Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 02 年 月 日 量化周报 市场下行空间有限 市场下行空间有限。节前（5.26-5.30），大盘横盘震荡，上证指数全周收 跌 0.03%。在此背景下，传媒确认日线级别上涨。当下，我们认为市场下 行空间有限，市场再次回到前期低点的概率基本不存在了。由于市场才刚 刚确认日线级别上涨，还有很多指数和板块没有确认，因此，我们认为市 场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，当下的市场调整不足为惧，投资者 可逆势布局。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证 成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出 了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 20 个行业处于周线级别上 涨中，且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚 开始，而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日，A 股景气指数为 20.81，相 比 2023 年底上升 15.38，当前处于上升周期中。 A 股情绪指数观察。当前 A 股情绪见底指数信号： ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 03 年 月 日 基础化工 硝化棉：怎么看，机会在哪里？ 硝化棉供给连续、大幅收缩，近期又生事故。2025 年 5 月 30 日，河北衡 水建民纤维素车间突发煮洗釜爆炸事故，影响硝化棉供给 9000 吨。 2013 年我国共有北化、台硝、雪飞等十余家硝化棉厂商，产量合计约 7.6 万吨，近年来供给连续大幅收缩：2023 年北化关停西安产线后产能减少 2.5 万吨、2024 年雪飞爆炸影响 2 万吨、2025 年建民爆炸影响 9000 吨。 下游成本不敏感，价格弹性可期。硝化棉应用领域包括： ·民用：美式涂装是美国仿古家具涂装方式的简称，这种家具目前在美国 市场占有相当大的比例。美式涂装用涂料目前主要以硝基漆为主，硝基漆 的主要特点为干燥快、易施工、抗刮性好、装饰性好。硝化棉是硝基漆的 主要成膜物质，由于硝基漆为低固含涂料，溶剂占比高达三分之二（一般 而言，涂料配方以树脂、助剂、颜填料为主，溶剂为辅），再加上美式涂装 家具售价高昂，硝化棉穿透到终端成本占比极低，价格不敏感； ·军用：硝化棉是人类在中国人发明黑火药之后学会制备的第二种炸药， 作 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 03 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W22：本周新房成交同比-11.9%，二手房同比+8.9% 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 218.2 万方，环比下降 6.8%，同比增长8.9%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为96.7 万方，环比 3.9%；样本二线城市为 93.9 万方，环比-15.6%；样本三线城 市为 27.6 万方，环比-7.5%。 信用债：根据 wind 统计数据，本周（5.26-6.1）共发行房企信用债 5 只， 环比增加 2 只；发行规模共计 53.10 亿元，环比增加 15.11 亿元，总偿还 量 91.45 亿元，环比减少 5.3 亿元，净融资额为-38.35 亿元，环比增加 20.41 亿元。主体评级方面，本周房企债券发行已披露的主体评级以 AAA （83.1%）为主要构成。债券类型方面，本周房企债券发行以一般中期票 据（81.0%）为主要构成。债券期限方面，本周以 1-3 年（81.0%）的债 券为主。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 0.9%，领先沪深 300 指 数 2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to support investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 0.9%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.03 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [10]. - New housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 2.41 million square meters, a 11.2% increase month-on-month but a 11.9% decrease year-on-year [21]. - Second-hand housing transactions in 14 sample cities amounted to 2.18 million square meters, a 6.8% decrease month-on-month but an 8.9% increase year-on-year [30]. Key City New and Second-Hand Housing Transaction Tracking - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 685,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 23.7% and a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [21]. - In second-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 1.08 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 13.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% [21]. - In third-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 641,000 square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [21]. Key Company Credit Bond Situation - During the week of May 26 to June 1, five credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 5.31 billion yuan, a 15.11 billion yuan increase from the previous week [42]. - The net financing amount was -3.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.41 billion yuan increase in net financing compared to the previous week [42]. - The majority of the bonds issued were rated AAA (83.1%) and primarily consisted of general medium-term notes (81.0%) [42].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI in May showed a seasonal rebound but remains in the contraction zone, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased [4] - Key signals include a rebound in supply and demand, an increase in import and export orders, and a slight decline in price indices, indicating ongoing pressure on prices [4] - The overall economic outlook suggests that internal demand issues remain prominent, with a need for policy intervention to support growth [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The market is currently experiencing limited downside potential, with the probability of returning to previous lows being negligible [5] - A mid-term bullish trend is confirmed across multiple indices, indicating the beginning of a new bull market phase [6] - Investors are encouraged to position themselves strategically during this market adjustment phase, as opportunities are expected to arise [6] Group 3: Fixed Income Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, Jiangsu showed strong economic growth with a focus on debt reduction, while Guangdong faced economic adjustments due to global trade uncertainties [9][10] - The overall market environment is expected to improve post mid-June, with potential for interest rates to decline further, creating more opportunities in the bond market [11] - The central bank's actions are aimed at maintaining liquidity, with a stable performance in certificates of deposit [12] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The automotive sector is witnessing significant advancements, with the launch of the Huawei and JAC Motors' ZunJie S800, which has already seen strong pre-orders [19][20] - The smart driving industry is expected to enter a golden growth period, with increasing penetration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in new vehicles [21] - The stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong marks a significant step in financial innovation, benefiting various segments of the digital asset ecosystem [24] Group 5: Company Performance - Ideal Auto's Q1 2025 gross margin exceeded expectations, with projected sales and revenue growth for the next three years [31] - Xiaomi Group is expected to maintain strong revenue growth driven by core technology advancements, with significant contributions from its automotive segment [32] - Honglu Steel Structure is positioned for recovery with a notable increase in orders and production, benefiting from demand restoration and operational efficiencies [34]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the silver and tin mining sector, with significant growth potential driven by its extensive resource base and strategic acquisitions [1][2]. - The company has completed multiple rounds of resource expansion, enhancing its global footprint and operational capabilities [1][14]. - The current market conditions suggest that silver and tin prices are undervalued, with potential for recovery as industrial demand increases [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company has undergone three rounds of resource expansion since its listing, transitioning from a regional player in Inner Mongolia to a global mining entity [1][14]. - The company has successfully acquired several mining assets, including major silver and tin mines, which are expected to contribute significantly to its revenue [1][14]. Section 2: Mining Assets - The company holds three world-class silver mines, with substantial resources that position it among the top producers globally [1][2]. - Silverman Mining, the company's main operational asset, has a resource of 8,058 tons of silver with an average grade of 185g/t, while Yubang Mining holds 17,900 tons, ranking fifth globally [1][2]. - Future production capacity is projected to increase significantly, with a potential 2.7 times growth in ore processing capacity by 2025 [2]. Section 3: Market Conditions - Current market dynamics indicate that industrial metals, particularly silver and tin, are undervalued relative to gold, suggesting a potential price correction as manufacturing demand rebounds [2][3]. - The silver market is experiencing a persistent supply-demand gap, driven by increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to maintain upward pressure on prices [2][3]. - Tin supply remains unstable due to geopolitical factors, but demand is anticipated to rise due to the growth of the AI-driven semiconductor market [3]. Section 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are set at 5.86 billion, 6.68 billion, and 8.32 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.06 billion, 2.41 billion, and 3.13 billion yuan [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in profitability, with net profit growth rates projected at 34.6%, 17.2%, and 29.8% for the same years [4][27]. - The financial metrics indicate a strong improvement in profitability, with net profit margins expected to rise from 26% in 2023 to 37.6% by 2027 [4][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with the VLA model also expected to be released [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company plans to introduce more affordable MPV and sedan models based on market demand after the launch of the L series and i series [2]. - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for this version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The company is expanding its supercharging network, with 2,328 supercharging stations and 12,689 supercharging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. Sales and Production Forecast - The company expects to sell approximately 580,000, 750,000, and 870,000 vehicles in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to be around 19% in Q2 due to increased promotional efforts [2]. Valuation - The target market capitalization is set at 280.9 billion RMB, with a target price of approximately 131 HKD per share, corresponding to a 25x P/E ratio for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The smartphone segment regained the top market share in China, with a global shipment of 41.8 million units, a 3% increase year-on-year, and a global market share of 14.1% [1][3] - The IoT business is focusing on high-end and international expansion, with revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.2% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with the new SUV model YU7 expected to become a bestseller upon pricing announcement [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 486.7 billion yuan in 2025, 634.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 764.8 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 21% respectively [3][5] - Adjusted net profit for the main consumer electronics business is expected to be 41.9 billion yuan in 2025, 52.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 61.1 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 18% respectively [3][5] - The report anticipates a significant increase in automotive adjusted net profit, projecting a turnaround to 10.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.6 billion yuan in 2027 [3][5] Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue, adjusted net profit, and earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023 to 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][13] - The expected adjusted EPS is projected to be 1.6 yuan in 2025, 2.4 yuan in 2026, and 3.1 yuan in 2027 [3][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 29 in 2025 to 15 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with a subsequent model, i6, expected in September [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Product Development - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for the Home version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The VLA model, which enhances the driving experience through advanced AI, is set to be released alongside the i8 in July [4]. Market Position - The company has established a robust supercharging network with 2,328 stations and 12,689 charging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. - The company aims to introduce more competitively priced MPVs and sedans based on market demand after the launch of its L series and i series models [2].