以下文章来源于高瑞东宏观笔记 ，作者高瑞东 刘星辰 高瑞东宏观笔记 . 对全球宏观和金融市场的思考 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 1）4月美国CPI同比+2.3%，前值+2.4%，市场预期+2.4%；2）季调后CPI环比+0.2%，前值-0.1%，市场预 期+0.3%；3）核心CPI同比+2.8%，前值+2.8%，市场预期+2.8%；4）季调后核心CPI环比+0.2%，前值 +0.1%，市场预期+0.3%。 核心观点： 4月，美国通胀低于预期，较上月继续回落。结构上，食品、能源、核心服务价格同比增速均出现回落， 部分反映贸易争端导致的需求侧疲弱；而关税引发的供给侧冲击带动核心商品价格同比小幅上涨，但目前 影响尚未完全显现，其中，家具、家电、医疗保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by consumption stimulus policies and an enhanced platform ecosystem [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 301.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [2]. - The GAAP net profit reached 10.89 billion yuan, up 52.7% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit was 12.76 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.4% increase [2]. Revenue Growth Acceleration - The overall merchandise revenue in Q1 2025 was 242.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [3]. - The home appliance and 3C product revenue was 144.3 billion yuan, growing 17.1% year-on-year [3]. - Daily necessities revenue reached 98.01 billion yuan, increasing by 14.9% year-on-year [3]. - Service revenue totaled 58.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company announced an export-to-domestic sales plan, aiming to procure no less than 200 billion yuan worth of goods through partnerships with domestic manufacturers [3]. - The company has deepened strategic cooperation with digital product brands like Xiaomi to enhance product offerings and customer experience [3]. Share Buyback and Employee Benefits - As of May 13, 2025, the company repurchased 80.7 million A shares, totaling approximately 1.5 billion USD, which is about 2.8% of the circulating shares at the end of 2024 [4]. - The remaining buyback plan has a budget of 3.5 billion USD [4]. - The company became the first platform in China to provide full-time delivery riders with social insurance and housing fund contributions starting from March 1, 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a strong position in the ion exchange and adsorption resin industry, focusing on technological advancements and market expansion to become a global leader in adsorption separation materials. Group 1: Company Overview - The company was founded in 1996 and has nearly 30 years of experience in the ion exchange and adsorption resin sector, integrating R&D, production, and sales [2] - It currently has 6 subsidiaries and 3 main production bases, maintaining a leading position in the domestic market and participating in drafting national and industry standards [2] - The company is recognized internationally as a member of the Water Quality Association (WQA), enhancing its technical strength and brand influence [2] Group 2: Production Capacity and Future Projects - The company has a designed production capacity of 19,750 tons for ion exchange and adsorption resins, 2,300 tons for macroporous adsorption resins, and 15,000 tons for food-grade treatment resins [3] - A new functional polymer material project is being developed in Jingmen, Hubei, with a total investment of 1 billion RMB, aiming for a total production capacity of 54,880 tons per year [3] - The first phase of this project is expected to produce 39,000 tons per year and is projected to commence production in the second half of 2025, which will further enhance the company's market position [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Competitive Advantages - The electronic-grade polishing resin market in China has grown from 2.7 billion RMB in 2018 to 4.5 billion RMB in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5%, expected to reach 6 billion RMB by 2025 [4] - The company is actively promoting domestic substitution in high-end fields such as semiconductors within the electronic-grade polishing resin sector [4] - The global nuclear-grade resin market was approximately 12.9 million USD in 2023, projected to grow to 16.4 million USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 3.49% [4] - The company holds a significant competitive advantage in the nuclear-grade resin field, being the first domestic enterprise to obtain access qualifications in the nuclear power sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as a leader in the ADAS integrated machine market, with expectations for hardware shipments to exceed 10 million units by 2025, driven by the "Smart Driving Equality" initiative [3]. Group 1: Market Position and Growth - In 2024, the company holds the largest market share in the front-view integrated machine computing solutions for domestic passenger vehicles in China, and ranks second among independent high-level autonomous driving solution providers [3]. - The CEO stated that by 2025, one in every three smart vehicles will be equipped with the company's technology, with projected product delivery volumes reaching 2.9 million units in 2024 and cumulative deliveries hitting 7.7 million units [3]. Group 2: Short to Long-term Growth Logic - Short-term: The J6E/M models have secured contracts with major brands like BYD, Geely, and Chery, with expectations for mid-to-high level smart driving shipments to surpass 2 million units in 2025 [4]. - Short to mid-term: The J6P and HSD integrated high-level smart driving solution is set for mass production in Q3 2025, with significant performance improvements over the previous generation [4]. - Mid-term: Collaborations with several Tier-1 suppliers are expected to facilitate international expansion, with the J6B model anticipated to see volume shipments in 2026 [4]. - Long-term: The successful mass production of the Xuri 5 chip, which is already used in various household robots, indicates potential future entry into humanoid robots and robotic dog supply chains [4]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Liquidity - Following the pre-IPO lock-up expiration on April 24, the stock price showed resilience, with only a 4.27% decline on the day of the release, and subsequent fluctuations indicating strong market support for the J6 series and HSD products [5]. - As of April 30, the company meets the criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which, along with the lock-up expiration, is expected to enhance liquidity as it has been added to the Hang Seng Technology Index [6].

Core Viewpoint - The MXD6 market is expected to grow significantly, driven by demand in emerging industries such as low-altitude economy and robotics, with a projected market size increase from $410 million in 2024 to $760 million by 2033, corresponding to a CAGR of approximately 7.1% [4] Group 1: MXD6 Applications and Characteristics - MXD6 is a high-performance engineering plastic known for its high strength, rigidity, heat resistance, wear resistance, aging resistance, chemical resistance, flame retardancy, and high barrier properties, primarily used in lightweight automotive and drone applications, as well as barrier packaging materials [3] - In packaging applications, MXD6 effectively prevents oxygen permeation and carbon dioxide escape, making it suitable for products with high gas barrier requirements [3] - MXD6 can be co-extruded or co-injected with materials like PET, PE, and PP to create multilayer films, sheets, and bottles, and can be compounded with glass fibers, carbon fibers, and mineral fillers to produce enhanced materials [3] Group 2: Market Size and Growth Projections - The global MXD6 market size is projected to grow from $410 million in 2024 to $760 million by 2033, with a CAGR of about 7.1% [4] - In the automotive sector, the market size for MXD6 is expected to increase from $13.2 million in 2023 to $22.5 million by 2033 [4] - The global production of MXD6 is estimated to be around 30,000 to 40,000 tons in 2024 [4] Group 3: Key Suppliers and Domestic Developments - Major global suppliers of MXD6 include Mitsubishi Gas Chemical from Japan, with a production capacity of 19,000 tons per year, and Solvay from Belgium, with a capacity of 8,000 tons per year [4] - Domestic companies are making significant advancements, with Sinochem International developing high-performance engineering plastics and achieving stable quality in MXD6 production [4] - Qicai Chemical announced the trial production of a 5,000 tons per year MXD6 project in September 2024, and has successfully launched a 10,000 tons per year aniline project, with further plans for additional production lines [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance and future prospects of the company's AI products, particularly the "Nano AI Search," while also discussing the financial results for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating a mixed outlook for the company's internet business and AI upgrades [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.948 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.094 billion, with losses widening [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.864 billion, an increase of 8.39% year-on-year, but a net profit of -0.273 billion, indicating an expanded loss [3]. AI Product Development - The "Nano AI Search" ranked sixth globally and second domestically in the "AI Product List" published in April 2025, showcasing the company's competitive position in AI products [4]. - The company has launched several AI-native products, including "Nano AI Search" and "360 AI Office," and has improved its self-developed large model "360 Smart Brain" [4]. Internet Business Overview - The internet advertising and service business generated a revenue of 4.166 billion in 2024, down 7.85% year-on-year, while the internet value-added services revenue increased by 25.51% to 1.379 billion [5]. - The average monthly active users (MAU) for the company's PC browser and navigation exceeded 400 million, with a market share of over 85% by the end of 2024 [5]. Security Business Development - The company has intensified its focus on national-level cybersecurity, capturing over 1,300 APT attack activities in 2024 [6]. - The "360 Security Large Model 3.0" was launched and integrated into all security products, with successful testing and application in over 50 leading clients and more than 500 SMEs [6].

Macro Insights - US inflation continues to decline, with April CPI data showing a drop below expectations, indicating a weakening inflation risk due to tariff adjustments [3] - The reduction in tariffs suggests a decrease in recession risks for the US, allowing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more patient approach in observing economic changes [3] Industry Insights - MXD6, a high-performance engineering plastic, is experiencing high demand for lightweight and barrier packaging materials, indicating a broad market potential [4] - The company has been a leader in ion exchange and adsorption resin for nearly 30 years, focusing on R&D, production, and sales [5] - The company has achieved the top market share in the ADAS integrated machine market in 2024, with expectations for hardware shipments to exceed ten million units in 2025 [8] Company Performance - JD Group reported a 1Q2025 revenue of 301.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a GAAP net profit of 10.89 billion yuan, up 52.7% year-on-year [9] - The company also reported a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.76 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.4% year-on-year growth [9]

Market Overview - In the week from May 6 to May 9, 2025, oil prices surged, domestic equity market indices generally rose, while US stocks experienced a pullback [3] - All primary industries in the Shenwan classification saw an increase, with defense, military industry, telecommunications, and electric equipment sectors leading the gains [3] Fund Issuance - A total of 15 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 6.345 billion units. This included 13 equity funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 mixed fund [4] - Overall, 27 new funds were issued across the market, comprising 18 equity funds, 6 bond funds, and 3 mixed funds [4] Fund Performance Tracking - The defense and military industry theme fund performed notably well, rising by 4.46%, while the pharmaceutical theme fund saw a decline [5] - As of May 9, 2025, the weekly performance of various theme funds was as follows: defense and military (4.46%), financial real estate (2.54%), new energy (2.27%), cyclical (1.30%), industry rotation (1.25%), consumption (1.23%), industry balance (1.20%), TMT (-0.28%), and pharmaceuticals (-1.45%) [5] ETF Market Tracking - This week, equity ETFs experienced a net outflow of 8.514 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs being the primary direction of outflow. In contrast, commodity ETFs, represented by gold ETFs, saw continued inflows [6] - The median return for equity ETFs was 1.86%, while Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of 2.19% with a net outflow of 1.683 billion yuan [6] - The median return for cross-border ETFs was 2.12%, with a net outflow of 1.009 billion yuan, while commodity ETFs had a median return of 0.67% and a net inflow of 2.025 billion yuan [6] Fund Positioning - The estimated position of actively managed equity funds decreased by 0.50 percentage points compared to the previous week (as of April 30, 2025) [8] - In terms of industry allocation, sectors such as electronics, computers, and pharmaceuticals received increased funding, while telecommunications, defense, military, and electric equipment sectors faced reductions [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - The green bond market saw a slowdown this week, with 6 new green bonds issued, totaling 6.641 billion yuan. Cumulatively, the green bond market has issued 4.43 trillion yuan across 3,822 bonds as of May 9, 2025 [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median return for actively managed equity, passive equity index, and bond ESG funds was 1.54%, 2.04%, and 0.14%, respectively, with low-carbon, sustainable development, and environmental governance themes performing particularly well [9] - As of May 9, 2025, there were 287 existing bank ESG wealth management products, with 2 new fixed-income ESG products launched this week, characterized by lower risk levels [9]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 事件： 1Q25实现收入5.41亿美元，同比增长17.6%，环比增长0.3%，符合此前公司5.3~5.5亿美元的营收指引区 间，主要系晶圆出货量提升。按晶圆尺寸分类，8英寸收入2.3亿美元，同比下降4%，环比下降8%，占比 42.7%，环比下降4.1pct；12英寸收入3.1亿美元，同比增长41%，环比增长8%，占比57.3%。盈利方面， 1Q25毛利率9.2%，略高于公司9%~11%指引区间的下限，同比上升2.8pct，环比下降2.2pct，同比提升系稼 动率增长，环比下降系折旧增长。1Q25归母净利润375万美元，不及2500万美元的市场预期，1Q24和 4Q24分别盈利3182万美元和亏损2520万美元。 公司预计整体需求缓慢复苏，中美关税政策带动模拟等产品需求结构性增长 1）虽宏观环境复杂，公司看好需求逐步复苏，部分产品景气度有望上升：虽关税政策和经济存在不确定 性，公司评估在关税未严重破坏需求下，2025年下游需求将逐步恢复。①下游方面，1Q25电子消费品收入 占比为64.3%，相关收入同比增长20.9%；工业及汽车收入占比为22.2%，收入同比增长16.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of TDK's micro motor assets by the controlling shareholder is expected to enhance the company's product line in high-end micro drive motors, positioning it as a leading global supplier across all product ranges [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The controlling shareholder, Qiutai Investment Co., Ltd., signed a framework agreement with Japan's TDK to acquire its micro motor assets, which includes over 2,000 patents, more than 2,000 employees, a skilled R&D team, specialized production equipment, and facilities in the Philippines [2]. - The final completion of the acquisition is anticipated in early 2026, with TDK remaining responsible for business operations until the deal is finalized [2]. Group 2: Product Line and Market Position - Micro drive motors are critical components for camera modules, influencing autofocus, optical zoom, and module size. The controlling shareholder previously invested in two companies focusing on mid-to-low-end products, while high-end suppliers remain dominated by overseas firms like TDK and Alps [3]. - This acquisition is expected to allow the controlling shareholder to cover the entire product line from high to low-end, enhancing its competitive position in the market [3]. Group 3: Vertical Integration and Profitability - The company and its controlling shareholder have emphasized vertical integration across the entire camera module supply chain, from upstream optical components to downstream modules and complete devices [4]. - The integration of key components internally or through affiliated suppliers is projected to improve cost structures and leverage technological synergies, thereby enhancing long-term profitability [4]. Group 4: Market Performance and Trends - From January to April, the shipment volume of camera modules decreased by 16.5% year-on-year, but the proportion of shipments for 32MP and above camera modules increased by 9.1 percentage points to 56.5%, indicating a significant optimization in product structure [5]. - The penetration rate of high-end OIS (Optical Image Stabilization) modules is increasing, and the share of high-end products in shipments is expected to rise, which may drive continuous improvement in profitability [6]. - The shipment volume of fingerprint recognition modules surged by 83.1% year-on-year, benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and product structure optimization, suggesting ongoing enhancements in profitability [6].