Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of stagflation due to tariffs and the divided market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of financial market conditions in the Fed's decision-making process in 2025 [3][51]. Group 1: Overseas Major Assets & Events - The overseas asset performance showed divergence, with a significant rebound in oil prices. WTI crude oil increased by 4.7% to $61.0 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 3.1% to $3,326.3 per ounce [4][26][29]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.5%, with mixed performances across developed market indices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.37% [4][13]. - The U.S. and the UK reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. maintaining a 10% tariff on UK imports while reducing tariffs on UK automobiles for the first 100,000 units [4][33]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The May FOMC meeting highlighted a "wait-and-see" approach, acknowledging the uncertainty in economic prospects and the rising risks of higher unemployment and inflation. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at [4.25%-4.50%] [39][41]. - Fed officials expressed that the current economic conditions do not necessitate immediate adjustments to interest rates, emphasizing the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy [41][39]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3 were reported at 228,000, lower than the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a robust labor market [45]. - Germany's industrial production in March increased by 3% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 1%, driven by strong performances in pharmaceuticals and motor vehicles [43][44].

Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs on PPI is significant, while improved consumer demand provides substantial support for core CPI [4][5][47] - International oil prices have declined, and weak demand for steel and coal has led to a drop in commodity prices, negatively affecting PPI [4][10] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for certain goods, leading to a slight increase in core CPI despite the overall decline [5][48] Inflation Data Summary - On May 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released April inflation data: CPI year-on-year at -0.1%, previous value -0.1%, expected -0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -2.7%, previous value -2.5%, expected -2.8% [3][46] - April PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, slightly better than market expectations [10][30] PPI Analysis - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices, which have led to a decrease in domestic oil prices, negatively impacting sectors like oil extraction and processing [4][10] - The real estate sector's downturn and seasonal factors have contributed to reduced demand for steel and coal, further dragging down PPI [4][10] - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries, exacerbated by increased tariffs, has also constrained PPI recovery [13][47] CPI Analysis - Core CPI showed a limited decline, primarily due to the "old-for-new" policy, which has stimulated demand and led to price increases in certain consumer goods [5][48] - Food CPI improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -0.2%, driven by seasonal supply constraints and reduced imports [20][34] - Gold price increases have supported other goods and services prices, contributing positively to overall CPI [22][48] Service Sector Insights - The core service CPI increased by 0.44% month-on-month, slightly better than seasonal trends, driven by a rebound in travel demand [6][25][49] - Significant price increases were observed in travel-related services, such as airfare and vehicle rentals, reflecting improved consumer activity [25][49] Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs on PPI is expected to be greater than on CPI, with potential downward pressure on both indices in the second quarter [7][27] - However, policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand may provide support for inflation recovery [7][27]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 2 7 - 5 . 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第29期 《聚焦"政治局会议"》 《美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四》 4、"洞见"系列会议第59期 《美国经济：滞涨困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五》 深度专题 热 点 思 考 1 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 热点思考 2025.4.28 1 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 深度专题 2025.5.7 4月中央政治局会议提出"设立服务消费与养老再贷款"，促消费工具箱再"上新"。提振消费的"关键"何在，后续 还有哪些期待？ 1、 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 2、 热点思考 | 美国经济：滞胀困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五 3、 3分钟看清五一全球要闻 1、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article is the analysis of the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) monetary policy execution report for Q1 2025, emphasizing the need for flexible policy implementation in response to external economic pressures and the importance of maintaining economic stability and growth [3][10][11]. Economic Situation Analysis - The report highlights increasing external shocks affecting China's economy, with concerns over insufficient global economic growth, rising trade protectionism, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [4][11]. - The PBOC acknowledges the positive performance of the economy in Q1 2025 but stresses the need to solidify the foundation for continued recovery [4][31]. - The report indicates that while there are challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and various risk factors, the long-term positive trend of the economy remains unchanged [4][31]. Policy Framework - The PBOC's policy stance is characterized by a flexible approach to the implementation of monetary policy, focusing on dynamic responses to economic data [5][32]. - The report emphasizes the relationship between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, suggesting a reduction in banks' funding costs [5][32]. - The PBOC plans to utilize a combination of monetary policy tools, including reserve requirements and open market operations, to ensure ample liquidity in the financial system [6][33]. Key Topics - The evolution of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) over the past decade is discussed, noting its transition from a liquidity support tool to a primary monetary policy instrument [7][13]. - A comparative analysis of government debt among China, the US, and Japan reveals that China's government debt is supported by substantial assets, with a net asset ratio of approximately 91% of GDP as of 2022, contrasting with the net liability ratios of 119% for both the US and Japan [8][22][34]. - The report addresses the supply-demand dynamics in the real economy, indicating a shift in price control strategies from managing high prices to managing low prices, reflecting a focus on high-quality development [8][23][34].

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强 等 申万宏源宏观 . 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 文 | 赵伟、屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强 事件： 5月9日，海关公布4月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比8.1%、预期0.6%、前值12.4%；进口 （美元计价）同比-0.2%、预期-6.9%、前值-4.3%。 核心观点：领先指标显示，5月"抢出口"或将继续。 4月出口同比回落主因春节错位扰动消退，春节调整后同比明显回升。 4月出口同比（美元计价）较3月 回落4.3pct至8.1%，更多受春节错位扰动消退的影响。经测算，春节错月因素拖累4月出口增速6.7pct。春 节调整后，4月出口同比较3月回升4.0pct至8.1%。 4月出口偏强主因"抢出口"，包括通过新兴经济体"转出口"与通过加墨"转运"，"4月生产-下旬出港-5月中 旬美国到港"的抢出口数据链条均在改善。 从国别数据看，4月对东盟（+17.6pct到21.0%）、对韩国 （+8.1pct至-0.1%）等出口增速均明显上升。从中观指标看，4月制造业PMI生产指数仍维持49.8%的较高 水平。4月中下旬港口外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent press conference held by the State Council Information Office on May 7, 2025, which introduced a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations. The focus is on the implementation of monetary policies and measures to support various sectors, including real estate, capital markets, and private enterprises [1][10]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank introduced three types of monetary policy measures: quantity-based policies, price-based policies, and structural policies. Quantity-based policies include reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to increase long-term liquidity supply. Price-based policies involve lowering policy interest rates and structural monetary policy tool rates, including public housing loan rates. Structural policies aim to improve existing tools and create new ones to support innovation, consumption, and inclusive finance [2][11]. - A comprehensive RRR cut of 0.5 percentage points is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [7]. - The central bank also lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, which is projected to save banks approximately 150-200 million yuan annually in funding costs [4][12]. Financial Support for Real Estate and Capital Markets - The Financial Regulatory Bureau announced eight incremental policies to support real estate, capital markets, and private enterprises. These include accelerating the introduction of financing systems compatible with new real estate development models and expanding the scope of long-term investment trials for insurance funds [3][11]. - The demand side of the real estate market will benefit from a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, which is expected to save residents over 200 million yuan in interest payments annually [6][15]. Support for Private Enterprises and Innovation - The conference emphasized strong financial support for private enterprises and technological innovation. The central bank plans to use tools like innovation re-loans to increase credit support for private enterprises in technology sectors [5][14]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau proposed a comprehensive policy package to support private enterprise financing and provide precise financial services to entities significantly affected by tariffs [3][14]. Market Stability Initiatives - The policies aim to stabilize and activate capital markets through various measures, including enhancing the collaboration between the central bank and the China Investment Corporation to support stock market index funds and providing sufficient re-loan support [5][14]. - The introduction of a new merger and acquisition loan management approach is intended to facilitate industrial transformation and upgrading [8][14]. Overall Economic Context - The recent monetary policy actions are seen as a response to the stable performance of the real estate and stock markets, with the economy showing resilience, as indicated by a 5.4% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter [12][13].

Group 1: Policy Tracking - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of "doing our own things well" and highlighted "stabilizing employment" as a priority in the face of external risks [1][2] - The meeting called for rapid implementation of established policies, indicating that the speed of policy rollout will increase following the Two Sessions [2] - The focus will be on high-quality development and internal stability, with a flexible and unconventional policy approach expected to address economic data fluctuations [1][3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Stability - The government is implementing measures to expand employment opportunities, focusing on traditional sectors and new growth areas, with a central budget allocation of 667 billion yuan to support these initiatives [6][8] - Specific measures target key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers, and those in difficulty, with policies including job subsidies and training support [6][7] - The employment public service system is being enhanced to better match job seekers with available positions through targeted recruitment and skills training [7][8] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The government aims to establish a globally influential technology innovation hub, with a focus on artificial intelligence and high-end industry leadership [10][11] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing the national innovation system, promoting original innovation capabilities, and addressing key core technologies [11][12] - The integration of technology and industry is prioritized, with a call for a comprehensive approach to developing new productive forces [11][12] Group 4: Financial Support for SMEs - The People's Bank of China and financial regulatory authorities are working to improve financing services for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through standardized supply chain finance practices [14][15] - New regulations aim to ensure timely payments to SMEs and prevent core enterprises from abusing their positions [14][15] - The focus is on creating a supportive environment for SMEs to thrive, with measures to enhance credit risk management and promote diverse financing models [14][15] Group 5: Market Access and Regulatory Reform - The National Development and Reform Commission is launching a six-month campaign to clear market access barriers, addressing issues such as local approvals and regulatory inconsistencies [16][17] - The initiative aims to create a unified national market by eliminating unnecessary restrictions and improving the transparency of approval processes [16][17] - Public participation is encouraged in identifying and reporting barriers to market access, enhancing accountability and regulatory efficiency [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of consumption promotion policies in the context of economic challenges, highlighting the need for structural adjustments and support for both goods and service consumption [2][3][6]. Group 1: Historical Review of Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies (e.g., rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, consumption vouchers) and indirect support policies (e.g., tax reductions on vehicle purchases) [2][9]. - The first round of rural subsidies (2009-2012) had significant effects, supported by central and local fiscal subsidies, with a total investment of 76.5 billion yuan leading to sales of 659.76 billion yuan [20][23]. - Local governments have primarily used consumption vouchers since 2020, targeting various sectors like tourism and dining to stimulate local economies [16][18]. Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side limitations, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels [4][39]. - The housing market's downturn has significantly impacted household balance sheets, with housing loans constituting 53.8% of total loans, leading to reduced consumer confidence [47][49]. - Long-term challenges include an aging population and a mismatch between traditional supply and new consumption demands, which may hinder consumption growth [52][53]. Group 3: Expectations for Consumption Promotion - Future policies should focus on enhancing service consumption while maintaining strong growth in goods consumption, with an emphasis on structural optimization [6][63]. - The government is expected to implement measures to increase residents' income and reduce their financial burdens, such as lowering mortgage rates and providing rental subsidies [6][75]. - Stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is crucial for restoring household net income and boosting consumer confidence, as housing constitutes a significant portion of household assets [7][86].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," which have exceeded market expectations, leading to substantial volatility in financial markets. The average tariff rate for all imported goods in the U.S. has risen to 27%, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 146.2% [1][6][20] - The economic effects of tariffs are characterized by "stagflation," with debates surrounding the relative strength of stagnation versus inflation. Tariffs are expected to peak in their impact on inflation and economic growth within 3-4 quarters, with early inflation rates rising more steeply [2][20][74] - The article highlights that if tariff levels remain unchanged, the probability of a U.S. economic recession may significantly increase, with a potential shift from "stagflation" to "recession" starting in the third quarter of the year [20][74] Group 2 - The typical recession path in the U.S. involves overheating, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, credit tightening, and subsequent economic downturns. The current economic structure does not align with historical recession patterns, as private capital expenditure has not shown significant contraction [3][25][34] - The labor market and consumer spending are crucial to the U.S. economy, with rising unemployment rates being a necessary condition for recession. However, without external shocks, increases in unemployment may be temporary [4][44][32] Group 3 - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. financial markets have experienced significant turmoil, with notable pressure on liquidity. The refinancing pressures in the short term are a primary concern, but the transmission from liquidity shocks to systemic financial pressure remains manageable [5][49][50] - The article emphasizes that while short-term systemic risks in the U.S. financial market should not be overstated, long-term risks related to the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve should be monitored [49][74]

Global Macro Overview - During the May Day holiday, overseas risk assets showed signs of recovery, with major stock indices in the US, Asia, and Europe experiencing gains. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones rose by 2.9%, 3.4%, and 3.0% respectively [3][8] - Oil prices fell significantly due to supply shocks, with WTI and Brent crude dropping by 7.5% and 8.3% respectively [3][14] - The US dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.5%, while major currencies like the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar [12] US Economic Data - The second round of trade negotiations between the US and Japan did not yield significant breakthroughs, although some agreements were reached on agricultural quotas and automotive inspections [4][18] - The US economy unexpectedly contracted in Q1 2025, with a GDP growth rate of -0.3%, primarily due to increased imports and inventory accumulation [25][27] - April's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, adding 177,000 jobs, with notable improvements in transportation and warehousing sectors [35][36] Domestic Trends - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel remained high, with cross-regional travel volume increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting a significant rise in public transport usage [6] - There was a notable increase in cross-border and county-level tourism, with domestic flights up by 3.6% compared to the Spring Festival [6] - The central political bureau held a meeting to discuss policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment, emphasizing the need for timely policy adjustments [7]