Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.46% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.61% [1] - The Hong Kong Tech ETF (159751) rose by 1.08%, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (159318) gained 1.06% [1] - Financial stocks led the gains, with Nanhua Financial surging over 100% and Zhongzhou Securities rising more than 40% [1] Group 2 - New consumption stocks experienced declines, with Laopu Gold falling over 10% and Pop Mart dropping more than 4% [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming disclosure of mid-year reports by listed companies is expected to become a mainstream market focus, with Zhongyan Chemical set to report on July 15 [1] - Companies with significantly better-than-expected performance, such as Huayin Power with a projected increase of over 40 times in earnings, have seen substantial stock price increases, with a 76.72% rise in July [1] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with sustained earnings growth during the mid-year report season, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, biomedicine, machinery, and Huawei's supply chain [1] Group 2 - Investors should pay attention to companies with large absolute net profit increases, while also considering the sustainability of future earnings growth and valuation levels [2] - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on blue-chip stocks in banking, non-bank financials, and high-dividend sectors [2] - Investment strategies should consider three main lines: sectors with mid-year report highlights like gold and technology hardware, high-growth opportunities less affected by economic cycles such as the AI industry, and industries that have achieved supply-side clearing in a mild recovery environment [2]

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed ongoing communication between the US and China regarding economic and trade issues, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and cooperation to stabilize bilateral relations [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Price Increase - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced plans to adjust the price of rare earth concentrate to 19,109 yuan per ton (excluding tax) for Q3 2025, reflecting a 1.5% increase [2] Group 3: High Dividend Payouts - Goldman Sachs projected that by the end of 2025, Chinese listed companies will distribute a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends, reaching a historical high, which is expected to attract more global investors [3] Group 4: Northbound Capital Inflows - Northbound capital increased by 54.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with total holdings reaching 2.28 trillion yuan, focusing on financial, industrial, and healthcare sectors [5] Group 5: New Stock Market Activity - The new stock market saw significant activity, with N Tongyu's first-day gain of 128.05%, leading to potential profits of up to 75,000 yuan per single lot [7] Group 6: Electricity Demand Forecast - The China Electricity Council projected a 5% to 6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption for 2025, driven by economic growth and macroeconomic policies [12] Group 7: Investment Opportunities in Power Sector - Analysts suggested focusing on power sector investments due to rising electricity demand from high temperatures, recommending companies like Huaneng International and China Nuclear Power [13] Group 8: Corporate Earnings Forecasts - Several companies, including Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel, are expected to report significant earnings growth, with Northern Rare Earth's price adjustment indicating a positive outlook for the sector [22][23]

Economic Indicators - As of June 2025, PPI has experienced 33 consecutive months of year-on-year negative growth, while CPI has remained below 1% for 28 months[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for 8 consecutive quarters, with an estimated -1% for Q2 2025[3] - For Q3 and Q4 2025, CPI is projected to grow at -0.1% and 0%, while PPI is expected to decline by -2.5% and -2.1% respectively[3] GDP Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is likely to be around 5.3-5.4%, requiring a second-half growth of 4.6-4.7% to meet the annual target[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate needs to stabilize above 4% for the year[3] CPI Insights - Core CPI has shown an upward trend, reaching 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, the highest since May 2024[5] - Service retail sales growth from January to May 2025 was 5.2%, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively[5] - The contribution of service CPI to overall CPI growth was only 0.17 percentage points, much lower than the previous year's 0.9%[5] Food and Energy Price Trends - Food prices, particularly pork, are expected to face high base pressure in Q3, with a projected negative growth in pork prices due to supply chain factors[24][26] - Oil prices are anticipated to decline further, with Brent crude averaging around $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, leading to a significant drag on CPI growth[35][36] Risks and Uncertainties - Global economic recovery may fall short of expectations, impacting domestic price levels and potentially leading to further declines in export and commodity prices[4] - The effectiveness of industrial policy adjustments and "anti-involution" measures remains uncertain, which could prolong price pressures in certain sectors[4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of having partners or core team members before starting a company, suggesting that without them, the startup's foundation may be flawed [1] - It is advised to prioritize finding people over securing funding, as seeking funding first can lead to unfavorable conditions for future partners [1] Group 2 - The article mentions an event organized by Xu Xiaoping, founder of Zhenge Fund, focusing on consumer reconstruction in China and Japan, featuring top industry mentors [2] - The event is scheduled to take place in Shanghai from August 7 to August 9, with a special early bird price for registration [3][4]

Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 4.3% to 4.5% by Fitch, driven by strong investment, recovering consumer markets, and improving foreign trade conditions [1][2] Investment Dynamics - Productive investment is the main driver of the current economic recovery, with total capital formation in Q1 showing a significant year-on-year increase of 17.5%, marking a post-pandemic high [1] - The Moroccan central bank has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points, with expectations for further reductions, facilitating credit expansion across various sectors, including consumer loans [1] Infrastructure and Major Events - Preparations for major international events such as the 2025-2026 Africa Cup of Nations and the 2030 World Cup are underway, leading to increased investments in infrastructure, transportation, and hospitality [1] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to reach 7.9% in 2025, with a slight decline to 5.9% in 2026, still significantly above historical averages [1] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, driven by low inflation, agricultural recovery boosting farmer incomes, rapid tourism growth, and declining financing costs [2] - Private consumption growth is projected to reach 4.5% in 2025, with continued positive momentum expected in 2026 [2] Inflation and Trade Balance - Inflation expectations for 2025 have been revised down from 1.1% to 0.7%, benefiting from stable energy prices, a weaker dollar, and improved domestic food supply [2] - The trade deficit is expected to improve in 2025 due to reduced agricultural import demand and a recovering European market, supported by Morocco's deep integration with European supply chains [2]

Economic Growth and Contributions - China's GDP has achieved a "four consecutive jumps" over the past five years, with an expected increase of over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to "recreating a Yangtze River Delta" [1] - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth is over 86.4%, highlighting its role as the main driver of China's economy [3] - Final consumption contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4] Infrastructure Development - The national comprehensive transportation network has a completion rate of over 90%, covering over 80% of counties and serving about 90% of the economy and population [7] - The logistics cost savings for society are projected to exceed 4 billion yuan in 2024, with an additional expected savings of around 3 billion yuan this year [7] - The average hourly throughput at national ports is expected to reach 38,000 standard containers by 2024, a 26% increase from 2020 [8] Innovation and Technology - R&D expenditure increased by nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," reaching an increment of 1.2 trillion yuan, with R&D intensity rising to 2.68% [9] - China has achieved significant breakthroughs in innovation, including the launch of the first domestically produced aircraft carrier and the completion of the first Chinese space station [10] Governance and Efficiency - The business environment in China has improved, with over 58 million private enterprises, an increase of over 40% since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [11] - The ability to mobilize and act effectively has been demonstrated in disaster response, such as the rapid organization of rescue efforts following a 6.8 magnitude earthquake [12] Social Welfare and Public Services - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes seven social welfare indicators, the highest proportion in any five-year plan, aimed at enhancing people's sense of gain, happiness, and security [13] - Employment stability has been maintained with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually, and the income growth of residents is synchronized with economic growth [15] - The healthcare system has been expanded, with a significant increase in the number of practicing physicians per thousand people, from 2.9 to 3.6 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, emphasizing the importance of market valuation levels (star ratings) in guiding investment decisions and identifying potential opportunities and risks. Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced slight fluctuations, with large-cap stocks showing minimal volatility while small and mid-cap stocks faced more significant declines [2][3]. - Consumer and pharmaceutical sectors saw minor gains, while the Hong Kong stock market, which had previously risen, faced a downturn [4]. - The article reflects on historical market discussions regarding index levels, noting the challenges of reaching significant milestones like 2000 points during bearish phases [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities by Star Ratings - The star rating system is used to assess market valuation, with 5 stars indicating the best investment opportunities due to low valuations [8][9]. - At 5 stars, the market is often at its most pessimistic, presenting the highest potential for stock and fund investments [10][13]. - A 4-star rating indicates low valuations for some stocks, allowing for selective investment opportunities [15][18]. - A 3-star rating suggests normal valuations, where low-value stocks are scarce, and it may be prudent to pause new investments [20][21]. - Ratings of 2 stars and below indicate a late-stage bull market with most stocks overvalued, where extreme investment opportunities may arise despite general market caution [24][27]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical data shows that as market profitability increases, index points also rise, with examples from past bull markets illustrating this relationship [32][36]. - The article notes that the current market is at 4.8 stars, with discussions about future index levels potentially reaching 4000 or 5000 points [7][29]. - The star rating system has been consistently updated, reflecting the market's journey from 5.9 stars to 1 star over time [28]. Group 4: Tools and Resources - The article introduces a new version of the "Today’s Star" app, which provides expanded index valuation data and allows users to purchase corresponding index funds [46][47]. - The app includes features for filtering indices by categories, enhancing user experience in identifying investment opportunities [46].

Global Market Overview - Schroders has raised its rating on global equities due to weaker-than-expected tariff impacts and a significant decrease in the probability of global economic recession [1] - The resilience of U.S. corporate capital expenditure and the job market supports the equity market, leading to an upgrade of equity ratings from neutral to positive [1] - Emerging markets, particularly Europe, Greater China, and South Korea, are viewed as attractive investment opportunities [1] Fixed Income and Currency - U.S. Treasuries are seen as attractive in terms of valuation, but fiscal expansion and a steepening yield curve limit the potential for interest rate declines [1] - The U.S. dollar faces downward pressure due to narrowing interest rate differentials and macroeconomic policy uncertainties, benefiting emerging markets and local currency-denominated assets [1] Commodity Market Insights - Oil price increases driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East are considered temporary, with expectations of a return to lower prices due to ample global supply and moderate demand in the medium term [1] - Gold remains a core asset supported by ongoing purchases from central banks, although profit-taking pressures should be monitored [1] Sector-Specific Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector shows mixed performance, with copper prices stable due to inventory reductions and electrolytic aluminum prices supported by improved supply-demand dynamics [2] - The industrial manufacturing sector remains stable, but the automotive price war is a significant disruptive factor [2] - The solar photovoltaic industry is entering an adjustment phase after the "531" rush, preparing for future demand growth [2] Consumer and Technology Sectors - The consumer sector exhibits a new and old differentiation, with cultural exports gaining market recognition and new consumption sectors maintaining reasonable valuation levels [3] - The technology sector shows improved sentiment, driven by rising capital expenditure related to artificial intelligence in the U.S., which is expected to positively impact Chinese tech stocks [3] - The Hong Kong market is viewed positively due to an increase in high-quality companies and enhanced policy support, with many A-share companies choosing to list in Hong Kong [3]

展望后市，分析人士认为，情绪价值与体验消费精准触达当下需求痛点，其商业价值正在快速兑现，新 消费板块趋势性行情有望延续。 ● 谭丁豪 葛瑶 2025年新消费板块成港股关注焦点，7月8日老铺黄金股价盘中再创历史新高。消费逻辑正悄然发生转 变，供给侧改革成为驱动行业增长的核心引擎。同时，政策支持、消费倾向转变与产业创新三重因素共 振，推动新消费板块持续走强。 供给端驱动消费升级 7月8日，老铺黄金上涨4.54%，盘中股价触及1108港元/股，再创历史新高。今年以来，"港股三姐妹"中 的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金分别累计上涨201.96%、352.48%，蜜雪集团股价距发行价累计上涨166.17%；此 外，多只新消费标的表现同样亮眼，毛戈平累计上涨81.67%，布鲁可、古茗距发行价分别累计上涨 142.92%、178.67%。 中信建投证券纺服轻工及教育行业首席分析师叶乐认为，新消费业态的出现主要源于两方面因素：一是 消费行业投资逻辑正从需求端逐步转向供给端。过去消费增长多由需求拉动，而近年来需求端增速放 缓，市场更关注具备产品创新、技术创新能力的企业。这类企业能够通过创新开拓新需求，实现非线性 高增长。二是"95后""0 ...