lar Realignment and Reconfiguration 2025年中金公司国际区域经济展望研讨会 2025 CICC Global Research Conference on Regional Economic Outlook 2025.06.13 June 13, 2025 09:00-18:10 上海浦东香格里拉大酒店 浦江楼3层开封厅 Level 3, River Wing, Meeting Room Kaifeng Pudong Shangri-La, Shanghai 声明 本活动仅面向中金公司客户开放，交流内容仅供参考。未经中金公司和演讲嘉宾书面许可，任何机构和个人不 得以任何形式将本论坛的内容和相关信息对外公布、转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改等。如有违反 上述要 求的行为,中金公司保留追究相关法律责任的权利。 | 会议议程 | 1 100 100 | | --- | --- | | AGENDA | | | 6月13日 | 主 题 Panel June 13 | | | 浦江楼3层 开封厅 | | | Meeting Room Kaifeng, Level 3, River ...

Group 1: Automotive Intelligence Data - The article focuses on three main areas of automotive intelligence: intelligent perception, intelligent decision-making, and intelligent cockpit, showcasing key indicators such as shipment volume, installation rate, penetration rate, and localization level to illustrate market trends [2]. Group 2: Aluminum Industry Observation - Weekly tracking of core indicators such as prices, inventory, production, operating rates, cash profits, and various costs in the aluminum industry is provided [3]. Group 3: Building Materials Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - High-frequency tracking of supply and demand conditions and price trends in the cement, glass, and fiberglass sub-markets is presented, with key indicators available for quick reference [5][6]. Group 4: Film Industry Database - The film industry database covers two main areas: box office and cinema channels, featuring monthly indicators such as box office revenue, number of cinemas, ticket sales, and market share of film investments [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various themes and sessions related to the macroeconomic outlook and investment opportunities in China and the U.S., highlighting the importance of strategic analysis in navigating the current economic landscape [10][11][12]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The sessions include discussions on China's macroeconomic outlook and the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, emphasizing the need for strategic insights in investment decisions [10]. - Key speakers include top analysts from CICC, focusing on A-share market outlook, Hong Kong and overseas market outlook, and major asset trends [10][11]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The article outlines thematic sub-forums covering topics such as China's economic transformation, technological independence, and the financial real estate sector [13][15]. - Specific sessions will address the challenges and opportunities in the real estate market, including the restructuring of the industry and the impact of low interest rates on bond investment strategies [15][16]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Innovations - The article highlights sessions on consumer trends, including the pet economy and the evolution of food and beverage sectors, indicating a focus on emerging consumer demands [18]. - Discussions will also cover innovations in robotics and AI applications in investment, showcasing the intersection of technology and finance [17].

中金研究 近期四大行下调存款利率，1年期定期存款利率下降至1%以下。并且，随着7天回购利率的下调，货币市场基金7日年化收益率也在向1%靠近。对于货 币基金、现金管理类理财而言，如何应对这一挑战？我们希望从海外经验来梳理和挖掘一些共同的规律，来为国内的管理人和监管机构提供参考借 鉴。 对中国而言，我国的利率传导体系是双轨制，即存贷款利率和货币市场利率双轨，因此货币市场利率和存款利率的贝塔值不仅受到市场影响，也受到政策 利率的影响。2023年之前，货币市场率相较于7天回购政策利率而言弹性远高于存款利率，但在2023年以来由于存款自律机制频繁下调存款利率，因此存 款利率贝塔值反而比货币市场利率更高。因此可以看到，在货币市场利率贝塔值更高的年份（即2023年之前），类似美国和欧洲的经验，央行货币政策周 期对货币市场基金的行业规模有至关重要的影响。而2023年之后，存款利率下调更快，货币市场基金的规模也仍然维持高速增长。正是由于双轨制，我国 央行可以针对各类利率做到精准调控，因而，未来随着利率继续走低，中国的MMF是否会继续存续，取决于我国货币市场利率中枢是否会下降至明显低 于存款利率的水平。我们预计未来货币市场利率会 ...

中金研究 在家电以旧换新政策带动及低基数效应下，我们预计今年小家电行业需求有望延续复苏态势。在此背景下，行业竞争缓解、公司聚焦高质量发展，行 业均价进一步修复，同时平台降费减轻公司压力，综合影响下，我们预计小家电公司盈利能力或将明显改善。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 低基数叠加国补，小家电行业需求温和复苏。 2020年之前，厨房小家电行业每年均保持稳步增长，2016-2019年线上零售额CAGR 7%。2020年疫情期间 小家电线上化加速、催化居家需求，小家电行业迎来高光时刻，当年小熊/北鼎/新宝收入同比分别+36%/+27%/+67%。而后小家电行业进入平台期，虽然 短期空气炸锅、咖啡机等新品类带来一定增长，但受宏观经济的影响，行业整体景气度较弱。4Q24行业低基数叠加国补政策，行业需求呈现复苏趋势， 1Q25国补范围进一步扩大。根据AVC，4Q24/1Q25线上零售额同比+8%/+6%，其中零售量基本持平，主要由价格拉动。 破晓时刻，盈利能力拐点显现。 我们认为公司层面重点关注盈利能力改善。需求温和复苏的背景下，价格战缓解&自身提结构保证毛利率稳定，平台降费 &自身控费降低费用率，最终带来公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The konjac snack industry is gaining popularity among consumers due to its crispy texture and low-calorie, healthy characteristics, indicating a broad future potential for the konjac category [1]. Group 1: Konjac Industry Chain - The demand side shows that konjac is widely used in food, healthcare, industrial, and agricultural fields, with the primary application in food, including snacks, meal replacements, and fresh ingredients. The konjac snack market is projected to reach approximately 172-192 billion yuan by 2024 [3][11]. - On the supply side, the planting area for konjac has been limited and has faced challenges, leading to a decline in planting area for four consecutive years since 2020. The planting area is expected to decrease to 178 million mu in 2024, with a projected 20% reduction in fresh konjac yield due to drought conditions [3][14][19]. Group 2: Industry Barriers and Outlook - The konjac industry faces barriers such as limited planting technology and low barriers in the processing sector. The downstream application space remains large, with significant growth potential in the konjac snack market [4][25]. - The konjac snack segment is considered a promising market due to its health attributes and strong flavor absorption capabilities. The market for konjac snacks is expected to surpass traditional spicy strips, with leading brands like WeLong and YanJinPuZi establishing a strong market presence [4][34]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The konjac snack market is projected to grow significantly, with WeLong's konjac products expected to generate over 30 billion yuan in sales by 2024, indicating a strong market position [11][34]. - The konjac jelly market is also anticipated to expand, with a projected market size of approximately 47 billion yuan in 2024, driven by consumer demand for innovative and healthy products [12][39]. - The konjac industry is still in its early development stage in China, with significant room for growth compared to Japan, where per capita consumption has declined. The potential for increased per capita consumption in China is expected to rise as the industry matures [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly focusing on the strengthening of the RMB against the USD and the implications of these changes in the context of geopolitical and economic shifts [1][3]. Group 1: Three Confusions Regarding RMB Exchange Rate - The first confusion is that despite advancements in China's manufacturing technology and productivity, the actual RMB exchange rate has depreciated significantly since 2022, contradicting the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis (BSH) [3][7]. - The second confusion highlights the historical divergence between the nominal effective exchange rate and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB, which has reached unprecedented levels since 2022 [8][18]. - The third confusion points out that the depreciation of the RMB against the USD has been less than that of other currencies from China's trading partners, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting exchange rates [10][21]. Group 2: Analysis of the First Confusion - The limitations of the BSH are discussed, emphasizing that the hypothesis does not account for prolonged demand deficiencies, which can prevent price increases despite productivity gains [11][16]. - The article argues that the BSH primarily focuses on supply-side factors while neglecting the financial perspective, which can also influence the actual exchange rate [16][18]. Group 3: Analysis of the Second Confusion - The divergence between the nominal and actual effective exchange rates reflects a significant widening of the inflation gap between China and its trading partners, with China's inflation remaining low while that of major partners has increased [18][19]. - The article notes that China's inflation has been declining, with CPI growth averaging 0.2% from 2023 to 2024, contrasting sharply with the higher inflation rates in the US and other trading partners [19][20]. Group 4: Analysis of the Third Confusion - The RMB's depreciation against the USD has been less severe compared to the depreciation of currencies from other trading partners, suggesting that the current account has provided some support to the RMB [21][23]. - The article highlights that from January 2021 to April 2025, the RMB depreciated by 12% against the USD, while other currencies like the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar experienced much larger depreciations [22][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - In the short term, there may be room for the RMB to appreciate against the USD, especially if the USD faces downward pressure due to fiscal and trade deficits [5][43]. - The article suggests that if the accumulated current account surplus is converted into RMB more rapidly, it could further support the RMB's appreciation [44][50]. - The analysis indicates that the RMB may have upward potential by the end of the year, driven by a weaker USD and supportive domestic factors [51][53].

文 / 于钟海 , 魏鹳霏 , 肖楷 , 赵丽萍 中金研究 以MiniMax V-Triune新框架成果为例，推理感知统一框架在可拓展性、泛化性初步验证。 V-Triune以三层组件架构实现视觉推理和感知任务统一至强化学 习框架：1）多模态样本数据格式化；2）验证器奖励计算，采用异步客户端-服务器架构，奖励计算和主训练循环解耦；3）数据源级指标监控，便于溯源 和提升稳定性。结合动态IoU奖励机制、冻结ViT参数等工程优化，Orsta系列模型（32B参数）在MEGA-Bench Core基准测试中实现了最高14.1%的性能提 升。 多模态推理助力智能驾驶能力升阶。 在智能驾驶场景，多模态推理是增强道路交通标志识别判断能力、提升复杂场景泛化性的重要途径，正成为头部智 能驾驶企业算法演进的重点。2025年5月30日，蔚来世界模型NVM首个版本正式开启推送，具备全量理解、想象重构和推理能力，能够对实时环境多模信 息进行理解和推演，在选择最优ETC车道通行、停车场自主寻路等场景的性能提升显著。此外，理想自研的VLA大模型亦具备思维链推理能力，以多模态 推理模拟人类驾驶员的思维运作方式。 图表1：MiniMax多模态RL ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong (A to H listings) since 2025, driven by a supportive policy environment, improved market conditions, and specific business needs of companies [1]. Group 1: Reasons for A to H Listings - The supportive policy environment includes measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission encouraging leading enterprises to list in Hong Kong, which has led to 8 A-share companies raising a total of 981.1 billion HKD since September 2022 [1]. - The market environment has improved significantly, with Hong Kong's stock market showing better liquidity and sentiment compared to A-shares, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 15% year-to-date [1][6]. - Companies are seeking to expand their overseas business and increase the proportion of foreign investors, with many companies finding Hong Kong's listing process more flexible and quicker for financing needs [9]. Group 2: Understanding AH Premium - The AH premium, which indicates the price difference between A-shares and H-shares, is influenced by differences in investor structure, trading, liquidity, and refinancing mechanisms between the two markets [13]. - Currently, the AH premium index is at 133%, with historical averages around 140%, indicating that H-shares generally trade at a discount compared to A-shares due to various market dynamics [14]. - The AH premium is more applicable for dividend investment perspectives, as most A-H listed companies are in traditional sectors, making them suitable for dividend-focused strategies [18]. Group 3: Why H-shares Can Be More Expensive - The recent listing of Ningde Times has led to a situation where H-shares are trading at a premium to A-shares, with a current premium of 11% [19]. - Factors contributing to this premium include the limited size of the IPO, high investor enthusiasm, and favorable liquidity conditions in the Hong Kong market [21][22]. - The inclusion of Ningde Times in the MSCI Global Standard Index is expected to attract approximately 200 million USD in passive fund inflows, further supporting the premium [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions and key events affecting the A-share market during the Dragon Boat Festival period, highlighting uncertainties in both domestic and international contexts that are influencing investor sentiment and market performance [2][6]. Domestic and International Events - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile pattern with reduced trading volume, as investors are shifting between different styles due to high uncertainties and a lack of sustained market hotspots [2]. - The U.S. has increased steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, prompting potential retaliatory measures from the EU, which could further impact global supply chains and economic growth expectations [2][3]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations have introduced new discriminatory measures from the U.S., including restrictions on AI chip exports and visa cancellations for Chinese students, increasing instability in bilateral economic relations [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" has introduced additional tax burdens on foreign investors from countries deemed to have punitive tax policies, potentially discouraging foreign investment in U.S. assets [3]. - Concerns over U.S. debt defaults have risen due to proposed budget plans that could add approximately $3 trillion to federal debt over the next decade, raising questions about fiscal sustainability [4]. - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with recent drone attacks in Ukraine and preparations by Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating a potential increase in Middle Eastern conflicts [4]. Domestic Tourism and Travel Trends - During the Dragon Boat Festival from May 31 to June 2, 2025, an estimated 657 million people are expected to travel, averaging 219 million daily, which represents a 3.0% year-on-year increase [5]. - Railway passenger volume is projected to reach 47.1 million, with a daily average of 15.7 million, marking a 2.3% increase year-on-year [5]. - Road travel is expected to account for 600 million people, averaging 200 million daily, reflecting a 3.14% increase year-on-year [5]. - Air travel is anticipated to see 5.6 million passengers, with a daily average of 1.87 million, showing a 1.22% increase year-on-year [5]. - The trend indicates a preference for local and nearby travel, with a notable increase in demand for connecting flights for outbound travel, up nearly 20% year-on-year [5][10]. Market Outlook - Post-holiday, the A-share market is likely to remain in a phase of volatility, with medium-term resilience expected due to previous easing of trade tensions and supportive domestic monetary policies [6]. - Investors are anticipated to refocus on domestic policy and economic recovery signals, with macroeconomic data showing strong performance in April but potential weakening in May [6]. - The article suggests that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as mergers and acquisitions, and industries less affected by tariffs, like AI infrastructure and certain export-oriented sectors, should be closely monitored for investment opportunities [6].