宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The number of ADP employed people in the US in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000, with the slowest hiring rate since March 2023. After the data release, US President Trump called for a rate cut by Powell [2]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in May was 49.9, contracting for the first time in nearly a year, lower than the expected 52.0 and the previous value of 51.6 [2]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the application method for general - month hedging position limits for caustic soda, p - xylene, and bottle chips, and raised the combined limits for hedging and speculative positions of 14 varieties such as PTA [2]. - There was a rumor that Mongolia would raise the coal mineral resource tax to 20%, but as of now, there is no official decision on coal - related tax changes [2]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in June would be 12.55 million tons, lower than last year's 13.83 million tons and May's 14.2 million tons. It maintains the outlook of exporting 1.1 billion tons of soybeans in 2025, which would set a new record [2]. - Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC+ will continue to accelerate oil production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share, and wants an increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September [3]. Group 2: Commodity Market Capital Proportion - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are: non - metallic building materials 2.57%, precious metals 29.99%, oilseeds 11.62%, soft commodities 2.45%, non - ferrous metals 20.38%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.59%, energy 2.39%, chemicals 12.81%, grains 1.51%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.69% [4]. Key Attention - Key commodities to focus on are urea, rebar, Shanghai copper, and plastic [6]. Night - session Performance - Information about the night - session performance of commodity futures main contracts includes their price changes and position - increasing ratios [6]. Position Changes - Data shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [7]. Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of various equity indices are presented, such as the Shanghai Composite Index with a daily increase of 0.42%, a monthly increase of 0.86%, and an annual increase of 0.73% [9]. Fixed - income - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of different - term treasury bond futures are provided, for example, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.04%, and an annual decrease of 0.15% [9]. Commodity - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of commodities are shown, like the CRB commodity index with a daily decrease of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 2.11%, and an annual decrease of 0.06% [9]. Others - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of the US dollar index and CBOE volatility are given, with the US dollar index having a daily decrease of 0.47%, a monthly decrease of 0.63%, and an annual decrease of 8.91% [9].

Group 1 - The US and China reached a consensus on significantly reducing tariffs and establishing a consultation mechanism during the Geneva trade talks [1][11] - The US government agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese imports from 125% to 10% for a temporary period of 90 days [1] - The overall tariff level on Chinese goods was reduced from 145% to 30% after adjustments related to the fentanyl issue [3] Group 2 - American companies, particularly in the automotive parts and agricultural sectors, are optimistic about the potential recovery of orders from China and are preparing to increase production and hire more employees [6][8] - Despite the reduction in tariffs, American companies have not seen a significant influx of orders from China, indicating a disconnect between expectations and reality [8][12] - US soybean exporters are particularly affected, as China has shifted to sourcing soybeans from Brazil and other countries due to the trade war, leading to a loss of market share for US products [14] Group 3 - The trade war has led to a significant shift in China's sourcing strategies, with Chinese companies seeking alternatives to US products, such as propane from Canada and the Middle East [10][20] - The trend of decoupling from the US market is becoming more pronounced as Chinese companies diversify their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with reliance on US imports [20][22] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding US trade policies under the Trump administration has caused Chinese companies to be cautious about re-engaging with US suppliers [16][18]

6. 一财记者走访多家供应商发现，随着中国汽车市场打起"价格战"，上游企业利润空间持续压缩至 10%，账期也长达120天。业内人士认为"价格战"可能导致供应商陷入亏损和汽车质量安全问题。 7. 上期所公告，自2025年5月29日（星期四）收盘结算时起，氧化铝期货合约的涨跌停板幅度从7%上调 至9%，套保交易保证金比例从8%上调至10%，投机交易保证金比例从9%上调至11%；白银期货合约的 涨跌停板幅度从11%上调至12%，套保交易保证金比例从12%上调至13%，投机交易保证金比例从13% 上调至14%。 8. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解，贵州某中型氧化铝企业近日开始复产，暂未形成满产，阶段运行产能60 万吨左右，以满足长单交付为主，后续企业重点关注近期氧化铝价格走势再定满产节奏 9. 国际铝业协会（IAI）数据显示，2025年4月全球氧化铝产量为1240.7万吨，日均产量为41.36万吨；中 国2025年4月氧化铝预估产量为738.4万吨。 金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月28日） 1. 上期能源公告，自2025年5月29日（星期四）收盘结算时起，集运指数（欧线）期货合约的涨跌停板 幅度从16%上调至1 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - **Cotton**: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - **SC**: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - **LU**: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - **PG**: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - **PX**: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - **Tin**: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].

日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级，5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级，这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级，对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升，美元短期走弱。 宏观策略（黄金） 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨，在 3200 美金附近运行，俄乌谈判扰动市场， 穆迪下调美国主权评级，对金价构成提振，但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨，钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上，豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期，现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属（锌） 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： | 862 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows steady growth in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in yuan terms and 1.3% in dollar terms, indicating a recovery in the economy [1][2]. Trade Performance - In April, China's import and export value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. Exports saw a slight decline in growth rate to 9.3%, while imports turned from a decline to a growth of 0.8% [1][2]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.5%, accounting for over 60% of total exports. Key products such as automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles saw growth rates of 5.6%, 14.7%, and 4% respectively [2]. - The import of crude oil increased by 0.5%, while imports of iron ore, coal, natural gas, soybeans, and refined oil saw a decrease, with overall prices (excluding refined oil) declining [2]. Trade Methods and Entities - General trade saw a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, making up 64% of total foreign trade. Processing trade and bonded logistics trade grew by 6.6% and 7% respectively [3]. - Private enterprises accounted for 8.05 trillion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, representing 56.9% of total foreign trade, marking a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous year [3]. - Foreign-invested enterprises experienced a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3]. Trade Partners - Trade with neighboring countries reached 5.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with growth accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Notably, trade with ASEAN and Central Asian countries grew by 9.2% and 9.9% respectively [3]. Industry Analysis - The proportion of high-tech industries in exports has increased, enhancing resilience against external pressures such as tariffs. The focus on market diversification and the development of new business models like cross-border e-commerce is crucial for maintaining market share [4]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to three factors: the increased share of high-tech industries, the dominant role of private enterprises in responding quickly to global market demands, and the proactive expansion into neighboring markets [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in China's oil procurement strategy due to escalating US-China trade tensions, with Chinese refiners reducing oil imports from the US by up to 90% while increasing imports from Canada dramatically [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Procurement Changes - China's oil imports from Canada surged to 7.3 million barrels in March, reaching unprecedented levels, with expectations for further increases in April [1][3]. - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) in Canada has facilitated easier access for Chinese imports of Alberta's oil sands, providing a stable and cost-effective supply to meet China's energy needs [3]. Group 2: Impact on US Oil Industry - The shift in orders from China to Canada has significantly impacted the US oil industry, leading to a substantial decline in US oil exports and a direct financial loss estimated in the billions, based on an international oil price of $61.5 per barrel [3][5]. - The reduction in oil orders has caused a ripple effect on the US supply chain and job market, resulting in revenue declines for related companies and potential layoffs, thereby exerting pressure on the US economy [5]. Group 3: Broader Trade Adjustments - In addition to oil, China has also adjusted its trade patterns for other commodities, such as soybeans, significantly increasing imports from Brazil and thereby reducing reliance on US agricultural products [6]. - These adjustments reflect China's proactive approach to mitigate the impacts of the trade war and reduce dependency on US goods, demonstrating the substantial costs incurred by the US as a result of the trade conflict [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - China's energy strategy adjustments are reshaping the international power balance, challenging the US's long-standing dominance in the energy sector and contributing to a more diversified geopolitical landscape [8]. - The transition of 7.3 million barrels of oil orders to Canada symbolizes a broader trend of China diversifying its energy partnerships, enhancing its energy security, and contributing to global energy market dynamics [8].