 45 bp this year [3]. 2.2 Industry Indexes - **Domestic Industries**: Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed different degrees of increase, while industries like food and beverage, and computers had varying degrees of decline. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a 33.74% increase this year, while the food and beverage industry had a - 4.32% change [4]. 2.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and other energy commodities had different performance. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil had an 18.24% decline this year, while NYMEX natural gas had a 28.59% increase [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and COMEX silver both had significant increases this year, with increases of 54.46% and 71.92% respectively [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper and LME aluminum also showed different trends, with LME copper having a 21.69% increase this year [4]. 2.4 Domestic Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe route had a - 27.74% change this year [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver in the domestic market also had different performance, with silver having a 61.31% increase this year [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals had their own trends, for example, copper had a 16.75% increase this year [5]. 3. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is in a state of "trading time for space" with a dumbbell - style allocation transition. Facing the problem of insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The strategy is mainly based on covered call defense. Due to the possible insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of the capital market may be limited. Affected by factors such as unexpected incremental policies, unexpected stock market rises, and unexpected monetary policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Affected by factors such as the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe Route**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the loading is under pressure and lacks upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, the spot price is firm, and the trading volume is marginally weakening. Pay attention to factors such as the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Coke**: The profit has been repaired, and the spot price is temporarily stable. Affected by factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: After the restart of the US government, the copper price is consolidating at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, and unexpected Fed policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price has corrected. Affected by factors such as macro - risks, supply disruptions, and unexpected demand, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. - **LPG**: The refinery's external supply volume has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Affected by cost - related factors such as crude oil and overseas propane, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. 3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The strength of US soybean oil has boosted the domestic soybean and palm oil markets. Affected by factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [12]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of state reserves release is strong, and the futures market has reduced positions and declined. Affected by factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12].