宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 27 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 理解《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方 案》带来的改变 2025-05-15 政治局会议部署加快落地，一揽子金融政 策稳定预期 2025-05-07 浮动管理费产品落地有何启示？ 研究结论 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月 23 日证监会批复首批 26 只新型浮动费率基金，27 日起发售，主要特点有： （1）对标主流宽基指数，多数为偏股混合，且暂时没有行业基金/主题基金；（2） 部分基金涉及港股或港股通，可能源于对香港资本市场关注程度提高；（2）浮动费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3] Core Views - Alibaba's core e-commerce business remains stable and shows positive growth, while its cloud business is entering a high-growth cycle driven by AI demand [7][9] - The company has exceeded expectations in its latest quarterly results, with revenue of 2364.5 billion yuan (+6.6%) and adjusted net profit of 298.5 billion yuan (+22.2%) [7] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on integrating AI with cloud services and its core e-commerce operations, with a projected revenue growth for FY2026-2028 [9][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY4Q25, Alibaba achieved revenue of 2364.5 billion yuan, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of 2379.1 billion yuan, but adjusted net profit of 298.5 billion yuan exceeded expectations [7] - The Taobao and Tmall Group reported revenue of 1013.7 billion yuan (+8.8% YoY) and adjusted EBITA of 417.5 billion yuan (+8.4% YoY) [7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue reached 301.3 billion yuan (+17.7% YoY), driven by public cloud growth and AI-related revenue [7] Business Segments - Taobao Group's GMV growth is expected to align with the overall e-commerce market, with a stable market share [7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group is positioned to benefit from the AI boom, with significant investments in infrastructure [7] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% YoY, while the logistics segment faced a temporary decline due to business adjustments [7] Shareholder Returns - In FY25Q4, Alibaba repurchased 51 million shares for a total of 600 million USD, with a total of 11.97 billion shares repurchased in FY25 [8] - The company declared a regular dividend of 0.13 USD per share and a special cash dividend of 0.12 USD, totaling 4.6 billion USD for the fiscal year [8] Valuation and Forecast - The report projects FY2026-2028 revenues of 10642 billion yuan, 11748 billion yuan, and 12725 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1696 billion yuan, 1849 billion yuan, and 1955 billion yuan respectively [9][11] - The estimated market value of the company is 30954 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 176.86 HKD [9][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For credit bonds, the cost - performance is gradually decreasing. It is recommended to conduct sinking exploration around the 3 - year term, which is suitable as a bottom - position allocation, and adjust the sinking scale and proportion according to the subsequent market trend. Priority should be given to sinking rather than extending the duration [5][10]. - For convertible bonds, the short - term strategy is to defend, and investors can allocate when the price drops. The logic of being optimistic about convertible bonds remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the rating adjustment risk in June [5][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Credit&转债市场观察与思考 1.1 Credit Bonds - From May 19th to May 25th, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 26.16 billion yuan, more than doubling month - on - month. The total repayment amount was 24.3 billion yuan, also increasing significantly, with a net inflow of 1.86 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA + grades were 2.04% and 2.15% respectively, down 2bp and 1bp from the previous week. The frequency of new AA/AA - grade bonds remained low [8]. - The yields of all grades and terms decreased, with a central decline of about 2bp, especially for high - grade and long - term bonds. The risk - free yield curve moved slightly upward at the short end. The spreads of all grades and terms narrowed, with an average narrowing of about 3bp, and the narrowing speed slowed down month - on - month. The term spreads of all grades generally narrowed, and the grade spreads of short - term bonds narrowed while those of long - term bonds slightly widened [9][18]. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in all provinces narrowed, with a central narrowing of about 5bp. The credit spreads of industrial bonds in most industries also narrowed, with a central narrowing of about 2bp, slightly underperforming urban investment bonds. The real estate industry's spreads slightly widened by 3bp [9][23][24]. - The turnover rate in the secondary market decreased by 0.23pct to 1.74%, returning to the median level. High - discount bonds were mostly real - estate enterprise bonds [9][26]. - As the market is further explored, the cost - performance of credit bonds shows a downward trend. It is recommended to conduct sinking exploration around the 3 - year term [5][10]. 1.2 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market indices fluctuated and adjusted. The daily average trading volume decreased slightly. After the tariff disturbance, institutional investors had a profit - taking sentiment. The medium - to long - term outlook is still optimistic, but short - term fluctuations are more likely [5][11]. - The performance of convertible bonds was relatively good last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index only declined by 0.11%, the parity center decreased by 0.4% to 94.2 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 0.8% to 28.5%. The daily average trading volume decreased significantly [5][11]. - In terms of style, large - cap, high - grade, and low - price convertible bonds performed well, while high - price and low - grade convertible bonds were relatively weak. The current sentiment of convertible bonds is weak, and the strategy is mainly for profit - taking and defense. It is advisable to keep the option to increase positions and allocate when the price drops, and pay attention to the rating adjustment risk in June [5][11]. 2 Credit Bond Review 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults or overdue events this week. However, the credit ratings of Shanxi Yuci Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. and related bonds were downgraded. Moody's placed AVIC International Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and related entities on the rating downgrade review list. Multiple companies had negative events such as legal disputes, overdue debts, and regulatory warnings [12][13][15]. 2.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds increased significantly month - on - month, but the maturity scale almost doubled year - on - year, resulting in a small net inflow. The issuance cost of medium - and high - grade bonds decreased slightly, while the frequency of new AA/AA - grade bonds remained low [15][16]. 2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuations of credit bonds decreased across the board, with high - grade and long - term bonds having a larger decline. The yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend, and the spreads narrowed comprehensively, with a central narrowing of about 3bp [18]. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in all provinces narrowed, with a central narrowing of about 5bp. The credit spreads of industrial bonds in most industries also narrowed, with a central narrowing of about 2bp, slightly underperforming urban investment bonds. The real estate industry's spreads slightly widened by 3bp [23][24]. - The turnover rate in the secondary market decreased by 0.23pct to 1.74%, returning to the median level. High - discount bonds were mostly real - estate enterprise bonds [26]. 3 Convertible Bond Review 3.1 Market Overall Performance - Last week, the equity market indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others all declined. The pharmaceutical, comprehensive, and non - ferrous metal industries had the highest gains, while the computer, machinery, and communication industries had the largest losses [11][30]. - The leading convertible bonds mostly underperformed their underlying stocks. The list of popular individual bonds changed. Some convertible bonds such as Yanggu, Jingzhuang, and Xuerong had relatively large increases, and bonds like Zhongqi, Hongqiang, and Xuerong were more actively traded [30]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Premium Rate and Trading Volume - Last week, the performance of convertible bonds was relatively good. The CSI Convertible Bond Index only declined by 0.11%, the parity center decreased by 0.4% to 94.2 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 0.8% to 28.5%. The current valuation level of convertible bonds is relatively reasonable, and it is difficult for the valuation to decline significantly due to the decreasing number of existing bonds and insufficient new supply [32]. - The daily average trading volume decreased significantly [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 32.97 CNY based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][6][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its new energy business, with a focus on a dual-driven strategy. In 2024, the new energy segment achieved revenue of 8.65 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 36.98%, accounting for 23.52% of total revenue [10]. - The PCB business remains a global leader, benefiting from increased industry demand. The company ranks second globally in FPC revenue and third in PCB revenue, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 4.8% for the global PCB industry from 2025 to 2029 [10]. - The company is advancing its globalization strategy by acquiring 100% of the French GMD Group, aiming to expand its presence in the European automotive sector [10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 1.57 CNY, 2.15 CNY, and 2.71 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The previous estimates were adjusted primarily due to changes in revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios [2][11]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 33.65 billion CNY (2023), 36.77 billion CNY (2024), 42.35 billion CNY (2025), 49.27 billion CNY (2026), and 57.13 billion CNY (2027), with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 9%, 15%, 16%, and 16% respectively [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 33.63 CNY [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the AI industry trends and is actively upgrading its production capacity to meet the growing demand for high-end HDI and SLP products [4][9] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 35.14 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.62 billion CNY, a growth of 10.1% [9] - The company is focusing on expanding its market share in the AI edge PCB market and has seen significant growth in its automotive and server PCB segments [9] Financial Forecasts - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.77 CNY, 2.15 CNY, and 2.44 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][13] - Revenue is expected to grow from 32.07 billion CNY in 2023 to 50.54 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.9% [7] - The gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 21.3% in 2023 to 22.4% in 2027 [7] Business Segments - The company’s communication PCB business is expected to generate 24.24 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, a growth of 3.08%, while the consumer electronics and computer PCB business is projected to reach 9.75 billion CNY, growing by 22.3% [9] - The automotive and server PCB segments have shown substantial growth, with a revenue increase of 90.34% in 2024, reaching 1.025 billion CNY [9] Capital Expenditure - The company plans to invest 5 billion CNY in capital expenditures in 2025 to support its production capacity upgrades and global expansion [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The company's mixed AI strategy is driving significant performance growth and diversification [1] - The projected earnings per share for fiscal years 25/26, 26/27, and 27/28 are $0.13, $0.15, and $0.18 respectively, with an upward revision in revenue forecasts [2][10] - The target price is set at HKD 15.97 based on a comparable company PE valuation of 15.44 times for 2025 [2][10] Financial Performance Summary - For FY23A, the company reported revenue of 56,895 million, with a year-on-year decline of 8%. Revenue is expected to grow to 69,108 million in FY24A, reflecting a 21% increase [4] - Operating profit for FY23A was 2,037 million, down 24% year-on-year, but is projected to rise to 2,195 million in FY24A, an 8% increase [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for FY23A was 1,041 million, a decrease of 35%, with a forecasted increase to 1,415 million in FY24A, a 36% growth [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 16.3% for FY26E and FY27E, while net margin is projected to improve from 1.8% in FY23A to 2.5% in FY27E [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 18.6% in FY23 to 26.7% in FY27 [4] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has solidified its global leadership in the smart devices sector, with a 24% market share in personal computers, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase [9] - The infrastructure solutions business has shown strong growth, with a 63% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching 145 billion [9] - The AI server business is also experiencing rapid growth, with a 68% increase in revenue from liquid cooling solutions [9]

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 固本培元，由守转攻可期 ——小家电推荐观点更新 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 一季报家电普遍超预期，后续家电内销有望持续受益政策拉动，结构上 K 线分化，高端 定位和性价比皆有不错表现，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待；4 月白电出口稳健增长，指引新兴市场潜力，后续对美出口扰动也有 望缓解。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议 关注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评 级)；推荐海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口优质 企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；推荐短期受益国 补品类外溢，中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议关注石头 科技(688169，买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)。 风险提示 1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑；5、行业竞争格局超预期恶化。 报告发布日期 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.64 CNY based on a 46x PE for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, primarily due to goodwill impairment related to the "Mikazuki" asset group. However, the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery with a revenue increase of 6.4% year-on-year [10]. - The company's existing business faced challenges, but growth opportunities are emerging as marketing transformations progress and the impact of centralized procurement diminishes [10]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing well, with promising results from ongoing trials and regulatory submissions for key products, indicating strong long-term growth potential [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 920 million CNY, with a projected decline to 825 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 969 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 17.4% growth [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company dropped to 42 million CNY in 2024 from 150 million CNY in 2023, but is expected to rebound to 133 million CNY in 2025, marking a 215.6% increase [4]. - The company's gross margin remains stable at around 89%, while the net margin is projected to improve from 5.1% in 2024 to 13.8% in 2025 [4]. Clinical Pipeline and Growth Drivers - The clinical candidate KC1036 for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is in Phase III trials, showing promising efficacy with an ORR of 26.1% and DCR of 69.6% [10]. - The company is in communication with the CDE regarding the NDA for its product Jin Cao Pian, which has been accepted for review [10]. - KC1086, a selective KAT6 inhibitor, has received IND approval, targeting advanced solid tumors [10].

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 固本培元，由守转攻可期 ——小家电推荐观点更新 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 一季报家电普遍超预期，后续家电内销有望持续受益政策拉动，结构上 K 线分化，高端 定位和性价比皆有不错表现，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待；4 月白电出口稳健增长，指引新兴市场潜力，后续对美出口扰动也有 望缓解。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议 关注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评 级)；推荐海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口优质 企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；推荐短期受益国 补品类外溢，中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议关注石头 科技(688169，买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)。 风险提示 1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑；5、行业竞争格局超预期恶化。 报告发布日期 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.64 CNY based on a 46x PE for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with a revenue of 825 million CNY (down 10.3% YoY) and a net profit of 42 million CNY (down 71.9% YoY). However, the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery, with a revenue of 212 million CNY (up 6.4% YoY) and a net profit of 44 million CNY (up 6.8% YoY) [10]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its marketing strategy, shifting from an alliance model to a digital self-operated model, which has led to improved operational efficiency and reduced sales expenses [10]. - The clinical pipeline is progressing well, with several key products in various stages of development, indicating strong long-term growth potential [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate revenues of 969 million CNY in 2025, 1,141 million CNY in 2026, and 1,289 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 17.4%, 17.8%, and 12.9% respectively [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The operating profit is expected to rebound significantly to 217 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 454.7% YoY, and further increase to 285 million CNY in 2026 and 337 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 0.84 CNY in 2025, 1.14 CNY in 2026, and 1.40 CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 89.7% to 89.8% over the forecast period, while the net margin is projected to improve from 13.8% in 2025 to 17.3% in 2027 [4].