Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price rose sharply due to the smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70. The short - term focus is on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [1][2]. - The asphalt price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [4][5][6]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [8][9][10]. - The natural gas price is expected to rise due to increasing demand in the US and Europe [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [17][18]. - The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [20][21]. - The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [21][22][23]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [25][26]. - The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [27][28][29]. - The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [30][31]. - The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [32][33][34]. - The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [37][38][39]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [40][41][42]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [43][44]. - The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [44][45]. - The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [46][47][48]. - The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread [49][50]. - The natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $68.15, up $3.17 per barrel (+4.88%); Brent2508 contract settled at $69.77, up $2.90 per barrel (+4.34%); SC main contract 2507 rose to 481.2 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 497.4 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the US planned to evacuate some embassy staff in Iraq due to increased security risks, which led to a more than 4% increase in oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in oil prices. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70, with short - term focus on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wait - and - see [3]. 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 night - session closed at 3475 points (+0.40%); BU2512 night - session closed at 3824 points (+0.30%) [4]. - **Related Information**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained stable. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: In the short - term, the asphalt price is supported by strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread weakening; wait - and - see for options [7]. 3. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2507 night - session closed at 4088 (-0.41%); PG2508 night - session closed at 3980 (-0.55%) [7]. - **Related Information**: The propane market was stable with some declines, and the supply in South China decreased while that in Shandong increased [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a weakening trend [8]. 4. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2943 (+0.89%); LU08 night - session closed at 3610 (+1.23%) [8]. - **Related Information**: Russia's offline primary refining capacity in July is expected to increase by 21%, and the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 spread when the price is low [8][11]. 5. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased, but the demand was strong, and the price is expected to rise. In Europe, the natural gas price rose due to high - temperature weather and increasing cooling demand [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH when the price is low; oscillation for TTF [13]. 6. PX and PTA - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6528 (+0.40%), night - session closed at 6504 (-0.37%); TA509 main contract closed at 4620 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 4602 (-0.39%) [14][15]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14][15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA for spreads; double - selling options [16][17]. 7. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4285 (+0.37%), night - session closed at 4269 (-0.37%) [17]. - **Related Information**: A synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for maintenance [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [18][19]. 8. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6414 (+0.88%), night - session closed at 6374 (-0.62%) [19]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 9. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5802 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 5788 (-0.24%) [20]. - **Related Information**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, with some decreases [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 10. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7349 (+0.04%), night - session closed at 7372 (+0.31%) [21]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased, while the inventory of styrene in East China main ports decreased [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [22]. 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot market was in range - bound consolidation; caustic soda spot price in Shandong decreased [24][25]. - **Related Information**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, short on rebounds; for PVC, wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the long - term; caustic soda 7 - 9 and 8 - 10 reverse spreads after the spot weakens; wait - and - see for options [27]. 12. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in some regions increased slightly, and the price of PP in some regions increased [27][28]. - **Related Information**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased slightly, and the PP maintenance ratio increased [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term; wait - and - see for spreads and options [29]. 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton (+0.30%), night - session closed at 985 yuan/ton (-1.30%) [29]. - **Related Information**: The domestic float glass market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was average [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [32]. 14. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton (-0.5%), night - session closed at 1189 yuan (-1.1%) [32]. - **Related Information**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, with some enterprises' prices declining [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [35]. 15. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2288 (+0.35%) [36]. - **Related Information**: The methanol port inventory increased, and the international device operating rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, do not chase; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [37]. 16. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1667 (-0.66%) [37]. - **Related Information**: The daily output of urea increased, and the inventory of urea production enterprises increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend, do not chase short; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options on rebounds [40]. 17. Log - **Market Review**: The log futures main contract closed at 765 yuan/cubic meter, down 6 yuan/cubic meter [41]. - **Related Information**: The log spot market was stable, and the sea freight of imported coniferous logs decreased [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see; consider 9 - 11 reverse spreads; wait - and - see for options [43]. 18. Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was stable with some declines [43]. - **Related Information**: The supply and demand of the double - offset paper market changed little, and the social demand was still weak [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [44]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 19. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The price of corrugated paper and box - board paper decreased slightly [44]. - **Related Information**: The market sentiment was weak, and the raw material cost increased [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [45]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 20. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures were weakly running [46]. - **Related Information**: A new pulp product was launched by Stora Enso [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 07 contract; wait - and - see for spreads [48]. 21. Butadiene Rubber and Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 08 contract closed at 11045, unchanged; the RU main 09 contract closed at 13815 (-0.54%); the NR main 08 contract closed at 12050 (-0.54%) [49][52]. - **Related Information**: The US tire imports increased in the first four months of 2025 [50][53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread; the natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [50][54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the BR main 08 contract; consider BR2508 - NR2508 and BR2509 - RU2509 spreads; hold long positions for RU and NR main contracts; wait - and - see for options [5

Group 1: Report Core View - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level. The supply has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually recovering, supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants has declined but is still at a historical high; bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,202 yuan/ton, and the basis is 42 yuan. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price; bullish [2] - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.627 million tons, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash market, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short - term [2] 2. Influencing Factors - **Bullish**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3] - **Bearish**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4] 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous | 1,208 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 36 yuan | | Current | 1,202 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 42 yuan | | Change | - 0.50% | 0.00% | 16.67% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] 5. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of the joint - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15] - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and recover. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 704,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 382,200 tons, and the production volume has declined from a historical high [18][20] - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [21] 6. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [24] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and production has stabilized [30] 7. Fundamentals - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.627 million tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 837,000 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33] 8. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate. In general, the industry has experienced fluctuations in supply and demand, with some years having a supply surplus and others having a supply shortage [34]

然橡胶产业期现目报 中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发明货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同消 分析方法，并不代表广发期货或晨附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或润 者据此得资,风险自相,本报告宣布发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归广发期货所有,未经广发期货书面授 任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共矿 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13750 | 13850 | -100 | -0.72% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -140 | વર્ત | -185 | -411.11% | 元/吨 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing China-US talks have improved market sentiment, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market. However, the traditional off-season for steel has arrived, with weakening demand and abundant raw material supply, suggesting limited fundamental support for the rebound [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, but future concerns are emerging. Supply is increasing while demand is expected to decline, which may lead to slower inventory depletion and potential accumulation [19]. - The relaxation of China-US relations has boosted market sentiment, causing coking coal to rebound due to previous overselling. Coke has also followed, but its rebound is weaker due to downstream price cuts. The demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. - Short - term market sentiment for ferroalloys has improved, but the long - term trend remains weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost decline, and the off - season for steel demand. However, the high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level [51]. - The production of soda ash is expected to gradually recover, and the market remains in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. - The glass market has a nearly 10% decline in cumulative apparent demand. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes [4][8]. - **Market Situation**: The off - season has led to a decline in some steel demand, such as a significant decrease in the outbound volume of building materials in Hangzhou and inventory accumulation in multiple regions for hot - rolled coils. Although steel mills maintain production through product switching, the supply of raw materials is abundant, and the rebound of the futures market lacks strong fundamental support [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased compared to the previous day, while the basis decreased. The daily and weekly changes in different contracts varied [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline. The production of five major steel products has not decreased significantly, but the demand has a seasonal decline, increasing the inventory depletion pressure [19][28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of changes. The coking coal prices rebounded more strongly, and the coking profit on the futures market shrank [35]. - **Market Situation**: The relaxation of China - US relations has driven the rebound of coking coal and coke. The current basis is in a reasonable range, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot and futures contracts, as well as their basis and spreads, showed different changes. The cost of ferrosilicon and the prices of raw materials for ferromanganese also changed to some extent [52][53]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, but the long - term trend is still weak. The high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level, with the cost expected to decline [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable [67][68]. - **Market Situation**: The production of soda ash is expected to recover, and the market is in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis and spreads also changed. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions varied [94][97]. - **Market Situation**: The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined nearly 10%. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply has declined from a high level and stabilized, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory, although declining, remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming, supply has declined from a high level and stabilized. Downstream float and photovoltaic glass daily melting amounts are stable, terminal demand is average, and soda ash factory inventory has declined but remains at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,208 yuan/ton, and the basis is 36 yuan, with futures at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.627 million tons, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - Bullish: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Bearish: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting amount continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,202 yuan/ton | 1,242 yuan/ton | 40 yuan | | Current Value | 1,208 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 36 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.50% | 0.16% | - 10.00% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of the combined - soda method for heavy soda in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production of soda ash is 704,100 tons, including 382,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - Production Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual planned production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 107.66% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting amount of national float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting amount in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.627 million tons, including 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period [33]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [34].

| | 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月11日 | | 越常勤 | Z0021810 | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | eHaH | | 命神 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 13650 | | 云南国富关部 胶(SCRWF): 下海 13850 | 200 | 1.47% | | | -75 | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 | 120 | 160.00% | 元/吨 | | 13650 | | 泰标混合胶报价 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | -75 | | 非标价差 -ટેર | 20 | 26.67% | | | 45.20 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.20 | 1.00 | 2.21% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 56.00 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 56.25 | 0.25 | 0.45% | | | 12200 | | ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash industry has entered a downward cycle since 2025, with prices dropping nearly 200 yuan/ton due to oversupply from capacity expansion and a decline in demand from end-user industries like photovoltaic and real estate [1] Group 1: Supply and Capacity Expansion - The domestic soda ash industry experienced a bull market from 2021 to 2024, with profits peaking at over 1500 yuan/ton in 2021. However, a new capacity expansion cycle began in 2023, leading to a bearish market in 2024 [2] - Effective domestic soda ash capacity increased from 30 million tons to 40 million tons, a growth of over 30%. New capacity additions are expected to continue, with 2.1 million tons planned for the first half of 2025 and additional expansions from various companies [2][3] - The industry is transitioning towards lower-cost production methods, with natural soda ash expected to account for about 50% of total capacity, while ammonia-based production is anticipated to decline below 20% [2] Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - The soda ash industry is facing significant price pressure due to high supply and stagnant or declining demand. As of early June 2025, total inventory levels exceeded 300,000 tons, contributing to downward price pressure [3] - Demand for soda ash is particularly affected by the glass industry, with a notable decline in daily melting capacity for both float glass and photovoltaic glass since July 2024. This decline is expected to continue, further impacting soda ash demand [4] - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with a 17% decrease in completed housing area from January to April 2025, leading to weak glass demand and increased inventory levels [4] Group 3: Cost and Price Outlook - The soda ash price is expected to continue its downward trend, with support levels projected between 1100 and 1150 yuan/ton. The cost structure is shifting downward due to falling raw material prices, including a nearly 70 yuan/ton drop in raw salt prices since 2025 [5][6] - The production cost of soda ash is anticipated to decrease by 170 to 200 yuan/ton compared to the end of 2024, with potential further declines in raw salt and coal prices [5][6] - The theoretical price floor for soda ash could reach between 950 and 1000 yuan/ton in the medium to long term, indicating a challenging market environment [6] Group 4: Market Strategy - The industry is advised to adopt a bearish outlook, monitoring for opportunities to hedge against price declines. Companies should focus on macroeconomic factors and potential production cuts to identify selling opportunities [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash futures dated June 10, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Report series [2] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - The prices of heavy soda ash in Huazhong, East China, and North China remained unchanged on June 10, 2025, compared to the previous day, while the price in Shahe increased by 2 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, and the price in the Northwest decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [3] - The prices of light soda ash in Huazhong and North China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, and the price in the Northwest decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [3] - The average price difference between heavy and light soda ash increased by 4 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - Among the SA09, SA01, and SA05 contracts, the SA09 contract price increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1208 yuan/ton, the SA01 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1191 yuan/ton, and the SA05 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1233 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract decreased by 64,797 lots to 1,448,568 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 364,582 lots to 1,382,031 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 149 to 5,495 [3] Basis and Spread - Among the SA09, SA01, and SA05 contracts, the basis of the SA09 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, the basis of the SA01 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton, and the basis of the SA05 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 11 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of SA01 - 05 remained unchanged at -42 yuan/ton, the spread of SA05 - 09 decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, and the spread of SA09 - 01 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Data - The weekly production of soda ash was 704,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77% and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [3] - The operating rate of soda ash was 80.76%, a week - on - week increase of 2.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61% [3] - The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.627 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year increase of 98.85% [3] - The apparent demand for soda ash was 701,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.01% [3] - The profit of the combined soda process was 178 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 80.59% [3] - The profit of the ammonia - soda process was 49.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.62% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Conditions - According to Longzhong Information, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 2 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, the price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton, the price of light soda ash in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash was 49 yuan/ton [5] Important Information - As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6783 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons or 3.15% from the previous Thursday [6] - The domestic soda ash market was weakly sorted, and the trading center moved down. The soda ash plant had small fluctuations, with Jiangsu Huachang starting operation and the output gradually increasing. The downstream demand was average, the profit level of some industries was average, and their own inventory was at a high level. The procurement sentiment for soda ash was cautious, and the purchase was mainly based on low - price and on - demand [6] Logic Analysis - Today, macro - level disturbances were greater than industry - level factors, and the market was concerned about the results of further Sino - US negotiations [7] - On the supply side, the old line of Haihua will start operation tomorrow, Shaanxi Xinghua may have maintenance at the end of the month, and Jiangsu Kunshan is expected to have maintenance on the 19th. The daily output of soda ash remains unchanged at 107,000 tons [7] - On the demand side, short - term demand was stable, but there were medium - term concerns. The output of float glass and photovoltaic glass still had room to decline, especially the concern about the cold repair of float glass affected the demand for soda ash [7] - On the cost side, the market began to think that the room for further decline in the raw material side was limited. Ammonium chloride may weaken seasonally, but the losses of ammonia - soda and combined soda processes were not deep enough to stimulate market clearance, and maintenance was only temporary [7] - In terms of time, the rainy season and off - season were approaching, and it was difficult for demand to increase. The natural market clearance of supply depends on profit and cycle [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Macro factors were dominant, the game between long and short positions intensified. From a fundamental perspective, the price still had room to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [9]

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...