以下文章来源于资本深潜号 ，作者资本深潜号 资本深潜号 . 专注资本背后的硬核故事 作者徐行 编辑袁畅 一年前的国庆之前，中证 A500ETF 恰是当时最火的基金。 怎么说呢？ 建仓期就是在股市暴涨中度过的 。 对于基民而言，这是传说中的 " 中国版标普 500" ，走过路过不可错过的指数品种。 对于机构而言， A500 可能是最后一个"宽基指数"，前期错过了沪深 300 ，上证 50 ，创业板指数盛宴的大型中型基金公司全部扎堆在这个指数里。 所以， A500ETF 在当时所有的"待遇"都是顶级的，首批 10 只基金更是个个都成为了当时基金管理公司的"重点发行标的"。几乎所有的宣传都"剑指"沪 深 300 ，而后者是 A 股市场上挂钩 ETF 规模最大的指数。 一年后，目标实现了多少？ 收益，跑赢沪深 300ETF 了么？ 收益跑赢，回撤也跑赢，初舞台很完美了。 原因，中小盘股和新兴板块表现不错 据基金公司总结，从编制方案看，相比沪深 300 ，中证 A500 有三个主要特点： 一是行业相对均衡，新兴行业的权重更高，不会存在极端的行业超配； 二是选取各行业龙头，龙头荟萃； 三是市值分布更广，既有大盘风格底色， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of the "Qijing" brand, a collaboration between GAC and Huawei, as a new player in the competitive high-end new energy vehicle market in China, emphasizing its unique integration of traditional manufacturing and cutting-edge technology [1][10]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - The appointment of Liu Jiaming as CEO of Qijing, witnessed by top executives from both GAC and Huawei, signals a strategic shift where Huawei's role extends beyond technology to core governance and decision-making [5][7]. - The frequent interactions between the leadership of both companies indicate Qijing's significant strategic position, moving expectations from a simple combination of GAC manufacturing and Huawei technology to a deeper exploration of their collaborative model [7][10]. Group 2: Leadership and Expertise - Liu Jiaming's background, including his previous roles at GAC and his experience with Toyota, positions him as a capable leader for Qijing, enhancing confidence in the brand's potential [9][12]. - The high-profile nature of the leadership appointment reflects the strong expectations both GAC and Huawei have for Qijing, indicating a shared commitment to the brand's success [9][12]. Group 3: Unique Integration Model - Qijing represents a deeper integration model between a major automotive group and a technology giant, moving beyond traditional partnerships to a co-working model that fosters innovation [10][14]. - The introduction of Huawei's IPD and IPMS systems into Qijing signifies a comprehensive integration of technology and manufacturing processes, aiming for a seamless product development and marketing approach [13][14]. Group 4: Market Positioning and Competition - Qijing is positioned as a high-end new energy brand, entering a competitive landscape where it will directly compete with established players like NIO and Zeekr, as well as GAC's own Haobo brand [15][16]. - The brand's strategy includes targeting the high-end market segment, as evidenced by its recent brand招商大会, which attracted luxury car dealers, indicating a clear intent to establish a foothold in this competitive space [15][16]. Group 5: Future Potential - The collaboration between Huawei's advanced technology and GAC's manufacturing capabilities raises expectations for Qijing to replicate successful models in the intelligent vehicle sector, potentially elevating the overall market for Chinese brands [16].

摩根大通宣布将继续作为 2025 上海劳力士大师赛的钻石赞助商，支持这项亚洲唯一的 ATP1000 赛事。今年的上海劳力士大师赛于 9 月 29 日到 10 月 12 日举行，将汇聚全球顶尖网球明星上演 两周不间断的超级赛事。 * 以上内容不构成投资建议，不代表刊登 平台 之观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 摩根大通在中国运营已有 100 多年，公司不断夯实在华业务实力和平台，以满足中国和全球客户不 断变化的需求。目前摩根大通是中国唯一一家全资拥有四大本地法律实体的外资金融机构，包括本地 法人银行、证券公司、期货公司以及资产管理公司。 摩根大通中国区联席首席执行官何耀东 表示： " 多年来，这项享有盛誉的赛事为推动中国乃至亚洲地 区职业网球运动的发展发挥了重要作用，并激励着新一代中国网球运动员和网球爱好者们共同享受这 项运动带来的乐趣。我们很荣幸通过持续赞助大师赛为网球运动在中国的发展尽了一份力。摩根大通 在华运营已超过一个世纪，对这项赛事的长期支持也充分体现了我们对中国市场客户、员工和社区的 一贯承诺。 " 摩根大通中国区联席首席执行官陈妍妮 表示： " 摩根大通很自豪从 2018 年起就支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategy of holding large amounts of cryptocurrency as corporate reserves is facing significant challenges as Bitcoin prices continue to decline, with recent market turmoil leading to substantial liquidations and a drop in Bitcoin below the $110,000 support level [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a large-scale liquidation, with Bitcoin falling below $110,000 and Ethereum dropping below $3,900 [1]. - In contrast, the price of physical silver has surged, surpassing $45, marking a 14-year high [1]. Group 2: Company-Specific Concerns - Peter Schiff, a prominent critic of Bitcoin, has warned that companies holding Bitcoin as an asset are entering a "brutal bear market," raising doubts about the sustainability of their business models [4][5]. - MicroStrategy (MSTR), known for its significant Bitcoin holdings, has seen its stock price drop sharply, falling below $300 for the first time since April, effectively erasing its gains for the year [9][11]. - MSTR's stock price is highly correlated with Bitcoin prices, and the recent weakness in Bitcoin has directly impacted MSTR's stock performance [11]. Group 3: Financial Risks and Strategies - Schiff has previously indicated that many companies are emulating MSTR's founder Michael Saylor's unconventional business strategy, but few have acknowledged the significant decline in MSTR's stock price [12]. - MSTR's recent Bitcoin purchases have been partially funded by selling its own stock, which raises concerns about financial risk during a downturn in asset prices [14]. - Technical analysis suggests that MSTR's stock price outlook is bleak, with warnings that failure to maintain current support levels could lead to further declines, potentially down to $240 [15].

这么做将使美联储暴露于政治影响之下，从而削弱公众对美联储独立性的信心，并危及美国货币政策的公信力和有效性。 周四，所有在世的美联储前主席，以及多位前美国财政部长、前白宫经济顾问和经济学家敦促美国最高法院，不要允许美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库 克。他们认为，这样做会令美国经济健康岌岌可危，警告称美联储独立性的任何削弱都可能导致通胀上升。 上述团体在周四提交给美国最高法院大法官的"法庭之友"意见书中表示： 如果在库克对免职提出挑战期间就允许特朗普将她解职，将会削弱公众对美联储的信任，并破坏稳定物价、增加就业以及调节长期利率的努力。 那些 " 密切关注美联储 " 的行业正在仔细观察这场争议，以判断美联储未来的可信度。如果外界看到一名理事会成员因仍在诉讼中争议的指控而被罢免，那么这 些受众将更加怀疑美联储的独立性及其对长期低通胀政策的承诺。 这些前官员们敦促美国最高法院考虑他们在美国和全球政策制定中的经验。他们的经验让他们确信，央行独立性的削弱会导致更高的通胀和借贷成本。 文件引用了前美联储主席伯恩斯（Arthur Burns）的例子。20世纪70年代初，当时的美国总统尼克松施压伯恩斯，通过降息来降低失业率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the financial industry is experiencing a phase of internal competition despite the widespread adoption of AI for optimizing customer service and marketing, with no fundamental changes in user experience. It highlights JD Technology's innovative approach to reshape financial services through a comprehensive intelligent agent matrix that focuses on wealth management, payment, and risk control [1][3]. Group 1: AI Financial Innovation - JD Technology aims to demonstrate that the competition in AI finance has shifted from a focus on single model technology to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, leveraging its unique "native integration" organizational structure [3][4]. - The systemic reconstruction capability derived from industry insights creates a significant barrier to entry, as the competition now emphasizes practical application over theoretical technology [4][9]. Group 2: Wealth Management Challenges - The core issue in wealth management is not a lack of information but a deficiency in trust, as users feel overwhelmed by the abundance of data without confidence in decision-making [5][6]. - JD Technology's "Jing Xiaobei" addresses this by focusing on building trust through personalized financial advice, moving from merely providing information to understanding user needs and preferences [6][7]. Group 3: Payment Experience Transformation - The payment industry has been caught in a cycle of optimizing app operations without addressing the fundamental user experience of switching from physical to digital interfaces [7][8]. - "JoyGlance" aims to revolutionize this by allowing transactions to occur seamlessly through natural human behaviors, thus creating a new consumption entry point that transcends traditional payment methods [8]. Group 4: Comprehensive Solutions - The integration of wealth management, payment, and risk control creates a closed-loop system that offers a holistic financial service rather than isolated tools, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [8][11]. - JD Technology's ability to navigate complex scenarios, such as the national subsidy program for consumer goods, showcases its strategic advantage in combining consumer finance and supply chain finance to create effective solutions [11][12]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Positioning - JD Technology's decade-long commitment to understanding real industry needs has positioned it favorably in the AI financial landscape, emphasizing the importance of practical application over mere technological prowess [13][16]. - The company's unique organizational structure fosters collaboration between AI scientists and financial experts, ensuring that technological advancements are closely aligned with business needs [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the solid foundation of AI investment themes, Barclays highlights that a slowdown in data center capital expenditure could pose the largest systemic risk to the U.S. stock market, with a potential 20% decline in capital spending leading to a 3-4% downward pressure on S&P 500 earnings and a 10-13% drop in valuations [1][30]. Group 1: Potential Risks - The report identifies three major potential "landmines" that could trigger this crisis: 1. **Technology and Efficiency Risk**: Rapid improvements in AI model efficiency may lead to overbuilt computing facilities, reminiscent of the "dark fiber" tragedy during the dot-com bubble [2][9]. 2. **Physical Limitations Risk**: Increasing electricity shortages are becoming a hard constraint on data center construction, potentially cooling capital expenditures [2][14]. 3. **Liquidity Risk**: As capital expenditure growth begins to exceed cash flow generation, financing pressures and dwindling VC capital could become critical issues [3][20]. Group 2: AI Investment Fundamentals - The report affirms the robust foundation of AI investment themes, noting that even with an expected annual growth of 30% in capital expenditures, the demand for computing power still far exceeds supply [4][5]. - The capital expenditure to sales ratio for current tech giants is approximately 25%, which is considered relatively prudent compared to over 40% during the telecom bubble [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Barclays emphasizes that a slowdown in data center investment could significantly impact the overall U.S. economy, contributing about 1 percentage point to the 1.4% GDP growth forecast for the first half of 2025 [25][28]. - The negative resonance between macroeconomic factors and industry-specific issues poses a greater threat to the stock market than isolated industry adjustments [29]. Group 4: Earnings and Valuation Impact - The analysis indicates that a 20% decline in data center capital expenditure over the next two years would have a relatively mild impact on earnings per share (EPS), with a projected 3-4% drag on S&P 500 EPS for fiscal year 2026 [31]. - However, the impact on valuations would be severe, potentially leading to a 10-13% compression in the overall S&P 500 index, with sectors directly benefiting from AI infrastructure facing average P/E compression of 15-20% [32][33].

"9.24"行情一周年，中国资产怎么样了？ 去年9月24日，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会联合出台一揽子金融政策，旨在稳定市场和提振经济，引发资本市场强烈反响。 当时，亿万富翁对冲基金创始人David Tepper曾高呼"买入一切中国资产"。 一年后的今天，他的判断被证明是对的，中国资产在此期间经历了一轮全球瞩目的 强劲牛市。 过去一年，中国股市的表现远超全球主要市场。 A股总市值首次突破100万亿元， 增幅达45%。上证综指从2700点水平飙升至3900点，而以科技股为主的科 创50指数和创业板指数更是分别录得了115%和110%的惊人涨幅，同期标普500指数和纳斯达克指数的回报率则分别为16%和24%。 展望未来，此轮涨势或许才刚刚开始。 "9.24"一周年成绩单：百万亿市值与普涨格局 回顾"924"以来的一年，中国A股市场的表现堪称惊人。截至2025年9月24日，A股总市值从约70万亿元人民币增长至超过100万亿元，增幅高达45%。 在此期间，超过3000只A股股票涨幅逾50%，近1500只股票价格翻倍。 从板块来看，科技股无疑是本轮上涨的领头羊。 电信、电子和计算机等行业的股票录得了最高的板块涨幅 ...

在批评鲍威尔的同时，贝森特对新上任的美联储理事米兰大加赞赏 ，称其为理事会注入了"新鲜血液"。 由特朗普总统提名、并于上周美联储会议前获得参议 院批准的米兰，是一位激进降息的倡导者。 美国财政部长贝森特罕见地公开表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的不满，批评其未能为降息建立清晰的议程，凸显出美国政府与美联储在货币政策路径上的分歧日 益加剧。 贝森特周三在接受媒体采访时表示， 当前的利率"限制性过强，需要下调"。 他指出， 对于鲍威尔未能在年底前释放至少降息100至150个基点的信号，他感 到"有些惊讶"。 贝森特的此番言论，与鲍威尔前一日的审慎表态形成鲜明对比。鲍威尔周二在罗德岛州的一场活动中重申，美联储正面临劳动力市场走弱和通胀上行风险并存 的"挑战性局面"。他强调，双向风险意味着不存在"无风险的路径"，暗示了其在进一步放宽政策上的谨慎态度。 这场公开的政策分歧，发生在白宫正在物色鲍威尔继任者的微妙时刻。贝森特透露， 他正在面试11名候选人以接替鲍威尔的职位，他正在寻找一位思想开放的 人来担任美联储主席。 新任理事的异议之声 鲍威尔的审慎立场 在权衡未来决策时，鲍威尔正努力在两大对立的经济风险之间寻找平衡。据他在普罗 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's CEO, Wu Yongming, announced that the ultimate goal is to achieve Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI), which can self-iterate and surpass human capabilities, positioning General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) as just the starting point [1][2]. Group 1: AI Strategy and Investment - Alibaba is committed to two main paths: open-sourcing Tongyi Qianwen to create "the Android of the AI era" and building a Super AI Cloud as the "next-generation computer" [2]. - The company is advancing a three-year plan to invest 380 billion RMB in AI infrastructure, with ongoing additional investments [3]. - This strategic shift is seen as a critical validation point for the capital market, where the focus is on the business turning point that can ignite investor enthusiasm [4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Transformation - Over the past two years, Alibaba has transformed from a struggling tech giant to a leading player, with its stock price increasing by over 200% due to a clear AI strategy and decisive execution [5][6]. - Wu Yongming's leadership marked a return to a technology-driven focus, addressing previous challenges and signaling a strategic pivot back to the company's foundational principles [8]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Development - Wu Yongming's revival plan includes two core actions: improving business health by addressing past issues and building a "full-stack AI" system to secure future advantages [13]. - The "public cloud first" strategy aims to streamline operations by focusing on core public cloud products, leading to a significant increase in revenue quality and profitability [14][15]. - Alibaba's cloud revenue growth has surged from single digits to 26% in the latest quarter, exceeding market expectations [15][17]. Group 4: Full-Stack AI and Applications - The full-stack AI approach aims to create a unique soft and hard integration moat in China, with a focus on comprehensive technology offerings [18]. - The foundational layer consists of robust AI infrastructure and self-developed chips, with a planned investment of over 380 billion RMB for AI hardware and cloud infrastructure over three years [20]. - The Tongyi model family has rapidly evolved, with over 300 open-source models, making it the largest open-source model family globally [24]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Market Leadership - Alibaba Cloud's quarterly revenue has shown a "V-shaped reversal," with a 26% year-on-year growth, marking a significant recovery from previous low growth rates [31]. - AI-related revenue has consistently grown by triple digits for eight consecutive quarters, accounting for over 20% of external commercial revenue [31]. - Reports indicate that Alibaba Cloud holds a 35.8% market share in China's AI cloud market, significantly outpacing competitors [31][32]. Group 6: Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Since Wu Yongming's appointment, Alibaba's stock price has rebounded from approximately $68 to over $165, reflecting strong market confidence [34]. - Major investment banks have raised their target prices for Alibaba, citing its full-stack AI products and robust computing demand as key factors [35]. - The capital market has shown strong support for Alibaba's AI-driven revival, positioning the company as a central player in China's AI technology narrative [36][38].