(本版专题数据由证券时报中心数据库提供) 内需市场一头连着经济发展，一头连着社会民生，是经济发展的重要依托。 2025年政府工作报告将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"列为今年政府工作十项任 务之首，并围绕"大力提振消费"作出了具体工作部署，提出要"实施提振消费专项行动，制定提升消费 能力、增加优质供给、改善消费环境专项措施，释放多样化、差异化消费潜力，推动消费提质升级"。 今年以来，一系列扩内需促消费政策发力显效，做强国内大循环，进一步释放我国超大规模市场活力。 在一季度实现"开门红"后，多地抓紧部署二季度经济工作重点，明确进一步聚焦提振内需，加快释放政 策效能。 广东明确，大力提振消费需求，深入实施提振消费专项行动，推动消费品以旧换新政策惠及领域进一步 延伸拓展，持续放大撬动效应；适度加大消费补贴和政府采购力度，促进广货国货消费、新型消费、入 境消费、公共消费等，不断挖掘消费增量，激发消费活力。 紧随其后的是达仁堂（600329），滚动市盈率为10.3倍。公司2024年归母净利润为22.3亿元，同比增长 125.94%，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利12.80元(含税)。市盈率较低的还有 ...

| 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 计算机 | 80.08 | 16.11 | 4.54 | 3.65 | 56.72 | | 电子 | 73.37 | 23.97 | 2.68 | 2.64 | 46.98 | | 非银金 融 | 42.19 | 31.55 | 1.02 | 1.38 | 24.29 | | 机械设 备 | 90.99 | 18.74 | 3.40 | 3.04 | 22.76 | | 有色金 属 | 43.08 | 42.69 | 1.97 | 2.57 | 20.75 | | 通信 | 31.97 | 41.66 | 1.85 | 3.59 | 20.12 | | 电力设 备 | 54.55 | 8.54 | 2.26 | 2.16 | 15.08 | | 汽车 | 53.94 | 4.84 | 2.51 | 2.20 | 13.02 | | 传媒 | 41.10 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market outlook post "May Day" is optimistic, with expectations for A-shares to likely "catch up" after the holiday [1] - The focus for investment allocation is on technology and dividend themes, which are seen as key areas of interest among analysts [1] - In the context of increasing global geopolitical tensions, dividend assets are recognized for their stabilizing role [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, A-share companies showed improved overall profitability in Q1, but there is significant sectoral divergence [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in mitigating economic pressures from the US-China trade war [2] - May presents opportunities primarily in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, with a recommendation to focus on TMT sectors and potential growth areas in consumer demand [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities highlights that technology and consumption may be the main focus for investment in May, with historical trends showing strong performance in these sectors during this period [3] - The report notes that the "May Day" holiday saw a surge in travel and consumption, benefiting sectors like social services and food and beverage [3] - There is an expectation for technology to yield excess returns in May, driven by industry trends and policy support [3] Group 4 - The report suggests that sectors with strong Q1 performance are likely to outperform in May, including computing, robotics, media, telecommunications, electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric power [4] - It also recommends low-cost dividend sectors such as large financials and electric power for investment during this period [4] Group 5 - CITIC Construction emphasizes a focus on technology growth and service consumption in the short term, with a market outlook indicating a potential shift towards growth stocks [5] - The report suggests a rotational market pattern characterized by "growth-risk-avoidance-consumption" phases [5] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, machinery, computing, automotive, home appliances, agriculture, retail, beauty care, and social services [5]

本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 市场概览:2025Q1除了纯债型基金外，主要基金指数均录得正收益，主动 权益基金跑出超额。从总规模上来看，今年一季度公募基金总规模保持 稳定，主动权益基金规模微涨，结构上变化不大。类固定收益基金仍然 占比较重，达68.8%，而主动权益基金规模占比仅11%，有较大的发展空 间。 SAC 执业证书编号： 主动权益基金持仓分析：共重仓持有2638家上市公司，持股总市值约为 2.96万亿元，增长2.18%，股票仓位略有提高，重仓持有港股市场的市值 大幅增加。重仓行业方面，通信行业在本季度退出了前十大重仓行业， 而有色金属则新晋跻身前十大重仓行业之列，与内需消费息息相关的商 贸零售和轻工制造板块在行业下跌时市值在逆市增长，或指向基金逆市 增持。重仓持有的个股方面，腾讯控股跃升为第一大重仓个股，美的集 团和立讯精密出现逆市减仓。 基 金 专 题 集中度分析：行业和个股集中度更高，具体来看前十大重仓个股占比从 18.41%提升至20.14%，前十大重仓行业占比从70.19%提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the e-commerce sector's competitive landscape is better than expected, with leading companies like Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop recommended due to their low valuations [1][18] - In the OTA segment, Ctrip's outbound travel and overseas business continue to show high growth, with a recommendation for Ctrip Group [1][20] - The local lifestyle sector shows strong profitability potential, with Meituan being a key recommendation [1][19] - In the shared mobility sector, Didi's market share stabilizes with significant profit growth potential, leading to a recommendation for Didi Chuxing [1][20] Industry Overview - The restaurant and tourism sector index decreased by 1.74%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index (down 0.43%) and the ChiNext index (up 0.04%) [6][8] - The retail sector index fell by 1.85%, also underperforming against the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [6][8] - During the May Day holiday, the total inter-regional population flow is expected to reach 1.467 billion, with a daily average of 293 million, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase [6][27] E-commerce Sector - The report indicates that the e-commerce sector's profit levels are expected to stabilize and improve, with a focus on Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD, and Vipshop [18][21] Local Lifestyle Sector - Meituan's core business profits exceeded expectations, with continued growth in its in-store services and flash purchase segments [19] Shared Mobility Sector - Didi is expected to maintain stable growth with significant profit potential, supported by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles and optimized product structures [20] OTA Sector - Ctrip's Q4 2024 financial report showed a revenue of 12.74 billion yuan, a 23.4% increase, and a net profit of 3.04 billion yuan, a 13.6% increase, slightly exceeding market expectations [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance and strategic initiatives of Lishang Guochao, particularly in the context of China's consumption promotion efforts in 2024 [1][2][3] - In Q1 2025, Lishang Guochao reported total revenue of 177 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.42%, and a net profit of 58.84 million yuan, reflecting a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 268.48% [1] - The company has achieved high occupancy rates in its professional markets, with the Hangzhou market at approximately 96.5% and the Nanjing market at about 95.6%, indicating strong demand and effective management [1] Group 2 - Lishang Guochao's Hangzhou market was recognized as the "Most Influential Professional Leading Market" at the 2024 China Service Consumption Innovation Conference, reinforcing its position in the apparel distribution sector [2] - The company is embracing digital transformation through platforms like "Lichao Purchase" and "Lida Tong," enhancing merchant capabilities and logistics transparency, which are crucial for navigating competitive market conditions [2] - Recent government policies, including the "Purchase in China" initiative and the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," are aimed at stimulating domestic consumption, which aligns with Lishang Guochao's strategic focus [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The allocation value of ultra - long credit bonds has increased, with rising trading volume and a higher proportion of low - valuation transactions. The trading volume and price performance vary among different regions and industries of ultra - long urban investment bonds and ultra - long industrial bonds [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Bonds: Rising Trading Volume and Higher Proportion of Low - valuation Transactions - **Trading Volume**: The daily trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds increased this week. The average daily trading volume was 3.3 transactions, up from 3.0 last week. The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 - 10 years increased significantly. The total trading volume this week was 30.3 billion yuan, a 12.64% increase from last week. The trading activity of industrial bonds was higher than that of urban investment bonds [2][11]. - **Trading Term**: The institutional preference for duration decreased. The average trading term of ultra - long credit bonds was 9.83 years, a decrease of 0.31 years from last week. The average trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds decreased by 1.07 years, and that of industrial bonds decreased by 0.14 years [3][12]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yield of ultra - long credit bonds increased by 1bp to 2.37%. The trading yield of ultra - long urban investment bonds increased by 8bp, while that of ultra - long industrial bonds decreased by 1bp. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of ultra - long credit bonds rose to 53%, with a significant increase in ultra - long industrial bonds from 38% last week. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 15 - 20 years decreased by about 55 percentage points [3][13]. 3.2 Ultra - long Urban Investment Bonds: Rising Trading Volume in Xinjiang and Sichuan, Marginal Increase in the Proportion of Low - valuation Transactions in Hebei - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Xinjiang was relatively high at 1.47 billion yuan this week. The trading volume in Hebei and Shandong decreased significantly compared to last week, by 870 million yuan and 490 million yuan respectively, while that in Xinjiang and Sichuan increased [15]. - **Trading Term**: The average trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds was 8.68 years. The trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Liaoning increased by 0.12 years compared to last week, while that in Anhui decreased by 14.03 years [17]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yields of urban investment bonds in Liaoning and Shandong were relatively high, exceeding 3%. The trading yields of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Shandong and Beijing increased by 38bp and 32bp respectively compared to last week, while those in Fujian and Zhejiang decreased by 21bp and 16bp respectively. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Xinjiang decreased by 86 percentage points compared to last week, while that in Hebei and Hubei increased [17]. 3.3 Ultra - long Industrial Bonds: Rising Trading Volume in Utilities and Petrochemical Industries, Decreasing Proportion of Low - valuation Transactions in Commerce and Retail and Coal Industries - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds in the utilities industry was relatively high at 9.86 billion yuan this week. The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds in the utilities and petrochemical industries increased significantly compared to last week, by 5.76 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds in the comprehensive industry decreased by about 3.49 billion yuan [20]. - **Trading Term**: The trading terms of ultra - long industrial bonds in the utilities and comprehensive industries shortened significantly this week, by 2.31 years and 0.85 years respectively compared to last week. The trading terms of ultra - long industrial bonds in the non - ferrous metals and transportation industries lengthened significantly, by 9.79 years and 5.92 years respectively [23][24]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yields of ultra - long industrial bonds in the social services and coal industries increased by 65bp and 48bp respectively compared to last week. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of ultra - long industrial bonds in the electronics industry was relatively high at 100%. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of ultra - long industrial bonds in the commerce and retail and coal industries decreased significantly this week [24].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global market dynamics influenced by tariff impacts, particularly focusing on the U.S. and Chinese markets, as well as the performance of various asset classes including equities and commodities like gold. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Impact Recovery**: The Japanese and U.S. stock markets rebounded after the elimination of tariff impacts, surpassing pre-tariff levels by May 2, indicating that the influence of tariffs on stock markets has been largely repaired [1][2] - **Resilience of Chinese Assets**: Despite a weaker performance post-tariff impact, the decline in trade dependency on the U.S. has provided resilience to Chinese assets, which the market has not fully priced in yet [1][3] - **U.S. Stock Market Ambiguity**: The U.S. stock market has shown mixed signals, with non-farm data exceeding expectations leading to new highs, but disappointing GDP data and political factors have resulted in a fragile rebound, potentially delaying interest rate cuts [1][4][5] - **China's Policy Response**: China is enhancing cooperation with non-U.S. economies and signaling engagement with the U.S., while also expected to introduce domestic demand policies to counter external trade uncertainties [1][6] - **Macroeconomic Volatility Forecast**: By Q2 2025, macroeconomic volatility in the U.S. is expected to increase, with China clarifying external negotiation outcomes and implementing domestic policies, contributing to heightened global market fluctuations [1][7] - **Downstream Profit Recovery**: Since 2022, there has been a gradual recovery in profitability in downstream sectors, with midstream sectors also beginning to stabilize, attracting market attention towards companies performing well in the domestic demand sector [1][8] - **Gold Market Transition**: The demand for gold in China has weakened due to the recovery of RMB assets, leading to a potential shift of funds back to RMB assets. After a recent correction, gold is expected to enter a transitional phase and gradually stabilize [1][9] - **Small and Mid-Cap Stock Trends**: Small-cap stocks with high valuations and growth potential have seen significant gains, but the sustainability of this trend is uncertain. AI is identified as a major industry trend, although current data from listed companies does not reflect this [1][10] - **Focus on Domestic Demand**: There is a preference for investing in China's domestic demand sectors, including consumer and core consumer assets, while also considering industrial capital goods and key stocks like banks and insurance [1][11] - **Market Sentiment on Growth Stocks**: The market sentiment is leaning towards a volatile structural shift, favoring heavyweight stocks while maintaining caution towards small and mid-cap growth stocks due to their lower expected sustainability and volatility resistance [1][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of various markets, with a strong emphasis on the need for policy adjustments in response to external pressures and internal economic conditions [1][7][11]

Group 1 - The overall holding value of northbound funds reached 2.24 trillion RMB as of March 31, 2025, an increase of approximately 25.7 billion RMB compared to the end of Q4 2024, accounting for about 5.5% of the free float market value of A-shares [1][8][11] - Long-term allocation funds from foreign banks held 1.71 trillion RMB, increasing by about 10.8 billion RMB, representing 4.2% of the free float market value, while short-term trading funds from foreign brokerages held 0.38 trillion RMB, increasing by approximately 11.2 billion RMB, accounting for 0.93% [1][8][11] Group 2 - Northbound funds showed a significant increase in allocation to momentum, liquidity, and growth styles in Q1, reversing the previous quarter's reduction in these areas [2][17][22] - The overall style preferences of northbound funds included overweight positions in market capitalization, momentum, volatility, profitability, growth, and leverage, while underweight positions were noted in beta, BP, and liquidity [2][20][25] Group 3 - The highest holding value proportion of northbound funds was in the consumer sector at 6.9%, followed by financials at 6.0%, with a slight increase in the cyclical sector [3][28][32] - Northbound funds were overweight in consumer and financial sectors compared to the overall A-share market, while they were underweight in stability, technology, and cyclical sectors [3][38][42] Group 4 - The top five industries for northbound funds in terms of holding proportion changes were automotive, retail, consumer services, machinery, and electronics, while the bottom five included utilities, financials, telecommunications, real estate, and construction [3][42][45] - Northbound funds were overweight in industries such as power equipment and new energy, food and beverage, home appliances, banking, and automotive, while underweight in computer, basic chemicals, machinery, defense, and electronics [3][51][52] Group 5 - In terms of index allocation, northbound funds showed a decrease in holding proportions for the Shanghai 50 (-0.5%), CSI 300 (-0.3%), and CSI 500 (-0.2%), while there was a slight increase for the CSI 1000 (+0.1%) [4][58][62] - Northbound funds were overweight in the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 compared to the overall A-share market, while underweight in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [4][67]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: A-shares are expected to see a "good start" after the holiday due to marginal improvement in Q1 earnings and positive external factors [1] - A-shares are supported by favorable domestic and international environments, including improved performance of Hong Kong and US markets during A-share holidays [1] - Suggested investment themes include sectors with recovering demand and low tariff impact, such as AI-related infrastructure and export chains with low exposure to the US [1] Group 2 - Core viewpoint: Bank stocks are highlighted for their dividend attributes, suggesting a focus on their investment value [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of large banks, China Merchants Bank, and quality rural commercial banks for investment consideration [2] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with a potential shift towards growth sectors in May, including electronics, machinery, and consumer goods [2]