2025 年 07 月 31 日 宏观点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 长期无虞 短期无忧 ——7 月政治局会议解读 最近一年走势 相关报告 《2025 年中期宏观经济形势与政策展望：新格局 下的中国经济：韧性与潜力*夏磊》——2025-07-08 《 黄 金 价 格 波 动 的 底 层 逻 辑 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-07-04 《宏观深度研究：影响土地市场的五大因素*夏磊》 ——2025-06-18 《宏观深度研究：关于关税：特朗普的核心团队在 想什么？*夏磊》——2025-06-01 《宏观深度研究：土地市场的新变化*夏磊》—— 2025-05-12 事件： 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定今年 10 月在北京召开中 国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共 中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署 下半年经济工作。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 国海证券股份有限公 ...

2025 年 07 月 31 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 范圣哲 S0350522080001 fansz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如何增厚高评级转债收益？ 范圣哲》——2025-05-18 高评级高余额转债上半年表现稍弱 年初至 7 月 25 日，中证转债指 数创出新高，但市场呈现显著规模负效应。余额较大的高评级转债 整体收益率稍弱于小余额品种，对加权指数形成拖累。与此同时， 评级维度同样表现欠佳，AA-及以下评级指数显著领先，高评级品种 因往往伴随大规模特征而受到双重制约，导致其在涨幅领先个券中 占比较低。 高评级转债内部分化显著，正股表现成关键驱动。 聚焦 AA 及以上 评级转债，行业表现呈现结构性分化：科技板块与周期板块表现相 对领先；社会服务板块下跌，机械设备基本持平，通信、交运等行 业则相对滞后。时间节奏上，市场经历 1-2 月估值修复、3-4 月分化 调整、5-7 月企稳回暖的演进路径。同时，上半年正股与转债表现出 现明显错配，单纯依据正股筛选转债效果有限。进一步深入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The chromium salt industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring due to surging demand from the overseas gas turbine and military sectors, which will drive up the demand for metallic chromium [9][10][11] - The global demand for chromium salts is projected to grow from 930,000 tons in 2024 to 1,310,000 tons by 2028, representing a substantial increase [10][12] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming chromium salt market cycle due to its competitive advantages in production capacity and technology [10][11][14] Market Data - As of July 30, 2025, the company's current stock price is 14.41 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 10,242.06 million yuan [6] - The company holds about 24% of the global chromium salt production capacity, indicating a strong market position [31][32] Demand Analysis - The demand for metallic chromium is expected to double from 23,000 tons in 2024 to 49,700 tons by 2028, driven by increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines [11][13] - The military and aerospace sectors are also anticipated to see significant growth, with NATO countries committing to increase defense spending [11][12] Supply Analysis - The supply of chromium salts is constrained due to strict environmental regulations and the difficulty of expanding production capacity globally [10][30] - The report highlights that the chromium salt industry is facing a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 250,000 tons by 2028 [10][12] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 45.70 billion yuan, 53.88 billion yuan, and 61.81 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.66 billion yuan, 10.05 billion yuan, and 13.34 billion yuan [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report explores why European energy CPI remains high despite significant declines in energy prices, the lack of benefits from low-cost renewable energy for the public, and the impact of high electricity prices on commodities [5][11] Summary by Sections 1. European Energy CPI and Electricity Prices - European energy CPI reached a historical peak of 192.5 in October 2022, driven by extreme weather and geopolitical conflicts, despite a subsequent 82% drop in natural gas prices and a 40% drop in oil prices by June 2025 [5][11] - As of June 2025, the average household electricity price in Germany was 40.0 euro cents per kWh, translating to an annual cost of approximately 11,573 RMB for a typical family [11][12] 2. Factors Supporting High Electricity Prices - The high electricity prices are supported by five main factors: 1. The transition away from Russian energy sources has led to a doubling of procurement costs for LNG from the US [11][23] 2. Aging electricity infrastructure has resulted in rising grid costs, with distribution network costs increasing by 31.6% since 2019 [11][28] 3. Rising taxes and fees, which accounted for 38.4% of electricity costs in 2024, disproportionately burdening consumers [11][36] 4. Rigid renewable energy subsidies that add to end-user costs, despite a reduction in traditional subsidies [11][42] 5. High carbon emission costs, with EU-ETS prices reaching nearly 90 euros, contributing significantly to electricity costs [11][44] 3. Renewable Energy and Market Mechanisms - Despite an increase in renewable energy generation, with wind and solar accounting for 26.9% of total generation by June 2025, the benefits have not translated into lower consumer prices due to market structure issues [11][49] - The disconnect between wholesale and retail electricity markets has resulted in persistent high prices, as wholesale prices are often set by higher-cost fossil fuel generation [11][52] 4. Impact on Commodities and Manufacturing - High electricity prices have severely impacted energy-intensive industries, leading to reduced production in sectors like aluminum and fertilizers, while also diminishing the competitiveness of European manufacturing against countries like China [5][6]

Group 1: AI-Driven PCB Industry Expansion - The PCB industry is experiencing significant growth opportunities driven by the global AI wave, leading to substantial capital expenditure increases for related companies [3] - Demand for high-end products such as HDI, IC substrates, and high-frequency boards is accelerating due to the needs of AI servers, 5G communication, and electric vehicles [3] - Key players like Chipbond Technology are focusing on high-end and international strategies, with PCB equipment sales expected to exceed 370 units in 2024, a 35% year-on-year increase [3] Group 2: Eco-Optics and Industrial Vision - Eco-Optics is a leader in the domestic industrial machine vision sector, providing high-efficiency and high-precision inspection solutions for PCB manufacturing [4] - The company’s products meet international standards in resolution, image modes, acquisition speed, and noise control, serving major domestic PCB inspection equipment manufacturers [4] - The electronic manufacturing sector is expected to see a significant increase in shipment volume in 2024, with higher gross margins compared to other business segments [4] Group 3: Tesla's Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Tesla reported Q2 2025 revenue of $22.496 billion, a 12% year-on-year decline, with a gross profit of $3.878 billion, down 15% [5][6] - The automotive segment saw a significant revenue drop of 16% to $16.661 billion, attributed to decreased sales, reduced carbon credit income, and increased competition [6] - The Robotaxi pilot program has begun, with expectations for significant financial impact by the end of 2026, while the launch of the Optimus 3 model is anticipated by the end of 2025 [7][8] Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecasts for Tesla - Revenue projections for Tesla from 2025 to 2027 are $86.218 billion, $92.307 billion, and $96.104 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of -11.7%, +7.1%, and +4.1% respectively [8] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are $4.883 billion, $6.205 billion, and $7.238 billion, with corresponding PS valuations of 12.2, 11.4, and 10.9 times [8] - The report suggests monitoring Tesla's future Robotaxi developments and the rollout of affordable models, with an initial coverage rating of "overweight" [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the autonomous driving industry [1] Core Insights - The autonomous driving industry is at a pivotal point of capability evolution, with advancements in AI and high-performance computing driving the development of autonomous driving solutions [5][8] - The report identifies that the differentiation in autonomous driving capabilities among automakers is diminishing as the industry matures, leading to a focus on safety features and user experience [5][8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report outlines the current state of the autonomous driving industry, highlighting the convergence of technology paths and the need for enhanced safety features as the industry transitions to higher levels of automation [5][6] 2. Corporate Strategy and Organization - Companies are adjusting their organizational structures and research focuses to improve R&D efficiency and commercialization pace, with a notable shift towards AI applications [6][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining product strength and long-term operational capabilities in a price-sensitive competitive landscape [6][52] 3. Technical Capabilities - **Sensors**: The report discusses the parallel development of multiple sensing solutions, including LiDAR, cameras, and radar, to meet safety and reliability requirements [7] - **Computing Power**: It highlights the establishment of cloud-based computing centers for model training and algorithm iteration, with Tesla leading at over 75 Eflops and some Chinese automakers achieving around 10 Eflops [7] - **Vehicle-Cloud Models**: The report notes a shift from rule-based to data-driven models, enhancing decision-making capabilities through the integration of multimodal data [7] 4. Consumer Perception - The report indicates that autonomous driving products are becoming increasingly recognized by consumers, with features such as parking assistance and safety enhancements being continuously optimized [7][49] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on automakers making significant advancements in R&D and functional deployment, including Tesla, Xpeng, Li Auto, NIO, and Xiaomi, as well as leading third-party solution providers like Momenta and Horizon Robotics [8][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit growth of over 35% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by business structure optimization and scale effects [5] - The company expects H1 2025 revenue to be no less than 1.45 billion RMB, representing a growth of at least 27% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to be no less than 175 million RMB, reflecting a growth of at least 33% [5] - The company's net profit margin for H1 2025 is projected at 11.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in high-margin business revenue, leading to improved gross margins [5] - The net profit margin for the company is expected to continue rising due to scale effects [5] - The company anticipates a 10% year-on-year increase in internal customer traffic for H1 2025 [5] Business Segments - The beauty and health business is expected to see a net consumption growth of approximately 30% year-on-year, maintaining industry leadership [5] - The medical beauty segment is projected to grow over 10% in net consumption, with internal customer traffic also increasing by over 10% [5] - The sub-health medical services are expected to see a net consumption growth exceeding 100%, with internal net consumption growth over 50% [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 3 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.6 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 8%, and 9% respectively [7] - The projected net profit for the same period is 290 million, 340 million, and 390 million RMB, with growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 14% respectively [7] - The report indicates a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 22X for 2025, 19X for 2026, and 17X for 2027 based on the closing price of 30.3 HKD on July 21, 2025 [5][9]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The central bank's monetary policy is leaning towards limited easing, with the cancellation of pledged bond freezes having a neutral impact on the bond market [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is in its early stages and has not yet directly affected the bond market, primarily influencing through the stock market [3] Group 2: Swine Industry Outlook - The long-term value reassessment opportunity for the swine industry is promising, with pig prices expected to decline in the short to medium term due to supply pressures [4] - Key recommended companies in the swine sector include Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4] Group 3: Poultry and Animal Health - The poultry market is experiencing price declines, with a focus on marginal improvements in the cycle [5] - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, with a growing interest in the pet medical industry, projected to reach a market size of 840 billion yuan by 2024 [7] Group 4: Machinery Industry Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 14% in June 2025, driven by significant increases in exports of motorcycles over 250cc [12][14] - Africa continues to show high growth rates in motorcycle exports, with a notable increase of 63% [15] Group 5: Computer Industry Developments - The AI computing market is experiencing exponential growth, with significant opportunities in AI processors and related sectors [18] - Recommended companies in the AI computing space include Haiguang Information and Nvidia [19] Group 6: Apparel Industry Performance - Xtep International's main brand shows steady growth, while the Saucony brand is expected to grow significantly, with a 20%+ increase in retail sales [22] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 144.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding net profit of 13.7 billion yuan [25] Group 7: Automotive Sector Trends - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a notable increase in stock prices for companies like Li Auto and NIO [26] - The launch of new models, including the Li Auto i8 and Tesla Model Y 6-seater, is expected to drive consumer interest [27][29] Group 8: Sportswear Industry Insights - Anta Sports reported low single-digit growth in its main brand, while outdoor brands are experiencing strong growth, with a 50%-55% increase in sales for other brands [32] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's international market presence [34] Group 9: Consumer Goods Market Analysis - The consumer goods sector is under pressure, with a decline in retail sales for food and beverage categories, particularly in the restaurant sector [43] - Recommendations for consumer goods include companies like Nongfu Spring and Eastroc Beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer spending [46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1][9]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q2 performance showed improvement both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased sales and product mix enhancement [5][8]. - The company achieved total revenue of 92.37 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% [5]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 52.35 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year and 30.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 161.9% [5]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 313,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.9% [5]. - The average selling price per vehicle reached 167,000 yuan, up 11,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [5]. Sales and Market Position - The company maintained its leading position in the pickup truck segment, with Q2 export sales of 10,700 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.5% [5]. - For the first half of 2025, total global sales of the company's pickups reached 96,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with overseas sales of 30,000 units, up 24.3% year-on-year [5]. Product Development - The company has been actively launching new products, with the latest models featuring advanced hybrid systems and extended range capabilities [5]. - The introduction of new models is expected to accelerate demand, particularly with the integration of intelligent driving technologies [5]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 225.3 billion yuan, 252.6 billion yuan, and 281.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 12%, and 11% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 14.03 billion yuan, 15.76 billion yuan, and 17.14 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 11%, 12%, and 9% respectively [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the context of sustained low interest rates, credit bond ETFs have achieved rapid expansion due to their advantages such as low fees, good liquidity, and the ability to be used for margin financing. The continuous expansion of ETFs will support credit spreads at a low level, and component bonds may perform better. Newly launched science and technology bond ETFs still have investment value. As component bonds become more crowded in trading, individual bonds of the same issuer not included in the index may have potential relative valuation advantages [2][22]. - However, due to the high liquidity of credit bond ETFs, there may be greater valuation adjustment risks when the bond market adjusts or experiences redemptions. Currently, the trading of credit bond ETFs is relatively crowded, so investors are advised to control their positions in the short term and focus on post - adjustment layout opportunities [2][26]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Low Interest Rates and the Potential Expansion of Credit Bond ETFs - **Credit Bond ETF Advantages**: - The types of tracking indexes are diverse, and the coverage of maturities is gradually improving. Among the 21 listed credit bond ETFs, different products cover different maturities, with newly launched products providing longer - term options [13]. - As on - exchange products, they support T + 0 trading, allowing for flexible trading and higher capital utilization efficiency [17]. - Benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs have better liquidity. Their underlying bonds are high - quality credit bonds, and they have been included in the list of collateral for margin repurchase since June, enhancing capital efficiency and strategy flexibility [17]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: The rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs has led to a continuous narrowing of credit spreads, especially for component bonds. Science and technology bond ETFs have also attracted significant capital inflows. There are investment opportunities in component bonds and individual bonds not included in the index, but there are also risks of greater valuation adjustments during market downturns [18][22][26]. 3. Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Prices**: This week (July 14 - 18, 2025), liquidity tightened slightly. R007 closed at 1.51%, remaining basically unchanged from last week, while DR007 closed at 1.51%, up 3BP from last week. The 6 - month national stock transfer discount rate closed at 0.86%, down 8BP from last week [3][38]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase this week was 114,846.9 billion yuan, a 2.2% decrease from last week. Fund companies and bank wealth management products had net financing of 39.1 billion yuan and - 43.65 billion yuan respectively [41]. 4. Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performing and general interest - rate bond funds were 6.90 and 5.72 respectively, increasing by 0.02 and 0.15 from last week [50]. - **"Asset Scarcity" Index**: The "asset scarcity" index showed a slight upward trend [4]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long - term government bonds, and 10 - year local government bonds are provided, with specific construction methods referring to relevant reports [61][64][67]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio was 107.1% this week, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among different institutions, the leverage ratios of insurance, fund, and securities companies decreased by 1.3, 0.6, and 1.3 percentage points respectively [68]. - **Bank Self - Investment Comparison Table**: The table shows the nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and after - tax and risk - adjusted returns of different investment products such as general loans, 10 - year government bonds, and 10 - year AAA - rated local government bonds [73]. 5. Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: Information on the weekly establishment scale of different types of funds and the 2025 annualized yield distribution of funds is presented [75]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The weekly issuance volume of bank wealth management products and the 2025 annualized yield distribution of wealth management products are shown. The overall market product break - even rate decreased this week, reaching 1.4% [77][78]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking - Information on the trend of cross - period spreads and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract is provided, but specific analysis is not elaborated in the summary [84]. 7. General Asset Management Landscape - Information on the scale changes of general asset management, public funds, and bank wealth management products is presented, with different data cut - off points [86][89].