Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in various fund types in Q4 2025, with an increase in stock, bond, commodity, and other fund types, while mixed and MOM funds saw a decrease in size compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the total management scale of public funds (excluding money market funds) reached approximately 22.66 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.65 trillion yuan from September 30, 2025 [2] - After excluding the ETF linked funds and internal fund holdings, the total scale of public funds (excluding money market funds) was approximately 21.68 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of about 0.54 trillion yuan [2] Group 3 - The scale of actively managed mixed equity funds, excluding FOF products, was approximately 4.40 trillion yuan as of December 31, 2025, a decrease of about 1.56 trillion yuan from the previous quarter [3] - The new issuance of actively managed equity funds has been strong since 2025, driven by a bullish A-share market and a clearer technology investment theme [3] Group 4 - The scale of actively managed bond funds, excluding FOF products, reached 9.31 trillion yuan as of December 31, 2025, an increase of about 1.59 trillion yuan from the previous quarter [3] - The top five actively managed bond funds raised less than 5 billion yuan each in Q4 2025, indicating a preference for bond-oriented products [3] Group 5 - The scale of FOFs, after excluding internal fund holdings, was approximately 172.84 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025, continuing a growth trend primarily driven by new product issuances [4] Group 6 - The total scale of other products, after excluding ETF linked funds and internal fund holdings, was approximately 669.16 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025, reflecting an increase of about 125.12 billion yuan [4] - The growth in other products was supported by rising international gold prices and increased interest in gold and silver-themed ETFs [4]

报告导读： 新设口岸进境免税店，有望与市内免税店协同，共同做大国内免税市场规模。 投资建议： 新设口岸进境免税店，有望与市内免税店协同，共同做大国内免税市场规模。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究所名义注 册的，或含有"国泰海通研究"，或含有与国泰海通证券研究所品牌名称相关信息的其他订阅号均不是国 泰海通证券研究所官方订阅号 本订阅号不是国泰海通证券研究报告发布平台 本订阅号所载内容均来 事件： 近日，财政部、商务部、文化和旅游部、海关总署、税务总局联合印发《关于口岸进境免税店有关事宜的通知》，设立调整一批口岸进境免税店。有 资格参与投标的公司为经国务院批准具有免税品经营资质的企业，包括：中国免税品（集团）有限责任公司、深圳市国有免税商品（集团）有限公司、珠海市 免税企业集团有限公司、中国出国人员服务有限公司、中国港中旅资产经营有限公司、王府井集团股份有限公司。 口岸进境免税店数量大幅增加，便利进境旅客免税购物消费。 本次在武汉天河国际机场等 41 个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued growth of fixed income and the strategic adjustments in equity exposure amidst market fluctuations, with a notable increase in financial bonds [1][2]. - In Q4 2025, the net subscription for fixed income + funds reached 160.55 billion units, showing a significant growth trend despite being lower than Q3 2025, primarily concentrated in secondary bond funds [1]. - Convertible bond funds saw a net subscription of 2.014 billion units in Q4 2025, maintaining a positive subscription trend for two consecutive quarters [1]. Group 2 - Institutional behavior regarding convertible bonds remains diverse, with public funds, social security, and trusts reducing their holdings in October and November, likely for profit-taking, followed by a renewed allocation in December [2]. - Insurance funds significantly reduced their convertible bond holdings, with a decrease of over 50% in face value by the end of 2025 compared to the beginning of the year [2]. - Public funds are actively seeking alternative bottom assets, showing a reduction in bank convertible bonds primarily due to the delisting of the Pudong Development Bank convertible bond, while still demonstrating a strong inclination to increase holdings in other sectors like electronics and defense [2]. Group 3 - In terms of marginal increases, public funds are diversifying their allocation while maintaining core themes, with notable increases in convertible bonds related to power equipment and oil and petrochemicals, as well as defense and military industries [3]. - Specific convertible bonds such as Long 22 and Jingneng convertible bonds have seen significant increases in holdings, reflecting resource and geopolitical logic [3]. - Other sectors like steel and basic chemicals are also seeing increased allocations, indicating a broader trend of investment across various cyclical and manufacturing chains [3].

国泰海通｜策略：价值也会有春天——"着力稳定房地产"政策点评 国泰海通｜策略：跨越，远望又新峰 国泰海通｜策略：转型牛：更高、更稳、更长 国泰海通丨中国"转型牛"，远望又新峰——2026年中国权益资产投资策略展望 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 查看完整回放 ▼ 重要提醒 关联阅读 ▼ ...

核心 观点：稳定房地产对于稳定国民经济、稳定内需增长、减少资产收缩与提振预期具有关键作用，在行业累年下行与估值收缩后，行业政策有望 出现重要拐点，推动投资机遇。 摘要 ▶转型牛迈向新高度：价值也会有春天。 无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革、经济结构转型，构成了当下中国股市"转型牛"的三大关键动力。其中中国产业 结构转型，经济社会发展不确定性下降，对投资线索的把握尤为关键。累年下行后，传统产业L型"一竖"走向"一横"，拖累边际减少；新技术产业迈入创新 扩张周期，中国制造业凭借竞争优势正在全球扩张，经济社会发展的不确定性下降。因此，"转型牛"的典型特点是经济结构转型与资本市场改革交相辉 映，2026年中国市场重估是广泛的，科技与非科技都有机会。对于传统经济而言，房地产对于稳定国民经济与内需增长、减少资产收缩与提振预期具有关 键作用，我们认为房地产政策渐行渐近，中国传统经济能见度正在提高，这将带来价值股和细分行业龙头的投资机会。 ▶行业累年下行，政策基调积极转向，地产与内需有望进入重要拐点。 中国房地产行业经过累年下行，已逐步完成深度调整，步入探底与磨底区间。截止 25Q4，我国住宅投资占GDP比重回落至4.5%，较2 ...

13:30-13:35 开场致辞 公司领导 国泰海通非银&银行&地产1月专题论坛 2026年1月23日-上海 陆家嘴 · 中国金融信息中心16楼国泰海通旗舰店 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 13:35-14:20 践行使命担当,服务居民财富管理 徐海宁-上海秩汇科技有限公司创始人 * 本次活动人数有限,请提前报名。 * 参会请联系您的国泰海通对口销售报名 或国泰海通非银金融、银行、地产分析师 研究运营组制作 14:20-15:05 居民财富管理新趋势 金 总-浦发银行财富管理部 15:05-15:50 重点70城房价趋势和2026年研判 李彦国-冰山指数创始人 15:50-16:00 2026房价矛在哪里? 涂力磊-国泰海通证券研究所所长助理、先进制 造组长、 ...

Core Insights - Uganda's economy is developing well with a stable social environment, rapid population growth, and increasing urbanization, making it a key player in the African cement market [2] - Cement production in Uganda has seen significant growth, increasing from 370,000 tons in 2000 to 5.1 million tons in 2023, driven by rising demand due to urbanization and economic development [2] - The supply landscape is characterized by only three clinker production lines, with major players like West Cement and Tororo holding a combined market share of 56% [2] Economic Overview - Uganda's economic vision is ambitious, with a strong currency against the US dollar and high foreign exchange liquidity [2] - The rapid urbanization and population growth are key factors driving the demand for cement in the country [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cement market is dominated by six major companies, with West Cement and Tororo leading in production capacity [2] - The lack of clinker production capacity among three of the companies contributes to a competitive yet constrained supply environment [2] Pricing and Profitability - Despite high cement prices (approximately $160 per ton), profitability is challenged due to high costs associated with clinker, raw materials, and transportation [3] - For instance, Bamburi Uganda reported a cost of $144 per ton in 2022, resulting in a low gross margin of only 10% [3]

三条传导链共振放大冲击： 第一条链是日本超长端利率上冲带动全球期限溢价被迫抬升，跨市场对冲与再平衡将冲击外溢至美债等全球长端。第二条链是美 欧冲突从贸易摩擦走向金融工具重定价的叙事升级，市场提前对跨境资金边际减配、对冲成本上升进行定价。第三条链是无风险利率上行叠加风险偏好下降对 新兴市场形成压力，高 β 与外债依赖型经济体因再融资与汇率敏感度更高而承压更明显。 这次波动的根本在于美国财政与债务路径的结构性约束。 2025 年底美国债务总规模高达 38 万亿美元， 2026 年又面临约 10 万亿美元规模的到期再融资 压力，供给吸收与融资成本对利率波动更为敏感 。 三大评级机构在 2025 年已一致下调美国主权信用评级，使市场更容易担心陷入 " 信用折价 → 更高收益 率 → 利息支出上升 → 融资成本走高 → 财政压力再恶化 " 的恶性反馈环。一旦叠加政治不确定性或流动性冲击，长端收益率与期限溢价更容易出现非线性 跳升，放大对全球风险资产与跨境资金流的冲击。 报告导读： 美日债市联动暴跌，政治摩擦与财政叙事引爆期限溢价跳升，超长久期资产遭 集中抛售，风险外溢全球。 2026 年 1 月 20 日全球债市遭遇大 ...

报告导读： 中观景气分化，受益于 AI 渗透率提升的科技硬件景气进一步强化，存储是增 长核心；科技制造出海趋势延续，电网出口高速增长。地产和耐用品景气仍承压。 AI 硬件景气强化，科技制造出海延续。 上周（ 01.05-01.11 ） 中观景气表现分化，景气线索有： 1 ） AI 渗透率提升及出海带动的新兴科技，国内半导体 产业链景气进一步提升， PCB/ 存储等 AI 硬件延续涨价，电网等电力设备出口高速增长； 2 ）供给受限推动的涨价周期品，产能出清较久，且下游需求预 期改善的碳酸锂价格大幅上涨； 3 ）受消费政策支撑且供需回暖的猪肉价格有所改善，出行和服务消费因春节错位效应，景气同增长放缓。传统地产建筑和 耐用品内需景气仍相对承压。 下游消费：生猪价格继续上涨，乘用车零售大幅下滑。 1 ）服务消费 & 食品： 2026 年第三周， 北京环球影城拥挤度指数同比 -62.7% ； 01.04-01.11 海南旅游价格指数同比增速回落至 +10.9% ；生猪价格环比 +2.4% ，主因冬季需求改善。 2 ）地产： 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比 -30.5% ， 其中 一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品房成交 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the robust demand for air travel during the Spring Festival travel season, with expectations for continued strong demand in 2026 [5] - It highlights a structural change in demand within the Chinese aviation market, indicating a shift towards private travel while business travel remains below pre-pandemic levels [3] Group 1: 2025 Aviation Demand and Supply - By 2025, China's civil aviation passenger traffic is projected to grow by 5-6% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [3] - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high, while ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with estimates suggesting domestic ticket prices will be lower in 2025 than in 2024 and 2019 [3] - The aviation supply is entering a low-growth phase, with ongoing structural changes in demand affecting profitability [3] Group 2: 2025 Spring Festival Travel Review - During the 2025 Spring Festival travel period, over 9 billion people are expected to travel, marking a 7% increase year-on-year [4] - Air travel is estimated to grow by 7% year-on-year, with domestic air travel increasing by 4-5% and international travel seeing nearly a 30% rise [4] - Domestic ticket prices are projected to decrease by nearly 10% year-on-year, influenced by high base numbers and increased high-speed rail services [4] Group 3: 2026 Spring Festival Outlook - The 2026 Spring Festival travel period is anticipated to maintain strong demand, with significant increases in ticket sales observed during the pre-sale phase [5] - The article notes that the peak travel days will likely occur before and after the holiday, with high load factors and market-driven ticket pricing benefiting airline revenue management [5] - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven pricing and structural recovery in demand, suggesting a positive outlook for profitability [5]