华尔街见闻

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红色警报!高盛带头不玩了,巨头们集体转向,欧洲笑了
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-06 09:43
赤字以及债市担忧情绪蔓延下,高盛客户已 开始减少美国资产超配 ,加速美元风险对冲。 (图片由豆包AI生成 提示词警报灯亮起) 当华尔街最具影响力的投行开始踩刹车时,市场该紧张了。 面对难以预测的关税政策风暴与飙升的赤字隐忧,华尔街金融巨头高盛正罕见地选择"龟缩"—— 削减风险敞口,囤积现金,力求自保。 实际上,不是只是高盛,包括加拿大魁北克储蓄投资集团、橡树资本等在内的多家大型机构已开始 减少对美投资,转向欧洲等更具稳定性的市场。 启动"风控机制",高盛不玩了 高盛总裁兼首席运营官John Waldron作为高盛的二号人物,被广泛视为下任CEO的有力竞争者。 Waldron在周四发布的播客中透露,自特朗普4月2日宣布对贸易伙伴全面加征关税以来, 该行已"适度调整了我们的风险头寸" 。 Waldron表示:只要有机会,我们就会降低风险,尽量让业务开展、资金投放等方面更贴近熟悉、稳定的基础领域。 他表示,这种风险偏好的降低将主要体现在资本市场业务和为客户提供交易便利的过程中。他解释道,高盛将"更加珍惜流动性, 保留更多缓冲资金 ",并采取更 为平衡的策略,而非过度激进。 他预期将出现 "慢胀" 局面——1%至1. ...
今日非农夜:新增就业若跌破十万,美股牛市危了?
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-06 09:43
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical for Wall Street, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and potential implications for market sentiment and economic outlook [1][2][4]. Employment Data Expectations - The consensus for the May non-farm payroll report anticipates an increase of 126,000 jobs, a decrease from April's 177,000, and below the three-month average of 155,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [2][6]. - Wage growth is projected to slightly decline year-over-year, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, compared to 0.2% in April, and a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, down from 3.8% [3]. Job Market Indicators - Various leading indicators suggest a trend of slowing employment growth, including a disappointing ADP employment report showing only 37,000 new jobs in May, significantly below the expected 110,000 [7]. - Initial jobless claims rose from 216,000 to 226,000, and continuing claims increased from 1.833 million to 1.919 million, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [7]. Sector-Specific Insights - The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to be a significant drag on overall job growth, with projections of a loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in this area [8]. - Weather conditions in May, particularly higher-than-average rainfall in the East Coast and Southern regions, may have also suppressed hiring in leisure and construction sectors [8]. Impact of Tariffs and Policies - Analysts warn that tariffs may shift from a "tailwind" to a "headwind" for job growth, with affected industries likely to experience some weakness. In the six months leading up to April, these industries added nearly 200,000 jobs, but this trend may have peaked [11]. - The impact of immigration restrictions is expected to manifest in the coming months, potentially leading to a decrease in job growth, although the immediate effects in May are anticipated to be limited [13]. Market Reactions to Employment Data - The market is closely monitoring the non-farm payroll data, with a threshold of 100,000 jobs being a critical psychological level. A figure below this could trigger recession fears and end the current bull market [5][14]. - Goldman Sachs outlines a reaction matrix for the S&P 500 based on job growth figures, indicating that a number below 100,000 could lead to a decline of 2% to 3% in the index [14][18].
白银要逆袭?日内暴涨创12年新高,抢夺黄金光环
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-06 09:43
Core Viewpoint - Silver is gaining attention and momentum, potentially overshadowing gold as a preferred investment asset due to its dual role as both a financial asset and an industrial raw material [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Thursday, spot silver surged by 4.5%, reaching above $36 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [2]. - Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42% due to the U.S.-led tariff wars and central banks' significant gold purchases, while silver has only risen by approximately 15%, indicating a lag [7]. - The recent spike in silver prices is narrowing this gap, with significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), increasing holdings by 2.2 million ounces in a single day [8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Alexander Zumpfe from Heraeus Group noted that the current rally in silver is driven by technical momentum, improved fundamentals, and broader investor interest [4]. - Trend investors are reigniting their interest in silver, indicating a rotation from gold to silver [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver is experiencing a structural supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [9]. - Unlike gold, which relies solely on safe-haven demand, silver's structural shortage provides a solid foundation for price increases [10]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic changes, including a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, have led to a decline in bond yields, prompting traders to bet on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December [12]. - Lower interest rate environments typically benefit non-yielding precious metals, with silver often outperforming due to its higher price elasticity [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may just be the beginning, as the combination of safe-haven demand, industrial shortages, and expectations of monetary easing historically leads to significant price impacts [14].
一文读懂“特马大战”,时间线全记录
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-06 03:58
特朗普和马斯克上周刚刚在椭圆形办公室站在一起,宣告他们持久的友谊,周四晚上却实时地互相讽刺 和辱骂,甚至演变成了互相威胁。 从2024年7月马斯克公开支持特朗普到关系破裂,不到一年的时间,两人就因为一项被大漂亮法案,走 向彻底反目。 据央视报道,北京时间6月5日,美国总统特朗普与"政府效率部"前负责人马斯克开始公开骂战。随着争 吵持续周四整个美盘时段,特斯拉股价暴跌,投资者陷入恐慌。截至收盘,特斯拉股价已下跌14%,创 下3月份以来的最大跌幅,市值蒸发超过1500亿美元。 以下均为北京时间: 6月5日 22:37 马斯克转发了一篇关于特朗普关税法案的"报道"。标题是: 国会警告,未能通过支出法案可能会延缓国家毁灭。 6月5日 23:20 说得真有道理。 6月5日 23:46 马斯克转发了特朗普2012年的一条推文,推文内容: 我非常赞同,'如果美国预算不平衡,任何国会议员都不应连任。' 6月6日 零点时分 正在美国白宫会见德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨的特朗普开始回应马斯克的批评。特朗普表示: 马斯克很生气,因为我们撤销电动汽车强制令,你知道,这对电动汽车来说可是一笔巨款。他们 (特斯拉)在电动汽车领域遇到了困难 ...
骂战降温,马斯克主动和解?
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-06 03:20
觉得好看,请点"在看" 马斯克回应: 你说的没错。 还有网友劝两位都冷静下来,各退一步。马斯克回应说:好建议, 我不会让龙飞船退役。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻,好内容不错过 ⭐ 美东时间6月5日周四,特斯拉CEO马斯克和美国总统特朗公开激烈对撕。 这场"口水战"把特斯拉也拉下了水,特斯拉股价暴跌14%,市值蒸发1530亿美元。 华尔街看呆,"不能理解、蠢透了、灾难"…… 潘兴广场创始人、对冲基金大佬Bill Ackman 发推文 劝和"特马" :"他们应该为了我们伟大国家的 利益而和平相处。" 本文不构成个人投资建议,不代表 平台 观点,市场有风险,投资需谨慎,请独立判断和决策。 ...
“特马”激烈对骂,特斯拉暴跌14%!特朗普:马斯克疯了 马斯克:特朗普应被弹劾,还涉嫌爱泼斯坦案
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-05 23:42
美东时间6月5日周四,特斯拉CEO马斯克和美国总统特朗公开撕破脸,两人的"兄弟情"看来连表面上做样子都做不到了。 两人激烈对撕, 特斯拉股价盘中大跌近18%, 最终收跌约14.3% ,创将近三个月来最大日跌幅,收创5月7日以来低位, 市值一日蒸发超1500亿美元 。 先是特朗普在白宫对记者们表示,他 对马斯克"很失望" ,因为马斯克比其他人都了解法案的内容是怎么回事,却"突然之间"掉过头来反对法案。 接着马斯克迅速发帖"反击",称特朗普说谎、他之前 根本没看过法案 ,只有削减支出一条路可走。 据央视新闻,特朗普表示,他宁愿马斯克批评他,而不是批评他的税改法案。 马斯克对特朗普政府撤销电动汽车"强制令"感到很不高兴。 他了解法案的内部 运作,且对此毫无异议,直到发现要撤销电动汽车"强制令"才意识到问题。 特朗普说: "我对埃隆(·马斯克)很失望。我帮了他很多。他比在座的任何人都更了解这项法案的内部运作。他对此毫无异议。突然之间,他就有意见了,而且是当他发 现我们要削减电动汽车强制令时,才开始产生这种想法。" 之后,特朗普又在社交媒体发帖称,是他提出让马斯克离开"政府效率部"(DOGE)的,就因为撤销了购买电动车 ...
特朗普拟推“旅游签证加急” 服务,1000美元即可插队
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-05 08:37
1000美金可以买来"美国速度"? 5日,根据媒体获得的美国国务院内部备忘录, 特朗普政府正考虑对旅游签证申请者收取1000美元 的"加急面试费用",将允许部分申请者在签证面试中"插队"。 目前,入境美国的游客和其他非移民签证申请者已需支付185美元的处理费,新的千元选项将作为高端 服务推出。备忘录显示,该项目最早可能在12月以试点形式启动。 显然,特朗普并不满足于今年2月提出的500万美元"金卡"公民身份计划。据央视新闻此前报道称, 特朗 普认为联邦政府可以出售1000万张"金卡"来减少赤字。 世界旅游业理事会5月份的报告显示,由于对特朗普政策的反对情绪和美元走强促使外国游客选择其他 目的地, 预计2025年美国国际旅游支出将下降约7%。而新增的千元加急费可能进一步抑制赴美旅游需 求。 特朗普酝酿千元签证加急费,但法律风险重重 值得注意的是, 这一提案,与特朗普今年2月提出的500万美元" 金卡 "公民身份计划如出一辙。 据新华社报道,美国总统特朗普2月25日在白宫椭圆形办公室表示,他将面向对该国项目至少投资500 万美元(约合3600万人民币)的外国人开辟获得居住权并最终入籍的新路径。 华尔街见闻此前提及 ...
端午制曲,感受中国郎的温度
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-05 08:11
Core Viewpoint - The annual Duanwu Festival ceremony at Langjiu marks the beginning of the summer harvest and emphasizes the company's commitment to traditional craftsmanship and quality in the production of sauce-flavored liquor [1][5][13]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The 2025 version of Langjiu and the Huaxia Hundred Surnames series were officially launched, enhancing the competitiveness of Langjiu's product matrix [1][16]. - Over 380 special guests, including outstanding employees and their families, were invited to the ceremony, showcasing Langjiu's appreciation for its workforce [2][11]. - The event aimed to strengthen emotional connections between the brand and consumers, emphasizing the importance of human relationships in the liquor industry [3][12]. Group 2: Craftsmanship and Quality - Langjiu adheres to the traditional "12987" craftsmanship process, which includes multiple steps such as grain selection, fermentation, and distillation, reflecting a deep respect for time and tradition [5][8]. - The company focuses on the entire value chain from grain to brewing, ensuring high-quality raw materials and precise control over the fermentation process [8][10]. - Langjiu's production capacity has reached 72,000 tons annually, with a storage capacity of 265,000 tons, adhering to the principle of "storing ten and selling one" to ensure product quality [15]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The upgrade of the Langjiu brand is part of a broader strategy to penetrate the mass market, targeting a price range of 200-300 yuan, which positions it as a high-cost performance product [18][19]. - The launch of the Huaxia Hundred Surnames series aims to simplify the custom liquor market and extend its reach to end consumers, reflecting a trend towards personalized consumer experiences [21][22]. - Langjiu has established a comprehensive product matrix that covers various market segments, from mass market to ultra-high-end products, responding to the evolving consumer demands for diversity and personalization [20].
关键时刻,马斯克不停炮轰,特朗普罕见“没对喷”,大漂亮法案再添变数
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-05 03:09
Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has publicly criticized Trump's tax reform bill, which is seen as a key achievement of Trump's second term, highlighting a significant shift in his stance towards the administration [1][4][10]. Group 1: Musk's Opposition to the Tax Reform - Musk's criticism intensified as he called on the American public to contact legislators to "veto" the tax reform bill, warning against the potential for U.S. bankruptcy [6][10]. - He labeled the tax reform as "disgusting" and threatened to unseat Republican lawmakers who support it [9][10]. - The tax reform bill includes cuts to electric vehicle tax credits, which directly impacts Tesla, contributing to Musk's opposition [10]. Group 2: Political Implications - Musk's opposition could delay the passage of the tax reform and increase the risk of a debt ceiling crisis, as the U.S. debt is projected to rise significantly in a short period [5][9][29]. - Trump's response to Musk's criticism has been notably restrained, despite his frustration, indicating a complex political dynamic [13][27]. - The Republican Party's ability to maintain a majority in the 2026 midterm elections could be jeopardized if Musk withdraws his financial support [18]. Group 3: Legislative Context - The tax reform bill is facing critical votes in the Senate, where Republicans can afford to lose only three votes to pass it [4][25]. - The House has already passed the bill, but the Senate's support is uncertain, especially among budget hardliners who demand significant spending cuts [20][25]. - The urgency of the situation is underscored by warnings from Treasury officials about the potential for unprecedented default if the debt ceiling is not raised by August [28].
百年人寿百亿输血万达系手法还原
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-05 03:09
信风TradeWind . 关注资本市场的趋势与发展 作者郑嘉意 编辑松壑 一些地产资本入局金融行业后的后遗症,逐渐浮出水面。 大连国资入主半年后,百年人寿公开了一份长达29页的旧账,在官网与保险行业协会同步披露2015-2020年间的27笔重大关联交易。 信风统计发现,上述交易涉及金额超250亿元,至今84亿元以上的风险敞口未能结清。 不久之后,上述文件已从百年人寿官网撤下。 以下文章来源于信风TradeWind ,作者郑嘉意 时间线上,27笔交易主要集中在2015-2020年间,涉及2014年前后加入的万达、科瑞、恒茂地产等一众"地产系"股东。 依照彼时规则,重大关联交易须经董事会批准、独立董事一致同意;后续要在10个工作日内公开披露交易架构等穿透信息。 但百年人寿不仅未及时公示,甚至在2025年2月才将这27笔交易提请董事会审议。 过去5年里,百年人寿历多轮人事洗牌,董事长、总裁之位都曾长期空悬,如今的董事会成员与2020年间更是无一人重合; 这意味着上述交易,对于如今的管理层也可能是一笔新算的旧账。 隐蔽的路径 迟到的信披,显示出关联交易资金暗道的隐蔽。 信风注意到,百年人寿上述交易的对手均非股东或直 ...