摘要今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1114.72元/克，较前一交易日上涨8.74元，涨幅 0.79%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1110.87元/克，盘中最高触及1124.93元/克，最低下探至 1106.75元/克。 今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1114.72元/克，较前一交易日上涨8.74元，涨幅 0.79%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1110.87元/克，盘中最高触及1124.93元/克，最低下探至 1106.75元/克。 剧情并未止步于此。为了给高烧不退的市场降降温，全球最大的衍生品交易所——芝商所(CME)，在两 周内三次念起了"紧箍咒"：接连上调黄金和白银期货的保证金要求。这等于直接增加了投机者的"呼吸 成本"，通常会挤走一批玩家，导致市场暂时"缺氧"(流动性下降)，价格更容易坐上"过山车"。 然而，令人惊讶的一幕发生了：金价不仅没有因"缺氧"而萎靡，反而上演了一出漂亮的"韧性秀"，强势 反弹！这出人意料的表演，等于向市场宣告：在当前价位，有一股强大的"铁杆粉丝"(逢低买盘)在默默 守护。能够在交易所"紧箍咒"的考验下屹立不倒，本身就是黄金内在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing a downward trend due to weak supply and demand dynamics, macroeconomic expectations shifting, and pre-holiday demand contraction [2][11] Market Analysis - Price Movement: The main nickel futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a weak performance this week, opening at 138,000 CNY/ton and closing at 131,840 CNY/ton, marking a weekly decline of approximately 5.83%. The highest price during the week was 141,100 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 129,300 CNY/ton, with a volatility exceeding 8.4% [2][11] - Trading Volume: Trading volume initially increased but then decreased, with open interest dropping from 110,900 contracts at the beginning of the week to 85,500 contracts by Friday, indicating continued capital withdrawal [2][11] - Spot Market: The average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 139,300 CNY/ton, down 10,350 CNY/ton from the previous week. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 CNY/ton, up 2,200 CNY/ton from last week [2][11] Supply and Demand - Supply Side: Domestic refined nickel production increased month-on-month, with LME and SHFE inventories remaining high. The recovery of Indonesian nickel pig iron production exceeded expectations, raising concerns about oversupply [3][12] - Demand Side: Pre-holiday inventory accumulation is concluding, and both the stainless steel and new energy battery sectors are entering a seasonal lull, leading to stagnant downstream purchasing activities and weak spot market transactions [3][12] Cost and Profit - Production Costs: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel via integrated MHP is 114,117 CNY/ton with a profit margin of 25.00%. The cost for high-grade nickel is 127,279 CNY/ton with a profit margin of 12.10%. External sourcing of nickel sulfate results in a cost of 153,328 CNY/ton with a loss margin of 14.60% [4][12] - Inventory Levels: SHFE nickel inventory increased to 57,457 tons from 55,396 tons the previous week. LME nickel inventory decreased slightly to 285,282 tons from 286,284 tons. The total refined nickel inventory in China, including bonded zones, rose to 70,429 tons from 69,238 tons [4][12] Strategy - Given the current price volatility and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, a range-bound trading strategy is recommended. However, ongoing supply disruptions in nickel ore may provide some cost support, suggesting that buying on dips could be considered if prices decline significantly [5][13]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market experienced significant growth in January, with a total trading volume of 912,489,781 contracts and a trading value of 1,002,595.82 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 65.09% and 105.14% respectively [1][2][4] Group 1: Shanghai Futures Exchange - In January, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a trading volume of 307,665,935 contracts and a trading value of 519,593.83 billion yuan, accounting for 33.72% and 51.82% of the national market, with year-on-year growth of 102.4% and 278.92% respectively [3][4] - The total open interest at the end of January for the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11,676,698 contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.46% [3] Group 2: Shanghai International Energy Exchange - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange had a trading volume of 12,892,353 contracts and a trading value of 20,722.29 billion yuan, representing 1.41% and 2.07% of the national market, with year-on-year increases of 8.18% and a decrease of 20.31% respectively [4] - The total open interest at the end of January for the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 562,641 contracts, showing a month-on-month increase of 19.48% [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported a trading volume of 287,789,160 contracts and a trading value of 77,466.91 billion yuan, which accounted for 31.54% and 7.73% of the national market, with year-on-year growth of 53.56% and 14.73% respectively [4] - The total open interest at the end of January for the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 16,764,263 contracts, indicating a month-on-month increase of 18.64% [4] Group 4: Dalian Commodity Exchange - The Dalian Commodity Exchange had a trading volume of 234,351,202 contracts and a trading value of 87,609.98 billion yuan, representing 25.68% and 8.74% of the national market, with year-on-year increases of 43.61% and 35.32% respectively [2][4] - The total open interest at the end of January for the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 18,493,473 contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 17.56% [2] Group 5: China Financial Futures Exchange - The China Financial Futures Exchange recorded a trading volume of 30,053,053 contracts and a trading value of 263,523.65 billion yuan, accounting for 3.29% and 26.28% of the national market, with year-on-year growth of 31.3% and 42.02% respectively [2][4] - The total open interest at the end of January for the China Financial Futures Exchange was 2,591,615 contracts, showing a month-on-month increase of 19.38% [2] Group 6: Guangzhou Futures Exchange - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange reported a trading volume of 39,738,078 contracts and a trading value of 33,679.16 billion yuan, which accounted for 4.35% and 3.36% of the national market, with year-on-year increases of 159.76% and 332.19% respectively [5] - The total open interest at the end of January for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1,776,798 contracts, indicating a month-on-month decrease of 17.94% [5]

2月6日，碳酸锂期货价格呈现震荡下跌态势，主力合约LC2605报收132920元/吨，下跌2.78%。 随着价格持续下跌，下游通过期货点价买货的意愿也随之回暖，下游库存继续回升，现货成交较好。数 据显示，仅2月5日单天，样本贸易商合计成交7580吨，下游6860吨，贸易720吨，成交基差为LC2605- 1500元/吨，点价成交价多为当天的跌停价。 余烁认为，这主要受下游节前补库需求大幅释放等因素影响。往后看，今年1月智利锂盐发运大幅增 加，预计节后到达国内，对当前碳酸锂偏紧的供需格局有一定缓解，但2月份碳酸锂总体去库趋势不 改，基本面偏强运行。 展望后市，余烁认为，考虑到宏观情绪的不确定性，加上严监管的风向，大部分投资者或有较强的平仓 意向，在缺乏新的驱动因素前，预计碳酸锂价格短期或呈现震荡偏弱整理，建议投资者理性参与交易。 广发期货分析师林嘉旎提醒称，近期商品市场整体节奏对碳酸锂价格影响较大，短期来看，碳酸锂仍处 在较强的多空博弈态势中，节前单边方向性驱动不强，预计价格以区间震荡调整为主。 创元期货分析师余烁表示，碳酸锂价格回调主要受宏观情绪影响。近期部分贵金属及有色金属价格波动 较大，在整体市场情绪影响 ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 碳酸锂：供需格局偏紧，关注宏观情绪演绎 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 航 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | | | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | | 132,920 | 140 | -15,280 | -48,600 | -9,380 | 53,860 | | 2605合约（成交量） | | 586,706 | 54,982 | 34,038 | 243,901 | 166,299 | 469,245 | | 2605合约（持仓量） | | 328,575 | -1,202 | -44,026 | -110,153 | -177 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, there are numerous significant events in the global market. Domestically, China's January CPI, PPI, and credit data such as new loans and social financing are to be released, and the results of the Q4 2025 Hang Seng Index series review will be announced. Internationally, the delayed US January non - farm payrolls and inflation data are coming, and the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations. Many companies will disclose their latest financial reports [7]. - The A - share ETF market at the beginning of 2026 shows a "polarized" situation. Mainstream broad - based ETFs have suffered nearly 100 billion yuan in redemptions, while theme ETFs such as those in the chemical, non - ferrous metals, and power grid equipment sectors have attracted funds, indicating a strategic shift of funds from large - cap blue - chips to specific high - growth tracks [8]. - Since the beginning of 2026, southbound funds have continuously increased their investment in the Hong Kong stock market. As of February 8, southbound funds have had net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, with net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan in the last three trading days [8]. - The A - share market is currently adjusting around the 4100 - point mark, but active equity funds have shown strong performance resilience, with 135 funds hitting new highs in their reinvested unit net values since February [9]. - The prices of various futures products show different trends. For example, in the chemical sector, natural rubber and 20 - number rubber have risen, while asphalt and fuel oil have fallen; in the agricultural products sector, yellow soybean No.2 and soybean meal have risen, while palm oil and yellow corn have fallen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,134.50 | 1,138.50 | - 4.0 | - 0.351% | | Coke | 1,688.00 | 1,698.50 | - 10.50 | - 0.618% | | Natural Rubber | 16,205.00 | 16,080.00 | 125.0 | 0.777% | | 20 - number Rubber | 13,115.00 | 13,050.00 | 65.0 | 0.498% | | Plastic | 6,769.00 | 6,812.00 | - 43.0 | - 0.631% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,668.00 | 6,691.00 | - 23.0 | - 0.344% | | (PTA) | 5,188.00 | 5,166.00 | 22.0 | 0.426% | | PVC | 4,989.00 | 4,981.00 | 8.0 | 0.161% | | Asphalt | 3,354.00 | 3,386.00 | - 32.0 | - 0.945% | | Methanol | 2,240.00 | 2,244.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.178% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,739.00 | 3,743.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.107% | | Styrene | 7,609.00 | 7,625.00 | - 16.0 | - 0.210% | | Glass | 1,065.00 | 1,072.00 | - 7.0 | - 0.653% | | Crude Oil | 466.50 | 465.40 | 1.10 | 0.236% | | Fuel Oil | 2,804.00 | 2,831.00 | - 27.0 | - 0.954% | | Soda Ash | 1,178.00 | 1,190.00 | - 12.0 | - 1.008% | | Pulp | 5,220.00 | 5,234.00 | - 14.0 | - 0.267% | | LPG | 4,225.00 | 4,258.00 | - 33.0 | - 0.775% | | Caustic Soda | 1,923.00 | 1,862.00 | 61.0 | 3.276% | | ЬХ | 7,272.00 | 7,262.00 | 10.0 | 0.138% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,380.00 | 4,378.00 | 2.0 | 0.046% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,483.00 | 3,468.00 | 15.0 | 0.433% | | Soybean Meal | 2,742.00 | 2,735.00 | 7.0 | 0.256% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,240.00 | 2,239.00 | 1.0 | 0.045% | | Soybean Oil | 8,130.00 | 8,102.00 | 28.0 | 0.346% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,146.00 | 9,144.00 | 2.0 | 0.022% | | Palm Oil | 9,018.00 | 9,026.00 | - 8.0 | - 0.089% | | White Sugar | 5,228.00 | 5,228.00 | 0 | 0 | | Yellow Corn | 2,263.00 | 2,274.00 | - 11.0 | - 0.484% | | Corn Starch | 2,535.00 | 2,540.00 | - 5.0 | - 0.197% | | No.1 Cotton | 14,655.00 | 14,580.00 | 75.0 | 0.514% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,425.00 | 20,405.00 | 20.0 | 0.098% | [4] 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure is the core contradiction, but there are marginal changes. The price may continue to consolidate in the short term, with the upper resistance at 5250 - 5280 yuan and the lower support at 5200 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: On February 6, the price continued to be oscillating and strengthening. The supply - side sales progress is faster, and the demand - side support is limited. One can consider buying on dips near 2250 - 2260 yuan, with short - term resistance at 2280 - 2300 yuan [12]. - **Peanut**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side import reduction supports the price, and the demand - side situation is relatively balanced. It is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. One can wait and see or try to go long lightly near 8000 yuan [12]. - **Pig**: The current supply is abundant and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market is in a state of near - weak and far - strong [12]. - **Egg**: The current spot price is mainly stable, and the demand is the main factor. The futures market is oscillating, with near - strong and far - weak characteristics [13]. - **Jujube**: The price in the producing area is stable, and the sales area is in normal trading. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for support [13]. - **Cotton**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side has a long - term reduction expectation, but the short - term high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term, and one can consider going long on dips [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The overall fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: As the holiday approaches, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will be weak, and the prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - **Log**: On February 6, the price fell significantly. The pre - holiday demand decline pressure dominates, and it is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weak. The pulp price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The market is in a weak - balance state. The price is expected to maintain an interval shock in the short term, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range [14]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is mainly stable. The supply has recovered to a high level, and the demand shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of Indian tenders on market sentiment [14][16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Recently, the market sentiment has cooled down, and copper and aluminum prices have adjusted at high levels, waiting to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina remain in an oversupply pattern, waiting for new market drivers [19]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals of ferrous alloys are relatively healthy. The short - term trend maintains a callback - biased - long thinking, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment [21]. 3.3.5 Lithium Carbonate - On February 6, the price was volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in February, and the demand provides short - term support, but the expected import increase in March suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [21]. 3.3.6 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 6, the three major A - share indexes pulled back. Different index futures and options have different performance characteristics. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility before the Spring Festival [21][22]. - **Stock Index**: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly oscillating. One can consider buying a straddle strategy. After the festival, the probability of an upward trend is high, and short - term trading should follow the thinking of a wide - range shock market [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon industry is experiencing inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the commodity sentiment this week. The cost - guiding price of the polysilicon industry has been determined. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605: The closing price is 8,500 yuan/ton, with a change of - 105 yuan compared to T - 1, - 350 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 480 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 335,419 lots, with a change of 19,855 lots compared to T - 1, - 222,197 lots compared to T - 5, and - 141,967 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 277,011 lots, with an increase of 10,029 lots compared to T - 1, 40,384 lots compared to T - 5, and 32,277 lots compared to T - 22. [2] - PS2605: The closing price is 49,285 yuan/ton, with a change of - 265 yuan compared to T - 1 and 2,145 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 10,683 lots, with a change of - 800 lots compared to T - 1 and - 8,854 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 37,934 lots, with a change of - 870 lots compared to T - 1 and - 4,579 lots compared to T - 5. [2] - Spreads and costs: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract of industrial silicon is - 30 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short inter - period arbitrage is 50.0 yuan/ton. The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract of polysilicon is 560.0 yuan/ton. [2] 3.1.2 Basis and Price - Industrial silicon spot premium: The premium for East China Si5530 is + 850 yuan/ton, for East China Si4210 is + 350 yuan/ton, and for Xinjiang 99 - silicon is + 200 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot premium for N - type re - investment material is + 4465 yuan/ton. [2] - Spot prices: Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - investment material is 53600 yuan/ton. [2] 3.1.3 Profit - Silicon plant profit: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is - 2631.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is - 5824 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.1 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, 2.7 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 1.6 yuan compared to T - 22. [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) is 56.2 million tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.6 million tons, and the industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) is 76.8 million tons. The futures warehouse - receipt inventory is 8.4 million tons. [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 34.1 million tons. [2] 3.1.5 Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 230 yuan/ton. [2] - Washed coking coal: The price in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 1200 yuan/ton. [2] - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke is 1400 yuan/ton, and that of Yangtze coke is 1740 yuan/ton. [2] - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes is 12450 yuan/ton, and that of carbon electrodes is 7200 yuan/ton. [2] 3.1.6 Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - Prices: The price of silicon powder (99 - silicon) is 9850 yuan/ton, silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) are 1.5 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) are 0.44 yuan/watt, components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) are 0.738 yuan/watt, photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, and photovoltaic - grade EVA is 9000 yuan/ton. [2] - Profits: The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.1 yuan/kg. [2] 3.1.7 Organic Silicon - Price: The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton. [2] - Profit: The profit of DMC enterprises is 1951 yuan/ton. [2] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy - Price: The price of ADC12 is 23550 yuan/ton. [2] - Profit: The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 410 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 6, the Power Industry Planning Research and Detection Early - Warning Center announced the new - energy grid - connection and consumption situation in each provincial region in 2025. The wind - power utilization rate is 94.3%, and the photovoltaic - power utilization rate is 94.8%. The photovoltaic - power utilization rates in Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet are lower than 90%. [2] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0. The trend - strength value ranges from - 2 to 2 (integers), with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators like GDP growth slowing down while others such as CPI turning positive. The commodity market has different trends, with gold rising and silver experiencing significant price fluctuations. The financial market has various developments including bond market changes and currency exchange rate movements. The stock market shows a shift in capital flow from mainstream wide - based ETFs to specific high - growth theme ETFs [1][2][36]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1]. - In December 2025, social financing scale was 22075 billion yuan, lower than 35299 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends, with M0 growth slowing down, M1 growth dropping significantly, and M2 growth slightly increasing [1]. - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, turning positive from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, slightly improving from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The State Council executive meeting studied policies to promote effective investment, aiming to use various funds and tools to promote major projects in key areas [2]. - In January 2026, the futures market had a good start, with total funds increasing by over 400 billion yuan to 2.57 trillion yuan, and customer equity increasing by about 19% compared to the end of 2025. The number of futures customers also continued to grow [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin ratio and price limit of some contracts [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On February 9, spot gold rose 1% to return to the $5000 mark, and spot silver rose nearly 3%. From February 2 to 6, the on - site price of Guotou Silver LOF dropped 40.94% in a single week [4][5]. - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months. In January 2026, global gold ETFs attracted a record $18.7 billion in capital inflows [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late January, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.935 million tons, down 2.22% month - on - month and 8.25% year - on - year [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Indian refiners are avoiding purchasing Russian oil for April delivery. The IEA predicts that by 2030, the combined share of renewable energy and nuclear power in the global power structure will rise to 50% [10]. - The EU proposed the 20th round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade. The US Energy Secretary will visit Venezuela to understand local oil and gas production [10][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The national standard for pre - made food safety is open for public comment, with restrictions on preservatives and shelf - life. The agricultural department will strengthen the regulation of pig production capacity [13]. - APK reduced Ukraine's corn and rapeseed export forecasts. Brazilian soybean sales reached 33.9% of the expected output, lower than 42.4% in the same period last year [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 6, the central bank conducted 31.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 146 billion yuan. This week, there will be 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase due [16]. 3.3.2 Important News - This week, important domestic and international events include the release of economic data, corporate earnings reports, and international negotiations. The State Council studied policies to promote effective investment, and the central government emphasized the front - loading of macro - policies [17]. - Eight departments jointly issued a document to ban virtual currency - related business activities. The CSRC issued a regulatory guide for the overseas issuance of asset - backed securities tokens [18]. - The Ministry of Commerce will build a policy system to cultivate new service consumption growth points. China's foreign exchange and gold reserves increased, and the Asian and global manufacturing PMIs showed different trends [19][21]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - In the inter - bank bond market, bond yields generally declined, and bond futures rose. In the exchange bond market, some bonds had significant price changes. The convertible bond index rose, and the currency market interest rates had different trends [26][27][28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 7 points at the 16:30 close, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was adjusted down 20 points. The US dollar index fell 0.36% [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - income believes that the convertible bond market style is solidified, and the supply - demand contradiction is intensified. CITIC Securities expects the market to return to the main lines of domestic policy and economic repair and overseas Fed rate - cut expectations in February [32][33]. - CICC believes that the Fed is unlikely to "shrink the balance sheet" in the short term, and the final rate - cut amplitude may exceed market expectations. CICC Fixed - income believes that the default risk of short - duration urban investment bonds is still low [33][34]. 3.4 Stock Market News - In 2026, the A - share ETF market showed a trend of capital flowing from mainstream wide - based ETFs to theme ETFs. Southbound funds have continuously increased their investment in the Hong Kong stock market, and the Hong Kong IPO market has maintained its popularity [36]. 3.5 Today's Reminder - On February 9, 248 bonds are listed, 118 bonds are issued, 147 bonds are due for payment, and 309 bonds are due for principal and interest repayment [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：呈现出外强内弱、震荡偏弱格局。目前国内大豆供应宽松，巴西大豆创纪录丰产且正处于收获 上市高峰期，2 月对华出口预计超千万吨，叠加国内油厂大豆和豆粕库存均处于历史同期高位，供应压力 持续。需求端因春节前备货基本结束、下游养殖业普遍亏损而表现疲软，饲料企业物理库存不降反升，现 货成交清淡。虽然国内豆类跟随外盘小幅反弹，但受到国内高库存与弱需求的双重压制整体上行乏力。短 期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 焦煤维持低位区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 供需暂稳，焦炭震荡整理 | 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦 ...