美元指数基本持平；日元兑美元升值0.6%至154.955，接近一周最强水平。 Capital.com高级分析师Kyle Rodda表示："在新的人工智能估值担忧中，'圣诞反弹'无法启动。虽然风险不如上周那么高，但仍有足 够的事件风险让投资者保持警觉，这可能为圣诞反弹提供火花，或同样可能加深抛售。" 核心市场 标普500指数期货上涨0.3%，纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2%； 欧洲斯托克50指数期货上涨0.3%； MSCI亚太指数下跌0.6%；日经225指数下跌1.3%，韩国KOSPI指数下跌 亚太股市周一大幅下挫，延续上周五的美股科技股抛售势头，MSCI亚太（除日本）指数下跌1.2%。美股期货周一小幅反弹，试图 从上周五超1%的跌幅中恢复，同时金银铜等大宗商品强势反弹，黄金逼近历史高点，比特币逆转早前跌势，回升至9万美元，显示 风险情绪有所企稳。眼下，市场动荡的核心在于对人工智能投资回报的质疑持续发酵。 上周五美股科技股领跌，反映出市场对推动全球基准指数创下历史新高的科技股能否继续支撑高估值的怀疑加剧。新加坡Lucerne Asset Management投资主管Marc Velan指出，亚洲市场的避险情绪 ...

加密货币行业巨头云集阿布扎比，急寻资金注入以振兴陷入低迷的市场。在比特币自 10 月起失去动 能、行业遭遇意外寒冬之际，从 MicroStrategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 到币安创始人赵长鹏等关键人物纷 纷现身阿联酋首都，希望获得当地深口袋投资者的资金支持。 据华尔街日报周日报道，上周的多场会议中，加密货币高管们在各个会场间奔波，从比特币中东会议到 「巨鲸专属」海滩俱乐部夜宴，再到超级游艇上的香槟派对，他们积极寻求与阿联酋主权财富基金代表 接触。据悉，管理着 3300 亿美元资产的阿联酋主权财富基金代表正在会场中活动。 阿联酋对加密货币的兴趣持续升温。币安上周获得阿布扎比金融监管机构全面批准，可从该地运营全球 交易平台。主权财富基金 Mubadala 的一个部门 11 月披露已将比特币投资增加两倍，建仓价值约 5.18 亿美元，同时通过 ETF 持有另外 5.67 亿美元的比特币头寸。 风投公司 RockawayX 在演示中将阿联酋称为「数字金融的新华尔街」，该公司刚宣布将被阿布扎比投 资者支持的公司收购。然而业内人士提醒，获得阿联酋资金通常需要数年关系建设和本地业务承诺，而 非「空降取钱就 ...

现货白银持续走高，日内涨超3%，现报63.87美元/盎司。 现货黄金日内涨超1%，现报4348美元/盎司。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a fundamental shift in artificial intelligence from the digital realm to the physical world, predicting a global robotics hardware market worth $25 trillion by 2050 due to this transition [1][4]. Group 1: Market Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley's global robotics model forecasts that global robotics hardware sales will surge from approximately $100 billion in 2025 to $500 billion by 2030, reaching $9 trillion by 2040 and $25 trillion by 2050 [1][5]. - By 2050, it is estimated that 1.4 billion robots will be sold globally, with a total of 6.5 billion operational robots [5]. Group 2: Diverse Robot Types and Applications - The types of robots will be highly diverse, including industrial robots, service robots, drones, autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, and household robots, covering various applications from manufacturing to healthcare, agriculture, transportation, defense, and space exploration [8]. Group 3: Component Demand Surge - The explosive growth in the robotics industry will create significant opportunities for upstream component suppliers, with projections indicating the need for 5.7 billion cameras, 27 billion motors, 41 billion bearings, and 1.25 million ExaFLOPS of edge computing capacity by 2050 [9]. - The demand for rare earth magnets and battery capacity will also see substantial increases, with projections of 170 million tons of rare earth magnets and 26 terawatt-hours of battery capacity required [9]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The demand surge will present major business opportunities for suppliers of motors, bearings, rare earth materials, cameras, sensors, AI chips, and batteries [11]. - Small drones and low-altitude robotic systems are identified as the most promising investment areas, driven by ease of navigation, lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the maturation of regulatory frameworks [11]. Group 5: China's Competitive Advantage - China demonstrates a clear competitive advantage in manufacturing capabilities, control over rare earth materials, and policy support, with expectations that its leading position will continue to expand over the next decade [4][16]. - By 2025, investments in robotics and drone sectors in China are expected to exceed $30 billion, with AI-related financing reaching $260 billion, highlighting the significant role of Chinese companies in these markets [15]. - China is projected to account for approximately 26% of global robot sales by 2050, with even higher shares in industrial robots and drones [16].

Core Insights - The market is entering an unprecedented "bubble era" characterized by rapid alternation between prosperity and recession, driven by extreme expectations surrounding AI technology [1] - Historical patterns show that major technological leaps have consistently led to large-scale asset bubbles, with the current AI revolution being supported by government initiatives [1][2] - The report indicates that while the market shows typical bubble characteristics by 2025, core U.S. tech stocks have not yet reached extreme instability levels seen during the 1990s internet bubble [1] Government Support and Bubble Dynamics - Historical connections exist between major technological changes and asset bubbles, with past examples including the railway stocks in the 19th century and the tech bubble of the late 1990s [2] - Unlike previous bubbles, the current AI bubble benefits from strong government backing, which provides ample funding and higher policy tolerance, extending the bubble's growth cycle [5] - Geopolitical competition has intensified countries' commitments to AI, further reinforcing the bubble's resilience [5] Market Volatility and Expectations - The current market volatility is attributed to the "expectation gap" surrounding AI technology, where the promise of transformative change contrasts with the slower-than-expected realization of that change [6] - This expectation gap leads to frequent swings in market sentiment between extreme optimism and cautious skepticism [6][7] - The volatility driven by technological expectations is more sudden and rapid compared to traditional market cycles, rendering conventional forecasting models ineffective [7] Bubble Risk Indicators - Bank of America has developed a bubble risk indicator based on four key asset price characteristics: returns, volatility, momentum, and fragility [8] - A notable feature of this indicator is that volatility increases as prices rise, contrary to typical market behavior, indicating potential extreme positions driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) [8] - While the overall U.S. stock market and core tech stocks have not shown typical bubble instability, certain segments are already exhibiting bubble characteristics [11] Unique Risks and Market Concentration - The current AI bubble faces unique risks due to its unprecedented scale, with market concentration at historical highs, exemplified by Nvidia's market cap exceeding that of any European country [20] - If Nvidia were to be valued at the peak P/E ratio of Cisco in 2000, its market cap could reach $20.8 trillion, highlighting the potential for significant market corrections based on forward earnings expectations [22] - Predictions suggest that AI spending could reach $3-4 trillion annually by 2030, with long-term estimates reaching $5 trillion, but there are concerns about the overestimation of AI's productivity potential [22] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests a counterintuitive investment strategy during bubble periods: diversification may increase risk, while concentrated holdings in leading assets combined with cash hedges are recommended [23] - Historical data indicates that assets at the forefront of bubbles tend to outperform until the bubble bursts, making diversification a risky approach [23] - The report also notes that during previous bubbles, the center of the bubble often outperformed global markets, which may contradict the notion of an impending peak in the "American exceptionalism" theme by 2025 [25] Conclusion on Market Outlook - While timing the market remains challenging, the eventual bursting of the AI bubble appears inevitable, with tightening financial conditions identified as a significant risk factor [27] - High volatility is expected to persist, keeping the market fragile, while ongoing debates about AI's future will continue to elevate uncertainty and instability [27]

一份SK海力士内部分析文件意外曝光，揭示了全球存储芯片市场面临的严峻供需失衡。该文件显示，除HBM和SOCAMM外， 标准DRAM的供应紧张将持续到2028年，这一预测比瑞银此前预计的2027年一季度更为严峻。 据社交平台X用户@BullsLab上周分享的截图，SK海力士认为标准DRAM的产能增长将受到严重制约。供应商库存正被消耗至最 低水平，而生产产能相比以往上升周期预计增长有限。 这一供需格局将对全球科技产业链产生深远影响。据华尔街见闻此前文章，瑞银预测今年四季度DDR合约价将环比上涨35%， 2026年一季度将进一步上涨30%。苹果等科技巨头也将面临成本压力，其与三星、SK海力士的长期供应协议将于2026年1月到 期。 人工智能需求激增成为推动这轮"超级周期"的核心动力。SK海力士预计，AI服务器市场份额将从2025年的38%飙升至2030年的 53%，带动DRAM需求实现24%的强劲增长。 即便利用现有厂房进行技术转换也面临挑战。无论是DDR4停产转向DDR5，还是NAND制程转换为DRAM生产，都需要相当长 的调整周期。这使得短期内通过产能调配缓解供需矛盾变得困难。 与此同时，供应商库存水平正急剧下 ...

然而，这并非一场疾风骤雨式的抛售。为了不惊扰正处于高位的日本股市，日本央行制定了一份长 达"一个世纪"的退出计划。 截至9月底，日本央行持有的ETF市值高达83万亿日元（约5340亿美元），而根据其每年仅出售3300亿 日元（账面价值）的计划推算，清空这笔庞大的库存大约需要112年。 这标志着日本央行长达十余年的激进资产购买计划，正式进入了历史性的转折点。 那个曾被戏称为日股"榜一大哥"的超级买家，终于要开始变现离场了。 12月15日，据彭博社援引知情人士消息，日本央行（BOJ）可能最早将于下个月（明年1月）启动出售 其持有的交易所交易基金（ETF）计划。 近年来日本股市大幅上涨，使得ETF持仓的市值急剧增长。日本央行ETF的账面价值37万亿日元对应83 万亿日元的市值，意味着存在巨额未实现收益。 按照每年3300亿日元账面价值的出售节奏，如果保持不变，完全清仓将需要约112年时间。这一超长周 期反映了央行持仓规模的庞大以及其对避免市场冲击的极度谨慎态度。 知情人士称，日本央行希望将出售对市场的影响降到最低，如同其在2000年代处置问题银行股票时的做 法。那次股票出售历时约十年，于今年7月完全完成，期间并未对 ...

鲍威尔在12月议息会议后的表态被市场解读为鹰派信号，然而，瑞银最新报告显示，市场可能存在过度 解读之嫌，而即将公布的就业和CPI数据将为1月降息提供关键判断依据。 鲍威尔还强调，FOMC将"需要谨慎评估"受政府停摆影响的数据，特别是住户调查数据可能存在技术性 扭曲。但他并未表示将完全忽视这些数据，而是强调需要仔细分析以提取有效信号。 报告指出，市场目前对1月降息的隐含概率相对较低，但如果本周数据证实劳动力市场持续疲软而通胀 压力可控，FOMC可能会重新考虑更加宽松的政策立场。正如鲍威尔所言，他希望"通胀得到控制，重 新回落到2%，同时希望劳动力市场保持强劲"。 劳动力市场疲软仍是焦点，关键在于失业率 据追风交易台，瑞银的Jonathan Pingle团队最近发布报告提到，鲍威尔对某些数据持"审慎"态度的表 态，主要针对受政府停摆影响的住户调查数据质量问题，而非对所有经济数据的否定。此前，鲍威尔在 新闻发布会上明确表示，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）尚未就1月会议做出任何决定，并强调政策制 定将依赖于即将公布的数据。 本周二将同时发布10月和11月两个月的非农报告，这一罕见安排将为FOMC提供更全面的劳动力市场 ...

美联储新推出的储备管理购买（RMPs）计划，配合美国财政部的债券发行策略调整，正在产生类似量化宽松（QE） 的市场效应。 美联储的储备管理购买计划在技术层面并非直接的量化宽松，因为央行并未直接从市场移除久期供给。但该计划通过 购买短期国库券，为财政部调整发行结构创造了空间。 该行认为，这里的关键变量在于美国财政部。美联储的入场购买短债，使得财政部可以顺势增加短债发行，同时减少 净中长期债券的供应。 因为美联储实际上吸纳了新增的短债供给，这使得作为美债市场"私营部门持有比例"的短债份额保持不变 甚至略有下降。 美银指出，美联储的RMP为财政部提供了弹药，使其能够通过发行管理来制造"QE效应"。据研报，为了具体化这一 影响，美银对2026日历年（CY26） 的资金流向进行了详细测算，数字非常惊人： 美联储买盘：预计美联储全年的短债购买总额将达到5600亿美元，包括3800亿美元来自RMP操作；1800亿 美元来自MBS（抵押贷款支持证券）的本金再投资。 12月15日，据追风交易台消息，美银在最新研报中称，如果是单独的RMP，那并不等同于QE；但如果将美联储的购 买行动与美国财政部的发债策略结合来看，这就是一套标准 ...

Core Insights - The transition of artificial intelligence from the digital realm to the physical world is expected to create a global robotics hardware market worth up to $25 trillion by 2050, driven by advancements in AI technology [1][4]. Market Forecast - According to Morgan Stanley's global robotics model, global robotics hardware sales are projected to surge from approximately $100 billion in 2025 to $500 billion by 2030, reaching $9 trillion by 2040 and $25 trillion by 2050 [1][5]. - By 2050, it is estimated that 1.4 billion robots will be sold globally, with a total of 6.5 billion robots in operation [5]. Robotics Diversity - The types of robots will be highly diverse, including industrial robots, service robots, drones, autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, and household robots, covering various applications from manufacturing to healthcare, agriculture, transportation, defense, and space exploration [8]. Component Demand - The explosive growth of the robotics industry will create significant opportunities for upstream component suppliers. By 2050, the demand for key components will include 5.7 billion cameras, 27 billion motors, 41 billion bearings, and 1.25 million ExaFLOPS of edge computing capacity, among others [9][11]. Investment Opportunities - The demand surge will present major business opportunities for suppliers of motors, bearings, rare earth materials, cameras, sensors, AI chips, and batteries. Small drones and low-altitude robotic systems are identified as the most promising investment areas due to factors such as ease of navigation, government prioritization following lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the maturation of regulatory frameworks [11]. China's Competitive Advantage - China is showing a clear leading advantage in the robotics sector, particularly in manufacturing capabilities, control of rare earth materials, and policy support. The country is expected to maintain and expand its leading position over the next decade [4][15]. - By 2050, China is projected to account for approximately 26% of global robot sales, with even higher shares in industrial robots and drones. The country dominates the humanoid robot supply chain, holding a 63% share in the "body" segment [16]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that manufacturing capabilities will become the core competitive advantage in the era of embodied intelligence, contrasting with the previous focus on software and algorithms in the digital AI era. Data, software, manufacturing, and hardware will form a recursive cycle that defines and promotes each other [16].