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【中芯国际(0981.HK+688981.SH)】1Q突发生产问题,2Q业绩有望筑底,自主可控趋势不改——25年一季度业绩点评
光大证券研究· 2025-05-12 09:18
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件: 收入拆分,1)应用:1Q智能手机、计算机与平板、消费电子、互联与可穿戴、工业与汽车分别占晶圆收 入的24%/17%/41%/8%/10%;2)尺寸:1Q 8英寸和12英寸晶圆收入环比增长18%和2%;3)地区:1Q中 国、美国、欧亚占比为84%、13%和3%,海外客户占比环比增长。1Q25体现中芯三大需求增长,1)美国 关税政策导致部分海外客户拉货,拉动1Q海外客户占比和8英寸占比,但因存货和运输受限,拉动幅度有 限;2)在地化生产带动成熟制程需求。中美关税摩擦驱动厂商倾向客户所在地生产,在地化趋势增强, 带动8英寸稼动率升至12英寸水平;3)工业和汽车需求出现触底反弹信号。 12英寸产线按照年增5万片的进度稳步扩产 ...
【基础化工】国产替代主线不动摇,看好MXD6、离子交换树脂、半导体材料——行业周报(250505-0509)(赵乃迪/胡星月)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-12 09:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese products and highlights the growing opportunities for domestic new materials in China, particularly in the context of MXD6, ion exchange resins, and semiconductor materials [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Tariffs and Market Dynamics - The U.S. has confirmed that additional tariffs on Chinese products have reached 145%, which is expected to increase the prices of certain American new materials and tighten the supply of imports [3]. - Domestic new materials are gaining favor among downstream customers due to their higher cost-performance ratio and timely technical responses [3]. Group 2: MXD6 Market Potential - MXD6, a high-performance engineering plastic, is projected to grow from $410 million in 2024 to $760 million by 2033, with a CAGR of approximately 7.1% [4]. - Domestic companies like Sinochem International and Qicai Chemical are making significant advancements in MXD6 production, with Qicai Chemical's 5000 tons/year MXD6 project entering trial production in September 2024 [4]. Group 3: Ion Exchange Resins Market - The high-end ion exchange resin market is dominated by multinational companies such as Dow Chemical and Lanxess, while domestic firms like Blue Sky Technology and Zhengguang Co. are making strides in achieving competitive performance [5]. - These domestic companies are gradually replacing imports in the domestic market and expanding their brand influence internationally [5]. Group 4: Semiconductor Materials Demand - The global semiconductor sales are expected to improve in 2024, reaching approximately $630.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 19.7% [6]. - The steady growth in the semiconductor market is anticipated to drive an increase in demand for semiconductor materials [6].
【龙湖集团(0960.HK)】资产运营巩固优势,短期销售压力仍存——动态跟踪(何缅南)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-11 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The company is facing short-term sales pressure despite maintaining a strong asset operation advantage, with a notable decline in contract sales and cash levels [2][3][4]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In April 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of 5.13 billion yuan (equity sales amount of 3.61 billion yuan) and a contract sales area of 415,000 square meters (equity sales area of 303,000 square meters) [2]. - For the first four months of 2025, the company reported a contract sales amount of 22.08 billion yuan and a contract sales area of 1.603 million square meters, with operating revenue of approximately 8.76 billion yuan (excluding tax) [2]. - The company's operational business rental income for 2024 was 13.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with a gross profit margin of 75% [3]. Group 2: Sales and Market Conditions - In 2024, the company recorded a cumulative contract sales amount of 101.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7%, and a sales area of 7.124 million square meters, down 34.0% [3]. - The average sales price in 2024 was 14,200 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%, with a continued decline in both volume and price observed in early 2025 [3]. Group 3: Financial Position - As of the end of 2024, the company's cash on hand was 49.42 billion yuan, with a cash short-term debt ratio of 1.03 times, indicating a slight decrease in cash levels compared to the previous year [4]. - The net debt ratio stood at 51.7%, with a liability-to-asset ratio of 57.2% after excluding advance payments [4].
【鸿腾精密(6088.HK)】25Q1受汇率影响净利润同比下降,AI算力和汽车业务双轮驱动收入增长——25Q1业绩点评(付天姿)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-11 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The company, Hong Teng Precision (6088.HK), reported its Q1 2025 earnings, showing a revenue increase but a decline in net profit, leading to a downward revision of revenue growth guidance for smartphone and system terminal products for the full year 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached $1.103 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, while net profit was $6.24 million, down 38% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 0.56%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points [4]. - Revenue from smartphones, network infrastructure, computers and consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and system terminal products for Q1 2025 were $189 million, $166 million, $203 million, $220 million, and $285 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6%, +46%, +13%, +89%, and -4% [4]. - The full-year 2025 revenue guidance for smartphones was revised down by over 15%, while the guidance for system terminal products remained flat [4]. Business Segments - The company focuses on three key areas: 5G AIoT, electric vehicles (EV), and audio, with expected revenue contributions of 33% in 2024 and a target of 40% by 2025 [5]. - The network infrastructure segment experienced rapid growth driven by increased demand for AI servers and platform upgrades, with expectations of double-digit growth (>15%) in Q2 2025 [6]. - The automotive business is expanding overseas and collaborating regionally to mitigate tariff impacts, with anticipated double-digit growth (>15%) in Q2 2025 [7]. - The acoustic business showed better-than-expected production yield, with a new production line in India expected to be operational by 2025 [8]. Consumer Electronics - In Q1 2025, smartphone revenue accounted for 17% of total revenue, with a decline in average selling price (ASP) attributed to a higher proportion of low-end models [9]. - The computer and consumer electronics segment represented 18% of total revenue, with expectations of a significant decline (>15%) in smartphone revenue and a slight increase (5%-15%) in computer and consumer electronics revenue in Q2 2025 [9].
【梦百合(603313.SH)】回购股份用于股权激励,彰显长期发展信心——股份回购预案点评(姜浩)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-11 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The company plans to repurchase shares through a centralized bidding method, with an amount ranging from 85 million to 170 million yuan, and a maximum repurchase price of 10.90 yuan per share [3][4]. Group 1: Share Repurchase - The repurchased shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, aiming to enhance the long-term incentive mechanism and boost employee motivation, thereby promoting sustainable development of the company [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The trend of mattress manufacturing returning to the U.S. continues, driven by anti-dumping and tariff policies. The U.S. has imposed high anti-dumping tax rates on mattresses from various countries, including China, Vietnam, Mexico, and Indonesia, with a significant decrease in mattress imports expected [5]. - The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) announced the continuation of the highest anti-dumping tax rate of up to 1732% on Chinese mattresses, extending the policy for at least another five years [5]. Group 3: Performance Outlook - The company's production efficiency in U.S. manufacturing bases is steadily improving, with profitability achieved in 2024. The ongoing development of online business and retail channel clients is expected to enhance profit contributions from the North American market [6]. - In the domestic market, the company is advancing store upgrades and channel diversification, integrating various brands to create a one-stop home furnishing consumption scenario, which is anticipated to enhance competitiveness and brand influence [6].
【北京君正(300223.SZ)】升级存储产品制程,推进3D DRAM研发——跟踪报告之八(刘凯/孙啸)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-11 13:28
工业与车规市场保持优势,布局先进工艺制程 公司多年来专注于工业和汽车等高可靠性领域的应用,目前正在紧密跟踪先进工艺制程的发展情况,选择 适合产品需求的最经济合理的工艺节点,这同时也是公司对产品成本控制的重要手段之一。针对市场对大 容量 DDR4 、 LPDDR4 的需求趋势,公司 8Gb DDR4 、 8Gb LPDDR4 、 16Gb LPDDR4 已完成量产。根 据目前汽车、工业市场对 DDR4 、 LPDDR4 不断增长的需求,为优化公司产品性价比,公司进行了基于 21nm 、 20nm 、 18nm 、 16nm 等工艺的 DRAM 新产品开发,并预计将于 2025 年向客户提供工程样 品。 顺应 AI 浪潮,开启 3D DRAM 研发 点击注册小程序 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告 ...
【光大研究每日速递】20250512
光大证券研究· 2025-05-11 13:28
Group 1 - The electronic industry showed a significant growth in Q1 2025, with a total net profit of 83.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [4] - The semiconductor sector and AI applications are highlighted as key areas for investment, with expectations for higher growth rates in applications such as edge computing, smart driving, and robotics [4] - The domestic computing power industry chain is expected to benefit continuously, indicating a positive outlook for the technology sector [4] Group 2 - MAOGEPING, founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, has successfully penetrated the high-end market in the domestic cosmetics industry, with two major brands under its umbrella [5] - Longfor Group reported a contract sales amount of 5.13 billion yuan in April 2025, with a total sales area of 415,000 square meters [6] - Beijing Junzheng is advancing its 3D DRAM research and development while focusing on a product strategy that integrates computing, storage, and analog chips [6] Group 3 - Hongteng Precision's Q1 2025 revenue increased, but net profit declined due to exchange rate impacts, with a focus on growth in the 5G AIoT, EV, and audio sectors [7] - Mengbaihe plans to repurchase shares worth 85 to 170 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans, signaling confidence in long-term development [8] - Budweiser APAC reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.461 billion USD, with a year-on-year decline of 7.5% in organic growth, primarily affected by the Chinese market [9]
【毛戈平(1318.HK)】厚积薄发,东方美妆容天下——投资价值分析报告(姜浩/孙未未/朱洁宇)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-11 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the success of MAOGEPING (MGP) as the only domestic high-end cosmetics brand in China, driven by the founder's expertise and influence, achieving significant revenue and profit growth in recent years [3]. Company Summary - MAOGEPING was founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping and includes two major beauty brands: MAOGEPING and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, along with a makeup artistry training business [3]. - In 2023, MGP ranked 12th among the top 15 high-end beauty brands in China, with a market share of 1.8% [3]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6%, and a net profit of 881 million yuan, with a growth of 32.8% [3]. - From 2021 to 2024, the compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue and net profit are expected to be 35.0% and 38.6%, respectively [3]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry is in a growth phase, with skincare and makeup markets reaching 463 billion yuan and 116.8 billion yuan in 2023, respectively [4]. - The CAGR for skincare and makeup from 2018 to 2023 was 8.4% and 4.7%, with projections for 2023 to 2028 at 8.7% and 8.4% [4]. - The high-end segment is currently dominated by international brands, but domestic brands are increasingly emerging, with a shift from marketing-heavy strategies to brand development [4]. - The positioning of domestic and international brands has diversified, with high-end domestic brands gaining traction and pricing comparable to international counterparts [4]. Competitive Advantages - The brand's strength lies in its deep-rooted expertise as a makeup artist brand, which generates significant consumer recognition and loyalty [5]. - MGP has successfully created unique products that reflect Eastern aesthetics, particularly in the facial makeup category, with a comprehensive SKU layout compared to both domestic and international brands [5]. - The combination of product quality and enhanced service experiences strengthens brand perception and differentiates MGP from international competitors [5].
【电子】25Q1电子行业AI、PCB等领域净利润同比增速较快——电子行业2025年一季报总结(刘凯/黄筱茜)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-11 13:28
查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户,用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便, 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 25Q1电子行业中显示、AI供应链、PCB归母净利润同比增速较快 2025年Q1全行业(A股)670家公司归母净利润为830.7亿元,同比+18%,环比+13%。我们把电子行业分 为23个子行业,其中,25Q1归母净利润同比增速排名前3的子行业为显示(25Q1归母净利润为25.1亿元, 同比+565%,下同)、AI供应链(128.2亿元,+65%)、PCB(52.9亿元,+58%)。 细分领域中,显示-设备、PCB-PCB材料、显示-面板、LED-LED芯片、消费电子-盖板等子行业25Q1归母 净利润同比增速较快。74个细分领域中25Q1归母净利润增速排名前5的细分领域为:显示-设备(25Q1归 母净利润为0.75亿元,同比+1172%,下 ...
【百威亚太(1876.HK)】受中国市场拖累,25Q1量价均承压——2025年一季度业绩点评(陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-11 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of Budweiser APAC in Q1 2025, highlighting a decline in revenue and profit, with specific regional performance variations and challenges in the Chinese market [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Budweiser APAC reported Q1 2025 revenue of $1.461 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 7.5%. Normalized EBITDA was $485 million, down 11.2% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $234 million, a decrease of 18.5% [3]. - The company achieved a total sales volume of 1.9741 million kiloliters in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1%. Revenue per hectoliter decreased by 1.5% [4]. Regional Performance Analysis - In the Eastern region, Budweiser APAC saw revenue and normalized EBITDA increase by 11.7% and 24.4% year-on-year, respectively, with sales volume up by 11.9%. However, revenue per hectoliter remained flat [4]. - The Western region faced challenges, with revenue and normalized EBITDA declining by 11.7% and 17.6% year-on-year, respectively. Sales volume decreased by 8.6%, and revenue per hectoliter fell by 3.4% [4]. - In China, the company experienced a significant decline, with revenue and normalized EBITDA down 12.7% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively. Sales volume decreased by 9.2%, and revenue per hectoliter fell by 3.9% [5]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on non-ready-to-drink channels to drive premiumization, which has shown positive results with a 70% year-on-year increase in sales of its zero-sugar Harbin Ice Pure Beer [5]. - Budweiser APAC is enhancing engagement with younger consumers as part of its strategy to improve market performance [5].