Core Viewpoint - The medical beauty business is increasingly attracting interest from major internet companies, with JD Health opening its first offline medical beauty clinic in Beijing, marking a significant move into this competitive sector [1][4][14]. Group 1: JD Health's Medical Beauty Strategy - JD Health has established a subsidiary for medical beauty and opened its first self-operated clinic, "JD Medical Beauty (Yizhuang Store)," which is integrated into the JD APP [1][2][4]. - The second clinic, "JD Medical Beauty (Guomao Store)," is set to open on September 30, indicating a rapid expansion plan [1][15]. - The clinic currently offers limited services, focusing on light medical beauty treatments, with plans to introduce more popular products like "童颜针" in the future [15][18]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition between JD and Meituan in the medical beauty sector mirrors their rivalry in the food delivery market, with both companies vying for market share [23][24]. - Meituan has positioned itself as a platform for offline medical beauty institutions, while JD Health adopts a dual approach of self-operated clinics and third-party partnerships [26][27]. - The entry of major internet companies like JD and Xinyang into the medical beauty market is intensifying competition, particularly for smaller clinics lacking traffic sources [35][36]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Dynamics - JD Medical Beauty's pricing strategy shows that while it offers a range of services, its prices are not significantly lower than competitors, which may affect its market positioning [21][22]. - The aggressive pricing strategies employed by platforms like Meituan have led to significant price reductions in the market, creating challenges for traditional medical beauty institutions [29][30]. - The operational model of medical beauty clinics differs from traditional e-commerce, emphasizing the importance of medical professionals' skills and service quality [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - Global fund managers are entering risk assets at a record pace, pushing market sentiment to multi-month highs, but Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett warns that this could trigger a clear sell signal, as the survey is known as a "famous contrarian indicator" [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Sentiment - The latest survey indicates that investor risk appetite has increased at the fastest rate since 2001 over the past three months [1]. - In July, the allocation to U.S. stocks saw the largest increase since December, while the allocation to tech stocks recorded the largest three-month increase since 2009 [7]. - The average cash level held by fund managers dropped to 3.9% in July from 4.2% in June, triggering a "sell" signal [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Optimism is driven by the S&P 500 index reaching new historical highs and increased confidence in corporate earnings and the U.S. handling of trade disputes [2]. - The proportion of respondents believing that the economy will not enter a recession in the next year has completely reversed, with net 59% of respondents expressing this view [9][11]. - Concerns about recession have decreased for the third consecutive month, marking the lowest level since February 25 [10]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Despite the positive sentiment, investors still view trade conflicts as the largest tail risk, with 38% of investors identifying it as such [12][13]. - The expected final tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on trade partners has risen to 14%, up from 13% in June, indicating ongoing market attention to trade policy [15]. - The second-largest risk identified is inflation hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, followed by a significant decline in the dollar [12]. Group 4: Market Strategies - The most crowded trading strategies currently include shorting the dollar (34%), going long on the "seven giants" tech stocks (26%), and going long on gold (25%) [14]. - The survey indicates that the current market conditions are approaching "overheated" levels, with several indicators aligning with this assessment [19].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has issued a strong half-year earnings warning, with revenue growth exceeding 200% and net profit growth exceeding 350%, but major Wall Street firms believe the performance "only roughly meets high expectations from buyers" [1][4][10] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by no less than 200%, indicating revenue of at least 13.7 billion RMB, surpassing Goldman Sachs' expectation of 187% year-on-year growth [3][10] - The net profit, excluding changes in the fair value of financial instruments, is expected to grow by no less than 350%, meaning a net profit of 4.5 billion RMB, exceeding Goldman Sachs' forecast of 3.8 billion RMB [3][10] - The net profit margin has significantly improved to approximately 30%, compared to 20% in the first half of 2024 and 26% in the second half of 2024 [3][12] Group 2: Analyst Predictions and Revisions - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart for 2025-2027, with the target price increased from 227 HKD to 260 HKD, maintaining a neutral rating [2][11] - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its earnings predictions, increasing the 2025 revenue forecast from 280.11 billion RMB to 303.85 billion RMB and the adjusted EPS from 6.10 RMB to 7.15 RMB [13] - Both firms expect significant growth in revenue and net profit, with compound annual growth rates of 23% and 25% for 2025-2027, respectively [13] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - After a 60% increase in stock price over the past three months and a staggering 588% rise over the past year, Morgan Stanley warns of potential profit-taking pressure in the short term [5][8] - Despite the strong performance, Morgan Stanley remains cautious about short-term stock price movements, suggesting investors buy on dips [8] Group 4: Catalysts for Future Growth - Morgan Stanley has identified five key catalysts to watch: the opening of two new "POPOP" jewelry stores, the premiere of the "Labubu & Friends" animation series, the launch of Labubu x Uniqlo T-shirts, the anticipated release of Labubu 4.0, and the potential introduction of interactive/AI toys [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Huang Renxun at the Chain Expo emphasizes the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) across various industries, highlighting the significant role of Chinese companies in the AI sector [1][7]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Role in AI Development - NVIDIA began as a small startup and has evolved to become a leader in AI computing, with its GPU technology laying the foundation for the AI era [6]. - The company has made significant advancements from the Kepler architecture to the latest Blackwell architecture, establishing itself as a driving force in the global AI ecosystem [6]. - Huang Renxun highlighted the delivery of the world's first AI supercomputer, DGX-1, to OpenAI in 2016, showcasing NVIDIA's early commitment to AI [6]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Industries - AI is fundamentally changing every industry, including scientific research and various platforms in China such as WeChat and Alipay, as well as advancements in autonomous driving and mobile technology [7]. - The current landscape features around 1 million developers in China engaged in AI innovation, with companies like DeepSeek, Alibaba, MiniMax, and Baidu contributing to global AI development [7]. - Open-source AI is seen as a catalyst for global progress, enabling various industries to participate in the AI revolution [7]. Group 3: Future of AI and Supply Chain - AI is now considered a critical infrastructure, akin to the importance of electricity and the internet before the AI revolution [8]. - In China, numerous digital twin research projects are underway to optimize factory design and operations, with many robots trained using NVIDIA's Omniverse [8]. - The next wave of AI capable of understanding the physical world and executing tasks is expected to emerge within the next decade, fundamentally altering factory operations and collaboration with humans [8].

第三届中国国际供应链促进博览会16日在北京举行。据中国新闻网， 英伟达CEO黄仁勋穿唐装亮相，引发广泛关 注。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 此前，他在北京35℃高温下仍穿皮衣与雷军合影，曾称因"唯一西装未干洗"而选择皮衣。 链博会开幕式日程显示，黄仁勋将在第三届链博会开幕式上致辞，并计划发表首次公开中文演讲。 他昨天还坦 言"很期待"、"好紧张"，要回酒店好好练习中文。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing competition among major food delivery platforms, highlighting record-breaking order volumes and aggressive subsidy strategies to capture market share in the instant retail sector. Group 1: Record Performance - Meituan reported a record high of 150 million orders on July 12, with over 50 million for "Shenqiangshou" and over 35 million for "Pinghaofan" [1] - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced a daily order volume exceeding 80 million, with a 15% increase in daily active users, reaching over 200 million [1][12] - The overall market capacity has expanded due to increased consumer willingness and participation, driven by substantial investments from the platforms [12] Group 2: Subsidy Strategies - Meituan and Taobao Flash Sale continued their weekend subsidy campaigns, with Meituan offering various discount vouchers and Taobao providing a 188 yuan coupon package [3][5] - The competition has led to a significant increase in order volumes, with Taobao Flash Sale capturing 60% of the incremental market share [21] - JD.com has shifted to a more refined subsidy strategy, launching a "Double Hundred Plan" to support quality dining merchants, with over 200 brands achieving over 1 million orders [13][14] Group 3: Financial Implications - Despite impressive order growth, the intense subsidy competition is straining the platforms financially, with projected losses of 410 billion yuan for Alibaba and 260 billion yuan for JD.com in the upcoming year [15][18] - The total annual investment in this competition is expected to reach around 100 billion yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of such aggressive spending [18][20] - The stock prices of Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com have all seen declines of over 3% since July [19] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The subsidy war is expected to continue, with platforms signaling their commitment to maintaining high levels of investment to deter new entrants [20][16] - The competition has evolved into a weekly and potentially monthly occurrence, with platforms aiming to create a new promotional holiday [11][16] - The rapid growth in order volumes raises questions about the long-term viability of such strategies, as the sustainability of consumer demand remains uncertain [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant turmoil due to political uncertainty and fiscal concerns, with the 10-year bond yield surpassing critical levels, indicating heightened market anxiety [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On July 15, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.595%, the highest level since 2008. The 20-year yield increased by 3.5 basis points to 2.64%, and the 30-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.195%, both reaching levels not seen since 1999. Bonds with maturities of 20 years or more have seen yields rise by at least 20 basis points this month [1][3]. - The rise in the 10-year yield is particularly concerning as it directly impacts the economy, being a benchmark for fixed mortgage rates, which will increase financing costs for businesses and households [3][5]. Group 2: Political Context and Market Reactions - The upcoming July 20 Senate elections are a key factor driving the rise in bond yields, with concerns that the ruling coalition may lose, leading to a significant shift in fiscal policy and increased selling pressure in the bond market [5][6]. - Polls indicate a declining trend in expected seats for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, raising fears of a potential shift to more populist policies that could exacerbate fiscal deficits and undermine investor confidence in bonds [5][7]. - Analysts warn that if the ruling coalition loses, it could trigger a sell-off of long-term bonds by foreign investors, particularly due to fears of potential consumption tax cuts [5][7]. Group 3: Global Context - The rise in Japanese bond yields is part of a broader global trend, with long-term government bond yields falling worldwide as investors express concerns over government spending exceeding sustainable levels [7][8]. - The Bank of Japan's governor has indicated that while the impact of long-term yields on the economy is limited compared to short-term debt, the situation will be closely monitored [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and profitability of Pop Mart, driven by the popularity of Labubu, with a 180% increase in stock price this year and a projected cash flow return on investment (CFROI) of 24% in 2024, potentially exceeding 40% in 2025/2026. However, market pricing suggests a cautious outlook, expecting CFROI to decline to 32% by 2029, indicating skepticism about the company's ability to sustain high growth and profit margins [1][5][10]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart's profitability is exceptional compared to global toy and character brand companies, with a 2024 CFROI of 24% driven by doubled sales and recovering EBITDA margins. The company's profit margin reached 42%, significantly higher than the industry median of approximately 20% [2][4]. - The asset turnover ratio has improved to the industry average due to accelerated sales growth over the past two years [2]. Market Expectations - Despite strong financial forecasts, the market's implied expectations are conservative, predicting a decline in CFROI to 32% by 2029 [5][6]. - There is a notable discrepancy between analysts' optimistic forecasts and the cautious market pricing, suggesting a lack of confidence in Pop Mart's ability to maintain high profitability levels over the long term [8]. Valuation Analysis and Scenarios - The UBS HOLT model outlines three potential scenarios for Pop Mart: - **Market Implied Scenario**: Current pricing reflects a slight sales growth slowdown to 24% and a return of EBITDA margins to a five-year median of 35%, still outperforming industry averages of 6% sales growth and 20% profit margins [9]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: If Pop Mart maintains recent growth levels of 28% and profit margins of 40%, the stock could see a potential increase of approximately 43% [9]. - **Pessimistic Scenario**: If the popularity of the company's IP declines, leading to a sales growth slowdown to 20% and profit margins dropping to around 25%, the stock could face a decline of about 42% [9]. Strategic Positioning - Pop Mart is at a critical juncture, with impressive financial data and growth momentum. The key for investors lies in assessing whether the company's strong IP creation and brand appeal can endure through market cycles and establish itself as a globally successful consumer brand [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be released in the second half of 2026, with a starting price of $1,800 [1] Group 1: Product and Cost Insights - Apple will use Samsung Display's (SDC) wrinkle-free display design for the foldable iPhone, rather than its own solution, to ensure mass production by 2026 [1][4] - The bill of materials (BOM) for the iPhone Fold is estimated at $759, which is 4% lower than the Samsung Z Fold SE, with pricing likely between $1,800 and $2,000 due to Apple's cost control capabilities [2] - Initial production is expected to be limited to 10-15 million units, reflecting the technical complexity and high price point of foldable devices [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The adoption of SDC's wrinkle-free design will reshape the entire supply chain [4] - Fine M-Tec, as SDC's metal plate supplier, is projected to start shipping display metal plates in Q1 2026 at a unit price of $30-35, with an expected shipment volume of 13-15 million units, capturing over 80% of the supply share [5] - Samsung Display is anticipated to be the main supplier of 7-inch foldable OLED panels, with an annual capacity of 15 million units, while LG Display may serve as an alternative supplier [5] - Apple may utilize titanium for the outer shell and liquid metal for the hinge, benefiting suppliers like Lens Technology, Amphenol, and Foxconn [5] Group 3: Market Response - Investor expectations for the foldable iPhone have positively impacted market sentiment, with Fine M-Tec's stock surging by 29.97% to 9,280 KRW on the KOSDAQ market [6] - Merrill Lynch analyst Yang Seung-Soo has given Fine M-Tec a "buy" rating with a target price of 8,200 KRW, noting that only two companies possess the required technical capabilities in the metal plate sector [7] - The launch of the foldable iPhone is expected to have a positive ripple effect on the entire supply chain, including companies like Amphenol, Hirose, TDK, Xinxing Electronics, and Samsung SDI, which are currently trading below historical average valuations [8] Group 4: Market Trends - The global foldable smartphone market is currently showing signs of fatigue, with growth slowing and a projected decline in 2025 due to high prices and concerns over durability and usability [9] - Samsung maintains a leading position in this segment with the most comprehensive foldable product line, while brands like OPPO, OnePlus, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Vivo are introducing unique foldable designs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the importance of urban development in China, highlighting the need for a modernized urban framework that prioritizes innovation, livability, sustainability, resilience, and smart governance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements for Urban Work - The conference outlined that urban work should be guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics, focusing on high-quality urban development and adapting to the changing urbanization phase from rapid growth to stable development [2][3]. Key Tasks for Urban Development 1. **Optimizing Modern Urban Systems** - Focus on enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities, promoting urban clusters and coordinated development between large, medium, and small cities [3]. 2. **Building Innovative Cities** - Foster an innovative ecosystem and enhance urban dynamism through reform and high-quality urban renewal [4]. 3. **Creating Livable Cities** - Integrate planning for population, industry, and transportation, and improve public services while ensuring basic living standards [4]. 4. **Developing Green and Low-Carbon Cities** - Strengthen ecological governance and implement effective measures for air quality, water source protection, and pollution reduction [4]. 5. **Establishing Resilient Cities** - Enhance infrastructure safety, upgrade old pipelines, and improve disaster prevention and public safety measures [4]. 6. **Promoting Civilized Cities** - Protect historical and cultural heritage while enhancing the cultural soft power of cities [4]. 7. **Implementing Smart City Initiatives** - Innovate urban governance methods and improve responsiveness to citizens' needs through effective communication channels [5]. Leadership and Implementation - The conference stressed the necessity of strong party leadership in urban work, advocating for improved governance structures, policy coordination, and a focus on practical results to combat formalism and bureaucratism [5][6].