Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Accumulate" [6] Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction and demand recovery suggest that a temporary bottom in coal prices may have been reached [1] - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao port remains stable, while overseas oil and gas prices have increased [2] - The average daily pig iron output has risen, while the outflow from the Three Gorges has decreased [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - In May, national thermal power generation was 461.5 billion kWh, up 1.69% year-on-year, ending a trend of lower output compared to the previous year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4225 million tons, up 0.3% week-on-week and 0.9% year-on-year [3] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has been declining and is now significantly lower than the same period last year [1] Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 609 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [2] - The average price of mixed thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 470 CNY/ton, also unchanged week-on-week [2] - The FOB price of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia, was 66 USD/ton, down 0.68% week-on-week [2] Inventory Tracking - As of June 20, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.78 million tons, down 6.47% week-on-week and 2.20% year-on-year [4] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 6.6565 million tons, down 0.58% week-on-week [4] - The average operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 61.3%, up 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [3] Investment Recommendations - With the summer peak electricity demand approaching, and in the context of supply contraction and seasonal demand increase, it is recommended to invest in companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to drive oil prices upward, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $75.78 and $74.04 per barrel respectively, reflecting increases of 0.8% and 1.2% [1][10][11] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have both revised down their oil demand forecasts for 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the U.S. and China [2][14] - The report emphasizes the strategic value of oil and gas, highlighting that the "Three Barrel Oil" companies are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and focus on increasing reserves and production [3][19] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The report discusses the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and its implications for oil prices, predicting continued upward pressure on prices due to geopolitical risks [1][11] - The conflict has already led to significant disruptions, with oil transportation risks increasing, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for a substantial portion of global oil trade [3][25] Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts - IEA forecasts a global oil demand increase of 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a downward revision of 20,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [2][14] - EIA's forecast for 2025 indicates an increase of 790,000 barrels per day, also revised down by 180,000 barrels per day [2][14] - OPEC+ has underperformed in its production increase plans, with actual increases falling short of targets [2][16] Strategic Developments in the Oil Sector - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies are expected to focus on high capital expenditures and strategic developments to counter external uncertainties, with production plans showing growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively [3][19][20] - The report suggests that the geopolitical situation enhances the valuation of oil transportation, with freight rates significantly increasing due to the conflict [3][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major players in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as related oil service companies and chemical industry leaders [4][19]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The pet economy continues to show high growth, with over 400 pet brands achieving sales growth of over 100% during the "618" shopping festival. The number of pet transaction users increased by 32%, and new pet owners grew by 39% [1] - The pig price has risen, with the average price for live pigs at 14.22 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.43%. The average price for piglets is 31.85 yuan/kg, down 3.16% week-on-week [2][24] - The prices of corn, soybean meal, and wheat have increased, with corn averaging 2417.06 yuan/ton (up 0.47%), soybean meal at 3015.14 yuan/ton (up 1.59%), and wheat at 2441.67 yuan/ton (up 0.46%) [3][47] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - The pet food sector is experiencing growth and price increases, with domestic brands gaining recognition and leading companies continuing to grow. Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [4][74] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is entering a destocking phase, with the industry capacity cycle having bottomed out. The recent policy-driven destocking is expected to realign the supply-demand relationship, leading to a long-term profit uptrend post-destocking. Recommended companies include Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs [4][70] Feed and Planting Chain - The planting chain is showing positive fundamentals with an upward trend in grain prices. Recommended companies include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, Hainan Rubber, Qiule Seed Industry, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seed Industry [4][70] Poultry Sector - The white feather broiler price is 7.12 yuan/kg, down 2.06% week-on-week, while chick prices have dropped significantly due to weak demand and high temperatures affecting restocking [34][34]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of leading market benchmark returns by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The 2025 "618" promotional event saw a stable conclusion with comprehensive e-commerce platforms achieving a sales increase of 15.2% year-on-year, totaling 855.6 billion yuan, while instant retail sales grew by 18.7% to 29.6 billion yuan [1]. - The performance of brands on platforms like Tmall was strong, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales during the event, a 24% increase from the previous year [2]. - JD.com reported over 100% growth in overall user orders during the "618" event, with daily orders for its food delivery service surpassing 25 million [3]. - Pinduoduo leveraged multiple promotional activities, resulting in significant sales increases across various categories, with some participating merchants seeing sales double [4]. - Instant retail gained traction during the event, with platforms like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com incorporating instant retail into their promotional strategies, indicating a positive trend for online penetration across categories [5]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - Comprehensive e-commerce platforms recorded a total sales of 855.6 billion yuan during the "618" event, marking a 15.2% increase year-on-year [1]. - Instant retail sales reached 29.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.7% growth [1]. - Community group buying sales fell by 9.1% to 12.6 billion yuan [1]. Brand and Consumer Insights - Tmall saw 453 brands surpassing 100 million yuan in sales, with notable brands like Apple and Xiaomi leading the performance [2]. - The number of high-net-worth 88VIP members on Tmall exceeded 50 million, with brand membership increasing by 15% [2]. JD.com Highlights - JD.com reported over 22 billion total orders during the "618" event, with significant growth in 3C and home appliance categories [3]. - The launch of the first fully live-streamed food mall in Harbin marked a new milestone for JD's offline operations [3]. Pinduoduo Strategies - Pinduoduo's promotional strategies, including "100 billion subsidies," led to substantial sales growth, particularly in agricultural products [4]. - The "government subsidy" section on Pinduoduo saw a 177% increase in sales for subsidized products [4]. Instant Retail Trends - Instant retail's inclusion in the "618" event by major platforms indicates a growing trend, with Meituan reporting over 100 million users placing orders [5]. - The focus on consumer experience and ecosystem building is expected to foster healthy development in the e-commerce sector [5].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national general public budget revenue was -0.3%, slightly improved from -0.4% in the previous period[1] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was +4.2%, down from +4.6% in the previous period[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -6.9%, compared to -6.7% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by +16.0%, down from +17.7% in the previous period[1] Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal expenditure remains strong, particularly in "three guarantees" spending, but infrastructure spending has significantly declined, indicating a need to monitor local investment momentum and willingness[2] - Non-tax revenue continues to decline, suggesting an improvement in local funding conditions, but tax revenue growth remains low, necessitating price performance enhancement alongside strengthened tax collection[2] - The land market improvement is not sustained, indicating ongoing downward inertia in the real estate market, suggesting that proactive fiscal policies need to be introduced at the right time[2] Tax Revenue Analysis - In May, general public budget revenue grew by 0.13% year-on-year, with central budget revenue increasing by 0.4% and local budget revenue declining by -0.11%[3] - Non-tax revenue saw a year-on-year decline of -2.33%, marking the first negative growth since 2024, while tax revenue grew by 0.56%[3] - The structure of tax revenue showed that domestic consumption tax grew by 0.41%, while individual income tax increased by 12.3%, reflecting strong performance due to enhanced tax collection measures[4] Government Fund Performance - In May, government fund budget revenue declined by -8.1%, reversing the previous month's growth of +8.1%, with land use rights revenue dropping by -14.6%[24] - Government fund budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year growth of +8.8%, down from +44.7% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures also declining[24] - Cumulative progress for government fund budget revenue from January to May was 24.8%, below the five-year average of 26.0%[24]

- The report tracks quantitative sentiment indicators, including volume timing signals, which show cautious views across major broad-based indices as of June 20, 2025[22][23] - The "HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio" sentiment indicator is calculated as the proportion of HS300 constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator captures market sentiment and is useful for identifying market bottoms and overheated conditions[23][24] - The "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" applies two smoothing windows (N1=50, N2=35) to the upward stock count ratio. When the short-term smoothed line exceeds the long-term smoothed line, it signals a bullish market sentiment. Conversely, when the short-term line falls below the long-term line, it indicates neutral sentiment[27][28][30] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess HS300 trends. When the number of closing prices above the moving averages exceeds five, it signals a bullish sentiment[30][32][33] - Cross-sectional volatility analysis shows that HS300 and CSI500 constituent stocks experienced declining volatility, indicating a weaker short-term alpha environment. CSI1000 stocks showed increased volatility, suggesting improved alpha conditions[36][39] - Time-series volatility analysis reveals declining volatility across HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices, indicating a deteriorating alpha environment. Over the past quarter, HS300 time-series volatility was relatively favorable, while CSI500 and CSI1000 were average[39][42]

Group 1: Factor Performance Tracking - The market reversal effect is dominant, with the beta factor and profitability factor yielding positive returns of 0.32% and 0.26% respectively, while the residual volatility factor and momentum factor showed significant negative returns of -0.62% and -0.32% [20][22] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors include total asset growth rate (0.68%), momentum-adjusted small orders (0.56%), and TTM P/E ratio inverse (0.53%), while the worst-performing factors are quarterly revenue growth rate (-1.30%), total asset gross margin TTM (-1.33%), and quarterly total asset gross margin (-1.70%) [12][13] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the top factors are quarterly operating profit growth rate (1.20%), momentum spring factor (1.13%), and quarterly net profit growth rate (1.04%), with the weakest factors being 5-day moving average of trading volume (-0.55%), quarterly ROA (-0.69%), and gross margin TTM (-0.74%) [14][15] Group 2: Industry Factor Performance - The net asset growth rate factor shows significant positive returns in the oil and petrochemical industry, while the net profit growth rate factor performs well in both the oil and petrochemical and defense industries [23] - The BP factor performs well in the banking industry, and the EP factor shows strong performance in the communication sector [23] - The liquidity factor shows positive returns in the oil and petrochemical industry, while the residual volatility factor performs well in the comprehensive industry [23] Group 3: Combination Tracking - The PB-ROE-50 combination experienced excess return drawdowns across various stock pools, with excess returns of -0.20% in the CSI 500 stock pool, -0.27% in the CSI 800 stock pool, and -0.41% in the overall market stock pool [25] - The public fund research stock selection strategy achieved positive excess returns, outperforming the CSI 800 by 2.11%, while the private fund research tracking strategy underperformed by -0.31% [3] - The block trading combination achieved excess returns of 0.10% relative to the CSI All Index, and the targeted issuance combination gained excess returns of 0.77% compared to the CSI All Index [3]

2025 年 6 月 21 日 总量研究 商业银行大幅增持国债 ——2025 年 5 月份债券托管量数据点评 要点 1、 债券托管总量及结构 债券托管总量环比增幅有所走阔。截至 2025 年 5 月末，中债登和上清所的债券 托管量合计为 169.99 万亿元，环比净增加 2.16 万亿元，较 4 月末环比多增 0.56 万亿元。 信用债托管量总量小幅减少，其余债券托管总量均环比净增。本月（2025 年 5 月，下同）利率债托管量 115.73 万亿元，在银行间债券市场托管量中占比 68.08%，环比净增加 1.70 万亿元；信用债托管量 18.35 万亿元，占比 10.79%， 环比小幅减少 52.54 亿元；金融债券（非政策性）托管量 12.17 万亿元，占比 7.16%，环比净增加 0.22 万亿元，同业存单托管量 21.83 万亿元，占比 12.84%， 环比净增加 0.27 万亿元。 2、债券持有者结构及变动 分机构托管量环比变化： 国债托管量本月环比续增，商业银行持续增持，政策性银行持续减持； 地方债托管量本月环比续增，商业银行持续增持，政策性银行持续减持； 政金债托管量本月转变为增持，商业银行为主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the secondary - market prices of listed public REITs in China showed an overall upward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 145 and a weekly return of 1.06%. Compared with other mainstream asset classes, REITs performed well. The price trends of different types of REITs varied, and there were also differences in trading volume, turnover rate, and capital inflow. No new REITs were listed this week, but the status of some REITs' initial projects was updated [1][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trend - **At the large - scale asset level**: The secondary - market prices of listed public REITs in China showed an upward trend. The REITs return rate was 1.06%, ranking second among mainstream asset classes after crude oil. The return rates of mainstream asset classes from high to low were: crude oil > REITs > US stocks > pure bonds > A - shares > convertible bonds > gold [11][15]. - **At the underlying asset level**: This week, the secondary - market prices of equity - based REITs showed an upward trend with a return of 2.15%, while those of concession - based REITs declined slightly with a return of - 0.43%. Among different underlying asset types, municipal facility - based REITs had the largest increase with a return of 8.1%, and transportation infrastructure - based REITs had the largest decline with a decline of 1.09% [17][20]. - **At the single - REIT level**: This week, public REITs showed mixed performance, with 49 rising and 17 falling. The top three in terms of increase were Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, Huaxia Fund Huarun Youchao REIT, and CICC Xiamen Anju REIT, with increases of 8.1%, 7.77%, and 7.72% respectively. The top three in terms of decline were Huaan Bailian Consumption REIT, Zheshang HuHangYong REIT, and Ping An Ningbo Jiaotou REIT, with declines of 4.59%, 3.53%, and 2% respectively [24]. 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying asset level**: The trading volume of public REITs this week was 2.84 billion yuan, and the municipal facility - based REITs led in the average daily turnover rate. The top three in terms of trading volume were transportation infrastructure - based, affordable rental housing - based, and park infrastructure - based REITs, with trading volumes of 744 million, 465 million, and 449 million yuan respectively. The top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were municipal facility - based, affordable rental housing - based, and ecological environmental protection - based REITs, with rates of 1.24%, 0.96%, and 0.80% respectively [26]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. The top three in terms of trading volume were Huaan Bailian Consumption REIT, Huaxia Hefei High - tech REIT, and Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, with trading volumes of 260 million, 260 million, and 240 million shares respectively. The top three in terms of trading amount were CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT, and Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT, with trading amounts of 144 million, 138 million, and 127 million yuan respectively. The top three in terms of turnover rate were Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT, Huaan Bailian Consumption REIT, and Huaxia Shenzhen International REIT, with rates of 12.28%, 9.75%, and 8.84% respectively [29]. 3.1.3 Main Force Net Inflow and Block Trading Situation - **Main force net inflow situation**: The total net inflow of the main force this week was 91.186 million yuan, and the market trading enthusiasm recovered. Among different underlying asset REITs, the top three in terms of net inflow were energy infrastructure - based, transportation infrastructure - based, and warehousing and logistics - based REITs, with net inflows of 39.94 million, 26.45 million, and 13.33 million yuan respectively. The top three single - REITs in terms of net inflow were Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT, Ping An Guangzhou Expressway REIT, and Huaxia Huarun Commercial REIT, with net inflows of 25.91 million, 22.43 million, and 15.8 million yuan respectively, and the number of consecutive inflow days was 5 days for all [32]. - **Block trading situation**: The total block trading amount this week reached 706.2 million yuan, a significant increase compared with last week. There were block trading transactions on 5 trading days this week, with a total block trading amount of 201.54 million yuan. The block trading amount on Thursday (June 19, 2025) was the highest in the week, reaching 104.31 million yuan. The top three single - REITs in terms of block trading amount were CICC Shandong Expressway REIT, Huaan Zhangjiang Industrial Park REIT, and Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT, with trading amounts of 103.51 million, 20.94 million, and 20.31 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding average discount - premium rates were - 1.56%, - 0.68%, and - 1.21% respectively [33]. 4. Primary Market 4.1 Listed Projects As of June 20, 2025, there were 66 public REITs in China, with a total issuance scale of 17.4393 billion yuan. Among them, transportation infrastructure - based REITs had the largest issuance scale, reaching 6.8771 billion yuan, followed by park infrastructure - based REITs with an issuance scale of 2.7062 billion yuan. No new REITs were listed this week [37][38]. 4.2 Projects to be Listed There were 28 REITs in the state of being to be listed, including 16 initial REITs and 12 REITs to be expanded. The status of the initial projects of "Chuangjin Hexin Shounong Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" and "Southern Runze Technology Data Center Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" was updated to "passed", and the status of the initial projects of "Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" and "Southern Wan Guo Data Center Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" was updated to "accepted" [41].

2025 年 6 月 21 日 总量研究 小幅调整 ——可转债周报（2025 年 6 月 16 日至 2025 年 6 月 20 日） 要点 1、市场行情 本周（2025 年 6 月 16 日至 6 月 20 日，共 5 个交易日）转债市场小幅调整，全 周中证转债指数涨跌幅为-0.2%（上一交易周为 0%），本周中证全指变动为 -1.2%。2025 年开年以来，中证转债涨跌幅为+4.5%，中证全指数涨跌幅为 +0.1%，转债市场表现好于权益市场。 分评级来看，高评级券（评级为 AA+及以上）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、低评 级券（评级为 AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为-0.08%、-0.57%、-0.27%，高评 级券本周跌幅最少。分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于 50 亿元）、中 规模转债（余额在 5 至 50 亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于 5 亿元）本周涨 跌幅分别为-0.15%、-0.30%和-0.44%，大规模转债跌幅最少。分平价来看，超 高平价券（转股价值大于 130 元）、高平价券（转股价值在 110 至 130 元之间）、 中平价券（转股价值在 90 至 110 元之间）、低平价券（转 ...