文 / 于钟海 , 魏鹳霏 , 肖楷 , 赵丽萍 中金研究 以MiniMax V-Triune新框架成果为例，推理感知统一框架在可拓展性、泛化性初步验证。 V-Triune以三层组件架构实现视觉推理和感知任务统一至强化学 习框架：1）多模态样本数据格式化；2）验证器奖励计算，采用异步客户端-服务器架构，奖励计算和主训练循环解耦；3）数据源级指标监控，便于溯源 和提升稳定性。结合动态IoU奖励机制、冻结ViT参数等工程优化，Orsta系列模型（32B参数）在MEGA-Bench Core基准测试中实现了最高14.1%的性能提 升。 多模态推理助力智能驾驶能力升阶。 在智能驾驶场景，多模态推理是增强道路交通标志识别判断能力、提升复杂场景泛化性的重要途径，正成为头部智 能驾驶企业算法演进的重点。2025年5月30日，蔚来世界模型NVM首个版本正式开启推送，具备全量理解、想象重构和推理能力，能够对实时环境多模信 息进行理解和推演，在选择最优ETC车道通行、停车场自主寻路等场景的性能提升显著。此外，理想自研的VLA大模型亦具备思维链推理能力，以多模态 推理模拟人类驾驶员的思维运作方式。 图表1：MiniMax多模态RL ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong (A to H listings) since 2025, driven by a supportive policy environment, improved market conditions, and specific business needs of companies [1]. Group 1: Reasons for A to H Listings - The supportive policy environment includes measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission encouraging leading enterprises to list in Hong Kong, which has led to 8 A-share companies raising a total of 981.1 billion HKD since September 2022 [1]. - The market environment has improved significantly, with Hong Kong's stock market showing better liquidity and sentiment compared to A-shares, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 15% year-to-date [1][6]. - Companies are seeking to expand their overseas business and increase the proportion of foreign investors, with many companies finding Hong Kong's listing process more flexible and quicker for financing needs [9]. Group 2: Understanding AH Premium - The AH premium, which indicates the price difference between A-shares and H-shares, is influenced by differences in investor structure, trading, liquidity, and refinancing mechanisms between the two markets [13]. - Currently, the AH premium index is at 133%, with historical averages around 140%, indicating that H-shares generally trade at a discount compared to A-shares due to various market dynamics [14]. - The AH premium is more applicable for dividend investment perspectives, as most A-H listed companies are in traditional sectors, making them suitable for dividend-focused strategies [18]. Group 3: Why H-shares Can Be More Expensive - The recent listing of Ningde Times has led to a situation where H-shares are trading at a premium to A-shares, with a current premium of 11% [19]. - Factors contributing to this premium include the limited size of the IPO, high investor enthusiasm, and favorable liquidity conditions in the Hong Kong market [21][22]. - The inclusion of Ningde Times in the MSCI Global Standard Index is expected to attract approximately 200 million USD in passive fund inflows, further supporting the premium [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions and key events affecting the A-share market during the Dragon Boat Festival period, highlighting uncertainties in both domestic and international contexts that are influencing investor sentiment and market performance [2][6]. Domestic and International Events - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile pattern with reduced trading volume, as investors are shifting between different styles due to high uncertainties and a lack of sustained market hotspots [2]. - The U.S. has increased steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, prompting potential retaliatory measures from the EU, which could further impact global supply chains and economic growth expectations [2][3]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations have introduced new discriminatory measures from the U.S., including restrictions on AI chip exports and visa cancellations for Chinese students, increasing instability in bilateral economic relations [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" has introduced additional tax burdens on foreign investors from countries deemed to have punitive tax policies, potentially discouraging foreign investment in U.S. assets [3]. - Concerns over U.S. debt defaults have risen due to proposed budget plans that could add approximately $3 trillion to federal debt over the next decade, raising questions about fiscal sustainability [4]. - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with recent drone attacks in Ukraine and preparations by Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating a potential increase in Middle Eastern conflicts [4]. Domestic Tourism and Travel Trends - During the Dragon Boat Festival from May 31 to June 2, 2025, an estimated 657 million people are expected to travel, averaging 219 million daily, which represents a 3.0% year-on-year increase [5]. - Railway passenger volume is projected to reach 47.1 million, with a daily average of 15.7 million, marking a 2.3% increase year-on-year [5]. - Road travel is expected to account for 600 million people, averaging 200 million daily, reflecting a 3.14% increase year-on-year [5]. - Air travel is anticipated to see 5.6 million passengers, with a daily average of 1.87 million, showing a 1.22% increase year-on-year [5]. - The trend indicates a preference for local and nearby travel, with a notable increase in demand for connecting flights for outbound travel, up nearly 20% year-on-year [5][10]. Market Outlook - Post-holiday, the A-share market is likely to remain in a phase of volatility, with medium-term resilience expected due to previous easing of trade tensions and supportive domestic monetary policies [6]. - Investors are anticipated to refocus on domestic policy and economic recovery signals, with macroeconomic data showing strong performance in April but potential weakening in May [6]. - The article suggests that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as mergers and acquisitions, and industries less affected by tariffs, like AI infrastructure and certain export-oriented sectors, should be closely monitored for investment opportunities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and significance of the REITs market in China, particularly focusing on the strategic importance of the first market-oriented rental housing REIT issued by China Resources, which has attracted significant investor attention since its launch [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of REITs - The issuance of REITs by China Resources has restructured its rental housing business model, allowing for stable operations and accelerated capital turnover, which benefits resource allocation within the company [4]. - The REITs are seen as a crucial part of China Resources' broader asset management strategy, linking investment, financing, construction, management, and exit in a closed capital loop [4][6]. Group 2: Future Trends in Rental Housing Industry - The rental housing industry in China is expected to experience three major trends: 1. Policy-driven standardization and transparency, benefiting market-oriented institutions [5]. 2. Structural growth in demand, particularly in first- and second-tier cities due to urbanization and an increasing rental ratio among new citizens and youth [5]. 3. Enhanced operational precision and segmentation, with leading companies focusing on brand operation and digital management in niche markets [5][6]. Group 3: Shanghai Rental Housing Market - The acceleration of rental housing supply in Shanghai aims to alleviate housing pressure for new citizens and youth, fostering long-term talent retention and macroeconomic development [6]. - Professional rental housing companies are expected to have increased opportunities in the market due to significant supply and demand dynamics in core cities like Shanghai [6]. Group 4: Expectations for the C-REITs Market - The release of Document 1014 marks a new phase of standardized and normalized development for the C-REITs market, expanding the scope of rental housing included in REIT issuance [7]. - The market for rental housing REITs is anticipated to grow significantly, with the potential for substantial market capitalization similar to developed markets, where apartment REITs have reached over $100 billion [7][8].

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 并购重组新征程 >>点击图片查看全文<< 去年4月以来并购重组制度持续优化，市场关注度逐步提升。今年5月16日，并购新规修订正式落地，修改内容主要包括：建立重组股份 对价分期支付机制；明确上市公司之间吸收合并的锁定期要求；提高对财务状况变化、同业竞争和关联交易监管的包容度；新设重组简 易审核程序；对私募基金投资期限与重组取得股份的锁定期实施"反向挂钩"。综合来看，本轮新规进一步加大了对科技创新企业的支持 力度，促进并购市场"脱虚向实"、鼓励企业进行符合企业发展需求的产业并购，同时推动并购重组成为畅通A股退市渠道、完善市场生态 的重要手段。我们在本篇报告中更新了924以来并购重组市场的进展和未来投资方向。 图表："并购六条"以来并购重组行业分布 注：数据截至2025年5月23日。因部分新项目无金额数据，本表以个数计。 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.05.25 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 02 策略 Strategy 美国还能"扛多久"？ >>点击图片查看全文<< "对等关税"宣布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The localization of key materials in China is accelerating, driven by national policies and significant R&D investments, positioning leading chemical companies for growth opportunities [1][3][4]. Group 1: Progress in Localization - China has made significant progress in the localization of key materials, particularly in high-performance fibers, engineering plastics, and semiconductor materials [3][9]. - Achievements in high-performance fibers include advancements in carbon fibers and aramid fibers, reaching international standards [3][9]. - In engineering plastics, major types such as nylon and polycarbonate have been fully localized, with significant strides in specialized engineering plastics [3][9]. - The semiconductor materials sector has seen notable advancements, with domestic companies achieving substantial market shares in chemical mechanical polishing liquids and silicon carbide substrates [3][9]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Acceleration - Three favorable factors are driving the acceleration of localization: strategic national policies, increased R&D investment, and China's dominance in advanced application scenarios [4][10][12]. - National policies have been established to support the development of strategic emerging industries, including new materials, with specific goals for self-sufficiency by 2025 [10]. - R&D expenditures in the chemical industry have surged from 7.7 billion yuan in 2013 to 85.2 billion yuan in 2024, marking an elevenfold increase [12]. - China's leadership in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics creates favorable conditions for the localization of key materials [12]. Group 3: Urgent Localization Needs - There are five critical fields with 26 key materials urgently needing localization, including semiconductor materials, advanced packaging materials, display materials, advanced electronic materials, and other advanced materials [5][17]. - Key materials with global market sizes exceeding $2 billion include photoresists and electronic specialty gases, while others fall within the $1-2 billion range [18][19]. - The semiconductor materials sector is particularly highlighted, with a focus on photoresists and precursor materials, which are essential for advanced manufacturing processes [20][31]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor photoresist market in mainland China is projected to reach $770 million in 2024, making it the largest globally [21]. - The growth of the advanced semiconductor photoresist market is driven by continuous upgrades in technology nodes and increased wafer production capacity [22]. - Domestic companies are making significant progress in developing advanced photoresists, with increasing demand from wafer manufacturers for localized solutions [30].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the micro-cap style is attributed to multiple factors, including macro policies, market environment, and event effects, with the Wind Micro-Cap Index leading the market with a monthly increase of 9.31% and a year-to-date return of 24.37% as of May 27, 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Benefits - The release of policies aimed at invigorating small and micro enterprises has positively impacted the micro-cap style, particularly following the China Securities Regulatory Commission's guidance on optimizing mergers and acquisitions [2][7]. - The new policies have streamlined approval processes and reduced funding pressures for micro-cap companies, encouraging private equity participation and enhancing support for technology innovation [7][8]. Group 2: Market Environment - A relatively loose liquidity environment, characterized by synchronized growth in social financing and M2, has provided systemic support for high-elasticity styles like micro-cap stocks [2][9]. - The M2 growth rate reached 8.0% in April 2025, the highest in nearly a year, indicating a favorable liquidity backdrop for micro-cap performance [9][11]. Group 3: Predictive Indicators - The current low concentration of institutional holdings and declining large-cap to small-cap PB ratio are favorable for micro-cap style, suggesting increased attention to potential investment opportunities [3][12]. - As of May 2025, institutional holdings remain at a historically low concentration, indicating a broader market focus on smaller companies [12][13]. Group 4: Funding Types - High-risk preference funds have shown significant participation in micro-cap stocks, with 72 out of 400 index constituents having a financing participation ratio of 3% or more [3][16]. - Institutional investors are cautiously increasing their allocation to micro-cap stocks, seeking opportunities while remaining mindful of risk [16][24]. Group 5: Calendar Effects - Historical data indicates a higher probability of micro-cap style gains in May, following a downturn in April, attributed to the resolution of earnings-related concerns [3][25]. - The analysis shows that micro-cap stocks tend to perform well in May due to reduced market anxiety over potential delistings and improved valuation recovery [25][26]. Group 6: Crowding Risk - Current indicators suggest that the micro-cap style has not triggered crowding signals, indicating a lower risk of short-term pullbacks due to excessive crowding [4][30]. - The micro-cap index's crowding score remains low, suggesting minimal risk of significant downturns from overexposure [30][32]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The micro-cap style may experience diminishing advantages, but structural opportunities are likely to persist, supported by ongoing policy backing for small and micro enterprises [5][33]. - Investors are expected to focus more on high-growth quality small and micro enterprises, with potential volatility in the market as liquidity conditions evolve [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - AI companionship applications are rapidly emerging and gaining popularity, with significant market potential and user demand, particularly among younger demographics [2][7][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global AI companionship market is projected to reach approximately $30 million in 2023, with potential growth to $70 billion and $150 billion by 2030 under baseline and optimistic scenarios, respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 200% and 236% from 2024 to 2030 [7]. - Monthly active users (MAU) of AI companionship products have increased nearly 30 times from under 500,000 to about 15 million between 2018 and 2023, outpacing the growth rates of social media and online gaming [7][8]. Group 2: User Demographics and Needs - The primary user base for AI companionship applications consists of younger individuals seeking emotional support, entertainment, and efficiency improvements [2][8]. - Users exhibit a higher tolerance for AI imperfections in companionship scenarios compared to productivity applications, where accuracy is paramount [8]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The use of mixed expert models (MoE) has significantly reduced costs and improved efficiency in AI dialogue scenarios, enabling better user experiences [16][18]. - Advances in long-text capabilities and linear attention mechanisms are expected to enhance user interactions by allowing for more coherent and contextually relevant conversations [23][24]. - Multi-modal capabilities, including image, audio, and video generation, are becoming essential for enriching user experiences and increasing engagement [27][30]. Group 4: Application Landscape - Notable AI companionship applications include Replika, Character.AI, MiniMax's Talkie, and others, each focusing on different aspects such as emotional support, interactive content, and user-generated content [3][41][44]. - Character.AI has emerged as a leader in the market, achieving a peak MAU of 22 million by August 2024, driven by its strong technical foundation and user engagement strategies [36][37]. Group 5: Future Directions - The industry is expected to explore hardware integration to enhance user experiences, particularly in educational and gaming contexts, targeting broader demographics including children and the elderly [64][65]. - The potential for AI companionship applications to evolve into comprehensive content platforms, akin to TikTok or Xiaohongshu, is being discussed, with a focus on user engagement and emotional connections [59][60].

2025年中金公司中期投资策略会 CICC Investment Strategy Conference 2H25 扫描末尾二维码 查看更多会议信息 重磅嘉宾(按发言顺序) 海尔集团董事局主席、首席执行官 Chairman of the Board Chief Executive Officer, Haier Group 彭文生 中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人 中金研究院院长 Chief Economist, Head of Research Department Dean of CICC Global Institute, CICC Eswar S. Prasad 美国康奈尔大学经济学教授 美国布鲁金斯学会高级研究员 Professor of Economics, Cornell University Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution 总量主题论坛 6月11日 浦江楼3层长安+洛阳+开封厅 中国云观经济展望/美国云观经济展望 14:00 - 14:40 张文朗 中金公司首席宏观分析师、董事总经理 刘政宁 中金公司执行总经理、中金美国证券首席经济学家 14:40-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent low level of stock index futures basis is linked to the dynamics of Dynamic Coupon Notes (DCN) products, which are believed to potentially reduce the basis rather than deepen it [1][4][31]. Group 1: Stock Index Futures Basis - The recent basis rates for IC and IM have reached historical lows, influenced by factors such as hedging, trading, dividend cycles, and policy restrictions [2][6]. - The basis rates are expected to exhibit cyclical fluctuations, with the current deep basis potentially benefiting the yield and scale of structured products like DCN and snowball products [2][7]. - The basis rates for IC and IM, after adjusting for dividends, remain at historical lows, indicating persistent pressure on the stock index futures market [8][9]. Group 2: Dynamic Coupon Notes (DCN) - DCN is characterized as a type of snowball product without an observation for knock-in, providing fixed income features combined with derivatives [3][25]. - The structure of DCN allows for monthly interest payments if the index price meets certain thresholds, with a risk of loss if the index falls below a specified level at maturity [25][30]. - The hedging mechanism of DCN is smoother compared to traditional snowball products, as it lacks a knock-in feature, resulting in a more stable impact on the stock index futures market [4][31]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Product Scale - The total scale of snowball-like structured products is estimated to be around 100 billion yuan, which is less than half of the scale at the beginning of 2024 [4][31][38]. - The recent deep basis in stock index futures is expected to lead to a rapid increase in the yield and scale of DCN and similar structured products [4][45]. - The issuance of DCN products is seen as attractive in a low-interest environment, potentially leading to increased demand and market activity [4][31].