Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 40.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 4.03 billion yuan, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1] - The growth in Q3 was driven by increased revenue from energy-saving products for server rooms and cabinets, despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 11% due to revenue recognition timing [2] - The company is positioned strongly in the liquid cooling market, with comprehensive product offerings and recognition from major players like Intel and Google, indicating a robust competitive advantage [3][11] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 6.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.1%, and net profits of 603 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 33.2% [12] - The overall gross margin for the company is reported at 29.4%, with a net profit margin of 12.9%, both showing quarter-on-quarter improvements [2] - The company’s inventory has increased to 1.23 billion yuan, up 39% year-on-year, indicating a strong order backlog and project reserves [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The liquid cooling industry is expected to become increasingly complex, with a shift towards integrated solutions that require collaboration among various stakeholders [4] - Companies with comprehensive solution capabilities will have a competitive edge, as clients increasingly rely on pre-sales design and post-sales operations [5] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for liquid cooling solutions, particularly in the context of rising energy consumption in AI clusters [11]

Group 1: Macro Insights - In September, exports increased significantly, reaching a six-month high, indicating the resilience of China's export sector. The export growth rate for Q3 was 6.5%, slightly higher than in Q1 and Q2, supporting the GDP growth target of "above 5%" for the year [2] - Imports surged by 7.4% year-on-year in September, marking the highest increase in a year and a half, with industrial metals like copper and iron ore, as well as integrated circuits, being the main drivers [2] - Looking ahead to Q4, export growth may slow due to high base effects and recent escalations in US-China tariffs, but it is expected to remain positive overall, with strong support from regions outside the US [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Duople (301528.SZ) is a leading domestic provider of ultrasonic phased array testing equipment, showing strong profitability with H1 2025 revenue of 80 million yuan, up 56.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, up 12.15% [6][7] - Kaishan (300257.SZ) is a leader in high-end equipment manufacturing and renewable energy, with a revenue of 4.235 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.64% increase, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, down 26.05% [8] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) reported strong Q3 performance with a 10% increase in adult and children's apparel sales in offline channels and a 20% increase in e-commerce sales, projecting net profits of 1.261 billion yuan for 2025 [14] - Xingyu (601799.SH) established a robotics subsidiary to expand into the emerging robotics sector, while maintaining strong growth in its core automotive lighting business, with a projected net profit of 1.7 billion yuan for 2025 [16][17] Group 3: Industry Trends - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a configuration opportunity, with a significant adjustment in the index from a peak of 9565.18 points to a low of 3876.11 points, a cumulative decline of 59.5% [12] - Strategic metals are expected to see a revaluation due to geopolitical tensions, with a focus on rare earths, tungsten, and antimony as potential investment opportunities [9][11] - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to grow, with East Sunshine's acquisition of Qinhuai Data expected to enhance its capabilities in AI infrastructure and cooling solutions [13]

Company Overview - The report rates the company as "Buy" for the first time, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4] - The company, Kaishan Holdings, is a leader in the compressor and geothermal power sectors, focusing on high-end equipment manufacturing and renewable energy development [1][11] - The company has a comprehensive compressor product line and is a domestic leader in the air compressor industry, while also extending its geothermal power business through innovative technologies [1][20] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.235 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, down 26.05% year-on-year [1][5] - The net profit margin for 2024 is approximately 7.66% [1] - The company expects to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projections of 4.09 billion yuan, 6.38 billion yuan, and 9.50 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.8%, 55.8%, and 48.9% [3][5] Industry Overview - The geothermal power industry is projected to see a decrease in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to 0.06 USD/kWh by 2024, which is expected to open up further growth opportunities in the global geothermal power market [2][41] - The global installed capacity of geothermal power plants is expected to grow from 15.4 GW in 2019 to 16.87 GW in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.84% [2][41] - Indonesia is highlighted as having the largest geothermal potential globally, with only about 2% of its potential geothermal energy currently being utilized [2][42] Business Segments - The company's compressor segment generated revenue of 2.902 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 68.53% of total revenue, with a stable gross margin of around 30% [23][29] - The geothermal power segment reported revenue of 798 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.23%, contributing 18.84% to total revenue, with a gross margin exceeding 49% [23][29] - Other business segments, including compressor accessories and vacuum systems, generated revenue of 535 million yuan, accounting for 12.63% of total revenue [23][29] Global Expansion - The company is actively pursuing a global strategy, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 44.95% of total revenue in 2024, driven by its compressor and geothermal power businesses [25][31] - The company has established new sales offices in cities like Seoul, Bangkok, and Mexico City, and is constructing a third overseas factory in Turkey [25][31] Future Outlook - The company has seven operational geothermal power projects with a total capacity of 215.5 MW and eight projects under construction with a capacity of approximately 191 MW, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [3][29] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in both the compressor and geothermal segments, supported by technological advancements and increasing global demand for renewable energy solutions [3][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from October 6th to October 10th, 2025. The national high - frequency fundamental index shows an expanding year - on - year increase, while the bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged. Different sectors have different trends, such as a slight decline in real - estate sales, an expanding increase in infrastructure investment, etc. [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Total Index - The national high - frequency fundamental index is 128.1 points (previous value: 128.0 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.9 points (previous increase: 5.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.0%). [1][8][9] Production - The high - frequency industrial production index is 127.3 (previous value: 127.2), with a year - on - year increase of 5.5 points (previous increase: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The electric - furnace operating rate slightly declined, with the current rate at 59.6% (previous value: 60.3%). [1][8][14] Real - Estate Sales - The high - frequency real - estate sales index is 42.3 (previous value: 42.4), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 points (previous decrease: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The land premium rate of large and medium - sized cities increased, with the current rate at 4.8% (previous value: 1.9%), while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased to 11.4 million square meters (previous value: 25.7 million square meters). [1][9][22] Infrastructure Investment - The high - frequency infrastructure investment index is 121.8 (previous value: 121.5), with a year - on - year increase of 8.1 points (previous increase: 7.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average pig - iron output slightly declined to 241.5 tons (previous value: 241.8 tons). [1][9][36] Export - The high - frequency export index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 1.6 points (previous increase: 1.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index continued to decline to 1015 points (previous value: 1087 points), and the RJ/CRB index decreased to 299.3 points (previous value: 300.3 points). [1][9][39] Consumption - The high - frequency consumption index is 120.6 (previous value: 120.5), with a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous increase: 3.5 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average box office of movies slightly declined to 14,803 million yuan (previous value: 15,858 million yuan). [1][9][50] CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast remains at 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%). The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline to 18.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 19.3 yuan/kg). [2][9][57] PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%). The crude - oil price slightly declined, with the Brent crude - oil futures settlement price at 65 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 66 US dollars/barrel), while the copper and aluminum prices continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price is 10,718 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10,358 US dollars/ton), and the LME aluminum spot settlement price is 2,753 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,685 US dollars/ton). [2][9][60] Transportation - The high - frequency transportation index is 131.5 (previous value: 131.3), with a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points (previous increase: 9.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined to 3,097 million person - times (previous value: 3,550 million person - times). [2][9][72] Inventory - The high - frequency inventory index is 162.4 (previous value: 162.3), with a year - on - year increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.6 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic - aluminum inventory declined to 13.6 million tons (previous value: 18.8 million tons). [2][9][78] Financing - The high - frequency financing index is 239.2 (previous value: 238.6), with a year - on - year increase of 30.2 points (previous increase: 30.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The net financing of local government bonds is negative, with a value of - 246 billion yuan (previous value: 632 billion yuan). [2][9][89]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit market is experiencing a compression of credit spreads, with institutions favoring short- to medium-term credit bonds due to significant adjustments in long-term bonds [1][10][15] - The overall market sentiment has been influenced by the recent stock market performance, which has increased risk appetite, alongside regulatory impacts that have led to ongoing adjustments in the bond market [2][17] - The report anticipates that the bond market will gradually enter a recovery phase in the fourth quarter, driven by fundamental factors and a potential easing of liquidity conditions [2][17] Group 2 - Seasonal factors suggest that the bond market typically experiences neutral fluctuations in October, with a smoother downward trend expected after December [3][19] - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds ETFs has seen limited growth in scale and lower trading activity compared to the initial batch, although the excess spread remains stable [4][24] - The current steep yield curve for credit bonds indicates that long-term credit yields are relatively high, with specific advantages noted for certain types of bonds, such as secondary capital bonds [5][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the small metals industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The strategic small metals are expected to undergo a value reassessment due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, leading to price increases and improved profitability for companies in this sector [2][3]. - The strategic value of small metals arises from their irreplaceable applications in AI, military, and semiconductor industries, making them critical for advanced technologies [2]. - The investment logic for strategic small metals includes fundamental drivers from supply disruptions and valuation logic based on sustained high price expectations [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the small metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Strategic Value of Small Metals - The report highlights that small metals like germanium, gallium, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths are gaining strategic value due to China's supply dominance and their essential roles in high-tech applications [2]. - The geopolitical landscape has led to supply quotas and export controls, enhancing the scarcity and strategic importance of these metals [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the strategic metals sector, including: - Rare Earths: China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, Jien Nickel, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [3]. - Antimony: Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [3]. - Tungsten: Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, Jiaxin International, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Anyuan Coal [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that small metals have shown resilience in the market, with significant price increases observed in response to external market movements, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards these strategic assets [3].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 10 12 年 月 日 风格上，当前价值因子占优。从纯因子收益来看，本周有色金属、钢铁、 国防军工等行业因子相对市场市值加权组合跑出较高超额收益，消费 者服务、银行等行业因子回撤较多；风格因子中，价值因子超额收益较 高，Beta、残差波动率呈较为显著的负向超额收益。从近期因子表现来 看，高杠杆、高成长股表现优异，残差波动率、价值等因子表现不佳。 风险提示：量化周报观点全部基于历史统计与量化模型，存在历史规律与 量化模型失效的风险。 作者 分析师 刘富兵 执业证书编号：S0680518030007 邮箱：liufubing@gszq.com 分析师 林志朋 执业证书编号：S0680518100004 邮箱：linzhipeng@gszq.com 分析师 沈芷琦 执业证书编号：S0680521120005 邮箱：shenzhiqi@gszq.com 分析师 梁思涵 执业证书编号：S0680522070006 邮箱：liangsihan@gszq.com 分析师 张国安 执业证书编号：S0680524060003 量化周报 创业板、科创 50 短期内或 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Dongyangguang [5] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a configuration opportunity, with the index having adjusted from a high of 9565.18 points to a low of 3876.11 points, a cumulative decline of 59.5% from September 2021 to February 2024. The sector has shown a strong performance with a cumulative increase of 20.9% from July 11 to October 10 [1][3] - Dongyangguang's strategic acquisition of Qinhuai Data is expected to enhance its capabilities in AI infrastructure and cooling solutions, positioning the company to leverage high-performance computing demands [2][7] - The integration of Qinhuai Data is anticipated to facilitate a transition from single product offerings to ecosystem development, enhancing collaboration across multiple dimensions [2] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The basic chemical sector has seen a continuous decline in construction project growth rates, with a negative growth rate of -7.3% expected by Q1 2025. However, the sector is currently experiencing a resurgence due to a trend against excessive competition [1] - The report highlights the increasing importance of liquid cooling solutions in the context of AI infrastructure development, with Dongyangguang positioned as a leading player in the fluorochemical industry [7] Company Analysis - Dongyangguang is projected to achieve an EBITDA close to 4 billion RMB by 2025 following the acquisition of Qinhuai Data, which will provide access to major internet clients and enhance its market presence [2] - The company is focusing on developing comprehensive cooling solutions and energy management systems, leveraging its expertise in capacitors and strategic partnerships [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent escalation of tariffs between China and the US is likely a strategic move by the US to gain leverage ahead of the upcoming high-level talks at the end of October, suggesting that significant tariff increases are unlikely [4] - The report indicates that the current economic slowdown in China may lead to increased policy support in the fourth quarter, with risk assets like stocks expected to face pressure, while safe-haven assets like gold may benefit [4] - The report notes that the recent market rally has seen major indices and sectors experience a 30% increase since April, but warns that the upward trend may be nearing its end, with a potential for market consolidation [5] Group 2 - The banking sector is seeing an increase in mid-term dividend distributions, with state-owned banks expected to distribute over 200 billion yuan in dividends, reflecting their stable profitability and capital adequacy [18][20] - The report emphasizes that the expansion of bond ETFs is expected to continue, driven by regulatory changes that favor their growth, indicating a significant shift in the bond market dynamics [14][15] - The report discusses the performance of various sectors, noting that the non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong growth, with a 65.8% increase over the past year, while the coal sector has underperformed with an 8.3% decline [2] Group 3 - The report highlights the increasing importance of the renewable energy sector, particularly in wind and solar, with utilization rates exceeding 96% in August, suggesting a robust growth outlook for these industries [35] - The report indicates that the textile and apparel sector is facing challenges, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong operational resilience, particularly in the sportswear segment [29] - The report notes that the coal market is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints, with production having declined in recent months, indicating a potential for higher coal prices by year-end [31][32] Group 4 - The report discusses the regulatory environment for the construction materials sector, emphasizing the need for price stability and the potential for supply-side adjustments in cement and glass industries [48] - The report indicates that the real estate investment trust (REITs) market is under pressure, but highlights opportunities in high-quality projects that can benefit from policy support and market recovery [37] - The report mentions the potential for significant growth in the satellite communication sector due to recent acquisitions, with expectations for substantial profit increases in the coming years [25]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in Shenzhen's transportation planning and is transitioning into a comprehensive smart transportation service provider, with significant growth in its smart transportation business [1][4]. - The low-altitude economy is expected to see rapid growth due to supportive policies, with infrastructure demand anticipated to increase significantly [2][3]. - The company is deeply involved in the low-altitude construction in Shenzhen, establishing a complete "investment-construction-operation" industrial chain [3]. - The "Vehicle-Road-Cloud" initiative is gaining momentum, with expected industry growth and the company launching various smart transportation applications [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as Shenzhen Urban Transportation Center in 1993, has undergone several transformations, becoming a state-owned enterprise in 2006 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2021 [14]. - It has shifted focus towards smart transportation services, with a significant increase in the revenue contribution from this sector, rising from 7% in 2017 to 56% in 2024 [18]. Low-Altitude Industry Participation - The company is a core participant in Shenzhen's low-altitude industry, with over 70% of its revenue generated from this region [3]. - It has been involved in formulating national standards and has developed the first intelligent integrated low-altitude system in the country [3]. Vehicle-Road-Cloud Development - The "Vehicle-Road-Cloud" initiative is projected to reach a total industry output value of 2.6 trillion yuan by 2030, with the company launching the first city-level vehicle-road-cloud platform in Shenzhen [4]. Financial Analysis and Forecast - The company is expected to see a recovery in its financial performance, with projected net profits of 106 million yuan in 2025, 115 million yuan in 2026, and 123 million yuan in 2027 [4]. - The company has experienced a decline in traditional planning and design demand, but new business contracts have surged, indicating a potential stabilization in revenue [22][24].