1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term. Gold is expected to be weak in the short term due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict. The stock market's high - risk preference may continue, and the high - level oscillation pattern will persist. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through. Most commodities face supply - side pressures, and their prices are expected to be under pressure, while some may have short - term trading opportunities [12][16][18][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - International Atomic Energy Agency plans to return to Iranian nuclear facilities. Powell's congressional stance is hawkish, negating short - term rate - cut expectations, so the Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [10][12]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Powell said the US is not in a recession. If inflation or the labor market is weak, the Fed may cut rates early. Bostic believes there is no need to cut rates currently but expects a 25 - basis - point cut later this year. Gold prices have fallen by more than 1% due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment after the Iran - Israel cease - fire [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index has regained 3400 points. Six departments have issued a document to promote consumer finance support. The stock market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict, and the high - risk preference may continue, with the high - level oscillation pattern persisting [17][18]. - Investment advice: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in June was lower than expected. Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see attitude and did not rule out the possibility of an early rate cut. After the Iran - Israel cease - fire, the market risk preference has improved significantly, and the technology sector has led the index [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: US stocks are expected to oscillate weakly at the current level [22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations and 406.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The central bank's over - renewal of MLF shows its intention to protect liquidity. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through [23][24]. - Investment advice: Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in April increased to 3.04 million tons. The palm oil market is affected by the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the decline in crude oil prices. The market is in a game between production increases in the origin and inventory accumulation in the sales area [26]. - Investment advice: Wait for the market sentiment to stabilize and then gradually arrange long positions in the far - month contracts [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - It is predicted that Brazil's sugar production will increase by 2.7% in the 2025/26 season, and the global market may have a supply surplus of 2.6 million tons. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the international sugar price is under pressure from the supply side [29][30]. - Investment advice: The rebound space and sustainability of Zhengzhou sugar are limited [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn - starch exports in May continued to rise. The export policy has been relaxed, but the export proportion is still relatively small. The core factor of the starch supply - demand situation may be the cassava substitution [31][32]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see mainly [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of Northeast corn is running strongly, but the futures price has started to fall. The warehouse receipt pressure may appear, and the old - crop contracts are expected to oscillate narrowly [33]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities for new - crop contracts 11 and 01 when the production situation is clearer [33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference of imported steam coal exists. The coal price has eased in June, and the demand has a seasonal recovery. The short - term price is expected to be stable [33][34]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is expected to be stable [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Malaysia has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese cold - rolled steel coils. The iron ore price is in an oscillating market, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [36]. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate weakly, with the spot weaker than the futures [37]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of organic silicon DMC has been slightly adjusted upwards. The resumption of production of industrial silicon is greater than the reduction, and the demand is not improving significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [38]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [38]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has extended the informal mining temporary license to the end of the year. The macro - level factors for copper are mixed in the short term. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. The copper price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [43]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy for single - side trading and wait patiently for cross - period layout opportunities [43]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In May, the import and export volume of Philippine nickel ore increased. The nickel market has a tight supply of high - grade nickel ore, and the nickel - iron supply is expected to be in surplus in June. The pure - nickel price is oscillating weakly [44][45]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [45]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The market is trading the expectation of improved demand. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the supply of recycled lead has decreased. The demand is in the off - season and is expected to be weak until July [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the short term, and wait and see for cross - period and cross - market arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount. Some zinc smelters are resuming production. The supply of zinc is increasing, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strengthening, but the inventory accumulation height is limited. The zinc price decline may be a tug - of - war process [49]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies, pay attention to the 21500 - 21600 yuan support level, and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [49]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium projects have obtained approvals or financing. The LC2507 contract has a high position, and attention should be paid to the position - reduction rhythm before entering the delivery month [51]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions at the current level, consider partial profit - taking for previous short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [52]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude - oil inventory has decreased. Oil prices have continued to fall, and the risk premium has been significantly reversed. The supply of the crude - oil market has high potential for increase in the medium - to - long term [53][54]. - Investment advice: The short - term risk premium will be reversed [55]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Some urea plants have had failures and stopped production. The urea price is falling, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. The key variable lies in the export [57]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in export quotas and overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [57]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle - chip factories has been partially reduced. The polyester raw material price has fallen significantly, and the bottle - chip industry plans to reduce production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of the impact of raw - material price fluctuations [61]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market is oscillating at a low level. The fundamentals are under pressure, with supply stable and demand weak [62]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in the Shahe market is stable. The glass demand will decline seasonally, and the supply will be relatively stable. The price has downward adjustment space [64]. - Investment advice: The short - term rebound may be difficult to sustain, and the price has downward adjustment space [64]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene has been reduced. The supply of styrene is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The pure - benzene price may have some repair space [67]. - Investment advice: The styrene price depends on the oil price and supply disturbances, and pay attention to the impact of the home - appliance subsidy policy [67]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has risen. The carbon - market trading has increased slightly, but the supply - demand structure is expected to be loose this year, and the price is under pressure [68]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [69].

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 交割规则改变，纸浆冲高回落 棉花观点 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13465元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.22%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14780元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，现货基差CF09+1315，较前一日变动+46；3128B棉全国均价14894元/吨， 较前一日变动+15元/吨，现货基差CF09+1429，较前一日变动+45。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司(CONAB)6月份发布的2024/25年度最新产量预测数据：本年度巴西棉花总 产预期为391.3万吨，较上一月调增0.8万吨。本年度种植面积下调至208.15万公顷，单产上调至125.3公斤/亩。Conab 小幅上调巴西棉产量评估，但种植面积下调。不过由于23/24年度陈花销售较好，下调了24/25年度期初库存，因此 期末库存评估下调。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。宏观方面，中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过此次谈判中 并没有明显利好中国对美出口的协议达成，宏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is in a state of shock, with the domestic market having a tightening supply - demand expectation in the later part of this year, but the new - year planting area is increasing and the demand is in the off - season. The international market is affected by the USDA report and weather conditions, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle, with the 25/26 season's supply changing from shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is dragged down by the weak external market [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,775 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan's exports: In May 2025, textile and clothing exports were 1.531 billion US dollars, down 1.75% year - on - year and up 25.42% month - on - month [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil's ports: As of the week of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, down 56,500 tons (1.94%) from the previous week [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,254 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian needles was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Imports: China's pulp imports in May 2025 were 3.016 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, but the macro - environment is still uncertain [2] - International: The USDA report adjusted down the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and the ending stocks decreased. The US cotton - growing areas have improved drought conditions [2] - Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is accelerating the destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [2] Sugar - International: Although energy prices support the international sugar price, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India and Thailand has put pressure on the price [5] - Domestic: The domestic sales data is good, but the supply pressure is increasing due to the weakening of the external market [6] Pulp - Supply: The long - term contract price of Arauco has been continuously lowered, and the domestic imports have increased. The port inventory is at a high level [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak. The papermaking industry is in the off - season [7] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the cotton price to fluctuate in a range in the short term [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral - to - bearish strategy, and focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the pulp price to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Fundamentals in Malaysia are favorable with a 4% decline in production and a 14% increase in exports in the first half - month. BMD palm oil is in a stagnant and adjusted pattern near 4100 ringgit, with support around 4000 ringgit. Domestic palm oil has limited demand and is easily affected by the international market [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA's bio - diesel proposal is positive, and the May US soybean oil inventory was lower than expected. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and rising CBOT soybean prices support the market [1]. Meal - The market is affected by policies such as China - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel mixing requirements. Brazilian soybean sales progress has declined recently, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [3]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high. In the long term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [5]. Pork - The spot price of pork is in a volatile structure. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and the upward drive is weak. However, there is support from the purchase and storage policy [9][10]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, and the original sugar is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak and volatile [14][15]. Cotton - The old - crop basis supports cotton prices, but the expected high yield of new cotton creates long - term pressure. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. Eggs - The national egg supply is large. It is expected that egg prices will decline slightly and then stabilize next week, with some factors potentially pulling up prices later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean oil**: On June 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8320 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7614 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 706 yuan/ton, down 2.49% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8810 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2509 was 8284 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the basis was 526 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; the futures price of O1509 was 9230 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 520 yuan/ton, up 11.59% [1]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; the basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 23.20% [3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the basis was - 72 yuan/ton, up 20.88% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: On June 17, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2364 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the basis was 6 yuan/ton, down 71.43% [5]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 35 yuan/ton, up 12.90% [5]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13305 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Live Pig 2509 was 13815 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the 7 - 9 spread was 510 yuan/ton, up 7.37% [9]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan and Shandong were 14250 yuan/ton and 14500 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5554 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the price of Sugar 2509 was 5691 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; ICE raw sugar was 16.45 cents/pound, down 3.35% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6030 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price in Kunming was 5865 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13525 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of Cotton 2601 was 13530 yuan/ton, unchanged; ICE US cotton was 67.64 cents/pound, down 0.60% [17]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14762 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14862 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [17]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3649 yuan/500KG, down 0.55%; the price of the Egg 07 contract was 2855 yuan/500KG, down 1.35% [19]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.77 yuan/jin, up 2.49% [19].

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current tariff policy has high uncertainty, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in Xinjiang in the new year. The domestic market has entered the consumption off - season, and Zhengzhou cotton may bottom out again after a short - term rebound. The core contradiction lies in the time when downstream demand recession spreads to the upstream [2] - Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The 2025/2026 global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar may continue to weaken in the medium - to - long term [4][5] - Macro - level positive factors drive the pulp price to recover from the bottom, but the tariff uncertainty is still strong. As the off - season approaches and the terminal demand outlook is pessimistic, the pulp price may continue to oscillate at a low level [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,485 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton. As of the end of May, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons (-16.71%) from the previous month and 315,400 tons (-8.36%) lower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, boosting the domestic cotton price. The US cotton sowing progress is slow, but the rainfall in the main producing areas has improved the drought. The international cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is accelerating destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, with insufficient support on the demand side [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5734 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production in the first half of May decreased year - on - year, but the sugar - making ratio rebounded. The production in India and Thailand in the new season is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus. Domestically, the sugar sales and production data are good, but the long - term import pressure is increasing, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the raw sugar to weaken [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5394 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton (+2.16%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was generally stable, with some fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - The macro - level sentiment improved, boosting the pulp market. The Arauco long - term contract price has been continuously lowered, and the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to rise in the short term [6]

文字早评 2025/06/03 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.47%，创指-0.96%，科创 50-0.94%，北证 50-0.51%，上证 50-0.45%，沪深 300-0.48%， 中证 500-0.85%，中证 1000-1.03%，中证 2000-1.75%，万得微盘-1.16%。两市合计成交 11392 亿，较上 一日-462 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、美方称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部新闻发言人：中方坚决拒绝无理指责。 2、中国 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5，符合预期。 3、工信部：加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度。中汽协：无序"价格战"加剧恶性竞争，挤压企 业利润空间，影响产品质量和售后服务保障。 4、特朗普宣布自周三起上调钢铝关税一倍至 50%。欧盟：表示遗憾，准备反击美国。 资金面：融资额-11.29 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+6.00bp 至 1.4710%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.23bp 至 3.0414%，十年期国债利率-1.90bp 至 1.6762%，信用利差+0.67bp 至 137bp；美国 10 ...