Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][29]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic enterprise IT sector, focusing on network security, cloud computing, and IT infrastructure, which has driven a recovery in performance [1][9]. - The company's cloud computing revenue share has increased significantly from 5.45% in 2015 to 46.36% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][9]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.009 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.16% year-on-year growth, with notable increases in overseas market revenue [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in enterprise IT, providing products and services in network security, cloud computing, and IoT, with a market share of 11.1% in the domestic network security sector as of 2024 [1][9]. - The company has launched various products since its inception in 2002, including VPNs and firewalls, and has established a strong presence in the cloud computing market [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 62.09%, a year-on-year increase of 0.75 percentage points, with cloud computing business gross margin rising by 3.46 percentage points [2][10]. - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -228 million yuan, marking a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][10]. Business Segments - The network security segment includes products such as next-generation firewalls and XDR platforms, with the company holding the top market share in China as of Q1 2025 [3][14]. - The cloud computing segment features products like aDesk and EDS, with the company ranked first in the domestic hyper-converged market with a 25.1% market share [5][17]. AI Integration and R&D - The company is actively integrating AI into its network security and cloud computing services, launching several AI-driven products to enhance its offerings [6][20]. - The company maintains a high R&D investment rate, exceeding 25% consistently, with a significant proportion of its workforce dedicated to R&D [7][24]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.559 billion yuan, 9.859 billion yuan, and 11.535 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 240 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 418 million yuan [8][29].

2025 年 10 月 17 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林昕宇 S0350522110005 | | | | linxy01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 赵兰亭 S0350524080004 | | | | zhaolt@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 孙馨竹 S0350124060027 | | | | sunxz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 发布回购彰显信心，社区央厨战略持续验证 ——锅圈（02517）点评报告 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/10/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 锅圈 | 9.0% | 5.8% | 18.0% | | 恒生指数 | -2.1% | 5.6% | 27.6% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/10/16 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 3.65 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][8] Core Insights - JD Group is expected to achieve total revenue of 295.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 13.6%. Product revenue is projected at 224.8 billion yuan (YoY +9.9%), while service revenue is expected to reach 71.1 billion yuan (YoY +27.5%) [4][7] - The report anticipates a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.3 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a significant decrease of 68% year-over-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin dropping by 3.6 percentage points to 1.4% [4][7] - JD Retail's revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-over-year to 247.9 billion yuan, with a core GMV growth of 10% and an operating profit margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 5.5% [4][7] - The logistics segment is expected to see revenue growth of 11% year-over-year, reaching 49.3 billion yuan, benefiting from the overall growth of the express delivery market [4][7] Financial Forecasts - For 2025-2027, the revenue forecasts are adjusted to 1,325.3 billion yuan, 1,420.0 billion yuan, and 1,512.8 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding net profits are projected at 22.0 billion yuan, 37.7 billion yuan, and 51.5 billion yuan [7][8] - The report estimates a diluted EPS of 7.31 yuan for 2025, increasing to 16.93 yuan by 2027 [6][8] - The target market capitalization for JD Group in 2026 is set at 565.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 177 yuan per share [7][8]

Group 1 - The report addresses key issues such as analyzing the yield spread between new and old bonds from the perspective of 30Y, 10Y government bonds, and 10Y policy bank bonds, as well as evaluating current trading opportunities for specific bonds [5][13] - The switching of active bonds is influenced by issuance plans, with the scale determining the active status for government bonds, while policy bank bonds rely more on market institutions' behaviors and preferences [5][6] - The new and old bond yield spread exhibits a cyclical pattern of "widening-convergence," where the spread typically widens after a new bond is issued and narrows as liquidity premiums are realized and new bonds are issued [5][14] Group 2 - For 30Y government bonds, the trading focus may remain on the larger scale bond 2500002.IB, while the trading opportunity for the new bond 2500006.IB may be limited due to its yield inversion with the active bond [5][25] - In the case of 10Y government bonds, if the fund redemption fee reform is implemented, the market attention may shift towards this bond type, with the new bond 250016.IB having the potential to become an active bond [31][35] - The 10Y policy bank bonds also show a similar pattern to government bonds, with the yield spread typically widening and then converging after switching, but the opportunities depend more on market sentiment and liquidity changes due to the lack of transparent issuance plans [43][47] Group 3 - The report suggests that investors should focus on structural opportunities, particularly monitoring the transition of 250016.IB to an active bond, especially in the context of potentially increased demand for self-managed bank allocations [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2][39]. Core Insights - The long-term trend for coal prices is expected to be upward with fluctuations, driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher prices for raw materials and fuels [6][39]. - The average pre-tax profit margin for the coal mining industry from 1999 to 2025 is 10%, with a fluctuation range of -3% to 25%, indicating reasonable returns [36]. Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Over the past 30 years, the price of North Port 5500 kcal thermal coal has shown an upward trend with increasing volatility, with price ranges shifting from 200-400 CNY/ton (1995-2005) to 400-1200 CNY/ton (2015-2025) [10][7]. Cost Structure Analysis - The coal industry's selling price is composed of total costs and pre-tax net profit. Total costs include sales costs, taxes (mainly resource tax), and period expenses [14][11]. - The average unit operating cost for major coal companies increased from 181 CNY/ton in 2016-2020 to 255 CNY/ton in 2024, reflecting an increase of nearly 80 CNY/ton [15][39]. Tax and Fee Changes - Resource tax rates have been raised in major coal-producing regions, with rates reaching the maximum of 10% in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, which could increase costs by 10-20 CNY/ton if rates rise by 2-3 percentage points [32][39]. Company-Specific Cost Increases - For China Shenhua, the unit sales cost increased by 56 CNY/ton in 2024 compared to the 2016-2020 average, primarily due to rising labor costs and other expenses [20][18]. - Zhengzhou Coal Electricity's unit cost rose by 129 CNY/ton, significantly impacted by labor costs and maintenance expenses, with production volume decreasing by 35% compared to 2016 [31][29]. Profitability and Market Outlook - The report indicates that the coal price will continue to have upward pressure due to persistent cost increases and government taxation policies, despite potential market fluctuations [39][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.026 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 399 million yuan, up 13.13% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue reached 1.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.34%, with a net profit of 183 million yuan, up 8.35% year-on-year [4][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 40% year-on-year, primarily driven by the growth in revenue from energy-saving products for data centers and cabinets. The net profit attributable to the parent company also saw a year-on-year increase of 13.13% [4][10]. Market Position and Technology Adoption - The company is experiencing a significant increase in customer recognition, which is building a competitive advantage. The liquid cooling technology is entering a phase of large-scale application, driven by the high-density heat trends in computing equipment and the need for efficient cooling solutions [4][6]. Financial Metrics and Projections - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 29.40%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.43 percentage points. The company is increasing its investment in research and development, with sales, management, and R&D expenses rising by 38.66%, 27.77%, and 31.36% year-on-year, respectively [6][10]. Future Growth Expectations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 64.12 billion yuan, 100.71 billion yuan, and 158.53 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.82 billion yuan, 9.05 billion yuan, and 15.07 billion yuan for the same years [9][10].

Equity Market - The technology sector continues to show strong momentum, with a significant net inflow of 340 billion CNY in technology-themed ETFs in September, up from 413 billion CNY in August[18] - The total net inflow for industry and thematic ETFs reached a one-year high of 964 billion CNY in September, with notable increases in financial and real estate sectors[18] - The top net outflow was from the CSI 300 ETF, which saw a reduction of 146.46 billion CNY, as some investors sought structural opportunities near the 3900-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index[12] Bond Market - Bond ETFs have gained popularity, with a net inflow of 921 billion CNY in September, primarily driven by the Sci-Tech bond ETFs[58] - Major banks net purchased 3302 billion CNY in interest rate bonds, while other banks showed net selling behavior[66] - Insurance companies increased their net purchases of long-term interest rate bonds to 2561 billion CNY, up from 2046 billion CNY in August[69] Commodity Market - Gold ETFs experienced a net inflow of 55.98 billion CNY in September, although this was lower than the monthly inflows seen from February to April 2025[73] - Domestic investors shifted their focus from gold to gold stocks, with gold stock ETFs seeing significant performance improvements[73] Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased by 1674.06 billion CNY in September, marking the highest level since 2019, indicating a sustained high risk appetite among investors[47] - Southbound trading reached a record high of 1726.53 billion CNY in September, with Alibaba contributing significantly to the net purchases in the retail sector[53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longbai Group (002601) [1] Core Views - Longbai Group is accelerating its global expansion through various initiatives, particularly in the titanium dioxide business, which is expected to see both volume and price increases [3][4] - The acquisition of Venator UK's titanium dioxide assets is aimed at establishing a stronghold in the European market, enhancing production capabilities and optimizing sales structures [9][10] - The establishment of subsidiaries in Malaysia and the UK is part of the company's strategy to mitigate the impact of anti-dumping duties and strengthen its global presence [12] Financial Performance and Projections - As of October 16, 2025, Longbai Group's stock price is 19.45 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 46.41 billion CNY [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 295.49 billion CNY, 318.89 billion CNY, and 340.26 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 27.63 billion CNY, 33.48 billion CNY, and 40.10 billion CNY [14][15] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 12% in 2025, increasing to 16% by 2027 [15] Market Position and Strategy - Longbai Group is the largest titanium dioxide producer globally, with a production capacity of 1.51 million tons per year for titanium dioxide and 80,000 tons per year for sponge titanium [13] - The company is one of the few suppliers that utilize both sulfate and chloride processes for titanium dioxide production, allowing for a diversified product offering [13] - The recent increase in titanium dioxide prices, driven by market demand, positions the company favorably for future growth [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 54.65% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 9.49 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.96 billion yuan, up 28.56% year-on-year [5][10]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue accelerated to 4.03 billion yuan, marking a 69.60% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 760 million yuan, up 13.04% year-on-year [5][10]. - The company is expanding its market presence through deepened collaborations with OEMs and ecosystem partners, particularly in key industries [5]. Revenue and Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 60.10%, a decrease of 5.54 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D and sales expenses, with R&D expenses rising by 42.55% year-on-year to 2.59 billion yuan [6]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 2.26 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 465.64% year-on-year [6]. Market Potential - The company’s CPU and DCU segments are expected to experience substantial growth, particularly with increasing demand from government, internet, and financial sectors [7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic high-end chip market, benefiting from the accelerated development of AI computing power [10]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 16.84 billion yuan, 27.19 billion yuan, and 42.74 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.90 billion yuan, 6.38 billion yuan, and 11.43 billion yuan [10][11]. - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.68 yuan, 2.75 yuan, and 4.92 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 138.74 and 47.39 for 2026 and 2027 [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the impact of anti-involution on PPI is changing, with a noted improvement in PPI trends despite ongoing challenges in consumer demand [2][8] - In September, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, showing a slight recovery from August, but still fell short of market expectations [2][3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, but the decline was less severe than in August, indicating a potential stabilization in the PPI trend [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the CPI for food items dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 4.4%, primarily due to oversupply issues in the pork market [5][7] - Core CPI continues to rise, driven significantly by gold prices, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices increasing by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [2][5] - The report notes that while the PPI for durable consumer goods showed a decline of 0.4% month-on-month, the PPI for daily consumer goods increased by 0.4 percentage points compared to August, indicating some improvement [4][5] Group 3 - The report suggests that the weak demand in the consumer market is limiting the transmission of PPI changes to downstream living goods prices [4][8] - The analysis of high-frequency data indicates some stabilization in prices for certain construction industry goods, which may alleviate downward pressure on PPI [6][8] - The report emphasizes that the ongoing anti-involution policies are still in effect, but their impact on prices is becoming less pronounced, with a need to consider international trade events in future PPI trends [8]