投资建议： 近期科技板块利好持续释放，各类新技术、新政策、新业态持续落地，我们维持计算机板块 " 增持 " 评级。 报告导读： 中国香港发布《稳定币条例》，带动稳定币市场增长进入全新阶段，政务数据 与 AI 领域也同样在持续稳步发展。 本文摘自：2025年6月8日发布的 稳定币发展迎来重大利好，政务数据与AI同样值得关注 杨 林 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040027 杨昊翊 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040126 魏 宗 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040058 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 中国香港《稳定币条例》将于 8 月 1 日生效，稳定币发展迎来重大利好。 根据 21 世纪经济报道官微， 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article systematically categorizes A-share listed companies into four lifecycle stages: startup, growth, maturity, and consolidation, based on cash flow, and constructs corresponding optimal portfolios for each stage, achieving annualized excess returns of 14.0%, 15.0%, and 19.5% relative to benchmark indices since 2016 [1][3]. Group 1: Lifecycle Stages Characteristics - Startup companies typically have smaller market capitalizations, unstable profitability, and low dividend yields, but invest heavily in R&D [1]. - Growth companies show improved profitability with a balanced exposure across various factors [1]. - Mature companies are characterized by large market capitalizations, stable profitability, high dividend payout ratios, and healthier capital structures with lower debt ratios [1]. - Consolidation companies experience reduced scale, poorer profitability, lower dividend yields, and higher leverage with significant debt repayment pressures [1]. Group 2: Performance and Risk Characteristics - The buy-and-hold combinations across different lifecycle stages exhibit varying risk-return profiles, with mature companies showing the most stability and highest cumulative returns over time [2]. - Growth stock portfolios perform closely to market indices, while startup and consolidation stock portfolios exhibit higher volatility and lower returns [2]. - Factor performance varies across lifecycle stages, with low volatility and low turnover rates performing best in the riskier startup and consolidation phases [2]. Group 3: Optimal Portfolio Construction - The company constructs optimal portfolios for each lifecycle stage considering investment logic, factor effectiveness, and correlations, with the mature portfolio demonstrating the highest stability and an annualized return of 16.9% since 2016 [2]. - The mature portfolio has shown positive excess returns relative to common broad indices like the CSI All Share Index, CSI 300, and CSI 800 in most years, except for a 12% decline in 2018 [2].

Group 1: Cement Industry - The national cement market price decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, with price drops mainly in Shanxi, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangdong, ranging from 10 to 20 CNY per ton [1] - Some regions, including Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangxi, experienced price increases of 20 to 30 CNY per ton [1] - Domestic cement demand remains weak due to multiple adverse factors, with an average shipment rate of 48% in key regions [1] - Although the Yangtze River Delta region has started to increase prices, the overall demand insufficiency and unclear peak production execution may hinder the effectiveness of this price increase [1] Group 2: Glass and Fiberglass - The average price of float glass in China is 1250.27 CNY per ton, down by 20.69 CNY per ton from the previous week, indicating a weak market with increased inventory due to the Dragon Boat Festival [2] - The fiberglass market saw local high prices decrease, while electronic yarn prices remained stable; however, demand is still weak with limited order growth [2] - The overall supply of non-alkali fiberglass is expected to maintain a certain growth rate, but competition among leading companies remains strong [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - June marks the beginning of a low base period for construction materials demand, with a significant decline expected from June to September 2024 due to local debt pressures in developed regions [3] - The glass processing sector shows resilience, with leading companies benefiting from high barriers to competition and favorable valuation and dividend advantages [3] - The fiberglass sector is seeing gradual price increases for long-term contracts, with leading companies having a higher sales proportion of high-end products [3]

Group 1: IPO Market Insights - The regulatory environment is increasingly supportive of high-quality IPO development, particularly for technology innovation companies, with multiple reforms implemented since 2025 [1][2] - New stock first-day price increases remain high, and the number of accounts participating in new stock subscriptions is rapidly recovering, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The expected number of new stock issuances in 2025 is projected to be between 80 to 140, with a total fundraising scale around 94 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Shipping and Transportation Sector - The shipping industry is experiencing ongoing impacts from tariff policies, with a focus on the restructuring of shipping alliances and the potential for changes in global trade patterns [3] - The oil shipping sector is benefiting from increased crude oil production, which is expected to boost demand, alongside a favorable outlook due to the potential for falling oil prices [4][5] - The dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to gradually recover, driven by increased iron ore production and a potential rise in demand [6] Group 3: Bearing Industry and Robotics - The rise of humanoid robots is expected to create significant demand for bearings, particularly as high-end bearings and processing equipment currently rely heavily on imports, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [9][10] - The global bearing market is projected to grow from 121.3 billion USD in 2021 to over 243.03 billion USD by 2030, with China being a major manufacturing hub [10][11] - The complexity of bearing processing technology presents challenges, particularly in high-precision grinding equipment, where domestic production is still below 50% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in promotional strategies during the 618 shopping festival, focusing on longer promotional periods and direct discounts per item rather than relying on GMV metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Platform Dynamics - The 618 promotional period has been extended to 38 days for JD.com, with Tmall and Douyin also adjusting their promotional timelines to enhance user decision-making [3]. - Major platforms are moving away from traditional cross-store discounts to "official direct discounts," with reductions of at least 15% and some items seeing discounts of up to 50% [3]. - The new single-item discount policy is expected to simplify user purchasing decisions, potentially increasing conversion rates despite a possible decline in overall GMV [3]. Group 2: Corporate Strategies - National subsidies are enhancing discount offerings, with brands like Ecovacs and Roborock providing significant price reductions during the 618 event [4]. - The pricing strategy for new and high-end SKUs has been adjusted, with discounts allowing for competitive pricing around 2000 yuan for flagship products [4]. - The anticipated increase in sales volume during the 618 event is supported by the combination of national subsidies and enhanced brand pricing strategies, although competition remains intense [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance Insights - Initial sales data from the first week of the 2025 618 event indicates a slowdown in overall industry growth compared to earlier months, attributed to the removal of the order bundling discount mechanism [5]. - Despite the potential decline in GMV, the actual conversion rates and return rates may improve, warranting further observation of corporate performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward in the coming week, supported by technical indicators and liquidity metrics [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock index for the CSI 300 was 0.30, indicating higher liquidity than the average level over the past year by 0.30 standard deviations [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.85, reflecting a reduced caution among investors regarding short-term movements [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.82% and 1.40%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates saw weekly increases of 0.15% and 0.25%, respectively [2]. - The official manufacturing PMI for China in May was reported at 49.5, matching expectations, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI was lower at 48.3 [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke through the SAR point on June 4, signaling a buy opportunity, with the moving average strength index scoring 207, placing it in the 81.6% percentile since 2021 [2][3]. Market Performance - For the week of June 2 to June 6, the SSE 50 index rose by 0.38%, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.88%, the CSI 500 index grew by 1.6%, and the ChiNext index surged by 2.32% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.2 times, which is in the 52.3% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Analysis - Small-cap factors performed well, with a crowding degree of 1.05, while low valuation factors had a crowding degree of 0.06 [3]. - The industry crowding degree is relatively high in machinery, comprehensive, retail, environmental protection, and beauty care sectors, with notable increases in beauty care and banking [3].

Group 1: Core Insights - Stablecoins are expected to alleviate short-term U.S. debt demand but have limited impact on long-term debt [1][3] - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $240 billion since 2025, with significant penetration in crypto trading, cross-border payments, and DeFi [1][2] - The market is highly concentrated, dominated by Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. GENIUS Act establishes a systematic regulatory framework for stablecoins at the federal level, enhancing market development [2] - Tether and Circle have become significant new buyers of U.S. Treasury securities, holding over $120 billion in short-term U.S. debt [2] - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation enhances local compliance and serves as a regional model for global stablecoin regulation [2] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Debt - Citigroup predicts the global stablecoin market could grow to $1.6 trillion by 2030, with a potential $1 trillion increase in short-term U.S. debt demand if stablecoin market reaches $2 trillion [3] - The GENIUS Act limits stablecoin reserves to cash or U.S. Treasury securities maturing within 93 days, restricting their impact to short-term debt [3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Stablecoins exhibit "shadow banking" characteristics, posing systemic risks such as potential "de-pegging" and bank run scenarios [4] - The expansion of stablecoins may siphon deposits from the banking system, affecting credit expansion and monetary policy transmission [4] - Regulatory frameworks like the GENIUS Act and Hong Kong's regulations set high standards but require ongoing attention to risk transmission and regulatory arbitrage [4]

Core Insights - The main differences between the Shanghai and Shenzhen credit bond indices lie in duration, constituent bonds, and issuer concentration [1][2][4] - The total scale of credit bond ETFs has significantly increased, with a net growth of 95.4% since Q2, reaching a total scale of 304.2 billion yuan [1][4] Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Overview - The total number of bond ETFs in China has reached 29, with credit bond ETFs accounting for 11 of them, totaling 156.5 billion yuan, which is 51.45% of the total bond ETF scale [1][2] - The scale of credit bond ETFs has increased by 764 billion yuan since Q2, with individual ETFs showing growth rates between 104% and 201% [1][4] Group 2: Comparison of Shanghai and Shenzhen Indices - The Shanghai credit bond index consists of 212 constituent bonds with a total scale of 587.7 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen index has 220 bonds totaling 364 billion yuan [2][3] - The weighted duration of the Shanghai index is 4.11 years, compared to 3.05 years for the Shenzhen index, indicating a longer duration for the Shanghai index [2][4] Group 3: Growth of Constituent Bonds - The number of constituent bonds in the Shanghai index has increased by 44 since the end of 2024, while the Shenzhen index has seen an increase of 102 [3] - The total scale of constituent bonds in the Shanghai index has grown by 92.5 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen index has increased by 101.7 billion yuan [3]

Group 1 - The overall economic operation remains stable, with a temporary pause in the impact of holidays and tariffs [1] - Post-holiday consumption of goods and services has seen a decline, while investment in infrastructure is slowing down and real estate is under pressure, although construction progress is marginally accelerating [1] - Port operations are returning to normal, with a short-term increase in freight rates followed by a relief in tight shipping capacity [1] Group 2 - Production indicators in industries such as coal, electricity, steel, and automobiles have shown a year-on-year decline [1] - There is a continuous reduction in coal inventory, while the PTA industry chain exhibits a divergence in inventory levels between upstream and downstream [1] - Consumer prices for most goods have risen, while most industrial products have decreased in price, with only slight increases in crude oil and construction-related materials like asphalt and copper [1] Group 3 - After the month-end, liquidity conditions have improved with a decline in funding rates, and the renminbi has appreciated [1]

投资建议： 新消费与价值成长并行，大众品首选成长，重视换季消费机会，白酒绝对价值显现。 报告导读： 新消费与价值成长并行，把握换季机会，估值提升。白酒短期受政策影响，长 期绝对价值凸显。大众品啤酒饮料旺季催化，大单品新渠道成长性凸出。 新消费与价值成长并行，标的分化和估值提升。 一方面， 新渠道和新品类创新驱动新消费结构性红利， 主要体现在零食、保健品、食品添加剂赛道；另一方面，传统食品饮料龙头依赖强大的产品创新能力、渠 道拓展能力实现大单品的稳健强劲增长，主要体现在啤酒、饮料赛道。我们预计新消费与价值成长并行， 龙头间或将逐步出现分化，新消费标的估值有望创新高，传统消费估值或将提升。 白酒：短期受政策影响，长期绝对价值凸显。 近期中共中央、国务院印发修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反 对浪费条例》，其中涉及用酒部分我们认为属于纪律的再度强调，我们预计白酒行业龙头或将持续挖掘新 场景和潜在增量，加速白酒商品属性重塑和消费结构转型。对于白酒板块，我们延续前期观点，行业 2025Q2 产业景气度环比角度仍在寻底，价格端压力大于量的压力，大部分企业短期业绩表现愈发依赖于 核心市场的市占率提升，且愈发依赖于腰部及以下单品驱 ...