法律声明 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 ...

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advancement of AI+AR glasses through the integration of video functionality and multimodal reasoning models, positioning them as the optimal platform for multimodal interaction [1][2]. Group 1: Product Development - Doubao APP launched a video call feature on May 23, enabling video chat and question-answering based on visual reasoning models, supporting online searches for work, life, and study-related queries [2]. - AI+AR glasses leverage cameras for image input and can integrate with devices like rings, watches, and bands, facilitating various interaction methods such as voice, display, gestures, eye movement, and touch [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The year 2023 is expected to see a surge in AI glasses releases, with Meta's Rayban-Meta AI glasses selling over 2 million units since their September launch, and further releases from Rokid and other major companies anticipated in 2025 [3]. - Global AI glasses shipments are projected to grow significantly, with an estimated 2.34 million units expected to be sold in 2024 and 5.5 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 135% [3].

Group 1 - The company maintains a tactical underweight view on Japanese stocks due to a slowing economic recovery and high inflation risks, leading to lower risk-return ratios in the equity market [1] - The company holds a tactical overweight view on government bonds, citing a stable economic recovery and favorable interest rate conditions, with mid to short-duration bonds offering higher allocation value compared to long-duration bonds [1] - The company adopts a tactical neutral view on gold, recognizing its role as a hedge against geopolitical risks and economic downturns, while noting potential price volatility due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies [2] Group 2 - The domestic active asset allocation portfolio achieved a return of 0.11%, outperforming the benchmark index by 0.10%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.72% as of May 25, 2025 [3] - The global active asset allocation portfolio recorded a return of 0.03%, matching the benchmark index, with a cumulative excess return of 3.11% as of May 25, 2025 [3]

拨云见日，掘金多瑙 —— 欧洲国 别研究专题系列 一 （一、宏观经济与地缘变化） 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院 国别研究负责人 陈熙淼 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院 院长助理 汪立亭 全球地缘格局和大国博弈背景下，中欧关系与经贸投资往来同步面临深刻挑战与机遇。本篇报告作 为国别研究之欧洲研究系列专题一，期望从经济、地缘、投资、金融等视角深度剖析和解读，如何 在当下多边主义时代看待欧洲投资机会，并为中国企业赴欧洲出海投资提供更多维度的分析视角。 欧洲经济形势，或已迈过近年低点。 2025 年一季度至今，欧洲地区工业生产活动已从低位逐步回 升，但消费信心仍低迷。 一季度受美国加征关税政策、德法国内政治局势变化、俄乌战争谈判再现 波折等影响，欧盟制造业产能利用率一度触及 2021 年以来的最低点，但进入二季度，包括特朗普关 税政策等在内各项因素缓和，欧洲产能利用率好转， 4 月制造业 PMI 逆势回升。就业方面，欧元区 劳动力市场表现稳定， 4 月失业率维持在 2000 年以来历史低位。通胀方面， 2025 年欧洲通胀率整 体可控，全年通胀有望回归 2% 目标，并为后续欧洲央行降息提供空间。对外贸易方面，一季度欧 ...

Coal Industry - The coal market is showing signs of a turning point, with April production data indicating a decrease in output due to high-cost regions being forced to cut production. National coal production in April was 390 million tons, down 50 million tons from March's 440 million tons, reflecting a widespread decline across most provinces [1] - The decline in production is attributed to rapid price drops and economic pressures on companies, leading to expectations of further production decreases in May. The supply contraction is occurring faster than anticipated, with port prices continuing to decline since late April [1] - For thermal coal, prices are expected to rebound in June, with the current price at 621 RMB/ton, down 3 RMB/ton (-0.5%) from the previous week. Domestic supply remains stable while imports are decreasing, and daily consumption is expected to turn around, potentially restoring balance in supply and demand [2] - Coking coal prices are stable at 1300 RMB/ton at the Jing Tang port, with daily pig iron production at 2.435 million tons, indicating a peak in iron production. The stabilization of thermal coal prices is expected to set a bottom for coking coal prices as well [2][3] - As of May 23, 2025, the price of coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1320 RMB/ton, with a total inventory of 2.94 million tons, down 1.9%. The operating rate of coking enterprises is at 81.62%, showing a slight increase [3] Robotics Industry - The G1 robot has demonstrated strong balance and high motion fluidity in combat competitions, indicating potential for accelerated commercialization due to advancements in motion control models and simulation data training [5] - Despite the G1 robot's impressive performance in specific movements, its action capabilities are still limited to a few specific actions, highlighting the need for improved generalization abilities in robotic motion control [6] - The development of motion control models and enhanced simulation training environments are seen as catalysts for improving the performance and commercial viability of robots [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its consolidation next week, influenced by technical indicators and upcoming holiday-related risk aversion among investors [1][2]. Market Analysis - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.13 on Friday, lower than the previous week (2.63), indicating current market liquidity is 1.13 times above the average level of the past year [2]. - The put-call ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.94 from 1.03, suggesting a decline in investor caution regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.85% and 1.40%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity, positioned at the 58.47% and 68.54% percentiles since 2005 [2]. Macro Factors - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates increasing by 0.2% and 0.52%, respectively [2]. - Historical data shows that from May 2005 onwards, the probability of the SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index rising in the latter half of May was 45%, 45%, 50%, and 47%, with average gains of -0.1%, -0.02%, 0.67%, and 1.71% [2]. Event-Driven Factors - The US stock market experienced a downward trend last week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices reporting weekly returns of -2.47%, -2.61%, and -2.47%, respectively [2]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan for May, marking the third consecutive month of increased liquidity [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke below the SAR point on May 23, but the moving average strength index remains above average, indicating no bottoming pattern has emerged [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 154, positioned at the 62.5% percentile since 2021 [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of May 19-23, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.18%, the CSI 300 index also decreased by 0.18%, the CSI 500 index dropped by 1.1%, and the ChiNext index declined by 0.88% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.0 times, which is at the 50.6% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observations - The crowding degree for low valuation factors has decreased, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.91, low valuation factor crowding at 0.25, high profitability factor crowding at -0.23, and high profitability growth factor crowding at -0.03 [3]. - Industry crowding is relatively high in machinery equipment, comprehensive, retail, environmental protection, and automotive sectors, while transportation and non-ferrous metals sectors have seen a significant increase in crowding [3].

Macro - Japan's ultra-long bond yields have risen significantly due to increased market concerns over bond supply shocks from fiscal expansion influenced by tariffs [1] - Demand for ultra-long bonds from domestic institutions has been weak since 2025, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance [1] - The recent cold reception of Japanese government bond auctions has exacerbated negative market sentiment [1] - Future attention should be paid to upcoming government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan, and the results of the July Senate elections [1] Fixed Income - Japan's 20-year government bond auction showed a rapid decline in market demand, reaching a new low since 2012, with the auction tail spread hitting the highest level since 1987 [4] - The yield on Japan's 20-year bonds surged to 2.539%, the highest since 2000, while the 10-year and 30-year yields also reached record highs [4] - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio was 219.15% in Q1 2025, the highest among developed economies, with rising interest rates further increasing debt servicing costs [5] - The Bank of Japan's ongoing reduction in bond purchases necessitates finding new buyers for government bonds [5] - Rising inflation and interest rate pressures in Japan make long-term bond yields difficult to decrease [5] - The rapid rise in Japanese bond yields poses risks of fiscal strain, losses for bondholders, and potential spillover effects on global bond markets [6] - The impact of rising yields on China's bond market is expected to be limited due to differing inflation environments and fiscal conditions [6] Non-Ferrous Metals - The lithium and cobalt sectors are experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium prices showing signs of stabilization despite high inventory levels [8] - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a weekly average of 61,600 yuan/ton, down 2.25% from the previous week [9] - Cobalt raw material supply is tightening, but demand remains cautious, leading to a weak overall market [10] - Phosphate iron lithium and ternary material prices have also seen declines, with phosphate iron lithium averaging 30,300 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [11]