Core Viewpoint - The "New Year Economy" is gaining momentum across China, driven by strong consumer demand and a focus on quality upgrades in products and services [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Various markets across China are experiencing high consumer traffic and transaction volumes, such as over 1.2 million tons of daily transactions in Changsha and significant growth in Fuzhou's fruit market [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is promoting local specialties and quality agricultural products through initiatives like brand directories and live-streaming sales [1] Group 2: Quality Upgrade - Consumers are increasingly seeking high-quality products for the New Year, indicating a shift from merely having goods to desiring premium offerings [1] - Local producers are encouraged to enhance the quality of agricultural products and crafts, tapping into regional resources to meet consumer demands [1] Group 3: Scene Innovation - Innovative consumer experiences are being developed, such as transforming traditional markets into clean, spacious venues and integrating cultural performances with dining experiences [1] - The focus is on creating immersive shopping experiences that combine local culture and modern retail, enhancing consumer engagement [1] Group 4: Long-term Empowerment - The strong performance of the "New Year Economy" is seen as a foundation for sustained economic growth throughout the year, emphasizing the role of consumption as a key driver [1] - Initiatives like issuing consumption vouchers and creating food tourism routes are being implemented to stimulate long-term consumer activity [1] - Establishing mechanisms to connect holiday shopping with everyday consumption is crucial for maintaining momentum in the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Apple - The trading atmosphere in the national apple market has warmed up, with increased market activity. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption. Other fruits, such as citrus, have price advantages and squeeze the apple market. The inventory of ordinary apples is under pressure. Due to low inventory and a low rate of high - quality apples, the futures market has been oscillating upwards recently, and the delivery profit has been repaired. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress [1][5]. Red Dates - Affected by the warming sentiment in the commodity market, the futures market has rebounded and the basis has converged. The purchase in the production areas is basically over, and processing enterprises are actively arranging production and accelerating the shipment rhythm. New and old stocks are being supplied to the market. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing as needed, and the number of buyers inspecting goods has increased, but there has been no significant improvement in transactions. The process of generating new - season warehouse receipts has accelerated. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the rebound of red date futures is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual de - stocking progress [8]. Sugar - Internationally, the market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane crushing season starting in April. Since December, rainfall in most major producing areas in the central - southern region has exceeded the average, which is beneficial for the growth of sugar - cane in the 26/27 season and has improved the production outlook. The market initially expects the sugar - cane yield per unit area to increase by about 3% year - on - year. In India, production is strong, with cumulative sugar production reaching 11.83 million tons as of the end of December, a 24% year - on - year increase. However, due to the lack of price competitiveness, the current export progress is slow. In Thailand, the sugar - cane crushing season is progressing slowly. Domestically, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, generally in line with market expectations. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises still have a certain scale of procurement demand, which can support prices. However, considering the current situation of increased production, market participants are generally cautious. It is expected that sugar prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend [9]. Cotton - The drought index in the US cotton - producing areas continues to rise, in line with the expectations of a weak La Nina winter. However, the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, and the positive factors in the industrial fundamentals have been fully priced in. The widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices will gradually allow imported cotton to enter the market with a 40% tariff, and the unfavorable factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing. Overall, the upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the support level around the 14,100 - 14,300 moving average [11]. Oils and Fats - After the release of the USDA monthly report at the beginning of the week, the uncertainty makes it unlikely for funds to continue to go long on CBOT soybeans. Moreover, as Brazilian soybeans are about to be on the market, even if CBOT soybeans rise, they will likely correct later. The market is waiting for guidance from the USDA report. If the report causes CBOT soybeans to rise, the March contract of CBOT soybeans will test the resistance at 50 cents. Malaysian palm oil futures have been oscillating upwards, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report next Monday. The international oil market has been boosted by the more than 3% increase in the US crude oil futures price and the follow - up rise of US soybeans, which is beneficial for the domestic vegetable oil market. The negative impact of the news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has been basically digested, and short - selling funds have taken profits and left the market. The rapeseed oil futures have rebounded above 9,000 yuan. Before the release of key information such as the US agricultural supply - demand report, Malaysian palm oil inventory data, and possible policy changes after the China - Canada meeting, the futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern. In the spot market, the wait - and - see sentiment is still strong, and downstream buyers are replenishing stocks in small quantities as needed. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis quotation continues to be high [12]. Eggs - On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profitability, leading to a decrease in farmers' enthusiasm for culling laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly compared with the previous period. However, due to the influence of weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small and medium - sized eggs compared with large - sized eggs. The market shows a structural differentiation. Considering factors such as increased production capacity and reduced culling, the current market supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and their procurement volume is continuously increasing. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the festival stocking plans of all links in the terminal consumer market have been gradually launched, and the willingness to purchase at low prices has increased. However, there has been no significant change in the procurement intensity of household consumption. The current increase in demand is mainly reflected in the inventory turnover of the trading link. In the coming week, pre - Spring Festival stocking will still be the core driving force for market demand growth. After the recent price increase, the market has short - term digestion pressure and may experience a slight decline. However, the positive support factors in the market are clear, and it is expected that after a short - term adjustment, there may still be a slight increase. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around the previous high of 3,100 [13]. Corn - On the supply side, in the Northeast region, the price is strongly supported by the price - holding attitude of grass - roots farmers and the rigid - demand stocking of some downstream enterprises. In the North China region, the supply can meet the needs of enterprises, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced, with prices oscillating within a narrow range. If the supply increases before the Spring Festival, prices may weaken. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises still have the intention to replenish stocks, but their profits are slightly in the red, and they are less willing to accept high - priced corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. On the policy side, the targeted auction of imported corn continues, and although there is a premium, it has cooled down. The policy - based corn supply is currently limited, and attention should be paid to its subsequent intensity. In general, the strong price - holding sentiment and the rigid - demand stocking intention of downstream enterprises support the corn price. However, the profit losses of downstream enterprises limit their acceptance of high prices, and the continuous policy - based supply suppresses the upward momentum of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 2,270, as well as changes in farmers' selling attitudes and policy - based supply [16]. Live Pigs - The spot price has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. The supply in the north has decreased, while the demand in the south has dropped significantly, and purchasing power is weak, suppressing the spot price. Recently, there has been some restocking for secondary fattening in some areas, but due to the relatively high current pig price, the overall enthusiasm is limited. However, the average weight of the存栏 has been increasing, and the subsequent market supply is expected to increase. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that pigs will be slaughtered gradually in mid - to - late January. Coupled with the expected increase in supply from large - scale farms, the overall supply in January will be relatively loose, and there is limited room for further upward movement in the futures market. It is recommended to short at high prices [18][19]. Meal - The US soybeans are strongly influenced by funds and sentiment. The market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report on Monday, which may provide new trading guidance. In China, the speed of soybean purchases is relatively fast, and the supply will be continuously supplemented by US soybeans and reserve auctions. The visit of Canada to China has brought positive signals, and there is an expectation of improved China - Canada relations, which has led to a significant decline in domestic rapeseed prices and dragged down the soybean meal market. The domestic spot market remains in a loose pattern, with high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal. There are also many expectations of auctions recently, which also put pressure on the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, the arrival rhythm is uncertain. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy factors. In the short term, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the futures market will maintain a range - bound oscillation [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main contract) increased by 158 yuan/ton to 9,689 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.66%. The price of the apple 2610 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton to 8,472 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.25%. The futures open interest increased by 23,520 lots to 156,793 lots, a rise of 17.65% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets has increased, with the arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market increasing by 40%, Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market by 37.5%, and Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market by 33.33%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 126,600 tons to 7.209 million tons, a decline of 1.73% [1]. - **Profit**: The factory - warehouse delivery profit increased by 121 yuan/ton to 457 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.01% [1]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The price of the red date 2605 (main contract) increased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.83%. The open interest increased by 4,234 lots to 154,819 lots, a rise of 2.81% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's extra - grade red dates increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. The basis of extra - grade red dates in Cangzhou relative to the main contract increased by 205 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a rise of 87.80% [8]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 5,288 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.17%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 3,135 lots to 432,813 lots, a rise of 0.73% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,370 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.89% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 317,900 tons to 1.05 million tons, a decline of 23.24%. The cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 259,000 tons to 350,000 tons, a decline of 42.53% [9]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 14,675 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 13,905 lots to 848,986 lots, a decline of 1.61% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton of grade 3128B decreased by 67 yuan/ton to 15,671 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 1.1011 million tons to 5.784 million tons, a rise of 23.5%. The export of textile yarns, fabrics, and related products increased by 10.09 percentage points year - on - year to 0.98% [11]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.35%. The basis of the Y2605 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 526 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.66% [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,680 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%. The basis of the P2605 contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 125% [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.03%. The basis of the OI2605 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 758 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.88% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 03 contract increased by 31 yuan/500KG to 3,040 yuan/500KG, a rise of 1.03%. The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 39 yuan/500KG to 3,316 yuan/500KG, a rise of 1.19% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the production areas remained unchanged at 3.25 yuan/jin. The price of egg - laying chicken chicks increased by 0.10 yuan/feather to 2.90 yuan/feather, a rise of 3.57% [13]. Corn - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2603 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 2,263 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 21,598 lots to 1,969,700 lots, a rise of 1.11% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,330 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.43%. The basis increased by 13 yuan/ton to 67 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.07% [16]. Live Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig 2605 contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1,120 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.08%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2,847 lots to 168,424 lots, a decline of 1.66% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses increased by 903 to 226,460, a rise of 0.40%. The price of piglets increased by 1.0 yuan/head to 16.50 yuan/head, a rise of 6.45% [19]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,150 yuan/ton. The price of the M2605 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.14%. The basis decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 364 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.09% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,420 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%. The price of the RM2605 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,338 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. The basis remained unchanged at 82 yuan/ton [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and investment suggestions for each category [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have increased short - term upward pressure on oil prices, but inventory pressure and supply surplus limit the upside [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led to wide - range fluctuations in fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side pressure [22] - **Bitumen**: Oil price rebounds have not been fully followed by bitumen. Venezuelan oil supply disruptions may impact bitumen raw materials in the future [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With mixed US employment data and ongoing global geopolitical unrest, precious metals are challenging previous highs [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are affected by US employment data, geopolitical situations, and domestic production and inventory. An option strategy has been proposed [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are driven by funds, and there is a divergence from fundamentals. High profits may prompt aluminum plants to sell for hedging [5] - **Zinc**: Consumption is expected to be front - loaded in 2026, but the market may range - bound due to cost support and supply - side factors [8] - **Lead**: The market is range - bound, and attention should be paid to cost - related support [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of shock, with inventory changes and policy sentiment influencing prices [10] - **Tin**: LME tin prices have risen, and domestic prices are supported. Attention is on inventory changes [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, with supply - demand factors driving the market [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [13] - **Polysilicon**: A new policy has changed the trading logic, and prices may seek cost support [14] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are oscillating, with demand and inventory showing different trends. Steel mill profits are improving, and iron - water production is rising [15] - **Iron Ore**: The market has rebounded, but there are risks of high - level volatility due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a relatively strong and oscillating trend, with considerations for supply - demand and policy factors [17][18] - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: For both, it is recommended to buy on dips, considering supply - demand and policy impacts [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range as spring agricultural demand approaches [24] - **Methanol**: Import expectations are reduced, but high coastal inventories and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and a positive spread strategy may be considered in the medium - term [26] - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of consolidation due to cost and inventory factors [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Market sentiment varies, with supply - demand factors influencing prices [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may have short - term trading opportunities and long - term price increases. Caustic soda is oscillating, with supply - demand and profit factors at play [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, but cost support from oil prices exists. PX has a strong medium - term outlook [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market will be under pressure in the short - term and may improve in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is waiting for the USDA report. South American production expectations and weather are key factors, and prices may be weak [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The market is expected to oscillate, with attention on palm oil export tax policies and inventory [37] - **Canola & Canola Oil**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the focus on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: The futures contract is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with attention on sales progress and auctions [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Short - term price support may come from secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure exists [41] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The market is expected to adjust, with attention on supply - demand and policy factors [43] - **Sugar**: The market is oscillating, with differences in international and domestic production progress [44] - **Apples**: The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: The price is at a low level, and the market is recommended to be observed [46] - **Pulp**: The market is oscillating, and short - term upward potential is limited [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: A new policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles potentially outperforming [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the flattening of the yield curve [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats Sector**: The international crude oil price has bottomed out and rebounded, reigniting enthusiasm for the bio - diesel concept, and domestic commodity market heat has led to capital inflows into the vegetable oil sector. Different oils have different fundamentals. Soybean oil continues to rebound, palm oil attracts hot money due to crude oil rise despite poor fundamentals, and rapeseed oil's decline is limited by low inventory [5]. - **Protein Sector**: China's purchase of US soybeans stabilizes the US soybean price, while domestic policies and South American production expectations limit the upside of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is under pressure due to the expected return of Canadian rapeseed. Double - meal products will continue the medium - term震荡行情 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats and Protein Logic - **Oils and Fats**: International crude oil rebounds, and domestic policies and fundamentals lead to different trends in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. For example, soybean oil rebounds, palm oil attracts capital, and rapeseed oil's decline is restricted [5]. - **Protein**: China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic policies, and South American production expectations jointly affect the double - meal market, resulting in a medium - term震荡行情 [6]. 3.2 Operation Strategies for Three Oils and Two Meals - **Single - side Operation**: For vegetable oils, adopt a bullish approach, buy soybean oil and palm oil on dips. The rise of crude oil determines the upside of vegetable oils, with rapeseed oil being the weakest. For double - meal products, maintain a medium - term震荡 pattern. Specific contract support and resistance levels are provided [7]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategies are available currently [7][8] 3.3 Important Information - Fed interest rate cut probabilities: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 4.6% [9]. - Canadian rapeseed production: The Canadian rapeseed production is 21.8 million tons, higher than market expectations [9]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high, with production of 1.76 million tons, exports of 1.25 million tons, imports of 36,000 tons, and inventory of 2.97 million tons [9]. - China - Canada trade: China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [9]. 3.4 S&P's Adjustment of US Soybean Planting Area - In 2026, the US soybean planting area will increase by 4% to 84.5 million acres, while the corn planting area will decrease by 3.8% to 95 million acres [10]. 3.5 South American and US Gulf Import Premiums - As of January 9, the South American soybean import premium is 164 cents per bushel, and the US Gulf premium has risen significantly to 220 cents per bushel. Even after tariff cuts, the cost of importing US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans [13]. 3.6 Brazilian New Soybean Sowing and Growth - As of December 20, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean is 97.6%. The expected production is 177.124 million tons, with a planting area of 48.935 million hectares and a yield of 3,620 kg per hectare [16]. 3.7 Domestic Soybean Ship - Buying - As of January 6, different monthly ship - buying progress and quantities vary. For example, the 1 - month ship - buying progress is 100% with 4.578 million tons, and the 2 - month ship - buying progress is 87.68% with 8.33 million tons [18]. 3.8 Cofco's Old Soybean Auction - From December 11 to 19, several auctions of imported soybeans were held, with different transaction volumes, prices, and rates. There are also rumors that subsequent auctions will be converted into directional sales [22]. 3.9 Domestic Bean Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory is 6.876 million tons, the soybean meal inventory is 1.135 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory is 1.286 million tons [23]. 3.10 Oil Mill Startup Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the first week (January 3), the average startup rate of domestic major soybean oil mills is 52.25%, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous week. The current pressing volume is 1.915 million tons, and the expected volume next week is 2.2259 million tons [30]. 3.11 Weekly Transaction of Oils and Meals - This week, the average transaction price of soybean oil is 8,413.42 yuan per ton, with a transaction volume of 114,300 tons. The average transaction price of soybean meal is 3,182.58 yuan per ton, with a transaction volume of 1.53 million tons [34]. 3.12 Oils and Meals Basis - As of January 9, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 496 yuan per ton, and the basis of soybean meal's main contract is 364 yuan per ton [38]. 3.13 Malaysian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production is 1.93551 million tons, exports are 1.212814 million tons, inventory is 2.835439 million tons, and imports are 23,176 tons [42]. 3.14 Indonesian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In September, Indonesia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.97% to 2.59 million tons, exports decreased by 36.5% to 2.2 million tons, and production decreased by 22.3% to 4.3 million tons [45]. 3.15 Palm Oil Import and Profit - As of January 9, the palm oil import profit is 168.17 yuan per ton. The import volume in November is 390,000 tons, in December is 345,000 tons, and in January is 250,000 tons. The domestic palm oil inventory is 663,000 tons [49]. 3.16 Palm Oil Transaction, Basis, and Inventory - As of January 9, the basis of palm oil in Guangdong is - 2 yuan per ton. This week, the average transaction price is 8,694 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 4,300 tons [55]. 3.17 Rapeseed Import Cost and Profit - As of January 9, the FOB price of Canadian rapeseed in Guangzhou Port in February is 511 Canadian dollars per ton, and the import cost is 4,327 yuan per ton. The import profit is between 1,135.39 and 1,341.70 yuan per ton, but the import volume has decreased significantly [60]. 3.18 Rapeseed Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory is 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory is 323,000 tons [64]. 3.19 Oil Mill Startup and Pressing of Rapeseed - As of the end of the first week (January 3), the startup rate of domestic major rapeseed oil mills is 0%, and the pressing volume is 0 tons. The expected volume next week is also 0 tons [67]. 3.20 Rapeseed Transaction and Basis - This week, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal is 2,484 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 0 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed oil is 10,200 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 0 tons [72]. 3.21 CFTC Fund Dynamics - As of January 6, the non - commercial net long positions of CFTC soybeans are 104,770 lots, a decrease of 17,041 lots; the non - commercial net long positions of soybean meal are 14,212 lots, a decrease of 11,977 lots; the non - commercial net long positions of soybean oil are - 12,458 lots, a decrease of 10,084 lots [75].

Group 1 - The "Warm Winter New Year Goods Festival" has officially opened, promoting consumption and charitable support [3][5][6] - The event is organized by Southern Rural News and the Guangdong Regional Collaborative Consumption Support Product Trading Center [6][7] - The festival features a vibrant market atmosphere with various products available for purchase, aimed at fostering community support and economic revitalization [4][5] Group 2 - The annual dividend distribution in Liede Village, Guangzhou, took place on January 8, with villagers queuing to receive their shares [10][11] - The distribution includes dividends from the 2025 fiscal year, with shareholders able to collect their payments at designated banks [12][15] - This event highlights the economic engagement and community participation in local cooperative ventures [11][12] Group 3 - The Guangdong Provincial Fisheries Mutual Insurance Association held its seventh member representative conference on January 10, focusing on marine development and rural revitalization [31][32][33] - The conference aims to strengthen the mutual insurance framework within the fishing industry to support the construction of a "new Guangdong at sea" [33][35] Group 4 - The Huizhou Mei Cai Industry Technology Innovation and Brand Promotion Conference was held on January 10, showcasing the historical significance and future development of the Mei Cai industry [36][37][39] - The event emphasizes the integration of technology and cultural heritage to enhance the quality and marketability of local agricultural products [38][39] Group 5 - The "Zhongshan Xiangnong" products will be featured in a live broadcast by Dongfang Selection on January 12-13, promoting local goods and culture [41][42][43] - This initiative aims to leverage digital platforms to expand market reach and enhance brand visibility for regional products [42][43] Group 6 - Preparations for the Spring Festival flower markets across Guangdong are in full swing, with various cities planning events and activities to celebrate the New Year [50][51][52] - The flower markets will include traditional displays and interactive experiences, contributing to the festive atmosphere in the region [51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spring market of stock index futures is established, and the market is expected to continue rising, with the CSI 500 index potentially being the dominant variety among the four major indices [20][22]. - The sentiment in the bond market of treasury bond futures may ease, and there may be short - term trading opportunities in the medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - For agricultural products, the overall supply of protein meals is sufficient and the market is under pressure; the international sugar price fluctuates and declines while the domestic sugar price fluctuates slightly; the situation of the oil and fat sector depends on the MPOB report; other agricultural products also have their own market characteristics and trends [26][28][31]. - In the ferrous metal sector, steel prices continue to fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices are driven by funds and sentiment, iron ore prices are treated bearishly at high levels, and ferroalloy prices fluctuate strongly due to cost factors [60][62][65][69]. - For non - ferrous metals, precious metals such as gold and silver rise strongly due to geopolitical risks and non - farm data; other non - ferrous metals also have their own market dynamics and trends affected by various factors [72][73][75][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East; other energy and chemical products also show different market trends affected by supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [121][123][127][133]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen continuously, and the market has accelerated its rise in 2026. Economic data indicates an economic recovery, and the narrowing of the basis of stock index futures reflects investors' confidence. The market is expected to continue rising, and the CSI 500 index may be the dominant variety [20][21][22]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on IC and IM on dips; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2606 and short ETF; use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Logic Analysis: Although the overall repair trend of CPI and PPI continues, there are still structural problems. The bond market has been weak recently, but there may be short - term trading opportunities in medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meals - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the cost pressure of soybeans is obvious, and the export prospects are not optimistic. Domestically, the subsequent supply of soybeans may decline, and the spot may be supported. The overall trend of meal products is expected to be volatile [27]. - Strategy Suggestion: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading; wait and see for arbitrage; use a short straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the sugar price may be affected by the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the high processing cost and the bottom - building trend of the external market provide support, but there is also sales pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. For the domestic sugar price, consider going long at the lower end of the range and shorting at the upper end; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [30][31]. Oil and Fat Sector - Logic Analysis: Recently, the oil and fat market has been affected by various factors and fluctuates. The inventory of the three major domestic oils is gradually decreasing, and the palm oil in Malaysia is expected to reduce production and inventory. The market situation is still uncertain [35]. - Trading Strategy: The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term with increased volatility; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Logic Analysis: The steel market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, demand, and raw material prices. The overall trend is to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - news and policy changes [61]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread; wait and see for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Logic Analysis: The recent rise in coking coal prices is mainly driven by funds and sentiment. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [64]. - Strategy Suggestion: Trade in a wide - range shock on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage and options [65]. Iron Ore - Logic Analysis: The price of iron ore is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and funds. The supply is loose, and the domestic demand is expected to decline in the medium term. The price is treated bearishly at high levels [66][68]. - Strategy Suggestion: Go short lightly at high levels; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Ferroalloys - Logic Analysis: For ferrosilicon, the supply may shrink in the future, and the demand and cost are expected to increase. For ferromanganese - silicon, the supply is stable, and the demand and cost also support the price. The overall price fluctuates strongly [70][71]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to the improvement of supply - demand and cost factors; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [71]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Logic Analysis: The non - farm data is mixed, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify the safe - haven sentiment. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain strong in the short term [73]. - Trading Strategy: Enter the market on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [75]. Platinum and Palladium - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment is generally tight, and the result of the 232 investigation is the focus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium. The market is waiting for the official news of the investigation [75][76]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on platinum on dips; be cautious when going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. Copper - Logic Analysis: The government's QE policy may lead to more actual monetary easing. In the short term, the domestic consumption is stagnant, but the LME inventory is decreasing. In the long term, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the consumption is growing. The price fluctuates strongly in the short term but maintains an upward trend [79]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive the oil price to rebound. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [122][123]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and trade in a wide - range shock; the domestic gasoline is strong, and the diesel is weak, and the oil futures spread is strong; wait and see for options [123]. Asphalt - Logic Analysis: The cost provides support, but the supply - demand is weak. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [124][125]. - Trading Strategy: The situation is not provided in the report. Fuel Oil - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and the price fluctuates strongly. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the first quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a short - term upward trend [127][129]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock with caution; pay attention to the FU59 positive spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see for options [129]. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: The international LNG price fluctuates at a low level. In the short term, the price is supported by cold weather, but in the long term, the supply is excessive. The HH price in the US is affected by weather and demand [130][131][132]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of TTF and JKM in the third quarter; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [132]. LPG - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical situation leads to a short - term premium, but the fundamental supply - demand does not support continuous price increases. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term [133][135]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and be bearish on the far - month contracts in the medium - and long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [135]. PX & PTA - Logic Analysis: The downstream polyester production cuts increase, but the geopolitical disturbances strengthen the cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [135][136]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; conduct positive spread arbitrage of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [137]. BZ & EB - Logic Analysis: The inventory of pure benzene continues to increase, and the supply - demand of styrene is relatively balanced. The price of styrene is mainly affected by the cost [139][140]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [140]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic Analysis: The supply may be adjusted, and the downstream polyester production cuts increase. The price has limited upward space and is expected to fluctuate weakly [142][144]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a weak - shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [144]. Short Fiber - Logic Analysis: The procurement sentiment is cautious, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [146]. Bottle Chip - Logic Analysis: Some bottle chip production devices are planned for maintenance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw material cost [147][148]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [149]. Propylene - Logic Analysis: The supply improvement is limited, and the downstream factory procurement is active. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [150][152]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [152]. Plastic PP - Logic Analysis: The PE and PP production has marginal cuts. The L 2605 contract can hold long positions, and the PP 2605 contract needs to pay attention to the pressure level [153][154]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions of the L 2605 contract and set the stop - loss at 6600 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the pressure at 6520 points; wait and see for arbitrage; sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract and set the stop - loss at 58.0 points [154]. Caustic Soda - Logic Analysis: The market sentiment improves, but the supply - demand contradiction continues. The price is expected to fluctuate [155][156]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [157]. PVC - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the export tax - refund policy has a great impact [158][160]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [160]. Soda Ash - Logic Analysis: The futures price is strong this week, but the high inventory pressure needs to be tested. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [160][161][164]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options at a high level in the far - month [164]. Glass - Logic Analysis: The futures price fluctuates widely this week. The cold - repair of production lines is concentrated, and the inventory shows a downward trend. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [165][166][168]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage and options [168]. Methanol - Logic Analysis: The international device operation rate is low, the supply in China is loose, and the Middle East situation provides support [169]. - Trading Strategy: Avoid short positions temporarily and go long in the short term; pay attention to the 59 positive spread arbitrage; sell put options on dips [170]. Urea - Logic Analysis: The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the demand is affected by various factors. The price fluctuates widely [171][172]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; hedging enterprises can pay attention to hedging opportunities [173]. Pulp - Logic Analysis: The market supply exceeds demand. The supply is stable, and the demand support is limited. The price fluctuates widely at a high level [173][174][176]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; aggressive investors can short a small amount near the previous high; wait and see for arbitrage and options [177]. Log - Logic Analysis: The spot price rebounds slightly. The market is affected by factors such as arrival volume and inventory. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in Chongqing and Yantai [177][178]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; aggressive investors can arrange long positions in a small amount; pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse spread arbitrage; wait and see for options [180]. Offset Printing Paper - Logic Analysis: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The paper mill's price - holding intention is strong, but the valuation is low. It may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [181]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [182][183]. Natural Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The supply is affected by disasters, and the inventory situation of different varieties is different [184][185][186]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of the RU 05 contract and set the stop - loss at 16135 points; wait and see for the NR 03 contract; hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread and set the stop - loss at +2950 points; sell the RU2605 call 17000 contract and set the stop - loss at 391 points [186][188]. Butadiene Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The warehouse receipt situation of BR is different, and the inventory of tires also accumulates [189][190]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the BR 03 contract; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread and set the stop - loss at - 985 points; wait and see for options [190][191].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on January 9, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16 - day consecutive rise and reaching over 4100 points, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. For example, the prices of copper,生猪, etc. are influenced by different factors and show different trends [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 9, the three major A - share indexes continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.92% to 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15% to 14120.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 3327.81 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31526 billion yuan, an increase of 3261 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 9, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1198.0 yuan, down 7.7 from the previous day, and the coke weighted index closed at 1749.6, down 32.0 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the EU carbon tariff has increased the cost of steel exports to the EU, the supply - side coke enterprise start - up has increased, and the total inventory has accumulated; the demand - side blast furnace start - up has also increased, and the daily average pig iron output has increased. For coking coal, domestic mine production capacity has recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance is relatively sufficient, and the clean coal inventory has accumulated, while the downstream steel - coke load has increased, but the coke enterprise profit loss has expanded [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - US sugar futures prices fell slightly due to the prospect of supply surplus last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend. As of the week ending January 6, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,654 to 170,756 [4]. Rubber - Affected by short - selling pressure, Shanghai rubber futures prices fell last Friday. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 3345 tons to 120950 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3900 tons to 104490 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 2015 tons to 59270 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1007 tons to 56952 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, China has purchased nearly 10 million tons of US soybeans, reaching 80% of the negotiated purchase plan. Brazilian soybeans are mostly sown, and early - maturing soybeans are entering the harvest period. It is estimated that Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. - Domestically, on January 9, the soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week. High - level soybean meal inventory will hinder price increases [6]. Live Pigs - On January 9, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11770 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The group farms have completed their annual slaughter plans, and the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises in January has been reduced. The demand side has strong seasonal consumption, which supports the price in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [7]. Shanghai Copper - Last Friday, the Shanghai copper main contract showed an upward trend, closing at 102220 yuan/ton. The macro - level has a strong easing expectation, and the supply of global copper mines remains tight. Although it is currently in the consumption off - season, emerging industries bring long - term demand growth. It is predicted that global copper demand will increase by 50% in 2040 [8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14490 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased compared with the previous trading day. The downstream yarn mills' purchasing power has weakened [8]. Iron Ore - On January 9, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed down 0.73% at 814.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [8]. Logs - On January 9, the log 2603 main contract opened at 780.5, with a lowest of 771, a highest of 780.5, and closed at 774.5, with a decrease of 258 lots in positions. The spot - end support needs to be concerned [8]. Asphalt - On January 9, the asphalt 2603 main contract closed up 0.51% at 3171 yuan. The current asphalt supply is at a low level, the inventory has accumulated, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the demand has decreased significantly. Supported by the cost of crude oil, the short - term price shows a volatile trend [10]. Steel - The current supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are stable, with low production, low consumption, and low inventory. After the New Year's Day, the building materials will enter the winter storage market. The plate is still restricted by high inventory, and the inventory pressure remains after the steel mills resume production. The black commodities are strong in the short term, but the fundamentals need to be tested later [10]. Alumina - The bauxite price has slightly declined, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, and the supply has slightly decreased. The demand for alumina has increased slightly due to the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The raw material alumina price is low, and the electrolytic aluminum plant's theoretical profit is good, with a positive production start - up sentiment. The domestic electrolytic aluminum new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is relatively stable. Due to the off - season, the downstream new orders have decreased, and the aluminum ingot inventory has continued to accumulate [10].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to limited supply and downstream stocking expectations. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be monitored [3]. - Starch prices are likely to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short - term. After the seasonal peak, inventory depletion will be the key factor for pricing [3]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season. In the domestic market, short - term pricing depends on domestic sugar costs, while long - term pricing may move towards out - of - quota import costs [6]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and positive trade relations [9]. - For eggs, the key to future inventory decline is the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [13]. - Apple prices show strong high - quality goods and weak general - quality goods. The short - term futures may maintain high - level fluctuations, and the medium - term pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [16]. - For pigs, there is an expectation of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the short - term [16] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Corn: From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions remained stable, with a 10 - unit increase in the蛇口 price. The basis increased by 3 units, trade profit by 10 units, and import profit by 35 units [2]. - Starch: From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions were unchanged, and the basis increased by 11 units, while processing profit remained the same [2] Sugar - From January 5 - 9, spot prices in some regions were stable. The basis decreased by 9 units, and import profit increased by 27 units. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - From January 5 - 9, the 3128 cotton price decreased by 100 units, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 250 units. The 32S spinning profit increased by 105 units [17]. Eggs - From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions increased slightly. The basis increased by 7 units, and the price of substitutes such as pigs increased by 0.08 units [13]. Apples - From January 5 - 9, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples was stable. The national inventory decreased by 158,000 tons, and Shandong inventory decreased by 21,000 tons [15][16]. Pigs - From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions had minor fluctuations, and the basis remained unchanged [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - There are multiple updates on the soybean and palm oil markets, including export sales, harvest progress, and inventory levels [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - A private exporter reported the sale of 198,000 tons of soybeans for the 2025/2026 market year to an unknown destination [1]. - Brazilian farmers have harvested 0.53% of the 2025/26 soybean crop, compared to 0.05% last year and a five - year average of 0.39% [1]. - In Brazil's Mato Grosso state, the 2025/26 soybean harvest started slightly earlier, with 1.98% of the total area harvested as of Friday, up 1.28 percentage points from 2025 and ahead of the historical average of 1.09% [1]. - On January 13, 2026, the National Grain and Material Reserves Bureau's Grain Trading Coordination Center will organize a competitive trading of imported soybeans, with a quantity of 1.1396 million tons at 13:30 [1]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 10 were 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase from the same period last month [1]. - A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December was 2.97 million tons, the highest since January 2019. December production is expected to decline 8.7% month - on - month to 1.77 million tons, while exports are expected to increase 2.9% month - on - month to 1.245 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 5 - 9, 2026 are provided [6].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 油脂油料：进口大豆拍卖重启 豆类偏弱对待 （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 本周国际油脂油料价格企稳，国内油脂油料价格重心上移。国内走势强于国际市场。 题材上，豆类市场等待1月供需报告指引。美国农业部1月供需报告13日凌晨一点发布，市场预计可能会 下调出口预估，因本市场年度截至1月1日大豆净销售同比减少29%。巴西大豆竞争增加，美豆出口窗口 或将于2月关闭。此外，市场预期美豆单产会调整，范围51.9-53.5蒲/英亩。最终，市场对美豆库存预估 差距非常大，范围2.45亿蒲-3.5亿蒲。此外，美豆季度库存报告也将发布。巴西大豆产量依然偏乐观， 机构陆续上调产量预估。马托格罗索开始收割，天气展望偏乐观，利于收割推进。巴西豆价格更有优 势，出口销售增加。国内油厂海外继续采购大豆，主要采购巴西豆和美豆。进口大豆拍卖重启，13日下 午举行，数量113.9万吨。在进口大豆补充下，国内一季度大豆供应有保证。下周豆类重心预计下移， 尤其是3月合约，震荡偏空思路。基差预计坚挺，月间反套思路。期权端，双卖期权离场。 油脂市 ...