宏观经济分析报告 | | 政策动向等待数据确认 | | --- | --- | | | -宏观经济周报 | | 分析师:周喜 | SAC NO: S1150511010017 2025年6月20日 | | 证券分析师 . | 就外围环境而言,美国方面,尽管与 GDP 联系更为密切的"控制组"零售销 | | 周喜 | 售 5 月环比增速较此前有所改善,但在前期抢购热潮消退下,整体零售销 | | 022-28451972 | | | zhouxi@bhzq.com | 售环比增速还是现近 1 年以来最大降幅,特别是汽车销售成为主要拖累。 | | | 另外,代表服务业的餐厅和酒吧销售额环比增速也出现大幅下降。中美临时 | | 宋亦威 | 关税协议有助于短期消费者情绪缓和,但更实质的劳动力市场走弱风险仍 | | SAC NO: S1150514080001 | 会给消费带来压力。同样,5月工业产出也释放出经济放缓的信号,剔除波 | | 022-23861608 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 动较大的汽车制造业外的其他制造业产出环比增速连续两月下滑,尚在讨 | 研 究 报 F 周 报 有色金属价格涨跌 ...

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 利率延续走强，利差表现分化 | 益 | | | | | ――利率债周报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分析师： 王哲语 | | SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 20 日 | | | | | 研 | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | 统计区间：2025 年 6 月 13 日至 2025 年 6 月 19 日 | | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 王哲语 | ⚫ | 重点事件点评 | | | | | 究 | 022-23839051 |  | 月社融主要靠债券类融资支撑，包括政府债券和企业债券融 金融数据：5 | | | | | | | | 资，企业中长贷仍较疲弱，与化债及融资需求不足因素有关。后续可关注 | | | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | | 5 月降息的滞后反馈效果。 | | | | | | |  | 经济数据：5 月生产和投资数据边际回落，"以旧换新"领域的社零数据 | | | | | | ...

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.20） 宏观及策略研究 科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨会纪要（2025/06/20） 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/06/20） 宏观及策略研究 科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 13 日-6 月 19 日），重要指数纷纷收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 1.19%，创业板指收跌 1.95%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.26%，中证 500 收跌 2.12%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区间内成交 6.33 万亿元，日均成交额达到 1.27 万亿元 ...

投资策略 +-[Table_MainInfo]科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡 ――A 股市场投资策略周报 | 分析师： 严佩佩 | | SAC NO： | S1150520110001 2025 年 6 月 19 日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | 严佩佩 |  | 市场回顾，近 | 个交易日（6 月 日-6 月 日），重要指数纷纷收跌； 13 19 | | | 5 | | 022-23839070 | | 其中，上证综指收跌 | 1.19%，创业板指收跌 1.95%；风格层面，沪深 | 300 | | | | SAC NO:S1150520110001 | 收跌 | 1.26%，中证 | 收跌 2.12%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区 | | 500 | | | yanpp@bhzq.com | 间内成交 | 6.33 | 万亿元，日均成交额达到 万亿元，较前五个交易日 1.27 | | | | | | ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for May 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the expected 6.0% and the previous value of 6.1% [3] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, below the expected 4.1% and the previous value of 4.0% [3] - The decline in industrial added value is attributed to fewer working days and a lag in production due to tariff adjustments, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries like textiles [3] - The service sector's production index grew by 6.2%, indicating a slight improvement from April [3] Consumption Growth Challenges - The significant rise in retail sales is driven by holiday consumption and promotional activities, reaching a new high in nearly a year [4] - Automotive sales increased by 11.2% year-on-year, but overall sales revenue growth is limited due to pricing factors [4] - Future consumption may struggle to maintain current levels due to policy adjustments and potential overconsumption [4] Investment Needs Policy Support - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for two consecutive months, with manufacturing investment decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year [4] - Ten out of twelve sub-sectors in manufacturing saw a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in transportation equipment and non-ferrous metal smelting [4] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased to 9.3%, with local debt pressures limiting project funding [5] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline, with sales in major cities dropping and funding sources for real estate companies decreasing by 10.5% year-on-year [5] Fixed Income Research - The overall issuance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a range of -7 basis points to 6 basis points [7] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds seeing an increase in net financing [7] - The secondary market for credit bonds has seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with most varieties experiencing growth [7] - The credit spreads for medium and short-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds have generally narrowed [7] Industry Research - The metal industry is experiencing traditional seasonal characteristics, with demand expected to decline as summer approaches [15] - Steel prices are expected to remain weak due to increasing inventory pressures [15] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, but lack upward momentum in the short term [15] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions and geopolitical factors, with a need to monitor macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations [15] - The lithium market faces oversupply issues, leading to expected price weakness [15]

Macro and Strategy Research - In May, social financing increased by over 200 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing being a major support, also increasing by over 200 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Corporate short-term loans showed significant year-on-year growth, while medium and long-term loans decreased due to insufficient demand, particularly in a competitive internal environment [2] - M1 year-on-year growth rate rebounded in May, driven by increased fiscal spending and a decrease in the base from the previous year [3] Fund Research - The market saw mixed performance among major indices, with 13 out of 31 industries rising; the top five performing industries included non-ferrous metals and oil and petrochemicals [4] - The net inflow of funds was primarily in the technology and consumer sectors, while active equity fund positions decreased to 72.78%, down by 3.57 percentage points [5] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 29.50 billion yuan, with significant outflows from stock ETFs, indicating a shift towards bond ETFs due to risk aversion [5] Industry Research - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector remains highly popular, with the blind box market expected to exceed 58 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2020 to 2025 [7][10] - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed it by 0.31 percentage points [7] - The Guangzhou government has proposed measures to boost consumption, which may positively impact the home improvement and home furnishing sectors [10]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the largest increase of 1.73%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.68%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.04% [2] - As of June 10, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,811.46 billion yuan, an increase of 12.36 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing balance was 1,799.24 billion yuan, up by 11.95 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 12.22 billion yuan, which increased by 0.42 billion yuan [2] Industry Insights - The electronic, computer, and machinery equipment sectors had significant net buying in margin trading, while the food and beverage, banking, and coal sectors saw less net buying [3] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in May were 84.5 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 3.86% [5] - Excavator sales in May reached 18,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, while loader sales were 10,500 units, up 7.24% [5] Company Announcements - Zhejiang Lino plans to acquire 100% of Xuzhou Chemical Machinery Co., Ltd. [6] - Laisai Laser has adjusted the expected operational date for its fundraising project to August 1, 2026 [6] Performance Review - From June 4 to June 10, the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.35%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 0.73%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.38 percentage points [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector as of June 10 was 26.18 times, with a valuation premium of 117.57% compared to the CSI 300 [8] Future Outlook - Cumulative excavator sales from January to May reached 101,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.40%, with domestic sales at 57,500 units, up 25.70% [8] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the machinery equipment sector, emphasizing the potential for urban renewal initiatives to drive steady demand for construction machinery [8]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [5] - Specific companies recommended for "Increase" rating include Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [5] Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, while loader sales were 10,535 units, up 7.24% year-on-year [13][14] - Cumulative excavator sales from January to May 2025 totaled 101,716 units, reflecting a 17.40% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 57,501 units, up 25.70% [4][13] - The average working hours for major construction machinery in May 2025 were 84.5 hours, a decrease of 3.86% year-on-year [14] - The construction machinery industry is currently in a renewal cycle, with urban renewal initiatives expected to steadily boost engineering demand amid a sluggish real estate sector [4][31] Industry Data - As of June 10, 2025, the Shenyin Wanguo Machinery Equipment industry P/E ratio (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 26.18 times, with a valuation premium of 117.57% relative to the CSI 300 [3][23] - The average monthly operating rate for major construction machinery products in May 2025 was 59.5%, down 2.45 percentage points month-on-month [15][31] - The steel composite price index (CSPI) was at 90.31 as of June 6, 2025 [16] Company Announcements - Zhejiang Lino plans to acquire 100% equity of Xuzhou Chemical Machinery Co., Ltd. for 260 million yuan [20] - Laisai Laser has adjusted the expected operational date for its fundraising project to August 1, 2026 [21] Market Review - From June 4 to June 10, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.35%, while the Shenyin Wanguo Machinery Equipment industry increased by 0.73%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.38 percentage points [22] - Notable stock performances included Jiao Da Tie Fa with a 262.09% increase and Kai Le Co., Ltd. with a -40.62% decrease [28][30]

Macro and Strategy Research - In May 2025, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in the previous month, while imports fell by 3.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% previously. The trade surplus reached USD 103.22 billion, up from USD 96.18 billion [4][5] - The slowdown in export growth is attributed to high base effects and global economic downturn concerns, with the global manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for three consecutive months. Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5%, influenced by new tariffs and cautious sentiment among traders [4][5] - Import demand showed weakness, with agricultural imports rising by 17.9% year-on-year, while other major commodities experienced negative growth, indicating a need for policy support to boost domestic demand [5] Fixed Income Research - For the period from June 2 to June 8, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds increased, while transaction amounts decreased. The net financing amount for credit bonds rose, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes seeing increases, while company bonds and short-term financing bonds saw reductions [6][8] - The overall yield on medium and short-term notes and corporate bonds declined, while city investment bonds showed mixed results. The credit spread for medium and short-term notes widened, indicating a complex market environment [8] - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for yields is downward, and investors should focus on timing their investments and monitoring interest rate trends [8] Industry Research - In the steel sector, demand is expected to decline as the off-season deepens, leading to a potential accumulation of steel inventory. The short-term outlook remains weak for steel prices [10][11] - For copper, tight supply at the mine level supports prices, but the lack of demand during the off-season may lead to volatility, particularly influenced by US-China trade negotiations [10][11] - The aluminum market faces uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors, while low domestic inventory provides some price support. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, US interest rate expectations, and geopolitical factors, with a focus on macroeconomic data and trade developments [10][11] - The lithium market is experiencing oversupply, leading to price weakness, while the rare earth sector is positioned for long-term growth due to policy support and emerging demand from robotics and renewable energy [10][11]

Investment Ratings - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [3] - Specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) are rated as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with expectations of declining demand for construction materials and sheet steel, leading to a potential inventory accumulation cycle [1][18] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine level, but the overall demand remains weak during the off-season [1][41] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to domestic low inventory supporting prices, despite some downstream sectors showing signs of weakness [1][50] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and geopolitical factors [2][54] - The lithium market faces oversupply pressures, with significant inventory levels expected to keep prices weak [2][57] Industry Summaries Steel Industry - Demand has weakened, with a notable decrease in terminal procurement volumes, down 14.62% week-on-week and 6.41% year-on-year as of June 6 [19] - Steel production from major varieties was 8.8038 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.05% from the previous week [21] - The total steel inventory increased by 0.26% week-on-week, but decreased by 20.97% year-on-year [27] Copper Industry - The copper market is influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions, with the first meeting of trade negotiations expected to impact copper prices significantly [41] - As of June 6, LME copper prices were $9,800 per ton, reflecting a 1.79% increase from the previous week [48] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is facing pressure from rising costs due to higher alumina prices, while some downstream demand is weakening [50] - As of June 6, LME aluminum prices were $2,400 per ton, down 0.55% from the previous week [51] Gold Industry - Gold prices are supported by various macroeconomic factors, including rising U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions [2][54] - As of June 6, COMEX gold closed at $3,331 per ounce, up 0.54% from the previous week [54] Lithium Industry - The lithium market is characterized by significant inventory pressure, with prices expected to remain weak due to oversupply [57] - As of June 6, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 60,700 yuan per ton, down 1.30% from the previous week [58] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths have shown an increase, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 449,000 yuan per ton as of June 6, up 2.51% [68]