白银大概率避免关税，或将面临价格修正 美国关键矿产232条款关税调查结果预计将于本周六(1月10日)公布，这一决定将对Comex白银和铂族金 属价格产生重大市场影响。 追风交易台消息，1月8日，花旗Kenny Hu研究团队认为，不征收关税的情况下，金属将从美国流出至 其他地区，缓解当前极度紧张的市场状况并压低伦敦现货价格。 而在关税情景下，将存在约15天的实施窗口，这会诱发"抢运美国"的短暂行为，从而在征税前推动美国 基准定价和交易所期货溢价(EFP)进一步上涨，而在征税后进口下降，届时非美金属的供给才会改善、 伦敦现货价格压力缓解。 调查结果原定于2025年10月12日提交，特朗普总统有90天时间采取行动，这意味着截止日期约为1月10 日(本周六)。然而花旗认为，考虑到涉及的商品数量众多，特朗普总统的行动可能会无限期推迟，这样 一来，在此期间银价和铂族金属的价格很可能会继续上涨。 截至1月7日，EFPs定价显示市场预期铂金关税税率约为12.5%，钯金约7%，白银约5.5%。这些隐含税 率在高度波动中反映了市场的不确定性。 （EFPs定价的预期关税税率） 由于美国对进口白银严重依赖，花旗研究团队倾向于白银不征 ...

铜价的疯狂上涨迫使高盛不得不重新审视其短期预测，但这家华尔街巨头依然认为，一旦美国关税靴子 落地，供需基本面的引力将再次发挥作用。 据追风交易台消息，高盛大宗商品研究Eoin Dinsmore分析师团队1月8日发布的最新研报显示，铜价在 过去一个多月内经历了剧烈波动，从11月底的不到11000美元/吨飙升至1月6日的13387美元高点，涨幅 高达22%。面对这一走势，高盛承认价格已经超出了其认为的约11400美元/吨的公允基本面水平。 然而，这种"超涨"并非没有理由。高盛指出，投资者资金的大量涌入以及美国以外（ex-US）市场的低 库存，为铜价增添了显著的"稀缺溢价"。更重要的是，市场对美国将对铜征收关税的预期，导致金属被 大量吸入美国市场进行囤积。基于此，高盛决定将2026年上半年的LME铜价预测从之前的11525美元/吨 上调至12750美元/吨。 但投资者不应被眼前的繁荣冲昏头脑。高盛明确表示，不认为13000美元以上的价格能够持续。该行维 持2026年四季度11200美元/吨的预测不变，并预计在二季度将出现价格回调。 "过热"宏观叙事与AI热潮的双重驱动 高盛分析指出，推动本轮铜价上涨主要有三大主题： ...

Core Viewpoint - XReal, a Chinese smart glasses manufacturer, has completed a $100 million funding round, achieving a valuation of over $1 billion, amidst increasing competition in the smart glasses market [1] Group 1: Funding and Valuation - XReal has successfully raised $100 million in a new funding round from supply chain partners and other undisclosed supporters [1] - The company's valuation has surpassed $1 billion following this funding round [1] Group 2: Product Development and Partnerships - XReal has announced the release of two new glasses products at the CES event, including an upgraded entry-level model [1] - The company is expanding its collaboration with Alphabet, Google's parent company, on the Android XR smart glasses project, which is progressing as planned [1][2] - The collaboration with Google is set to launch in 2026, focusing on combining XReal's expertise in optical modules and chips with Google's strengths in AI and operating systems [2] Group 3: Market Competition - XReal faces intense competition from tech giants, with Meta leading the market with its AI-enabled Ray-Ban glasses and Apple expected to launch its first smart glasses this year [4] - Meta has introduced a high-end model priced at $799, while Apple has shifted focus from its Vision Pro headset to developing AI glasses similar to Meta's offerings [4] - XReal's CEO has criticized the Vision Pro for its high price and weight, asserting that XReal can provide a similar experience at a more affordable price [4] Group 4: Industry Trends and Innovations - Analysts believe that the combination of edge AI and XR devices could lead to a significant industry breakthrough [3] - Various companies showcased different forms of smart wearable devices at CES, including Razer's concept headphones with built-in cameras and Motorola's camera-equipped pendant [5] - Razer's CEO suggested that headphones might appeal more to some consumers, but XReal's CEO remains confident that glasses are the optimal solution for this technology [5][6]

Core Insights - A recent study published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) indicates that patients who stop using anti-obesity medications will regain their original weight within two years, losing the associated health benefits such as improved heart health, cholesterol levels, and blood pressure [1][2] - The analysis, which included data from over 9,000 participants, highlights the rapid weight rebound and deterioration of health indicators occurring even before full weight restoration [1][2] Group 1: Weight Rebound and Health Implications - The study analyzed 37 research studies and found that participants lost an average of 8.3 kg during treatment but would regain their original weight in less than 21 months after stopping the medication [2] - Beneficial effects on heart health, cholesterol, and blood pressure are expected to diminish within 18 months post-medication [2] - The research emphasizes that weight loss through medication is faster but leads to quicker rebound compared to behavioral weight loss programs [2] Group 2: Long-term Intervention Necessity - Experts stress the need for ongoing interventions to maintain weight loss results, especially as millions may stop using these medications in the coming years [3] - The study's findings align with emerging views on the limitations and advantages of such medications [2][3] Group 3: Nutritional Risks and Muscle Loss - A separate study published in Obesity Reviews indicates that users of weight loss medications may face nutritional deficiencies and muscle loss due to inadequate dietary guidance [4] - Up to 40% of the weight lost may consist of lean body mass, including muscle, highlighting the risks of unmonitored medication use [4] - The lack of nutritional support for users who purchase medications privately raises concerns about replacing one health issue with another [4]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices rebounded on Thursday, rising over 3% to a two-week high, driven by concerns over supply disruptions from Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran despite an increase in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Movement - Brent crude futures settled at $61.99 per barrel, up $2.03 or 3.4%, marking the highest closing price since December 24 of the previous year [3]. - WTI crude futures increased by $1.77 or 3.2%, reaching $57.76 per barrel [3]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Investors are evaluating the situation in Venezuela, where the U.S. plans to sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to domestic refiners, which may take years to significantly impact the Gulf Coast [1]. - A drone attack on a tanker heading to Russia in the Black Sea and Iraq's move to nationalize the West Qurna 2 oil field due to U.S. sanctions on Lukoil are contributing to supply risk concerns [1]. - Iran is facing nationwide protests due to economic difficulties, leading to internet blackouts, further complicating the supply landscape [1].

美国总统特朗普最近的表态引发美国军工股巨震。特朗普威胁限制国防承包商派息和回购后，军工巨头周三全线收跌。他作 出大幅提高军费开支的表态后，多只军工股周四又强劲反弹，体现出投资者押注美国政府可能创纪录的国防预算将为行业带 来更多订单。 据新华社，特朗普7日周三晚间在社交媒体发文说，2027财年的美国军费应从1万亿美元提升至1.5万亿美元。这意味着，美国 的军费支出将较今年创纪录的9010亿美元预算激增逾50%。特朗普当时称，此举将帮助美国打造"梦想军队"，确保国家在"动 荡不安、危机四伏"的时期保持安全。 特朗普的上述巨额军费提议引发美国媒体人警示。据新华社，福克斯新闻频道前主持人塔克·卡尔森7日表示，特朗普增加军 费至1.5万亿美元显示，美国可能正在为一场"世界大战"作准备。这种规模的预算显示出"一个正在准备进行全球或地区战争的 国家所具有的特征"。 军工股的剧烈波动凸显特朗普第二任期内政策表态对市场的直接冲击力。从扣押俄罗斯油轮到突袭委内瑞拉，再到将动用美 军控制格陵兰岛列为选项，特朗普政府越来越多地动用军队实现外交政策目标，国防板块随之正经历新一轮重估。美股国防 板块过去12个月表现强劲，iShares美 ...

特朗普就美联储主席人选表示："我心里已经有决定了"。（纽约时报） 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

富国银行首席股票策略师Ohsung Kwon预计，若关税被裁决推翻，标普500指数成分股公司2026年的息税前利润可能较去年水平提升约2.4%。然 而，分析师也指出，即使法院裁定关税违法，白宫仍可能援引其他法律授权重新实施类似的贸易限制措施，这意味着政策不确定性将在长期内持 续存在。 市场普遍认为，短期反应路径相对明确：取消关税将减轻消费者成本压力并改善企业盈利能力，对股市构成支撑；但同时，此举会削弱政府的一 项重要收入来源，加剧联邦赤字担忧，从而对美债市场形成利空。 美国最高法院即将对特朗普推出的全面关税计划的合法性作出最终裁决，此判决结果将对美股及美债市场构成重大考验。分析师普遍预计，若法 院裁定关税违法，股市有望因企业利润预期改善而获得提振，但美债市场可能因财政赤字担忧重燃以及美联储后续政策路径更趋复杂而面临抛售 压力。 最高法院已将美东时间本周五定为意见发布日，这意味着裁决可能最早于本周出炉。自关税政策引发市场震荡以来，标普500指数已从低点反弹约 40%并创下新高，此轮涨势主要由人工智能投资热潮以及特朗普政府对部分关税的回撤所推动。 股市受益板块分化明显 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 当地时间1月7日，美国总统特朗普在接受《纽约时报》采访时称，他希望未来能访问委内瑞拉。 特朗 普在接受采访时表示，他预计美国将"长期控制"委内瑞拉，并从该国庞大的石油储备中获取石油，并坚 称委内瑞拉的临时政府"给予了美国一切我们认为必要的支持"。（环球时报） ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that after a potential slowdown in the AI boom, "middle-class consumption" is expected to drive the bull market in US stocks by 2026 [1] - The focus should shift to companies benefiting from the expansion of middle-class consumption, particularly those selling "want-to-have" products such as luxury apparel retailers, home goods manufacturers, travel operators, and casinos [1] - The negative impacts of Trump's tariff policies are expected to fade, alongside a stabilizing labor market and tax refunds from previous legislation, which will boost consumer confidence and spending capacity [1] Group 2 - A structural rotation from growth stocks to value stocks is underway as AI-themed trading valuations reach historical highs, with funds moving from overheated tech sectors to value stocks linked to economic recovery and middle-class consumption [2] - Economists predict that the US economy will grow by 2.1% in 2026, driven by consumer spending, which is guiding funds towards value stocks that have lagged behind [2] - Stocks related to middle-income consumer spending are particularly attractive, with value stocks expected to outperform the market in early 2026 [2] Group 3 - Dick's Sporting Goods has emerged as an early beneficiary of the market's shift towards "middle-class consumption," with its stock price rising by 6.1% in the first four trading days of 2026, reversing a 13% decline from the previous year [2] - Goldman Sachs has included Dick's Sporting Goods in its favored "middle-class consumption" portfolio, which also includes Burlington Stores and Best Buy, and is optimistic about sectors like healthcare, materials, and essential consumer goods [3]