Employment Data - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 jobs and slightly down from the revised previous value of 147,000 jobs[1][13][15] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's rate[1][13][15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and matching the previous value[1][13][15] Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 48,000 jobs, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing to the stability of the overall employment data[2][24] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 5,000, a decline from the previous increase of 14,000, indicating pressure from tariff disruptions[3][23] - Financial activities added 13,000 jobs, up from 3,000 previously, showing a recovery in this sector[3][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable declines in youth employment willingness[4][29] - The U3 unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 71,000 in the number of unemployed individuals[4][35] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 7.8%[4][35] Federal Reserve Outlook - The robust non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with a near 100% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in June 2025[5][19] - Market expectations indicate two rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September, having a probability of approximately 50%[5][19][22]

Market Performance - The weighted REITs index rose to 142.42 with a weekly return of 1.74%[1] - REITs outperformed A-shares (1.47%), US stocks (0.97%), and pure bonds (0.08%), but lagged behind convertible bonds (2.39%), gold (1.93%), and crude oil (3.95%) in returns[1][15] - Among asset types, municipal facility REITs had the highest increase, with top three returns from municipal facilities (3.66%), transportation infrastructure (3.37%), and water conservancy facilities (2.12%)[20] Trading Volume and Turnover - Total trading volume for public REITs was 2.09 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.67%[2][26] - The top three asset types by trading volume were transportation infrastructure (718 million yuan), park infrastructure (490 million yuan), and warehousing logistics (218 million yuan)[26] - The highest turnover rates were seen in water conservancy (1.02%), park infrastructure (0.77%), and ecological environment (0.75%) REITs[26] Net Inflows and Block Trades - Total net inflow for the week was 9.05 million yuan, indicating increased market trading enthusiasm[2][32] - The top three asset types for net inflows were transportation infrastructure (10.64 million yuan), park infrastructure (5.91 million yuan), and water conservancy (3.05 million yuan)[32] - Total block trade volume reached 123.93 million yuan, with the highest single-day trade on June 4 at 38.25 million yuan[3][33]

Employment Data - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 jobs and slightly down from the revised previous value of 147,000 jobs[1][15] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's rate[1][15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and matching the previous value after revision[1][15] Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 48,000 jobs in May, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing to the overall employment stability[2][24] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 5,000, contrasting with a previous increase of 14,000, indicating pressure from tariff disruptions[3][23] - Financial activities added 13,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in the previous month, showing a recovery in this sector[3][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable declines in youth employment willingness[4][29] - The U3 unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 71,000 in the number of unemployed individuals[4][35] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 7.8%[4][35] Federal Reserve Outlook - The robust non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with a near 100% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in June 2025[5][19] - Market expectations indicate two potential rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September, having a probability of approximately 50%[5][19]

2025 年 6 月 7 日 行业研究 6 月流动性展望 ——流动性观察第 110 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 3 月金融数据前瞻及 4 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 108 期 2 月金融数据前瞻及 3 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 107 期 1 月金融数据前瞻及 2 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 106 期 12 月金融数据前瞻及 1 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 105 期 11 月金融数据前瞻及 12 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 104 期 10 月金融数据前瞻及 11 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 103 期 9 月金融数据前瞻及 10 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 102 期 8 月金融数据前瞻及 9 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 101 期 要点 相关研报 4 月金融数据前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guoke Microelectronics (300672.SZ) with a current price of 81.06 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Guoke Microelectronics is acquiring a 94.366% stake in Zhongxin Ningbo to integrate the entire industry chain and break the overseas monopoly in the filter market [5][6]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance Guoke's product and business diversity, focusing on AI SoC and expanding into automotive and wireless sectors [10][14]. - The company is projected to benefit from the growth of AI SoC, with net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being adjusted upwards by 17% and 48% compared to previous estimates [13][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoke Microelectronics focuses on chip design and development, providing solutions in AI, multimedia, automotive electronics, IoT, and data storage [10]. - The acquisition of Zhongxin Ningbo will allow Guoke to build capabilities in specialized wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging, transitioning to a full industry chain model [10][12]. Market Position - Zhongxin Ningbo is a leading domestic semiconductor foundry specializing in RF front-end, MEMS, and high-voltage analog devices, aiming to break the overseas monopoly in high-end filter technology [6][7]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major domestic mobile communication terminal enterprises, ensuring stable revenue streams [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for Guoke is expected to decline in 2024 but net profit is projected to grow, with estimates for 2025-2027 being 137 million, 204 million, and 257 million CNY respectively [15][16]. - The report outlines a significant drop in revenue growth rate for 2024 at -53.26%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue, net profit, and key ratios such as P/E and P/B, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability and efficiency over the forecast period [15][18].

——可转债周报（2025 年 6 月 3 日至 2025 年 6 月 6 日） 要点 1、市场行情 本周（2025 年 6 月 3 日至 6 月 6 日，共 4 个交易日）转债市场继续回暖；本周 中证转债指数涨跌幅为+1.1%（上一交易周为+0.2%），本周中证全指变动为 +1.5%。2025 年开年以来，中证转债涨跌幅为+4.7%，中证全指数涨跌幅为 +1.8%，转债市场表现好于权益市场。 2025 年 6 月 6 日 总量研究 持续回暖 分评级来看，高评级券（评级为 AA+及以上）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、低评 级券（评级为 AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+0.93%、+1.34%、+1.82%，低 评级券本周涨幅最大。分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于 50 亿元）、 中规模转债（余额在 5 至 50 亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于 5 亿元）本周 涨跌幅分别为+0.68%、+1.30%和+1.96%，小规模转债涨幅最大。分平价来看， 超高平价券（转股价值大于 130 元）、高平价券（转股价值在 110 至 130 元之 间）、中平价券（转股价值在 90 至 110 元之间）、低平价券（转股价值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guoke Microelectronics (300672.SZ) with a current price of 81.06 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Guoke Microelectronics is acquiring a 94.366% stake in Zhongxin Ningbo, a leading domestic semiconductor foundry, to break the overseas monopoly in the high-end filter market [5][6]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in chip design and manufacturing, particularly in high-end filters, which are crucial for communication technologies [10][12]. - The company is focusing on an "ALL IN AI" strategy, aiming to develop AI SoCs and expand into automotive and wireless sectors, which aligns with industry trends [10][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoke Microelectronics specializes in chip design and is a leading provider of solutions in AI, multimedia, automotive electronics, IoT, and data storage [10]. - The acquisition of Zhongxin Ningbo will allow Guoke to integrate the entire supply chain from chip design to wafer processing, enhancing its competitive edge [12]. Market Position - Zhongxin Ningbo is positioned to disrupt the high-end filter market, currently dominated by foreign companies like Murata and Broadcom, which hold significant market shares [6][7]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major domestic mobile communication terminal manufacturers, ensuring stable revenue streams [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for Guoke Microelectronics is projected to decline in 2024 but is expected to recover with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) driven by AI SoC growth [13]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 137 million, 204 million, and 257 million CNY respectively, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [13][15]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates and profit margins, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-margin AI products [15][18]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 183 in 2023 to 68 by 2027, suggesting improved valuation as the business scales [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, specifically highlighting the potential in the pesticide sector due to recent price increases and supply constraints [5]. Core Insights - The pesticide industry in China is undergoing structural optimization driven by stringent environmental regulations, leading to a gradual increase in the market share of high-efficiency, low-risk pesticides while phasing out older, more toxic products [1][2]. - The recent explosion at Youdao Chemical has impacted the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which is expected to drive up prices due to supply constraints [2][3]. - The price index for pesticide raw materials has reached a low point, with a slight increase noted, indicating a potential turning point for channel inventory [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Pesticide Industry Overview - China's pesticide product structure is being optimized, with a focus on reducing the use of high-risk products and increasing the market share of new, efficient pesticides [1]. - The pesticide raw material price index as of May 30, 2025, is 73.33 points, reflecting a 0.44 point increase since the beginning of the year [1]. 2. Supply Chain Impact - The explosion at Youdao Chemical on May 27, 2025, has disrupted the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which is the largest production facility globally with a capacity of 11,000 tons [2]. - The incident is expected to lead to stricter approvals and regulations for high-risk chemical reactions, benefiting leading chemical companies with better safety protocols and production technologies [2]. 3. Price Adjustments - ST Hongtai has raised the price of chlorantraniliprole to 300,000 yuan per ton due to increased costs from upstream raw material shortages [3]. - As of May 30, 2025, the market price for chlorantraniliprole was reported at 230,000 yuan per ton, marking a 2.22% increase from the previous day [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as those benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials [4]. - Specific companies to watch include China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and Wanhu Chemical, among others [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [6]. Core Views - The company plans to invest 1.402 billion yuan to build a high-performance carbon fiber production project with an annual capacity of 2,000 tons, expected to generate annual sales revenue of 1.588 billion yuan and a net profit of 773.74 million yuan upon reaching full capacity [1]. - The demand for carbon fiber is on the rise, particularly in the aerospace sector, with a projected global demand of 156,100 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.7% [3]. - The company has achieved advanced performance levels in its aerospace-grade carbon fiber products, enabling domestic substitution and meeting national strategic needs [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Project - The company is set to invest 1.402 billion yuan in a project to produce high-performance carbon fiber, with a construction period of three years and a full production rate expected by the seventh year [1]. Market Demand - The aerospace and military sectors are expected to see a 20% increase in carbon fiber demand in 2024, with the total demand in China reaching 84,000 tons, a 21.7% increase year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 483 million yuan, 609 million yuan, and 705 million yuan respectively, reflecting significant growth [3][5]. - The report forecasts a recovery in downstream demand, leading to an upward revision of profit estimates for 2025-2026 [3]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a core supplier of high-end carbon fiber for aerospace applications, with a strong focus on expanding production capacity to meet growing market needs [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company plans to invest 1.402 billion yuan to build a high-performance carbon fiber production project, with an annual capacity of 2,000 tons, expected to achieve full production in the seventh year [1]. - The demand for carbon fiber is continuously improving, particularly in the aerospace sector, which is projected to grow significantly [3]. - The company has achieved advanced performance levels in its aerospace-grade carbon fiber products, enabling domestic substitution and meeting national strategic needs [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Project - The company is investing in a high-performance carbon fiber project with a total investment of 1.402 billion yuan, aiming for an annual sales revenue of 1.588 billion yuan and a net profit of 773.74 million yuan upon reaching full capacity [1]. Market Demand - Global carbon fiber demand is expected to reach 156,100 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with the aerospace and military sectors accounting for 26,400 tons, a 20% increase [3]. - In China, the total carbon fiber demand is projected to be 84,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a 21.7% growth [3]. Financial Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 483 million yuan, 609 million yuan, and 705 million yuan, respectively, with significant upward adjustments of 17.5% and 30.3% for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates and profit margins, indicating a recovery in demand and profitability [5][11]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a core supplier of high-end carbon fiber for aerospace applications, with a strong focus on expanding production capacity to meet growing market needs [2][3].