Group 1 - The domestic market interest rates showed a trend of short-term strength and long-term weakness last week, with short-term rates rising due to increased funding demand near the end of October, while overall financing demand growth declined, leading to a decrease in medium- and long-term rates [1] - As of October 31, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight, 1-week, and 3-month periods were reported at 1.321%, 1.439%, and 1.596%, respectively, showing increases of 0.1, 2.5, and 0.2 basis points compared to October 24 [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased the amount of reverse repos to stabilize the peak funding demand at the end of the month, conducting a total of 20,680 billion yuan in reverse repos while 8,672 billion yuan matured, releasing 12,008 billion yuan in liquidity [1] Group 2 - For the upcoming week, domestic market interest rates are expected to show short-term weakness and long-term strength, as short-term funding demand is anticipated to decrease, leading to a potential drop in short-term rates [2] - The easing of China-U.S. trade tensions is expected to restore market confidence, and as the year-end approaches, medium- and long-term rates are likely to strengthen slightly [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after a rally, with small-cap stocks gaining strength while large-cap stocks weakened [1] - Major indices showed divergence, with the STAR Market 50 index leading the decline at 3.2%, while the CSI 1000 index led the gains at 1.18% [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The October manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating contraction due to pre-holiday demand release and external factors [2] - Production and new orders indices also declined, with production at 49.7% (down 2.2 points) and new orders at 48.8% (down 0.9 points) [2] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries maintained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [2] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second consecutive cut [3] - The Fed's statement indicated a moderate expansion in economic activity and persistent high inflation, with employment growth slowing [3][4] - Despite hawkish signals from Powell, there remains room for further rate cuts, which could lead to a return to a low-interest-rate environment globally [4] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of "stagflation," with employment risks increasing, but the likelihood of significant inflation remains low [4] - China's economy has been stabilizing since Q4 of last year, supporting the potential for RMB appreciation and increased foreign capital inflow [4][5] - Overall, despite recent market adjustments, the fundamentals remain supportive, with improving corporate earnings and a favorable outlook for the manufacturing sector [5]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Trade - China's economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5% [2] - GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, with an average of 5.2% [2] - Domestic fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year during the same period, indicating steady domestic demand [2] - Exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year from January to September, aided by the easing of US-China trade tensions [2][3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - A meeting between the US and Chinese leaders on October 30 resulted in the cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a one-year suspension of a 24% tariff [3] - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns and increased risk appetite, contributing to a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut has decreased, with the current RRR at 9% [4] - The likelihood of further RRR cuts this year is low due to the current economic conditions and the easing of trade tensions [4] - The central bank has resumed trading in government bonds, which serves as an alternative to RRR cuts for liquidity management [4] - Increased operations in reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) indicate a compensatory measure for the market [4] - Overall, the expectation of monetary easing is diminishing, leading to a potential decline in government bond futures prices in the fourth quarter [4]

Core Viewpoint - After eight consecutive days of gains, lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant pullback on October 31, with the main LC2601 contract closing at 80,780 yuan/ton, down 3.42% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices was driven by a substantial increase in energy storage battery orders, ongoing inventory depletion, and slower-than-expected resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxia project [2][4] - As prices rise, the willingness of downstream buyers to restock at high prices diminishes, leading to weaker spot transactions and limited inventory depletion [2][4] - Current lithium carbonate market conditions remain tight, with no signs of weakening in the short term, despite a slight decrease in production [4][5] Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - On October 31, the LC2601 contract saw a reduction in open interest by 22,400 contracts, but from October 16 to October 30, open interest increased by 343,000 contracts, reaching 555,000 contracts [3] - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose from 72,940 yuan/ton to a peak of 84,940 yuan/ton during this period, reflecting a more than 16% increase [3] - Analysts noted that as prices exceeded 80,000 yuan/ton, market divergence increased, and the willingness to hedge in the industry rose, leading to a decrease in purchasing intent from downstream buyers [3][6] Inventory and Production Insights - Since October, lithium carbonate futures inventory has significantly decreased, dropping from 42,379 contracts on October 9 to 27,621 contracts, a reduction of approximately 34.8% [4] - Weekly inventory reduction has slowed, with only 1,078 contracts removed last week compared to previous weeks where reductions exceeded 2,000 contracts [4] - As of October 30, lithium carbonate weekly production was approximately 21,000 tons, a slight decrease of 228 tons week-on-week, primarily from spodumene sources [4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue focusing on the resumption timeline of CATL's Jiangxia project, which could significantly impact prices [5] - If the project resumes production earlier than anticipated, there may be further downward pressure on prices; conversely, delays could lead to price increases due to ongoing inventory depletion [5][7] - Analysts predict that despite potential price adjustments, the market will remain supported by strong demand, particularly in the battery sector, with production expected to maintain an upward trend in November [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the new tax policy on gold by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration aims to guide gold trading towards standardization and regulation through VAT incentives, which is expected to lower transaction costs and enhance market efficiency [2][3]. Group 1: Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of gold, eliminating double taxation and reducing transaction costs, thereby enhancing market liquidity and price discovery efficiency [2]. - The policy is expected to strengthen the core position of exchanges like the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange, promoting a more standardized and transparent gold trading environment, which could enhance China's international competitiveness in the gold market [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The policy comes at a time when the gold market is experiencing overheating, with international gold prices rising significantly from $2,600 to nearly $4,400 per ounce since 2025, a more than 50% increase [3]. - Analysts note that the recent decline in gold prices from historical highs is attributed to profit-taking, easing geopolitical tensions, and a cooling of risk aversion, suggesting that the market has largely absorbed previous bullish factors [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, the long-term upward trend remains supported by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and anticipated Fed rate cuts, indicating that gold prices are likely to continue rising [4][5]. - The new tax policy is expected to attract more investment into regulated markets, potentially supporting gold prices in the long run, while market participants should remain aware of variables such as the Fed's rate-cutting timeline [4].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Market Overview - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is experiencing a downward trend, with a decline of 2.65% last Friday, reaching 15,085 CNY/ton, and a cumulative drop of 1.63% for the week [2] - Currently, it is the peak season for rubber tapping, with stable weather conditions in major production areas like Hainan and Yunnan, and limited impact from Typhoon "Maidum," leading to a quick recovery in rubber production [2] - The production of new rubber is steadily increasing due to high prices, with Southeast Asia also in a full tapping cycle, resulting in stable growth in output from Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam [2] Group 2: Import and Inventory Dynamics - The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China from January to September reached 6.115 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with natural rubber imports at 4.7172 million tons, up 19.65% [3] - The inventory reduction pace at Qingdao Port is slowing down, with signs of potential accumulation as new rubber comes to market and imports arrive [3] - Overall, the inventory levels across the supply chain are exerting strong pressure on rubber prices [3] Group 3: Tire Industry Demand - The domestic tire industry is facing weak demand, characterized by structural differentiation and overall fatigue, influenced by seasonal declines in end-user demand and production adjustments by some companies [4] - The capacity utilization rate for domestic semi-steel tire sample enterprises is at 73.4%, showing a slight week-on-week increase but a significant year-on-year decline of 5.90% [4] - The demand for all-steel tires, closely related to heavy trucks and infrastructure projects, is expected to remain weak due to insufficient real estate and construction project commencements, further suppressing all-latex demand [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The natural rubber market is currently characterized by high supply pressure and insufficient demand support, leading to a bearish fundamental outlook [4] - Prices are expected to continue weakly oscillating amid macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations and industry realities [4]

这一政策受到市场广泛关注，多位期货分析师认为，黄金税收新政不仅将降低交易成本、提升市场效 率，还有助于抑制投机、扶持实体经济，同时为黄金价格走势注入新的变量。 "黄金税收新政的核心在于通过差异化的税收安排，区分投资性与非投资性的黄金用途，从而消除重复 征税、降低交易成本。"大有期货贵金属分析师段恩典向期货日报记者表示，该政策显著降低了在上海 黄金交易所和上海期货交易所内进行标准黄金交易与实物交割的成本，有效提升了市场的流动性和价格 发现的效率。他表示，清晰的税收安排巩固了交易所的核心地位，推动黄金交易走向标准化和阳光化， 从长远看将增强中国黄金市场的国际竞争力与定价影响力。 正信期货贵金属分析师蒲祖林告诉记者，黄金税收新政不仅引导资金流向场内规范交易，还通过严格处 罚机制防范虚开发票等行为，净化市场生态。他认为，新政强化了交易所在税收上的优势，能吸引更多 投资者选择黄金ETF、金条等金融化产品，进而推动黄金从消费品向金融资产转型。 日前，财政部和国家税务总局联合发布《关于黄金有关税收政策的公告》，旨在通过增值税优惠政策引 导黄金交易向标准化、规范化方向发展。 对此，王静表示认同，并补充称，10月下旬以来金价回 ...

上周，多晶硅期货连续5个交易日收涨。10月31日，主力PS2601合约报收56410元／吨，周度涨幅为 7.43%。 中信建投期货分析师刘佳奇也认为，短期来看，上述消息虽能提振市场情绪，但对多晶硅价格的影响有 限，后市仍需关注"反内卷"的相关动态。中信建投期货团队预测，如果17家光伏龙头企业的收储工作进 展顺利，那么多晶硅承债式收购将使被收购方出清43万～48万吨产能。在类似自律框架安排下，基金平 台公司成员会主动出清约100万吨产能，最终实现140万吨以上的产能出清，留下约200万吨产能。 据了解，当前多晶硅市场仍处于供需错配格局。供应方面，据PVinfolink的数据，9月，全球多晶硅产量 为13.18万吨，月度排产量重新攀升至13万吨上方，预计10月全球排产量为13.34万吨，环比小幅增加。 需求方面，自"5·31"抢装潮后，光伏新增装机量开始下降，6月至9月光伏新增装机量在10GW/月波动。 数据显示，9月，光伏新增装机量为9.66GW，环比增加31.40%，同比则减少53.75%。库存方面，截至 10月30日，多晶硅期、现总库存为30.103万吨。 刘佳奇认为，后期多晶硅市场将呈供需双减状态。在枯水 ...

Core Insights - The ultimate realm of trading is simplicity, as demonstrated by Zhou Chengji over 25 years of experience in the futures market [1] - Zhou emphasizes that the essence of trading lies in merging with the market rather than relying solely on technical skills [4] Trading Career - Zhou began trading in 2001, experiencing a cycle of earning, losing, and working to rebuild capital for 13 years [3] - A turning point occurred in 2014 when he turned a 10,000 yuan investment in silver into 30,000 yuan within a month, leading to a "stair-step profit" strategy [3] - From 2014 to 2019, he focused on short-term trading, and post-2020, he shifted to swing trading, achieving a state of alignment with market movements [3] Core Philosophy - Zhou believes that understanding one's own personality and the market's rhythm is crucial for successful trading [4] - He identifies human emotions, such as greed and fear, as the biggest enemies in trading [4] Trading System - Zhou's trading system is based on wave theory, which he considers a foundational tool rather than a secret technique [5] - He aims to capture the most profitable segments of market waves, using leverage and sound money management to achieve significant profits [5] - For example, he predicted that gold would rise from $3,350 to $4,300 per ounce in 2025, ultimately reaching $4,390 [5] Entry and Risk Management - Zhou advocates for entering trades during pullbacks at support levels, with strict stop-loss measures in place [6] - He employs a multi-account diversification strategy, allocating 20%-30% of capital to each account to mitigate risk [6] Macro and Technical Analysis - Zhou views macroeconomic factors as tools to enhance trading rather than as primary decision-making criteria [7] - He emphasizes trusting technical signals over macro news when they diverge, using macro data as an accelerator only during significant market movements [7] Insights and Mindset - Zhou's ultimate realization is to discard the complexity of indicators and focus on cognitive understanding and market perspective [8] - He encourages traders to reflect on their goals and capacity to manage wealth responsibly [8] - His journey from losing trades to becoming a champion in a global competition illustrates that successful trading relies on long-term skill development and a strong mindset [8]

Core Viewpoint - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) announced on October 31 that it will revise the "Peanut Kernel Futures Business Rules" to enhance the effectiveness of the futures market in serving the real economy and to promote the functionality of the products [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Regulatory Changes**: The revisions include three main changes: 1. Wet peanuts are prohibited from participating in delivery, with specific inspection methods referenced from the "Sensory Inspection Methods for Wet Peanuts" (T/CGTA10-2025) [1] 2. The nature of the standard warehouse receipt will change from general to non-general [1] 3. The delivery process for vehicles (ships) will be improved [1]