房地产开发 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 04 年 月 日 2025 年 1-4 月统计局数据点评: 住宅销售金额-1.9%，投资同比-10.3%，跌幅均有所扩大 投资：1-4 月份，全国房地产开发投资额为 27730 亿元，同比减少 10.3%，较 前值降低 0.4pct；1-4 月份住宅、办公楼和商业营业用房累计开发投资额分别 为 21179、1108 和 1982 亿元，同比分别为-9.6%、-16.7%和-8.3%。 新开工：1-4 月份，全国累计新开工面积为 17836 万方，同比减少 23.8%，较 前值提高 0.6pct；1-4 月份住宅、办公楼和商业营业用房累计新开工面积分别 为 13164、483 和 1118 万方，同比分别为-22.3%、-30.6%和-22.2%。 竣工：1-4 月份，全国累计竣工面积为 15648 万方，同比减少 16.9%，较前值 降低 2.6pct；1-4 月份住宅、办公楼和商业营业用房累计竣工面积分别为 11424、471 和 1120 万方，同比分别为-16.8%、-9.5%和-18.4%。 施工：1-4 月份，全国累计 ...

证券研究报告 |行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 04 年 月 日 区块链 稳定币+RWA：下一个金融科技的大变革 近期随着美国《GENIUS 法案》及香港《稳定币条例》陆续立法通过， 市场对稳定币主题的关注度快速提升。考虑到 Circle 上市在即，结合 Tether 的财报，稳定币主题亦有可对照研究的商业模式，作为金融科技 领域的大变革，值得重视。 稳定币某种程度上充当了加密货币市场"计价工具"的作用，这是对传统 法币交易的一种补充甚至替代。稳定币诞生后不久，加密货币市场最主要 的交易对是稳定币交易对，因此，稳定币在交易工具、价值流通等方面， 充当着"法币"的作用。主流交易所（包括 DEX 去中心化交易所），比 特币现货、期货交易对以 USDT 等稳定币为主，尤其是交易量更为大的期 货合约，主流交易所正向合约（以美元稳定币为保证金的期货合约）几乎 都是 USDT 交易对。 技术上看，稳定币代表着新一代支付技术。USDT 由 Tether 公司于 2014 年推出，1 USDT 锚定 1 美元，是市场较早的一批稳定币，此后逐渐成 为市场上使用最广泛的稳定币产品，当前发行规模超 1500 亿 ...

证券研究报告 |行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 04 年 月 日 区块链 稳定币+RWA：下一个金融科技的大变革 近期随着美国《GENIUS 法案》及香港《稳定币条例》陆续立法通过， 市场对稳定币主题的关注度快速提升。考虑到 Circle 上市在即，结合 Tether 的财报，稳定币主题亦有可对照研究的商业模式，作为金融科技 领域的大变革，值得重视。 稳定币某种程度上充当了加密货币市场"计价工具"的作用，这是对传统 法币交易的一种补充甚至替代。稳定币诞生后不久，加密货币市场最主要 的交易对是稳定币交易对，因此，稳定币在交易工具、价值流通等方面， 充当着"法币"的作用。主流交易所（包括 DEX 去中心化交易所），比 特币现货、期货交易对以 USDT 等稳定币为主，尤其是交易量更为大的期 货合约，主流交易所正向合约（以美元稳定币为保证金的期货合约）几乎 都是 USDT 交易对。 技术上看，稳定币代表着新一代支付技术。USDT 由 Tether 公司于 2014 年推出，1 USDT 锚定 1 美元，是市场较早的一批稳定币，此后逐渐成 为市场上使用最广泛的稳定币产品，当前发行规模超 1500 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic tourism market shows a steady recovery with significant growth in various segments, including local travel, cultural heritage experiences, and family-oriented trips [3][4] - The overall consumer market is experiencing stable growth, with notable increases in sales across various retail sectors during the Dragon Boat Festival [4] - The tourism sector remains vibrant, with a marked increase in inbound tourism orders and significant growth in ticket sales for attractions [3][4] Summary by Sections Travel Data - During the Dragon Boat Festival, 119 million domestic trips were made, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and a 26.7% increase compared to 2019 [1] - Total domestic tourism expenditure reached 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year, and 8.6% compared to 2019 [1] Hotel and Accommodation - High-star hotels in county areas saw a 73% increase in one-stop package bookings, with family-oriented bookings making up 33% [2] - The demand for high-end hotels and boutique accommodations has risen significantly during the holiday [3] Local and Cultural Tourism - Local and surrounding travel accounted for 64% of trips during the holiday, with a notable increase in demand for high-end hotels and vacation rentals [3] - Cultural heritage experiences related to the Dragon Boat Festival saw a 2.5 times increase in search volume for related keywords [3] Consumer Market Performance - Key retail sectors in Beijing achieved sales of 4.18 billion yuan during the holiday, a 1.6% increase year-on-year [4] - The restaurant sector in Beijing experienced nearly a 10% growth in consumption during the holiday [4] Inbound Tourism - A total of 5.907 million people crossed borders during the holiday, marking a 2.7% increase year-on-year [3] - Inbound tourism orders saw a nearly 90% increase compared to the previous year [3]

Group 1: Strategy Insights - The main impact of interim dividends is to smooth rather than enhance dividend yields [3] - Statistical methods cause disturbances in the dividend yield due to interim dividends [3] - A horizontally comparable dividend yield indicator is constructed [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Policy Events - A-shares experienced fluctuations due to Trump's tariffs, with a slight decline in risk appetite and high emotional volatility [3] - Global equities mostly rose, with Japan and South Korea leading the gains [3] - Major assets like oil and gold saw price declines, while the China-US interest rate spread slightly expanded [3] Group 3: June Strategy and Stock Recommendations - Focus on leading consumer companies such as Pop Mart and growth-oriented energy firms like China Qinfa [5] - Attention to AI for Science leaders like Jingtai Holdings and internet/hardware companies benefiting from AI development, such as Xiaomi [5] - Recommendations include new energy vehicle companies like Li Auto, Leap Motor, and Xpeng, as well as strong component manufacturers like Q Technology and Sunny Optical [5] Group 4: Real Estate Market Insights - New home transactions decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 8.9% [18] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate sector, emphasizing the importance of policy-driven dynamics [18] - Key investment targets include major state-owned enterprises and quality private firms in first and second-tier cities [18] Group 5: Chemical Industry Developments - The emergence of a new super insulation material developed through AI, significantly improving performance and reducing costs compared to traditional aerogels [12][13] - The super insulation material has potential applications in construction insulation and battery safety, opening up a market worth billions [15] - Companies like Zhite New Materials are positioned to capitalize on this innovation, leveraging existing channels for rapid commercialization [16] Group 6: Nitrocotton Market Analysis - Continuous and significant contraction in nitrocotton supply due to production halts and accidents, with a total capacity reduction of 42,000 tons from 2023 to 2025 [19][20] - Demand for nitrocotton is primarily driven by the civilian sector, with low price sensitivity due to its minimal cost impact on end products [19] - The market is expected to consolidate around state-owned enterprises, with North Chemical being a key player [23]

Investment Strategy - The report suggests gradually increasing risk appetite for thematic trading as June approaches, noting that thematic trading often performs well in June, with high market attention on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and IP economy [2][8] - The trading strategy is shifting from focusing on individual stocks with unexpected performance to high-growth industries, recommending attention to sectors such as feed, motorcycles, plastics, animal health, and batteries [2][8] June Stock Recommendations 1. **Yinlong Co., Ltd. (603969.SH)**: Expected to achieve over 30% compound annual growth in profits over the next 2-3 years due to the high-end trend in prestressed materials and strong order visibility [9][10] 2. **Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH)**: Anticipated to enter a profit explosion phase, with significant increases in inventory and cash flow indicating strong demand for main chips [11][12] 3. **Yanjing Beer (000729.SH)**: The main product U8 is expected to maintain over 30% growth, supported by seasonal demand and improved market conditions [17][18] 4. **Xintian Green Energy (600956.SH)**: Projected revenue growth driven by stable wind power generation and ongoing expansion in natural gas operations [19][20] 5. **Huaneng International (600011.SH)**: Expected profit growth due to reduced fuel costs and ongoing expansion in renewable energy capacity [23][24] 6. **Salted Fish (002847.SZ)**: Anticipated revenue growth from successful product launches in the konjac category and effective channel expansion strategies [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency fundamental data from May 26th to May 30th, 2025, showing that the overall fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in various sub - indicators such as production, demand, prices, and financing [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.9 points (previous value: 125.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points (previous value: 4.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate rebounds. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is long, with a signal factor of 5.8% (previous value: 6.3%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Polyester Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.4 (previous value: 125.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points (previous value: 4.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate is 65.4% (previous value: 66.0%), and the polyester operating rate is 90.9% (previous value: 93.3%) [1][13]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Year - on - Year Remain Negative - The real estate sales high - frequency index is 44.8 (previous value: 44.9), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6 points (previous value: 6.6 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 31.0 million square meters (previous value: 27.7 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 10.1% (previous value: 1.2%) [1][24]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Continues to Decline - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.9 (previous value: 117.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 points (previous value: 0.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 27.7% (previous value: 30.8%) [1][40]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Rise - The export high - frequency index is 144.4 (previous value: 144.5), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 6.5 points (previous value: 6.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The CCFI index is 1118 points (previous value: 1107 points), and the export price index of Yiwu small commodities is 108 points (previous value: 104 points) [1][42]. 3.6 Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturer Retail Sales Rebound - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.3 (previous value: 119.4), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 points (previous value: 1.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Passenger car manufacturer retail sales are 60,823 units (previous value: 51,175 units), and wholesale sales are 75,923 units (previous value: 56,286 units) [1][54]. 3.7 CPI: Pork Prices Continue to Fall - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of pork is 20.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.8 yuan/kg) [1][63]. 3.8 PPI: Rebar Prices Continue to Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.2% (previous value: - 0.3%). The settlement price of rebar futures is 3,237 yuan/ton (previous value: 3,299 yuan/ton) [1][69]. 3.9 Transportation: Both Passenger Transport and Flights Decline - The transportation high - frequency index is 127.6 (previous value: 127.4), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.0 points (previous value: 7.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate increases. The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 38.53 million person - times (previous value: 38.66 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 12,682 flights (previous value: 12,744 flights) [2][81]. 3.10 Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.1 (previous value: 160.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.9 points (previous value: 9.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The soda ash inventory is 161.3 million tons (previous value: 167.7 million tons) [2][86]. 3.11 Financing: 6M National - Share Banker's Acceptance Bill Rediscount Rate Rebounds - The financing high - frequency index is 227.9 (previous value: 227.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 29.1 points (previous value: 29.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The 6M national - share banker's acceptance bill rediscount rate is 1.10% (previous value: 1.08%) [2][98].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: AIAE Indicator for A-shares - **Model Construction Idea**: The AIAE indicator is used to measure the relative valuation of A-shares by comparing the total market capitalization of the CSI All Share Index with the sum of the total market capitalization and total entity debt[10] - **Model Construction Process**: The formula for the AIAE indicator is: $ AIAE = \frac{\text{CSI All Share Total Market Cap}}{\text{CSI All Share Total Market Cap} + \text{Total Entity Debt}} $ As of the end of May, the AIAE indicator for A-shares was 16%, which is at the 35th percentile since 2010, indicating relatively high valuation attractiveness[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator suggests that A-shares still have high payoff potential, though the win rate remains moderate due to macroeconomic uncertainties[10] 2. Model Name: Bond Payoff Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This indicator is derived from the expected return spread between long-term and short-term bonds to assess the valuation risk of bonds[11] - **Model Construction Process**: The bond payoff indicator is calculated based on the expected return difference between long-term and short-term bonds. Currently, the indicator is at -2.1 standard deviations, indicating extremely low valuation levels and potential risks in long-term bonds[11] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator highlights valuation risks in long-term bonds, though the win rate has improved due to monetary easing and weak credit conditions[11] 3. Model Name: Federal Reserve Liquidity Index - **Model Construction Idea**: This index combines quantity and price dimensions to measure the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve[18] - **Model Construction Process**: The Federal Reserve Liquidity Index is constructed by integrating multiple factors, including net liquidity, credit support, market expectations, and announcement surprises. Currently, the index is at the 20th percentile, indicating relatively loose liquidity conditions[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The index suggests that liquidity conditions are supportive, but potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy could alter the outlook[18] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Quality Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The quality factor is evaluated based on its payoff, trend, and crowding levels, with a focus on long-term stability[19] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Payoff: Currently at 1.3 standard deviations, indicating attractive valuation - Trend: At -0.3 standard deviations, suggesting moderate momentum - Crowding: At -0.8 standard deviations, reflecting low crowding levels The comprehensive score for the quality factor is 2.4, making it a high-priority allocation[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is attractive for long-term investment due to its favorable valuation and low crowding[19] 2. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The growth factor is assessed based on its valuation, trend, and crowding, with a focus on growth potential[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Payoff: At -1.9 standard deviations, indicating low valuation attractiveness - Trend: At 0.4 standard deviations, suggesting moderate momentum - Crowding: At 0.3 standard deviations, reflecting moderate crowding The comprehensive score for the growth factor is -1.6, indicating low allocation value[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is less attractive due to its low valuation and moderate crowding[21] 3. Factor Name: Dividend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The dividend factor is evaluated for its income-generating potential and stability[24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Payoff: At 0.02 standard deviations, indicating neutral valuation - Trend: At -1.8 standard deviations, suggesting weak momentum - Crowding: At -1.2 standard deviations, reflecting low crowding The comprehensive score for the dividend factor is 0, indicating no significant allocation value[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor lacks strong investment appeal due to weak momentum and neutral valuation[24] 4. Factor Name: Small-cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The small-cap factor is assessed for its potential to outperform based on size and market dynamics[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Payoff: At -0.3 standard deviations, indicating neutral valuation - Trend: At 0.4 standard deviations, suggesting moderate momentum - Crowding: At 0.5 standard deviations, reflecting moderate crowding The comprehensive score for the small-cap factor is 0, indicating high uncertainty[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is not recommended due to its high uncertainty and moderate crowding[26] --- Backtesting Results for Models 1. AIAE Indicator for A-shares - Current value: 16% - Percentile since 2010: 35%[10] 2. Bond Payoff Indicator - Current value: -2.1 standard deviations[11] 3. Federal Reserve Liquidity Index - Current value: 20th percentile[18] --- Backtesting Results for Factors 1. Quality Factor - Payoff: 1.3 standard deviations - Trend: -0.3 standard deviations - Crowding: -0.8 standard deviations - Comprehensive Score: 2.4[19] 2. Growth Factor - Payoff: -1.9 standard deviations - Trend: 0.4 standard deviations - Crowding: 0.3 standard deviations - Comprehensive Score: -1.6[21] 3. Dividend Factor - Payoff: 0.02 standard deviations - Trend: -1.8 standard deviations - Crowding: -1.2 standard deviations - Comprehensive Score: 0[24] 4. Small-cap Factor - Payoff: -0.3 standard deviations - Trend: 0.4 standard deviations - Crowding: 0.5 standard deviations - Comprehensive Score: 0[26]

Recent Key Events - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was illegal, leading to a significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. [1][8] - Tesla plans to launch its fully autonomous taxi service, Robotaxi, in Austin, Texas, on June 12, 2025, with an initial fleet of about 10 vehicles [2][9] - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18 to 19, focusing on financial cooperation and high-quality development amid global economic changes [2][9] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index rose from 22,119 points at the end of April to 23,290 points at the end of May, marking a 5.3% increase [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased from 5,087 points to 5,170 points, a rise of 1.6% [11] - In May, net inflows from southbound funds amounted to 45.6 billion HKD, with a decrease in net inflows over the past 30 trading days [12] Current Investment Recommendations - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: Achieved a 165%-170% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with overseas revenue increasing by 475%-480% [22][24] - **China Qinfa (0866.HK)**: Improved balance sheet with a net profit increase of 150.5% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to loan restructuring [27][30] - **Jingtai Holdings (2228.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in AI for Science, with significant growth potential in the trillion-dollar market [33][34] - **Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK)**: Reported a 47.4% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, reaching a record high of 111.3 billion CNY [37][39] - **Li Auto-W (2015.HK)**: Anticipates the launch of its first pure electric SUV, i8, in July 2025, with a projected delivery of 12.3-12.8 million vehicles in Q2 [41][42] - **Leap Motor (9863.HK)**: Achieved a 187.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a focus on expanding its product lineup and international presence [46][48]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 01 年 月 日 量化分析报告 流动性。本周货币强度、信用方向、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为-0.50 分，综合来看发出看空信号。 经济面。本周通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，增长方向发出看 空信号，当前经济面得分为 0.25 分，综合来看发出中性偏多信号。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标的分数变化不大，当前市场 的估值面得分为 0.31 分，综合来看发出中性偏多信号。 资金面。本周内资的两融增量与成交额趋势发出看空信号，外资的中国 主权 CDS 利差与海外风险厌恶指数识别为下降，外资流入意愿发出看多 信号。可见资金面当前为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 技术面。本周衡量中长期动量的价格趋势指标信号中性，代表反转的新 高新低指标发出看空信号，技术面当前为-0.50 分，综合来看发出看空信 号。 拥挤度。衍生品指标中的隐含升贴水、SKEW 本周发出看多信号，VIX 无信号，可转债定价偏离度处于中性水平，可见目前拥挤度指标分数为 0.51 分，指标认为当前市场拥挤度偏低，综合来看发出 ...