1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: Short - term domestic cotton supply is tightening, and with the arrival of the peak season and the possibility of a rush to purchase, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend before the large - scale listing of new flowers. Medium - term, due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the new year, the market will face pressure during the centralized listing period. If the peak season fails to meet expectations, there may be a decline [3]. - Sugar: Due to the low inventory of domestic sugar and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices, there is some support for Zhengzhou sugar prices, and the short - term decline space may be limited [6]. - Pulp: The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the industry chain lacks positive drivers. Short - term pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,025 yuan/ton, a change of - 215 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,392 yuan/ton, a change of + 149 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,479 yuan/ton, a change of + 151 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Recent market news: In July, Argentina exported 4,131 tons of cotton, a 17.9% decrease from the previous month and a 75% decrease year - on - year. From August 2024 to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative cotton exports were about 87,000 tons, a 26% decrease year - on - year [1]. Market Analysis - International: India extended the temporary tariff exemption period, which supported US cotton. In August, USDA significantly lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, changing the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the output adjustments of some production - increasing countries by USDA may not be in place. The supply - demand expectation of US cotton is expected to improve, but the slow export sales progress restricts the upside space. Short - term ICE US cotton may be difficult to break through the 65 - 70 cents oscillation range. - Domestic: The inventory reduction speed of domestic cotton is continuously fast, and the commercial inventory has dropped to a historical low. Although the sliding - scale tariff quota has been issued, it has not effectively solved the problem of tight cotton use in Xinjiang. The supply - tight pattern at the end of this year remains unchanged. With the arrival of the peak season, demand has improved marginally, providing strong support for domestic cotton prices. The new cotton is growing well, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is increasing. Although the pre - sale of new cotton is hot, there may be a rush to purchase in the early stage due to over - capacity of ginning factories. However, the hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new flowers will limit the upside of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Before the large - scale listing of new flowers, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend; in the medium - term, there may be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,609 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.09%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,825 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast in the central - southern region. Pakistan's purchase of 100,000 tons of sugar has boosted prices. However, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the production - increasing expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains unchanged, so there is limited upside space. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota imports has been high for several months, and the import volume in July increased significantly year - on - year. Processed sugar in August - September is expected to impact the domestic spot market, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Neutral. Due to low domestic sugar inventory and sugar mills' price - supporting intention, the short - term decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of + 22 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.44%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, due to the slow inventory reduction at ports and high inventory levels, the supply pressure of pulp remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is emerging. In China, affected by the traditional off - season, demand is weak, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement. Although there are plans to put into operation a large amount of finished paper production capacity this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Neutral. The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved, and short - term pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Pigs**: Oscillating at a low level [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - **Protein Meal**: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - **Pigs**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - **Sugar**: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - **Pulp**: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - **Logs**: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Oils and Fats**: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - **Protein Meal**: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - **Pigs**: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Macro - environment, weather [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - **Sugar**: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - **Pulp**: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - **Logs**: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - **Oils and Fats**: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Protein Meal**: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - **Corn/Starch**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - **Pigs**: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - **Cotton**: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - **Sugar**: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Logs**: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间9月1日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，原糖期货跌 0.18%报16.34美分/磅，棉花期货跌0.02%报66.53美分/磅，可可期货涨0.52%报7750.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌0.54%报384.00美分/磅。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a historical high but unexpectedly lowered the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tightened supply - demand balance for new - crop US soybeans. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean inventory is expected to continue to accumulate until October and then start to decline. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. In the short term, the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread Data - On August 29, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 95, down 16; in Tianjin, no data was provided; in Rizhao, it was - 55, down 16. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 15, down 16; in Dongguan, it was - 115, down 16; in Zhanjiang, it was - 85, down 6; in Fangcheng, it was - 75, down 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 9, down 13. The M1 - 5 spread was 235, up 10 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 89, up 14. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread in the factory area was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the main contract was 542, down 14 [7] 2. International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0884. The soybean CNF premium showed different trends for different months in Brazil. The domestic soybean inventory in ports and major oil mills was at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory was rising but lower than last year. The feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days were increasing [7] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA August report adjusted the US soybean yield and planting area, and the 25/26 US soybean ending inventory was lowered. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September is expected to be over ten million tons, and the inventory is expected to accumulate until October. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] - Demand: Short - term high存栏 of pigs and poultry supports feed demand, but policy controls on pig存栏 and weight may affect long - term supply. The soybean meal price is cost - effective, but downstream transactions this week were cautious [8] 4. Market Outlook - The 101 contract is weak due to Sino - US negotiation expectations and state reserve releases, but the tight supply - demand of US soybeans supports the CBOT soybean price. The difference between US and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums has narrowed. The 001 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the domestic market, the new corn season is approaching in the Northeast production area. Reserve rotation corn is continuously released to supplement market supply. Traders' confidence in price support has weakened, accelerating the sale of remaining grains. Feed - using enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories and low procurement enthusiasm, preferring to wait for new grains. Some price - setting enterprises have continuously lowered their quotes. Recently, due to short - covering by bears, the corn futures price has rebounded slightly from the low level [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the resumption of work of previously overhauled enterprises, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has rebounded recently, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is still in the off - season, with poor order signing and shipment. The supply of corn starch far exceeds demand, and inventory pressure remains high. Affected by the corn rebound, the starch price has oscillated higher [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The closing price of the active corn starch futures contract is 2193 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), and that of the active corn futures contract is 2500 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan). The 1 - 5 corn monthly spread is - 69 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 1 corn starch monthly spread is - 35 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan). The active - contract positions of yellow corn and corn starch are 974389 hands and 205537 hands respectively, with the latter down 3350 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch and corn are - 83289 hands and - 35460 hands respectively, with the latter down 427 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn and corn starch are 67737 hands and 7450 hands respectively, with the former down 1689 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 226 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. - **CBOT Futures**: The closing price of the active CBOT corn futures contract is 9.25 cents/bushel. The total CBOT corn positions are 1456701 contracts (down 109666 contracts), and the non - commercial net long positions are - 70940 contracts (up 34270 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - **Corn Spot**: The average spot price of corn is 2364.12 yuan/ton (down 0.59 yuan), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the CIF price of imported corn is 1926.14 yuan/ton (down 15.15 yuan). The international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton. The basis of the corn main contract is - 2.59 yuan [2]. - **Corn Starch Spot**: The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 160 yuan (up 1 yuan), and the weekly spread between Shandong starch and corn is 370 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Spot**: The average spot price of wheat is 2428.06 yuan/ton (down 0.83 yuan), the weekly spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 184 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan), and the daily spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 67 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million hectares, etc. The predicted corn yields in these countries are 35.12 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively (only the US yield is down 0.25 million tons) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The corn inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 9.9 million tons, 175 million tons, and 294.2 million tons respectively, with the latter down 20.5 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 131.8 million tons (down 2.1 million tons, a 1.57% weekly decrease, 0.53% monthly increase, and 31.41% year - on - year increase) [2][3]. - **Trade Volume**: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons (down 10 million tons), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons (up 1440 tons) [2]. - **Output**: The monthly output of feed is 2827.3 million tons (down 110.4 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The average inventory days of sample feed corn is 28.13 days (down 0.72 days). The deep - processing corn consumption is 114.02 million tons (up 0.4 million tons). The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42.87% and 51.01% respectively, with the latter down 1.29% [2]. - The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 117 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan), - 51 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and - 79 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan) respectively [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 7.91% (up 0.02%) and 6.37% (down 0.17%) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options on corn are 10.01% (up 0.18%) and 10.02% (up 0.19%) respectively [2]. Industry News - Brazilian ethanol producer Inpasa and grain processing and export giant Amaggi will establish a joint venture to build at least three new corn ethanol plants in Mato Grosso [2]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that the corn harvest in Argentina is nearing completion. As of August 27, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Argentine corn crop was 97.2%, 1.3% higher than a week ago [2]. - Pro Farmer's final yield forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, which is a record high but lower than the USDA's August forecast of 1.6742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [2]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the weekly corn consumption and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by global supply pressure, with USDA's reduction in planting area having short - term positive effects on CBOT soybeans, but the upward momentum of soybean import costs is uncertain. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound [2][4]. - The palm oil export in Malaysia increased in August, and its production had different trends in different periods. The overall situation of the oil market is complex, with both positive and negative factors, and palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [6][9]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to decline in the long - term, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production situation [12]. - The cotton market has the possibility of marginal improvement in fundamentals, and short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at high levels [15]. - The egg market has high inventory and flat demand, and the egg price is expected to first decline slightly and then rise slightly this week. The market needs more forced culling for an upward trend [18][19]. - The pig price increased over the weekend due to supply reduction and demand boost. The 9 - month supply may be weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound in the futures market [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 Important Information - The US soybean market is in a state of shock, and the domestic soybean meal market is relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. The weekend domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly. The US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, and the soybean import cost is weakly stable [2]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the cost performance of soybeans after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to enter the destocking phase in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to try long at the low end of the cost range and be cautious at the high end [4]. Oils Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in August, and its production had different trends in different periods. The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is 19.9 million tons [6]. Trading Strategy - The oil market is affected by both positive and negative factors. Palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly before the inventory accumulates sufficiently and the demand feedback is negative [9]. Sugar Important Information - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated on Friday, and the spot price decreased slightly. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, while the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased [11]. Trading Strategy - The domestic sugar market is expected to decline in the long - term, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production situation [12]. Cotton Important Information - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell on Friday. The spot price decreased slightly. The spinning mill's operating rate increased slightly, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased [14]. Trading Strategy - Considering the approaching consumption season and low inventory, the cotton market has the possibility of marginal improvement, and short - term cotton prices may continue to oscillate at high levels [15]. Eggs Spot Information - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with partial increases. The inventory is still high, and cold - storage eggs entering the market increase the pressure. The demand is flat, but there is room for improvement at the low level [17]. Trading Strategy - The market pessimism intensifies, and the supply - side improvement is limited. The demand can only support the price, and the market needs more forced culling for an upward trend [19]. Pigs Spot Information - The domestic pig price increased over the weekend due to supply reduction and demand boost, and it is expected to continue rising today [21]. Trading Strategy - The futures market's expectation for the future is not high. The 9 - month supply may be weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The fundamentals have no new drivers, and it is waiting for a pullback [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is undergoing a correction [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][9]. - **Soybean No. 1**: It rebounds after an oversold situation [2][9]. - **Corn**: It is moving in a volatile manner [2][12]. - **Sugar**: It is consolidating within a range [2][16]. - **Cotton**: The futures price volatility has increased due to news [2][21]. - **Eggs**: There is strong near - term trading [2][28]. - **Hogs**: At the end of the month, the supply volume decreased, and the price rebounded [2][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,320 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and the night - session was 9,290 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,398 yuan/ton with a - 0.52% change, and the night - session was 8,312 yuan/ton with a - 1.02% change [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1,421,486 tons. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil in September to $124 per ton from $74 in August [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamentals Tracking**: DCE soybean No. 1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,945 yuan/ton with a + 0.46% change, and the night - session was 3,959 yuan/ton with a + 0.66% change. DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,055 yuan/ton with a + 0.53% change, and the night - session was 3,060 yuan/ton with a + 0.43% change [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 29, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to technical buying. China's potential non - procurement of US soybeans still weighs on the market. US North Dakota's soybean yield may be limited by cold weather in spring [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 have a trend intensity of + 1 [11]. Corn - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,238 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% daily change and 2,248 yuan/ton with a 0.45% night - session change. The closing price of C2511 was 2,191 yuan/ton with a 0.60% daily change and 2,192 yuan/ton with a 0.05% night - session change [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port - collection prices range from 2,200 - 2,240 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou's prices range from 2,350 - 2,370 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.37 cents/pound with a - 0.13 change. The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton with a - 10 change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated. India's monsoon precipitation is 6.1% higher than the long - period average. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals Tracking**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,240 yuan/ton with a 1.21% change, and the night - session was 14,015 yuan/ton with a - 1.58% change. CY2511's daily - session closing price was 20,140 yuan/ton with a 0.25% change, and the night - session was 19,960 yuan/ton with a - 0.89% change [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the basis is stable. ICE cotton futures were weak due to concerns about export prospects [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The closing price of egg 2510 was 2,939 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.41% change, and egg 2601 was 3,322 yuan/500 kg with a 0.24% change [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Hogs - **Fundamentals Tracking**: Henan's spot price was 13,780 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,250 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 14,740 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2511 was 13,555 yuan/ton, hog 2601 was 13,870 yuan/ton, and hog 2603 was 13,135 yuan/ton [30]. - **Market Logic**: At the weekend, large - scale hog producers reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded. There is still supply pressure in September. Consider shorting the spread between November and January contracts [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of 1 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, and Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 7,978 yuan/ton with a - 0.72% change, and PK511 was 7,784 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply volume was affected by rain, and new peanuts are expected to be listed around September 20 [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [36].

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures prices have significantly increased this week, with the main contract rising from 8141 yuan/ton to 8388 yuan/ton, an increase of 247 yuan/ton, driven by poor quality of early-ripening apples and low inventory levels [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The opening price of early-ripening apples, such as Chen Yang, Qin Yang, and Gala, is generally higher than the same period last year, with paper-bag Gala prices increasing by 0.3 to 1 yuan/pound year-on-year [1] - Current old apple inventory is at a historical low, creating a tight supply-demand balance that supports apple prices [1] - As of August 28, the national cold storage inventory of apples is 353,500 tons, a decrease of 50,700 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 299,600 tons [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding new season apple production, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 759,300 tons to an increase of 859,300 tons year-on-year [2] - The current apple market fundamentals are relatively stable, with no significant weather-related issues expected to affect fruit size [2] - The apple futures market is primarily focused on new season production and quality expectations, with short-term attention on early-ripening apples and weather impacts on late-ripening Fuji apples [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a possibility of price correction as the actual harvest approaches, depending on weather conditions affecting apple quality [3] - If the weather is favorable during the harvest period, apple quality may improve; however, adverse weather could lead to further price increases [3] - While apple futures prices are expected to remain strong before the new crop is widely available, medium to long-term pressures may arise if late-ripening apples grow well [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Bullish)**: None - **Sell (Bearish)**: None - **Neutral**: None - **One Star (Slightly Bullish/Bearish)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Three Stars**: None Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by policy, trade negotiations, and weather, with short - term focus on policy orientation and long - term supply concerns [2][3] - The palm oil and soybean oil markets are affected by biodiesel policies, and a "crushing for oil" pattern has emerged [3] - The rapeseed market is affected by production forecasts and import expectations, with rapeseed meal potentially rebounding and rapeseed oil remaining range - bound [6] - The corn market is affected by harvest expectations and trade sentiment, with a possible short - term rebound and long - term weakening [7] - The live hog market is under supply pressure and policy influence, with prices expected to remain weak [8] - The egg market shows signs of capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of the year [9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - The price of soybean No. 1 has stopped falling and rebounded, with the spread between domestic and imported soybeans widening. Policy - driven sales have increased supply pressure, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to soybean policies [2] - As of August 26, about 11% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. Global oil prices are rising due to biodiesel policies, which may boost soybean crushing. China may face a soybean supply gap in Q1 next year. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market may continue to be volatile in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term due to the "crushing for oil" pattern and potential supply gaps [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The markets are in a state of shock correction. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decrease in production and an increase in export demand in August. The Indonesian market has better supply - demand prospects. Mid - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and buying on dips can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal may stabilize and rebound slightly after a continuous decline. Rapeseed oil is difficult to break out of the narrow - range shock pattern. The expected production of Canadian rapeseed may exceed the current forecast, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Saskatchewan governor's visit to China [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The auction of imported corn had a low transaction rate. New - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. After the new - season corn starts to be priced in September, it may rebound briefly, but it will continue to be weak at the bottom in the long - term [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices remained stable. The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are expected to remain weak. Policy aims to promote capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices rebounded slightly at a low level, and spot prices fell significantly. The total futures positions have doubled in the past month. Attention should be paid to the seasonal rebound of egg prices. Signs of old - hen culling are emerging, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips can be considered [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and it's advisable to wait for stabilization and go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spread may widen further [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig spot prices are stabilizing with minor fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support around 13800 for the 01 contract [3]. Corn - Spot corn prices are weak, and the futures price has rebounded. In the medium - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the futures valuation may move down towards the new - season cost [6]. Oils - Palm oil maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the industrial consumption in the US is uncertain, and the basis quote will be boosted after the factory inventory decreases [9]. Sugar - Raw sugar is under pressure from increased supply expectations, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating weakly [11]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and new - cotton prices will face pressure after listing [12]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend [15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: Soybean meal spot price in Jiangsu is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Jiangsu dropped 2.34% to 2500 yuan/ton; soybean spot price in Harbin is 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.17% to 225; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal increased 36.36% to 75 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract basis increased 42.42% to - 190; the price of the 2511 contract dropped 1.13% to 13590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations, with the sample - point daily slaughter volume increasing 0.32% to 142240 heads [3]. Corn - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract increased 0.97% to 2185; the 11 - 3 spread increased 40% to - 15 [6]. - **Spot**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit decreased 52.63% [6]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8740 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; the basis decreased 13.73% to 204 [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 9470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased 4.35% to 46 [9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 0.7%; the basis decreased 127.85% to 79 [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract dropped 0.32% to 5602 yuan/ton; the 1 - 9 spread increased 9.09% to - 10 [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning dropped 0.17% to 5910 yuan/ton; the import volume increased 160% to 130,000 tons [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract dropped 0.51% to 13690 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread decreased 20.63% to - 380 [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B dropped 0.06% to 15240 yuan/ton; the commercial inventory decreased 16.9% to 182.02 million tons [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract dropped 1.83% to 2843 yuan/500KG; the 9 - 10 spread decreased 10.13% to - 87 [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area dropped 0.81% to 3.26 yuan/jin; the breeding profit increased 20.84% to - 17.89 yuan/feather [14][15].