Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the trading fee for the tin futures contract SN2601, effective from December 17, with a new fee set at 6 yuan per hand [1]. Group 1 - The trading fee for the tin futures contract SN2601 will be adjusted to 6 yuan per hand starting from December 17 [1].

Group 1 - The core activity focuses on enhancing the service capabilities of futures companies to better support the real economy, particularly in the context of high precious metal prices [1] - The event highlights the shift from traditional hedging to refined management practices among local enterprises, emphasizing the importance of training in hedging business [1][2] - The Hunan Nonferrous Metals Association and the Hunan Futures Association have been promoting hedging training competitions for three consecutive years to improve risk management and practical skills in the industry [1] Group 2 - Hunan Mineral Resources Group, a leading enterprise in the local nonferrous and ferrous metals sector, has a complete production chain from exploration to delivery, with subsidiaries like Hunan Gold and Hunan Silver being publicly listed [2] - The company produces 4 to 5 tons of gold annually from its own mines and purchases an additional 50 to 60 tons, involving multiple companies in the production and delivery process [2] Group 3 - The rising gold prices have concentrated profits at the mining end, while the refining and smelting sectors receive limited benefits, primarily earning processing fees [3] - Hunan Gold Jewelry Company, a subsidiary, focuses on gold refining and processing, with significant revenue coming from the price difference between recovered gold and the Shanghai Gold Exchange benchmark [3] Group 4 - Following the gold tax reform in November, the cost of non-investment gold products has increased, while investment gold bars have seen a sales increase of over 200% month-on-month [4] - The group has been engaged in hedging activities for over a decade, with a focus on gold, silver, lead, and zinc [4] Group 5 - The group employs a segmented hedging management approach, with each segment (mining, smelting, refining) conducting its own hedging activities [5] - The company aims to manage risks while achieving operational goals, adjusting its hedging strategies based on market conditions and price forecasts [5] Group 6 - The use of options in hedging strategies has been explored, allowing the company to lower transaction costs and potentially earn premiums [6] - The event indicates a growing recognition among enterprises of the importance of refined risk management using futures and options, which is becoming essential for maintaining operational safety amid price fluctuations [6]

在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第三期节目中，首创期货总经理助理孙伏鲲以"趋势、反 转与波动"三大维度为纲，系统性复盘2025年期货市场十大经典案例，深度拆解热门品种每一轮涨跌背 后的宏观推手、产业矛盾与资金博弈，为交易者勾勒出一幅清晰的市场认知地图。 以多晶硅为代表的新能源金属品种，上演了从"熊"到"雄"的逆转。在基本面供大于求、库存高企的背景 下，多晶硅行情反转主要源于"反内卷"政策驱动。后续需关注仓单注册进度，新仓单周度增量若大幅增 长，将缓解交割品紧张预期；相反，若仓单注册量低于预期，多空博弈可能加剧。中期来看，"反内 卷"政策若能明确产能上限或设立价格协调机制，多晶硅价格有望进一步上涨。 工业硅与碳酸锂同样受"反内卷"政策预期影响。工业硅当前估值较低，但产能过剩严重，消费端没有明 显驱动。碳酸锂则需关注供给弹性、需求预期以及行业成本情况。 "趋势之王"：宏观叙事与产业瓶颈共振 孙伏鲲表示，2025年的"趋势之王"是那些在宏观大势与产业深层矛盾共同作用下，走出持续性单边行情 的品种。 黄金价格在2025年超预期上涨。孙伏鲲认为，其上涨逻辑较为坚实：地缘冲突频发推升避险需求；美联 储降息改 ...

早上好，先来关注下地缘局势和特朗普的最新表态。 泰国军队称空袭柬埔寨两处军事目标 据央视新闻消息，泰国陆军第一军区13日在社交媒体发文说，当地时间13日16时09分，该军区陆军部队 联合空军对柬方两处军事目标实施空袭，成功摧毁一处弹药库和一处防空通信系统。 泰国海军发言人13日表示，海军舰队于当天凌晨在泰国湾开展军事行动，旨在削弱并遏制柬方在戈公省 一带的军事能力，保障泰国湾沿岸民众的生命与财产安全。 另据泰国国防部发言人及卫生部官员13日在有关泰柬边境局势的新闻发布会上通报，此轮泰柬冲突已造 成15名泰国士兵死亡、超过270名士兵受伤。截至当天上午，7名平民死亡，民众转移超26万人。 此外，当地时间12月13日下午，泰国总理阿努廷回应了马来西亚总理安瓦尔关于13日22时泰柬边境停火 的说法。 阿努廷表示，目前尚未收到相关消息，现在各种信息传播很多，建议以泰国军方发布的正式声明为准。 阿努廷还表示，目前尚未开始任何停火谈判，也还未到那个阶段。 此前，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上表示，他当天早上分别与泰国总理阿努廷和柬埔寨 首相洪玛奈通话，讨论两国边境冲突的最新情况。特朗普称，两国领导人已同意从当 ...

"中央经济工作会议将'坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场'置于明年重点任务首位。"华泰期货董事长赵 昌涛表示，期货行业将以此为导向，充分发挥期货市场在资源配置和风险管理中的专业功能，聚焦现代 化产业体系的风险管理需求，推动业务模式创新与服务升级，助力企业提升经营韧性、稳定市场供应， 为增强国内大循环内生动力提供扎实的金融工具支撑。 中信建投期货董事长王广学表示，将坚定融入国家战略，聚焦主责主业，更好发挥期货市场功能，丰富 产品与服务供给，帮助实体企业管理风险，成为实体企业和金融机构风险管理最可靠的合作伙伴和专业 管家。 中央经济工作会议于12月10日至11日在北京举行，会议全面总结了当前经济工作，深刻分析了国内外形 势，强调要更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，因地制宜发展新质生产力， 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，为明年我国经济发展指明了方向、明确了要求。 多家期货公司高管表示，期货行业将深刻把握会议确定的工作总基调，立足期货和衍生品专业优势，将 政策导向转化为"服务实体、创新发展、守牢底线"的务实行动，为经济社会高质量发展贡献坚实的期货 力量。 服务全国统一大市场建设，筑牢实体经济风险"防火 ...

围绕"枢纽"建设奋力谱写中国式现代化河南篇章 中国共产党河南省第十一届委员会第十次全体会议，于2025年11月28日至29日在郑州举行。会议审议通 过了《中共河南省委关于制定河南省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（简称河南"十五 五"规划建议），系统擎画了"十五五"河南经济社会发展蓝图。 随着中部地区加快崛起、黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展等国家战略深入实施，河南在"十五五"时期面 临前所未有的大好形势和机遇。国家扩大内需战略与全国统一大市场建设的双重驱动，为河南释放区位 交通枢纽、超大规模市场、完整产业体系、人力资源禀赋及深厚文化底蕴等综合优势提供了关键契机。 在此背景下，河南正通过强化"枢纽"与"支点"功能，深度融入服务全国统一大市场建设，进而提升在全 国发展格局中的能级与位势。期货日报记者就此采访了多位业内专家，聚焦河南枢纽经济提质路径，为 区域协同发展建言献策。 1.建设国家要素配置枢纽中心 推动要素资源配置是全国统一大市场建设的核心，它通过打破壁垒、促进要素自由流动和高效组合，直 接提升全要素生产率，为构建新发展格局和实现高质量发展奠定坚实基础。河南"十五五"规划建议提 出，深入推进要素市场 ...

Core Insights - The discussion focuses on the analysis of the 2025 futures market, highlighting ten classic cases that illustrate market trends, reversals, and volatility, providing traders with a clear understanding of market dynamics [2] Group 1: Trend Analysis - The "Trend King" for 2025 is identified as commodities that exhibit sustained single-direction trends due to macroeconomic forces and deep-seated industrial contradictions [3] - Gold prices unexpectedly surged in 2025, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical conflicts, changes in interest rates from the Federal Reserve, and ongoing central bank purchases reflecting a shift away from the US dollar [3] - Silver prices showed greater elasticity alongside gold, supported by tight circulating inventories and rising demand from emerging industries like photovoltaics, as well as favorable conditions from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3] Group 2: Reversal Analysis - The "Reversal King" is characterized by how policy expectations and market microstructures can significantly alter price trends, with coking coal exemplifying this dynamic through a "V" shaped price recovery influenced by "anti-involution" policies [5] - The price of polysilicon reversed from bearish to bullish primarily due to policy-driven changes, despite a backdrop of oversupply and high inventories [5] - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are also affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with industrial silicon facing severe overcapacity and lithium carbonate requiring attention to supply elasticity and demand forecasts [5] Group 3: Volatility Analysis - The "Volatility King" is crude oil, which experienced wide price fluctuations in 2025 due to the interplay of Federal Reserve monetary policy, US energy and trade policies, and geopolitical conflicts [6] - The supply surplus in the oil market is unlikely to change fundamentally, with geopolitical tensions remaining a primary driver of price volatility [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The analysis reveals that different market characteristics are driven by distinct underlying logic: trend markets are influenced by long-term narratives and solid industrial contradictions, reversal markets are catalyzed by strong policy expectations and unique market structures, while high-volatility markets are closely tied to unpredictable external shocks [7] - Understanding and differentiating these market types and their core drivers is essential for traders to identify opportunities and manage risks effectively [7]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a significant differentiation in maintenance schedules due to profit declines and overcapacity, breaking the traditional maintenance rhythm typically seen in the second and third quarters [1][2] - The maintenance ratio this year is notably higher than in previous years, directly linked to supply surplus caused by rapid capacity growth in certain products [1][2] Group 1: Maintenance Trends - The traditional maintenance period for the petrochemical industry is usually concentrated in the second and third quarters, with the fourth quarter expected to see increased operational loads; however, this year, profit declines have disrupted this pattern [1] - PX is one of the few products increasing operational loads despite the overall trend, with its operational load at a near five-year high due to improved fundamentals and favorable production profits [1] - In contrast, PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have seen operational loads decrease due to profit pressures, with PTA's operational load dropping to a lower-than-average level for the past five years [1][2] Group 2: Ethylene Glycol and Other Products - Ethylene glycol's maintenance logic is complex, with operational loads dropping from high levels due to maintenance of ethylene-based facilities, followed by a new wave of maintenance due to profit declines in gas-based facilities [2] - Seasonal maintenance patterns are observed across various chemical products, with significant maintenance occurring in methanol, PP, and PE, while PTA has seen increased maintenance and unplanned outages [2] Group 3: Profitability and Market Dynamics - Despite a decrease in PTA's operational load since November, its processing margin remains in the loss zone, indicating an imbalance in profit distribution within the industry [3] - New capacity in ethylene glycol has led to record low prices, and while recent production cuts have marginally improved the fundamentals, inventory pressures persist [3] - The overall decline in chemical product prices has led to compressed production profits, with potential for further maintenance if prices continue to drop excessively [3][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for chemical products suggests limited price rebound potential unless there is an unexpected contraction in supply or a change in inventory accumulation patterns [4] - The continuation of unplanned maintenance will depend on production profits and fundamental market conditions, which will dictate the year-end market trends for chemicals [4]

早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 银价暴跌，金价跳水 12日晚，现货白银价格盘中涨逾2%，再创历史新高。不过，美股盘中，现货白银突然跳水，一度跌超4%，纽约期银日内大跌5%。 截至发稿，现货白银价格收跌2.56%，现货黄金价格收涨0.44%。COMEX黄金期货收涨0.39%，本周累计上涨2.42%；COMEX白银期货收跌3.88%，本周 累计上涨5.59%。 消息面上，据媒体报道，甲骨文已将为OpenAI开发的部分数据中心完工日期从2027年推迟至2028年。这一消息叠加博通与甲骨文财报不及预期，投资者 对AI热潮的担忧再度加剧，美股科技股承压，多家AI概念的科技巨头股价纷纷下挫。继甲骨文股价周四暴跌后，博通股价也成为关注焦点，跌幅约为 10%。 | Sandisk Corporation | 214.38 | -11.27% | | --- | --- | --- | | US SNDK | | | | 博通 | 364.80 | -10.23% | | US AVGO | | | | 美光科技 | 245.33 | -5.08% | | us MU | | | | 甲骨文 | 192.21 | -3.34% ...

Market Overview - Silver prices experienced a significant drop after reaching a historical high, with a decline of over 4% during trading, while gold prices also fell sharply after touching $4,350 per ounce [4][5] - The recent performance of tech stocks in the U.S. has been negatively impacted by concerns over AI investments, particularly following disappointing earnings reports from Oracle and Broadcom [5][6] Silver and Gold Demand - The demand for silver in AI hardware and data centers is robust, with annual growth rates exceeding 20%, and projections suggest a 35% increase by 2026 [7] - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.2 billion in November, marking six consecutive months of inflows [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed a preference for maintaining a slightly tight monetary policy, citing persistent inflation above the 2% target [10][11] - The recent rate cuts have been met with opposition from some officials who advocate for a wait-and-see approach regarding further monetary easing [11][12] Tin Market Dynamics - Tin prices have surged, with the Shanghai tin price stabilizing above 330,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply concerns and positive macroeconomic sentiment [13][16] - Analysts indicate that the tin market is experiencing a tight supply situation, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and reduced imports from Myanmar [17][18] Long-term Outlook for Tin - The long-term outlook for tin suggests a potential easing of supply constraints by 2026, with expectations of increased production from Myanmar and a stabilization of geopolitical tensions [18] - The demand for tin is expected to grow, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, despite ongoing supply challenges [18]