一、组合策略收益跟踪 本周模拟组合走势依然存在分歧，超过半数策略收益边际下滑，其中利率风格组合尤为明显。利率风格组合中，二级 超长型、产业超长型策略组合收益靠前，分别达到 0.19%、0.19%；信用风格组合中，二级超长型、产业超长型策略 组合收益居于前列，读数分别为 0.23%、0.21%。 分重仓券种看，本周二级债重仓策略有所修复，中短信用仓位延续上月稳收益属性。信用风格存单重仓组合周度收益 均值小幅降至 0.11%，与上周基本持平；城投重仓组合的周度收益均值与存单重仓组合接近，中短信用仓位持续发挥 压舱石作用，降低组合波动，同时策略有效性逐步显现，其中，城投哑铃型组合单周收益达到 0.13%；二级资本债重 仓组合收益边际修复，较上周上涨 11.1bp，而本周二级债下沉策略收益收于 0.17%，优于其他策略；超长债重仓策略 收益也呈现出一定涨幅，周度收益均值达到 0.2%左右，且产业超长型、二级超长型组合表现悉数超过对应利率风格 组合。 收益来源方面，各类策略组合票息收益低位回升，且近一个月票息波动大幅走低。主要策略中，城投短端下沉及哑铃 型组合票息仍在 0.039%左右，其余多数策略票息基本位于年化收益 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on price increases for specific products such as 康宽 and 硝化棉 [1] Core Insights - The chemical market has shown an upward trend, with the SW Chemical Index rising by 2.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.73% [1] - Key price increases have been noted in various chemical products, including 康宽, which has reached 300,000 CNY/ton, and SAF, which has seen significant price jumps [1] - The report highlights the successful commercial operation of BASF's Black Mass plant in Germany, which has an annual processing capacity of 15,000 tons of waste lithium-ion batteries [1] - The report also mentions the recent price settlement for potassium fertilizer contracts in India at 349 USD/ton, which may serve as a reference for future contracts in China [1] - The AI industry is experiencing explosive growth, with significant implications for nuclear power demand, as evidenced by Meta's 20-year nuclear power purchase agreement [2][3] Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude oil futures averaged 65.39 USD/barrel, up 1.03 USD (1.6%) from the previous week, while WTI futures averaged 63.35 USD/barrel, up 2.16 USD (3.53%) [10] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, with the agricultural chemicals sector showing the highest weekly increase of 7.69% [10][11] Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is stabilizing with a slight decrease in raw material prices, while domestic and international demand continues to recover [23] - The sweetener market, particularly for 三氯蔗糖, is expected to improve due to tightening supply despite weak demand [25] - The dye market remains stable, with no significant changes in pricing, while the carbonates market is facing downward pressure due to weak demand [31][32] Key Chemical Product Price Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance across different segments [22][29] - The report notes that the titanium dioxide market is under pressure, with prices continuing to decline due to weak fundamentals [27] Industry Events - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for July, which may impact oil prices and the chemical sector [2] - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariff policies could have significant implications for global trade and the chemical industry [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery equipment sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Yingliu Technology [13]. Core Insights - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 0.93% over the past week, ranking 19th among 31 primary industry categories, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.88% [3][16]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 7.29%, ranking 6th among the 31 primary industry categories, contrasting with a 1.55% decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [17]. - The report highlights the potential for humanoid robots to achieve commercial viability, with significant advancements in technology and training [27]. - The construction machinery sector is experiencing short-term fluctuations in operating rates, but the long-term recovery logic driven by domestic demand remains intact [28]. - The gas turbine industry is seeing an upward trend in demand, with domestic companies like Yingliu Technology benefiting from increased orders [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Yingliu Technology [13]. 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index rose by 0.93% last week, while the year-to-date performance shows a 7.29% increase [3][17]. 3. Core Insights Update - The report notes that the machinery sector is witnessing a recovery, with specific segments like laser equipment and robotics showing strong performance [26]. 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The manufacturing PMI for May was 49.5, indicating a slight improvement but still in a contraction zone [29]. 4.2 Construction Machinery - Excavator sales in April reached 22,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [36]. 4.3 Railway Equipment - Railway fixed asset investment and passenger volume are both showing positive growth, indicating a recovery in demand [45]. 4.4 Shipbuilding - The global new ship price index reached 187.43 in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.32% [47]. 4.5 Oilfield Equipment - Brent crude oil prices are fluctuating around $65 per barrel, with ongoing geopolitical factors influencing the market [49]. 4.6 Industrial Gases - Liquid nitrogen prices are on the rise, indicating a potential recovery in gas prices [55]. 5. Industry Important Developments - The report mentions significant contracts and technological advancements in the general machinery sector, highlighting the internationalization of companies like Xiangdian [57][58].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the home appliance sector, indicating a strong certainty in domestic demand growth and potential for export growth in emerging markets [7][40]. Core Insights - The adjustment of national subsidy policies aims to optimize resource allocation and enhance fund efficiency, guiding the industry towards high-quality development [3][14]. - The subsidy model is shifting from a "universal" approach to "precise control," with a pilot "quota allocation" model in Jiangsu expected to become a national standard [3][16]. - The current funding disbursement mechanism may transition from a pre-allocation based on reimbursement ratios to a "total pre-allocation" system, improving cash flow for enterprises [3][16]. - Online supervision is being strengthened to reduce arbitrage opportunities, with regions like Guangdong and Shanghai tightening cross-regional subsidies [3][16]. - The price system is expected to stabilize, with leading brands likely to initiate structural price increases as subsidy limits are imposed, leading to a more rational competitive environment [3][17]. Market and Sector Tracking - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.88%, while the Shenwan Home Appliance Index decreased by 1.4% [4][18]. - Key stock performers included Springlight Technology (+28.64%), Beilingsong (+21.17%), and Hesheng New Materials (+15.81%), while Midea Group (-4.25%), Hisense Visual (-3.98%), and Boss Electric (-3.74%) saw declines [4][18]. - Raw material prices showed a mixed trend, with copper prices up by 1.45% and aluminum prices down by 0.80% during the week [21][23]. Real Estate Data Tracking - In April 2025, the cumulative area of new residential construction was 131,639.8 thousand square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year [5][32]. - The cumulative area of residential construction was 4,319,367.5 thousand square meters, down 10.1% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1) Capitalizing on domestic demand and subsidy policies, particularly in the white goods sector [7][40]. 2) Investing in the black goods sector, which continues to show structural upgrade logic [7][40]. 3) Targeting the cleaning appliance segment, which remains promising in terms of growth [7][40].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.02-2025.06.06）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2682.22 点(周环比+0.91%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3873.98 点（周环比+0.88%），深证综指收于 2007.69 点（周环比+1.82%），上证综指收于 3385.36 点（周环比+1.13%），科 创板收于 991.64 点（周环比+1.50%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的为 通信（周环比+5.27%）、有色金属（周环比+3.74%)、电子（周环比+3.60%），农林牧渔（周环比+0.91%）排名第 20。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 129.17 公斤/头，同时本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.04%至 16.25%，均重下降速度环比上周有所放 缓，供给持续增加下短期猪价持续调整。根据涌益咨询/钢联数据，5 月份样本企业能繁母猪存栏分 别环比 +0.32%/+0.45%，能繁母猪存栏在盈利背景下依旧小幅提升。目前在政策引导&猪价持续转弱的背景下，预计能繁母猪 存栏后续增长有限，中期或趋势线下，利好中期行业良性发展。当下猪价表现下成本领先的头部养殖 ...

富国 ETF 轮动因子与轮动策略表现 5 月份市场整体呈震荡走势，富国 ETF 轮动因子表现稳定，IC 为-3.26%，多空组合收益率为-6.96%，多空净值曲线表 现良好。 5 月份富国 ETF 轮动策略收益率为-2.03%，等权基准 1.43%，超额收益率为-3.46%。5 月份建议关注的农业 ETF （159825.SZ）、大数据 ETF（515400.SH）、稀土 ETF（159713.SZ）中农业 ETF 和稀土 ETF 表现较好，相对市场有较高 的超额收益。 最新建议关注 ETF 根据富国 ETF 轮动因子的最新结果，最新一期（2025 年 5 月）建议关注 ETF 分别为农业 ETF（159825.SZ）、大数据 ETF（515400.SH）、稀土 ETF（159713.SZ）。其中农业 ETF 由于扣非净利润环比、净利润环比、经营资本占比与市盈率 倒数指标排名处于高位而排名第一。大数据 ETF 由于扣非净利润环比、经营资本周转与经营资本占比指标排名靠前排 名第二，稀土 ETF 在扣非净利润环比、市盈率倒数与分析师预期变化指标排名靠前排名第三。 风险提示 1、以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Offline retail: Yonghui's employee training system is continuously upgraded, and the "Craftsman Plan" is steadily progressing. The training center and operations center have developed national skill standards covering seven core projects, with over 3,000 technician certifications expected to be completed by mid-June [1][12] - Online retail: AI empowerment is gradually strengthening, with Kuaishou's Keling achieving an annualized revenue run rate exceeding 100 million USD, and Meituan launching the first AI tool for hotel merchants in China [2][15] Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance: In the second week of May, the overall GMV of Tmall and JD.com decreased by 6.23% year-on-year. The top five categories in terms of growth were automotive and bicycles, consumer electronics, services, home appliances, and toys [3][17] Market Review - From June 2 to June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.13%, 1.42%, 0.88%, 2.16%, and 2.25% respectively. The retail trade sector rose by 1.29%, ranking sixth among nine major consumption sectors [4][22] Investment Recommendations - Yonghui Supermarket: The business model has undergone fundamental changes, moving towards a selective retail route with long-term growth potential in the post-consumption era. Yonghui has unique competitive advantages, including a strong focus on fresh produce, scale advantages, and financing benefits from its listed status [5][30] - Meituan: The takeaway service is entering a new competitive landscape, with long-term confidence in the barriers built in user mindset, rider, and merchant sides. User loyalty is expected to remain strong despite competition from JD.com [6][32]

本期微观交易温度计读数回升 2 个百分点至 43% 本期除交易热度外，其余指标分位均值均上升。交易热度中主要是因为相对换手率、TL/T 多空比分位值不同程度回落， 带动交易热度分位均值下降 7 个百分点。除此外，回升幅度较大的指标包括基金分歧度、上市公司理财买入量、不动 产比价、政策利差。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量小幅依然为 10% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量依然为 2 个（占比 10%）、位于中性区间的指标数量上升至 11 个（占比 55%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 7 个（占比 35%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，30/10Y 国债换手率由中性区间 降至偏冷区间，配置盘力度由过热区间降至中性区间，政策利差、股债比价均由偏冷区间升至中性区间，机构杠杆由 中性区间升至过热区间。 交易热度分位均值下降 7 个百分点 分类别来看，①本期交易热度指标中，30/10Y、1/10Y 相对换手率分位值继续下降 43、10 个百分点，TL/T 多空比分 位值也继续降低 6 个百分点。全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值上升 7、11 个百分点，因此交易热度分位均值下降 7 个 百分点。②机构行为类中， ...

本周观点 关注海外资产的季报变化： 投资逻辑 港股风险偏好持续上行。1）港股市场持续火热，综合港股 IPO（无论是 A+H 还是新股 IPO）和成交量等因素来看， 港股的资产质量、风险偏好等都有显著提升，积极寻找港股的机会，其中资产交易平台的价值凸显。2）开年以 来，港股市场多板块或者赛道景气度上行，AI、新消费、创新药等板块的赚钱明显，港股市场的风险偏好显著提 升，投资人挖掘港股的情绪持续上涨，且有蔓延至中小盘的趋势，其中传媒、消费中小盘的边际变化尤为引人关 注。3）我们持续看多虚拟资产、Web3.0 市场的发展，由于稳定币政策和 circle 上市 IPO 刺激，近期虚拟资产的 相关个股表现活跃。我们认为，稳定币政策只是虚拟资产大趋势下的一环，未来还会有更多政策制度出台。短期 个股层面涨幅较大，建议关注业务持续落地能力。4）我们看好美股中概回港趋势，除了回港 IPO，我们也关注中 概二次在港交易的上升趋势。网易、携程、新东方等优质资产，尽管在港未主要上市，但是其二次在港交易的比 例持续提升。5）海外中国资产估值体系的核心要素依旧是中美贸易摩擦和经济大环境的影响，建议持续关注美 国关税贸易政策的变化以及国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [76]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [20][21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stabilization despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from avian influenza affecting supply [33][29]. - The dairy and beef sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for raw milk and beef, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming major indices [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.17 kg, with prices showing a slight decline [19][20]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year [21]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to supply pressures [21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.32 CNY/kg, while overall prices remained stable [29][33]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust [33]. 2.3 Dairy and Beef Industry - Raw milk prices have stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery in the second half of 2025 [37]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies and external uncertainties [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing grain yields to counteract potential production declines [44]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight variations in water product prices [64]. - The report notes that prices for various fish species remain steady, with some increases in shrimp prices [64].