文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 节前一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容。 （一）全国人大动态 ： 4 月 30 日，全国人大常委会表决通过民营经济促进法，该法将于 5 月 20 日 正式实施。 （二）总书记重要行程 ： 1 ） 4 月 29 日， 总书记在上海考察，并在上海"模速空间"大模型创新生 态社区调研，对上海积极发展人工智能取得的实效给予肯定。 2 ） 4 月 30 日，总书记主持召开部分 省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会，强调谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，要"要坚定不移办好 自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放"，"更加注重统筹发展和安全"，"把因地制宜发展新质生产 力摆在更加突出的战略位置"，"稳步推动共同富裕"等。 （三）发改委及财政部政策吹风 ： 1 ） 4 月 28 日 ， 国新办就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况举行发布会，发改委表示，" 提振消费方面 ，近期我们已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧 换新资金，前两批一共下达超过 ...

2、会议声明重点强调不确定性上升。 相比于3月，在经济依然稳健的基调上，着重体现了不确定性加剧的 变化。对于经济，虽然 "净出口的波动影响了数据"，但经济活动继续以稳健速度扩张。对于经济前景的不 确实性，从"增加（increased）"修改为"进一步增加（increased further）"，并且新增"高失业率和更高通胀 的风险已经上升"的判断。 3、鲍威尔的会后表态，一句话总结就是"现在很好，未来不知道，先等等看" ： 对于目前经济 ：1）净出口拖累1季度GDP，但不含库存和政府的私人国内最终购买（表征私人部门需求） 依然强劲。2）劳动力市场仍然稳固，大致处于平衡状态。3）受关税预期影响，短期通胀预期、消费者和 企业信心等软指标走弱，但与消费者支出等硬数据之间不是"强有力的联系"。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 一、5月FOMC会议："现在很好，未来不知道，先等等看" 1、暂停降息，符合预期。 FOMC维持联邦基金目标利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。所有 FOMC票委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in April, economic indicators will reflect changes influenced by external demand, with a potential state of "stable volume and weak price" expected in the economy [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Import Trends - Export resilience is indicated by a 7.3% year-on-year increase in container throughput at monitored Chinese ports as of April 27, compared to 8.9% in March [4] - Container shipping capacity from China to the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% in April, down from 19.1% in March, suggesting some downward pressure on direct exports to the U.S. [4] - U.S. imports are expected to rise, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in overall import value as of April 24, compared to 0.1% at the end of March [4][11] - Vietnam's imports in early April increased by 16.1% year-on-year, reflecting a "import grabbing" effect [4][11] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Investment - Retail sales growth is projected at around 5.3% in April, supported by the "trade-in for new" policy, with specific growth rates of 5.0% for dining and automotive sectors [5][13] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be 4.0% for January to April, with real estate investment declining by 10.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 9.0% [5][14] Group 3: Financial Indicators - New social financing in April is expected to be around 660 billion, an increase of 1 trillion compared to the same period last year, with a social financing stock growth rate of approximately 8.6% [6][17] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 7.2% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to grow by 2.1% [6][17] Group 4: Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to be around -3% year-on-year in April, influenced by declining prices of major commodities such as copper and crude oil [7][19] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be around -0.2% year-on-year, with food prices projected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month [8][18]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月 7 日"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"新闻发布会上： 央行潘行长公布了十项货币政策措施：①降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点；②阶段性将汽车金融公司、金 融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的 5% 调降为 0% ；③下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点；④下调结构货性货 币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点；⑤降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点；⑥增加 3000 亿元科技 创新和技术改造再贷款额度；⑦设立 5000 亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"；⑧增加支农支小再贷款额度 3000 亿元；⑨将证券基金保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款的额度合并使用；⑩创设科技创新债券 风险分担工具。 国家金融监督管理总局李局长公布了八项政策措施：①加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制 度；②进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围；③进一步调降保险公司股票投资风险因子，支持稳定和活 跃资本市场；④尽快推出支持小微企业、民营企业融资一揽子政策；⑤制定实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in April, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariff policies and market sentiment on various financial instruments [2][4]. Summary by Sections Global Asset Performance - In April, global bonds outperformed other asset classes with a return of 2.94%, followed by global stocks at 0.98%, while commodities saw a decline of 8.79% [2]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The ratio of discretionary to staple consumption in the S&P 500 has rebounded, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, influenced by Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent negotiations [4]. - Following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, dropping over 10% from its peak earlier in the year [4][11]. Dollar Liquidity and Credit Concerns - Dollar liquidity concerns in April 2025 were noted, but the situation was significantly better than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, with specific credit spreads remaining lower [5][14]. Investment Preferences - A survey indicated that 42% of global fund managers expect gold to be the best-performing asset in 2025, followed by cash and government bonds [6][16]. - The Bloomberg Federal Reserve sentiment index has declined, suggesting a potential easing of upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [6][20]. Economic Activity Indicators - The copper-to-oil ratio has been rising, which may positively impact the CSI 300 index, reflecting stronger industrial activity in China [7][26]. - Speculative positions in Japanese yen futures reached a 20-year high, indicating strong bullish sentiment towards the yen [8][28]. Currency Fluctuations - The Chinese yuan experienced significant volatility in April, initially depreciating due to tariff fears but later recovering as market expectations for U.S.-China tariff negotiations improved [9][31]. - Concerns over U.S. dollar credit led to a spike in gold prices, which reached a critical level of $3,500 per ounce [10][35]. Economic Activity Index - The weekly economic activity index from Huachuang Securities showed a rebound, indicating a positive correlation with asset prices and economic fundamentals [39]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The article notes that the copper-gold ratio serves as a leading indicator for U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting market preferences for risk assets [41]. - The sentiment index, which combines various market indicators, has shown a decline, suggesting a shift in market mood [53]. Asset Class Performance Overview - A detailed table outlines the performance of various asset classes, with notable declines in the S&P 500 (-0.76%) and the CSI 300 (-3.00%) for the month [67].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collective appreciation of Asian currencies during the May Day holiday, primarily driven by the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which rose by 6.8% [2][8]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is attributed to exporters selling US dollars and insurance companies' foreign exchange hedging operations, which may have intensified the currency's rise [11][12]. - The article suggests that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may not be an isolated case, as a weakening US dollar could lead to a repatriation of foreign assets, further driving local currency appreciation [11][12]. Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, global asset performance leaned towards a "risk-on" sentiment, with major stock markets experiencing gains, particularly the Nasdaq index, which rose by 3% [4][18]. - The US non-farm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, indicating a robust labor market and alleviating recession concerns [5][29]. - The US GDP for Q1 turned negative for the first time since Q3 2022, recording a -0.3% growth rate, primarily due to a significant decline in net exports [5][35]. Group 3 - The Bank of Japan decided to pause interest rate hikes, maintaining the policy rate at 0.5%, citing uncertainties related to tariff policies as a key factor [5][36]. - The OPEC+ meeting on May 3 agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is three times the original planned increase, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [6][41]. - Warren Buffett announced his retirement at the end of the year during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, emphasizing the importance of not using trade as a weapon and expressing optimism about the US economy [7][42].

报告摘要 五一假期，居民出行的量继续高增，同时价格也在趋稳。量的层面，跨区域出行人数、省市接待游客 数、机酒订单、出入境人数，表现均较好。价的层面，随着出行热度高涨，机票酒店价格趋稳。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 1 、假期出游的整体特征：量增长，价趋稳 假期出游，量稳健增长。跨区域出行人数、省市接待游客数、机酒订单，表现均较好。① 全社会跨区 域人员日均流动量，假期前三日同比增长 5.8% （春节为 6% ）；②省市游客数据，我们统计的 11 省市数据来看，有 8 省市接待游客数实现双位数增长；③机酒订单，多个平台数据显示，假期机票、 酒店预定量实现双位数增长。 量增长带动价格趋稳 。平台机票、酒店价格，持平去年或略有增长。如据人民日报 4 月底报道，"在 线旅游预订平台数据显示……从平均支付价格来看，热门目的地有七成以上机票价格同比上涨。但得 益于燃油附加费降低，上涨幅度大多在 2%-5% 之间"。 2 、假期出游的结构特征：长线爆发、跨境双向升温、县域逆袭 长线爆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for April has dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, influenced by high previous growth rates and external environmental changes [2][3][18]. Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5% to 49.0%, with the production index falling from 52.6% to 49.8% [2][18]. - The new orders index declined from 51.8% to 49.2%, while the new export orders index dropped significantly from 49.0% to 44.7% [2][18]. - The employment index fell from 48.2% to 47.9%, and the raw materials inventory index slightly decreased from 47.2% to 47.0% [2][18]. Group 2: Industry Performance High-Tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand with a PMI of 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, supported by production and new orders both above 52.0% [5][10]. - Other sectors like equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy industries saw declines in their PMIs, indicating varying levels of economic performance [5][10]. Infrastructure - The civil engineering business activity index rose to 60.9%, up 6.4 percentage points, reflecting accelerated construction progress across various projects [13][20]. - The government aims to expedite funding for infrastructure projects, with significant budget allocations already made for 2023 and 2024 [14][20]. Resident Services - The service sector, particularly in areas related to tourism and leisure, remains robust, with relevant business activity indices above 50% [15][16]. - The government emphasizes the development of service consumption as a key area for economic growth, with specific measures to enhance consumer spending [16].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 核心结论 关税不确定性使财政扩张的必要性增加，我们提示二季度或有几个边际变化： 1 、 二季度财政或加速发行既定债务 ，增量债务或随时接续（经验规律： 增量债务政策 多在 6 月底 ~10 月底 ）； 2 、财政扩张方向或 由一季度偏消费到二季度边际倾斜投资 ； 3 、 基于既定政策测算， 二季度广义财政支出增速或在 -0.6%~10.4% 附近 （ 今年一季度为 4.3% ， 2019~2024 年二季度均值为 1.8% ；均为不考虑中央金融机构注资特别国债、用于化债的特殊新增专项债 的同口径比较）， 若新增专项债极限提速 （如首个出台专项债"自审自发"方案的省份湖南要求"原则上 6 月底前完成全年专项债券发行工作"； 2018 年 8 月中美贸易争端升级后，财政部要求在两个月内发完全年 额度） 或增量债务接续，增速或更高。 一、财政扩张的规律：二季度或加速发行既定债务，增量债务或随时接续 债务是支持财政扩张的重要力量，每年可分为既定债务和增量债务。既定债务规模由预算确定 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 本周主要关注政治局会议，其他政策出台相对较少。具体参考点评 《以确定性应对不确定性——从投 资视角学 习 4.25 政治局会议精神》 。 1 ）政策定调未发生明显变化。 会议强调，要"坚定不移办好自己的事……以高质量发展的确定性应 对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"。 2 ）宏观政策 ，强调要"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"。财政政策，要求"加快地方政府专项债 券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"；货币政策，"设立新型政策性金融工具"。 3 ）消费方面， 强调服务消费，"设立服务消费与养老再贷款"。 4 ）产业方面， "加快实施'人工智能 + '行动"。当天政治局集体学习也是以人工智能为主题，总书记 强调要"坚持自立自强 突出应用导向 推动人工智能健康有序发展"。 5 ）涉企问题上， "加快解决地方政府拖欠企业账款问题"；"对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险 基金稳岗返还比例"。 近一周，对外开放相关政策较多： 1 ）自贸区政策： 4 ...