Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - London silver is currently trading above $33.54, with an opening price of $33.03 per ounce and a current price of $33.48, reflecting a 1.33% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $33.54, while the lowest was $32.88, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] - The trading range for platinum metal over the past month has been between $31.65 and $33.70, with recent price movements showing uncertainty as it fluctuates around the 20-period exponential moving average [3] Group 2: EU-US Trade Negotiations - EU and US tariff negotiations have resumed but remain fraught with uncertainty, with the EU willing to make concessions on purchasing US natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, while rejecting US demands to eliminate VAT and weaken digital regulations [2] - The US continues to impose a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products and maintains a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods, threatening additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other key sectors [2] - The EU has initiated public consultations on a list of nearly €100 billion worth of goods in response to US tariffs and plans to file a complaint with the WTO regarding US tariffs on cars and parts [2]

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the price trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies of various precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical situations. Overall, different metals have different outlooks, with some being cautiously bullish and others being neutral or cautiously bearish [36][38][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1内外价差结构及比价 - **内盘价差结构**: Presented the SHFE price difference structures of gold, silver, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, stainless steel, and nickel from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [4][7] - **外盘价差结构**: Showed the price difference structures of LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, and the premiums of Comex gold, silver, and copper over London and LME counterparts, covering May 19 - May 23, 2025 [9][12] - **比价**: Included various ratios such as domestic and international copper, lead, aluminum, zinc, nickel, gold, and silver ratios, as well as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel ratios excluding exchange rates from 2021 - 2025 [19][23][26] 3.2各品种观点 - **贵金属**: In the week of May 23, factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and geopolitical tensions influenced the market. Gold and silver are cautiously bullish, with recommended buying ranges of 770 - 775 yuan/gram for gold and 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [36] - **铜**: With tight mine supply and low TC prices, copper is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [38] - **铅**: Currently in the consumption off - season with weak demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the range of 16,920 - 16,950 yuan/ton [39] - **铝**: The supply is stable with a slight increase, while consumption is showing a downward trend. The sustainability of consumption is in question, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [41] - **氧化铝**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price of bauxite has support. The market is expected to remain in a state of supply surplus [42] - **锌**: The supply of zinc ore is stable, and the processing fees are expected to rise. Consumption is relatively strong, but there are risks of marginal decline. The market is neutral [44][45][46] - **镍**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and consumption is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [48] - **不锈钢**: Supply is abundant, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [50] - **硅**: The supply may decrease slightly, and demand is weak. If the southwest silicon furnaces operate normally, inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [52][53] - **多晶硅**: Consumption is showing signs of weakness, and supply is expected to jointly reduce production but is difficult to achieve in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate widely [55][56] - **锂**: Supply may decrease, and consumption is stable. The inventory has increased slightly. The price has fallen to the 60,000 - yuan mark, and it is recommended to sell on rallies if there is a rebound [58] 3.3相关数据跟踪 - **贵金属 data**: Tracked U.S. and European bond yields, inflation expectations, TIPS yields, gold and silver ETF holdings, and CFTC positions from 2021 - 2025 [61][62][65] - **铜 data**: Tracked TC prices, refined - scrap spreads, import profits and losses, CFTC positions, domestic and LME inventories, and downstream sector indices from 2021 - 2025 [74][75][78] - **铝 data**: Tracked seasonal social inventories, LME inventories, cost - profit, and import profits and losses from 2021 - 2025 [80][84][88] - **氧化铝 data**: Tracked prices, total inventories, import profits and losses, and production costs and profits from 2022 - 2025 [95][96][99] - **锌 data**: Tracked price differences, inventories, processing fees, production profits, and import profits and losses from 2020 - 2025 [103][109][113] - **镍 and stainless steel data**: Tracked prices, inventories, premiums, import profits and losses, and profit margins from 2017 - 2025 [124][125][132] - **工业硅 data**: Tracked prices, production costs, and social inventories from 2022 - 2024 [147][148][152] - **多晶硅 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and supply - demand balances from 2023 - 2025 [155][156] - **碳酸锂 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and production from 2021 - 2025 [158][159][161]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand, with specific recommendations for companies such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which continues to suppress copper price increases [1]. - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,790 RMB/ton, down 0.4% from May 16, while the LME copper closing price was 9,614 USD/ton, up 1.76% [1][17]. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory continues to rise, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking against tariffs and the seasonal downturn in demand [1]. - The operating rate of cable enterprises remains above 80%, with production of air conditioners expected to continue growing in June and July [1]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 780,000 tons, down 4.8% from the previous week [2][49]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.4% [2][25]. - Global inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, up 4.7% from the previous week [2]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price reached a new low of -44.30 USD/pound as of May 23, 2025, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16 [3][63]. - The electrolytic copper production in China for April 2025 was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and 14.3% year-on-year [68]. Futures Market - The SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 11% week-on-week, with a total position of 152,000 lots as of May 23, 2025 [4][33]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position decreased by 2.2% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that copper prices are likely to rise in 2025, recommending specific companies for investment [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [3]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies and a weak dollar on gold's safe-haven appeal, suggesting that uncertainty in tariff policies may elevate gold's attractiveness [1][34]. - The copper market is experiencing a period of volatility, with prices remaining in a consolidation phase due to macroeconomic uncertainties and inventory dynamics [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by favorable domestic macro policies and declining social inventories, which are expected to bolster aluminum prices [2]. - The lithium sector is facing challenges with low prices leading to production cuts, indicating that the industry still needs to find a bottom [2]. - The silicon metal market is characterized by weak demand and oversupply, leading to a bearish price outlook in the short term [2]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: The weak dollar and U.S. tariff uncertainties are expected to support gold prices, with recent declines attributed to market corrections [1][34]. - Copper: The market is observing a mixed macroeconomic environment, with a recent PMI reading of 52.3 indicating resilience, but concerns about future economic prospects persist [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic policies are favorable, and social inventories are decreasing, which is expected to support aluminum prices [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Current inventory levels are at 552,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 20,000 tons week-on-week, providing some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum: The theoretical operating capacity of the aluminum industry has increased to 43.865 million tons, with production recovery in certain regions [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have decreased, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 61,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.2% drop [2]. - Silicon Metal: The market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with social inventory at 582,000 tons, indicating a bearish price outlook [2]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for gold; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for lithium [1][2][6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent weakness in the 20 - year US Treasury auction and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's have led to a decline in the 10 - year US Treasury and the US dollar index. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East and concerns about stagflation from tariffs have provided upward momentum for precious metals [2][4]. - For copper, due to factors such as high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns, the copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation [7][10]. - In the case of alumina, the suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea may narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and the price of alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [14][19][20]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, with ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, along with factors like declining LME inventories and increasing imports, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [23][26]. - For zinc, as some smelters resume production and downstream demand remains weak, the zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range [28][29]. - In the lead market, the current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement [31][34]. - For nickel, although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, suppressing the upside of the nickel price [36][39][40]. - Stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term support from production cuts and costs, but lacking upward demand drivers [41][42]. - For industrial silicon, with increasing supply and high inventory, the price is under pressure, and short - term short positions are recommended [45][46]. - In the polysilicon market, with production and demand adjustments and ongoing contract delivery contradictions, short - term short positions are still recommended [48][51][52]. - For lithium carbonate, due to weak downstream demand expectations and high inventories, short positions are advisable [54][57]. - In the tin market, with the phased resumption of African tin mines and limited demand improvement, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.76% to $3314.36 per ounce, and London silver rose 0.95% to $33.38 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.92% to 777.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.86% to 8285 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.56% to 99.60, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.587%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 7.203 [2]. Important资讯 - The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year. There are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the 20 - year US Treasury auction had weak demand [2]. Logic Analysis - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and weak 20 - year US Treasury auctions have led to a decline in the US Treasury and the US dollar index. Fed officials' concerns about tariffs and geopolitical issues in the Middle East have provided upward momentum for precious metals [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. Copper Market Review - The LME copper price fell 0.28% to $9487. LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168,800 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1401 short tons to 173,023 short tons [7]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a winning yield of 5.047%. Peru plans to set up a "mining fund" for small - scale miners. Vicuna expects two copper projects in Argentina to start production in 2030. China's imports of anode copper and electrolytic copper had different trends in April [7][8]. Logic Analysis - US trade negotiations, high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns affect the copper market. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the market may show a back structure in the medium term. Demand remains resilient during the 90 - day tariff suspension [10]. Trading Strategy - The copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures price of alumina 2509 contract rose 1.85% to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. Important资讯 - Bauxite mining in the Guinea AXIS矿区 has been suspended, with an annual capacity of about 40 million tons. The transition authorities in Guinea have designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserves. There was a spot alumina transaction in Guangxi on May 21 [14][15][16]. Logic Analysis - The suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea is likely to narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite. The price of bauxite is expected to rise to $75 - 80. The impact on alumina is more medium - term, and short - term supply and demand may change if alumina production capacities resume [19]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to be strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract fell 30 yuan per ton to 20,185 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. Important资讯 - EU - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The US 20 - year Treasury auction had an impact on the market. Global primary aluminum production in April was 6.033 million tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot imports reached a record high in April [23][25]. Logic Analysis - With ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, the LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, and aluminum imports are increasing. The aluminum consumption shows an upward trend, and the inventory is at a low level, which may support the price spread [26]. Trading Strategy - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; consider long positions in the 06 - 09 contract spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [26]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price fell 1.47% to $2684.5 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan per ton. The spot market had weak downstream demand and a slight decline in the spot premium [28]. Important资讯 - The LME has approved three additional warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The tender price of a zinc mine in North China increased [28][29]. Logic Analysis - As some smelters resume production, supply may increase, while downstream demand remains weak. The zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range, and may decline with inventory accumulation [29]. Trading Strategy - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within a range, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price fell 0.28% to $1978.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2507 contract fell 0.33% to 16,835 yuan per ton. The spot market had regional transactions, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [31]. Important资讯 - China's lead concentrate imports in April decreased 4.3% month - on - month but increased 22.1% year - on - year. Some secondary lead smelters plan to resume production [32][34]. Logic Analysis - The current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement. Short - term macro factors should be monitored [34]. Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy details provided in the text. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $100 to $15,630 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 400 yuan to 123,760 yuan per ton. Spot premiums had different changes [36]. Important资讯 - Nickel Industries' production and sales data in the first quarter of 2025 are reported. Hong Kong has more LME - approved warehouses. In March 2025, there was a supply surplus of 39,400 tons of refined nickel globally [36][39]. Logic Analysis - Although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, and the improvement in the nickel ore shortage situation will suppress the upside of the nickel price [40]. Trading Strategy - The nickel price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel 2507 fell 5 yuan to 12,870 yuan per ton. Spot prices for cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are reported [42]. Important资讯 - China's stainless steel exports decreased 5% in April, and imports increased 10% [42]. Logic Analysis - There may be a supply shortage of 304 stainless steel, but demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is difficult to digest. The price is expected to oscillate widely, following the nickel price and macro - sentiment [42]. Trading Strategy - The stainless steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon main contract fell 1.75% to 7865 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and downstream demand was weak [45]. Important资讯 - The US has launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal [45]. Logic Analysis - With increasing supply and high inventory, the price of industrial silicon is under pressure. Although there is some speculative buying demand below 8000 yuan, the actual supply - demand situation has not improved [46]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money call options; conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 contracts [46]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon main contract rose 0.93% to 35,860 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48]. Important资讯 - China's electricity consumption data in April are reported [49]. Logic Analysis - Production and demand of polysilicon and silicon wafers are adjusted in May, and there is an inventory reduction. The spot price is weak, and there is a contradiction between the downward fundamentals and contract delivery. Short - term fluctuations are intense [51]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract for single - side trading; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; wait and see for arbitrage [52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract 2507 rose 240 yuan to 61,100 yuan per ton. SMM - reported spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [54]. Important资讯 - A lithium - salt project in Yiliping has improved lithium recovery, and a lithium - salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to conduct maintenance [55][57]. Logic Analysis - Downstream demand expectations are weak, and inventories are high. Short positions are advisable until there is a clear signal of overseas mine production cuts [57]. Trading Strategy - Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [57]. Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.36% to 266,150 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees were stable. The market had limited actual transactions [59]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a high winning yield [59]. Logic Analysis - The high winning yield of the 20 - year US Treasury bonds has increased risk - aversion sentiment. African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tightness is expected to ease. The tin price is mainly driven by macro factors [61]. Trading Strategy - The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for options [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The market may show a long - term back structure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of bauxite suspension in Guinea, bauxite price expectations, and domestic alumina capacity changes. For now, arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [14][15][16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [21][24]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [27][28]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on lead prices. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [34][35]. - Nickel prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [38][40][43]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [47][48][49]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [53][54][55]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline. Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [59][60]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be bearish. Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [63][65]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [68][69][70]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 77,920 yuan, down 0.22%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 6,043 lots to 525,000 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Alumina**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 32 yuan/ton to 3,216 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. Positions increased by 19,583 lots to 511,400 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20,270 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 3,682 lots to 520,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 1,119 lots to 227,500 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai showed a slight improvement in trading [26]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract fell 1.21% to 16,685 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Lead index increased its position by 7,829 lots to 73,000 lots. Spot prices decreased [30]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 rose 40 to 123,400 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 687 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [45]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,320 yuan/ton or 0.87%. Positions decreased by 4,639 lots to 54,185 lots. Spot prices decreased [52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly and strengthened slightly, closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Spot prices generally decreased [56]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. Spot prices remained stable [61]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [66]. 3.2 Important Information - **Copper**: Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter has resumed operation ahead of schedule and is expected to reach full - capacity production in December. As of May 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions in China increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected that supply and demand will be weak next week [3]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea Axis mining area has been shut down, and the recovery time is unknown. The Guinea transitional authorities have designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas. Alumina production increased week - on - week, and inventories decreased [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: EU - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. Global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons. China's primary aluminum production in April was estimated to be 3.621 million tons. Aluminum inventories decreased, and imports reached a record high [19][20]. - **Zinc**: As of May 22, zinc inventories in seven major regions in China decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Lead**: Due to continuous losses in the secondary lead smelting enterprises, waste battery purchase prices in many regions have been significantly reduced. As of May 22, lead inventories in five major regions decreased [31][33]. - **Nickel**: In March 2025, the global refined nickel production was 317,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 39,400 tons. From January to March, the supply surplus was 123,000 tons [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's stainless steel exports decreased by 5% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10% month - on - month. As of May 22, stainless steel inventories increased slightly [46]. - **Tin**: In April, the production of integrated circuits, electronic computers, and washing machines showed different trends. African tin mines are gradually resuming production [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The US has launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from multiple countries [57][58]. - **Polysilicon**: In April, China's total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The US is negotiating tariffs, and the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fees is approaching. The spread between Comex and LME is driving the flow of electrolytic copper. Although there is short - term pressure on spreads after delivery, the inventory is still far below the safety level, and demand remains resilient [4]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea policy may reduce the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and bauxite prices are expected to rise. Alumina production increased, but inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is stable. LME aluminum inventories are decreasing, aluminum imports are increasing, and consumption is growing. Aluminum inventories are at a low level, which may support the price difference [21]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and inventories are decreasing [27]. - **Lead**: Secondary lead smelters are still in a loss state, which supports lead prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upward space of prices [34]. - **Nickel**: In the first quarter, there was a surplus of refined nickel. Although nickel ore prices support nickel prices, the supply is expected to increase after May, and demand will enter the off - season [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [47]. - **Tin**: African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tension is expected to ease. The demand side has not improved significantly, and prices are mainly driven by the macro - environment [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. Inventories are high, which suppresses prices [59]. - **Polysilicon**: In May, polysilicon production and silicon wafer production decreased, and inventories are expected to decrease. The spot price is weak, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [63][65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [68]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [24]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuate within a range. Try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [28]. - **Lead**: Fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [35]. - **Nickel**: Weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [41][42][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48][49]. - **Tin**: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [60]. - **Polysilicon**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [69][70].

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

黄金方面： 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前原油市场利多因素匮乏，原油价格偏弱运行将是大概率事件。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情冲高回落且收较长上影线K线，显示上方有一定的压力。指标上看，行情迟迟未能上破62日均线，警惕再度下行风险。 日内关注上方62.68美元一线压力，下方关注60美元一线支撑。 据美联储观察数据显示，美联储六月份维持利率不变的概率是94.7%；7月份维持利率不变的概率是70.3%，9月份维持利率不变的概率为31.3%，累计降息25 个基点的概率为51.6%。美联储年内降息的时间不断推迟，降息的幅度有所下降，短期仍将对金价形成压力。 不过近期地缘方面再起波澜，美国情报部门发现，以色列正在准备袭击伊朗，以总理内塔尼亚胡称将全面控制加沙，对伊朗保留单方面行动权利，倘若冲突 进一步恶化升级，避险情绪的升温短期将为金价提供支撑。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情延续上行且收阳线，显示短期行情较为强势。指标上看，行情上行有效上破20日均线，短期存在进一步走高的机会。日 内关注下方3292美元一线支撑，上方关注3346美元一线压力。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 周三（5月21日）公布美国截至5 ...