[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [安徽合力（ Table_NewTitle] 600761）：全年销量增速高 于行业，国际化实现新跨越 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：国际贸易风险；行业竞争风险；技术迭代与全球化进程不及预期风险。 | 盈利预测与估值简表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,325.42 | 18,394.61 | 20,254.42 | 21,898.78 | | 同比增长率（%） | 0.99% | 6.17% | 10.11% | 8.12% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,319.63 | 1,383.99 | 1,542.12 | 1,677.84 | | 同比增长率（%） | 0.18% | 4.88% | 11.43% | 8.80% | | EPS 摊薄（元） | 1.4 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250410 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 | 1.1. PPS，性价比突出的"塑料黄金"——化工系列研究（二十四） | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.2. 关税政策引发油价波动，关注自主可控石化链标的——原油及聚酯产业链月 | | | 报（2025 4 月） 年 | 4 | | 1.3. 常熟银行（601128）：负债成本管控强化，资产质量管理审慎——公司简评报 | | | 告 | 4 | | 2. 财经新闻 | 5 | | 3. A 股市场评述 | 7 | | 4. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong control over liability costs and prudent asset quality management by the company [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total asset size reached 366.582 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's efforts to write off non-performing loans, with 1.740 billion yuan written off in the second half of 2024 compared to 968 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.71% for the year, a decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year [2] - The NPL coverage ratio stood at 500.51%, down 27.89 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][7] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.585 billion yuan, 12.609 billion yuan, and 13.857 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.320 billion yuan, 4.782 billion yuan, and 5.268 billion yuan [7][8] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at 0.77% as of Q4 2024, and the report notes a marginal improvement in forward-looking indicators, signaling a slowdown in risk [3][4] - The report emphasizes the company's proactive approach in managing asset quality, particularly in the retail loan segment, where the NPL ratio has shown signs of pressure due to macroeconomic conditions [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to benefit from a broad market space in the small and micro retail sector, leveraging its regional advantages and a combination of technology and support services [7] - The report suggests that the company's high proportion of regular deposits and strong cost control measures will allow it to better navigate the current market environment [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong control over liability costs and prudent asset quality management by the company [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total asset size was 366.582 billion yuan, an increase of 9.61% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at 0.77% as of Q4 2024, unchanged from Q3 2024. Retail and corporate loan NPL ratios were 0.94% and 0.65%, respectively [3] - The report indicates that the company has increased its efforts in non-performing loan recovery and write-offs, with 1.740 billion yuan of non-performing loans written off in the second half of 2024, compared to 0.968 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Individual loan growth has been weak, consistent with industry trends, while deposit growth remains strong. The company’s deposit absorption continued to grow at a faster pace than the M2 growth rate [6] - The report notes that the company has adjusted its lending strategy to be more cautious in the face of rising retail loan risks, particularly in personal loans and credit cards [6] Interest Margin and Profitability - The net interest margin (NIM) has continued to narrow, with a quarterly NIM of 2.59% in Q4 2024, down from 2.67% in Q3 2024. The company has taken steps to manage deposit costs, including lowering deposit rates [6][7] - Investment income has performed well, driven by a bond bull market, with Q4 investment income and fair value changes amounting to 0.407 billion yuan, significantly higher than 0.149 billion yuan in the same period last year [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 11.585 billion yuan in 2025, 12.609 billion yuan in 2026, and 13.857 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.320 billion yuan, 4.782 billion yuan, and 5.268 billion yuan [8] - The report anticipates a stable performance due to a solid provisioning base and the potential for continued growth in the small and micro retail market [7][8]

[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250409 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： [Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月09日 任晓帆S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.清明消费稳增，旺季将至关注投资机会——清明节消费数据点评 ➢ 2.关注国产替代、内需方向——医药生物行业周报（2025/3/31-2025/4/6） ➢ 3.海尔生物（688139）：业绩逐步企稳，202 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is gradually stabilizing, and it is expected to return to a good growth trajectory in 2025 [1][5] - The life sciences segment is experiencing continuous innovation and growth, with new product categories accelerating [5] - The medical innovation segment is recovering, with strong growth in hospital automation and public health services [5] - The company has a clear advantage in its niche areas and is actively expanding new business lines, with new orders growing rapidly [5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 2,864.04 million, with a year-on-year growth of 34.72%. In 2023, revenue decreased to 2,280.90 million, a decline of 20.36%. It is projected to increase to 2,594.89 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 13.62% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 600.79 million in 2022, down 28.90% year-on-year. It is expected to recover to 408.08 million in 2025, with a growth of 11.31% [2] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 47.99%, with a slight decline from previous years [2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.28 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24.95 [2][5] Segment Performance - The life sciences segment generated revenue of 1,094 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.14%, driven by new product launches [5] - The medical innovation segment's revenue was 1,180 million in 2024, a decrease of 4.91%, but showing signs of recovery in automation and digital services [5] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.08 million, 4.83 million, and 5.64 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28, 1.52, and 1.77 yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Bullish" outlook for the industry, indicating a potential increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 20% or more within the next six months [86]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tariff policies on oil prices, leading to significant fluctuations and a focus on self-sufficient petrochemical chain targets [1][5]. - It predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate between $55 and $80 per barrel in 2025, with a potential average price of $70 per barrel [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated refining and chemical companies, suggesting that those with cost advantages will benefit from price recovery in the oil market [80][81]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review and Outlook - Brent crude oil maintained a volatile upward trend, closing at around $74 per barrel at the end of March 2025. The OPEC+ countries are set to gradually ease production cuts starting in April [3]. - The report anticipates a V-shaped recovery in oil prices, with a range of $55 to $80 per barrel for the year [9][10]. Commodity, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - The report notes a decrease in the U.S. dollar index, which fell by 3.16% to 104.2 in March 2025, indicating potential impacts on trade and currency stability [35]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.01% as of April 4, 2025, reflecting market expectations of economic slowdown [28]. Polyester Industry Chain - The report discusses the decline in prices across the polyester supply chain, with the naphtha-ethylene spread at $162 per ton, down $3 from the previous month [53]. - It highlights that the overall profit margin for the PX-PTA-polyester chain is approximately -136 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in profitability [81]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated refining and chemical companies with cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., which are currently undervalued [81]. - It suggests that while short-term commodity prices may be under pressure due to trade tensions, the long-term outlook remains positive due to China's competitive advantages in the petrochemical industry [82].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月08日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -29% -19% -9% 1% 11% 20% 30% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle] PPS，性价比突出的"塑料黄金" ——化工系列研究（二十四） [table_main] 投资要点： 究 行 业 深 度 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 基 础 化 工 [table_invest] [table_product] ➢ 聚苯硫醚PPS综合性能优异，应用领域广泛，2023年消费占比居六类特种工程塑料之首： PPS具有优良的耐高温 ...

原油价格影响因素及预测 | 指标 | 展望 | 油价影响 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年3月布伦特原油维持震荡上行，月底收于74美元/桶左右。OPEC+国家将按计划从4月起逐步放松减产，其中将逐步增加阿联酋30 万桶/日的配额。4月初特朗普关税政策宣布后，油价大幅下行。我们认为2025年国际油价或呈V字型走势，美国因为降通胀及制造业回归 | | | 油价判断 | 需要，以及OPEC+减产放松，油价中短期承压；下半年美联储有望启动新的降息，以及在中国经济恢复带动之下，油价有望从底部反弹， | | | | 全年波动范围在55-80美元/桶。 | | | 全球石油供应 | OPEC+的165万桶/天的额外减产协议将延长至2026年底，而220万桶的自愿减产协议将在4月底结束。 | ++ | | 全球经济（石油需求） | 美国炼厂3月加工量维持在较低水平，商业原油库存有所修复但低于去年同期。我国原油消费有所改善，2025年1-2月，我国规上工业原油加工同比增长 | - | | | 2.1%。根据海关总署，1-2月份，我国进口原油同比下降5%。 | | | 经济周期（利率/美元指数等） ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月08日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -33% -23% -12% -1% 10% 21% 32% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 申万行业指数:社会服务(0746) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.春节档票房亮眼，旅游人次达5.01 亿——春节消费数据点评 [Table_NewTitle 清明消费稳增， ] 旺季将至关注投资机会 ——清明节消费数据点评 [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 简 评 社 会 服 务 [table_invest] ➢ 清明假期旅游人次及收入同比稳定增长，延续改善趋势。根据文旅部数据，从出游人次来 看，清明假期3天国内旅游出游人数1.26亿人次，同比增长6.3%。从旅游收入看，国内旅 游收入575.49亿元，同比增长6.7%。从 ...