[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Jun 2025 美国消费行业 5 月跟踪报告：多扰动因素仍在，不确定性难消 Multiple disturbance factors are still present, and uncertainty is also present 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen 肖韦俐 Weili Xiao hongwei.wen@htisec.com wl.xiao@htisec.com [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：抢购潮消退，短期数据回归平稳。（1）整体： 抢购潮消退，信心指数短期反弹。2025 年 5 月美国零售销售 数据为 7154.2 亿美元，环比下降 0.9%，超市场预期的 0.7%降幅。5 月特朗普关税政策部分暂停后，抢购潮消退， 需求回归常态，导致耐用品销售下滑较多。美国 6 月密歇根消费者信心指数升至 60.5，较 5 月的 52.2 大幅增长 15.9%，远超市场预期的 54。关税政策调整，通胀预期缓和，消费者情绪短期恢复。（2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Gujing Distillery Company has been upgraded to OUTPERFORM [2]. Core Views - The baijiu industry maintains its rigid demand attributes, with long-term strategies focused on creating high-quality famous baijiu. Despite facing cyclical adjustments, the social and cultural significance of baijiu ensures its essential demand [3][12]. - The company plans to optimize its product structure and enhance its high-end offerings to capture the upgrading consumer demographic while reinforcing the banquet attributes of its products [3][12]. - Historical revenue and profit performance have been strong, with total revenue and net profit growth rates exceeding 20% from 2021 to 2023. Although growth is expected to slow in 2024, the company remains a leader in the industry [3][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are Rmb 23.58 billion, Rmb 24.15 billion, Rmb 25.43 billion, and Rmb 26.79 billion, respectively, with a growth rate of 16% in 2024 [2][10]. - Net profit is expected to be Rmb 5.52 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 20% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable around 79.9% to 79.6% from 2024 to 2027 [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to maintain a revenue share of over 60% in its home province of Anhui while expanding its market presence in key regions such as Henan and Jiangsu [4][15]. - The focus will be on consolidating its market position in Anhui and gradually expanding to other provinces using a targeted approach [4][15]. Dividend and Valuation - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 57.5%, with a projected increase to over 70% in 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield exceeding 5.4% [5][16]. - The target price for the company is set at Rmb 191, based on a P/E ratio of 18x for 2025 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, recommending attention to high-performance structural component manufacturers and defense contractors [5]. Core Insights - The AI technology giants are adjusting their investment pace in data centers, with Microsoft delaying some early projects but expected to resume construction after the fiscal year ends, potentially driving demand in 2025 [2][15]. - The U.S. gas turbine price index increased by 5.3% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a stable demand in the industrial sector [3][56]. - The 55th Paris Air Show highlighted a strong recovery in the commercial aviation market, with significant orders reflecting the industry's resilience [23][24]. Summary by Sections Data Centers - Major cloud service providers are adjusting their investment strategies, with Microsoft and Amazon accelerating procurement for large clients while Google increases its hosting expenditures [15]. Energy Construction - Michigan regulators are pushing for reliability improvements from Consumers Energy and DTE Electric, emphasizing the need for better vegetation management and equipment replacement [19][20]. - The UK government announced a £14.2 billion investment in a nuclear power plant to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, with a capacity of 3.2GW [21]. Aerospace - The Paris Air Show showcased advancements in military aircraft and green aviation technologies, with a focus on sustainable solutions [23][24]. - The U.S. aircraft engine manufacturing price index remained stable, reflecting consistent demand in the aerospace sector [25][28]. Defense - The report notes significant defense contracts, including the potential $175 billion "Golden Dome" missile defense system, which could become one of the largest defense contracts globally [33][34]. - The EU's new defense funding plan aims to streamline investment rules to enhance member states' defense capabilities by 2030 [33]. Robotics - The global installation of industrial robots in 2023 was 541,302 units, a slight decrease from the previous year, with the automotive sector regaining its position as the largest customer [36][42]. - The U.S. mechanical manufacturing price index showed a modest increase, indicating stable market conditions for industrial equipment [37]. Industrial Equipment - The price index for electric motors and generators in the U.S. rose by 2.5% month-on-month in May 2025, reflecting increased production costs [43]. - China's transformer exports reached 45.8 billion yuan in April 2025, marking a 34% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand in international markets [65].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Great Wall Motor, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Viewpoints - Great Wall Motor emphasizes a long-term strategy focused on building a high-value vehicle portfolio for global expansion, prioritizing product and service reliability over rapid growth [2][7]. - The company aims to deepen its multi-powertrain platform strategy, promoting "one vehicle, multiple powertrains" to cater to diverse market needs, especially in regions with limited electricity infrastructure [2][8]. - In 2024, Great Wall anticipates vehicle sales of 1.23 million units, a 0.4% year-on-year increase, with revenue projected at RMB 202.2 billion, reflecting a 16.7% growth, and net profit expected to reach RMB 12.69 billion, marking an 80.8% increase [2][7]. - The company's globalization strategy focuses on "ecological overseas expansion," with over 1,400 overseas sales channels and cumulative exports surpassing 1.9 million units, targeting over one million units in overseas sales by 2030 [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Strategy - Great Wall Motor reaffirms its commitment to long-termism, aiming for high-quality market share and product reliability, even at the cost of slower growth [2][7]. - The company plans to launch several key models in 2025, including the Tank SUV for urban markets, alongside expanding its product matrix with WEY, Haval, ORA, and pickup series [2][8]. Performance Metrics - In 2024, Great Wall expects to achieve vehicle sales of 1.23 million units, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, with revenue projected at RMB 202.2 billion, up 16.7%, and net profit anticipated at RMB 12.69 billion, an increase of 80.8% [2][7]. Brand Development - WEY, as a key brand in Great Wall's premium strategy, has shown significant growth, with May sales reaching 6,161 units, a 115.3% year-on-year increase, and cumulative deliveries of 24,297 units in the first five months, up 44% [3][9]. - The brand is enhancing its product and design competitiveness through increased R&D and marketing investments, and is expected to drive growth through product diversification and ecological globalization [3][10].

AI 赋能钢铁革新，工业机器人落地生根 宝信软件(600845) ——宝信软件（600845.SH）报告 股票研究/ [Table_Date] 2025.06.19 计算机 [Table_Industry] /信息科技 [Table_Invest] 评级 增持 本报告导读： 公司作为工业软件行业龙头，大力推动 AI 赋能钢铁产业革新，自研平台构建自主可 控工业软件体系，随着工业级机器人应用端落地生根，看好公司长期发展。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 目标价格 33.64 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 24.76 [Table_Market] 交易数据 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 12,916 | 13,644 | 14,738 | 16,347 | 18,368 | | (+/-)% | -1.8% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 12.4% | | 净利润（ ...

Investment Rating - Rating: Outperform [1] - Target Price: RMB 114.94 [1] Core Insights - The company focuses on AI and cloud computing, with both sectors contributing nearly half of its revenue. The launch of the AICP platform and products like XaaS and security GPT are key developments [1][5] - The company is expected to maintain growth driven by increased demand for cloud services and a turning point in cybersecurity, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at RMB 0.77, RMB 1.18, and RMB 1.54 respectively [5][15] - The report highlights a recovery in growth for Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year revenue increases and a focus on enhancing product quality and innovation [5][16] Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a slight decline in 2024 to RMB 7.52 billion, followed by growth to RMB 8.08 billion in 2025, and reaching RMB 10.07 billion by 2027 [3][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase significantly from RMB 197 million in 2024 to RMB 649 million by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][6] - The company’s gross profit margins for security and cloud services are 79.31% and 44.24% respectively, indicating robust profitability in these segments [5][17] Strategic Focus - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in XaaS and AI, while also expanding its market reach to key industry clients and overseas markets [5][19] - Future strategies include focusing on key production lines, promoting innovation in AI and cybersecurity, and strengthening organizational capabilities [5][20] - The company aims to deepen its channel system and improve management efficiency to boost profitability over the next 3-5 years [5][20]

首次覆盖: 困境反转初显，AI 调解多元解纷正放量 金桥信息(603918) ——金桥信息（603918.SH）首次覆盖报告 本报告导读： 公司作为国内数字化科技的行业领先者，前瞻性布局法律金融科技板块，随着基本 盘业务反弹+AI 调解提效+多元解纷放量+法院合作深化，未来业绩增速有望超预期。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 932 | 699 | 941 | 1,153 | 1,377 | | (+/-)% | 7.9% | -25.0% | 34.6% | 22.5% | 19.4% | | 净利润（归母） | 26 | -61 | 26 | 99 | 169 | | (+/-)% | 42.8% | -337.5% | 142.9% | 279.2% | 70.7% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.07 | -0.17 | 0.07 | 0.27 | 0.46 | | 净资产收益率(%) | ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.12 2025-06-19 业绩保持高增，分布式、AI、云原生推 动公司产品迭代升级 公司跟踪报告 [Table_Balance] 本报告导读： 2024 年与 2025Q1 公司利润保持高增，能源、交通等领域出现较高增幅；分布式数 据库、AI 以及云原生推动公司产品升级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 风险提示：信创推进不及预期；产品迭代不及预期；市场竞争加剧。 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 794 | 1,044 | 1,315 | 1,650 | 2,064 | | (+/-)% | 15.4% | 31.5% | 25.9% | 25.5% | 25.1% | | 净利润（归母） | 296 | 362 | 490 | 607 | 751 | | (+/-)% | 10.1% | 22.2% | 35.3% | 23.9% | 23.8% ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.14 2025-06-19 360 发布纳米 AI 超级搜索智能体与两款 [Table_Industry] 计算机 本报告导读： 6 月 11 日，360 发布了国内首个"超级搜索智能体"——纳米 AI 超级搜索智能体；同 时 360 发布两款智能硬件：纳米 AI Note 和 Rokid 联名 AI 眼镜。 投资要点： 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 AI 硬件 AI 产业跟踪报告 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 APPENDIX 1 Summary Investment Highlights: Investment Advice: The release of 360 Search Intelligent Agent marks a new phase in search technology, moving from simple model-assisted search to autonomous thinking and execution. The launch of two AI hardware devi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating with a target price of RMB 72.75, reflecting the company's strong historical foundation and AI investment, alongside accelerating industrial AI applications and optimizing business models [4][26]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the industrial AI sector, leveraging over 100EB of industrial data from 100,000 control systems to enhance real-time industrial data capabilities. It integrates AI and robotics to drive automation and has launched innovative products like the UCS control system and TPT foundation models [4][26]. - The company has a stable growth trajectory in key industries, with a market share of 40.4% in the domestic DCS market, and is expanding into emerging sectors such as oil, gas, and Chinese baijiu [4][26]. - Internationally, the company has seen significant growth, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 749 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 118.27%, indicating enhanced global operational capabilities [4][26]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 103.14 billion, RMB 112.80 billion, and RMB 124.66 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB 12.72 billion, RMB 14.72 billion, and RMB 17.38 billion [11][13]. - The company anticipates EPS of RMB 1.61, RMB 1.86, and RMB 2.20 for the years 2025-2027, reflecting a gradual increase in profitability [11][16]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin trend, with expected gross margins of approximately 36% to 38% across various business segments by 2027 [10][14].