Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Both steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. For steel, although the terminal demand in August was under pressure, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious in mid - to late September, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies may also support the demand. For iron ore, despite the long - term pressure on demand due to the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support [1][2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Production, Sales, and Inventory Changes Lead to Differentiated Performance of Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - Last week, affected by fundamental production, sales, and inventory changes, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts showed differentiation. The futures price of the rebar main contract fluctuated weakly, down 0.51% for the week, while the futures prices of hot - rolled coil and iron ore main contracts fluctuated strongly, up 0.72% and 1.27% respectively for the week. The decline of rebar was due to weak consumption and inventory accumulation, while the rise of hot - rolled coil was due to increased consumption and inventory destocking. The rise of iron ore was supported by tight supply caused by a sharp drop in overseas ore shipments and increased demand from the resumption of production of steel mills in North China [4]. 2. The Pressure of Inventory Accumulation of Steel and Iron Ore May Be Limited Due to the Improvement of Supply - Demand, Peak Season Characteristics, and Policy Support (1) Steel: The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - **Terminal demand may be supported**: Although the terminal demand for steel in August was under pressure, in mid - to late September, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies, such as the possible restart of Fed rate cuts, the adequacy of fiscal policy space, and the implementation of relevant policies, may support the demand for steel [10][11]. - **Steel production may be under pressure**: Although the profitability of steel mills is in doubt and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the improvement of steel mill profits still faces challenges due to the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials. The upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may also put pressure on steel production, especially for building materials [22][23]. - **The pressure of inventory accumulation of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited**: Although the terminal demand in August was under pressure and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline last week, the peak season characteristics and policy support may lead to marginal improvement in demand, and the overall inventory accumulation pressure of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited [37]. (2) Iron Ore: Steel Mill Profits Are Still Supported, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - **Iron ore demand may be resilient in the short term but under pressure in the long term**: Although the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may suppress iron ore demand in the long term, in the short term, the peak season characteristics, the release of replenishment demand before the National Day holiday, and policy support may keep the iron ore demand resilient. However, the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials may still pose challenges to steel mill profits and iron ore demand [40][42]. - **The pressure of tight supply of iron ore may be limited**: Overseas ore shipments are entering the peak season, and the new production capacity of overseas mines and domestic "Cornerstone Plan" may increase the supply of iron ore, so the pressure of tight supply may be limited [48]. - **The short - term inventory accumulation of iron ore ports may be limited**: Although there is long - term pressure on iron ore demand and inventory accumulation, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support, so the short - term inventory accumulation amplitude of iron ore ports may be limited [53]. 3. The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - **Steel**: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel producers and traders with high inventory levels are advised to speed up the sales rhythm, while traders with low inventory levels and downstream and terminal procurement enterprises can slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market. Investors are advised to take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [55][56]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel mills or traders with low inventory levels are advised to slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market, while traders with high inventory levels can speed up the sales rhythm. Investors are advised to use a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [57].

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 15, 2025 - Report Author: Tu Weihua Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Ribbed Bars**: The main contract futures price fluctuated upward with a daily increase of 0.93%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, in the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of ribbed bars have not improved, and industrial contradictions have accumulated, putting pressure on steel prices. The relative positives are rising costs and peak - season expectations. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The main contract futures price showed a relatively strong fluctuation, with a daily increase of 0.87%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coils has returned to a high level, while demand is strong, and the fundamentals are stable, supporting the price to run relatively strongly. However, the improvement in demand needs to be tracked. If demand weakens under high supply, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and the price will be under pressure again. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.31%, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the demand for iron ore is fair, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the expectation of supply recovery remains. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not been substantially improved, and the upward expectation of high - valued ore prices is weakening. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **National Economic Operation in August**: In August, macro - policies coordinated to work, and the national economy generally ran stably with progress in transformation and upgrading. But there are still many unstable and uncertain external factors, and the economy still faces risks and challenges [6]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment from January to August**: From January to August 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,261.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In August, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. By industry, the investment in the primary industry was 64.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; the investment in the second industry was 1,182.46 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%; the investment in the third industry was 2,014.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% [7]. - **Steel Production in August**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron output was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel output was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to August, China's crude steel output was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; pig iron output was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; steel output was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [8]. Spot Market - **Black Metal Spot Quotes**: Spot prices and price changes of ribbed bars, hot - rolled coils, Tangshan steel billets, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, as well as prices and price changes of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index are provided [9]. Futures Market - **Main Contract Futures Prices**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of ribbed bars, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore futures are presented. For example, the closing price of ribbed bars was 3,136 yuan, with an increase of 0.93%; the closing price of hot - rolled coils was 3,370 yuan, with an increase of 0.87%; the closing price of iron ore was 796.0 yuan, with a decrease of 0.31% [11]. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes in ribbed bar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils (steel mills + social inventory) [14][16][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, the seasonal inventory of 45 ports in China, and the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills [21][22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the iron concentrate powder inventory of domestic mines, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [26][28][30]. 后市研判 - **Ribbed Bars**: The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 67,500 tons month - on - month, continuing the downward trend from a high level. However, the scope for production cuts during the peak season is uncertain, and inventory has continued to accumulate to a high level, so the supply pressure has been relieved only slightly. Meanwhile, the demand for ribbed bars remains weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 40,000 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions running at a low level. Both are at low levels in recent years and show no signs of marginal improvement. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [33]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Changes have occurred at both the supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, steel mills have actively resumed production, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, returning to a high level this year, increasing the pressure. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 208,000 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions have also rebounded. However, the output of cold - rolled products, the main downstream product, has continued to decline, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which may drag down the demand for hot - rolled coils. The relative positive is the emerging price advantage, and exports may improve marginally. The improvement in hot - rolled coils needs to be tracked. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [34]. - **Iron Ore**: Changes have occurred at both the supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly. Last week, the average daily pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills both rebounded, returning to previous high levels, and the expectation of restocking before the holiday has fermented, so the demand for ore is fair, continuing to support the ore price. However, it should be noted that industrial contradictions in the steel market are constantly accumulating, profits are continuously shrinking, and the room for demand growth is limited. Meanwhile, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has continued to decline, but the overseas ore shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will bottom out and rebound, and combined with the rapid recovery of domestic ore supply, the ore supply is expected to increase. The subsequent trend of iron ore is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [35].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices remained strong last week, influenced by Guinea's government requiring mining developers to build deep processing and smelting plants, alongside a consensus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [1] Supply Factors - Supply expectations for iron ore remain unchanged, with a notable decline in foreign shipments due to reduced output from Vale and non-mainstream miners, while Australian shipments remain stable [1] - The arrival volume of iron ore is slightly lower than the same period last year, and as previous high shipment volumes arrive, supply-side pressure will gradually emerge, reducing support for prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic demand is recovering as environmental production limits in North China are lifted, with an average daily pig iron output of 240.55 thousand tons [1] - Although steel mill profitability has declined, it remains near a five-year high, with blast furnace profits nearing breakeven and short-term losses widespread [1] - Pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills may support iron ore prices [1] Inventory Trends - Steel mills' daily consumption has increased with production recovery, leading to a slight rise in inventory, although still below last year's levels [1] - Port inventories continue to rise, and with the lifting of environmental restrictions, port throughput is expected to increase, while domestic pre-holiday replenishment will likely reduce inventories [1] Market Outlook - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with trading focus shifting to real conditions [1] - As the domestic peak season approaches, attention will be on changes in the black series fundamentals [1] - In the short term, iron ore supply is expected to recover while demand may decline from previous highs, leading to a mid-term shift in supply-demand balance, but pre-holiday replenishment is likely to support prices, with expectations of high-level fluctuations [1]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. Although it's the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils still has some resilience. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue its oscillatory trend. The short - term demand for iron ore is still supported, but the profit rate of steel mills is declining. It is necessary to observe the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [7]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination and other related topics, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives, and attention should be paid to capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [16][17]. - The price of glass has limited room for adjustment, and the market still has expectations for policy support. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term, but the improvement of downstream demand is slow, which will limit its upward space [19][20]. - Although the black - sector prices may experience short - term corrective risks due to the current real - demand situation, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black - sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key node may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (1.131%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3364 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.899%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The export volume of steel has slightly rebounded but remains in a weak and oscillatory pattern. The apparent demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with increasing inventory pressure. The output of hot - rolled coils has rebounded, with relatively good apparent demand and a slight reduction in inventory. The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are diverging [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.50% (+4.00). The weighted holding volume was 85.84 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.95 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.32% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments have significantly declined, and the near - end arrival volume has slightly decreased. The daily average pig - iron output has increased, and the short - term demand for iron ore is still supported. The profit rate of steel mills continues to decline, and both port and steel - mill imported ore inventories have slightly increased [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Prices**: On September 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.32% at 5608 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. The supply - and - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers. Both are likely to follow the black - sector market [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.06% (+5). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 11051 hands to 487604 hands [14]. - **Market Conditions**: The production capacity of industrial silicon is in surplus, with high inventory and insufficient effective demand. Although the production of downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the overall inventory is still at a high level [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (-100). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 2557 hands to 301669 hands [16]. - **Market Conditions**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. The overall inventory reduction space in the industry is limited, and the price is prone to fluctuations with changes in market sentiment [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Prices**: The spot price in Shahe was 1150 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.33% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The glass production has increased, but the inventory pressure has decreased. The downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly, but the market still has expectations for policy support [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Prices**: The spot price was 1197 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased by 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.40% [20]. - **Market Conditions**: The downstream float - glass operating rate has increased, and the photovoltaic - glass operating rate has changed little. The soda - ash production is stable, and the inventory pressure has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term [20].

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为96.4%，降息50个基点的概率为3.6%。美联储 10月累计降息25个基点的概率为16.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为81.0%，累计降息75个基点的概率 为3.0%。 特朗普再度敦促美上诉法院批准解雇美联储理事库克 9月12日，商务部新闻发言人就中美在西班牙举行会谈事答记者问时表示，经中美双方商定，中共中央 政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于9月14日至17日率团赴西班牙与美方举行会谈。双方将讨论美单 边关税措施、滥用出口管制及TikTok等经贸问题。据新华社报道，当地时间9月14日，中美双方在西班 牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。 本周迎来"超级央行周"。美国、日本、英国、加拿大央行将公布利率决议。巴西、南非、挪威央行也将 公布最新政策利率。美联储主席、日本央行行长将于利率决议之后举行货币政策发布会。 美联储将公布9月利率决议 北京时间周四（9月18日）凌晨，美联储将公布9月利率决议结果，目前市场预计其会降息25个基点。如 果结果符合预期，那么预计市场会将焦点转向美联储未来的利率路径上，特别是最新的经济预期、"点 阵图"和美联储主席鲍威尔随后的新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The demand expectation still provides support, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to the high - level maintenance of both supply and demand, and sufficient pricing of macro - level positive factors, along with seasonal demand support from steel mills [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Weekly Viewpoint - The supply side shows that Brazilian Vale's shipments have significantly declined due to port maintenance, and non - mainstream shipments are also weak; the demand side indicates that blast furnace operations have quickly recovered, and the raw material demand expectation remains strong; macro - level factors suggest that the market may have fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectation, and there is still some macro support for commodity valuations. Overall, the iron ore price may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 799.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 543,000 lots (an increase of 41,800 lots). The average daily trading volume was 345,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices were relatively strong, but the price increase of medium - grade PB powder was relatively narrow. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased from 900 to 920 yuan/ton, and the price of PB powder increased from 782 to 794 yuan/ton [11] Iron Ore Supply Side Mainstream Mines - Brazilian port maintenance led to a sharp drop in shipments, and mainstream shipments declined. For example, Brazil's weekly shipments decreased by 509.1 million tons compared to the previous week, and Australia's decreased by 320 million tons [4] Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream shipments also had a phased decline [20] Domestic Mines - The operation in North China has recovered, and the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has been revised upwards [26] Iron Ore Demand Side Downstream - Pig iron production has rapidly recovered, and the port's imported iron ore clearance volume may increase seasonally, with expectations of downstream restocking demand [29] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - Scrap steel arrivals increased again on a week - on - week basis. The scrap - pig iron price difference stopped falling after reaching a recent low [30] Iron Ore Inventory - The port inventory level has been relatively stable recently [32][34] Downstream Profits - Downstream operations have quickly recovered, and profits are oscillating at a low level [37] Spot Category Price Difference - The price of medium - grade PB powder has been relatively weak. The high - medium grade price difference has continued to strengthen, and the medium - low grade price difference has continued to narrow [39][40] Futures Contract Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread reached a phased high (24.5) and then declined [44] Basis Performance - Both futures and spot prices were strong, and the overall basis level has been relatively stable [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut is rising, and tariff disturbances affect the black sector. In the industrial aspect, the decline in iron ore shipments and the increase in molten iron production boost the spot demand. The expectation of stockpiling before the National Day holiday may support the iron ore futures and spot prices to run strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 785 for the I2601 contract and control the operation rhythm and risks. Also, it is suggested to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [8][55] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 799.5 (+10) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 848 (+11) yuan/dry ton [6] - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2756.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800.6 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2329.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 572.5 million tons [6] - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2572.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72.1 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2448.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 78.0 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1320.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.2 million tons [6] - The average daily molten iron production was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [6] - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14456.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1632.42 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8993.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53.18 million tons [6] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [6] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in August only increased by 22,000, far below the market expectation of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Mexico plans to raise the import tariff rates of about 1400 tariff items such as automobiles, toys, steel, textiles and plastics to 10% - 50% for countries including China that have not signed free - trade agreements with Mexico. Domestically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the next - stage work focus, promoting capacity management in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries [8] - Supply - demand aspect: The shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, while the domestic port inventory continued to increase slightly. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron production returned above 2.4 million tons [8] - Technical aspect: The center of gravity of the iron ore I2601 contract moved up, the daily K - line moving average combination was in a long arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis, and the red column was stable [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price fluctuated strongly. The I2601 contract was weaker than the I2605 contract, and the spread on the 12th was 22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton [14] - On September 12, the iron ore warehouse receipt volume at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 0 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 34074 lots, an increase of 9065 lots compared with the previous week [22] - On September 12, the 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 12th was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 572.5 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 72.1 million tons week - on - week [31] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 30.40 million tons week - on - week; the average daily port clearance volume increased by 14.06 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased by 65.51 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore increased by 101.26 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 27.85 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 53.18 million tons week - on - week; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills increased by 15.98 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 1.53 days [34] - As of September 11, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On September 11, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2111, a week - on - week increase of 132 [39] - In August 2025, China imported 105.225 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 602,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 801.618 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 60.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%; the average daily fine powder production was 382,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,000 tons; the inventory was 341,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 129,000 tons [42] - In July 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 86.325 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 595.914 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The fine iron powder output of 433 domestic iron mines in July was 23.119 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 185,000 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [46] 3.4 Downstream Situation - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 326,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative steel export was 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. In August, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6%; from January to August, the cumulative steel import was 3.977 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [49] - On September 12, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.20 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 171,700 tons [52] 3.5 Options Market - With the significant recovery of molten iron production, the spot demand for iron ore increases. The expectation of steel mills to stockpile before the National Day holiday may support the strong operation of ore prices. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].