Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a slight decline in industrial production, a rebound in consumption, and a comprehensive drop in investment, with real estate continuing to decline [1][15]. Demand Side Analysis - External demand is significantly impacted by tariff fluctuations, leading to a continued decline in exports to the U.S., while transshipment trade and European recovery support exports in a mid-high range [1][2]. - Domestic investment is broadly declining, influenced by weak real estate and infrastructure investments, while consumption is showing signs of recovery due to trade-in programs and consumption festivals [1][2]. Production Side Analysis - Industrial production growth rate fell to 5.8% year-on-year in May, primarily due to tariff disruptions affecting export strength [3]. - The service production index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% year-on-year, benefiting from the recovery in consumption [3]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.7% year-on-year, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [5][14]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, with information services and aerospace manufacturing seeing substantial year-on-year growth [9]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth rose to 6.4% in May, indicating enhanced consumption momentum, with significant contributions from home appliance and communication sectors benefiting from trade-in programs [10]. - Service consumption also showed recovery, with tourism-related growth accelerating and restaurant income increasing [10]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate fell to -3.3% year-on-year, with new housing sales declining while prices continue to rise [14]. - The construction area growth rate rebounded significantly, although new construction area growth remains negative [14]. Employment and Future Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a stable employment situation despite external disruptions [15]. - There is cautious optimism regarding external demand, with potential benefits from future tariff negotiations and European recovery efforts [15].

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

信贷同比延续少增。 5月份新增人民币贷款6200亿元，同比少增额收窄至3300亿元。其中，居民部门贷款新增540亿元，同比由多减转为少增217亿元，短期贷款减 少208亿元、中长期贷款增加746亿元，从同比变化来看，居民短贷同比多减额略降至451亿元，中长贷同多增额收窄至232亿元。企业部门贷款增加5300亿元，主要 由中长贷和短贷贡献，票据融资较弱，同比少增额降至2100亿元，从分项来看，企业短贷增加1100亿元，同比由多减转为多增2300亿元，企业中长贷增加3300亿 元，同比少增额继续扩大至1700亿元，票据融资规模增加746亿元，同比少增2826亿元 。 报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the potential impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" on the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt growth, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1][3][17] - The bill proposes a tax reduction of approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, accounting for about 5.8% of fiscal revenue, with a significant portion aimed at extending individual tax cuts [1][6][12] - The projected increase in net deficit is about $2.4 trillion over the next ten years, with spending cuts estimated at $1.5 trillion, primarily affecting healthcare, student loans, and food stamps [6][17][20] Group 2 - The bill includes provisions for punitive taxes on foreign investors, potentially raising an estimated $116.3 billion over ten years [8][10] - The Senate is expected to propose a more lenient version of the bill, allowing for a net deficit increase of up to $5.8 trillion, compared to the House's $2.4 trillion [12][13] - The current debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 120.8% by Q1 2025, surpassing World War II peaks, indicating growing concerns over fiscal sustainability [20][18] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury is likely to issue more short-term debt to manage cash flow, especially after the debt ceiling crisis is resolved [2][25][37] - The demand for short-term debt has been primarily driven by money market funds, with a significant reduction in overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) balances [26][28] - The introduction of stablecoin regulations may alleviate some pressure on short-term debt, as the market for stablecoins is growing rapidly [32][33]

能源项同比降幅收窄，受电价推升。 5月CPI能源项同比增速录得-3.5%，较上月回升0.2个百分点。 电价方面 ，电力价格已经连续4个月环 比上行，同比增速回升至4.5%，或受到数据中心用电量增加，以及美国天然气出口量上升的影响。 汽油项 同比增速降幅较上月继续下行 至-12%。5月下旬，在OPEC+宣布进一步提高产量后，布伦特原油现货均价跌至64.4美元/桶。6月以来，美国和中国在伦敦举行的贸易谈判 取得进展，布伦特原油均价回升，涨至68美元/桶。综合来看，由于全球贸易不确定导致需求预期低迷，油价或维持低位震荡，能源通胀或 维持较低水平 。 低基数下商品同比回升，关税影响局部显现。 5月核心商品同比增速上涨至0.3%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，主要受去年同期基数走低的影响。 从分项环比增速来看，新车与服装环比增速有所下行，而二手车价格环比增速不变，或受消费信心低迷影响。从二手车的领先指标来看，5月曼 海姆二手车价值指数环比增速录得-1.4%，主因消费者信心低迷，并回吐了部分4月关税政策落地后的涨价。 家具物资方面，洗衣机等大件家电 本月环比增速有所上行，这类商品对从中国进口依赖程度较高，关税影响在局部体现。 ...

Core Insights - The core CPI shows improvement year-on-year, while the PPI continues to expand its year-on-year decline. In May, the CPI decreased month-on-month, but the core CPI's year-on-year growth rate increased. The PPI's month-on-month decline remained stable, with a year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points, both influenced by fluctuations in international energy prices [1][3]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month. The core CPI recorded a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month. The CPI's year-on-year growth was affected by a tail effect contributing approximately -0.2 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about 0.1 percentage points [5][11]. - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with fresh fruits, pork, and seafood prices rising, collectively impacting the CPI by 0.21 percentage points. Conversely, fresh vegetables and egg prices decreased, affecting the CPI by -0.19 percentage points. Non-food prices remained stable compared to last month [5][8]. - Energy prices decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.7% month-on-month, impacting the CPI's year-on-year decline by approximately 0.47 percentage points. However, some sectors showed positive price changes, such as gold jewelry and household textiles, which increased by 40.1% and 1.9%, respectively [5][8]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline recorded -3.3% in May, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The tail effect contributed approximately -1.8 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about -1.5 percentage points. The production materials price decreased by -4.0% year-on-year, while the living materials price decreased by -1.4% [11][13]. - Major industries such as coal mining (-18.2%), oil and gas extraction (-17.3%), and kerosene processing (-14.7%) experienced significant price declines. However, prices in sectors like washing machine manufacturing and automobile manufacturing saw a reduction in their decline rates compared to last month [11][13]. - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, with production materials prices decreasing by 0.6%. The oil and gas extraction industry saw a price drop of 5.6%, while refined petroleum products and chemical industries also experienced declines [13].

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, showing resilience despite a high base effect and a 3.3 percentage point decline from April, with trade surplus continuing to expand [1][2][12] Export Performance - The export performance in May is characterized by a slight decline but remains robust, primarily driven by re-exports and a temporary easing of reciprocal tariffs [2][12] - The high base from the previous year and significant reciprocal tariffs in early May suppressed exports, while direct exports to the U.S. continue to decline [2][12] - In the latter half of May, the easing of reciprocal tariffs and high export levels to ASEAN and other re-export countries provided support for exports [2][12] Quantity and Price Analysis - The analysis of export growth by quantity and price indicates a decline in quantity-driven growth, while price drag has narrowed [4] - The significant drop in quantity-driven growth is attributed to tariffs and high base effects, with raw materials showing a notable decline in quantity contribution [4] Regional and Category Insights - Exports to the EU (12.1%) and Africa (33.5%) showed a counter-trend increase, while exports to other regions, including Latin America (2.3%) and the U.S. (-34.4%), saw significant declines [6] - The increase in exports to the EU is likely benefiting from European recovery and improved China-EU trade relations, while exports to ASEAN remain high [6] Product-Specific Trends - Integrated circuits continue to see strong re-export activity, with a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, while other electronic products experienced varying degrees of decline [8] - In the automotive sector, exports increased by 13.7%, and shipbuilding exports surged by 44% [8] - Labor-intensive products like clothing (3%) and toys (-0.6%) showed mixed results, with textiles (-1.9%) and footwear (-5.5%) experiencing more significant declines [8] Import Dynamics - In May, China's import growth rate fell to -3.4%, a decline of over 3 percentage points from April, with imports from major trading partners, except the EU (0%), also decreasing [10] - The decline in imports is attributed to reduced demand for assembly materials and weakening domestic demand [10] - Notably, imports of agricultural products saw a significant rebound, with soybeans increasing by 22.6% [11] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $103.22 billion in May, reflecting a recovery from April [12] - Future export outlook suggests that the temporary easing of reciprocal tariffs will expire in a month, and ongoing monitoring of high-frequency indicators is necessary to observe potential turning points in re-exports and direct exports [15]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold will experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are expected to trend upwards [1][13]. - Uncertainties in geopolitical negotiations, such as those involving the US and Iran, are contributing to the rebound in oil prices from their lows [13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand - New home sales, second-hand home sales, and passenger car sales have all declined, while the average monthly sales price of home appliances has shown a mixed trend with more increases than decreases year-on-year [3]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel and spending increased by 5.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively, with box office revenue reaching 460 million yuan, a 33.3% increase [4]. Group 3: External Demand - Export growth has generally slowed, with June showing a decline in high-frequency export indicators and shipping rates [6]. - Container arrivals from China to the US have shifted from an increase to a decrease, indicating reduced transshipment activity [7]. - South Korea's exports fell in May, particularly in steel and petroleum products [8]. Group 4: Production - Demand for steel is weak due to the off-season, leading to a decrease in production rates and prices [10]. - As summer approaches, coal and electricity demand may increase, although recent weather conditions have led to a temporary decline in coal consumption [11]. Group 5: Price Trends - Prices for major commodities have generally rebounded, while domestic prices for steel, glass, coal, and cement continue to decline [12]. - The article notes that the market's concerns over copper tariffs are supporting copper prices as they trend upwards [13].

报 告 正 文 就业前值再下修。 5月新增非农就业人数下降至13.9万人，同时3月和4月合计下修9.5万人。今年以来，新增非农就业人数持续下调，或意味着 当前就业水平存在一 定程度的高估。分行业来看，新增就业主要来源从政府转向服务业。 5月服务业新增就业较上月提升，政府裁员影响仍在持续显现，5月联邦政府就业减少2.2万 人，自1月以来已减少5.9万人。而制造业更容易受到关税政策的影响，新增就业较上月减少1.3万人。 劳动参与率下降。 5月失业率维持在4.2%，不过，劳动参与率下降0.2个百分点至62.4%，同时25-54岁黄金年龄群体的劳动参与率也有下行，永久退出劳动力市场的 人增加。6月初纽约联储报告显示，关税正在推高企业定价并影响招聘决策。此外，随着联邦政府削减开支，未来或减少对承包商、大学等工作岗位的需求。整体 来看，就业降温趋势不变。 新增非农就业放 缓 。 5月新增非农就业人数降至13.9万人，较上月延续减少。从长期趋势来看，新增就业人数基本走平，就业市场仍然保持较好势头。不过，3月 和4月新增非农就业人数均有下调，较上次报告合计下修9.5万人。年初以来，就业人数前值不断下修，意味着当前就业水平或被 ...

核 心 观 点 近期我国城镇调查失业率维持在 5.2% 上下，但失业保险基金的支出却保持较高增长。两者为何形成如此大的 差异？我国就业市场的环境到底如何呢？ 失业金支出，为何高增长 ？ 早在 2018 年，人社部就对《失业保险条例》进行修订，将失业保险基金的支出 范围扩大到预防失业领域，同时增强了保生活和促就业功能。因此，失业保险金支出还反映了促就业的政策力 度。不过，近期失业保险基金支出的增长，基本可以排除失业保险金支出范围调整的影响。当前大部分省份已 经确立起失业保险金标准与最低工资标准的联动机制。与此同时， 2023 年至今，所有省市均先后调升最低工 资标准，相应的失业金发放标准也多有提高，对于失业基金支出有一定影响。失业金支出的增长与就业环境有 关，不过，失业金领取情况对就业市场的反映有所滞后。政策规定失业保险金本身要低于当地的最低工资标 准，所以政策设计上鼓励失业人群尽快回到就业市场。那在短期内无法或者不愿回到就业市场的群体，才更有 可能选择去进行失业保险金的申领。 上市公司看就业：哪些行业是好雇主？ 从上市公司数据看， 2024 年上市公司员工总数增速放缓，平均月薪 有所下降。从行业角度看， 汽车 ...