Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][62]. Core Views - The swine sector is undergoing deepening regulation, with a focus on value reassessment opportunities. The report suggests that the price of pigs may face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply, but regulatory measures are expected to stabilize prices in the long run [1][16]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to improve, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [2][27]. - The animal health sector is seeing a potential improvement in competitive dynamics, particularly with the progress of clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions [3][35]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength and the market expected to continue its rapid growth [9][55]. Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is in a regulatory phase aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.87 yuan/kg. The number of breeding sows is stable at 40.38 million heads [15][16]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][16]. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of improvement, with a total of 80.33 thousand sets of breeding stock updated in the first three quarters of 2025. The report highlights a shift towards self-breeding, with self-bred stock accounting for 59% [2][27]. - Recommended companies in this sector are Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [2][27]. Animal Health - The competitive landscape in the animal health sector is expected to improve, supported by government initiatives to optimize the veterinary drug industry. The report notes that clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are underway, which could lead to commercialization [3][35]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipu Biological, with additional focus on Huisheng Biological, Zhongmu Biological, and others [3][35]. Planting - The report indicates a declining pig-to-grain price ratio, with the current ratio at 4.95. The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown slight fluctuations, with corn priced at 2181 yuan/ton [39][44]. - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][44]. Feed - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. The report notes a year-on-year increase in industrial feed production [45][46]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [45][46]. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The report highlights the increasing consumption per pet, with dogs averaging 2961 yuan and cats 2020 yuan annually [55][56]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with Ruipu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][55].

Group 1 - The report highlights the strategic acquisition of Venator UK's titanium dioxide business assets by Longbai Group, aiming to enhance its European operations and global footprint [6][7][8] - Longbai Group plans to establish subsidiaries in Malaysia and the UK, investing $5 million and $50 million respectively, to further its globalization strategy [4][9] - The titanium dioxide market is experiencing price increases, with the current market price for sulfate titanium dioxide ranging from 12,700 to 13,800 RMB per ton, indicating a positive market trend for Longbai Group [10] Group 2 - Haiguang Information reported a significant revenue growth of 54.65% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable acceleration in Q3 revenue growth reaching 69.60% [12][13] - The company is expanding its market presence through partnerships with key industry players, which is driving its revenue and profit growth [13][15] - Haiguang's CPU and DCU segments are expected to see substantial growth, particularly with increasing demand from government and internet sectors [16] Group 3 - The report indicates that the advertising business of Baidu is under short-term pressure, while AI SaaS is positively impacting cloud services [31][32] - Baidu's core revenue is projected to decline by 8% in Q3 2025, with online marketing revenue expected to drop by 22% [31][34] - The company is focusing on AI-driven search transformation to enhance user engagement and satisfaction, which may provide long-term growth potential [32] Group 4 - The report discusses the mechanical industry, specifically the Japanese motorcycle market, which saw a total production of 639,000 units in 2024, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year [21] - The domestic sales of motorcycles in Japan totaled 368,000 units in 2024, reflecting a decline of 9.2% year-on-year [22] - The report emphasizes the export dynamics and overseas production capacity of Japanese motorcycle manufacturers, with a total export volume of 484,000 units in 2024 [24] Group 5 - Zhongke Shuguang reported a revenue of 8.804 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.49% [26][27] - The company's non-recurring net profit increased by 66.79% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in its core business profitability [27][28] - The launch of the Shuguang AI supercluster system is expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the AI computing infrastructure market [28] Group 6 - The report indicates that the coal price is expected to show a long-term upward trend due to rising production costs and increased taxation [43][46] - The coal industry has experienced a consistent upward price trend over the past 30 years, driven by factors such as labor costs and environmental investments [44][46] - The report suggests that the coal price will continue to face upward pressure in the long term, despite potential fluctuations [46] Group 7 - The report highlights the growth of the cloud computing and network security sectors, with a focus on AI-driven opportunities for companies like Deepin Technology [47] - Deepin Technology has seen a significant increase in its cloud computing revenue, which now constitutes 46.36% of its total revenue, reflecting its strategic shift towards cloud services [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector is positioned as a crucial direction for the future development of the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials supports one generation of industry," highlighting the foundational role of the new materials industry in supporting other sectors [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditure among major cloud service providers (CSPs), with a projected total exceeding $420 billion in 2025, representing a 61% year-on-year increase. This shift in spending is moving from equipment that directly generates revenue to assets like servers and GPUs, indicating a focus on long-term competitiveness [7][25]. - OpenAI's strategic partnership with Broadcom aims to deploy a 10 GW AI accelerator, enhancing capabilities in AI computing and expected to be fully deployed by the end of 2029 [8][26]. 2. Aerospace Sector - The successful launch of the Long March 8 rocket marks the 600th mission of China's Long March series, showcasing advancements in the country's launch capabilities and the increasing proportion of new-generation rockets in recent missions [11][12]. 3. New Energy Sector - Recent breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology are expected to significantly enhance performance, potentially allowing for electric vehicle ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers [13]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - The establishment of a new innovation center in Guangzhou aims to foster collaboration between government, academia, and industry, focusing on synthetic biology and biomanufacturing [15][16]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued an action plan to advance new urban infrastructure construction by 2027, emphasizing the integration of smart management systems [18]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies in the new materials sector, indicating various investment ratings and expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to 2026 [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend of inventory reduction continues, driven by increased demand, and the aluminum price is expected to show stronger performance as inventory decreases [11] - The aluminum industry is anticipated to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth and ongoing demand growth points [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 17, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,778.5 per ton, a week-on-week increase of $32.5 per ton, and a year-on-year increase of $191.0 per ton [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,910.0 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 70.0 yuan per ton, and a year-on-year increase of 320.0 yuan per ton [24] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 118,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 74,000 tons [56] - The alumina production in September 2025 was 7.604 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 135,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 38.3 million tons [56] 3. Inventory - As of October 16, the domestic mainstream consumption area electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 627,000 tons, a week-on-week reduction of 22,000 tons, indicating a potential return to the inventory reduction trend [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Views - The coal price at northern ports has significantly increased due to limited supply from railway maintenance and temperature differences between northern and southern regions, with the price reaching 748 RMB/ton on October 17, up 39 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][13] - The supply side remains constrained, with production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increasing slightly, while demand from coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends [4][13] - The overall market sentiment is supported by high cash flow and profitability of leading coal companies, with a focus on maintaining a strong dividend yield [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal at northern ports has risen significantly, with specific increases in pit prices in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [4][14] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region has increased by 0.31 percentage points, while coal supply remains tight due to railway maintenance [4][19] - Coastal power plants' daily consumption has increased, while inland power plants have seen a decrease [4][22] 2. Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal has increased by 2.05 percentage points, with some recovery in production following holiday shutdowns [5][38] - The price of main coking coal at ports has risen to 1,710 RMB/ton, up 80 RMB/ton week-on-week [5][39] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises have decreased, indicating a tightening supply [5][46] 3. Coke - The supply side for coke has tightened, with production rates declining slightly due to cost pressures and maintenance [6][49] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased, reflecting challenges in the market [6][54] - Coke inventories at independent coking plants have decreased, indicating stable demand [6][62] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with limited supply due to production constraints in certain regions [6][66] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report highlights several key companies with strong investment potential, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, recommending a "Buy" rating for most [8]

2025 年 10 月 19 日 固定收益专题研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 赎回费隐忧下，二永跌出价值了吗？ 固定收益专题研究 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益点评：利率债切券策略初探*颜子琦， 刘畅》——2025-10-17 势吗？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-10-11 《债券研究周报：交易承压，配置入场*靳毅，刘 畅》——2025-08-26 曲线走陡，二永跌幅居前 9 月，债市在市场风险偏好及利率上行 的多重影响下持续调整。9 月 5 日中国证监会就《公开募集证券投资 基金销售费用管理规定》（征求意见稿）（简称公募销售新规）公 开征求意见，进一步引发债市赎回压力。二永作为公募基金重仓品 种，流动性较高，9 月跌幅居前，5Y 及以上二永债收益率均突破年 内高点，中长端 AAA-二级资本债跌幅更大，曲线走陡。 《固定收益点评：关税战升级，债市能重启下行趋 二永债 9 月赎回新高，四季度供给不弱 从供给结构看，9 月二永 债赎回新高，净融资缺口扩大，银行面临资本补充压力，四季度本 就为二永债供给旺季，在" ...

Group 1 - The report addresses the cost-effectiveness of convertible bonds in the current market environment for "fixed income +" products, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional low-price strategies due to scarcity and high valuations [6][7][11] - Historical backtesting shows that the "pure bond + convertible bond" combination has consistently outperformed the "pure bond + dividend" combination since 2020, with a notable annualized return of 5.87% for convertible bonds compared to 1.06% for dividend combinations as of October 10, 2025 [6][8][28] - The scarcity of low-priced convertible bonds is evident, with only 10 bonds priced below 110 yuan and less than 20% below 120 yuan as of October 15, 2025, indicating limited operational space for traditional low-price strategies [11][12] Group 2 - The report recommends shifting the focus of convertible bond allocation towards equity-oriented convertible bonds, which have shown better adaptability in various market conditions, particularly in a slow bull market [16][20][30] - Historical performance indicates that equity-oriented convertible bonds provide significant excess returns during upward market trends while maintaining manageable volatility [20][28] - A dynamic Delta management strategy is proposed to optimize risk-return profiles by adjusting the Delta exposure based on market trends, enhancing performance during market upswings and controlling drawdowns during downturns [23][26][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing unexpected prosperity, and the supply-side reform in the photovoltaic sector is continuously advancing [1] - The report highlights significant improvements in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium hexafluorophosphate market, with prices rising sharply due to the end of the oversupply situation [8] - The photovoltaic industry is seeing a notable recovery, with the average external price of granular silicon increasing by 27.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive trend in the sector [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is in a "de-involution" phase, with significant effects from supply-side reforms. The average external price of granular silicon reached 42.12 RMB/kg, up 27.9% from Q2, while cash costs decreased by 4.5% [5] - The price of silicon materials has stabilized around 50 RMB/kg, and there are expectations for new policies to further support the industry [5] - Companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., and high-efficiency battery technology firms such as BAK Power, Aiko Solar, and LONGi Green Energy [5] Wind Power - The offshore wind sector is entering a bidding peak, with significant projects being approved and orders being won by companies like Orient Cable and Zhongtian Technology [6] - The onshore wind market remains robust, with a high level of bidding activity and increasing average prices for wind turbines [7] Energy Storage - Hebei Province has released a list of independent energy storage pilot projects totaling 13.82 GW/47.03 GWh, indicating a push for diverse energy storage technologies [7] - The SNEC ES+2025 International Energy Storage Exhibition showcased advancements in large-scale energy storage systems [7] Lithium Battery - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain are advancing solid-state battery technologies, with significant deliveries of semi-solid batteries reported [7] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged over 20% in less than a month, reflecting a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [8] Power Equipment - The State Grid's fixed asset investment increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in power infrastructure [9] - The first cross-grid electricity spot trading between Southern and State Grid marks a significant step towards a unified electricity market in China [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the humanoid robot industry [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to experience significant investment opportunities as it evolves from 0 to 1, driven by the electric and intelligent transformation trends. The recent launch of the industrial-grade humanoid robot "G2" by Zhiyuan and a major order for the "Walker S2" by UBTECH highlight the industry's growth potential. The report suggests that the humanoid robot sector may be on the verge of a "ChatGPT moment" [18][10][5] Industry Performance - The humanoid robot industry is witnessing rapid product iterations and business collaborations, with a focus on scaling production and commercial applications. The report emphasizes the importance of companies with core component capabilities and active involvement in humanoid robotics [18][10][5] Key Events and Developments - Zhiyuan launched the new industrial-grade humanoid robot "G2," which showcases advanced capabilities in various industrial applications, including automotive and consumer electronics [5] - UBTECH secured a procurement agreement worth 32 million yuan for the "Walker S2" humanoid robot, adding to its previous large order, bringing the total contract value to nearly 500 million yuan [10] - XenseRobotics completed a significant Pre-A round of financing to enhance its technology and market presence in the humanoid robotics sector [6] - Beijing Yunji Technology officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 5.41 billion yuan, positioning itself as a leader in the global robot market [8] Investment Focus - The report recommends focusing on companies with core component expertise and active engagement in humanoid robotics, including Sanhua Intelligent Control, Top Group, and others involved in actuator assemblies and precision components [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][29]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic enterprise IT sector, focusing on network security, cloud computing, and IT infrastructure, which has driven a recovery in performance [1][9]. - The company's cloud computing revenue share has increased significantly from 5.45% in 2015 to 46.36% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][9]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.009 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.16% year-on-year growth, with notable increases in overseas market revenue [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in enterprise IT, providing products and services in network security, cloud computing, and IoT, with a market share of 11.1% in the domestic network security sector as of 2024 [1][9]. - The company has launched various products since its inception in 2002, including VPNs and firewalls, and has established a strong presence in the cloud computing market [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 62.09%, a year-on-year increase of 0.75 percentage points, with cloud computing business gross margin rising by 3.46 percentage points [2][10]. - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -228 million yuan, marking a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][10]. Business Segments - The network security segment includes products such as next-generation firewalls and XDR platforms, with the company holding the top market share in China as of Q1 2025 [3][14]. - The cloud computing segment features products like aDesk and EDS, with the company ranked first in the domestic hyper-converged market with a 25.1% market share [5][17]. AI Integration and R&D - The company is actively integrating AI into its network security and cloud computing services, launching several AI-driven products to enhance its offerings [6][20]. - The company maintains a high R&D investment rate, exceeding 25% consistently, with a significant proportion of its workforce dedicated to R&D [7][24]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.559 billion yuan, 9.859 billion yuan, and 11.535 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 240 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 418 million yuan [8][29].