Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report focuses on the impact of the Iran - US situation on various financial and commodity markets. The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to significant fluctuations in multiple markets. It has affected the prices of precious metals, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and various commodities, and different markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and geopolitical factors [2][3][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's new supreme leader calls for continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a nearly 2% drop in gold prices. The two - year US Treasury yield has been rising, and funds are flowing to more certain crude oil and chemical products, putting pressure on precious metals. Short - term liquidity tightening expectations increase, and precious metals are under pressure [3][12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of decline [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary says the US Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and is not worried about the fiscal cost of the Iran war. Trump's positive attitude towards the Iran war reduces the short - term possibility of TACO, weakens market risk appetite, and causes the US dollar to rise [14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will continue to strengthen [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran's new leader states that it will not give up revenge and will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US energy minister says the navy is not ready for escort. The short - term situation in the Middle East is still uncertain, and the high oil price has led to inflation concerns and a decrease in the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, putting pressure on the US stock market [17][18]. - Investment advice: The US stock market will continue to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to take a risk - averse and wait - and - see approach [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Tax data shows that the sales of high - tech industries in the first two months have increased well. The US has launched a "301" clause investigation against 16 countries and regions. The tense situation between the US and Iran has led to high energy prices, affecting the stock market. Energy and coal - chemical stocks are strong, while technology stocks are weak [20][21]. - Investment advice: For the stock index, it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and go long on IM and short on IF for the hedging arbitrage strategy [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 24.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan. The reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates is a short - term disturbance. Inflation is likely to be the main factor in the bond market. As time goes by, the probability of an increase in the oil price center is rising. After the market digests the news of the reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher than that of long - buying [23]. - Investment advice: After the market digests the positive news, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher [24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 12, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The market trading was cold, and the downstream purchasing intention was poor. As the conflict continues, the probability of the domestic port spot price rising after 1 - 2 months is increasing [25]. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to overseas energy and oil and gas changes [25]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore ships originally bound for the Middle East have changed their routes to China. The BHP long - term contract negotiation has affected the market, and the iron ore price has been impacted by factors such as rising crude oil costs and negotiation disturbances in the past week, but the market trading sentiment is not high [26][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [27]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to February, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased. As of March 12, the inventory of five major varieties increased slightly, with the inventory of building materials increasing and the inventory of coils starting to decrease slightly. The cost is supported by energy prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of steel prices [28][29]. - Investment advice: Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals still limit the upward space [30]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - La Nina is about to end, and El Nino may come in the middle of the year. The increase in crude oil prices, CBOT soybean futures prices, and shipping costs has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China. The market is worried about the shortage of imported soybeans from March to April, and the near - month futures price of soybean meal has reached a new high [5][31][33]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal may remain strong in the short term. Pay attention to the Middle East situation, US biofuel policy, Sino - US relations, China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic reserves, customs policies, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans from March to April [33]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 12, the average inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the weather warms up, and the port inventory in the south is accumulating. The downstream demand has support, but there are still risks such as concentrated grain sales in the Northeast and potential disturbances from wheat auctions [34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market is affected by multiple factors. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upward range is limited. Pay attention to weather, corn reserve purchase policies, and wheat auction dynamics [35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium production guidance of Australian Liontown in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged. The inventory of lithium carbonate shows different trends in different sectors. The supply is affected by multiple factors, and the demand in March has increased as expected. In the short term, the demand is supported, but there are uncertainties in the long term [36][37][38]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the spot is relatively loose, but the direct demand is still supported. In the long term, there is a high - level logic of new energy replacing old energy. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the price correction [39]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have declined slightly, mainly following the fluctuations of precious metals. The geopolitical situation is still tense, and the supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium have changed. In the short term, they may fluctuate, and platinum may perform better than palladium [40][41][42]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, use the reverse - spread idea for the month - spread, wait and see for the internal - external spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [42]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The import of refined lead has increased, and the consumption of lead is weak. The price of lead may continue to be weak, but there is support at the cost of recycled lead [43][44]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see [45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has increased. The geopolitical situation affects the zinc market, and the domestic supply and demand are weak. The zinc price has priced in the previous disturbances, and the risk of recession trading is increasing [46][48]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see for the month - spread and maintain the internal - external positive - spread idea in the medium term [49]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Harmony Gold has achieved copper production, and the environmental assessment of Peru's Trapiche copper project has been approved. The new situation in the Middle East has reignited concerns about rising energy prices, and the short - term copper price will be affected by negative sentiment. The domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot is expected to maintain a premium [50][51][53]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term; for the arbitrage strategy, pay attention to the internal - external positive - spread operation [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin shows a discount, and the domestic warehouse receipts of tin futures have increased. The supply of tin ore has eased in the short term, but there are uncertainties in the long term. The demand is currently weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: Affected by the situation in the Middle East, it will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [57]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore has increased. The price difference between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil has reversed, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger. As long as the escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz does not make a breakthrough, the price difference is expected to continue to widen [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: There is still an upward risk in the short - term price of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil [61]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On March 12, the PX price increase expanded. The supply of PX is affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the downstream polyester factories' willingness to reduce production has increased. Due to the shortage of raw materials and the expectation of continuous inventory reduction, PX is expected to remain strong in the short term [62][63]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene has decreased. The trading logic of styrene is related to the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz. If the flow rate cannot recover to more than 25% of the normal level by the end of March or early April, there is a risk of a short squeeze in April. The long - term impact may lead to an increase in the price center of mid - stream chemicals [64][65][66]. - Investment advice: The high volatility of the absolute price of styrene is expected to continue. In a high - volatility state, it is recommended to use light positions. Be vigilant against the potential short - squeeze risk [66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers has decreased. The glass market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The follow - up inventory reduction is difficult [67]. - Investment advice: The glass futures may fluctuate greatly in the short term due to the impact of the energy market and its own low price [67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of March 12, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The soda ash market is affected by energy prices, but the supply is still in a state of over - capacity. There is short - term support, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the energy price inflection point [68][69]. 2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping has stopped all services at a port in Panama. The spot market has both positive and negative factors. The cost of long - term contracts is rising, but the short - term cargo - booking pressure is still large. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the market is expected to fluctuate widely [70][71][72]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous recommendation of over - allocating stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic commodity futures market, most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, and other sectors also showed different trends [1]. - For the US dollar monetary policy expectations, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which affects the market's long - term inflation and economic judgments. The Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1]. - In the short term, the performance of stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, asphalt in chemicals rose 5.68%, PVC in non - metallic building materials rose 4.40%, the container shipping index (European line) in shipping futures rose 3.07%, palm oil in oils and fats rose 2.43%, coking coal in the black series rose 2.13%, eggs in agricultural and sideline products rose 0.58%, industrial silicon in new energy materials rose 0.41%, Shanghai silver in precious metals fell 2.51%, and Shanghai tin in base metals fell 0.89% [1]. - **Financial Market**: The CSI 300 futures fell 0.5%, the SSE 50 futures fell 0.52%, the CSI 500 futures fell 0.74%, and the CSI 1000 futures fell 0.46%. The 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%. The US dollar index rose 0.32%, and other indices also showed different changes [7]. - **Industry Index**: The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose 1.24%, the national defense and military industry index fell 2.39%, and other industry indices also had different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 5.94%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.64%, COMEX gold fell 1.11%, and other overseas commodities also showed different price changes [10][11]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: The container shipping index (European line) rose 3.2%, gold fell 0.34%, silver fell 0.88%, and other domestic commodities also had different price fluctuations [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: Due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event shocks, stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and it's necessary to observe domestic economic data to form the next round of trend [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, their performance may be affected [1]. - **TS, TF**: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be shock - strong, stock index options are expected to be shock, and Treasury bond futures are expected to be shock [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be shock [4]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be shock [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., are mostly expected to be shock, with some varieties having a shock - weak tendency [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [5]. - **Agriculture**: Oils, grains, and other varieties have different short - term trends, such as shock - strong, shock - weak, etc. [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On March 12, equity index futures dropped, and most commodities rose, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IC dropped 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, LSFO, Paraxylene, and Crude Oil were the top three gainers, while Apple, Silver, and Palladium were the top three decliners [10][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 12, equity index futures dropped, and most commodities rose, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. IC dropped 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were LSFO, Paraxylene, and Crude Oil, and the top three decliners were Apple, Silver, and Palladium [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 12, the Crude Oil main contract rose 11.3% to 722.3 yuan/barrel (INE). Strategic petroleum reserve releases will not reverse supply tightness expectations, leaving oil prices strong. Geopolitical uncertainty and passive production cuts will keep the market volatile and biased upward [18][20][21]. 1.2.2 LSFO - On March 12, the main contract of LSFO rose 14.8% to 5653 yuan/ton (INE). LSFO is pressured by green fuel substitution and limited HSFO replacement demand, but is currently undervalued and moves with crude oil. It has strong primary product attributes, and its crack spread strengthens when crude oil prices rise. Fundamentally, it enjoys a more favorable export tax rebate rate than refined oil products [25][26][27]. 1.2.3 Paraxylene - On March 12, the main contract of Paraxylene rose 13.0% to 10218 yuan/ton (ZCE). Cost increases have evolved into actual supply shocks, with force majeure declared at multiple refineries in the Asia - Pacific. Short - term prices will stay strong, and the medium - term logic of buying on dips holds. PX 05 - 09 month spread is recommended for positive calendar spread, and PXN is expected to trade range - bound between USD 250–330/ton [32][33][34]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - IEA Member States Agree to Release 400 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves. The 32 member states of the International Energy Agency will release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. - U.S. to Release 172 Million Barrels from Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The U.S. will start releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve next week, which is expected to take about 120 days. - U.S. February CPI Rises 2.4% YoY, Core CPI Up 2.5% YoY. U.S. CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year in February, and core CPI increased 2.5% year - on - year. The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again as early as July. - U.S. to Launch Section 301 Investigations Against 16 Trading Partners. The U.S. will launch Section 301 investigations against 16 trading partners, including China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, India, and Japan [37].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 50.12 CNY [6][49]. Core Insights - The core focus of the report is on the significant advantages in asset management, particularly in the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) business, which is driven by a stable team and systematic operations. The company is expected to see growth in its asset management performance, brokerage business recovery, and innovation in business expansion, all contributing to profit release [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Corporate Governance - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder maintaining a consistent stake of 75.57% since its IPO, which supports strategic continuity [17][18]. - The management team is experienced, with many members having over 20 years of tenure, which enhances execution efficiency and strategic alignment [19][20]. 2. Financial Performance - The company has experienced fluctuations in performance but is now entering a recovery phase, with brokerage business providing stable income and asset management business showing the fastest growth [21][22]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to recover from 2.44 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.83 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a strong rebound [22]. 3. Asset Management Business - The CTA strategy is highlighted as the company's strongest business segment, with a focus on active management rather than just scale [29][31]. - The asset management revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase from 1.13 billion CNY in 2024 to 1.21 billion CNY in 2025, driven by product expansion and improved performance [31][32]. 4. Brokerage Business - The brokerage business is transitioning towards institutional and industrial clients while maintaining a strong retail base. The company has added 15,679 new clients in 2024, with a significant portion being institutional [36][39]. - The brokerage income is expected to recover, with projected revenues of 1.92 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 11.22% [39][40]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 18.8 billion CNY in 2025, with net profits of 5.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.8% [46][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupting Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports, many Asian refineries and petrochemical enterprises are cutting production capacity and declaring force majeure [3]. - For crude oil futures, in the medium - term, three variables need to be focused on: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy implementation rhythm. It is recommended to trade within a range and avoid unilateral chasing [4]. - For the stock market, the adjustment in the early trading tomorrow is a good low - buying opportunity. The market showed strength today as it did not decline when it should [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The war between the US, Israel and Iran has disrupted Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports. Asian steam cracking plants with over 60% of naphtha raw materials from the Middle - East have declared force majeure [3]. - Three operators are reducing production loads to use raw material inventory for the next month to avoid full - scale shutdown. Restarting a steam cracking unit takes up to two weeks, and factories usually don't store more than a month's worth of raw materials [3]. - In the medium - term, focus on three variables: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium (the 8 - 10 dollars/barrel premium will fade if the strait passage recovers), supply - demand fundamentals (OPEC + production cuts and slow US shale oil production increase form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak), and policy implementation rhythm (US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC + production adjustments will determine the volatility center). It is recommended to trade within a range (Brent: 80 - 100 dollars/barrel, SC crude: 600 - 800 yuan/barrel) and set stop - losses, avoiding overnight positions [4]. Stock Market - The market adjustment today was slightly weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively strong. The fact that it didn't decline when it should indicates strength. The adjustment in the early trading tomorrow is a good low - buying opportunity [6][7]. Gold - The daily - level red - green line of gold has turned to a volatile state. The daily amplitude of gold is small, maintaining in the range of 1140 - 1155. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [10]. Iron Ore - Australian and Brazilian shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, with a loose supply expectation. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the festival, but the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the commodity sentiment is high recently, and iron ore is running strongly. A bullish view can be maintained [12][13]. Glass - The daily melting change is small. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories are accumulating. The post - festival resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises needs to be concerned. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Technically, it rebounded today and should be treated as a wide - range volatile market [17][18]. Methanol - Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and a major methanol exporter, significantly affecting global methanol supply. Driven by Middle - East geopolitical emergencies, methanol has had continuous large fluctuations. With a significant reduction in supply, it has entered a destocking channel, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 13.07 tons this week [21]. Pulp - Most pulp and paper plants have resumed normal production schedules, with some undergoing maintenance. Domestic port inventories are continuously increasing and under pressure. The downstream paper mills' operating loads are expected to continue to increase. Due to low paper enterprises' gross profits, there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support pulp prices [24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company [6]. Core Insights - The core focus of the report is on the significant advantages in asset management, particularly in the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) business, which is driven by a stable team and systematic operations. The company is expected to see growth in its CTA scale, and in a high-volatility market environment, the performance elasticity from asset management, recovery in brokerage business, and expansion of innovative services are anticipated to drive profit release [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Corporate Governance - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder maintaining a consistent stake of 75.57% since 2022, which supports strategic continuity [17][18]. - The management team is stable, with many members having over 20 years of experience in the company, which enhances execution efficiency and strategic alignment [19][20]. 2. Financial Performance - The brokerage business provides a stable revenue base, while the asset management business is the fastest-growing segment, contributing significantly to profit elasticity. The company has shown a recovery in profitability since 2024, with a notable increase in net profit from 2.49 billion in 2020 to an expected 3.83 billion in 2024 [21][22]. 3. Asset Management Business - The company has established a strong position in the CTA market, with a focus on active management capabilities rather than just scale. The asset management team is well-organized, contributing to a significant increase in revenue, which is expected to continue growing [29][31]. - The asset management revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a 201.70% increase in 2024 and a further 223.83% in the first half of 2025 [31]. 4. Brokerage Business - The brokerage business is transitioning towards institutional and industrial clients while maintaining a strong retail base. The company has seen an increase in client deposits and a recovery in brokerage income, indicating a return to a growth cycle [36][39]. - The company has established a robust network of branches, which supports its brokerage business transformation and client service capabilities [45]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 18.8 billion, 22.9 billion, and 26.3 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 8.5 billion, and 10.8 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of +50.8%, +47.9%, and +26.0% [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on March 12, 2026, and the overall trend in March 2026 [2][3][4]. - The report also provides information on macro - news, commodity futures, and the performance of stock markets at home and abroad on March 11, 2026 [5][9][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference concluded on the morning of March 11, and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will hold a closing meeting on the afternoon of March 12 [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued "Six Dos and Six Don'ts" suggestions to prevent the security risks of the OpenClaw open - source intelligent agent. At least 20 securities firms have issued internal compliance reminders or relevant notices, and many domestic universities have warned against using it [5][6]. - The China Development Forum 2026 will be held in Beijing from March 22 to 23, with the theme of "China in the 15th Five - Year Plan: High - quality Development and Co - creating New Opportunities" [6]. - As of the end of January, the balance of inclusive small and micro - enterprise loans in China was 37.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, 5.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all loans. In January, the average interest rate of newly issued inclusive small and micro - enterprise loans was 3.67%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared with the annual average in 2025 [6]. - US President Trump said that the US military action against Iran was "about to end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received any internal instructions to stop the military action. The US Central Command warned of possible attacks on Iranian civilian ports, and the Iranian armed forces threatened to retaliate [6][7]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. The G7 energy ministers supported the use of strategic reserves to stabilize the energy market. The US will "slightly" cut its strategic oil reserves, and Japan will release about 80 million barrels, while Germany will release 2.4 million tons [7]. - G7 leaders discussed the Middle East situation and its economic impact. UK Prime Minister Starmer welcomed the IEA's decision, and French President Macron called for coordinated actions to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [7]. - Iranian President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran's commitment to regional peace in calls with Russian and Pakistani leaders and said the "only way" to end the war was to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, pay war compensation, and provide firm guarantees against future aggression [7]. - Iranian Ambassador to Cyprus said that Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei was injured in the US and Israeli air strikes on February 28, while Pezeshkian's son said he was "safe" [8]. - After the US Supreme Court rejected Trump's tariff plan, the Trump administration plans to announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday to pave the way for new tariffs on imported goods [8]. - The US government budget deficit in February 2026 was $308 billion. The budget deficit for the current fiscal year as of February exceeded $1 trillion, a decrease of about 12% compared with the same period in 2025 [8]. - The US February CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. The market believes that the February data did not reflect the impact of the soaring oil prices caused by the Iranian situation, and more data is needed to determine when the Fed will cut interest rates again [9]. - The average US gasoline price rose to $3.58 per gallon, the highest in more than 21 months. It rose 38 cents in the past week and 64 cents in the past month, the largest weekly and monthly increases since March 2022 [9]. - The energy price surge caused by the Iranian war is reshaping the European Central Bank's policy expectations. ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said that the rate - hike time "may be closer than many people think", and ECB Vice - President Guindos warned of the amplified impact on the economy [9]. 3.2 Commodity Futures Information - On March 11, international precious metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 1.11% to $5183.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 4.11% to $85.91 per ounce [9]. - On March 11, the US crude oil futures main contract rose 5.94% to $88.41 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 6.64% to $93.63 per barrel [10]. - On March 11, most London base metals fell. LME aluminum rose 1.50% to $3457.0 per ton, LME nickel rose 1.33% to $17720.0 per ton, while LME lead, copper, zinc, and tin fell [10]. - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next at 1.38 million barrels per day and 1.34 million barrels per day respectively, and said it was too early to judge the impact of the geopolitical situation on the global economy and oil demand [10]. - Fitch Ratings raised its short - term oil and gas price expectations. The 2026 Brent crude oil price expectation was raised from $63 per barrel to $70 per barrel, and WTI crude oil from $58 per barrel to $65 per barrel [11]. - An Iranian military spokesman warned that the world should "prepare for oil prices to reach $200 per barrel" [11]. - In February, global physical gold ETFs received an inflow of about $5.3 billion, achieving the ninth consecutive month of net inflows. The total gold ETF holdings reached a record high, increasing by 26 tons to 4171 tons, and the total asset management scale reached a record $701 billion [11]. - Qatar's largest liquefied natural gas export plant has not exported goods for five consecutive days, the longest suspension period since 2008. Shell, Total, and some Asian companies have declared force majeure to their customers [11]. - On March 11, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8700 at 16:30, up 18 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 6.8749 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 65 basis points to 6.8917, the highest since April 25, 2023 [11]. - On March 11, at the New York session close, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.26. Non - US currencies showed different trends. The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.57% to 158.9610, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.47% to 0.7152, etc. [12]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On March 11, the main contract IF2603 of CSI 300 stock index futures opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and closed at 4687.0 points, up 0.47%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 4706 and 4731 points and support at 4666 and 4659 points. In March 2026, the IF main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 4490 and 4408 points and resistance at 4800 and 4833 points [12][16][17]. - The main contract IH2603 of SSE 50 stock index futures opened slightly lower, rose after a decline, and closed at 2983.8 points, up 0.05%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 2993 and 3005 points and support at 2973 and 2964 points. In March 2026, the IH main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 2908 and 2881 points and resistance at 3100 and 3139 points [13][16][17]. - The main contract IC2603 of CSI 500 stock index futures opened slightly higher, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 8360.0 points, down 0.30%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 8450 and 8534 points and support at 8290 and 8219 points. In March 2026, the IC main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 7639 and 7382 points and resistance at 8728 and 8900 points [13][16][17]. - The main contract IM2603 of CSI 1000 stock index futures opened slightly lower, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 8313.0 points, up 0.06%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 8380 and 8429 points and support at 8274 and 8204 points. In March 2026, the IM main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 7711 and 7543 points and resistance at 8586 and 8700 points [14][16][17]. 3.3.2 Other Futures - Gold futures: On March 11, the main contract AU2604 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and closed at 1151.98 yuan per gram, up 0.73%. It is expected to have a weak shock on March 12, with support at 1140.0 and 1132.0 yuan per gram and resistance at 1153.7 and 1162.0 yuan per gram. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a wide - range shock, with resistance at 1210.3 and 1258.7 yuan per gram and support at 1119.2 and 1076.2 yuan per gram [34]. - Silver futures: On March 11, the main contract AG2606 opened slightly lower, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 22256 yuan per kilogram, up 0.41%. It is expected to have a weak shock on March 12, with support at 21547 and 21100 yuan per kilogram and resistance at 22160 and 22625 yuan per kilogram. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a wide - range shock, with resistance at 25141 and 26850 yuan per kilogram and support at 19609 and 17620 yuan per kilogram [40][41]. - Copper futures: On March 11, the main contract CU2604 opened slightly lower, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 101150 yuan per ton, up 0.00%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 102100 and 103000 yuan per ton and support at 100000 and 99600 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a weak shock, with support at 96600 and 95000 yuan per ton and resistance at 105800 and 114000 yuan per ton [44]. - Aluminum futures: On March 11, the main contract AL2604 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and closed at 25215 yuan per ton, up 2.06%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 25520 and 25670 yuan per ton and support at 25100 and 24950 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a strong shock, with resistance at 26190 and 27000 yuan per ton and support at 23020 and 22680 yuan per ton [49][50]. - Nickel futures: On March 11, the main contract NI2605 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and closed at 137160 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 140000 and 142100 yuan per ton and support at 135100 and 134100 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 130300 and 125000 yuan per ton and resistance at 141900 and 146600 yuan per ton [53]. - Tin futures: On March 11, the main contract SN2604 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 392740 yuan per ton, down 0.71%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 400000 and 407700 yuan per ton and support at 380000 and 375600 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a weak shock, with support at 378800 and 349300 yuan per ton and resistance at 470000 and 500000 yuan per ton [59]. - Lithium carbonate futures: On March 11, the main contract LC2605 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 155040 yuan per ton, down 5.14%. It is expected to have a weak shock on March 12, with support at 149000 and 142000 yuan per ton and resistance at 159500 and 164900 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a weak shock, with support at 139300 and 123900 yuan per ton and resistance at 189400 and 200000 yuan per ton [62]. - Rebar futures: On March 11, the main contract RB2605 opened slightly higher, rose after a decline, and closed at 3115 yuan per ton, up 0.29%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 3142 and 3161 yuan per ton and support at 3109 and 3102 yuan per ton. In March 2026, it is expected to have a wide - range shock, with resistance at 3177 and 3242 yuan per ton and support at 3006 and 2900 yuan per ton [68]. - Coking coal futures: On March 11, the main contract JM2605 opened flat, rose after a decline, and closed at 1144.5 yuan per ton, up 0.57%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 1170 and 1196 yuan per ton and support at 1136 and 1129 yuan per ton. In March 2026, it is expected to have a strong shock, with resistance at 1288 and 1385 yuan per ton and support at 1062 and 1022 yuan per ton [71]. - Glass futures: On March 11, the main contract FG605 opened slightly higher, rose after a decline, and closed at 1112 yuan per ton, up 2.87%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 1141 and 1150 yuan per ton and support at 1111 and 1095 yuan per ton. In March 2026, it is expected to have a strong and wide - range shock, with resistance at 1225 and 1284 yuan per ton and support at 1015 and 973 yuan per ton [78]. - Soda ash futures: On March 1

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.66%, Shanghai Silver closed down 2.51%, Platinum closed down 0.94%, and Palladium closed up 2.08%. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and volatile in the short - term, oscillate at a low level in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. - In the short - term, trade war risks have eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, and the US dollar index is strong [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In February, US inflation cooled steadily, and the market still pays attention to the impact of energy prices. US employment unexpectedly decreased in February, and the unemployment rate rose, challenging the Fed's view of a stable labor market. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are significant differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of raising interest rates is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing the end, and the next cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and have declined [1]. - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weak and volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Summary by Directory Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - International prices: Comex Gold active contract closed at $5183.90 per ounce, down $14.80 (-0.28%) from the previous day and up $32.30 (0.63%) from last week; London Gold closed at $5182.40 per ounce, down $27.30 (-0.52%) from the previous day and up $33.85 (0.66%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 1148.10 yuan per gram, down 3.88 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and down 3.90 yuan (-0.34%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1146.26 yuan per gram, down 4.04 yuan (-0.35%) from the previous day and down 2.30 yuan (-0.20%) from last week [2]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and ETF holdings are also provided [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - International prices: Comex Silver active contract closed at $85.91 per ounce, down $2.66 (-3.00%) from the previous day and up $2.15 (2.56%) from last week; London Silver closed at $86.23 per ounce, down $2.30 (-2.59%) from the previous day and down $0.55 (-0.64%) from last week [4]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 22062.00 yuan per kilogram, down 194.00 yuan (-0.87%) from the previous day and up 423.00 yuan (1.95%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21851.00 yuan per kilogram, down 148.00 yuan (-0.67%) from the previous day and up 783.00 yuan (3.72%) from last week [4]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and ETF holdings are also provided [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - International prices: NYMEX Platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up $12.90 (0.60%) from the previous day and up $156.50 (7.74%) from last week; London Platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down $7.00 (-0.33%) from the previous day and up $143.00 (7.17%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 28.05 yuan (5.36%) from the previous day and up 6.80 yuan (1.25%) from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 20.04 yuan (3.82%) from the previous day and up 1.10 yuan (0.20%) from last week [6]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, and CFTC management fund net positions are also provided [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - International prices: NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up $38.00 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $100.00 (5.85%) from last week; London Palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up $65.00 (3.71%) from the previous day and up $65.00 (3.91%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 21.65 yuan (5.19%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.07%) from last week [7]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, and CFTC management fund net positions are also provided [7]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points; Fed's total assets are $66794.27 billion, up $148.41 billion (0.00%) [8]. - Other economic data such as M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [8][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2026/3/18 to 2027/12/8 is presented in a table [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to fluctuate, with a daily increase of 0.42%, volume increased and positions decreased. Currently, rebar supply has returned to a high level, demand has improved seasonally, but the fundamentals have not improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support brought by strong raw materials. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.37%, volume increased and positions decreased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil has shrunk, demand has recovered seasonally, the supply - demand pattern has improved. Coupled with the cost support brought by strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil has risen. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the price trend of coils under the high - inventory situation should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated upwards, with a daily increase of 1.34%, volume and positions expanded. Currently, supported by the increase in transportation costs and the structural contradiction of varieties, the iron ore price has risen recently. However, under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market continue to be weakly stable, and the sustainability of the upward driving force is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The United States will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners, including China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan. The "301 investigation" has a strong unilateralist color [7]. - From January to February this year, the national railway completed fixed - asset investment of 72.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. Railway construction has been promoted efficiently, injecting new impetus into regional economic and social development [8]. - Ningxia carried out energy - saving supervision work on electrolytic aluminum, steel, cement and ferroalloy enterprises in 2026 to check the implementation of the stepped electricity price policy for these enterprises in 2025 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,190, 3,160 and 3,325 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,260, 3,190 and 3,293 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet is 2,970, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,200. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 70, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 990 [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 775, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) is 767, the ocean freight from Australia is 11.28, from Brazil is 27.54, the SGX swap (current month) is 104.10, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 105.10 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,120, with a daily increase of 0.42%, the highest price is 3,136, the lowest price is 3,112, the trading volume is 765,830, the volume difference is 231,668, the open interest is 1,676,246, and the position difference is - 46,176 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,275, with a daily increase of 0.37%, the highest price is 3,289, the lowest price is 3,270, the trading volume is 320,782, the volume difference is 42,406, the open interest is 1,243,723, and the position difference is - 21,377 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 795.5, with a daily increase of 1.34%, the highest price is 799.0, the lowest price is 787.0, the trading volume is 239,231, the volume difference is 46,499, the open interest is 480,735, and the position difference is 5,766 [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports nationwide, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder [14][22]. - There are also charts showing the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand continue to recover seasonally. The weekly output of rebar increased by 219,900 tons, and the demand also improved. However, the supply pressure is increasing, and the improvement of subsequent demand is questionable. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed. The supply has continued to shrink, and the demand has shown a good performance. However, the demand resilience is questionable. The price has risen, but the price trend should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - For iron ore, the demand is weak, and the supply continues to increase. Supported by transportation costs and structural contradictions, the price has risen recently, but the sustainability of the upward driving force is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo an oscillatory adjustment, and suggests paying attention to the support of MA60. The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for domestic ore procurement intensifies, and the domestic and foreign processing fees remain low. However, the sulfuric acid price strengthens, expanding the profits of domestic smelters, and the enthusiasm of smelters to resume work after the festival is expected to increase. The export window has closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is still in the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, while the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors are slowly recovering, lacking obvious increments. The automotive and other fields have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have declined, downstream purchases are still light, the domestic social inventory continues to increase, the LME zinc inventory decreases slightly, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position volume decreases and the price adjusts, with both long and short sides trading cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,315.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 176,142 lots, an increase of 1,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,277 lots, an increase of 1,883 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 134,921 tons, an increase of 8,869 tons; the LME inventory is 98,900 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 41.31 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.86 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global zinc ore production (monthly value) is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons. The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons. The social zinc inventory is 218,400 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons. The production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 58,769.96 million square meters, an increase of 5,313.26 million square meters; the housing completion area is 60,348.13 million square meters, an increase of 20,894.2 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 27.5%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 27.5%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 23.41%, a decrease of 2.89 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 20.33%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In February, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. In February, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 694,000 and 765,000 vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively, and new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of total new vehicle sales. The China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 22nd to 23rd, with the theme of "China in the 15th Five - Year Plan: High - quality Development and Co - creating New Opportunities". The US February CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. G7 leaders held a phone call to discuss the Middle East situation and its economic impact. The energy price surge caused by the Iran war is reshaping Europe [3].