2025 年 6 月 20 日 总量研究 可转债信用风险观察 ——基于 24 年年报和 25 年一季报的研究 要点 1、可转债市场发展概况 投资性现金流：24 年发行人购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现 金规模整体同比有所下降，多数行业资本支出放缓。24 年发行人整体投资性现 金流净流出 4871.51 亿元，较 2023 年净流出规模有所缩减。 筹资性现金流：24 年发行人整体筹资性现金流净流入规模同比缩减。24 年净流 入 232.19 亿元，同比降低 75.56%。电力设备、电子和基础化工等行业筹资性 现金流净流入规模较大，对外部融资的依赖较强。钢铁、交通运输、农林牧渔行 业筹资性现金流净流出规模较大。 债务负担和偿债能力：杠杆率方面，24 年末发行人整体资产负债率 60.93%，较 23 年末增长 1.29 个百分点。债务规模方面，24 年末可转债发行人全部债务规 模达 25,891.71 亿元，较 23 年末增长 9.54%；25Q1 末全部债务 27,439.59 亿 元。债务结构方面，24 年末发行人短期债务占比较 23 年末有所下降。偿债能力 方面，24 年末发行人整体偿债能力有所弱 ...

Group 1: Internet Media Industry - The report highlights that the demand for AI-driven inference is propelling the growth of network security, with traditional leaders like CrowdStrike enhancing their competitive edge through continuous technological iterations [1] - Cloud-native and AI-native architectures of companies like Cloudflare, Rubrik, and Zscaler are leading to accelerated growth rates, suggesting a focus on vendors with AI and cloud security product capabilities to capture the incremental demand in network security during digital transformation [1] - Recommendations include a buy rating for CrowdStrike and a watch on Rubrik, Cloudflare, and Zscaler [1] Group 2: Low Earth Orbit Satellite Industry - The report indicates that China's commercial space industry is gaining momentum, with significant satellite launch plans like "StarNet" and "Qianfan" underway, which are expected to accelerate the development of low Earth orbit satellites [2] - Cost reduction in commercial space operations is critical, with perovskite technology identified as a potential breakthrough for lowering costs in satellite energy systems [2] - Shanghai Port Bay is noted for its proactive positioning in the satellite sector and perovskite-related businesses, having successfully supported the launch of 15 satellites and maintaining over 40 satellite power systems and solar sails in stable operation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The North American market is experiencing strong demand for AI inference, leading to significant stock performance among cybersecurity companies closely associated with AI and cloud security. From April 8, 2025, to June 16, 2025, the Nasdaq index rose by 26.3%, with stock price increases for Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Rubrik, and Cloudflare reaching 30.0%, 47.8%, 69.4%, 73.5%, and 82.3% respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - CrowdStrike is leveraging platformization and AI-native capabilities, reporting a transaction value exceeding $3.2 billion in its Flex model, with next-generation SIEM ARR growth exceeding 100%. The AI-native XDR platform is projected to cover a market size of $116 billion [3]. - Palo Alto Networks has seen significant results from its AI security initiatives, with 60% of customers achieving a mean time to resolution (MTTR) of under 10 minutes, and an ARR growth of over 200% for its XSIAM platform. The Prisma AIRS platform targets a $15 billion AI security market [3]. - Cloudflare is successfully transitioning from a CDN to an AI security cloud service provider, with a 54% revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region and a 27% increase in paid customers [4]. - Rubrik focuses on a rapid recovery engine, significantly reducing recovery time from weeks to hours, with a 60% ARR growth and a subscription ARR of $1.18 billion, up 38% year-over-year [4]. - Zscaler is advancing AI-driven network security, with significant ARR growth in its Zero Trust and data security initiatives, and a 70% year-over-year increase in ZDX Advanced bookings [5]. Investment Recommendations - The deep integration of AI and cloud security is reshaping the global cybersecurity landscape. Traditional leaders like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are enhancing their competitive advantages through continuous technological iterations, while companies like Cloudflare, Rubrik, and Zscaler are achieving rapid growth through cloud-native and AI-native architectures. The report recommends focusing on vendors with AI and cloud security product capabilities to capture the increasing demand in the cybersecurity sector during digital transformation [6]. Recommended stocks include CrowdStrike, with a watch on Rubrik, Cloudflare, and Zscaler [6].

2025 年 6 月 19 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】耐用品消费转弱，美国消费显著降温——2025 年 5 月美国零售数据点评 对等关税生效前，3 月美国消费者抢先大量采购，透支未来的消费需求，导致 5 月零 售环比增速降至-0.9%。分项看，前期抢购较多的汽车、建材、家电等耐用品消费环 比增速降幅更为明显，也指向关税扰动下，美国家庭选择减少非必需品的支出。从降 息节奏看，5 月零售数据超预期转弱，增加了美联储降息紧迫性，但短期内美国的通 胀压力依然制约美联储货币政策空间，6 月美联储降息概率仍有限。 行业研究 【石化】IEA 下调原油需求预期，伊以、俄乌地缘政治冲突加剧——石化化工行业动 态跟踪第 81 期(增持) IEA 预计 2025 年全球原油需求增长 72 万桶/日，2026 年增长 74 万桶/日，25、26 年预测值较上月下调 2 万桶/日。欧盟委员会 17 日提出一项立法提案，欧盟将在 2027 年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油。油价有望在地缘政治前景的不确定性影 响下震荡上行。风险分析：地缘政治风险，上游资本开支增速不及预期，原油和天然 气价格大幅波动。 公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered its oil demand forecast, expecting OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in 2025. The global oil demand is projected to grow by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 740,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a downward revision of 20,000 barrels per day for both years due to weak demand in the US and China [1] - The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027, which is expected to sustain oil prices due to geopolitical risk premiums stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict poses a risk of escalation, which could further drive oil prices upward. Iran's current oil production is approximately 4.8 million barrels per day, with exports averaging 1.7 million barrels per day this year [3] Summary by Sections Oil Demand and Supply Forecast - IEA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 104.9 million barrels per day, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels per day and OPEC+ contributing 400,000 barrels per day [1] Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation, are significant factors influencing oil prices. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 25% of global oil transport, could have a major impact on the oil market [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major Chinese oil companies ("Three Barrel Oil") and their associated oil service firms, as well as leading oil transportation companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [3][5][13]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant increase in new orders, with Q1 2025 new orders reaching 585 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 89.38%. This growth is driven by the increasing domestic demand for laser technology across various industries [1]. - Revenue for Q1 2025 was reported at 343 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.07%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, up 37.11% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the optical module testing sector, with a strong order reserve and rapid revenue growth from mobile camera testing equipment [1][2]. - In the renewable energy sector, the company successfully delivered large quantities of 500W MOPA pulsed laser products, enhancing processing efficiency compared to previous models [2]. - The passive components industry is showing signs of recovery, and the company is launching new products to meet the growing demand [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 1.762 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 177 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 33.43% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.86 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36 [4][12]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 8.15% by 2025, indicating improved profitability [11].

2025 年 6 月 18 日 总量研究 耐用品消费转弱，美国消费显著降温 ——2025 年 5 月美国零售数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 联系人：周欣平 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 关税扰动显现，美国消费数据转弱—— 2025 年 4 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-05-16） 关税扰动导致美国消费节奏前置——2025 年 3 月美国零售数据点评（2025-04-17） 如何理解 2 月美国低于预期的消费数据？ — — 2025 年 2 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-03-18） 美国消费如期转弱，年内降息必要性增加 — — 2025 年 1 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-02-15） 美国消费转弱，年内仍存 2-3 次降息空间 — —2024 年 12 月 美 国零 售数据 点 评 （2025-01-17） 如何理解 11 月偏弱的美国核心消费数 据？——2024 年 11 月美国零售数据点 ...

2025 年 6 月 18 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【石化】OPEC+5 月增产量低于计划值，地缘政治冲突驱动油价震荡上行——石油化 工行业动态跟踪(增持) 2025 年 5 月，OPEC+累计增产 18 万桶/日，其中自愿减产 8 国累计增产 15.4 万桶/ 日，沙特增产 17.7 万桶/日，OPEC+自愿减产 8 国的 5 月增产量低于此前决定的 41 万桶/日增量。截至 6 月 17 日，伊朗和以色列均打击了对方的能源设施，油价有望在 地缘政治前景的不确定性影响下震荡上行。风险分析：地缘政治风险，上游资本开支 增速不及预期，原油和天然气价格大幅波动。 公司研究 【通信】受益 AI 浪潮，成长空间广阔——澜起科技（688008.SH）跟踪报告之十三(买 入) 随着 DDR5 的持续渗透，以及公司高速互连芯片持续成长，有望带动公司净利润持续 快速增长。我们上调公司 2025-2026 年归母净利润预测为 22.24/30.75 亿元，较前次 上调幅度为 15%/15%，新增公司 2027 年归母净利润预测为 38.62 亿元，当前股价 对应 PE 41/30/24X。我们看好公司的长 ...

2025 年 6 月 17 日 行业研究 OPEC+5 月增产量低于计划值，地缘政治冲突驱动油价震荡上行 ——石油化工行业动态跟踪 要点 OPEC 维持原油供需预期，OPEC+5 月增产 18 万桶/日。OPEC 发布 6 月月报， 需求端，OPEC 维持原油需求增长预测，预计 25 年全球原油需求增长 130 万桶 /日。OPEC 预计 2025 年世界石油需求将继续受到航空需求的强劲推动，预计 25 年航空煤油需求增长 45 万桶/日，汽油需求增长 38 万桶/日，液化气和石脑 油需求增长 50 万桶/日。供给端，OPEC 维持非 OPEC+供给增长预期，预计 25 年非 OPEC+国家原油供给增长 81 万桶/日。2025 年 5 月，OPEC+累计增产 18 万桶/日，其中自愿减产 8 国累计增产 15.4 万桶/日，沙特增产 17.7 万桶/日， 而此前超额生产的哈萨克斯坦、伊拉克产量下降。OPEC+自愿减产 8 国的 5 月 增产量低于此前决定的 41 万桶/日增量，IEA 预计 OPEC+今年的产量将增加 31 万桶/日，2026 年将增加 15 万桶/日，建议密切关注 OPEC+增产执行进度。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is benefiting from the ongoing AI wave, with significant growth potential as it consolidates its leading position in the DDR5 memory interface chip market [1]. - The company's revenue and profit are experiencing substantial growth, with a projected revenue of 3.639 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.20%, and a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, reflecting a 213.10% increase [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in the memory interface chip industry and is actively involved in the development of international standards for DDR5 RCD chips, maintaining its competitive edge as DDR5 technology continues to evolve [1]. Product Development - The company has introduced several high-performance interconnect chips, including PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, CKD, and MXC, which cater to the high bandwidth requirements of AI and high-performance computing applications [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.639 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, with significant growth rates projected for the following years [3][4]. - The company’s high-performance chips generated a sales revenue of 135 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 155% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 2.224 billion yuan and 3.075 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 3.862 billion yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 41 for 2025, 30 for 2026, and 24 for 2027, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3].