Core Viewpoint - The resumption of government bond trading by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is seen as a significant move to stabilize the bond market and provide a safety net for long-term interest rates, enhancing the attractiveness of long-term bond investments and trading opportunities [4][5]. Group 1: Short-term Market Reactions - The recent announcement of resuming government bond trading comes amid a strong stock market and stable bond market, indicating a potential response to the Fourth Plenary Session's directives [4]. - The bond market's short-term reaction shows that long-term bonds (10-year and 30-year) have seen yields drop by over 5 basis points, reflecting accumulated bullish sentiment rather than immediate PBOC actions [4]. - The strengthening of the RMB in the night market suggests that foreign investors may interpret the resumption of bond trading as an expansionary economic stimulus policy [4]. Group 2: Long-term Implications - The primary significance of resuming government bond trading is to provide insurance for the bond market, establishing an upper limit on long-term interest rates and improving the safety cushion for long-term bond investments [5]. - The PBOC's stance indicates a favorable overall bond market pricing, which opens up space for downward adjustments in long-term interest rates while maintaining control over potential disturbances from a strengthening stock market [5]. - In the context of increasing fiscal efforts and government leverage, the bond market's interest rate center should not rise too quickly, necessitating PBOC's bond purchases to support liquidity [5]. Group 3: Flexible Operations Post-Resumption - The operations of government bond trading post-resumption are expected to be more flexible, with uncertainty regarding the timing, direction, duration, and scale of transactions [6]. - The approach may resemble the reform of reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), allowing for adjustments based on market conditions rather than fixed strategies [6]. - Given the ample medium- to long-term funding already available, the release of significant funds through government bond trading is not anticipated, limiting the speculative value of short-term bonds [6]. Group 4: Broader Market Impact - The resumption of government bond trading is not only beneficial for the bond market but is also expected to support the stock market in the medium to long term [7]. - As a liquidity management tool, government bond trading can complement fiscal issuance, potentially benefiting equity assets under conditions of liquidity easing and fiscal stimulus [7]. - The short-term bond market is expected to validate the assessment of a "weak front, strong back" scenario for the fourth quarter, with the current 30-10 bond yield spread still having room for convergence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the strategic progression from China's "13th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing a shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with a focus on "technological self-reliance" and "expanding domestic demand" as dual engines for a new model that balances quality, efficiency, and safety [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Evolution - The planning focus has transitioned from "ensuring speed and efficiency" during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to establishing "high-quality development" in the "14th Five-Year Plan," and now to "deepening Chinese-style modernization" in the "15th Five-Year Plan," highlighting a profound transformation in China's economic development stage and social contradictions [1][2]. Group 2: Fundamental Changes in Growth Drivers - The economic growth engine has shifted from relying on factor inputs to being driven by innovation and domestic demand, with "technological self-reliance" rising to the primary task in the "15th Five-Year Plan" and "expanding domestic demand" becoming a strategic cornerstone [2]. Group 3: Systematic Upgrade of Target Framework - The indicator system has evolved from focusing on "quantity and scale" to "quality and efficiency," and further to "systemic effectiveness and equitable welfare," with specific changes in economic growth targets, innovation metrics, green indicators, and social welfare goals [2]. Group 4: Modernization of Governance Concepts - The implementation mechanism of the plans has progressed from government-led initiatives to a better combination of "effective market and proactive government," further deepening into "multi-party collaboration and systemic governance," with an emphasis on balancing development and security [2]. Group 5: Comprehensive Development Model - The evolution from the "13th" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" clearly demonstrates a maturing development model that prioritizes quality, efficiency, equity, safety, and sustainability, which not only shapes China's future but also provides significant insights and solutions for global development [3].

Economic Overview - South Africa's economic development is stagnant, but the country has a friendly foreign exchange environment and stable cement demand at around 12 million tons [2] - The financial sector is well-developed, and the country has abundant mineral resources and sufficient foreign exchange reserves [2] Supply and Demand - The supply structure is acceptable, with six major cement companies; PPC holds a 35% market share, while Huaxin Cement ranks fourth with a 13% share [3] - Cement demand has remained stable over the years, with no significant increase in production capacity, and even a decrease in active capacity [3] Import Impact - South Africa's cement imports are significant, projected at 1.69 million tons in 2024, with 88% sourced from Vietnam and 76% entering through Durban [4] Profitability - The ex-factory price of Dangote cement in South Africa is around $65 per ton, with high transportation costs leading to low profitability for PPC and Dangote [5] - There is potential for profitability improvement through policy measures to restrict imports and enhance domestic transportation conditions, as well as technological advancements to reduce costs [5] Carbon Tax Considerations - The imposition of a carbon tax in South Africa necessitates monitoring of its impact on policies and profitability [6]

Group 1: Luxury Goods Industry - The luxury goods sector in Q3 2025 showed better-than-expected performance, particularly in North America, with a slight improvement in consumption in mainland China [3][4] - Major brands like LVMH, Hermès, KERING, and PRADA reported revenue changes of +1.0%, +9.6%, -5.0%, and +8.5% respectively, all exceeding consensus expectations [3] - Miu Miu led the industry with a 29% revenue increase, while Hermès maintained a steady growth trend with a 9.6% increase [3] Group 2: Retail Performance in China - In September, China's retail sales for clothing and textiles grew by 4.7% month-on-month, indicating a faster pace compared to August [5] - The online retail sales of clothing items increased by 2.8% year-on-year from January to September, showing an acceleration in growth [5] - The export of Swiss watches showed a month-on-month improvement, with a 17.8% increase in exports to China, recovering from a significant decline in the previous year [5] Group 3: Adidas and Deckers Financial Guidance - Adidas reported Q3 revenue of €6.63 billion, with a neutral year-on-year growth of 8%, but raised its full-year revenue guidance to a neutral growth of 9%, below the consensus of 10% [4] - Deckers' FY26 Q2 revenue was $1.43 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, but its full-year guidance of $5.35 billion fell short of the consensus expectation of $5.45 billion [4] - Deckers anticipates that tariff impacts will become more pronounced in the second half of FY26, affecting consumer attitudes [4] Group 4: Tobacco Industry Trends - The new type of oral tobacco products, combining heated non-combustible and vaporized electronic cigarette characteristics, is gaining popularity globally [10] - The market for new oral tobacco products is expected to grow due to lower tax rates and less intense competition compared to vaporized electronic cigarettes [10][11] - PMI's $16 billion acquisition of ZYN's parent company and the FDA's approval of ZYN products are expected to catalyze industry growth [12]

Group 1: Agriculture Focus - The 14th Five-Year Plan continues to prioritize "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers," aiming to promote urban-rural integration and accelerate the construction of a strong agricultural nation [2] - The plan emphasizes enhancing agricultural comprehensive production capacity and quality efficiency, as well as improving the effectiveness of policies benefiting farmers [2] Group 2: Crop Prices - Since October, corn prices in major production areas have declined, with current spot prices at 2248.63 yuan per ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 0.64% [3] - The decline in corn prices is attributed to increased risks of damaged and rotten grains due to prolonged rainfall, delayed harvesting, and unsuitable storage temperatures [3] - Conversely, soybean prices have risen, driven by expectations of reduced new season soybean yields in Brazil due to continuous rainfall in the northern production areas [3] Group 3: Pet Industry Performance - During the Double 11 shopping festival, domestic pet brands performed excellently, with top rankings on Tmall's pet brand sales list [5] - Brands such as Xianlang, Fliegate, and Blue's ranked in the top five, showcasing strong performance from domestic companies [5] - Traditional foreign brands like Natural Balance and ZIWI have seen a decline in their rankings [5] Group 4: Blueberry Market - Attention is drawn to the market rhythm of Yunnan blueberries, which began to be listed in October [4]

报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2 ，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐 点，下行风险充分释放。 短期供需多因素累计影响，煤价超预期上涨。 自 9 月 15 日启动上涨以来，截至上周五煤价已超过 770 元 / 吨，本轮煤价呈现超预期上涨态势，这一现象 由多重因素利好共同推动。从短期视角判断，当前煤价已接近短期高点，后续进入冬季后，煤价或出现小幅回落，但回落空间整体有限。需要注意的是，冬季 煤价的具体走势，仍需持续跟踪今年冬季的天气状况，天气强度将对短期价格波动产生直接影响。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的核心原因，是 5 月份以 来煤炭行业供需格局发生根本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的大趋势不会改变 1 ）供给端： 反内卷影响下的煤炭供给，收缩幅度全行业领 跑。随着 7 月国家能源局插手煤炭"反内卷"， 7-9 月煤炭全国产量为 3.8 亿 、 3.9 亿、 4.1 亿吨，同比 连续下滑。展望全年产量，预计 Q4 受 " 查超产 " 影响全国产量预计小幅环比下降，预计后续 10-12 月产量预计维持 3.9-4 亿吨单月，全年产量 47.5 亿吨左右，同比下降 3000-5000 万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth in business volume, driven by the ongoing trend of small parcelization and the release of consumption potential in lower-tier markets [1][2]. Group 1: Business Volume and Trends - By August 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 128.2 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8% (on a comparable basis), indicating a counter-cyclical growth trend [1]. - The small parcelization trend continues, with expectations for resilient growth in business volume in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, particularly in the central and western regions and rural areas [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Revenue - From January to August 2025, the average revenue per express delivery ticket was 7.48 yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the decline has narrowed compared to the 12.3% drop at the end of 2024, suggesting a stabilization in pricing due to anti-involution policies [1]. - The anti-involution policies have spread nationwide, significantly improving the single-ticket revenue for companies and indicating a potential recovery in profitability for e-commerce express delivery firms in the latter half of the year and next year [2]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The scale effect is diminishing under the trend of small parcelization, leading to a slowdown in the decline of core costs per ticket. The cost reduction potential for transportation and transfer is narrowing [1]. - The introduction of unmanned vehicles is expected to open up cost reduction opportunities in last-mile delivery, although new social security regulations may lead to a short-term increase in costs per ticket [1].

Group 1 - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes accelerating the construction of a strong transportation nation and implementing urban renewal in the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors [1] - The 14th Five-Year Plan anticipates the construction and renovation of over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines, with an additional investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.0% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, maintaining a similar decline compared to August [2] - Exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 4.0 percentage points [2] Group 3 - In September, broad infrastructure investment fell by 8.0%, with the decline expanding by 25.5 percentage points compared to the same month in 2024 [3] - Narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 4.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 6.8 percentage points compared to 2024 [3] - Water conservancy investment dropped by 22.4% year-on-year, while public facilities investment fell by 12.4% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is expected to perform well in the long term due to increasing great power competition and the emphasis on national defense modernization as outlined in the recent Party Congress [1][2]. Group 1: Military Industry Performance - The military sector has seen an increase, with the defense and military index rising by 2.60% during the week of October 20-24, underperforming the overall market by 0.28 percentage points [3]. - The China Securities National Security Index performed the best among military indices, increasing by 3.55% during the same period [3]. Group 2: Strategic Goals and Modernization - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the centenary military goals and advancing the modernization of national defense and the military [3]. - Key strategies include implementing Xi Jinping's strong military thought, adhering to the Party's absolute leadership over the military, and advancing the integration of mechanization, information technology, and intelligence [3]. - The session outlined a "three-step" strategy for modernization, focusing on political, reform, technological, talent, and legal aspects of military development [3].

Macro - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a shift from "catching up" to "leading" in technology innovation, indicating a strategic focus on achieving technological advancements [4] - The construction of a modern industrial system highlights a dual-driven approach of advanced manufacturing and high-quality service industries [5] - The importance of domestic demand is prioritized over supply-side measures, reflecting a shift in policy focus [6] - The reform of the system includes accelerating the improvement of market-oriented allocation mechanisms for factors of production [6] - The emphasis on institutional openness has been significantly elevated, indicating a commitment to deepening reforms [7] - The focus on social welfare has been enhanced, with a more precise emphasis on ensuring basic living standards and equity [8] - The current economic pressures observed since the third quarter have been acknowledged, with expectations for new policies to be implemented in the fourth quarter [9] Overseas Strategy - The financial standards for listing are most flexible in the US, followed by Hong Kong, while A-shares have the strictest requirements [13] - The US market is the most inclusive regarding company structures, accepting various frameworks like WVR and VIE, while A-shares maintain a more cautious stance [14] - Listing efficiency is higher in the US and Hong Kong, with A-shares having a longer application process due to stringent regulatory scrutiny [15] Light Industry and Paper - Short-term supply of imported wood chips remains stable, but long-term supply of wood for pulping is limited due to the scarcity of forest resources [19] - Demand for broadleaf wood is expected to grow rapidly, with significant increases in production capacity projected from 2023 to 2035 [19] - Brazil is identified as a key player in eucalyptus production, with potential for yield improvements through modern cultivation techniques [19] - In China, Guangxi leads in eucalyptus production, but there are concerns about declining yields and the need for improved forestry practices [20] - The demand for imported eucalyptus has decreased, but short-term supply remains assured, particularly from Vietnam and Australia [21]