不过 资深央行记者 警告， 此类做法通常与新兴市场弱央行相关，可能引发通胀、危机和经济停滞。 7 月 5 日， 《华尔街日报》资深央行记者 Greg Ip 发表了一篇分析文章， 特朗普近期密集要求美联储主席鲍威尔降息， 或让位给愿意降息的人选。 与 以往不同，这次降息要求服务于其财政目标 ——为国会刚通过的减税法案提供融资支持。 文章表示，特朗普正试图打破预算赤字与利率之间的传统联系。传统经济学理论认为，大规模借贷会推高利率，从而抵消减税带来的好处。但特朗普的策 略是通过向美联储施压，强制降低利率来配合其财政政策目标。 美国总统特朗普正在施压美联储降息以降低赤字融资成本 ，这一 " 财政主导 " 策略目前获得投资者支持，推动股市创下新高。 历史上，央行与政府财政长期交织在一起。英格兰银行成立于 1694 年，就是为了帮助君主制筹集资金。 美联储在一战和二战期间都曾协助政府融资，上世纪 60 年代为配合财政部发债而避免紧缩政策，助长了通胀。 这种 " 财政主导 " 模式在历史上通常与阿根廷等新兴市场的薄弱央行相关联，往往导致通胀、危机和经济停滞的组合。然而，在短期内，这种模式可能成 为强有力的经济刺激手段，这也 ...

当地时间7月5日，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称，"美国党"于当日成立，以还 给人民自由。 近期，马斯克与美国总统特朗普就"大而美"税收和支出法案产生分歧。6月30日，马斯克猛批特朗普 力推的所谓"大而美"税收和支出法案并表示，如果法案通过，第二天就会成立"美国党"。 来源：央视新闻 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。法案签署成法的几个 小时前，马斯克再次在社交平台上发布有关建立新党派"美国党"的投票。 据了解，马斯克于6月5日首次提出这一想法。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure and is utilizing innovative financing tools to support this strategic investment [1][11]. Group 1: Financing Strategy - Alibaba announced the issuance of zero-coupon exchangeable bonds totaling approximately 12 billion HKD, maturing in 2032, with Alibaba Health shares as the underlying asset [1][2]. - This financing method is a low-cost option anchored to the value of Alibaba Health's equity, reflecting institutional investors' optimism about its future stock price [1][3]. - The initial exchange ratio for the bonds is set at approximately 160,500 shares of Alibaba Health for every 1 million HKD of bonds, with an initial exchange price of 6.23 HKD per share, which is 37.83% higher than the closing price on the announcement day [6]. Group 2: Market Context - Since September 24 of the previous year, Hong Kong stocks have performed well, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 40% [1]. - Alibaba Health's stock price has also increased by 40% year-to-date, contributing to a lower financing cost for Alibaba [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The financing will enhance Alibaba's focus on its core strategies in e-commerce and AI, with significant investments planned for international market expansion and AI infrastructure [8][11]. - Alibaba's financial health remains strong, with a net cash position of 366.4 billion yuan as of March 31, 2025, and a low debt ratio compared to peers in the Chinese internet sector [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The funds raised will be directed towards cloud computing infrastructure and international e-commerce development, with AI seen as a long-term growth engine [11]. - Alibaba's international e-commerce business is currently in an expansion phase but has not yet achieved profitability, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 15.137 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025 [11].

随着特朗普政府的大规模减税与支出法案正式落地，为弥补未来数万亿美元的财政赤字，美国财政部或将开启短期国债的"供应洪流"。 市场已经开始对未来的供应压力做出反应。对短期国债供过于求的担忧，已直接体现在价格上—— 1个月期短期国债的收益率自本周一以来已出现明显上涨 。 这标志着市场焦点已从今年早些时候对30年期长债的抛售担忧，彻底转向了前端利率曲线。 万亿赤字压顶，美国短期国债市场将迎"供应洪流" 供应闸门即将大开，市场的承接能力成为新的核心议题。目前，市场对此似乎抱有信心，其底气来源于货币市场中积压的巨量流动性。 先看供给端。 目前，美国财政部借款顾问委员会（TBAC）建议的短期国债占未偿还债务总额的比例上限为20%左右。但美银的利率策略师团队预测，为消化 新增赤字，这一比例可能很快将攀升至25%。这意味着，市场需要准备好迎接远超官方建议水平的短期票据供应。 新法案的落地，首先带来的是对未来财政状况的严峻预期。据无党派的国会预算办公室（CBO）测算，该法案将在2025至2034财年间，为美国增加高达3.4万 亿美元的国家赤字。 面对巨大的融资需求，发行短期国债成为一个兼具成本效益与决策层偏好的选择。 首先，从成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant potential of companies that provide essential tools and services in emerging industries, exemplified by Anysphere, which has rapidly grown in the AI programming tool sector, achieving a valuation of $9 billion after a recent $900 million funding round [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Anysphere, the developer of the AI programming tool Cursor, was founded just three years ago and has completed multiple funding rounds, raising a total of $1.6 billion in less than a year [7][12]. - The company’s valuation skyrocketed by 380% compared to its previous funding round, reaching approximately $9 billion [4][14]. - Cursor aims to simplify programming for users with no coding experience, positioning itself as a crucial tool in the AI era [18]. Group 2: Business Performance - Anysphere reported revenues exceeding $1 billion within 14 months of its inception, setting a record for the fastest startup to achieve this milestone [14]. - By June, the company announced an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $500 million, further establishing its rapid growth trajectory [15]. - Cursor's user base includes over half of the Fortune 500 companies, generating nearly 1 billion lines of code daily [28]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Anysphere faces competition from established AI programming tools like GitHub Copilot and Windsurf, but aims to differentiate itself through its advanced understanding of projects and conversational interface [23][25]. - The company’s unique selling proposition lies in its ability to automate complex programming tasks and adapt to individual coding styles, enhancing productivity [26][27]. Group 4: Market Trends - The article notes a high concentration of venture capital in the AI sector, with AI startups capturing 70% of investment in the U.S. and Canada [32]. - In contrast, investment in biotech has plummeted by 92% since its peak in 2018, indicating a shift in investor focus towards AI [34][35]. - The current investment landscape raises concerns about liquidity and the sustainability of funding for other sectors as capital flows heavily into AI [33].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Securities and Exchange Board has accused Jane Street of maliciously manipulating the Indian stock market, particularly through short-selling bank stock indices, leading to significant profits at the expense of retail investors [1][8]. Group 1: Allegations and Regulatory Actions - Jane Street is required to pay $550 million in alleged illegal profits and faces a potential fine of up to $1.65 billion under Indian law [1][9]. - The investigation was triggered by a lawsuit filed by Jane Street against Millennium Management, which inadvertently revealed its trading strategies in the Indian options market [8]. - The Indian Securities and Exchange Board detailed Jane Street's manipulative tactics in a 105-page temporary injunction, indicating a systematic approach to inflating stock prices before profiting from options [1][8]. Group 2: Trading Strategy Breakdown - Jane Street's trading strategy involved three phases: accumulation of bank stock index components, aggressive selling of call options while buying put options, and systematic liquidation of positions to realize profits [2][3][5]. - On January 17, 2024, Jane Street reportedly made a profit of approximately ₹73.493 billion (around $86 million) in a single day, with a net trading value of about $5.11 billion, making it the second-largest trader in the market [2][3]. - The company established a long position in the BANKNIFTY index while simultaneously creating a short position that was seven times larger, leading to a significant imbalance [3][5]. Group 3: Financial Impact and Market Position - In 2023, Jane Street earned $1 billion from its Indian options strategy, which constituted 14% of its global net trading income of $10.5 billion [8]. - Despite the regulatory challenges, Jane Street's overall net trading income nearly doubled to $20.5 billion in 2024, indicating that the Indian ban, while embarrassing, is not catastrophic for the company [8][9]. - The company has denied the allegations, asserting that its trading activities were aimed at managing options exposure risk [10].

未来数年，通胀上升似乎难以避免，而美国财政部增加短债发行量的决定，很可能成为推升通胀的结构性因素。 国库券作为期限在一年以下的债务工具，比长期债券更具"货币性"。 历史数据显示，国库券在未偿债务总额中所占比例的升降，往往领先于通胀的长期起落， 这更像是因果关系，而非简单的相关性 。 美国财政部倾向于增加短期债券发行的策略，正在实质性削弱美联储的独立性，货币政策制定权或将事实上转移至财政部门。 本周，美国财政部长贝森特明确表态，倾向于更多依赖短期债务融资，这一立场与其此前批评前任过度依赖短期国债的表态形成反差，该策略实质上相当于财 政版量化宽松政策。 从短期看，财政部转向更多发行短期国债将刺激风险资产价格进一步脱离长期公允价值，并在结构上推高通胀水平 。 更为深远的影响在于，这将严重限制美联储自由制定反通胀货币政策的能力，形成财政主导格局 。美联储的实际独立性近年来已受到侵蚀，而短期国债发行量 的激增将进一步剥夺央行自由制定货币政策的空间。 短债为何是通胀的"助燃剂" 本轮通胀周期的抬头，其先兆便是2010年代中期开始的国库券发行量回升，当时美国财政赤字首次出现顺周期增长。 此外，近年来回购市场的爆发式增长也放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the official non-farm payroll data and the ADP private sector employment report indicates a complex situation in the U.S. labor market, raising questions about which data to trust [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% [1]. - The ADP report, however, showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1][2]. - The government sector added 73,000 jobs in June, accounting for nearly half of the total non-farm employment growth, with significant contributions from state and local education sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The private sector only added 74,000 jobs, with the goods-producing sector contributing a mere 6,000 jobs, while the service sector added 68,000 jobs, primarily in healthcare and social assistance [3]. - Analysts suggest that the unusual growth in government employment may be due to seasonal adjustment issues, particularly related to the school year [3]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - Despite the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, this is attributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.4% in May to 62.3% in June [4]. - Over the past two months, household surveys indicated a reduction of 603,000 jobs, while the labor force shrank by 755,000, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate [4]. - Analysts warn that if the anticipated rise in unemployment is concentrated in upcoming reports, it could pose dovish risks for Federal Reserve policy [7]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The unexpected decline in the unemployment rate may lead Federal Reserve officials to adopt a wait-and-see approach in their upcoming meetings, although a rate cut of 25 basis points is still expected to begin in September [6].

来源：中国房地产报（微信号：china-crb）记者许倩 2025年下半年楼市调控怎么走，北京作出部署。 7月1日， 北京市政府 召开常务会议，研究推进"住有所居"有关工作。会议强调，"住有所居"是"七有""五性"的重要内容，住房问题既是民生问题也是发 展问题。 要加快健全多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度，完善"保障+市场"住房供应体系，不断优化房地产政策 ，更好满足市民群众高品 质、多样化居住需要。 这是对1个月前国务院常务会议精神的贯彻落实，也是对2025年北京市政府工作报告内容的进一步强调和推进。 6月13日，国务院常务会议提出，"进一步优化现有政策，提升政策实施的系统有效性""更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，为市场释放了政策进一步加 力的积极信号。作为一线超大城市的北京，经济要挑大梁，需要储备新的政策。 根据会议精神， 北京房地产市场将步入高品质商品房与保障房"双轨制"阶段。这样一个新的定调，意味着市场的归市场，保障的归保障；市场部分可能会 放开更多的限制性措施。 首都经济贸易大学京津冀房地产研究院院长赵秀池分析称，完善"保障+市场"住房供应体系，需要精准建立住房分层供应体系，对低收入群体 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant sales challenges, with a 13.5% year-over-year decline in global vehicle sales in Q2 and a similar decline in Q1, attributed to a lack of new models and internal turmoil [1][2][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Tesla's Q2 global vehicle sales dropped by 13.5% year-over-year, following a 13% decline in Q1, marking one of the worst sales periods for the company [1]. - The Cybertruck, Tesla's only new model in the past five years, has not performed well in terms of sales [3]. - The overall electric vehicle market in the U.S. saw a decline of approximately 7% in Q2, impacting Tesla's sales [4]. Group 2: Strategic Shift - Despite the automotive sales challenges, Elon Musk has shifted focus towards autonomous driving taxis and humanoid robots, indicating a long-term vision beyond current sales figures [2][12]. - Musk has stated that the autonomous taxi project could potentially add $5 trillion to $10 trillion to Tesla's market value, with expectations of having fully autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads by the end of 2026 [13]. Group 3: Internal and External Challenges - Tesla has experienced significant internal upheaval, with key executives leaving, including Omead Afshar, who was responsible for North American and European sales and manufacturing [7][9]. - The political activities of Musk have also affected Tesla's brand perception, with recent public disputes with former President Trump [9][10]. Group 4: Market Valuation - Despite the challenges in the automotive sector, investors continue to support Musk's vision, which has helped maintain Tesla's market valuation close to $1 trillion [2][13]. - Analysts suggest that the valuation of Tesla's automotive business is less than $100 per share, significantly lower than its current stock price of around $300, indicating a disconnect between market expectations and actual business performance [14][15].