研究报告 玻璃月报 预计 4 月玻璃期价将低位运行 后市展望：3 月整体市场仍处于偏弱格局，且生产端暂无冷修计划， 行业库存累增，中下游提货意愿较弱，出货偏慢，平板玻璃市场弱势运行； 预计 4 月玻璃产线冷修计划和复产点火计划体量或将变化不大，需求预计 改善空间有限，预计 4 月玻璃期价将低位运行。 交易策略：建议观望 【投资评级：★】 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：3 月玻璃 2509 合约下跌 7.21% 基本面：据国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 2 月我国平板玻璃产量为 15,173 万重量箱， ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 低估值的消费细分龙头具有较高胜率 2025 年 03 月 17 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024/3/18 2024/7/16 2024/11/13 2025/3/13 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《政策刺激力度符合预期》 2025-03-10 《建筑业 PMI 低位大幅反弹》 2025-03-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.3.10–2025.3.14，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 1.18%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 行业旺季渐行渐近，关注提价背后投资机会 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）下游需求逐步恢复，叠加行业自律错峰生 产执行落地，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥，塔牌集团等受益。（2） 风险逐步出清，推荐经营韧性超强的兔宝宝等；二手房交易数据 持续亮眼，叠加扩内需，促消费，推荐具备α属性的消费建材标的 三棵树、伟星新材等。（3）政府工作报告再提低空，推荐华设集 团、设计总院；深城交、苏交科、隧道股份等受益。（4）国家重 大工程雅鲁项目主体工程有望进入开工期，推荐重点工程中岩大 地。（5）推荐松井股份，汽车涂料国产替代需求旺盛，公司有望 放量；以机器人为代表的新型涂料潜在需求大。 ►第 11 周（03/09-03/15）新房交易逐步回温，二手房热度不 减。（1）30 城大中城市商品房交易数据：今年第 11 周，国内 30 大中城市商品房成交面积（新房）165.26 万㎡，同比+2%，环比 +14%；累计交易面积 1733.17 万㎡，同比+11%；从交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [1][52]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing an upward trend due to the approaching construction peak season and accelerated infrastructure funding, with a historical high in policy funding expected in 2025 [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing high demand for coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, with over 700 billion yuan in investments planned for 2025, indicating a robust outlook for leading companies in this sector [1]. - The report suggests a gradual recovery in demand for construction materials as the peak season approaches, with a focus on fiscal policy and real estate policy effects [3]. Summary by Sections Construction Materials - Cement prices increased by 0.7% week-on-week, with a 7% rise in shipment rates in key regions, indicating a slow recovery in demand [2][21]. - Glass prices decreased by 2.07% week-on-week, reflecting weak demand and slow processing plant operations [2][28]. - The fiberglass market shows a slight price increase, with the average price for non-alkali yarn rising by 0.63% week-on-week [2][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders such as Sanke Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and others, while also highlighting opportunities in cement and glass sectors [3][6]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policy and real estate market developments for potential investment opportunities [3][6]. Market Trends - The construction materials index outperformed the market index by 4.6% during the last reporting period, with a 30.2% increase over the past six months [11]. - The report notes that the construction sector is currently facing insufficient effective demand, with low leverage willingness among residents and enterprises [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the building materials industry, emphasizing price increases and improved shipping conditions as key drivers for growth in 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Price increases are the main theme for the building materials industry in spring 2025, signaling a return to rational competition after a period of aggressive price wars [3][32]. - The cement sector is experiencing price hikes driven by low inventory levels, with a consensus among companies to avoid destructive competition, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability [3][11]. - The consumer building materials segment is witnessing price increases across various categories, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [3][32]. - The fiberglass industry is seeing multiple rounds of price increases, suggesting a recovery in profitability, while the glass sector faces challenges related to construction completions [3][32]. Summary by Sections Cement - Low inventory levels are driving price increases, with significant hikes reported in various regions starting from March 2025 [7][8]. - The industry has reached a consensus to prevent destructive competition, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in profitability [11][12]. - Major companies such as Conch Cement are highlighted for their cost and scale advantages, with profitability expected to improve [18][19]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is improving due to active second-hand housing transactions, which are expected to boost shipments [36][49]. - Price increases in categories like gypsum board and coatings are signaling a shift towards profitability recovery [36][39]. - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [37][40]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a recovery in prices, with electronic yarn and cloth prices showing upward trends [52][53]. - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from new application scenarios and sustained demand growth [53][54]. Glass - The flat glass sector is under pressure due to declining construction completions, necessitating close monitoring of supply-side adjustments [32][49]. - Companies like Qibin Group and South Glass A are recommended for their market positions amid these challenges [32][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in industrial production, weak construction activity, and a significant increase in real estate transactions, indicating mixed signals in the economy [1][2]. Industrial Production - Industrial production shows a mixed performance, with downstream operations recovering while midstream and upstream sectors experience slight declines. For instance, the operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while PTA and soda ash saw declines of 0.5% and 5.7% respectively [1][5]. - High furnace operating rates have slightly improved, up 2.6% year-on-year, but overall consumption remains weak, down 6.6% compared to last year [4]. Construction Industry - The construction sector remains weak, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates down 6.6% and up 3.8% year-on-year, respectively. The asphalt operating rate is also at historical lows, down 2.5% [6][7]. Real Estate Transactions - National new home transactions have significantly declined, down 66.6% year-on-year, with second and third-tier cities also experiencing negative growth of 24.9% and 12.2% respectively. However, first-tier cities still show positive growth, albeit down 61.4% to 3.5% [2][9]. Transportation and Demand - There is a mild recovery in freight transportation, with railway and highway freight volumes increasing by 0.9% and 1.3% year-on-year, respectively. However, port cargo throughput has weakened, down 2.2% [10]. - Human mobility has decreased, with a 11.4% drop in migration scale index and a decline in domestic and international flight operations [11]. Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with vegetable, pork, and fruit prices down 1.7%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively. Conversely, egg prices have increased by 0.7% [14]. - The South China Industrial Price Index has continued to decline, with energy and chemical prices dropping by 2.2% and metal prices by 0.7% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government's strategy in response to external uncertainties is to stabilize consumption in the short term while focusing on technological innovation for future growth [2][4]. Economic Growth and Inflation Targets - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, aligning with the need to maintain employment and stabilize the economy amid external changes [4][10]. - The inflation target has been adjusted down to around 2%, reflecting a more pragmatic approach to managing price levels and addressing low inflation concerns [5][10]. Employment and Agricultural Goals - The urban unemployment rate target remains at around 5.5%, with a goal of creating 12 million new urban jobs, indicating a focus on employment stability [6]. - The grain production target has been raised to 1.4 trillion jin, emphasizing the importance of food security in the face of external challenges [7]. Fiscal Policy and Government Investment - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at 4%, with a new deficit scale of 566 billion yuan, indicating a more proactive fiscal stance [10][11]. - Government investment will focus on major strategic projects, aiming to leverage public investment to stimulate social investment and improve overall investment efficiency [34][36]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated to support economic growth [18][20]. - The focus will be on balancing liquidity and maintaining stable financing costs, with an emphasis on supporting technology, consumption, and the real estate market [19][21]. Consumption and Consumer Confidence - The government aims to boost consumption through various measures, including subsidies for upgrading consumer goods and enhancing service consumption [24][25]. - Policies will focus on increasing disposable income and reducing household burdens to enhance consumer confidence and spending [26][27]. Technological Innovation and Industrial Development - The government emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in driving new productive forces and modernizing the industrial system [38]. - There will be a push for the integration of technology and industry, fostering the development of advanced manufacturing and modern service sectors [38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown a decline in the Shenyin Wanguo Construction Materials Index by 0.30%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.28% [4][5] - The cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass prices have increased. The national average cement price is 391.17 RMB/ton, down by 0.51% from January 27 [7][14] - The report highlights a significant drop in real estate transactions due to the Spring Festival, with a 71.5% decrease in transaction area [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The Shenyin Wanguo Construction Materials Index fell by 0.30%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.98%, indicating a 2.28% underperformance [5] - The cement index decreased by 0.88%, while the glass and fiberglass index increased by 1.74% [5] Industry Dynamics and Key Sub-industry Tracking - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a total of 5,359 units sold, a decrease of 12,846 units from the previous week, with a transaction area of 56.18 million square meters, down 71.5% [6] - The national cement average price has slightly decreased, with the largest drop in East China at 6.67 RMB/ton [7] - The national average price for float glass increased to 1,347.14 RMB/ton, up by 1.51% from January 27, with the largest increase in South China at 80 RMB/ton [14] Core Investment Insights - The cement industry is experiencing a continued price decline with reduced inventory levels, indicating a potential bottoming out of the market [16] - The glass industry is facing a balance of weak supply and demand, with a slight increase in production expected in 2024 compared to 2023 [16] - The report identifies a positive trend in the plastic pipe, building coatings, and gypsum board sectors, with leading companies likely to increase market share [17] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Qibin Group, and Weixing New Materials, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 outlined for each company [18][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The real estate beta factor is more positive, suggesting a proactive layout in retail building materials [6] - Attention is drawn to the cement industry's bottom improvement, with price increases stabilizing profits during the off-season, indicating emerging bottom signals [8] - There is a recommendation to focus on high-dividend stocks for their allocation value [9] - The strategy for 2025 indicates a profit bottom, with a supply-demand inflection point approaching [12] Market Performance - The report includes market performance data for the period from February 24 to February 28, 2025 [15] Price Changes - Cement prices during the specified period showed fluctuations, with specific price points noted for different types of cement [20] - The report also covers price changes for float glass and fiberglass during the same period [24][29] Company Tracking and Industry News - Key companies such as Zhonggang Rongnai and Dongfang Yuhong reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024 [47] - The report highlights industry news, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's announcement of urban village renovation projects and the National Energy Administration's goals for renewable energy generation in 2025 [49]

Group 1: Key Insights on Jidian Co., Ltd. (吉电股份) - Jidian Co., Ltd. has transformed from a coal-fired power company to a renewable energy enterprise, with its renewable energy capacity surpassing coal-fired capacity in 2019 [2] - The company is focusing on green hydrogen production, with significant projects like the Daan wind-solar integrated green hydrogen project and the Siping pear tree green methanol project [4][5] - The company’s installed capacity includes 3.3 million kW of coal power, 3.47 million kW of wind power, and 6.62 million kW of solar power, with renewable energy contributing significantly to revenue and gross profit [2][6] Group 2: Industry Trends and Opportunities - The green electricity sector is approaching a turning point, driven by accelerated grid construction and supportive policies that enhance the power system's adjustment capabilities [5] - The global hydrogen demand is projected to exceed 97 million tons in 2023, with green hydrogen expected to play a crucial role in meeting future energy needs [3] - The chemical industry is experiencing a structural opportunity, with low valuations and potential recovery in demand expected by 2025, particularly in potassium fertilizers and organic silicon [29][32] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Projections - The suspension of diamond exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to create a supply shortage, potentially driving up diamond prices [26][27] - The construction materials sector is seeing a recovery in demand, particularly in cement and glass fiber, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [18][19][22] - The AI and education sector is witnessing advancements, with companies like Duolingo reporting significant revenue growth, indicating a trend towards commercialization of AI applications in education [9]