9月，中国央行连续第11个月增持黄金，速度较上月有所放缓。 10月7日周二，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 截至2025年9月末，我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美 元，较8月末上升165亿美元，升幅为0.50%。 9月，黄金录得10%以上累计涨幅，创十四年最大月度涨幅。 高盛此前分析表示，近期流入黄金ETF的资金规模远超模型预期，表明西方个人投资者将资金从固收等 传统资产转向黄金的趋势可能正在成为现实。高盛此前曾测算，若私人持有的美债资金中仅有1%转向 黄金，金价理论上可能升至近5000美元/盎司。 该行重申，黄金仍然是其"最高信念"的做多大宗商品推荐。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 中国央行9月末黄金储备报7406万盎司（约2303.523吨），环比增加4万盎司（约1.24吨），为连续第 11个月增持黄金。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年9月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指 数小幅震荡，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, an increase of $600 or nearly 14% from the previous forecast of $4,300, driven by a 17% rise in gold prices since August 26 due to "sticky" fund inflows, primarily from Western ETF investments and central bank purchases [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Forecast and Drivers - The forecast indicates a potential 23% increase in gold prices over the next two years, with central bank purchases contributing 19 percentage points and a 5 percentage point contribution from increased ETF holdings due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][8]. - The key drivers of the recent gold price surge are identified as Western ETF inflows and central bank purchases, contrasting with stable speculative positions [4][8]. - Despite the higher starting point, Goldman Sachs maintains its expectation of a 23% price increase by the end of 2026, reflecting structural changes in the gold market driven by central banks and institutional investors [5][10]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases and Market Dynamics - Central bank purchases are expected to average 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, with emerging market central banks likely to continue diversifying their reserves into gold, contributing significantly to the projected price increase [8][9]. - The structural growth in central bank purchases is largely attributed to the trend of reserve diversification following the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, with expectations that this trend will persist for three years [9][10]. - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, projected to be 100 basis points by mid-2026, are expected to boost Western ETF holdings, contributing positively to gold price increases [8].

OpenAI虽未上市，但这家全球估值最高的初创公司正越来越深刻地影响股市。 上周，OpenAI在ChatGPT中推出"即时购买"功能，令电商公司Shopify和Etsy股价飙升。随后，该公司发布一篇介绍内部新功能的博客，又引发文档软件股新 一轮震荡，Atlassian等原本因担心AI冲击而承压的公司再度下跌。 周一，OpenAI又与AMD签署协议，这项交易有望为AMD带来数百亿美元新营收。受此消息刺激，AMD股价一度暴涨38%，创2016年4月以来最大单日涨幅， 最终周一收涨23.71%，并带动整个芯片行业震荡，英伟达与博通股价双双下跌。 在随后的年度开发者大会上，演讲者仅仅提到其他上市公司，这些公司的股价就飙升。其中，值得关注的涨幅包括：Figma Inc. 上涨 7.4%，HubSpot Inc. 上 涨 2.6%，Salesforce Inc. 上涨 2.3%。在线旅游公司也出现短暂上涨，Expedia Group, Inc. 和 TripAdvisor Inc. 均上涨至少 7%，随后回吐涨幅。就连玩具制 造商美泰公司的股价也上涨了近 6%，但收盘基本持平。 "随着OpenAI不断扩张，市场普遍认为该 ...

Core Viewpoint - AMD and OpenAI have announced a groundbreaking GPU supply agreement worth up to $90 billion, utilizing an unprecedented "equity-for-purchase" model that could redefine financing for AI infrastructure [3][4]. Group 1: Agreement Structure - The agreement involves OpenAI purchasing up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs, with potential sales reaching $90 billion. In exchange, AMD will issue warrants for up to 160 million shares at an exercise price of $0.01 per share [3][4]. - If AMD's stock reaches $600, the value of the 160 million shares could total $96 billion, equivalent to the hardware's value in the agreement [3]. - The structure of the warrants is designed to function like performance-based equity incentives, linking AMD's long-term valuation directly to OpenAI's infrastructure growth [6][9]. Group 2: Strategic Benefits - For AMD, this agreement represents an innovative customer acquisition strategy, converting traditional upfront discounts into equity costs tied to future performance, thus securing a minimum revenue of 1 gigawatt while mitigating dilution risks [9][10]. - OpenAI benefits by ensuring a stable source of non-NVIDIA hardware in a tight supply market and creating a potential self-funding pathway through the appreciation of its AMD shares, which can be used to finance future GPU purchases [11]. Group 3: Industry Implications - This transaction signifies a shift in AI computing power from a mere capital expenditure to a financialized and securitized asset class, showcasing a different ecosystem-building paradigm compared to NVIDIA and Intel [12][14]. - AMD's model does not require partners to co-invest directly but maintains the core of commercial transactions, allowing OpenAI to purchase hardware fully while incentivizing them to expand procurement through equity rewards [15][16]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The agreement faces execution risks, including the lack of transparency regarding key timelines and technical triggers for equity vesting, making it difficult to predict revenue recognition [18]. - The target of 6 gigawatts is a ceiling rather than a firm commitment, with future purchases dependent on OpenAI's business needs and performance [19]. - AMD must maintain a stable supply chain for the delivery of such a large GPU cluster, with potential disruptions in any part of the supply chain posing significant challenges [20].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between AMD and OpenAI marks a significant development in the AI chip market, with AMD set to deploy 6 GW of GPU power to OpenAI, potentially transforming AMD's revenue and market position [2][10]. Group 1: Partnership Details - AMD will provide a total of 6 GW of GPU power to OpenAI, equivalent to Singapore's average electricity demand, with the first 1 GW expected to be deployed in the second half of 2026 [2]. - As part of the agreement, OpenAI has been granted warrants to purchase up to 160 million shares of AMD at a nominal price of $0.01, which could result in OpenAI owning approximately 10% of AMD if fully exercised [5][6]. - The partnership is structured to unlock warrants based on AMD's stock price reaching specific targets, including a milestone linked to a price of $600, significantly higher than AMD's recent closing price of $164.67 [6]. Group 2: Financial Implications - AMD's CFO stated that the agreement is expected to generate hundreds of billions in revenue and enhance the company's earnings per share [3]. - AMD's AI GPU revenue is projected to be $6.55 billion this year, with the collaboration with OpenAI serving as a strong growth catalyst [10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - This partnership positions AMD as a key player in the AI chip market, traditionally dominated by NVIDIA, and validates AMD's next-generation Instinct product roadmap [9]. - OpenAI's collaboration with AMD is a strategic move to diversify its supply chain and reduce reliance on NVIDIA, following a recent $100 billion agreement with NVIDIA for 10 GW of computing infrastructure [10]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The partnership highlights the emergence of an AI "closed-loop economy," where capital, equity, and computing power circulate among a few leading companies, raising concerns about the sustainability of such a concentrated ecosystem [11][12]. - Analysts express concerns that any weakness in this tightly interwoven system could lead to significant pressures on the industry [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of a "devaluation trade" strategy among investors, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and the value of the dollar, leading to record highs in gold and Bitcoin prices [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surpassed $3,900 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, just days after breaking the $3,800 mark [1]. - Bitcoin hit a peak of $125,689 on October 5, exceeding its previous record of $124,514 set on August 14 [4]. - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.1% last Friday, marking a year-to-date decline of approximately 10% [4]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The "devaluation trade" is fueled by long-term factors such as uncertainty regarding long-term inflation, U.S. fiscal policy, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the persistent high deficits of major economies [6][10]. - Analysts suggest that the current government shutdown is a reflection of deeper structural issues within the political system, contributing to the ongoing high federal deficits [10][11]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Analysts are optimistic about the future of gold and Bitcoin, with Citibank's Alex Saunders predicting Bitcoin could reach $181,000 within 12 months, viewing it as "digital gold" [12]. - Fund manager Jeff Muhlenkamp anticipates gold prices will clearly exceed $4,000 by the end of the year, citing significant concerns over the U.S. deficit, which is currently around 6% to 6.5% of GDP [13].

Core Viewpoint - The potential return of "Abenomics" is being priced into the Japanese financial markets following the election of Sanae Takaichi, a protégé of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as the new leader of the ruling party [1][12]. Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4.7%, marking the largest single-day gain in months, while the Topix index rose by 3% [2]. - The Japanese yen weakened significantly against the US dollar by 1.9%, reaching the critical level of 150, and the yen also hit a historical low against the euro [4]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced volatility, with long-term interest rates rising due to concerns over future fiscal expansion, as the yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds surged by 15 basis points to 3.54% [7]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are actively engaging in the "Takaichi trade," anticipating that Takaichi's policies will lead to fiscal expansion and a rightward political shift, which may further weaken the yen and boost the stock market [10]. - Analysts predict that Takaichi's victory could lead to a weaker yen and a steeper yield curve for Japanese government bonds [10]. Economic Policy Outlook - Takaichi's economic policy proposals are heavily influenced by "Abenomics," focusing on large-scale fiscal stimulus and ultra-loose monetary policy [12]. - She has committed to addressing inflation through measures such as increasing subsidies to local governments and potentially lowering consumption tax [12]. - Takaichi advocates for close coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan to achieve demand-driven economic growth [13]. Market Expectations - The market is preparing for potential fiscal expansion, with Takaichi's election seen as a surprise for investors who expected a more fiscally conservative candidate [15]. - A strategist from VanEck Australia noted that this could be a positive surprise for the stock market [16]. - However, there are concerns that increased fiscal spending may lead to a higher debt burden and potential bond market sell-offs if not managed with appropriate safeguards [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is adjusting its messaging strategy in response to weak employment data and ongoing inflation pressures, with advisors suggesting a focus on a more optimistic future outlook, specifically indicating improvements starting in 2026 [1][2][6]. Group 1: Economic Messaging Strategy - Trump's advisors are portraying a positive economic outlook despite current instability, asserting that economic indicators will show improvement by the end of 2025 [1][6]. - The administration's messaging has shifted from focusing on immediate economic performance to emphasizing future potential, with Trump stating that the "big year" for economic growth will be in 2026 rather than 2025 [1][2]. - The White House is focusing on supply-side reforms and significant manufacturing investments to revitalize the U.S. industrial sector [7]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Data - The administration is facing political and economic pressures, with recent employment data showing only 22,000 new jobs added in August [4][8]. - Public perception of Trump's economic leadership has declined, with only 37% of adults approving of his handling of the economy, while 62% disapprove [10]. - Surveys indicate that a significant portion of voters believe Trump's policies have worsened the economy since he took office, with 45% stating the economy has deteriorated [11]. Group 3: Policy Challenges and Economic Outlook - Independent economists warn that some of Trump's policies, particularly regarding immigration and tariffs, may hinder short-term growth and increase costs [14]. - Many economists anticipate improvements in the economy next year as tariff uncertainties diminish and the Federal Reserve potentially lowers interest rates [15]. - There are concerns that ignoring comprehensive economic indicators in policy-making could lead to significant government errors [17].

Core Viewpoint - Axiom Math, an AI startup founded by a Gen Z entrepreneur, Carina Hong, has successfully completed its first funding round of $64 million, achieving a post-money valuation of $300 million. The company aims to create a self-improving superintelligent reasoning system that can solve complex mathematical problems and generate detailed reasoning steps for verification [2][6][9]. Company Overview - Axiom Math is positioned as an AI company focused on developing a model that can solve complex mathematical problems by converting mathematical content from textbooks and journals into programmatic knowledge [6][7]. - The company’s vision includes expanding its research applications to areas such as financial modeling, chip architecture, and quantitative trading [7]. Founder's Background - Carina Hong, the founder, is a 24-year-old prodigy with a remarkable academic background, including studies at MIT, Oxford, and currently pursuing a PhD at Stanford. She has received numerous accolades in mathematics and has a strong focus on solving difficult technical problems [12][13][14]. Team Composition - Axiom's core team consists of 10 full-time employees, including several AI experts from Meta, such as Shubho Sengupta, who has a history of leading significant AI projects [9][11]. Market Context - The emergence of Axiom Math reflects a broader trend of Gen Z entrepreneurs entering the AI space, with several other startups founded by young innovators also gaining traction and securing significant funding [15][16][17]. - The current wave of AI startups is characterized by young founders who are unencumbered by traditional constraints, allowing for innovative approaches to new technologies [17].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is facing additional strain due to an unprecedented government shutdown, which may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts amid data interruptions [1][7] - The Trump administration is utilizing the government shutdown crisis to advance a second round of large-scale federal employee layoffs, with expectations of a reduction of hundreds of thousands of federal employees by the end of the year [1][4] - Approximately 154,000 federal employees have accepted the Deferred Resignation Plan, with about 100,000 already removed from the government payroll [3][4] Group 2 - The government has implemented hiring freezes, forced layoffs, and voluntary departure programs, contributing to the overall reduction in federal employment [4][5] - The current government shutdown is expected to temporarily lay off around 750,000 employees, with the White House threatening permanent cuts related to the shutdown [6] - The lack of key economic data due to the shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy-making, as they are unable to assess labor market and price dynamics effectively [7][8] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that even with inflation rates above target, the Federal Reserve may prioritize cushioning the labor market from further shocks [9]